FROM THE PAGES OF THE PERISHABLEPUNDIT.COM

FROM THE PAGES OF PERISHABLEPUNDIT.COM

What Are Grape Innovations Worth?

We have carefully followed the VitisGen and VitisGen2 project for a long time. It is a multi-institution research collaboration, funded by the USDA-NIFA Specialty Crop Research Initiative and focused on enabling the production of new grape varieties.

At the most recent New York Produce Show and Conference in December 2021, we had an important presentation: Consumers, Grapes and Gene Editing Cornell’s Brad Rickard Sheds Light on What the Research Shows and What’s Yet to Be Learned. Now the Global Grape Summit, to be held in Bakersfield, CA, on August 20, 2022, will continue this exploration with a presentation by Julian Alston, Ph.D., Distinguished Professor of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Director of the Robert Mondavi Institute at the University of California, Davis. This presentation — titled What are

Grape Varietal Innovations Worth?

— is designed to help an industry wrestling with an explosion of varieties. This is a brief selection from a much longer article running in Jim Prevor’s Perishable Pundit:

Q: At our New York Produce Show in December, Brad Rickard revealed the new VitisGen2 research built around table grape innovations, focusing on consumer attitudes and industry dynamics related to gene editing. Brad discussed proliferation of grape varieties, and how priorities on trait developments may not always align between producers, retailers, and consumers.

How have you been involved in this collaboration?

A: In 2017, I asked Brad and Karina Gallardo (from Washington State University) to join us for VitisGen2. Our component of [the study] is focused on the economics of varietal innovation in California table grapes. Within that, Karina led the part on eliciting consumer preferences, and Brad’s contribution in New York was based on preliminary results from that work.

That element is now complete, and we have a couple of papers submitted to professional academic journals.

Q: That’s exciting. Could you provide abstracts?

A: One paper looks at Consumer Acceptance of New Plant-Breeding Technologies: An Application to the Use of Gene Editing in Fresh Table Grapes. This study estimates consumers’ willingness to pay for specific product (quality) and process (agronomic) attributes of table grapes, including taste, texture, external appearance, expected number of chemical applications, and the breeding technology used to deJIM PREVOR EDITOR-IN-CHIEF velop the plant. Considering varietal traits, on average our survey respondents were willing to pay the highest price premiums for specific offers of improvements in table grape taste and texture, followed by external

Considering varietal traits, appearance and expected number on average our survey of chemical applications. respondents were willing Considering breeding methods, on average our respondents were to pay the highest price willing to pay a small premium for premiums for specific offers of table grapes developed using conimprovements in table grape ventional breeding rather than gene taste and texture, followed editing (e.g., CRISPR). The group of consumers most by external appearance and likely to reject gene editing considexpected number of chemical ers both genetic engineering and applications. gene editing to be breeding technologies that produce foods which are “morally unacceptable and not safe to eat.” Another submitted paper, Consumers’ Willingness to Accept Gene Edited Fruit, An Application to Quality Traits for Fresh Table Grapes, compares consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for selected quality attributes of green varieties of table grapes. Data was collected using an online survey that includes a discrete “choice” experiment, where one group of respondents considered table grapes developed using gene editing (CRISPR-Cas9), while the other considered table grapes developed using conventional breeding. The highest WTP value across attributes was for sweetness, followed by crispness, uniform skin color, flavor, and size. The rank order of the WTP values for the table grape attributes was the same for both breeding technologies. We found no differences in the attribute-specific WTP values for grapes between the two breeding technologies. Our estimates indicated a slight discount in overall WTP for table grapes produced using CRISPR compared with conventional breeding, but this discount was neither economically nor statistically significant.

Q: That seems to be a critical and enlightening point that the difference was not statistically meaningful between gene edited and conventional breeding. A: In the paper’s conclusion, the analyses suggest the existence of four groups that vary in level of knowledge about Genetic Engineering (GE) and CRISPR. The variation in self-reported knowledge about breeding methods is directly related to the perception that grapes developed using CRISPR are safe, natural, and ethical to eat. Respondents reporting that they are well-informed about GE and CRISPR are also more likely to have positive attitudes toward these breeding methods.

