John Kenneth Galbraith: The Affluent Society - 1958

The Affluent Society

John Kenneth Galbraith

The Concept of the Conventional Wisdom

The Myth of Consumer Sovereignty

The Case for Social Balance

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom

[ from The Affluent Society]

Thisarticleoriginallyappearedin TheAffluentSociety, bymanyconsideredmymostinfluentialbook,andcertainlytheonewiththewidest audience.Itwaspublishedin1958intheUnitedStatesandthereafter inalargenumberofothercountries.Formanymonthsitwashighon the American bestseller list.

Therewereoccasionalmishapsinitsreception.Inthespringof1958, justafterpublication,CatherineGalbraithandIsetoutonalong journeytoLatinAmerica;thistookusdownthewestcoasttoEcuador, PeruandChile,acrosstoArgentinaandbackupalongtheeast.When wereachedMontevideo,whereIwasgivingamajorlecture,wordhad comeoftheintensediscussionofmyworkbackhome.SincetheMontevideopaperwastoputmyphotographonthefrontpage,theeditors hadtelephonedtogetsomedetailsonmynewdistinction,butunfortunatelytwowordswithasimilarsoundgotconfused:Iwasbillednotas aleadingeconomistbutasaleadingAmericanCommunist.Forbetter or for worse,my lecture was well attended.

Inthefollowingweeks,months,evenyears,thebookreceivedmuch attentionintheUnitedStatesandvariouslyaroundtheworld.This earlychapterwasdesignedtosetthegroundworkforachallengetothe acceptedbelief.Economicsandsocialthoughtgenerallycouldpursue thetruth,buttherewasnoquestionthatthelattercouldbeheavilyinfluencedbywhatitwasconvenientorsimplytraditionaltobelieve.It

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom 19

wasmypurposeor,inanycase,myhopetobringdiscussion,academic discussioninparticular,closertothereality.Theresistancecamefrom whatIcalledtheConventionalWisdom.Tomysurpriseand,noone shoulddoubt,mypleasure,thetermenteredthelanguage.Ithasacquiredanegative,slightlyinsultingconnotationandissometimesused bypeoplewithviewsdeeplyadversetominewhoareunawareofitsorigin.Few matters give me more satisfaction.

WhatfollowsismycharacterizationoftheConventionalWisdom.I shouldaddthattheselectionofthatnameowesmorethanalittleto Harvard colleagues on whom I tried out several possibilities.

Thefirstrequirement foranunderstandingofcontemporaryeconomicandsociallifeisaclearviewoftherelation betweeneventsandtheideaswhichinterpretthem,foreach ofthelatterhasanexistenceofitsownand,muchasitmayseema contradictioninterms,eachiscapableforaconsiderableperiodof pursuing an independent course.

Thereasonisnotdifficulttodiscover.Economic,likeothersocial, lifedoesnotconformtoasimpleandcoherentpattern.Onthecontrary,itoftenseemsincoherent,inchoateandintellectuallyfrustrating.Butonemusthaveanexplanationorinterpretationofeconomicbehavior.Neitherman’scuriositynorhisinherentegoallows himtoremaincontentedlyoblivioustoanythingthatissocloseto his life.

Becauseeconomicandsocialphenomenaaresoforbidding,orat leastsoseem,andbecausetheyyieldfewhardtestsofwhatexists andwhatdoesnot,theyaffordtotheindividualaluxurynotgiven byphysicalphenomena.Withinaconsiderablerange,heispermittedtobelievewhathepleases.Hemayholdwhateverviewofthis world he finds most agreeable or otherwise to his taste.

Asaconsequence,intheinterpretationofallsociallife,thereisa persistentandnever-endingcompetitionbetweenwhatisrightand

whatismerelyacceptable.Inthiscompetition,whileastrategicadvantagelieswithwhatexists,alltacticaladvantageiswiththeacceptable.Audiencesofallkindsmostapplaudwhattheylikebest. Andinsocialcomment,thetestofaudienceapproval,farmorethan thetestoftruth,comestoinfluencecomment.Thespeakerorwriter whoaddresseshisaudiencewiththeproclaimedintentoftellingthe hard,shockingfactsinvariablygoesontoexpoundwhattheaudience most wants to hear.

Justastruthultimatelyservestocreateaconsensus,sointhe shortrundoesacceptability.Ideascometobeorganizedaround whatthecommunityasawholeorparticularaudiencesfindacceptable.Andasthelaboratoryworkerdevoteshimselftodiscovering scientificverities,sotheghostwriterandthepublicrelationsman concernthemselveswithidentifyingtheacceptable.Iftheirclients arerewardedwithapplause,theseartisansaredeemedqualifiedin theircraft.Ifnot,theyhavefailed.Bysamplingaudiencereactionin advance,orbypretestingspeeches,articlesandothercommunications,the risk offailure can now be greatly minimized.

Numerousfactorscontributetotheacceptabilityofideas.Toa verylargeextent,ofcourse,weassociatetruthwithconvenience— withwhatmostcloselyaccordswithself-interestandpersonalwellbeingorpromisesbesttoavoidawkwardeffortorunwelcomedislocationoflife.Wealsofindhighlyacceptablewhatcontributes mosttoself-esteem.SpeakersbeforetheUnitedStatesChamberof Commercerarelydenigratethebusinessmanasaneconomicforce. ThosewhoappearbeforetheAFL-CIOarepronetoidentifysocial progresswithastrongtradeunionmovement.Butperhapsmost importantofall,peoplemostapproveofwhattheybestunderstand. Asjustnoted,economicandsocialbehaviorarecomplex,andto comprehendtheircharacterismentallytiring.Thereforeweadhere, asthoughtoaraft,tothoseideaswhichrepresentourunderstanding.Thisisaprimemanifestationofvestedinterest.Foravestedinterestinunderstandingismorepreciouslyguardedthananyother treasure.Itiswhymenreact,notinfrequentlywithsomethingakin toreligiouspassion,tothedefenseofwhattheyhavesolaboriously

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom 21

learned.Familiaritymaybreedcontemptinsomeareasofhuman behavior,butinthefieldofsocialideasitisthetouchstoneofacceptability.

Becausefamiliarityissuchanimportanttestofacceptability,the acceptableideashavegreatstability.Theyarehighlypredictable.It willbeconvenienttohaveanamefortheideaswhichareesteemed atanytimefortheiracceptability,anditshouldbeatermthatemphasizesthispredictability.Ishallrefertotheseideashenceforthas the Conventional Wisdom. ii

Theconventionalwisdomisnotthepropertyofanypoliticalgroup. Onagreatmanymodernsocialissues,asweshallseeinthecourse ofthisessay,theconsensusisexceedinglybroad.Nothingmuchdividesthosewhoareliberalsbycommonpoliticaldesignationfrom thosewhoareconservatives.Thetestofwhatisacceptableismuch thesameforboth.Onsomequestions,however,ideasmustbeaccommodatedtothepoliticalpreferencesoftheparticularaudience. Thetendencytomakethisadjustment,eitherdeliberatelyormore oftenunconsciously,isnotgreatlydifferentfordifferentpolitical groups.Theconservativeisledbydisposition,notunmixedwith pecuniaryself-interest,toadheretothefamiliarandtheestablished. Theseunderliehistestofacceptability.Buttheliberalbringsmoral fervorandpassion,evenasenseofrighteousness,totheideaswith which he ismostfamiliar.Whiletheideashecherishesaredifferent fromthoseoftheconservative,hewillbenolessemphaticinmakingfamiliarityatestofacceptability.Deviationintheformoforiginalityiscondemnedasfaithlessnessorbacksliding.A“good”liberal ora“triedandtrue”liberalora“trueblue”liberalisonewhoisadequatelypredictable.Thismeansthatheforswearsanyseriousstrivingtowardoriginality.InboththeUnitedStatesandBritain,inrecenttimes,AmericanliberalsandtheirBritishcounterpartsonthe lefthaveproclaimedthemselvesinsearchofnewideas.Toproclaim theneedfornewideashasserved,insomemeasure,asasubstitute

forthem.Thepoliticianwhounwiselytakesthisproclaimedneed seriouslyandurgessomethingnewwilloftenfindhimselfinserious trouble.

Wemay,asnecessary,speakoftheconventionalwisdomofconservatives or the conventional wisdom ofliberals.

Theconventionalwisdomisalsoarticulatedonalllevelsofsophistication.Atthehighestlevelsofsocialsciencescholarship,some noveltyofformulationorstatementisnotresisted.Onthecontrary, considerablestoreissetbythedeviceofputtinganoldtruthina newform,andminorheresiesaremuchcherished.Theveryvigor ofminordebatemakesitpossibletoexcludeasirrelevant,andwithoutseemingtobeunscientificorparochial,anychallengetothe frameworkitself.Moreover,withtimeandaidedbythedebate,the acceptedideasbecomeincreasinglyelaborate.Theyhavealarge literature,evenamystique.Thedefendersareabletosaythatthe challengersoftheconventionalwisdomhavenotmasteredtheirintricacies.Indeed,theseideascanbeappreciatedonlybyastable,orthodoxandpatientman—inbrief,bysomeonewhocloselyresemblesthemanofconventionalwisdom.Theconventionalwisdom havingbeenmademoreorlessidenticalwithsoundscholarship,its positionisvirtuallyimpregnable.Theskepticisdisqualifiedbyhis verytendencytogobrashlyfromtheoldtothenew.Werehea sound scholar,he would remain with the conventional wisdom. Atthesametime,inthehigherlevelsoftheconventionalwisdom,originalityremainshighlyacceptableintheabstract.Here againtheconventionalwisdommakesvigorousadvocacyoforiginality a substitute for originality itself.

iii

Asnoted,thehallmarkoftheconventionalwisdomisacceptability. Ithastheapprovalofthosetowhomitisaddressed.Therearemany reasonswhypeopleliketoheararticulatedthatwhichtheyapprove. Itservestheego:theindividualhasthesatisfactionofknowingthat otherandmorefamouspeoplesharehisconclusions.Tohearwhat hebelievesisalsoasourceofreassurance.Theindividualknows

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom 23

thatheissupportedinhisthoughts—thathehasnotbeenleft behindandalone.Further,tohearwhatoneapprovesservesthe evangelizinginstinct.Itmeansthatothersarealsohearingandare thereby in the process ofbeing persuaded.

