Manny Be Good by Maple Street Press

MANNY BE GOOD? After a cockeyed 2009, how much does Manny Ramirez have left to give? by Jay Jaffe

annywood is open for business again. Shortly after the conclusion of a roller coaster season that saw him help the Dodgers to their second straight division title despite missing nearly a third of the season due to a violation of the game’s drug policy, Manny Ramirez exercised his 2010 option to return to the Dodgers. Soon, the club announced that they would rechristen the section of Dodger Stadium seats nearest the left fielder in his honor. The question is whether the magic can continue. Will increasingly wary fans shower Ramirez with adulation for his hitting and forgiveness for his other transgressions? Will Manny be Manny? Few mid-season trades in baseball history have paid more immediate dividends than the Dodgers’ July 31, 2008 trade for Ramirez. The three-way deal that sent the 36-year-old slugger from Boston to Los Angeles provided a welcome jolt to the flagging offense of a 54–54 team. Living up to his

reputation as one of the greatest pure hitters of his era, if not all time, Ramirez batted a superhuman .396 with a .489 on-base percentage, .743 slugging percentage, and 17 home runs in just 53 games. As frenzied Chavez Ravine fans donned dreadlocked wigs and #99 jerseys in his honor, the Dodgers zipped past the Arizona Diamondbacks to claim the NL West crown. Ramirez then clubbed two more homers in leading the boys in blue to an NLDS sweep of the Cubs, their first postseason series win in 20 years. Despite the lovefest his performance engendered, Ramirez’s return engagement was no guarantee. The eight-year, $160 million contract he’d signed with Boston in December 2000 had run its course, and both the slugger and überagent Scott Boras were eager to test the free agent market given the momentum created by his late-season showing. “Gas is up and so am I,” joked Ramirez after the Dodgers

MSP Dodgers Annual 2010 | 35

Manny Ramirez rounds the bases on one of his ten second-half homers in ’09. fell to the Phillies in the NLCS. During the two-week exclusivity period before Ramirez was allowed to field bids from other clubs, Dodger general manager Ned Colletti offered a two-year, $45 million deal that included a club option for a third year. Boras had his sights set on a much more lucrative, long-term deal for his client, however, telling Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman that he felt a six-year, $150 million contract was appropriate for the “iconic” slugger. The notoriously tight-fisted Frank McCourt wasn’t buying at that price, and neither for that matter was anybody else, particularly given the winter’s frigid economic climate and the free agent market’s glut of corner outfielders, which included not only Ramirez but Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Raul Ibañez. None could match Manny’s star power, but in terms of potential mid-lineup production, they didn’t appear to be bad alternatives. Further dampening the market was Ramirez’s own reputation for creating off-field distraction. The length of his dreadlocks aside, he’d displayed model citizenship since joining the Dodgers, but Ramirez wasn’t nearly as beloved in Boston, at least by the time of his departure. Between an incident in which he shoved the team’s 64-year-old traveling secretary Jack McCormick over a ticket request, his expressed desire for the Red Sox not to pick up his $20 million options

for 2009 and 2010, and his occasional absences from the lineup due to knee troubles, Ramirez burned many a bridge on his way out of Beantown. During the exclusivity period, ESPN’s Pedro Gomez reported that prior to the trade, the Sox had been prepared to suspend Ramirez in late July over his unwillingness to play due to knee pain. Those factors combined to reduce the slugger’s leverage, and the Dodgers and Boras quickly reached a standoff. Though Colletti had begun the offseason by re-signing Casey Blake (three years, $17.5 million) and Rafael Furcal (three years, $30 million) in a spending flurry, he soon tightened the purse strings. He waited well into February to sign both Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson to incentivebased, one-year deals, and let negotiations with Boras reach a stalemate even as various leaks suggested Ramirez’s price had dropped to four or five years at around $100 million. Boras tried to make a market for Manny, claiming to be negotiating with several unnamed and possibly fictitious teams (the New York Knights GM was notably unavailable for comment). Giants GM Brian Sabean was the only executive who would go on record as suggesting his club was a potential suitor, but he never made a formal offer, and publicly scoffed at the magnitude of the deal being sought: “It’s going to take a special set of circumstances. It’s not going to be a long-term contract. It’s not going to be at the dollars being speculated.” In the end, the Dodgers played hardball with Boras in a manner that few other teams have. On March 4, after much back and forth, they finally announced that the two sides had agreed on a two-year, $45 million deal, one that differed only slightly from the Dodgers’ opening gambit. The contract allowed for a $25 million salary in 2009 and a player opt-out clause prior to 2010, however two-thirds of the overall contract’s amount was deferred without interest, with payments stretching into 2013, lowering the present day value even further. If he was disappointed in the final outcome, Ramirez didn’t show it: “I’m in a happy place, where I wanted to be, so... actually, I won. I won getting out of [Boston] because I’m in a great place. I’m in a place that I want to play. I’m in a place that I’m gonna be happy.” With the exhibition season well underway, an exuberant Ramirez bounded to the Dodgers new spring training facility in Glendale, AZ and worked hard to get himself into shape—harder than his 37-year-old body would allow. Just an hour before his first scheduled Cactus League appearance, he was scratched from the lineup due to a tight hamstring. Curiously, he played the next day, but aggravated the hamstring in his second plate appearance and missed the following week. He hit his first spring homer in his second game back, on March 24, played the outfield for the first time

