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The Pandemic Won’t Make China the World’s Leader
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The Pandemic Won’t Make China the World’s Leader
Few Countries Are Buying the Model or the Message From Beijing
by Michael Green and Evan S. Medeiros Early this year, as the novel coronavirus began to spread in China, the predictions were immediate and stark: the outbreak was China’s “Chernobyl moment,” perhaps even “the beginning of the end” for the Chinese Communist Party, with geopolitical consequences that, at a time of growing U.S.-Chinese tension, would play to Washington’s considerable advantage. But then, almost as quickly, the predictions went into reverse. As China appeared to contain the spread of the coronavirus while the United States and Western Europe suffered large outbreaks of their own, the pandemic and the resulting global recession were said to mark a geopolitical reordering that would leave China as the victor. Beijing certainly saw such an opportunity, launching an international campaign stressing the failures of democratic governance and casting itself as the leader of the global pandemic response.
A pedestrian walks by a bus stop screen showing a video clip of of Chinese president Xi Jinping wearing a protective mask on February 2020 ,29 in Shanghai, China. (Getty)
But it is doubtful that Beijing’s gambit will succeed in turning a pandemic that likely started in a Chinese city into a major step in China’s rise. There are real limits to China’s capacity to take advantage of the current crisis—whether through disingenuous propaganda or ineffective global action. And just as the potential for China to benefit from the coronavirus is too easily overstated, the ability of the United States to show global leadership even after its initial missteps is too easily discounted. As deeply flawed as Washington’s response to the pandemic has been so far, the United States’ power—distinct from any particular president—rests on an enduring combination of material capabilities and political legitimacy, and there are few signs that the pandemic is causing power to shift rapidly and permanently to China’s side of the ledger.
CHINESE PROPAGANDA
China’s initial propaganda offensive was stunningly aggressive, but it now appears clumsy and unlikely to work. The Chinese Communist Party’s narrative is limited by the simple fact that too many people know about the outbreak’s origins in Wuhan and Beijing’s bungled initial response—in particular, its efforts to suppress information and silence many of the doctors who first warned of the emergence of a dangerous new virus. In the face of calls for greater transparency, Beijing ejected American journalists working for The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal. On Twitter, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry accused the U.S. military of bringing the coronavirus to Wuhan. Although Beijing has backed away from this reprehensible claim in recent weeks, its approach has a whiff of desperation, which hints at Beijing’s own insecurity about the mishandling of the outbreak. Global scepticism extends, with good reason, to China’s coronavirus statistics. Indeed, while China’s official tally of new COVID19- cases indicates effective containment (by March 19, the number of new local infections had fallen to near zero), some in China fear that the central government has simply stopped reporting all the test results in order to keep its official count low and to maintain the narrative that it has won the war against the virus; it wouldn’t be the first time Beijing has suppressed unfavorable data. Some leaders, of course, are embracing Beijing’s narrative and applauding its methods in combating the outbreak—including officials in Cambodia, Iran, Pakistan, and Serbia. But few of these governments have been newly persuaded by recent Chinese messaging; they have a long record of accepting Chinese political narratives and economic assistance, often at the service of their own power at home. Indeed, some early recipients in Europe of Chinese-made testing kits and protective equipment rejected them as substandard. Just this week, Finland’s prime minister fired the head of the country›s emergency supply agency for spending millions of euros on defective Chinese facemasks. Meanwhile, other leaders are already pushing back against China’s attempt to rewrite the global narrative about its COVID19- response. European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell openly criticized Chinese efforts as “a struggle for influence through spinning and the ‘politics of generosity.’” Leaders in Brazil and India, who are facing challenges at home, have quickly turned to criticizing China and eschewing its aid. In Africa, public attention has been riveted by stories of widespread racism against African expats in southern China. And even before the pandemic started, Beijing faced a large trust deficit among its Asian neighbors. A survey of public opinion in six Asian countries, conducted by the Pew Research Center between May and October 2019, and published in late February, found significantly higher percentages of people held favorable views of the United States when compared with China. In pushing its narrative of triumph against the coronavirus, Beijing’s approach will be compared not only to that of the United States but also to the impressive actions of many Asian countries, including several democracies. Beijing failed badly at first—due to a striking and predictable lack of transparency— and Washington is failing now. But democratic South Korea and Taiwan have performed better than both. South Korea’s impressive testing and contact-tracing regime and Taiwan’s early detection and containment efforts reflect both their governance choices and their ability to learn from past experience with pandemics. Citizens and governments looking for models are more likely to choose those democratic successes than China’s vaunted authoritarian alternative and draconian containment efforts—the real costs of which remain unknown. Moreover, China’s economy can’t ride to the rescue as it did during the global financial crisis. Although there is a partial uptick on the supply side as Chinese factories reopen, the demand side drivers for China’s growth are in real trouble. China’s economy is too dependent on external demand from the United States and Europe to become the sole savior of the global economy. The
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12 countries hardest hit by the virus today account for about 40 percent of China’s exports. Many of these countries are also China’s top suppliers of intermediate goods. China’s economy will not be able to return to its prior growth trajectory of some five to six percent annually until the economies of the United States and the European Union recover, as well. Chinese policymakers will have to hold back some of their domestic stimulus efforts until that happens, knowing such stimulus will have a limited impact if global demand is down. Funding another credit-fueled stimulus as the Chinese did in 9–2008 is off the table due to China’s high overall debt levels and the real risk of triggering a collapse of its financial system. In this crisis, the American and Chinese economies must sink or swim together.