Insomemeasure,thearticulationoftheconventionalwisdomis areligiousrite.Itisanactofaffirmationlikereadingaloudfromthe Scripturesorgoingtochurch.Thebusinessexecutivelisteningtoa luncheonaddressontheimmutablevirtuesoffreeenterpriseisalreadypersuaded,andsoarehisfellowlisteners,andallaresecurein theirconvictions.Indeed,althoughadisplayofraptattentionisrequired,theexecutivemaynotfeelitnecessarytolisten.Buthedoes placatethegodsbyparticipatingintheritual.Havingbeenpresent, maintainedattentionandhavingapplauded,hecandepartfeeling thattheeconomicsystemisalittlemoresecure.Scholarsgatherin scholarlyassemblagestohearinelegantstatementwhatallhave heardbefore.Again,itisnotanegligiblerite,foritspurposeisnot to convey knowledge but to beatify learning and the learned.

Withsoextensiveademand,itfollowsthataverylargepartof oursocialcomment—andnearlyallthatiswellregarded—isdevotedatanytimetoarticulatingtheconventionalwisdom.Tosome extent,thishasbeenprofessionalized.Individuals,mostnotablythe greattelevisionandradiocommentators,makeaprofessionof knowingandsayingwitheleganceandunctionwhattheiraudience willfindmostacceptable.But,ingeneral,thearticulationofthe conventionalwisdomisaprerogativeofacademic,publicorbusinessposition.Thusanyindividual,onbeingelectedpresidentofa collegeoruniversity,automaticallywinstherighttoenunciatethe conventionalwisdom.Itisoneoftherewardsofhighacademic rank,althoughsuchrankitselfisarewardforexpoundingtheconventional wisdom at a properly sophisticated level. Thehighpublicofficialisexpected,andindeedistosomeextent required,toexpoundtheconventionalwisdom.His,inmanyrespects,isthepurestcase.Beforeassumingoffice,heordinarilycommandslittleattention.Butontakinguphisposition,heisimmediatelyassumedtobegiftedwithdeepinsights.Hedoesnot,exceptin therarestinstances,writehisownspeechesorarticles,andtheseare

planned,draftedandscrupulouslyexaminedtoensuretheiracceptability.Theapplicationofanyothertest,e.g.,theireffectivenessasa simpledescriptionoftheeconomicorpoliticalreality,wouldberegarded as eccentric in the extreme.

Finally,theexpoundingoftheconventionalwisdomistheprerogativeofbusinesssuccess.Theheadofalmostanylargecorporation—GeneralMotors,GeneralElectric,IBM—isentitledtodoso. Andheisprivilegedtospeaknotonlyonbusinesspolicyandeconomicsbutalsoontheroleofgovernmentinthesociety,thefoundationsofforeignpolicyandthenatureofaliberaleducation.Inrecentyears,ithasbeenurgedthattoexpoundtheconventional wisdomisnotonlytheprivilegebutalsotheobligationofthebusinessman.“Iamconvincedthatbusinessmenmustwriteaswellas speak,inorderthatwemaybringtopeopleeverywheretheexciting andconfidentmessageofourfaithinthefreeenterprisewayof life...Whatachangewouldcomeinthisstruggleformen’sminds ifsuddenlytherecouldpouroutfromtheworldofAmericanbusiness a torrent ofintelligent,forward-looking thinking.”1 iv

Theenemyoftheconventionalwisdomisnotideasbutthemarch ofevents.AsIhavenoted,theconventionalwisdomaccommodates itselfnottotheworldthatitismeanttointerpretbuttotheaudience’sviewoftheworld.Sincethelatterremainswiththecomfortableandthefamiliarwhiletheworldmoveson,theconventional wisdomisalwaysindangerofobsolescence.Thisisnotimmediately fatal.Thefatalblowtotheconventionalwisdomcomeswhenthe conventionalideasfailsignallytodealwithsomecontingencyto whichobsolescencehasmadethempalpablyinapplicable.This, soonerorlater,mustbethefateofideaswhichhavelosttheirrelationtotheworld.Atthisstage,theirrelevancewilloftenbedramatizedbysomeindividual.Tohimwillaccruethecreditforoverthrowingtheconventionalwisdomandforinstallingthenewideas. Infact,hewillhaveonlycrystallizedinwordswhattheeventshave madeclear,althoughthisfunctionisnotaminorone.Meanwhile,

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom 25

liketheOldGuard,theconventionalwisdomdiesbutdoesnotsurrender.Societywithintransigentcrueltymaytransferitsexponents fromthecategoryofwisemantothatofoldfogyorevenstuffed shirt.

Thissequencecanbeillustratedfromscoresofexamples,ancient andmodern.Fordecadespriorto1776,menhadbeencatchingthe visionoftheliberalstate.TradersandmerchantsinEngland,inthe adjacentLowCountriesandintheAmericancolonieshadalready learnedthattheywereservedbestbyaminimumofgovernment restrictionratherthan,asintheconventionalwisdom,byamaximumofgovernmentguidanceandprotection.Ithadbecomeplain, inturn,thatliberaltradeandcommerce,nottheaccumulation ofbullion,astheconventionalwisdomheld,wasthemodernsource ofnationalpower.Menofirresponsibleoriginalityhadmadethe point.Voltairehadobservedthat“itisonlybecausetheEnglishhave becomemerchantsandtradersthatLondonhassurpassedParisin extentandinthenumberofitscitizens;thattheEnglishcanplace 200warshipsontheseaandsubsidizeallies.”2 Theseviewswere finallycrystallizedbyAdamSmithintheyearofAmericanindependence. TheWealthofNations, however,continuedtobeviewed withdiscontentandalarmbythemenoftheolderwisdom.Inthe funeralelegyforAlexanderHamiltonin1804,JamesKentcomplimentedhisdeceasedfriendonhavingresistedthe“fuzzyphilosophy”ofSmith.Foranothergenerationormore,orinallwestern countries,therewouldbesolemnwarningsthatthenotionofaliberal society was a reckless idea.

Throughthenineteenthcentury,liberalisminitsclassicalmeaninghavingbecometheconventionalwisdom,thereweresolemn warningsoftheirreparabledamagethatwouldbedonebytheFactoryActs,tradeunions,socialinsuranceandothersociallegislation. Liberalismwasafabricwhichcouldnotberaveledwithoutbeing rent.Yetthedesireforprotectionandsecurityandsomemeasureof equalityinbargainingpowerwouldnotdown.Intheend,itbecame afactwithwhichtheconventionalwisdomcouldnotdeal.The Webbs,LloydGeorge,LaFollette,Roosevelt,Beveridgeandothers crystallizedtheacceptanceofthenewfact.Theresultiswhatwecall

thewelfarestate.Theconventionalwisdomnowholdsthatthese measuressoftenedandcivilizedcapitalismandmadeittenable.

Therehaveneverceasedtobewarningsthatthebreakwithclassical liberalism was fatal.

Anotherinterestinginstanceoftheimpactofcircumstanceon theconventionalwisdomwasthatofthebalancedbudgetintimes ofdepression.Almostfromthebeginningoforganizedgovernment,thebalancedbudgetoritsequivalenthasbeenthe sinequa non ofsoundandsensiblemanagementofthepublicpurse.The spendthrifttendenciesofprincesandrepublicsalikewerecurbedby therulethattheymustunfailinglytakeinasmuchmoneyasthey paidout.Theconsequencesofviolatingthisrulehadalwaysbeen unhappyinthelongrunandnotinfrequentlyintheshort.Ancientlyitwasthepracticeofprincestocoverthedeficitbyclipping ordebasingthecoinsandspendingthemetalsosaved.Theresult invariablywastoraisepricesandlowernationalself-esteem.In moderntimes,theissuanceofpapermoneyorgovernmentborrowingfromthebankshadledtothesameresults.Inconsequence,the conventionalwisdomhademphasizedstronglytheimportanceof an annually balanced budget.

Butmeanwhiletheunderlyingrealityhadgraduallychanged.The rulerequiringabalancedbudgetwasdesignedforgovernmentsthat wereinherentlyorrecurrentlyirresponsibleonfiscalmatters.Until thelastcentury,therehadbeennoother.ThenintheUnitedStates, EnglandandtheBritishCommonwealthandEurope,governments begantocalculatethefiscalconsequencesoftheiractions.Safetyno longer depended on confining them within arbitrary rules.

