globalaffairs Issue 8 April/May 2008 ISSN 1887-5076
Burma in the shadows after the spotlight is gone
Positively Russian A positive look at Putin's Russia
The role of Chinese sovereign funds in world financial markets
...and more
Final tune? The future of Cuba...
The New on-line magazine of International Relations www.globalaffairs.es
Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaliindex
Index editorial /3 Managment: Iván Máñez Ortega ivan.manez@globalaffairs.es Eva Díez Ajenjo eva.diez@globalaffairs.es Online Marketing: Mario Consuegra redaccion@globalaffairs.es Editing: Moises Bolekia moises.bolekia@globalaffairs.es Advertising: Eva Prieto publicidad@globalaffairs.es Webmaster: Diego Alonso webmaster@globalaffairs.es Translation: Silvia Martínez Lucía Sepúlveda globaltranslation@globalaffairs.es Contributors: Roger Casas Vahe Gevorgyan Diego Li Chen Gustavo Ayala Eugenio Bregolat Mauricio Rojas Indalecio Díaz Camilo Andrés Realpe Belén Dorado Richard Corbett Adrien Majourel Juan Luis Dorado Armen Baibourtian Evgeny Lykov F. Rwandizi Dimce Bukreski Aluat Hamudi Lucía Valero Raúl Sánchez Soraya Carvajal Naiara Cáliz Virginia Caballero Carolina Ferreiro Rosa Salgado Mnatsakan Safaryan Lukas Vitalijus Jaume Mateu Marcellin Singo María López Belloso ISSN 1887-5076
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All the best for Cuba globalaasia /5-11 Coming of age for Chinese Film Censorship? Burma in the shadows; after the spotlight is gone globalaafrica /12-19 CAMEROON: Retirement of President Paul Biya or Amendment of the Constitution - Chilling Future or Bright Future? Saharawi Women and Their Struggle for Independence globaluusa /20 -25 Anti-Americanism in the Middle East globalllatin america /27-30 Final tune? globaleeurope /31 -35 Building Europe, isolating the US Positively Russian: A positive look at Putin's Russia middle east /36-40 globalm After the NIE - What to Demand from Tehran? globaleeconomy /42 -44 The role of Chinese sovereign funds in world financial markets globalcculture /46 -50 Proposals for peaceful coexistence globalssociety When children fight
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaleeditorial
Editorial All the best for Cuba
Following the international affairs in vogue we should highlight the current political situation of Cuba and analyse the future of the island. Juan Luis Dorado (journalist specialized in Latin America politics) points outs an unchallenged future for the Havana due to the fact that Fidel Castro will remain on the compass of life in Cuba in all fields, as he has been in the last 50 years the only difference is that "now he will not be the leader of the orchestra, rather hired to write the songs, to give them form via his weekly reflections". Regarding Global Asia there is a call for Burma situation after the spotlight is gone. Despite the international media upheaval, the situation in Burma remains unchallenged and it seems that international media are not interested in a situation of genocide, human rights violation and dictatorship. Western sanctions on Burma are hardly criticized because of their ineffectiveness. The author goes for the use of force as the last option when all else has failed and destruction is imminent. While the world's attention was focused on Burma last August and September and international pressure increased with Heads of States personally taking an interest to force the government's back against the corner, a glimmer of hope appeared. According to the author this hope is gone when the generals finally became aware that the media storm had passed, the world has
moved on and international media are looking at other injustice. Therefore we should not forget Burma and assume that the injustice that once disturbed us so is not there just because we are no longer exposed to it. As for Global Europe Glen Ruffle criticizes Western politicians for their attitude towards Russia and President Putin and stresses the stronger economy of current Russia under Putin's government. The author states that Putin's Russia is now in a strong position to win back lost international influence and this scares the West. Some of the most important concerns that Putin should issue are the high inflation and demographic collapse. China plays an important role in our section Global Economy due to sovereign funds. The fund controlled by Chinese government CIC is one of the most important in the world and its moves can provoke big changes in national economies. China has become a new actor in the international finance panorama, which comes to show the growing influence in the global political and financial panorama. We hope the future of Cuba will allow a peaceful coexistence of all Cubans in an environment of expression freedom, respect and tolerance because as human beings we have the right to express our opinions without fears.
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An open window to learn about
Eastern Asia Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona www.uab.es
Universitat Pompeu Fabra www.upf.edu
Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalaasia
Coming of age for Chinese Film Censorship? By Roger Casas
FOR THOSE WHO measure the level of democratic development in a country according to the degree of freedom of expression that laws and authorities on that country allow, the strict artistic censorship in the People´s Republic of China (PRC) is just another sign of how far is this country of guaranteeing its citizens the basic freedoms taken for granted in any liberal democracy: contents of books and films released within the country are still determined by the wits of a secret and obscure censor body, whose heads seem to take pleasure on the routine of banning any work that may challenge the ideological hegemony of the Chinese Communist Party or the alleged moral rectitude of Chinese people. As examples of this censorship we can mention the books of novelist Yan Lianke, a former member of the People's Liberation Army, systematically banned within the PRC whereas translated and published abroad, or the works of those authors most critical of the system who have left the motherland in order to settle in any Western country willing to take in Chinese dissidents, authors such as Nobel Prize Gao Xingjian, whose plays were also banned in the PRC following the publication in 1989 of "Fugitives" (background the Tiananmen Square protests of June that year), or Chang Jung, author of the world-wide famous "Wild swans" as well as a harsh and controversial biography of Mao Zedong. Turning now to the film industry, the case of Taiwanese director Ang Lee is somehow more complex: his film "Brokeback Mountain" made him win the Oscar for best director two years ago, an event celebrated in the official press of the PRC as a triumph of the artistic talent of the "Chinese nation" (which obviously includes Taiwan, no matter what the Taiwanese may think about it; see "Oscar
honor brings joy to Chinese", in the China Daily of March 7, 2006). In spite of Lee's success, the movie, which tells the story of a couple of American cowboys´ love affair during the 1960s and 1970s, was not shown in movie theaters in the PRC although, on the other hand, anyone interested could easily buy the film on pirated DVDs for around 1 dollar, which obviously puts into question the effectiveness of the ban in a country with about 6,000 movie screens (that is, around one for every 220,000 inhabitants). Ang Lee´s last film, "Lust, caution", starring Tony Leung and Tang Wei, was released at the end of last year to very good reviews. The story revolves around the relationship between a Chinese agent cooperating with the Japanese, and the young activist trying to seduce him (in order to eliminate him) in Shanghai during social upheavals of Japanese occupation time. Apparently, the intensity of the sex scenes between the two stars, as well as the rare subtleness which the Japanese occupation of China is dealt with in the movie, caught the eye of state censors in the PRC, who forced Lee to cut several minutes of the film in order to be released in this country. Lee seems to have responded quite well to their demands, which eventually only affected around 10 minutes of a total of more than two hours and a half, but the deal seems to have disappointed some people: last November, Dong Yanbin, a student from Beijing, sued the State Administration of Radio, Cinema and Television, as well as the UME Huaxing movie theater of Beijing, for violating his consumer rights, showing an incomplete version of the movie. The demand was successively rejected by several courts in the Chinese capital, but the main issue remains obviously unsolved.