36 | MSP Dodgers Annual 2010

Photo on previous page: Kevork Djansezian Photo this page: Christian Petersen/Getty images

YOUR 2010 LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Photo: Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images

Manny Be Good? the following day, and finished the spring not only hitting .458 but lobbying for as many at bats as possible as the exhibition season wound up. Ramirez and the Dodgers bolted from the gate as the regular season opened, winning their first 13 home games and enjoying seven- and eight-game winning streaks en route to a major-league best 21–8 record as of May 6, 6.5 games ahead of the Giants in the division race. Ramirez was hitting an eyepopping .348/.492/.641 (AVG, OBP, SLG) at the time, but it all came crashing to a halt on May 7, when the commissioner’s office announced that he had received a 50-game suspension for violating the game’s drug policy. Ramirez hadn’t actually tested positive for a steroid; rather, he was discovered to have obtained an improper prescription for Human Chorionic Gonadotropin, a female fertility drug often used to mask steroid usage by restarting the body’s natural testosterone cycle. According to reports by ESPN, the case had actually been triggered when a spring training test revealed he had an elevated testosterone level in his body, and that further tests confirmed the testosterone had come from an artificial source. Through a statement, Ramirez claimed that the substance was for “a personal health issue,” acknowledged that it was nonetheless a substance banned under league policy, and apologized to the Dodger organization, his teammates, and fans. While the suspension drew a fair amount of outrage from mainstream media outlets (“Manny won’t find forgiveness,” read one typical ESPN headline), Ramirez didn’t draw nearly the degree of widespread ire from fans as past drug offenders, and not only because it simply provided further evidence of “Manny being Manny.” The entire controversy appeared to herald a new age in the battle to clean up the game. A popular superstar was caught by Major League Baseball’s increasingly sophisticated testing program, and unlike the February 2009 outing of Alex Rodriguez as having tested positive during the 2003 survey testing, there was no innuendo, no violation of guaranteed anonymity, no illegal government leak. Just crime and punishment, the violation of rules triggering a suspension served as eager fans awaited his return. The Dodgers soldiered onward during Manny’s suspension, with Juan Pierre coming off the bench to hit a robust .318/.381/.411 (a middle ground between a red-hot May and an ice-cold June) while resuming the outfield duties he’d lost upon Ramirez’s initial arrival. The offense’s scoring still dipped by 18% in Ramirez’s absence, but the team nonetheless went 29–21 because the rotation jelled. By the time Ramirez rejoined the lineup in San Diego on July 3, the Dodgers’ division lead had expanded to 7.5 games. Ramirez’s return, of course, had been hotly anticipated.

Under the terms of his suspension, he was allowed a ten-day “rehab” assignment with the Dodgers Triple A affiliate in Albuquerque prior to rejoining the team. Many a big-name columnist railed at the clause that allowed such a luxury, ignoring the fact that, as with every other aspect of baseball’s drug policy, the rehab stint had been collectively bargained between the MLB Players Association and the owners, and that lesser lights such as Guillermo Mota and J.C. Romero had enjoyed the same right upon completing their own suspensions. Still, the buzz around Albuquerque—which saw the Isotopes sell over 50,000 tickets to a four-game series featuring Ramirez, nearly doubling their average attendance and going about 25% beyond their ballpark’s official capacity—must have made baseball’s higher-ups squirm in their chairs. Ramirez continued his tear upon returning to the lineup, collecting 16 hits, including four homers, in his first 15 games back, lifting his season line to .343/.472/.657. But he was hit on the left wrist by a Homer Bailey fastball on July 21, and despite a dramatic game-winning pinch-grand slam the next night—coincidentally Manny Ramirez Bobblehead Night—his production began to sag. Ramirez batted just .255/.380/.448 the rest of the way, as his strikeout rate

Manny was all smiles upon arriving in L.A. midway through the 2008 season.