Ataboutthesametime,thereappearedthephenomenonof thetrulydevastatingdepression.Insuchadepression,men,plant andmaterialswereunemployedenmasse;theextrademandfrom theextraspendinginducedbyadeficit—thecounterpartoftheextrametalmadeavailablefromtheclippedcoinage—didnotraise pricesuniquely.Rather,itmostlyreturnedidlemenandplantto work.Theeffect,asitwere,washorizontallyonproductionrather thanverticallyonprices.Andsuchpriceincreasesasdidoccurwere

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom 27

farfrombeinganunmitigatedmisfortune;onthecontrary,theyretrieved a previous,painful decline.

Theconventionalwisdomcontinuedtoemphasizethebalanced budget.Audiencescontinuedtorespondtothewarningsofthedisasterwhichwouldbefallwerethisrulenotrespected.TheshatteringcircumstancewastheGreatDepression.ThisledintheUnited Statestoaseverereductionintherevenuesofthefederalgovernment;italsobroughtpressureforavarietyofreliefandwelfareexpenditures.Abalancedbudgetmeantincreasingtaxratesandreducingpublicexpenditure.Viewedinretrospect,itwouldbehard toimagineabetterdesignforreducingboththeprivateandthe publicdemandforgoods,aggravatingdeflation,increasingunemploymentandaddingtothegeneralsuffering.Intheconventional wisdom,nonetheless,thebalancedbudgetremainedofparamount importance.PresidentHooverintheearlythirtiescalleditan“absolutenecessity,”“themostessentialfactortoeconomicrecovery,”“the imperativeandimmediatestep,”“indispensable,”“thefirstnecessity oftheNation,”and“thefoundationofallpublicandprivatefinancialstability.”3 Economistsandprofessionalobserversofpublicaffairsagreedalmostwithoutexception.Almosteveryonecalledupon foradviceintheearlyyearsofthedepressionwasimpelledbythe conventionalwisdomtoofferproposalsdesignedtomakethings worse.Theconsensusembracedbothliberalsandconservatives.

FranklinD.Rooseveltwaselectedin1932withastrongcommitment toreducedexpendituresandabalancedbudget.InhisspeechacceptingtheDemocraticnominationhesaid,“Revenuemustcover expendituresbyonemeansoranother.Anygovernment,likeany family,canforayearspendalittlemorethanitearns.ButyouandI knowthatacontinuationofthathabitmeansthepoorhouse.”One oftheearlyactsofhisadministrationwasaneconomydrivewhich includedahorizontalslashinpublicpay.Mr.LewisW.Douglas, throughadistinguishedlifeanotableexemplaroftheconventional wisdom,madethequestforabalancedbudgetintoapersonalcrusade and ultimately broke with the administration on the issue.

Infact,circumstanceshadalreadytriumphedovertheconven-

tionalwisdom.BythesecondyearoftheHooveradministration, thebudgetwasirretrievablyoutofbalance.Inthefiscalyearending in1932,receiptsweremuchlessthanhalfofspending.Thebudget wasneverbalancedduringthedepression.Butnotuntil1936did boththenecessitiesandadvantagesofthiscoursebegintotriumph inthefieldofideas.Inthatyear,JohnMaynardKeyneslaunchedhis formalassaultin TheGeneralTheoryofEmploymentInterestand Money. Thereafter,theconventionalinsistenceonthebalancedbudgetunderallcircumstancesandatalllevelsofeconomicactivitywas inretreat,andKeyneswasonhiswaytobeingthenewfountainhead ofconventionalwisdom.BytheverylatesixtiesaRepublicanPresidentwouldproclaimhimselfaKeynesian.Itwouldbeanarticleof conventionalfaiththattheKeynesianremedies,whenputinreverse, wouldbeacureforinflation,afaiththatcircumstanceswouldsoon undermine. v

Iwillfindfrequentoccasiontoadverttotheconventionalwisdom —tothestructureofideasthatisbasedonacceptability—andto thosewhoarticulateit.Thesereferencesmustnotbethoughtto haveawhollyinvidiousconnotation.(Thewarningisnecessarybecause,asnoted,wesetgreatostensiblestorebyintellectualinnovation,thoughinfactweresistit.Hence,thoughwevaluetherigorous adherencetoconventionalideas,weneveracclaimit.)Fewmenare unusefulandthemanofconventionalwisdomisnot.Everysociety mustbeprotectedfromatoofacileflowofthought.Inthefieldof socialcomment,agreatstreamofintellectualnovelties,ifallwere takenseriously,wouldbedisastrous.Menwouldbeswayedtothis actionorthat;economicandpoliticallifewouldbeerraticand rudderless.IntheCommunistcountries,stabilityofideasandsocial purposeisachievedbyformaladherencetoanofficiallyproclaimed doctrine.Deviationisstigmatizedas“incorrect.”Inoursociety,a similarstabilityisenforcedfarmoreinformallybytheconventional wisdom.Ideasneedtobetestedbytheirabilityincombinationwith

The Concept ofthe Conventional Wisdom

eventstoovercomeinertiaandresistance.Thisinertiaandresistance the conventional wisdom provides.

Norisittobesupposedthatthemanofconventionalwisdomis anobjectofpity.Apartfromhissociallyusefulrole,hehascometo goodtermswithlife.Hecanthinkofhimselfwithjusticeassocially elect,forsociety,infact,accordshimtheapplausewhichhisideas aresoarrangedastoevoke.Secureinthisapplause,heiswellarmed againsttheannoyanceofdissent.Hisbargainistoexchangeastrong andevenloftypositioninthepresentforaweakoneinthefuture. Inthepresent,heisquestionedwithrespect,ifnotatgreatlength, bycongressionalcommittees;hewalksneartheheadoftheacademicprocessions;heappearsonsymposia;heisarespectedfigure attheCouncilonForeignRelations;heishailedattestimonialbanquets.Hedoesriskbeingdevastatedbyfuturehostileevents,butby thenhemaybedead.Onlyposterityisunkindtothemanofconventionalwisdom,andallposteritydoesisburyhiminablanketof neglect.However,somewhat more serious issues are at stake. vi

Nosocietyseemsevertohavesuccumbedtoboredom.Manhasdevelopedanobviouscapacityforsurvivingthepompousreiteration ofthecommonplace.Theconventionalwisdomprotectsthecommunityinsocialthoughtandaction,buttherearealsogravedrawbacksandevendangersinasystemofthoughtwhich,byitsvery natureanddesign,avoidsaccommodationtocircumstancesuntil changeisdramaticallyforceduponit.Inlargeareasofeconomicaffairs,themarchofevents—aboveall,theincreaseinourwealthand popularwell-being—hasagainlefttheconventionalwisdomsadly obsolete.Itmayhavebecomeinimicaltoourhappiness.Ithascome tohaveabearingonthelargerquestionsofcivilizedsurvival.So whileitwouldbemuchmorepleasant(andalsovastlymoreprofitable)toarticulatetheconventionalwisdom,Iamhereinvolvedin thenormallyunfruitfuleffortofanattackuponit.Iamnotwholly barrenofhope,forcircumstanceshavebeendealingtheconven-

tionalwisdomanewseriesofheavyblows.Itisonlyaftersuch damagehasbeendone,aswehaveseen,thatideashavetheiropportunity.

Keynes,inhismostfamousobservation,notedthatweareruled byideasandbyverylittleelse.Intheimmediatesense,thisistrue. Andhewasrightinattributingimportancetoideasasopposedto thesimpleinfluenceofpecuniaryvestedinterest.Buttheruleof ideasisonlypowerfulinaworldthatdoesnotchange.Ideasareinherentlyconservative.Theyyieldnottotheattackofotherideas but,asImaynoteoncemore,tothemassiveonslaughtofcircumstance with which they cannot contend.

notes

1.ClarenceB.Randall, ACreedforFreeEnterprise (Boston:Atlantic–Little,Brown,1952),pp. 3,5.

2.“TenthPhilosophicalLetter.”QuotedbyHenrySée, ModernCapitalism (New York:Adelphi,1928),p. 87.

3.ArthurM.Schlesinger,Jr., TheCrisisoftheOldOrder (Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1956),p. 232.

The Myth ofConsumer Sovereignty

[ from The Affluent Society]

Myargumentinthischapterof TheAffluentSociety wasoneofthe morecontroversialexercisesofmylife,foritchallengedconsumersovereignty,amajorprofessionaltruthofeconomics.Nothinghadbeen moreimportantinacceptedeconomicbeliefthanthenotionthateconomiclifeisultimatelyguidedbythesovereignconsumer.Itisconsumerchoicethatgovernswhatisproduced,thatandchangingtechnology;andinsomemeasuretechnologicalchangeitselfoccursin responsetoconsumerneedandinservicetoconsumersatisfaction.I argueherethatadeterminingfactorinproduction—perhapsthedeterminingfactor—is,infact,notconsumerchoicebut,insubstantial measure,producermanipulationofconsumerresponse.Salesmanship, designandinnovationareallutilizedtoattractandcapturetheconsumer.

Inorthodoxeconomiccirclesmythesisattractedanearlyuniversal objection.ItwasenthusiasticallypointedoutthattheFordMotor CompanyhadatgreatexpensedevelopedtheEdsel,whichthendidn’t sell.IwascalledtoadiscussioninNewYorkCityattendedoverwhelminglybyadvertisingmenwhoweregiventounanimousdenunciation ofmyviews.Intheend,however,circumstance,fact,hadtheireffect: theestablishedbeliefwasundermined;perhapsitcouldevenbesaid thatconsumersovereigntywassetasideasadominantfactorinthe economicsystem.Frommyreadingoftheliterature,includingthetextbooks,itnolongerenjoysitsoldroleasthecenteroftruthinshaping the economy.