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalaasia
The actress Gong Li and the director Zhang Yimou, Beijing, March 2007. Source: Xinhua
The problem focuses on the lack in the PRC of a rating system for movies, such as the ones existing in the US or in several European countries, which categorize films as suitable or not for different age groups, according to their contents. This forces every movie released in the Asian country to adapt its contents for children as well as for adults, which in turn provokes that any production that does not do so risks being deemed problematic due to political or moral issues, and therefore being banned, as it happened two years ago with "Memoirs of a geisha" -in which a few Chinese actresses playing Japanese prostitutes apparently evoked sensitive memories of the Japanese occupation of China during the 1930s and 1940s-, or are released only after cutting has taken its toll, as it was the case of "Lust", "caution" or, somehow curiously, "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World´s End". Censorship eliminated also around 10 minutes of scenes of this movie in which Hong Kong actor Chow Yun-fat (who achieved celebrity in the West due to his role in "Crouching tiger, hidden dragon", an Ang Lee´s film) played the Singaporean pirate Sao Feng. Chinese authorities refused to offer an explanation for the cut, but unofficial sources pointed to the negative and stereotyped image of the Chinese people portrayed by the character. PRC authors have recently begun to protest against the inflexibility of a system which forces film producers and directors to think twice before tackling controversial or conflictive topics to the screens. Last year, Chinese actress Gong Li submitted a proposal in the Chinese People's Consultative Political Conference (a body
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linked to the National People's Congress) suggesting the government to create a movie rating system thus ending this problem. Today the Chinese government has not taken any steps in this direction. Probably due to Ang Lee´s international celebrity, Hong Kong censors, generally as rigid and conservative as those in mainland PRC, have allowed "Brokeback Mountain" as well as "Lust, caution" to be released uncut in the former British colony, and this has made a large number of inhabitants of the neighboring province of Guangdong (Canton) travel to Hong Kong to see what they cannot see in their local cinema. Although this phenomenon is not new, the interest arisen by "Lust, caution" has apparently notably increased the numbers of movie-goers visiting the city, the hardcore of this group consisting of middle-class, young educated couples for whom this is probably more a matter of affirmation of a cultural or political identity, than one of artistic interest (after all they could just watch the movie on DVD at home); a new generation of consumers that rejects the morals of "old China" and is not afraid of being contaminated by the alleged relaxation of local mores nor by any of the other supposedly unpleasant "flies" which, as leader Deng Xiaoping once said, have entered China together with market economy. In any case, even if a certain change is taking place among Chinese audiences (Lust, caution became one of the hits of last year´s box-office in the PRC), this does not automatically mean that
Issue 8 April/May 2008
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PRC authors have recently begun to protest against the inflexibility of a system which forces film producers and directors to think twice before tackling controversial or conflictive topics to the screens
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a new generation of consumers that rejects the morals of "old China" and is not afraid of being contaminated by the alleged relaxation of local mores nor by any of the other supposedly unpleasant "flies" which, as leader Deng Xiaoping once said, have entered China together with market economy.
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the situation is bound to improve significantly in the near future: that Ang Lee´s last movie has been released in the country, even if censored, is indeed a step towards the achievement of a genuine freedom for artists as well as for audiences. But censorship is still in very good health in the PRC -and affecting local productions in particular. Sadly, not even the potential establishment of a rating system for films would ensure a more favorable context for the production and distribution of films in the country, as the case of the US shows: while the last chapter of the Rambo series, full with scenes of bloody violence designed to make viewers sick, has been rated "R", allowing under-17 teenagers to enter the cinema in the company of an adult, "Lust, caution" got a "NC-17" rate from the Motion Picture Association of America, which bans unconditionally people under that age to enter movie theaters, implying as well a much more limited distribution and advertising, and usually securing failure at the box-office -this is why it is popularly known as "the kiss of death". As Col Walter. E. Kurtz once moaned in Apocalypse now, "we train young men to make fire on people, but their commanders won´t allow them to write 'fuck' on their airplanes, because it´s obscene!" Ask John Rambo, who after so many battles has not been able to say dirty words on screen yet.