THE PERILS OF PREDICTION
In the middle of a global crisis, the pressures to forecast the longterm, strategic implications of the emergency are legion. The problem with drawing early conclusions is that they are often wrong: analysts focus on the immediate consequences of recent events and discount the structural features of global order.
To be sure, there has been a catastrophic failure of U.S. political and diplomatic leadership in the current crisis that could cost the United States dearly in lives and international influence over the coming months. But to argue that this may portend a “Suez moment” for the United States, as Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi recently did in Foreign Affairs, goes too far. It is worth examining the Suez analogy more closely. The British intervention in the Suez in 1956 was the last gasp of an empire that had long since lost the power and legitimacy to impose its will on its former colonial states. The United States had surpassed the United Kingdom on every diplomatic, economic, and military metric a generation before the Suez crisis. China’s rising military and technological power today is impressive, but China’s currency does not approach the hegemony that the dollar enjoyed in 1956 or that it enjoys today. Indeed, the United Kingdom’s share of global GDP at that time was only a fraction
of the United States’ today. As the Chinese Leninists would say, the international correlation of forces in 1956 were decidedly not in the United Kingdom’s favor.
That is not the case today for the United States. Even as the United States stumbles in the current crisis, Beijing faces internal and external challenges that stem from its choices about economic and political governance at home and global governance abroad. There is scant evidence that China’s authoritarian model today has more attraction than the democratic norms embraced by many of China’s neighbors. The twenty-first century is hardly certain to be “the Chinese century,” no matter what the United States does. Rather, it is more likely to be an Asian one given the effective and efficient governance demonstrated in recent weeks, in addition to the region’s substantial and growing contributions to global innovation, productivity, and growth.
RESTORING AMERICAN LEADERSHIP
Although China’s position of global leadership is hardly assured, the United States should not be complacent—far from it. There may not be a shift of power to China, but there is an ongoing crisis of American leadership, as Campbell and Doshi rightly note in their piece in Foreign Affairs. It is essential that the United States reestablish competent leadership on this pandemic at all levels. The world clearly needs a global system of surveillance, detection testing, and pharmacological response. So far, China’s rhetoric and diplomacy have generated limited gains, but the
Members of Barcelona›s Guardia Urbana, ‹Barcelona›s Local Police› checks a man at Rambles boulevard on April 2020 ,19 in Barcelona, Spain. (Getty)
United States and its allies must remain vigilant lest Beijing further expand its role in global governance and institutional design at a time when Washington is stepping back.
Previous global and regional crises dating back to the 1950s offer important lessons for restoring U.S. leadership. Indeed, many enduring patterns of cooperation and institutional development have grown out of moments of great duress: the United States’ security treaties with Australia, Japan, and others were signed at the height of the Korean War; the Quad framework with Australia, India, and Japan was organized in less than 72 hours in response to the 2004 tsunami; the G20- leaders gathered for the first time in November 2008, in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis. Even after the 98–1997 financial crisis, when the United States and the International Monetary Fund demanded tough conditions that alienated much of Asia as Beijing won points for not devaluing its currency, the long-term result was more resilient and market-based economies in the region, not a shift to Chinesestyle state capitalism.