Someauthorsregretcontroversy;onafewoccasionssohaveI.This was one ofthe instances where I much enjoyed it.

Thenotion thatwantsdonotbecomelessurgentthemore amplytheindividualissuppliedisbroadlyrepugnantto commonsense.Itissomethingtobebelievedonlybythose whowishtobelieve.Yettheconventionalwisdommustbetackled onitsownterrain.Intertemporalcomparisonsofanindividual’s stateofminddorestontechnicallyvulnerableground.Whocansay forsurethatthedeprivationwhichafflictshimwithhungerismore painfulthanthedeprivationwhichafflictshimwithenvyofhis neighbor’snewcar?Inthetimethathaspassedsincehewaspoor, hissoulmayhavebecomesubjecttoanewanddeepersearing.And whereasocietyisconcerned,comparisonsbetweenmarginalsatisfactionswhenitispoorandthosewhenitisaffluentwillinvolvenot onlythesameindividualatdifferenttimesbutdifferentindividuals atdifferenttimes.Thescholarwhowishestobelievethatwithincreasingaffluencethereisnoreductionintheurgencyofdesires andgoodsisnotwithoutpointsfordebate.Howeverplausiblethe caseagainsthim,itcannotbeproven.Inthedefenseoftheconventional economic wisdom,this amounts almost to invulnerability. However,thereisaflawinthecase.Iftheindividual’swantsareto beurgent,theymustbeoriginalwithhim.Theycannotbeurgentif theymustbecontrivedforhim.And,aboveall,theymustnotbe contrivedbytheprocessofproductionbywhichtheyaresatisfied. Forthismeansthatthewholecasefortheurgencyofproduction, basedontheurgencyofwants,fallstotheground.Onecannotdefendproductionassatisfyingwantsifthatproductioncreatesthe wants.

Wereitsothatamanonarisingeachmorningwasassailedbydemonswhichinstilledinhimapassionsometimesforsilkshirts, sometimesforkitchenware,sometimesforchamberpotsandsometimesfororangesquash,therewouldbeeveryreasontoapplaudthe

The Myth ofConsumer Sovereignty

efforttofindthegoods,howeverodd,thatquenchedthisflame.But shoulditbethathispassionwastheresultofhisfirsthavingcultivatedthedemons,andshoulditalsobethathisefforttoallayit stirredthedemonstoevergreaterandgreatereffort,therewouldbe questionastohowrationalwashissolution.Unlessrestrainedby conventionalattitudes,hemightwonderifthesolutionlaywith more goods or fewer demons.

Soitisthatifproductioncreatesthewantsitseekstosatisfy,orif thewantsemerge paripassu withtheproduction,thentheurgency ofthewantscannolongerbeusedtodefendtheurgencyoftheproduction.Production only fills a void that it has itselfcreated.

ii

Thepointissocentralthatitmustbepressed.Consumerwantscan havebizarre,frivolousorevenimmoralorigins,andanadmirable casecanstillbemadeforasocietythatseekstosatisfythem.Butthe casecannotstandifitistheprocessofsatisfyingwantsthatcreates thewants.Forthentheindividualwhourgestheimportanceofproductiontosatisfythesewantsispreciselyinthepositionoftheonlookerwhoapplaudstheeffortsofthesquirreltokeepabreastofthe wheel that is propelled by its own efforts.

Thatwantsare,infact,thefruitofproductionwillnowbedenied byfewseriousscholars.Andaconsiderablenumberofeconomists, thoughnotalwaysinfullknowledgeoftheimplications,haveconcededthepoint.LordKeynesonceobservedthatneedsof“thesecondclass,”i.e.,thosethataretheresultofeffortstokeepabreast oraheadofone’sfellowbeing,“mayindeedbeinsatiable;forthe higherthegenerallevel,thehigherstillarethey.”1 Andemulation hasalwaysplayedaconsiderableroleintheviewsofwantcreation ofothereconomists.Oneman’sconsumptionbecomeshisneighbor’swish.Thisalreadymeansthattheprocessbywhichwantsare satisfiedisalsotheprocessbywhichwantsarecreated.Themore wants that are satisfied,the more new ones are born.

However,theargumenthasbeencarriedfarther.Aleadingmoderntheoristofconsumerbehavior,ProfessorJamesDuesenberry,

hasstatedexplicitlythat“oursisasocietyinwhichoneoftheprincipalsocialgoalsisahigherstandardofliving... [This]hasgreat significanceforthetheoryofconsumption...thedesiretogetsuperiorgoodstakesonalifeofitsown.Itprovidesadrivetohigher expenditurewhichmayevenbestrongerthanthatarisingoutofthe needswhicharesupposedtobesatisfiedbythatexpenditure.”2 The implicationsofthisviewareimpressive.Thenotionofindependentlyestablishedneednowsinksintothebackground.Becausethe societysetsgreatstorebyitsabilitytoproduceahighlivingstandard,itevaluatespeoplebytheproductstheypossess.Theurge toconsumeisfatheredbythevaluesystemwhichemphasizesthe abilityofthesocietytoproduce.Themorethatisproduced,the morethatmustbeownedinordertomaintaintheappropriate prestige.Thelatterisanimportantpoint,for,withoutgoingasfaras Duesenberryinreducinggoodstotheroleofsymbolsofprestigein theaffluentsociety,itisplainthathisargumentfullyimpliesthat theproductionofgoodscreatesthewantsthatthegoodsarepresumed to satisfy.3 iii

Theevenmoredirectlinkbetweenproductionandwantsisprovidedbytheinstitutionsofmodernadvertisingandsalesmanship. Thesecannotbereconciledwiththenotionofindependentlydetermineddesires,fortheircentralfunctionistocreatedesires—to bringintobeingwantsthatpreviouslydidnotexist.4 Thisisaccomplishedbytheproducerofthegoodsorathisbehest.Abroadempiricalrelationshipexistsbetweenwhatisspentontheproduction ofconsumergoodsandwhatisspentinsynthesizingthedesiresfor thatproduction.Anewconsumerproductmustbeintroducedwith asuitableadvertisingcampaigntoarouseaninterestinit.Thepath foranexpansionofoutputmustbepavedbyasuitableexpansionin theadvertisingbudget.Outlaysforthemanufacturingofaproduct arenotmoreimportantinthestrategyofmodernbusinessenterprisethanoutlaysforthemanufacturingofdemandfortheproduct.Noneofthisisnovel.Allwouldberegardedaselementaryby

The Myth ofConsumer Sovereignty

themostretardedstudentinthenation’smostprimitiveschoolof businessadministration.Thecostofthiswantformationisformidable.Asearlyas1987,totaladvertisingexpenditureintheUnited States—though,asnoted,notallofitmaybeassignedtothesynthesisofwants—amountedtoapproximatelyonehundredandten billiondollars.Theincreaseinpreviousyearswasbyanestimated sixbilliondollarsayear.Obviously,suchoutlaysmustbeintegrated withthetheoryofconsumerdemand.Theyaretoobigtobeignored.

Butsuchintegrationmeansrecognizingthatwantsaredependentonproduction.Itaccordstotheproducerthefunctionbothof makingthegoodsandofmakingthedesireforthem.Itrecognizes thatproduction,notonlypassivelythroughemulation,butactively throughadvertisingandrelatedactivities,createsthewantsitseeks to satisfy.

ThebusinessmanandthelayreaderwillbepuzzledovertheemphasiswhichIgivetoaseeminglyobviouspoint.Thepointisindeedobvious.Butitisonewhich,toasingulardegree,economists haveresisted.Theyhavesensed,asthelaymandoesnot,thedamage toestablishedideaswhichlurksintheserelationships.Asaresult, incredibly,theyhaveclosedtheireyes(andears)tothemostobtrusive ofall economic phenomena,namely,modern want creation.

Thisisnottosaythattheevidenceaffirmingthedependenceof wantsonadvertisinghasbeenentirelyignored.Itisonereasonwhy advertisinghassolongbeenregardedwithsuchuneasinessbyeconomists.Hereissomethingwhichcannotbeaccommodatedeasilyto existingtheory.Moreperviousscholarshavespeculatedontheurgencyofdesireswhicharesoobviouslythefruitofsuchexpensively contrivedcampaignsforpopularattention.Isanewbreakfastcereal ordetergentsomuchwantedifsomuchmustbespenttocompelin theconsumerthesenseofwant?Buttherehasbeenlittletendency togoontoexaminetheimplicationsofthisforthetheoryofconsumerdemandandevenlessfortheimportanceofproductionand productiveefficiency.Thesehaveremainedsacrosanct.Moreoften, theuneasinesshasbeenmanifestedinageneraldisapprovalofadvertisingandadvertisingmen,leadingtotheoccasionalsuggestion

thattheyshouldn’texist.Suchsuggestionshaveusuallybeenillreceived in the advertising business.

Andsothenotionofindependentlydeterminedwantsstillsurvives.Inthefaceofalltheforcesofmodernsalesmanship,itstill rules,almostundefiled,inthetextbooks.Anditstillremainsthe economist’smission—andonfewmattersisthepedagogysofirm —toseekthemeansforfillingthesewants.Thisbeingso,productionremainsofprimeurgency.Wehavehere,perhaps,theultimate triumphoftheconventionalwisdominitsresistancetotheevidenceoftheeyes.Toequalit,onemustimagineahumanitarian whowaslongagopersuadedofthegrievousshortageofhospitalfacilitiesinthetown.Hecontinuestoimportunethepassersbyfor moneyformorebedsandrefusestonoticethatthetowndoctoris deftlyknockingoverpedestrianswithhiscartokeepuptheoccupancy.