Roger Casas Local Coordinator of the UNESCO project for cultural preservation in China
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalaasia
Burma in the shadows; after the spotlight is gone By Faye Karavasili
IT WAS NOT THAT long ago when what became known as the "Shaffron Revolution" in a formerly little-known Asian country with two names and a barbaric regime took the Western media world by a storm. Our television sets and comfortable lives were filled with the colors of raw violence; a striking shade of yolk-yellow for the robes worn by the monks marching down the streets of Rangoon and red for the blood that was spilled in the name of "stability". The junta's "reaction" to the protests was harsh and immediate but also, unfortunately for them, very public indeed. Few will ever forget the images of the on-camera-execution of that unfortunate Japanese photographer by a soldier or the emotions those cruel images provoked. After September 2007, we all became painfully aware of the existence of Burma, otherwise known as Myanmar since the military junta came into power, and of the atrocities that have been going on in this country for years. The Western world was accordingly appalled. Demonstrations were organized, petitions were signed, protests sprung like mushrooms and the public as a whole agreed with what human rights organizations had been shouting for years. Something needed to be done. The crackdown in Burma was massive. Even before the dramatic climax in Rangoon dragged Burma into the international spotlight for all the wrong reasons, the situation was a ticking bomb just waiting to explode. Burma had been suffering under the tyranny of an absolutist regime for the greatest part of its modern history. The military rule has been in power ever since 1962 and it has not ceased to oppress its subjects on a daily basis, stripping them of their rights completely at will, suppressing all dissent and committing unspeakable violations of human rights against unfavorable minorities and opposing voices alike. International politics, delicate regional considerations and various economic interests in the area ensured a certain degree of tolerance by the West so the junta remained more or less unhindered in order to exercise their complete and utter power on their
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unfortunate subjects. The unsuccessful uprising of 1988 was to this day the most serious threat this absolutist regime ever had to face before the events in 2007 and even that was crushed easily and, as to be expected, in an equally violent fashion. Then followed the arrest of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi for the sole crime of being democratically elected in 1990, after her party, the National League for Democracy, claimed a clear cut victory with more than 80% of the seats of the People's Assembly in the first democratic election this country had ever seen since 1962. Her unfair arrest and inexcusable detention polarized the situation further. Soon it became evident that the "democratic ballot" was nothing of that short. Instead it was little more than a game of charades, staged and performed for appearances shake alone as it became evident that the Generals of the junta never intended to hand over power to anyone in the first place. Instead Aung San Suu Kyi was promptly arrested and, although briefly freed in 1995, remains under house arrest to this day in spite of public outcry and demands for her release from around the globe. The spark that was to ignite this powerful dynamite was provided by an arbitrary decision by the current Head of State General Than Shwe's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC, the ruling party and political platform for the military junta) to remove subsidies on fuel and cooking oil. As a direct result of this move, the prices of those goods skyrocketed overnight making life for the already impoverished Burmese a living nightmare. The end result was inevitable. Burma had its moment in the limelight. A dim light of hope for everyone who had been watching the situation unfold even before the 'Shaffron Revolution" became in vogue sadly started to fade. Months after the Buddhist Monks took to the streets and countless others who shall forever remain nameless perished in the almost 3000 villages that were reportedly annihilated in order to prevent its inhabitants to assist the opposition with an armed conflict and still nothing of value seems to be done.
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The West needs new sensations and this troubled planet has more than enough fresh tragedies to choose from, so they can be offered instantly as the plat du jour
It is a sad reality that this globe is a troubled place. War, genocide, torture and terrorism are far more common than they should be and the frantic pace of today's media dominated world needs to keep the viewer's interest alive at all costs. The West needs new sensations and this troubled planet has more than enough fresh tragedies to choose from, so they can be offered instantly as the plat du jour. The American election saga, elections in Russia, the Kosovo independence question and lately the troubles in Tibet have inevitably upstaged the Burma situation in the minds of the majority. People in panels argue the case for Tibet with the same vigor and passion as they demanded solution for the Burma situation some seven months ago. The reality, however, is grim. It took the release of the latest "Rambo" movie to remind people that Burma still exists, that Aung San Suu Kyi remains still under arrest and that the same human rights violations which not so long ago had outraged public opinion are still being committed. Alas, this time around a little more carefully and always away from prying western eyes, in the darkness created by a complete western media coverage blanket controlled by the military and the secret police whose presence in Rangoon has multiplied. The lesson the "Shaffron Revolution" had to teach the military regime was quickly learned and implemented. The mistakes of September 2007 are not likely to be repeated again; the commission of the atrocities themselves, however, is a completely different matter altogether. As for the action that was so adamantly demanded by the civilized world? It can merely be summarized in one single word; and it is not a word oppressing dictators are likely to be intimidated by: sanctions. The civilized world reacted with repulsion when the images of the lifeless bodies of Buddhist monks circled the globe and it was not long before they collectively reacted the way it was expected. The reaction was to impose sanctions in order to cripple a regime they had previously left pretty much undisturbed. The European Union, the UN, the USA all followed suit and proceeded to castigate Burma with embargos of varying severity. The express purpose of these sanctions was twofold. On the one hand they would help isolate the offending nation, minimizing its means and therefore endangering the immediate survival of its regime. In theory, the said regime would then have no choice but to succumb to international pressure and cooperate with the collective will, thus putting an end to the grave violations of human rights committed and placing the country safely back in orbit to a democratic future. Naturally, an additional bonus that should not be ignored is also the fact that this
