The Rise and Fall of Neoliberal Capitalism
David M. Kotz
Harvard University Press
February, 2015
The Golden Age of Capitalism
Homelessness after 1980
Three Puzzles
1. Why had the previous form of capitalism been replaced by a harsh new form?
2. Why had long-discredited free-market economic ideas returned?
3. How could a capitalist economy bring sustainable economic expansions if wages stagnate or fall?
Outline
1. What is the contemporary form of capitalism, that arose around 1980?
2. Why did it arise?
3. How has it worked?
4. Why did it give rise to a big financial crisis and Great Recession in 2008?
5. What lies ahead?
Neoliberalism as Ideas only
Broader Meaning of Neoliberalism
Neoliberalism is a coherent, mutually reinforcing set of economic and political institutions, together with supporting dominant ideas.
The coherence of the institutions of neoliberalism is their support for the predominant role of market relations and market forcesin the regulation of economic activity.
Neoliberalism: Capital Fully Dominates Labor
Location of Neoliberal Institutions
Global economy
State-economy relation
Labor market
Corporate sector
Examples of Institutions of Neoliberal Capitalism
Globalization
Deregulation
Weakening of social regulation
Privatization and contracting out of public goods and services
Cutbacks in social programs
Tax cuts for business and the rich
Marginalization of collective bargaining
Casualization of jobs
Unrestrained competition
Market principles penetrate inside corporations
Financialization
Neoliberal Capitalism and the Capital Accumulation Process
Neoliberal capitalism --and the previous regulated capitalism --are institutional structures that promote and stabilize the process of capital accumulation.
History shows a sequence of such “social structures of accumulation” emerging and, after one or a few decades, eventually is replaced by a new institutional structure.
Big Business Representatives Affiliated with the Committee for Economic Development,1944
Champion Paper
Coca-Cola
Eastman Kodak
Fidelity & Casualty Co
General Foods
Goldman, Sachs & Co
Hormel Foods
J. P. Morgan & Co.
Quaker Oats
R.H. Macy and Company
Scott Paper
Studebaker
Union Pacific Railroad Co.
Big Business Representatives Affiliated with the Committee
for Economic Development, 1948
Allegheny Ludlum Steel
Anderson, Clayton and Co
Arkansas Power & Light Company
Bankers Trust Company
B. F. Goodrich
Bristol-Myers
Bausch and Lomb Optical
Champion Paper
Chicago, Indianapolis & Louisville Railway
Cincinnati Street Railway Company
Cleveland Electric Illuminating Company
Coca Cola
Colgate-Palmolive
Continental Insurance Co
Corning Glass Works
Crown Zellerbach
Eastman Kodak
Federated Department Stores
Ford Motor
General Electric
General Foods
General Mills
Goldman, Sachs & Co
Hormel Foods
International Harvester
J.P. Stevens
Lehman Brothers
Libbey-Owens-Ford Glass
National Broadcasting Co
New York Life Insurance Co.
Northern Pacific Railway Company
Northwest Bancorporation
Owens-Illinois Glass
Pennsylvania Railroad Company
Philco
Procter & Gamble
Quaker Oats
R. H. Macy
Scott Paper
Shell Union Oil Co
Sinclair Coal Company
Texas Power and Light Company
United Air Lines
CED on Collective Bargaining
"To compensate for the weakness of their individual bargaining position, wage earners need the right to combine into organizations for collective bargaining.“ –
1944
“America cannot afford industrial strife… It would put in jeopardy not only the attainment of our domestic goals of high production and employment but the existence of our free economy as well.” --1947
“International peace and prosperity depend, to a large degree, upon the achievement of industrial peace and prosperity in this country.” --1947
CED on Keynesian Policy
“Constructive policies respecting taxation and public expenditure … and enlightened control over credit and money can greatly retard or prevent excessive swings of the business cycle….” and maintain “the flow of buying power needed to sustain high level of employment and productivity” –1946
“…monetary and fiscal policies are essential functions of government ... [that] encourage or discourage financial expansion." --1948
CED on Social Programs
The federal government “should continue to provide…a program of … unemployment insurance and old-age pensions –for the benefit of those who are unable to work or … are for any reason unable to find sufficiently remunerative employment to protect themselves against want. Such individual protection against hazards should be extended as rapidly as possible.” –1944
New View of Trade Unions
Henry Ford II in 1946 stated that the corporation had "no desire...to turn back the clock...We do not want to destroy the unions"
Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952: “I have no use for those -regardless of their political party --who hold some foolish dream of spinning the clock back to days when unorganized labor was a huddled, almost helpless mass.... Today in America unions have a secure place in our industrial life. Only a handful of unreconstructed reactionaries harbor the ugly thought of breaking unions. Only a fool would try to deprive working men and women of the right to join the union of their choice.
Why Big Business Supported Regulated Capitalism
1) Big business had been unable to crush organized labor and decided to strike a deal
2) Fear that the great depression would return
Fear that Depression Would Return
“This generation, after the worst depression … in our history, knows that our economy can have great fluctuations of production, employment and prices.”
“We also know what the costs of extreme swings in business conditions are: …
● the resulting deep sense of injustice and frustration;
● the growing receptivity to futile or dangerous ideasthat appear to promise relief from all ills…” (emphasis added) –1948CED document.
Why Big Business Supported Regulated Capitalism
3) Strength of Socialist and Communist parties in the Developed capitalist countries.
4) Emergence of a large bloc of Communist Party ruled states.