Inunravelingthecomplex,weshouldalwaysbecarefulnotto overlooktheobvious.Thefactthatwantscanbesynthesizedbyadvertising,catalyzedbysalesmanshipandshapedbythediscreetmanipulationsofthepersuadersshowsthattheyarenotveryurgent.A manwhoishungryneedneverbetoldofhisneedforfood.Ifheis inspiredbyhisappetite,heisimmunetotheinfluenceoftheadvertisingagency.Thelatteriseffectiveonlywiththosewhoaresofar removedfromphysicalwantthattheydonotalreadyknowwhat they want.Only in this state are men open to persuasion. iv

Thegeneralconclusionofthesepagesisofsuchimportancethatit hadperhapsbestbeputwithsomeformality.Asasocietybecomes increasinglyaffluent,wantsareincreasinglycreatedbytheprocess bywhichtheyaresatisfied.Thismayoperatepassively.Increases inconsumption,thecounterpartofincreasesinproduction,act bysuggestionoremulationtocreatewants.Expectationriseswith attainment.Orproducersmayproceedactivelytocreatewants throughadvertisingandsalesmanship.Wantsthuscometodepend onoutput.Intechnicalterms,itcannolongerbeassumedthatwel-

The Myth ofConsumer Sovereignty 37

fareisgreateratanall-roundhigherlevelofproductionthanata lowerone.Itmaybethesame.Thehigherlevelofproductionhas, merely,ahigherlevelofwantcreationnecessitatingahigherlevelof wantsatisfaction.Therewillbefrequentoccasiontorefertotheway wantsdependontheprocessbywhichtheyaresatisfied.Itwillbe convenient to call it the Dependence Effect.

Wemaynowcontemplatebrieflytheconclusionstowhichthis analysis has brought us.

Plainly,thetheoryofconsumerdemandisapeculiarlytreacherousfriendofthepresentgoalsofeconomics.Atfirstglance,itseems todefendthecontinuingurgencyofproductionandourpreoccupationwithitasagoal.Theeconomistdoesnotenterintothedubiousmoralargumentsabouttheimportanceorvirtueofthewants tobesatisfied.Hedoesn’tpretendtocomparementalstatesofthe sameordifferentpeopleatdifferenttimesandtosuggestthatoneis lessurgentthananother.Thedesireisthere.Thatforhimissufficient.Hesetsaboutinaworkmanlikewaytosatisfydesire,andaccordingly,hesetstheproperstorebytheproductionthatdoes.Like woman’s,his work is never done.

Butthisrationalization,handsomelythoughitseemstoserve, turnsdestructivelyonthosewhoadvanceitonceitisconcededthat wantsarethemselvesbothpassivelyanddeliberatelythefruitsofthe processbywhichtheyaresatisfied.Thentheproductionofgoods satisfiesthewantsthattheconsumptionofthesegoodscreatesor thattheproducersofgoodssynthesize.Productioninducesmore wantsandtheneedformoreproduction.Sofar,inamajortourde force,theimplicationshavebeenignored.Butthisobviouslyisa perilous solution.It cannot long survive discussion.

Amongthemanymodelsofthegoodsociety,noonehasurged thesquirrelwheel.Moreover,thewheelisnotonethatrevolveswith perfectsmoothness.Asidefromitsdubiousculturalcharm,there areseriousstructuralweaknesseswhichmayonedayembarrassus. Forthemoment,however,itissufficienttoreflectonthedifficult terrainwearetraversing.Notthegoodsbuttheemploymentprovidedbytheirproductionissomethingbywhichwesetmajorstore.

Nowwefindourconcernforgoodsfurtherundermined.Itdoesnot

ariseinspontaneousconsumerneed.Rather,thedependenceeffect meansthatitgrowsoutoftheprocessofproductionitself.Ifproductionistoincrease,thewantsmustbeeffectivelycontrived.Inthe absenceofthecontrivance,theincreasewouldnotoccur.Thisisnot trueofallgoods,butthatitistrueofasubstantialpartissufficient. Itmeansthatsincethedemandforthispartwouldnotexistwereit notcontrived,itsutilityorurgency, ex contrivance,iszero.Ifweregardthisproductionasmarginal,wemaysaythatthemarginalutilityofpresentaggregateoutput, ex advertisingandsalesmanship,is zero.Clearlytheattitudesandvalueswhichmakeproductionthe centralachievementofoursocietyhavesomeexceptionallytwisted roots.

Perhapsthethingmostevidentofallishownewandvariedbecometheproblemswemustponderwhenwebreakthenexuswith theworkofRicardoandfacetheeconomicsofaffluenceofthe worldinwhichwelive.Itiseasytoseewhytheconventionalwisdomresistssostoutlysuchchange.Itisfar,farbetterandmuchsafer tohaveafirmanchorinnonsensethantoputoutonthetroubled seas ofthought. notes

1.J.M.Keynes,“EconomicPossibilitiesforOurGrandchildren,” Essaysin Persuasion (London:Macmillan,1931),p. 365.

2.JamesS.Duesenberry, Income,SavingandtheTheoryofConsumerBehavior (Cambridge,Mass.:Harvard University Press,1949),p. 28.

3.Amorerecentanddefinitivestudyofconsumerdemandhasadded evenmoresupport.ProfessorsHouthakkerandTaylor,inastatistical studyofthedeterminantsofdemand,foundthatformostproducts priceandincome,theaccepteddeterminants,werelessimportantthan pastconsumptionoftheproduct.This“psychologicalstock,”asthey calledit,concedestheweaknessoftraditionaltheory;currentdemand cannotbeexplainedwithoutrecoursetopastconsumption.Suchdemandnurturestheneedforitsownincrease.H.S.Houthakkerand L.D.Taylor, ConsumerDemandintheUnitedStates, 2nded.,enlarged (Cambridge,Mass.:Harvard University Press,1970).

4.Advertisingisnotasimplephenomenon.Itisalsoimportantincompetitivestrategy,andwantcreationis,ordinarily,acomplementaryre-

The Myth ofConsumer Sovereignty

sultofeffortstoshiftthedemandcurveoftheindividualfirmatthe expenseofothersor(lessimportantly,Ithink)tochangeitsshapeby increasingthedegreeofproductdifferentiation.Someofthefailureof economiststoidentifyadvertisingwithwantcreationmaybeattributedtotheundueattentionthatitsuseinpurelycompetitivestrategy hasattracted.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatthecompetitivemanipulationofconsumerdesireisonlypossible,atleastonanyappreciable scale,when such need is not strongly felt.

The Case for Social Balance

[ from The Affluent Society]

Whenthiswasfirstpublishedin TheAffluentSociety, Icalledit“The TheoryofSocialBalance”andthereafter,inslightlystrongerterms, “TheNatureofSocialBalance.”ThesubjectisonewithwhichIhave beencloselyassociatedovertheyears:thecontrastbetweenourwonderfulaffluenceinprivategoodsandthepoverty-riddencharacterof muchofourpubliceconomy.Ilatermadereferencetoonemore-thanadequateadditiontopublicexpenditure:thatfordefense.This,none shoulddoubt,isalsotheresultofthesuperiorpowerofprivateindustry,thegreatweaponsproducersinparticular.Theyhavejoinedwith thePentagontotakeoverthispartofthebudget,andwiththeacquiescenceorpositivesupportofboththemajorpoliticalparties.Theprivate economy here clearly dominates public expenditure.

Thischapterfollowsinallmajordetailitsfirstpresentation,andthe material,inturn,hashadaprominentpartinmyspeechandwriting eversince.Whensocialbalanceisextendedtoembracenuclearweaponry,Iregardtheproblemitposesasperhapsthemosturgentofour time.

Myargumenthasnotbeenwithouteffect.WhenIhadfinished writingthebook,Iwasingravedoubtaboutusingthedescriptionof thecaranditsoccupantsastheytraveloutthroughthestreetsofthe citytothesurroundingcountrysideandruralparkandseeindramaticformthedifferencebetweenthepublicandtheprivateestates.I thoughtthispassagemightmakemypointtoodramaticallyortooblatantly.Intheend,Iincludedit,anditwas,byawidemargin,themost

quotedpartofthechapterandperhaps,indeed,ofthewhole Affluent Society. Asanengagingconsequence,IwasappointedtoasmallgovernmentalcommissionontheproblemoftheroadsidesinVermont,a statewhereourfamilyhaslivedmanyofoursummers.Withlittledisagreement,thecommissionurgedthattheroadsbeprotected,including,amongotherthings,abolishingbillboardsoutsidethecities.The resulthasbeenasubstantialimprovementofthecountrysideanda considerableencouragementtotourism;peoplenowmotortoVermont toseetheunobstructedmeadows,forestsandmountains.Environmentalcontrolcanactuallybegoodforbusiness,somethingIdidnotoriginally suspect.