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way the governments of the "free world" countries would soothe their itching consciences and would safely fulfill the expectations of the international community and the unilateral demand for action. They would have tangible proof that they are in fact doing something when action is of paramount importance. However, one has to wonder. Are sanctions really what they are meant to be? Are they an effective way of enforcing the collective morality of the civilized world to an uncooperative regime without risking further ailments for the innocent people residing in the targeted territory? Does isolation count as "punishment" when it could still be regarded as something desirable by a government that may want to be isolated and therefore unchallenged? Could there be a very serious, foreseeable danger that those people would find themselves oppressed not only by their known tyrant but also by their proclaimed saviors? Who has to suffer the consequences if, in fact there are any tangible ones; the junta or the simple people of this troubled land? Could we justify their "sacrifice" if it is the means to an end that would benefit those and the innocent generations to come in the long run? In short, perhaps doing something is without doubt better than stepping aside and nodding our heads in disbelief as brutal dictatorships use rape as a weapon, burn villages, use children and adults as slaves and engage in genocide as a matter of conduct but is it really enough? Already, diplomatic sources from Europe and Asia alike agree that although the sanctions are well in force, not only do they not frighten Than Shwe and his regime but they also do not appear to be affecting them as gravely as expected. On a superficial level, Than Shwe has attempted to show the world that he is willing to cooperate with UN special envoy Mr. Ibrahim Gambari in an effort to defuse the volatile situation and in February he issued a declaration that he intends to hold a Referendum by which he plans to revise the country's Constitution to be held this May with the prospect of a democratic election in 2010. While this sounds like a step forward and is considered as such by some countries, including Burma's neighbors such as Singapore it may be misleading. The opposition members that were forced into exile, the majority of whom are members of the NLD party, share the same belief. Admittedly Burma is not considered high-ranking in the international political agenda chessboard and, although the sanctions are still holding the country hostage to a certain extend, with the spotlight away from the region and its ongoing problems this could be a simple attempt to relieve
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globalaasia
Demonstration for Burma, Sydney, Australia, November 2007 Source: Burma Global Action Network international pressure and attract attention away from the crimes continuing to be committed in the name of the preservation of unity in a country containing various different ethnicities which sometimes clash. In fact this has been an excuse used on numerous occasions in order to justify the use of force and attempt to convince that while the junta may not be the ideal way to govern the region it might, nevertheless, be the only possible way to ensure peace in the face of diversity. The current regime claims, perhaps conveniently so, that time is needed for those complex issues to be ironed out before the country is even ready for a democratic existence. This argument however does not go down very well with people immediately targeted by the brutal government tactics in the name of what can only be understood as a much broader definition of the word "peace". The Karen people, for example, make up around 7% of the population of Burma and are sadly among the people that have suffered more than anyone under the military regime. Human rights groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have collected testimonies both from victims themselves and from outside witnesses such as missionaries suggesting that what the Burmese government actually means by claiming to safeguard the peace in the face of diversity is not only stripping minorities like the Karen of all basic citizen's rights, forcing them to flee into the jungle in search for territory which is not controlled by the State or refugee camps in neighboring lands such as Thailand, but also using murder, rape, forced relocation and slave labor as a means to ensure minorities remain submerged in fear and oblivion. This ridiculous claim has been repeated by the regime endlessly for years, as if frequent repetition would somehow make it true. They claim that their actions are nothing more than "tough love" and all
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they have in mind is the welfare of the people living in their diverse territory. Considering their actions, from the Uprising of the Generation of 1988 to the appalling treatment of Aung San Suu Kyi and judging by the line they have chosen whilst in negotiations with the UN special envoy Dr. Ibrahim Gambari, the junta does not seem to be shifting an inch from this absurd position. When Aung San Suu Kyi was briefly freed in 1995 it was clear that she would not remain a free woman for long. Indeed, an attack against National League for Democracy supporters resulting to several deaths, widely believed to have been orchestrated by the government led to her being arrested and placed under house arrest where she remains to this day. Aung San Suu Kyi is not a random symbol. Ever since this charismatic woman entered the arena of international politics she has been an inspiration. With an engaging personality and proven determination (when given the choice to live as a free woman with her family outside Burma, she chose not to abandon her homeland and beliefs) Aung San Suu Kyi seems to have honored the Nobel Prize ideal in 1991 rather than the other way around. She has been the democratic voice of Burma during times when democratic voices were scarce and stifled. Even so, Madeline Albright recalls in her memoirs "Madam Secretary" that while visiting the troubled country in 1995 she got to discuss with General Khin Nyunt who was Head of the State at the time and was exposed to some pretty headstrong and downright patronizing if not insulting remarks concerning the on going oppression and Aung San Suu Kyi herself. Those included that the SLORC (State Law and Order Restoration Council, later to be renamed as State Peace and Development Council under his successor Than Shwe) was actually serving Burma by "imposing peace upon an ethnically diverse population", the same silly argument that was to become a little too familiar and goes strong even today. As for prisoner of conscience
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when we consider people are still being killed, away from our television monitors and our reaction is a statement we have to wonder whether that is really enough
Aung San Suu Kyi the general amazingly claimed he really had her best interests at heart and he viewed the Nobel Prize winner as a "younger sister they need to protect". General Nyunt was later forced to retire for "health reasons and was subsequently brought to trial for corruption and sentenced to 44 years of incarceration while his adversary Than Shwe assumed power. None of the two would even consider entering into constructive dialog with the NLD or Aung San Suu Kyi. Nothing has changed since and the policy is firm and it consists of the elaborate reasoning that these things take time. Moreover, questions inevitably arise as to whether Than Shwe and his regime can really ensure their proposed course of action will lead this troubled country to the path of true democracy as they claim. The Burmese population is already finding it extremely difficult to trust Mr. Gambari. The UN special envoy has demonstrated his determination to solve the complicated issue by suggesting the unconditional release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners and went as far as suggesting the junta should allow the National League for Democracy to open offices throughout the country and operate undisturbed, taking their views and undeniable contribution into consideration with respect of the Referendum. He also made it clear that the process of the Referendum itself should be transparent and fair, stressing that this would significantly enhance the junta's credibility. Nevertheless, the public is not convinced that the UN actually possess the leverage necessary to effectively press the military regime into making essential changes, a viewpoint that is hugely justified considering the proposed Constitution would probably disqualify the acclaimed leader of the National League for Democracy party, Aung San Suu Kyi from participating or holding office because she had been married to a foreigner, the late Dr. Michael Aris. In the face of this disturbing evidence of utter disregard for human dignity and basic citizen's rights one has to wonder whether the Referendum is a genuine gesture of good will and cooperation or just a card to play in a global game of poker, intended to gain even more time for a regime that never intended to respect democratic procedures in the first place as it can clearly be seen by what followed the 1990 election.