Selected Business Roundtable Members, 1972 and 1979
Allied Chemical Corporation*+
Aluminum Company of America*
American Can Company*+
American Electric Power Company*
AT&T+
Atlantic Richfield Company*+
B.F. Goodrich+
Bank of America+
Bethlehem Steel Corporation*+
Burlington Industries, Inc.*+
Burlington Northern, Inc.*+
Campbell Soup Company*+
Champion International Corp.*+
Chase Manhattan Bank*+
Chrysler Corporation*+
Citibank*+
Coca Cola+
Consolidated Edison*
Corning Glass Works*+
Crown Zellerbach Corp.*+
Dow Chemical Company*+
Firestone Tire & Rubber Co.*+
Ford Motor Company*+
General Dynamics Corporation*+
General Electric Company*+
General Foods Corp.*+
General Mills, Inc.*+
General Motors Corporation*+
Gulf Oil Corp.*+
International Harvester Company*+
International Nickel Co.*+
International Paper Co.*+
J.C. Penney Co., Inc.*+
J.P. Stevens+
Kennecott Copper Corporation*+
Mobil Oil Corporation*+
Morgan Guaranty Trust Co. of N.Y.+
Morgan Stanley & Co., Inc.+
Procter and Gamble+
R.H. Macy & Co., Inc.*+
Scott Paper Company*+
Sears, Roebuck and Co.*+
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company*+ Shell Oil Company*+
Eastern Air Lines*+
Eastman Kodak Company*+
Exxon Corporation*+
Federated Department Stores, Inc.*+
* Member in 1972
+ Member in 1979
Texas Power & Light Co.*
United Aircraft Corp.*
United States Steel Corporation*+
Business Roundtable Reports late 1970s
1977 report called for tax cuts for business to spur investment.
1979 report called for cuts in social security benefit levels with more reliance on private savings for retirement income.
1979 report criticized cost to business of social regulations.
1979 report proposed that the finding of an “adverse health effect” from bad air quality should be limited to conditions resulting in “permanent damage or incapacitating illness.”
Business Roundtable Reports 1981
“The business community feels strongly that all four parts of the economic recovery plan [Reagan Administration’s plan for cuts in social spending, tax cuts, regulatory reduction, and tight monetary policy] are essential, interrelated, and must be acted upon...”
“An economic crisis confronts the American people and requires far-reaching changes in economic policy.”
Political Donations
1964: More big business donations go to Lyndon Johnson than to Barry Goldwater.
Johnson won an overwhelming victory over Goldwater in the 1964 presidential election.
1980: Big business donations go overwhelmingly to Ronald Reagan.
Reagan defeated the incumbent President Jimmy Carter.
Figure 3.4. Rate of Profit in the U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Business Sector
1) Effect of Declining Rate of Profit
Business Roundtable slide show 1973:
“After-tax profits peaked in 1966 ... but declined sharply in the ensuing period of cost-squeeze”
“Starting in 1966 ... unit labor costs accelerated sharply, and the aftermath was excessive inflation and a severe profit squeeze.”
2) Expansion of Social Regulation
Starting in late 1960s government social regulation expanded greatly:
1) Environmental regulation
2) Occupational safety and health regulation
3) Consumer product safety regulation
This was not part of the original bargain.
More Reasons Why Big Business Supported Neoliberal Restructuring by the late 1970s
3) Intensifying international competition put pressure on big business to cut wages, taxes, and costs of complying with government regulation.
4) The Great Depression came to appear as a historical accident, and perhaps a result of government mistakes rather than any problem of the capitalist economy.
Role of Free-Market Ideas
Free-market theory claimed deregulation of business and markets, privatization, and tax cuts for business and rich “investors” would benefit everyone.
These measures would unleash saving and investment, creating jobs and leading to faster growth. Everyone would benefit.
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats (large and small)
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate, U.S.
Personal Saving as a
Percentage of Disposable
Personal Income
Investment in Two Periods
Consumer
Spending as a Percentage of GDP
Three Developments in Neoliberal Capitalism
1)Increasing inequality
bubbles
Annual Growth Rates of Wages and Salaries and Corporate Profit
Percentage
Increase in Average Real Family Income for Quintiles and the Top 5%
Income Shares of the Richest
1% and
Richest 0.1% as a Percentage of Total Income, 1920-2007
The Rising Tide Lifted only Some Boats
House
Three Unsustainable Trends
Three developments three trends unsustainable over the long run
1)Rising levels of household and financial sector debt
2)Toxic financial assets spread throughout the financial system.
3)Growing excess productive capacity
Debt
of Sectors of the U.S. Economy as a Percentage of GDP, 1948-2007
Outstanding Value of CDOs in the Global Economy, Billions of US Dollars
Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing for Business Cycle Peak Years
Explaining the Crisis of 2008
Neoliberal Institutions Asset Bubbles Financial Institutions’ Risky Behavior
What Lies Ahead?
The U.S. economy and much of the global economy are stuck in a structural crisis.
Austerity policy represents an attempt to double down on neoliberalism –but it cannot work as it did before 2008.
History suggests that stagnation will continue unless and until there is major institutional restructuring.
Three Possible Directions of Restructuring
1) Statist, nationalist form of capitalism
2) Regulated capitalism based on capital-labor compromise
3) Transition to an alternative socialist system
The Rise of a Strong Popular Movement?
If strong a strong popular movement arises, the capitalists might be pushed to compromise, leading to another period of regulated capitalism.
However, either statist or regulated capitalism would bring another long period of relatively rapid GDP growth. This would likely destroy civilization due to global climate change.
Socialism
If a strong popular movement arises, this will open the possibility of transition beyond capitalism.
A socialist system can bring rapid output growth but it need not do so.
A planned economy in developed countries could bring increasing economic welfare with declining production of goods.
Socialism would mean an economy that exists for working people rather than the other way around.