Itisnottillitisdiscoveredthathighindividualincomeswill notpurchasethemassofmankindimmunityfromcholera, typhus,andignorance,stilllesssecurethemthepositiveadvantagesofeducationalopportunityandeconomicsecurity, thatslowlyandreluctantly,amidpropheciesofmoraldegenerationandeconomicdisaster,societybeginstomakecollectiveprovisionforneedsnoordinaryindividual,evenifhe works overtime all his life,can provide himself.

r.h.tawney 1

A centralproblem oftheproductivesocietyiswhatit produces.Thismanifestsitselfinanimplacabletendencyto provideanopulentsupplyofsomethingsandaniggardly yieldofothers.Thisdisparitycarriestothepointwhereitisacause ofsocialdiscomfortandsocialunhealth.Thelinewhichdividesthe areaofwealthfromtheareaofpovertyisroughlythatwhichdivides privatelyproducedandmarketedgoodsandservicesfrompublicly renderedservices.Ourwealthintheformerisnotonlyinstartling contrastwiththemeagernessofthelatter,butourwealthinprivatelyproducedgoodsis,toamarkeddegree,thecauseofcrisisin thesupplyofpublicservices.Forwehavefailedtoseetheimpor -

tance,indeedtheurgentneed,ofmaintainingabalancebetween the two.

Thisdisparitybetweenourprivateandpublicgoodsandservices (expendituresfordefenseandafewotherfavoreditemsapart)isno matterofsubjectivejudgment.Onthecontrary,itisthesourceof themostextensivecomment,whichonlystopsshortofthedirect contrastbeingmadehere.Inrecentyears,thenewspapersofany majorcity—thoseofNewYorkareanexcellentexample—have tolddailyoftheshortagesandshortcomingsintheelementarymunicipalandmetropolitanservices.Schoolsareoldandovercrowded. Thepoliceforceisinadequate.Theparksandplaygroundsareinsufficient.Streetsandemptylotsarefilthy,andthesanitationdepartmentisunderequippedandinneedofstaff.Accesstothecityby thosewhoworkthereisuncertainandpainfulandbecomingmore so.Internaltransportationisovercrowded,unhealthfulanddirty. Soistheair.Parkingonthestreetsshouldbeprohibited,butthereis nospaceelsewhere.Thesedeficienciesarenotinnewandnovelservicesbutinoldandestablishedones.Citieshavelongswepttheir streets,helpedtheirpeoplemovearound,educatedthem,keptorder andprovidedhorserailsforequipageswhichsoughttopause.That theirresidentsshouldhaveanontoxicsupplyofairsuggestsnorevolutionary dalliance with socialism.

Inmostofthelastmanyyears,thediscussionofthispublicpovertywasmatchedbythestoriesofever-increasingopulenceinprivatelyproducedgoods.TheGrossDomesticProductwasrising.So wereretailsales.Sowaspersonalincome.Laborproductivityalso advanced.Theautomobilesthatcouldnotbeparkedwerebeing producedatanexpandedrate.Thechildren,thoughsubjectinthe playgroundstotheaffectionateinterestofadultswithoddtastes anddisposedtoincreasinglyimaginativeformsofdelinquency, wereadmirablyequippedwithtelevisionsets.Thecareandrefreshmentofthemindwasprincipallyinthepublicdomain.Schools,in consequence,wereoftenseverelyovercrowdedandusuallyunderprovided,andthesamewasevenmoreoftentrueofthemental hospitals.

Thecontrastwasandremainsevidentnotalonetothosewho read.Thefamilywhichtakesitsmauveandcerise,air-conditioned, power-steeredandpower-brakedautomobileoutforatourpasses throughcitiesthatarebadlypaved,madehideousbylitter,blighted buildings,billboardsandpostsforwiresthatshouldlongsincehave beenputunderground.Theypassonintoacountrysidethathas beenrenderedlargelyinvisiblebycommercialart.(Thegoods whichthelatteradvertisehaveanabsolutepriorityinourvaluesystem.Suchaestheticconsiderationsasaviewofthecountrysideaccordinglycomesecond.Onsuchmatters,weareconsistent.)They picniconexquisitelypackagedfoodfromaportableiceboxbyapollutedstreamandgoontospendthenightataparkwhichisamenacetopublichealthandmorals.Justbeforedozingoffonanair mattress,beneathanylontent,amidthestenchofdecayingrefuse, theymayreflectvaguelyonthecuriousunevennessoftheirblessings.Is this,indeed,the American genius?

ii

Intheproductionofgoodswithintheprivateeconomy,ithas longbeenrecognizedthatatolerablycloserelationshipmustbe maintainedbetweentheproductionofvariouskindsofproducts. Theoutputofsteelandoilandmachinetoolsisrelatedtotheproductionofautomobiles.Investmentintransportationmustkeep abreastoftheoutputofgoodstobetransported.Thesupplyof powermustbeabreastofthegrowthofindustriesrequiringit.The existenceoftheserelationships—coefficientstotheeconomist— hasmadepossibletheconstructionoftheinput-outputtablewhich showshowchangesintheproductioninoneindustrywillincrease ordiminishthedemandsonotherindustries.Tothistable,and moreespeciallytoitsingeniousauthor,ProfessorWassilyLeontief, theworldisindebtedforoneofitsmostimportantmoderninsights intoeconomicrelationships.Ifexpansioninonepartoftheeconomywerenotmatchedbytherequisiteexpansioninotherparts— weretheneedforbalancenotrespected—thenbottlenecksand

shortages,speculativehoardingofscarcesuppliesandsharplyincreasingcostswouldensue.Fortunatelyinpeacetimethemarket system,combinedwithconsiderableplanning,servestomaintain thisbalance,andthis,togetherwiththeexistenceofstocksand someflexibilityinthecoefficientsasaresultofsubstitution,ensures thatnoseriousdifficultieswillarise.Weareremindedoftheproblemonlybynoticinghowseriousitwasforthosecountrieswhich sought to solve it by a more inflexible planning.

Justastheremustbebalanceinwhatacommunityproduces,so theremustalsobebalanceinwhatthecommunityconsumes.An increaseintheuseofoneproductcreates,ineluctably,arequirementforothers.Ifwearetoconsumemoreautomobiles,wemust havemoregasoline.Theremustbemoreinsuranceaswellasmore spaceinwhichtooperatethem.Beyondacertainpoint,moreand betterfoodappearstomeanincreasedneedformedicalservices. Thisisthecertainresultofincreasedconsumptionoftobaccoand alcohol.Morevacationsrequiremorehotelsandmorefishingrods. And so forth.

However,therelationshipsweareherediscussingarenotconfinedtotheprivateeconomy.Theyoperatecomprehensivelyover thewholespanofprivateandpublicservices.Assurelyasanincreaseintheoutputofautomobilesputsnewdemandsonthesteel industryso,also,itplacesnewdemandsonpublicservices.Similarly,everyincreaseintheconsumptionofprivategoodswillnormallymeansomefacilitatingorprotectivestepbythestate.Inall casesiftheseservicesarenotforthcoming,theconsequenceswillbe insomedegreeill.Itwillbeconvenienttohaveatermwhichsuggestsasatisfactoryrelationshipbetweenthesupplyofprivatelyproducedgoodsandservicesandthoseofthestate,andwemaycallit Social Balance.

Theproblemofsocialbalanceisubiquitous,andfrequentlyitis obtrusive.Asnoted,anincreaseintheconsumptionofautomobiles requiresafacilitatingsupplyofstreets,highways,trafficcontroland parkingspace.Theprotectiveservicesofthepoliceandthehighway patrolsmustalsobeavailable,asmustthoseofthehospitals.Althoughtheneedforbalancehereisextraordinarilyclear,ouruseof

privatelyproducedvehicleshas,onoccasion,gotfaroutoflinewith thesupplyoftherelatedpublicservices.Theresulthasbeenhideous roadcongestion,ahumanmassacreofimpressiveproportionsand chronicurbancolitis.Asontheground,soalsointheair.Planesare delayedorcollideoverairportswithdisquietingconsequencesfor passengerswhenthepublicprovisionforairtrafficcontrolfailsto keep pace with the private use ofthe airways.

Buttheautoandtheairplane,versusthespacetousethem,are merelyanexceptionallyvisibleexampleofarequirementthatis pervasive.Themoregoodspeopleprocure,themorepackagesthey discardandthemoretrashthatmustbecarriedaway.Iftheappropriatesanitationservicesarenotprovided,thecounterpartofincreasingopulencewillbedeepeningfilth.Thegreaterthewealth, thethickerwillbethedirt.Thisindubitablydescribesatendencyof ourtime.Asmoregoodsareproducedandowned,thegreaterare theopportunitiesforfraudandthemorepropertythatmustbe protected.Iftheprovisionofpubliclawenforcementservicesdoes notkeeppace,thecounterpartofincreasedwell-beingwill,wemay be certain,be increased crime.

ThecityofLosAngelesinmoderntimeswasthenear-classic studyintheproblemofsocialbalance.Magnificentlyefficientfactoriesandoilrefineries,alavishsupplyofautomobiles,avastconsumptionofhandsomelypackagedproducts,coupledformany yearswiththeabsenceofamunicipaltrashcollectionservicewhich forcedtheuseofhomeincinerators,madetheairnearlyunbreathableforanappreciablepartofeachyear.Airpollutioncouldbecontrolledonlybyacomplexandhighlydevelopedsetofpublicservices—bybetterknowledgeofcausesstemmingfrommorepublic research,publicrequirementofpollutioncontroldevicesoncars,a municipaltrashcollectionserviceandpossiblytheassertionofthe priorityofcleanairovertheproductionofgoods.Thesewerelong in coming.The agony ofa city without usable air was the result. Theissueofsocialbalancecanbeidentifiedinmanyothercurrentproblems.Thusanaspectofincreasingprivateproductionis theappearanceofanextraordinarynumberofthingswhichlay claimtotheinterestoftheyoung.Motionpictures,television,auto-

mobilesandthevastopportunitieswhichgowiththemobilitythey provide,togetherwithsuchlessenchantingmerchandiseasnarcotics,comicbooksandpornographia,areallincludedinanadvancing GrossDomesticProduct.Thechildofalessopulentaswellasa technologicallymoreprimitiveagehadfarfewersuchdiversions.