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when a nation's troubles are in the spotlight may be the easy way to go, but the spotlight keeps shifting focus and the international community's attention does not remain constant in order to witness the measure in action or judge its effectiveness. On March 25 the UK government expressed once again their disappointment by the lack of any substantial progress in the Burma situation. Their response was a simple statement of support on already standing UN imposed embargo. However when we consider people are still being killed, away from our television monitors and our reaction is a statement we have to wonder whether that is really enough. Active engagement of the international community is imperative as the last thing the world needs would be another Rwanda in the making before our very eyes. Of course one must pause for more than a minute of thought before even suggesting that military intervention could be considered an option. The international community should think long and hard before authorizing the use of force whether or not we chose to baptize it "humanitarian" exonerating it thus of any negative trait, at least in our minds. Force should always be the very last option explored when all else has failed and destruction is imminent and even then controversy would still inevitably haunt it as a notion. One would first have to consider, however, whether all roads available have been explored and all tools have been exploited and in this case, the diplomatic road doesn't seem to have been traveled as far as it gets. The sanctions alone are but one individual tool in the workshop of diplomacy. While the world's eyes were fixated on Burma last August and September and international attention and pressure increased with Heads of States personally taking an interest to force the government's back against the corner, a glimmer of hope appeared. This glimmer of hope was abruptly taken away when the generals finally became aware that the storm had passed, the world has moved on and the accusatory fingers were pointing at some other injustice. This is why the most important thing of all is to not forget Burma and to never assume that the ugliness that once disturbed us so is not there just because we are no longer exposed to it. Faye Karavasili Attorney at law
Imposing sanctions as a quick and politically beneficial remedy
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalaafrica
CAMEROON: Retirement of President Paul Biya or Amendment of the Constitution Chilling Future or Bright Future? By Denis M. Mallo
BEFORE EVALUATING the disquieting social and political climate in this country, let us remind ourselves of some basic facts. Cameroon, which is situated in the West Coast of the African continent, shares borders with Nigeria to the west, Chad and Central African Republic to the East, and the Republic of Congo and Gabon to the South. The country is comprised of well over 200 ethnic groups or tribes and, though English and French are the official languages, there are about 270 local languages spoken. The population is estimated to be about 18 million according to a 2006 census. This oil-rich nation is also endowed with several other natural resources, including bauxite, iron ore, timber, and hydropower. Unlike most sub-Saharan African countries, Cameroon had enjoyed a relative stability within a regional context of widespread civil unrest. As a result of this comparative advantage, the country has increasingly become a dependable political and economic ally to most sub-Saharan African countries and powerful countries such as the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and Brazil. The Cameroonian government has been courted by these different economic powers to assist in the fight against terrorism, money laundering, drug trafficking, poverty, and various pandemics. In 2007, the French officials at the United Nations selected Cameroon as location for the future UN International Center for African Police in charge of peacekeeping missions on the continent. The United Stated recently invested $54 million to build a state of the art embassy that would support most of their future diplomatic work in the region. The United States has also shortlisted Cameroon as potential location for its future U.S. Africa Command, in charge of overseeing security cooperation, building partnership capability, providing defense support for non-military missions, and military operations on the African continent. These allies have used various incentives to woo
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the Cameroonian government, including admission to the Bristish Commonwealth or the support of Cameroon's application to international financial organizations for debt forgiveness amid a continuously poor human rights record, fiscal indiscipline, and decades of overt public corruption. The ill-fated events of February 25-29, 2008, which claimed the lives of several young men and women, in addition to massive destruction of public and private infrastructures countrywide, should remind us all as members of the international community to look closely at the ongoing political and social situation in Cameroon. The country's apparent tranquility quickly vanished as a smoke screen and the political and economic life instantly waddled when discontent cabdrivers, business owners, and their syndicate representatives called for a civil protest in response to an unwarranted government's order enacting an additional increase to gasoline prices. This seemingly benign social disagreement worsened rapidly and turned into political threats driven by an arguable general feeling of resentment against the government. Numerous eyewitnesses report that the general public had quietly been dissatisfied with the attitude of the government, which had been unhurried in reallocating the benefits of debt forgiveness to the ordinary citizens that largely sacrificed in order to achieve the prerequisite economic results prescribed by the international financial organizations and other private creditors. While economic indicators showed a recovery, the majority of Cameroonians still experience unemployment, unequal distribution of wealth, and economic injustice. According to local Human Rights groups, the civil protest resulted on a loss of over 70 innocent lives and destruction of countless public and private properties throughout the country. As the death toll rose and the situation clearly became a political and economic liability, this show of aggression was
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Paul Biya, President of the Republic of Cameroon, addresses the general debate of the sixty-second session of the General Assembly, at UN Headquarters in New York UN Photo/Marco Castro
sensibly defused by government officials, including the President himself, who decided to revamp the new order and lower gasoline prices. A few days later, the President continued the damage control campaign and signed another order providing for a 15 percent salary re-adjustment to public servants and police forces that had seen their wages progressively reduced by up to 75 percent over a long decade of stringent structural adjustments. Though the government may have handled the situation skillfully and immediately empathized with the population by addressing their need a week following the end of protests, there remains a doubtful sensation sweeping through the population. On the one hand, opposition leaders have noted that those readjustment measures are not enough to improve the standard of living of the population, for public servants and police forces represent less than 30% of the overall labor force. On the other hand, public opinion has reported that the President's new expression of empathy for the Cameroonian people, who he has rather accustomed to condescension, is backed by an ill-conceived intention to amend the Constitution and allow himself to remain in office for another term. Noting all of these, it appeared urgent to reflect critically on whether the Constitution should be amended or the President be eligible for another term. Should the constitution be amended? Should the president be eligible for another term? According to the government, the ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM), and the President, the answer clearly is a positive. The President has lent his strongest support for the amendment of the Constitution. He has backed his decision mainly with his supporters' continuous public display of consensus for the amendment beginning in the aftermath of the 2004 presidential elections. Yet, he has also suggested that his support for an amendment is embedded on his personal commitment to democratic ideals. President Paul Biya has argued that the 1996 Constitution, as is and namely its article 6 al.2, alienated people's individual right to elect the candidate they would want. The