If the United States is in strategic competition with China, then effective U.S. leadership should be at the service of building something positive out of the crisis rather than trying to use it to isolate and alienate Beijing. The failure of the G7- foreign ministers to reach agreement on a joint statement (because the U.S. delegation insisted on calling the novel coronavirus the “Wuhan virus,” going against the guidelines of the World Health Organization and the positions of Washington’s closest allies) hardly constitutes an example of effective leadership. For decades, the United States has maintained power, credibility, and influence not only by virtue of its size and capabilities but also by attracting other nations to its vision for security and prosperity. A United States that is churlish and defensive about China right now is not a United States that will earn respect among its friends and allies. A United States that learns from the experiences of Germany, South Korea, Taiwan and others in pandemic management; that embraces practical and meaningful cooperation with China; and that engages with global organizations, such as the WHO, to help them reform is a United States that can use the pandemic as an opportunity to remind the world of what American leadership looks like.
This article was originally published on ForeignAffairs.com.
A close up of President Donald J. Trump›s notes shows where Corona was crossed out «Corona» and replaced with «Chinese» Virus as he speaks with his coronavirus task force in response to the coronavirus19-COVID pandemic during a briefing in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House ,19on Thursday, March in Washington,2020 DC. - Getty
Hezbollah Doesn’t Want Any Reforms
by: Elie Fawaz
Recently a paper rumoured to be the government’s economic reform plan was leaked, and apparently it intends to present this plan to all parties involved in the crisis. The parties in the crisis include the Lebanese people, banks, international creditors that hold treasury bonds and finally the institutions and countries that seek to assist Lebanon in the form of loans, which would only be given on the condition of reducing the public budget deficit by reforming the electricity sector and imposing additional taxes on Lebanese citizens. It should be noted that this leaked paper lacked any serious reforms that would adjust the structure of the Lebanese economy and halt its downward spiral. Why is that?
Simply put, any structural economic reforms will come at odds with the current political structure in Lebanon. The first entity that would be hurt by any reforms in the country’s political and economic apparatuses is Hezbollah. This is because the group is the biggest government entity that exploits state corruption and it also the largest captor of state funds. Moreover, other political entities in the country, such as Gebran Bassil, get a piece of the pie by promising complete obedience to the group.
So what reforms should the government seek to take in order to ensure economic recovery?
First, there is the problem of surplus employment in the public sector. A third of the state budget goes to cover public sector pensions. Part of this money is paid to thousands of imaginary employees who do not show up to work. This has been a problem that has been informally discussed among many political blocs, but it has not been officially addressed.
A report by Ibrahim Kanaan, a member of President Aoun’s bloc, indicated that therr is about 40,000 imaginary jobs in the public sector. These jobs are divided among the leaders of Lebanon’s religious sects. The reason why thousands of people are getting paid (with state funds) for doing nothing is because leaders distribute these jobs among their sects, and clans to ensure their loyalty. Addressing this issue would require leaders from sects to forgo their ability of keeping their clans and electorate happy and satisfied.
Second, there is the problem of customs evasion, which is something that Hezbollah is directly involved in. Most businesspeople and merchants with close ties to Hezbollah have American sanctions placed on them. To help these businesses, Hezbollah ensures that goods going to their loyalist merchants pass through airports and harbours without any customs fees. As a result, these merchants can flood markets with goods at low prices that other businesses can’t compete with. Ghazi Al-Aridi, the former Minister of Public Works and Transportation, spoke about this issue stating that such actions have deprived the state from billions of dollars in revenue. Moreover, merchant tax evasion has hurt the economy, what is worse is the fact that most businesspeople seek tax evasion, especially those who are loyal to Hezbollah.
Then there’s the issue of the electrical energy crisis, which is a huge rabbit hole in of itself since this issue has exhausted public funds and has cost the state tens of billions of dollars over the last three decades. Up until this moment, Lebanon has not found a sustainable solution to this electricity crisis and yet the Lebanese population still annually pays two billion dollars for such a poor service. Gebran Bassil and his Free Patriotic Movement have been in charge of this portfolio for the past decade and he has thus far failed to address the issue.
Any economic policy that addresses the issues above would hurt Hezbollah and its allies since it would deprive them from their sources of income. Any resolution of these problems would also hurt the group’s illicit activities in Latin america and its efforts to circumvent the Trump administration’s policies towards Iran.