Theredschoolhouseisrememberedmainlybecauseithadaparamountpositioninthelivesofthosewhoattendeditthatnomodern school can hope to attain.

Inawell-runandwell-regulatedcommunity,withasoundschool system,goodrecreationalopportunitiesandagoodpoliceforce— inshort,acommunitywherepublicserviceshavekeptpacewith privateproduction—thediversionaryforcesoperatingonthemodernjuvenilemaydonogreatdamage.Televisionandtheviolent moresofHollywoodmustcontendwiththeintellectualdiscipline oftheschool.Thesocial,athletic,dramaticandlikeattractionsof theschoolalsoclaimtheattentionofthechild.These,togetherwith theotherrecreationalopportunitiesofthecommunity,minimize thetendencytodelinquency.Experimentswithviolenceandimmoralityarecheckedbyaneffectivelawenforcementsystembefore they become epidemic.

Inacommunitywherepublicserviceshavefailedtokeepabreast ofprivateconsumption,thingsareverydifferent.Here,inanatmosphereofprivateopulenceandpublicsqualor,theprivategoods havefullsway.Schoolsdonotcompetewithtelevisionandthemovies.Thedubiousheroesofthelatter,notMs.Jones,becometheidols oftheyoung.Violencereplacesthemoresedentaryrecreationfor whichthereareinadequatefacilitiesorprovision.Comicbooks,alcohol,drugsandswitchbladeknivesare,asnoted,partoftheincreasedflowofgoods,andthereisnothingtodisputetheirenjoyment.Thereisanamplesupplyofprivatewealthtobeappropriated andnotmuchtobefearedfromthepolice.Anausterecommunity isfreefromtemptation.Itcanalsobeaustereinitspublicservices. Not so a rich one.

Moreover,inasocietywhichsetslargestorebyproduction,and whichhashighlyeffectivemachineryforsynthesizingprivatewants,

therearestrongpressurestohaveasmanywageearnersinthefamilyaspossible.Asalways,allsocialbehaviorisofapiece.Ifbothparentsareengagedinprivateproduction,theburdenonthepublic servicesisfurtherincreased.Children,ineffect,becomethecharge ofthecommunityforanappreciablepartofthetime.Iftheservices ofthecommunitydonotkeeppace,thiswillbeanothersourceof disorder.

Residentialhousingalsoillustratestheproblemofthesocialbalance,althoughinasomewhatcomplexform.Fewwouldwishto contendthat,intheloweroreventhemiddleincomebrackets, Americansaremunificentlysuppliedwithhousing.Agreatmany familieswouldlikebetterlocatedormerelymorehouseroom,and noadvertisingisnecessarytopersuadethemoftheirwish.Andthe provisionofhousingisintheprivatedomain.Atfirstglanceatleast, thelinewedrawbetweenprivateandpublicseemsnottobepreventing a satisfactory allocation ofresources to housing. Oncloserexamination,however,theproblemturnsouttobenot greatlydifferentfromthatofeducation.Itisimprobablethatthe housingindustryissignificantlymoreincompetentorinefficientin theUnitedStatesthaninthosecountries—Scandinavia,Hollandor (forthemostpart)England—whereslumshavebeenlargelyeliminatedandwhere minimum standardsofcleanlinessandcomfortare wellaboveourown.Astheexperienceofthesecountriesshows,and aswehavealsobeenlearning,thehousingindustryfunctionswell onlyincombinationwithalarge,complexandcostlyarrayofpublic services.Theseincludelandpurchaseandclearanceforredevelopment;goodneighborhoodandcityplanningandeffectiveandwellenforcedzoning;avarietyoffinancingandotheraidstothehousebuilderandowner;publiclysupportedresearchandarchitectural servicesforanindustrywhich,byitsnature,isequippedtodolittle onitsown;andaconsiderableamountofdirectorassistedpublic constructionandgoodmaintenanceforfamiliesinthelowestincomebrackets.Thequalityofthehousingdependsnotontheindustry,whichisgiven,butonwhatisinvestedinthesesupplements and supports.2

Thecaseforsocialbalancehas,sofar,beenputnegatively.Failureto keeppublicservicesinminimalrelationtoprivateproductionand useofgoodsisacauseofsocialdisorderorimpairseconomicperformance.Themattermaynowbeputaffirmatively.Byfailingto exploittheopportunitytoexpandpublicproduction,wearemissingopportunitiesforenjoymentwhichotherwisewemighthave. Presumablyacommunitycanbeaswellrewardedbybuyingbetter schoolsorbetterparksasbybuyingmoreexpensiveautomobiles. Byconcentratingonthelatterratherthantheformer,itisfailingto maximizeitssatisfactions.Aswithschoolsinthecommunity,so withpublicservicesoverthecountryatlarge.Itisscarcelysensible thatweshouldsatisfyourwantsinprivategoodswithreckless abundance,whileinthecaseofpublicgoods,ontheevidenceofthe eye,wepracticeextremeself-denial.Sofarfromsystematicallyexploitingtheopportunitiestoderiveuseandpleasurefromtheseservices,we do not supply what would keep us out oftrouble.

Theconventionalwisdomholdsthatthecommunity,largeor small,makesadecisionastohowmuchitwilldevotetoitspublic services.Thisdecisionisarrivedatbydemocraticprocess.Subject totheimperfectionsanduncertaintiesofdemocracy,peopledecide howmuchoftheirprivateincomeandgoodstheywillsurrenderin ordertohavepublicservicesofwhichtheyareingreaterneed.Thus thereisabalance,howeverrough,intheenjoymentstobehadfrom private goods and services and those rendered by public authority. Itwillbeobvious,however,thatthisviewdependsonthenotion ofindependentlydeterminedconsumerwants.Insuchaworld, onecouldwithsomereasondefendthedoctrinethattheconsumer, asavoter,makesanindependentchoicebetweenpublicandprivategoods.Butgiventhedependenceeffect—giventhatconsumer wantsarecreatedbytheprocessbywhichtheyaresatisfied—the consumermakesnosuchchoice.Heorsheissubjecttotheforcesof advertisingandemulationbywhichproductioncreatesitsowndemand.Advertisingoperatesexclusively,andemulationmainly,on behalfofprivatelyproducedgoodsandservices.3 Sincemanage-

mentofdemandandemulativeeffectsoperateonbehalfofprivate production,publicserviceswillhaveaninherenttendencytolagbehind.Automobiledemand,whichisexpensivelysynthesized,will inevitablyhaveamuchlargerclaimonincomethanparksorpublic healthorevenroads,wherenosuchinfluenceoperates.Theengines ofmasscommunication,intheirhigheststateofdevelopment,assailtheeyesandearsofthecommunityonbehalfofmorebeverages butnotofmoreschools.Evenintheconventionalwisdomitwill scarcelybecontendedthatthisleadstoanequalchoicebetween the two.

Thecompetitionisespeciallyunequalfornewproductsandservices.Everycornerofthepublicpsycheiscanvassedbysomeofthe nation’smosttalentedcitizenstoseeifthedesireforsomemerchantableproductcanbecultivated.Nosimilarprocessoperateson behalfofthenonmerchantableservicesofthestate.Indeed,while wetakethecultivationofnewprivatewantsforgranted,wewould bemeasurablyshockedtoseesuchcultivationappliedtopublicservices.Thescientistorengineeroradvertisingmanwhodevotes himselftodevelopinganewcarburetor,cleanserordepilatoryfor whichthepublicrecognizesnoneedandwillfeelnoneuntilanadvertisingcampaignarousesit,isoneofthevaluedmembersofour society.Apoliticianorapublicservantwhoseesneedforanew publicservicemaybecalledawastrel.Fewpublicoffensesaremore reprehensible.

Somuchfortheinfluencesthatoperateonthedecisionbetween publicandprivateproduction.Thecalmdecisionbetweenpublic andprivateconsumptionpicturedbytheconventionalwisdomis, infact,aremarkableexampleoftheerrorwhicharisesfromviewing socialbehavioroutofcontext.Theinherenttendencywillalwaysbe forpublicservicestofallbehindprivateproduction.Wehavehere the first ofthe causes ofsocial imbalance. iv Socialbalanceisalsothevictimoftwofurtherfeaturesofoursociety—thetruceoninequalityandthetendencytoinflation.Since

thesearenowpartofourcontext,theireffectcomesquicklyinto view.

Withrareexceptionssuchasthepostalservice,publicservicesdo notcarryapricetickettobepaidforbytheindividualuser.Bytheir nature,theymust,ordinarily,beavailabletoall.Asaresult,when theyareimprovedornewservicesareinitiated,thereistheancient andtroublesomequestionofwhoistopay.This,inturn,provokes tolifethecollateralbutirrelevantdebateoverinequality.Aswiththe useoftaxationasaninstrumentoffiscalpolicy,thetruceoninequalityisbroken.Liberalsareobligedtoarguethattheservicesbe paidforbyprogressivetaxationwhichwillreduceinequality.Committedastheyaretotheurgencyofgoods(andalsotoasomewhat mechanicalviewofthewayinwhichthelevelofoutputcanbekept mostsecure),theymustopposesalesandexcisetaxes.Conservativesrallytothedefenseofinequality—althoughwithouteverquite committingthemselvesinsuchuncouthterms—andopposethe useofincometaxes.They,ineffect,opposetheexpenditurenoton themeritsoftheservicebutonthedemeritsofthetaxsystem.Since thedebateoverinequalitycannotberesolved,themoneyisfrequentlynotappropriatedandtheservicenotperformed.Itisacasualtyoftheeconomicgoalsofbothliberalsandconservatives,for bothofwhomthequestionsofsocialbalancearesubordinateto those ofproduction and,when it is evoked,ofinequality.