government, members of his political party, and he have thus repeatedly hammered this fundamental democratic principle as the sole driving force of their intention to amend the Constitution a third time in his 26-year presidency. Moreover, they have consistently rejected the widespread rumors that their actions are intended for their leader's potential lifetime presidency. Evading the question related to a presumed lifetime presidency, the incumbent himself has pressed that he looked forward to leaving a legacy of the Cameroonian President who set off democracy and championed democratic ideals. Nevertheless, several questions remain unanswered in consideration to the fact that the ruling CPDM was the majority party in the Parliament when the Constitution was amended in 1996. Why did the members of this party, which almost singled-handedly charted the current Constitution, initially include such an article if it were in violation of basic democratic ideals? Furthermore, the current Constitution has mandated the creation of a bicameral parliament that would include the Senate and the National Assembly, in addition to semi-autonomous regions that would replace the provinces. Why have the government, members of the ruling political party and President not shown the same commitment to democracy in assuring that the other components of the Constitution are implemented in over 10 years? Finally, an objective evaluation of Constitutions from other countries shows that some of the most advanced democracies in the world have enacted laws to limit eligibility to executive offices, including the President's. With all the evidence, it is safe to argue that these overt expressions of sympathy or unexpected passionate claims for democracy have plainly been in contradiction with the government regular actions. And a long held public office has the advantage of providing people with innumerable measures through which they can scrutinize an incumbent. Leaders of opposition parties, civil society, and the people at large have vehemently questioned the timing of the sudden change of heart. According to various internet sites, publications, and ongoing public petitions, the majority of Cameroonians rejects the idea of another amendment. They have
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Searching through various national and international publications, I realized once again that the opposition parties and civil society have no viable alternatives or candidates
not strongly explained the reasons for their rebuttal; however there is a perceptive aspiration to end the lasting presidency of Mr. Paul Biya. In addition to his longevity in office, a few of the dissenters would mention his arguable incompetence to keep the economic forces in check, or the social as well as political order of the country as grounds for their grievances. Objectively, political analysts have found several shortcomings to his so-called seminarist approach of leadership by proxy doubled with philosophical and abstract rhetorics. These observers also agree that his leadership has bred many of the ongoing problems; ethno-cultural divisions, tribalism, nepotism, egoism, personality cult, embezzlement, fiscal irresponsibility, and the like. Fellow Cameroonians have portrayed his said diplomacy of distance and discretion as ineffective to tackle important issues in a competitive global economy. During his last official trip to France, President Biya taped an interview with a French TV network, the global all-news channel French 24. Among the questions, he was bluntly asked why he does not grant interviews whether to national or international media. In fact, despite the important role of France in African politics, in over 20 years he had only granted one to the French media. He acknowledged this fact, explained awkwardly that he was old-schooled, and thus rather preferred the more elitist and condescending communication method of giving speeches. He further bragged he had delivered several speeches over the referenced 20-year period. However, people have since rightly responded that in a 21st century information age, it is noticeably an inconvenience to have an elected official who does not grant interviews (whatever the reason). It would be accommodating for the President's positions to be openly probed and challenged as he communicates his views to the public. The media has to be able to play its part in a democratic system. As a result, those who have consistently complained about his leadership and called for the end his presidency somehow seem to have a valid case. Regardless, the next question Cameroonians may want to ask themselves is, should this term be the last one for this president, what would be the alternative solutions or choices? Searching through various national and international publications, I realized once again that the opposition parties and civil society have no viable alternatives or candidates. Just like the current president, most opposition leaders have been heads of their corresponding parties for as long as their formations have existed. They have used the same tactics within their parties as Mr. Paul Biya, in other words,
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they have led with a strong hand; they have divided their parties to remain in charge, and have failed to clearly present the ideology of their parties to the people. During elections, they often rely on buying votes like the ruling party as opposed to appealing to the general public with effective programs. Some of the major opposition parties won city elections and failed to impact any real change in the lives of the citizens. So, though most people seem to be eagerly awaiting the departure of the current president in 2011, there are concerns among the brightest citizens who understand that even the departure of the president may not translate into ecstatic future for the country. As a matter of fact, Cameroonians may be faced with even greater problems. For at least the current president has the advantage of having been around for a longtime and knowing the high expectations of the job. Still many do not want to think about the alternative choices. They would not even reflect on the fact that the current president was (officially) never defeated in any elections in which he participated in part for the simple reason that the opposition parties had never been able to agree on a single candidate or effectively appeal to the masses through their organization and message. For the ruling party, it seems difficult to envision a future without their current leader. In fact, though the current Constitution keeps their leader from running for another term in office, they still remain hopeful. They're very optimistic about the amendment of the Constitution. They have not openly made the argument that he would be their candidate, but several have called on him to consider running for another term once the Constitution is amended. Many of the underprivileged Cameroonians obviously feel that these calls for reelection are more motivated by egoism and personal gains than anything else. They also do not see any real difference between, the current president and the opposition leaders. A number of Cameroonians hold the view that, Mr. Paul Biya equates Mr. Fru Ndi, who equates Dr. Adamou Ndam Njoya, who himself equates any of the other potential candidates. However, others further point to the referenced fact that there is no genuine leader in the opposition capable of taking over. Looking at the political scene realistically, any future candidate from the current ruling party would have greater chances of getting elected President. They have a better organization in an imperfect political system; they have the advantage of being in power and having a majority in the Parliament. They have control over all sectors of the economic and political life of a country in recession. I am assuming the proper question is whether it would be in the country's interest or their
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A civil war would accentuate this reality and EU countries and the United States already struggling with several domestic issues would have yet to address the problem of these additional displaced people as well
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party's to have the current president run for another term. What impact would the overall situation have on the international community? Why should the international community care about the situation in this African Country? Some political scientists once concluded, countries do not have friends, they only have interests. With that in mind, the situation in Cameroon should be of interest to many of its partners. There are rising suspicions that the political warfare that had crippled Liberia, Ivory Coast, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Togo, Chad, Zimbabwe, and recently Kenya may soon be transferring to Cameroon as well. Officially, the ruling party overwhelmingly won the last legislatives in 2007 with 153 seats out of 180 available, but most people disagreed with those results, feeling that the elections were rigged as usual. In the aftermath of the elections, opposition parties and civil society leaders accused the government of irregularities, including distribution of multiple voter registration cards to single individuals and used of gerrymandering techniques, aimed at assuring a big win to the ruling party (at least 120 seats or the 2/3 majority required to pass any new bill). The population had anticipated the ruling party's intention to amend the Constitution. Therefore, the overall situation has rather been disturbing since the recent civil unrest that reportedly resulted in the arrest of about 1600 people. The government is standing firm on its intention to use its supremacy in the Parliament to amend the Constitution. Most of the country's allies have spoken out against manipulating the Constitution to retain power and called on the government to be cautious of what could become another sub-Saharan African tragedy. It is understood that as a sovereign country, Cameroon could not be dictated a way out of the potential crisis but the international community would evidently need to put more pressure on the government to deter a foreseeable disaster. There is an interest in acting swiftly, not only because another civil war would mean more deaths, destruction, and needed foreign assistance, but also because it would impact the social and economic lives in other countries. Due to an unfriendly and lasting political stimulus, Cameroon was already among the top native countries which produced the most asylum seekers in Europe and United States.