As such, Hezbollah cannot and will not enforce any policies that will improve the Lebanese economy because it benefits from the curruption that is rampant within the state. So the real question is the following: if the Diab government ignores all these issues and forces the people to bear the burden of economic reform by making them to pay higher taxes, would they accept that?
A Weekly Political News Magazine Issue 1797- April - 24/04/2020
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Majalla – London
Ahmed Al-Tayeb was born in 1946 in AlKurna village in the governorate of Luxor. He received his basic education at Al-Azhar school, where he memorized and studied the Qur’an and Islamic major works and texts. He studied Doctrine and Philosophy at Al-Azhar University, where he graduated in 1969. He then earned a Master›s degree and Ph.D. in Islamic philosophy in 1971 and 1977 respectively. Al-Tayeb is a hereditary Sufi shaykh and has expressed support for a global Sufi league.
He became a lecturer in 1977 and an associate professor in 1982. Since January 1988, he had been a professor of philosophy at Al-Azhar University. In addition to his academic career, Al-Tayeb served as the Grand Mufti of the Arab Republic of Egypt from March 2002 until September 2003. He became president of Al-Azhar University in September 2003 until he was appointed in 2010 as Grand Imam of Al-Azhar, the second-oldest university in the world, where teaching has continued without interruption since 975 CE. Al-Azhar represents the centre of Sunni Islamic jurisprudence. The university is considered one of the most prominent Islamic educational institutions, and the foremost centre of Sunni Muslim scholarship worldwide.
Prior to his appointment as the Grand Imam of Al-Azhar and president of alAzhar University by former president Hosni Mubarak, he was a member of Mubarak›s National Democratic Party›s Policies Committee. He initially refused to resign from his position in the National Democratic Party (NDP) by saying that there was no conflict between his role at Al-Azhar and membership in the party.
Al-Tayeb’s scholarly influence as a leading intellectual of Sunni Islam spans the globe. He has served as the Dean of the Faculty of Islamic Studies in Aswan, and the theology faculty of the International Islamic University in Pakistan. He has also taught in universities in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. He speaks English and French languages fluently, and he has translated several books from French to Arabic.
Al-Tayeb has emphasized his mission to promote traditional Islam since becoming Grand Sheikh. He has stressed the importance of teaching students about Islamic heritage—considering Al-Azhar graduates as ambassadors of Islam to the world. On 29 August 2016 during the World Islamic Conference held in Grozny, Chechnya, Sheikh Tayyeb defined the Sunni community (Ahl Sunnah wa Jama’a) as those who follow Imam Abul-Hasan Al-Ash’ari and Imam Abu Mansur Al-Maturidi and the scholars of Hanafi, Maliki, and Shafi’i jurisprudence, as well as the moderate scholars of Hanbali school. He also included the Sufis following in the way of Imam Al-Junayd.
Al-Tayeb has been active in trying to diffuse the influence of ISIS, organizing many initiatives and conferences. He has strongly condemned the group, stating that it is acting «under the guise of this holy religion and have given themselves the name ‹Islamic State› in an attempt to export their false Islam.”
He has also tried to improve foreign relations and met with many foreign religious leaders and heads of states (including the Pope and Queen Elizabeth).
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The Right Kind of Inflammation is Essential to Your Body›s Healing System. But Chronic Inflammation Can be a Problem Understanding Inflammation
by Harvard Men›s Health Watch
The saying «too much of a good thing» applies to much of life, but especially to inflammation.
«People think inflammation needs to be stomped out at all times, but it plays an essential role in healing and injury repair to keep your body safe and healthy,» says Dr. Robert H. Shmerling, medical editor of Understanding Inflammation from Harvard Health Publishing and an associate professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School. «Some inflammation is good. Too much is often bad. The goal is to recognize when inflammation is simply doing its job, and when it can potentially cause problems.»
ACUTE AND CHRONIC There are two types of inflammation: acute and chronic. People are most familiar with acute inflammation. This is the redness, warmth, swelling, and pain around tissues and joints that occurs in response to an injury, like when you cut yourself. When the body is injured, your immune system releases white blood cells to surround and protect the area.
«Acute inflammation is how your body fights infections and helps speed up the healing process,» says Dr. Shmerling. «In this way, inflammation is good because it protects the body.» This process works the same if you have a virus like a cold or the flu.