MSP Dodgers Annual 2010 | 37

YOUR 2010 LOS ANGELES DODGERS Manny Ramirez Projected 2010 Statistics increased from 15% of plate appearances to 21%, and System PA H HR AVG OBP SLG his batting average on balls in play (an indicator of how Bill James 602 152 30 .296 .406 .537 CHONE 415 116 24 .280 .374 .511 hard he hit the ball) dipped from .369 to .302. He was OLIVER 545 135 25 .309 .415 .555 still productive, if hardly his old self. PECOTA 435 99 15 .263 .363 .439 Nine days after being hit by Bailey, Ramirez made ZiPS 525 130 27 .290 .405 .538 headlines again. The New York Times reported that Average 504 128 24 .289 .395 .519 both his name and that of former teammate David Ortiz had been leaked to the media as numbering .289/.395/.519 line with 24 homers, a bit of a step down from among the 104 players who tested positive for steroids durRamirez’s final 2009 rates (.290/.418/.531) but not a drastic ing the 2003 survey testing, just as the names of Rodriguez one given that he’ll turn 38 on May 30. Brian Cartwright’s and Sammy Sosa had been leaked earlier in the year. The OLIVER projection is the most optimistic, seeing Ramirez supposedly anonymous tests carried no penalty for a posias recovering a bit of his lost power. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS tive outcome either then or now, but enough players had projection as well as that of Bill James both expect Ramirez tested positive to trigger stricter penalties within the sport, to essentially replicate his 2009 performance, albeit across a including suspensions. While Ortiz was vocal in his denial of greater number of games played. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA any wrongdoing, Ramirez merely shrugged and refused to and Sean Smith’s CHONE both project Ramirez to dip below comment on the report. last season’s numbers, although remaining at least somewhat Whether the injury or the allegations had any bearing productive; under both systems, his playing time will continue on his psyche, Ramirez did fall into a late-season funk, batting to fall as well. Taken together, the set of possibilities is rather .218/.384/.449 during September and October and finishing reassuring given the typical age-related declines of even star the season with only 19 home runs, breaking a 14-year run players. of reaching at least 20. As the playoffs opened, manager Joe While it’s probably of less concern to Dodger fans Torre admitted, “He just doesn’t look comfortable up there... in general than to Ramirez’s fans in particular, the biggest The only thing I can do is write his name in there, pat him question is what kind of impact the past year’s events will have on the back and expect better things to happen.” At least one on the slugger’s legacy. Even with his modest 2009 home run opposing scout suggested that his bat had slowed: “Manny is total, Ramirez climbed to 15th on the all-time list with 546, living on soft stuff, that’s all he can get around on.... Guys who having just passed a pair of rather imperfect sluggers (Mickey wouldn’t have dreamed of challenging him in the past are goMantle and Jimmie Foxx). Among those ranks, he joins no ing right at him with fastballs.” Cynics suggested that Ramirez less than five other contemporaries (Barry Bonds, Sosa, Mark was struggling without the use of performance enhancers; McGwire, Rodriguez, and Rafael Palmeiro) also linked to the Los Angeles Times’ Bill Plaschke, ever eager to inject pop steroid usage. We’ll never know just what role performancepsychology into his reading of the slugger, suggested that enhancing drugs played in helping those hitters compile hit “Ramirez [is] trying to kill the ball to overcompensate for the after hit and homer after homer, and it will take years to see fact that he’s no longer juiced, attempting to show everyone whether Hall of Fame voters forgive those players for their that his previous success was him and not steroids.” misdeeds. Whatever was going on, Ramirez was relatively quiet In leading the Yankees to a world championship in 2009, in the postseason. He went 4-for-13 with three doubles and Rodriguez won back fans disappointed by the revelations that two RBI in the Dodgers’ NLDS sweep of the Cardinals, he stood among the hundreds of players alleged to have used but a less-impressive 5-for-19 with a homer and two RBI in PEDs before the game began the arduous process of cleaning the League Championship Series loss against the Phillies. up. Dodger fans can only hope that Ramirez can pull off a Tellingly, he walked just twice while striking out six times in similar trick. MSP the postseason, compared to 11 walks and four strikeouts the previous October. A third-generation Dodger fan now residing in Brooklyn, Jay Jaffe is the Between that quiet showing, the drama from the two founder of Futility Infielder, one of the oldest baseball blogs, and an author steroid stories, and the still-stagnant economy, it counted only of Baseball Prospectus. In recent years he’s contributed work to BP’s It as a mild surprise that Ramirez decided not to opt out of his Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, Mind Game, and annual player guides, along with contract—a rarity for a Boras client (remember J.D. Drew?). Fantasy Baseball Index and the MSP Yankees Annual. So with the die cast for his return, what can the Dodgers expect from Ramirez in 2010? An average of five popular projection systems yields a © 2010 Maple Street Press, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