would have yet to address the problem of these additional displaced people as well. To end, I would like to paraphrase one great American President and remind ourselves that, we must discourage wars. We must persuade our neighbors to compromise whenever possible. We have to point to them how the nominal winner is often a real loser-in death toll, destruction, and waste of time. As members of the international community, we have a superior opportunity of being great individuals. And we'll reap unforeseeable benefits. Denis M. Mallo PhD in International Political Economy References The Presidency of the Republic of Cameroon, www.prc.cm US Department of State, www.state.gov National Democratic Institute, www.ndi.org The Cameroon Portal, www.cameroon-info.net Le Premier Reseau de la Zone Cemac, www.icicemac.com Cameroon, The World Factbook, www.cia.gov African Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, www.africa.upenn.edu The Cameroon Students Association in the USA, www.camsausa.org The Commonwealth, www.thecommonwealth.org Dr. Christopher Fomunyoh, "En tant que Camerounais, je suis preoccupe par l'avenir de mon pays" TFF, The Fomunyoh Foundation, www.tffcam.org Constitution of the Republic of Cameroon, Historical Dictionary of the Republic of Cameroon 3rd Edition Dr. Celestin Monga, "Overcoming the Curse: Keynote Address at the 22nd Annual Convention of the Cameroon Students Association in the USA" Aug. 2007 Dicklitch Susan, "Failed Democratic Transition in Cameroon: A Human Rights Explanation" Human Rights Quarterly - volume 24, Feb 2002 Pour le Liberalisme Communautaire, (The Communal Liberalism) Paul Biya 1987 L'Afrique Noire est Mal Partie, (False Start in Africa) Rene Dumont, 1966
A civil war would accentuate this reality and EU countries and the United States already struggling with several domestic issues
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Saharawi Women and Their Struggle for Independence By Senia Bachir Abderahman
IN THE RECENT YEARS, Africa has been perpetuated in the media - both TV and print - as the symbol of poverty, hunger and oppression. The situation of women especially has been misinterpreted and they are seen as uneducated and uninvolved in the social and political construction of their prospective societies. The people of Africa we hear about and see in the media are starving refugee women and children. In this article, I would like to present another image of African refugees as an example of women's important role in the society. The purpose of present article is to look at how the Saharawi (natives of the Western Sahara) women have both directly and indirectly participated in the struggle for independence of the Western Sahara. I also attempt to look at the social structure that helped create an environment where more women are becoming involved and empowered. Through personal experience and examples of women who have lived first hand in this erupted region, I hope to give insight into the important role that women have played in more than three-decade-long struggle. I come from the biggest refugee camp in the world. It has existed for such a long time in such a remote place that I imagine most people elsewhere do not even know about it. I belong to the Saharawi people of Western Sahara, a country currently occupied by Morocco. Western Sahara is situated in the desert region of northwest Africa and it is rich in minerals and oil. It is bordered from the north by Morocco, from the south by Mauritania, from the east by Algeria and Mauritania and from the west by the Atlantic Ocean. This region used to be a
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Spanish colony for over a century. When the Spaniards left the country, the people did not celebrate their independence for more than a couple of months when both Morocco and Mauritania doubly invaded the territory in 1975 (Hodges 5). Three years later, Mauritania withdrew and Morocco took over the entire region. After sixteen years of violence, which led to the death of hundred of thousands, the kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front: the Movement for the Liberation of Saguia el Hamra and Rio de Oro signed a ceasefire in 1991. Three decades later, this conflict is still to be unsolved and more than 200,000 refugees still remain in the Algerian desert (Hodges 8). Historically in the Saharawi nomadic life, women have been involved in many leadership positions in the society. Unlike in many Muslim and Arab societies, Saharawi women could inherit property and could subsist independently of fathers, brothers and husbands (Lippert 638). Moreover, women ruled the tents and played a major role in tribal life. Since most men spent a lot of time away from the "frig" (a group families or a camp) warring or trading, it was the women who had the full responsibility for everything. They watched over the cattle, took care of the children, the guests and the community as a whole. Moreover, women were the ones consulted when it came to tribal decisionmaking. There are historical accounts of women's direct participation in the "ait Arbeen's" meetings. "Ait Arbeen" used to be the highest political and social constitution in the Saharawi society and it was made up of representatives from the forty tribes in the region. In these meetings many issues are discussed concerning matters in the "frig" as well as in the nation as a whole. Similarly, it was the
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Saharawi refugee in Argelia Photo: Agaila Abba
mothers and the grandmothers who decided upon the value of dowry for the wedding of any girl. Although, most if not all marriages were arranged amongst families and the girls were not to be consulted. This in one way was a struggle for young girls and so nowadays arranged marriages are becoming less common. When the Polisario Front was founded to fight against Spanish colonialism, Saharawi women responded immediately and started participating in this struggle. The women's first activities were conventional. They started recruiting their husbands and sons to join the front, provided shelter for the Saharawi Popular Liberation Army (SPLA) members and contributed materially to aid the struggle. Later on, their role widened and they founded the National Union of Saharawi Women (NUSW) in 1974, which participated alongside with the Polisario Front militarily and politically (Lippert 642). When the bloody war started between Morocco and the Polisario guerilla fighters, women from the NUSW were ready to take action. Many young women took up arms and started to fight with the SPLA militants. In addition, they guarded prisoners captured during the war. One of the first martyrs of the war was Chaia Ahmed Sein who was a woman. Moreover, the death of several women was occasionally reported from the different battles between the Front and the Moroccan army. In addition, Saharawi women soldiers took charge of people fleeing the major towns of the Western Sahara for refuge in the Algerian desert. They were the ones who organized shelter, supplies and protection for the
refugees who were primarily women and children. Now in the camps, women play the most important role in all sectors. The Saharawi refugee camps in Southern Algeria are 90% women and children (Lawless et al. 190). This is due to the fact that the majority of able men joined Polisario Front's army and were fighting against Morocco. It was the women who created the camps and still are the most responsible ones in all aspects of life for the refugees. Saharawi women occupy most of the basic jobs in the camps: education, administration and health. At the present, it is believed that more than 90% of the teachers are women. In contrast, in the early years of the camp, there were only two women teachers because females were not allowed to study during the Spanish colonialism. Similarly, the majority of the nurses are females; there are also few female doctors who earned their degrees in foreign countries such as Cuba. My mother for instance graduated from a Libyan university with a degree in education and so she has been a teacher for over twenty years in the camps. In addition, she was just elected as a primary school director this year. This is also very common amongst women nowadays. Despite the fact that all jobs are unpaid, everyone works for the good of the whole community. They all want their children to be the future generation of a free Western Sahara and build an independent nation like other countries. In the same way, my neighbor is currently one of the two surgeons in the camp. She studied in Cuba for twenty-four years and came back to serve
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When the bloody war started between Morocco and the Polisario guerilla fighters, women from the NUSW were ready to take action. Many young women took up arms and started to fight with the SPLA militants. In addition, they guarded prisoners captured during the war.