Q: This suggests an educational/marketing component...But this raises other questions. Will retailers stock the products if they are concerned of vocal activist protests?

A: For now, USDA treats gene editing differently than GMOs, so no distinctive label is required. Will there be counter marketing against gene editing. Perhaps a non-GMO project extended to gene editing? Could gene edited product in the U.S. become an issue for exporters to Europe? These are important questions we will discuss at the Global Grape Summit.

The other main part of VitisGen is a monograph, in process, looking backwards at varietal innovation in California table grape production and measuring the value of those innovations. I am primarily responsible for that part, and much of the writing remains to be done, including on the table grape breeding industry. For that, I envision spending some time over the next few months talking with table grape breeders to learn more about the economics of their industry. Participating in the Global Grape Summit should be helpful.

I can summarize what we have learned so far in this project. For context, I can provide some broader background on how we economists think about the value of varietal traits. I will also provide an overview of the changing mix of table grape varieties being grown in California and traits being emphasized and how we value them. And I will give some of the results from our analysis of the consumer attitude surveys.

The guts of the presentation begins at the consumer research. I can spend some time on background and motivation for the research….

California grape producers face many challenges: *Competition for resources (land, labor, water) *Concern over reliable availability of labor and water *Climate change *Regulatory environment *Pests and diseases and technologies to manage them *Shifting demand, markets and prices; foreign competition *Concentrated agribusiness sector

This has led to enhanced demand for innovations, including new varieties.

In terms of California grape production, table grapes are quite a small share of daily acreage, and the total area of table grapes has been fairly flat. But they're relatively high-yielding, so they're a bigger share in volume, and an even bigger share of value. It gets up to about 20% of volume, and about 30% of value. And that's partly because table grapes are found in finished retail, where wine grapes are just for processing. So that's one story to say table grapes have been a relatively profitable segment of the industry in the Central Valley. They’ve actually been doing okay, compared with raisin grapes, and even wine grapes in the Central Valley. In table grapes, we've had big changes in the varieties grown over the past 50 years, and especially, over the past 20 years. Q: Yes. Brad noted there were essentially seven main varieties back in 1970, and today we see 20 main varieties, adding that Thompson Seedless used to be about 70% of the acreage back in 1970, and it’s probably closer to 25% now. A: The story you want to tell is that there's been a lot of innovation going on in table grapes, compared with other grapes. There's In table grapes, we’ve been almost no innovation in variethad big changes in the ies of wine grapes or raisin grapes in varieties grown over comparison. the past 50 years, and Q: When you say there's a lot of inespecially, over the novations in table grapes, what types of past 20 years. innovations are you talking about? Are these focused on eating qualities, such as taste and texture, size and appearance, or more agronomic, less obvious consumer-facing traits like increasing yields, pest and disease resistance, longer shelf-life, reduced chemical use...although there could be a sustainability marketing side there. Is the issue varietal differentiation on the retail shelf with novel products, such as the Cotton Candy or Gumdrops, that could demand premiums? A: The guys who breed table grapes and grow them talk about flavor, good eating attributes, whether it’s crunchy and sweet, that it’s seedless, what it looks like, the size and color, the shelf life, and what part in the season it’s available. These are the attributes they are stressing in their marketing. I don't know whether all these varieties also have desirable agronomic attributes like yield, but I'm betting they can't sell a variety that has lower yield. To hear Professor Alston’s full presentation and learn how to get on top of the dramatic changes going on in the world of grapes, register to attend the Global Grape Summit in Bakersfield, CA, on the August 20, 2022. You can find out more and register for the Summit at www.GlobalGrapeSummit.com, and if you have additional questions regarding the event, just let us know by emailing info@globalgrapesummit.com