38 | MSP Dodgers Annual 2010

YOUR 2010 LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Manny Ramirez #99 Team G

RBI

LAN 104 352 62 102 24

187 81

Age: 38 • Position: LF Bats: Right • Throws: Right

BB IBB

CS GDP P/PA HR/FB AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS AOPS BAbip

4.01 11.1 .290 .418 .531 .949

156

.329

Much was made of Ramirez’s embarrassing steroid suspension and the perception that he was a shell of his past greatness after his return, but a deeper look shows far more. In the 29 games before his suspension, he had an OPS of 1.133; in the 15 games immediately after his July 3 return, it was 1.116. Both marks were well above his career average, and the layoff had clearly not hampered his productivity. So what happened? The turning point came not when the suspension was handed down, but rather on July 21 when he took a 95 mph fastball from Homer Bailey off his left hand. Though Ramirez insisted that he was uninjured (and indeed, provided a lasting memory for Dodger fans the next day with his “Bobbleslam,” a pinch-hit grand slam on his own Bobblehead Night) it’s hard to ignore the fact that his OPS in the five weeks following the Bailey pitch was just .766. It jumped back up to .917 between August 29 and the end of the season, lending credence to the idea that the sore hand had been bothering him. Ramirez still would have ranked ninth in MLB OPS, if he’d had enough appearances to qualify. – Mike Petriello Contract: Signed through 2010, $22.5M AAV.

S C O U T I N G R E P O R T : Games from 2009 Pitch Fastballs Curves Sliders Change-ups Other

Overall .318 .167 .250 .273 .667

vs. RHPs .316 .208 .250 .281 .667

HIGH

vs. LHPs .326 .083 .250 .250

LOW

HIGH if greater than .340; LOW if less than .200

S P R A Y Z O N E S : Percent of Balls to Each Zone

HIT ZONES H OT Z O N E

HIGH LOW

20.9%

HIGH if greater than 20% LOW if less than 12.5% Minimum 44 balls in play

19.0%

batting average under .250

slugging percentage over .500

13%

.250 .552 .143 11% .224 .324 .344

CHASE ZONE more than 33.3% pitches swung at

4.6% 27.0% I N F I E L D

Category Fastball - Up OPS Pitcher Behind AVG Curve/Slider - LHP OPS <2 strikes InPlay%

OUTFIELD

GROUND BALLS 32.7%

FLY BALLS 41.9% AB

10%

22%

17%

STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

8.7%

Photo: Chris McGrath/Getty Images

37%

.471 .440 .300

COLD ZONE

P OW E R Z O N E

19.8%

SPLIT

batting average over .300

LINE DRIVES 25.4%

BB% PAT HBP AB/HR TB

Ramirez 1.277 .492 .310 37% OBP

SLG

MLB Rk 1 2 262 235

HR RBI

Total

104 431 352 102 24

18.8 16.5 .128

18.5 187 .241 44.1 .290 .418 .531

.949 .329

Home Away

48 56

193 162 238 190

42 60

11 13

1 1

10 9

30 33

39 42

25 46

20.2 13.0 .114 17.6 19.3 .138

5 2

16.2 85 .265 52.4 .259 .373 .525 21.1 102 .221 38.3 .316 .454 .537

.898 .283 .991 .367

1st Half 36 2nd Half 68

154 121 277 231

43 59

11 13

0 2

9 10

29 34

21 60

31 40

13.6 20.1 .132 21.7 14.4 .124

1 6

13.4 81 .314 46.5 .355 .487 .669 1.156 .374 23.1 106 .203 42.4 .255 .379 .459 .838 .304

vs Left n/a 87 74 vs Right n/a 344 278

20 82

6 18

0 2

4 15

9 54

14 67

12 59

16.1 13.8 .109 19.5 17.2 .132

1 6

18.5 38 .243 50.0 .270 .379 .514 18.5 149 .241 42.7 .295 .427 .536

ISO XBH% AVG

MLB Avg .812 .347 .600 43%

OPS

BAbip

.893 .286 .963 .342

MSP Dodgers Annual 2010 | 15