In contrast, when inflammation gets turned up too high and lingers for a long time, and the immune system continues to pump out white blood cells and chemical messengers that prolong the process, that›s known as chronic inflammation. «From the body›s perspective, it›s under consistent attack, so the immune system keeps fighting indefinitely,» says Dr. Shmerling.
Signs of inflammation are like a car›s dashboard engine light. It tells you that something is wrong. But your response is not to take out the bulb, because that›s not the problem. Instead, you look at what caused the light to turn on. «It›s the same with inflammation,» says Dr. Shmerling. «It›s telling you that something bigger is going on that requires attention.» When this happens, white blood cells may end up attacking nearby healthy tissues and organs. For example, if you are overweight and have more visceral fat cells - the deep type of fat that surrounds your organs - the immune system may see those cells as a threat and attack them with white blood cells. The longer you are overweight, the longer your body can remain in a state of
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inflammation. Research has shown that chronic inflammation is associated with heart disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, and bowel diseases like Crohn›s disease and ulcerative colitis.
Yet, because chronic inflammation can continue for a long time, it›s not easy to know its exact impact. «It›s a chicken-and-egg scenario,» says Dr. Shmerling. «Does chronic inflammation increase the risk of these ailments, or is it a byproduct? It is not always clear.»
MAKE LIFESTYLE CHANGES Here are some other steps you can take to prevent and reduce chronic inflammation: • If your gums bleed when you brush or floss, you may have gum inflammation. Make an appointment to see your dentist for a check-up and step up your oral hygiene. • Get your cholesterol tested. High amounts of «bad» LDL cholesterol can lead to an inflammatory response in the arteries and restrict blood flow. • Quit smoking. The toxins from smoking have a direct link to inflammation.
WHEN TO WORRY Most of the time, you don›t need to worry too much about acute inflammation, says Dr. Shmerling. You can take an over-the-counter pain reliever to help relieve symptoms, or apply cold compresses to reduce swelling. «Otherwise, it is usually best to let the inflammation do its
work to help with healing,» says Dr. Shmerling. Of course, the cause of acute inflammation may need treatment. For example, a bacterial infection may require antibiotics, so if you have a fever or significant symptoms - such as severe pain or shortness of breath - see your doctor.
Chronic inflammation is trickier to deal with. The problem is that chronic inflammation is often «invisible,» since it does not show telltale physical signs the way acute inflammation does.
So how can you prevent or reduce inflammation you cannot necessarily see or feel? The only way to detect chronic inflammation is to have an evaluation by your doctor. He or she will review your symptoms, perform a physical exam, and perhaps check your blood for signs of inflammation. (See «A test for inflammation.»)
impact on managing chronic inflammation since they both also can help control weight and improve sleep.
Otherwise, the best approach is to prevent conditions related to chronic inflammation. «It goes back to the basics: maintaining a healthy weight, choosing a good diet, getting plenty of sleep, and exercising regularly,» says Dr. Shmerling.
A TEST FOR INFLAMMATION How do you know if you have chronic inflammation? A blood test measures a protein produced by the liver, C-reactive protein (CRP), which rises in response to inflammation. A CRP level between 1 and 3 milligrams per liter of blood often signals a low, yet chronic, level of inflammation. The erythrocyte sedimentation rate is another blood test for inflammation. It is used for people with inflammatory conditions, like rheumatoid arthritis. The evidence is not clear that a specific type of diet can prevent chronic inflammation. However, certain foods are associated with either promoting or inhibiting the inflammatory response. These foods also are linked to a lower risk of problems related to chronic inflammation, such as heart disease, weight gain, and cancer.
For instance, cut back or eliminate foods high in simple sugars like soda, fruit juices with added sugars, sports drinks, processed meat, and refined carbs like white bread and pasta. «These foods can spike blood sugar levels, which can lead to overeating and weight gain,» says Dr. Shmerling.
Also, eat more foods high in the antioxidants known as polyphenols, which can lower inflammation. Examples include all types of berries, cherries, plums, red grapes, onions, turmeric, green tea, and dark green leafy vegetables like spinach and kale.
Regular exercise can help protect against conditions linked with chronic inflammation, especially heart disease and obesity. A 2017 study in Brain, Behavior, and Immunity found that just 20 minutes of moderate-intensity exercise (in this case, walking on a treadmill) can have an anti-inflammatory effect.