Inpractice,mattersarebetteraswellasworsethanthisdescriptionofthebasicforcessuggests.Giventhetaxstructure,therevenuesofalllevelsofgovernmentgrowwiththegrowthoftheeconomy.Servicescanbemaintainedandsometimesevenimprovedout ofthis automatic accretion.

However,thiseffectishighlyunequal.Therevenuesofthefederal government,becauseofitsheavyrelianceonprogressiveincome taxes,increasemorethanproportionatelywithprivateeconomic growth.Inaddition,althoughtheconventionalwisdomgreatlydeploresthefact,federalappropriationshaveonlyanindirectbearing ontaxation.Publicservicesareconsideredandvotedoninaccordancewiththeirseemingurgency.Initiationorimprovementofa

particularserviceisrarely,exceptforpurposesoforatory,setagainst thespecificeffectontaxes.Taxpolicy,inturn,isdecidedonthebasisofthelevelofeconomicactivity,theresultingrevenues,expediencyandotherconsiderations.Amongthese,thetotalofthethousandsofindividuallyconsideredappropriationsisbutonefactor.In thisprocess,theultimatetaxconsequenceofanyindividualappropriationis deminimus, andthetendencytoignoreitreflectsthe simplemathematicsofthesituation.ThusitispossiblefortheCongresstomakedecisionsaffectingthesocialbalancewithoutinvoking the question ofinequality.

Thingsaremadeworse,however,bythefactthatalargeproportionofthefederalrevenuesarepre-emptedbydefense.Theincrease indefensecostshasalsotendedtoabsorbalargeshareofthenormalincreaseintaxrevenues.Thepositionofthefederalgovernmentinimprovingthesocialbalancehasalsobeenweakenedsince WorldWarIIbythestrong,althoughreceding,convictionthatits taxesareatartificiallevelsandthatatacitcommitmentexiststoreduce taxes at the earliest opportunity.

Inthestatesandlocalities,theproblemofsocialbalanceismuch moresevere.Heretaxrevenues—thisisespeciallytrueofthegeneralpropertytax—increaselessthanproportionatelywithincreasedprivateproduction.Budgetingtooisfarmorecloselycircumscribedthaninthecaseofthefederalgovernment—onlythe monetaryauthorityenjoysthepleasantprivilegeofunderwritingits ownloans.Becauseofthis,increasedservicesforstatesandlocalitiesregularlyposethequestionofmorerevenuesandmoretaxes. Andhere,withgreatregularity,thequestionofsocialbalanceislost in the debate over equality and social equity.

Thuswecurrentlyfindbyfarthemostserioussocialimbalance intheservicesperformedbylocalgovernments.TheF.B.I.comes muchmoreeasilybyfundsthanthecitypoliceforce.TheDepartmentofAgriculturecanmoreeasilykeepitspestcontrolabreastof expandingagriculturaloutputthantheaveragecityhealthservice cankeepupwiththeneedsofanexpandingindustrialpopulation. Oneconsequenceisthatthefederalgovernmentremainsunder

constantandhighlydesirablepressuretouseitssuperiorrevenue positiontohelpredressthebalanceatthelowerlevelsofgovernment. v

Finally,socialimbalanceisthenaturaloffspringofinflation.Inthe past,inflationhadtwomajoreffectsonpublicservices.Wagesinthe publicservicetendedtolagwellbehindthoseinprivateindustry. Therewasthusanincentivetodesertpublicforprivateemployment.Moreimportant,intheUnitedStatesthemosturgentproblemsofsocialbalanceinvolvetheservicesofstatesandlocalities and,mostofall,thoseofthelargercities.Increasingpopulation,increasingurbanizationandincreasingaffluenceallintensifythepublictasksofthemetropolis.Meanwhiletherevenuesoftheseunitsof government,incontrastwiththoseofthefederalgovernment,are relativelyinelastic.Inconsequenceoftheheavydependenceonthe propertytax,therevenuesoftheseunitsofgovernmentlagbehind whenpricesrise.Theproblemoffinancingservicesthusbecomes increasingly acute as and when inflation continues.

Inveryrecenttimesinthelargercities,strongerunionorganizationamongmunicipalemployeeshasarrestedandinsomecommunitiesreversedthetendencyforwagesofpublicworkerstolag.So thecompetitivepositionofthepublicservicesdoesnotautomaticallybecomeadversewithinflation.Buttheinelasticityoftherevenuesremains.Andwithhighlaborcosts,theconstraintsonservices —cuts,onoccasion,insteadofurgentexpansion—havebecome more severe. vi

AfeatureoftheyearsimmediatelyfollowingWorldWarIIwasaremarkableattackonthenotionofexpandingandimprovingpublic services.Duringthedepressionyears,suchserviceshadbeenelaboratedandimprovedpartlyinordertofillsomesmallpartofthevacuumleftbytheshrinkageofprivateproduction.Duringthewar

years,theroleofgovernmentwasvastlyexpanded.Afterthatcame thereaction.Muchofit,unquestionably,wasmotivatedbyadesire torehabilitatetheprestigeofprivateproductionandtherewithof producers.Nodoubtsomewhojoinedtheattackhoped,atleasttacitly,thatitmightbepossibletosidestepthetruceontaxationvis-àvisequalitybyhavinglesstaxationofallkinds.Foratime,thenotionthatourpublicserviceshadsomehowbecomeinflatedandexcessivewasallbutaxiomatic.Evenliberalpoliticiansdidnotseriouslyprotest.Theyfounditnecessarytoaverthattheywereinfavor ofrigid economy in public spending too.

Inthisdiscussion,acertainmystiquewasattributedtothesatisfactionofprivatelysuppliedwants.Acommunitydecisiontohave anewschoolmeansthattheindividualsurrendersthenecessary amount,willy-nilly,inhistaxes.Butifheisleftwiththatincome,he isafreeman.Hecandecidebetweenabettercaroratelevisionset. Thedifficultyisthatthisargumentleavesthecommunitywithno wayofpreferringtheschool.Allprivatewants,wheretheindividual canchoose,arethoughtinherentlysuperiortoallpublicdesires whichmustbepaidforbytaxationandwithaninevitablecomponent ofcompulsion.

Thecostofpublicserviceswasalsoheldtobeadesolatingburden onprivateproduction,althoughthiswasatatimewhenprivate productionwasburgeoning.Urgentwarningswereissuedofthe unfavorableeffectsoftaxationoninvestment—“Idon’tknowofa surerwayofkillingofftheincentivetoinvestthanbyimposing taxeswhichareregardedbypeopleaspunitive.”4 Thiswasatatime whentheinflationaryeffectofaveryhighlevelofprivateinvestmentwascausingconcern.Thesameindividualswhowerewarning abouttheinimicaleffectsoftaxeswerestronglyadvocatingamonetarypolicydesignedtoreduceinvestment.However,anunderstandingofoureconomicdiscourserequiresanappreciationofoneof itsbasicrules:menofhighpositionareallowed,byaspecialactof grace,toaccommodatetheirreasoningtotheanswertheyneed. Logic is only required in those oflesser rank.

Finally,itwasarguedwithnolittlevigorthatexpandinggovernmentposedagravethreattoindividualliberties.“Wheredistinction

andrankisachievedalmostexclusivelybybecomingacivilservant ofthestate...itistoomuchtoexpect thatmanywilllongprefer freedom to security.”5

Withtime,thedisorderassociatedwithsocialimbalancehasbecomevisibleeveniftheneedforbalancebetweenprivateandpublic servicesisstillimperfectlyappreciated.Theonslaughtonthepublic serviceshasleftalastingimprint.Tosuggestthatwecanvassour publicwantstoseewherehappinesscanbeimprovedbymoreand betterserviceshasasharplyradicaltone.Evenpublicservicesthat preventdisorderneedtobedefended.Bycontrast,themanwhodevisesanostrumforanonexistentprivateneedandthensuccessfully promotes both remains one ofnature’s noblemen.

notes

1. Equality, 4th ed.,rev.(London:Allen & Unwin,1952),pp. 134–135.

2.In EconomicsandthePublicPurpose (Boston:HoughtonMifflin,1973), Ihaverelatedtheperformanceofpublicfunctionsmuchmoreclosely tothepowerofthepartoftheprivatesectorbeingserved.Thusthe comparativelyamplesupplyofhighways,themorethanamplesupply ofweaponsandthepoorsupplyofmunicipalservicesandpublic health care.

3.Emulationdoesoperatebetweencommunities.Anewschoolinone communitydoesexertpressureonotherstoremainabreast.However, ascomparedwiththepervasiveeffectsofemulationinextendingthe demandforprivatelyproducedconsumers’goods, therewillbeagreement,I think,that this intercommunity effect is probably small.

4.ArthurF.Burns,ChairmanofthePresident’sCouncilofEconomicAdvisers, U.S.News and World Report, May 6,1955.

5.F.A.vonHayek, TheRoadtoSerfdom (London:GeorgeRoutledge& Sons,1944),p. 98.