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the community. Furthermore, not only are women actively involved in the social construction of life in the camps, but also are involved in the political arena as well. As my grandmother recalls, in the early days of the creation of the camps, women had to start building it from literally nothing. For this, the NUSW has played a major role in the political formation in the camps. The camps are divided into four provinces (Willaya) named after the major cities in the occupied territories of Western Sahara. Each Willaya is subdivided into Daira or camp with a population of about 5,000 people (Lerner 9). The political makeup of each Willaya is entirely in the hands of women, especially in the Dairas. Every four years, a mayor is elected for the Willaya, who is a man in most cases with the exception of Smara, which is the province I live in. It was the first one to have a women mayor in the early 1990s, as my grandmother told me. Nevertheless, the heads of all Dairas are women, who are elected yearly from a group of candidates. In contrast, women's representation in higher political position is quite small. Currently, there is only one woman-minister who is the minister of culture and sport and there are about two women ambassadors in Germany and Kenya. In the present, women are fighting in other forms, which is that of education. Sadly enough, there are much fewer women studying abroad than men. However, the ones who have the opportunity are carrying on with the struggle of their mothers and grandmothers. I was born in a refugee camp and have lived as refugee my whole life. I was born in a tent, where seven members of my family still live. The temperature can climb to 125 degrees Fahrenheit. It rains once
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or twice a year. We get everything from food to cloths from International Humanitarian Aid. Due to unavailability of educational facilities, at the age of eight I had to leave my family to attend a boarding school in northern Algeria, thousands of miles away from my camp. I would come back only for the summer break to see them. After that, I was selected as the first Saharawi to study in United World Colleges in Norway for two years, and now I am yet the first Saharawi woman to ever attend Mount Holyoke College. I represent a group of women who are fighting for a country they have never seen but strongly believe in justice for its people. The role Saharawi women play internationally is very crucial to the Saharawi struggle for independence because this struggle in general and that of women specifically is virtually unheard of in most parts of the world. As a representative of the Saharawi women, I try to talk about our struggle in the small scale with my friends at the lunch table and on the big scale when speaking before the UN Fourth Committee. In addition, I got the opportunity to give presentations both in Norway and now in the USA about the current situation of the conflict in general and women in particular. Moreover, it is - I believe - the new generation that would make a difference for this on-going struggle. Women around the world have struggled over centuries for many rights and equal opportunities with the dominant males. Saharawi women, on the contrary, did not have to go through that stage. Nonetheless, they had to struggle for another type of right, which is that of freedom and independence for their country. Saharawi women have played and still play a major role in the
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The role Saharawi women play internationally is very crucial to the Saharawi struggle for independence because this struggle in general and that of women specifically is virtually unheard of in most parts of the world.
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Saharawi women have played and still play a major role in the liberation of Africa's last colony: Western Sahara. Over the course of these thirty-three years, Saharawi women have developed many skills, ranging from military to education
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liberation of Africa's last colony: Western Sahara. Over the course of these thirty-three years, Saharawi women have developed many skills, ranging from military to education. In addition, they have gained power in many aspects of life: political, educational and most importantly social. These skills will hopefully help in the development and the creation of free Western Sahara. The occupation of Western Sahara may have been the greatest factor in pushing the Saharawi women to excel in the society compared to many women in the Arab world. This is to say, if life and the situation in the country had been easier there might have not been the need to push the women to do as well. Hence, one of the biggest questions is would the Saharawi women have been in the position they are in today if their country had not been occupied?
Western Sahara conflict." London; New York: Pinter, 1987 Lerner, Gail. "Women of the Sahara: model of self-reliance." New York: Women's International Resource Exchange, 1988 Lippert, Anne. "Sahrawi Women in the Liberation Struggle of the Sahrawi People." Revisions/Reports V.17 NO.3, 1992
Senia Bachir Graduated in Biology
Work cited: Hodges, Tony. "Western Sahara: the roots of a desert war." Westport, Conn.: L. Hill, 1983 Lawless, Richard I. and Monahan, Laila. "War and refugees: the
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Anti-Americanism in the Middle East By Sumra Salem
THE SUCCESSFULLY DEMOCRATIC and capitalist United States became the world's sole superpower after defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War. The nation subsequently began to dominate the globe militarily, politically, economically, technologically and also culturally, leading to the establishment of what some refer to as the American century. Krastev acknowledges that in the post-September 11 era, we are in fact entering the anti-American century. It is thus that antiAmericanism today is a response to grievances against the U.S. more so than simply a prejudice against America as often argued, particularly in regards to anti-Americanism in the Middle East. Despite its prominence as a recent political issue and its presently immense proportions, antiAmericanism boasts a long history, originating in France during the 18th Century. France has always been seen as a country possessing some of the strongest anti-American sentiments and indeed the most fervent within Europe. There are several definitions of the term though the American Heritage Dictionary defines it simply as, "opposed or hostile to the government, official policies, or people of the United States". Critics and opponents of the superpower not only comprise of disgruntled foreigners, but also home grown Americans. Spanning across the globe from Australia to Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North America itself, the reasons for widespread and virulent anti-American attitudes are as vast and diverse as the locations in which they are found. The source of anti-Americanism remains divided between individuals who simply possess a prejudice against America and those who do so in reaction to the nation's actions. Such diversity develops and changes over time with the current dominant source being the latter option, predominantly regarding America's foreign policy
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under the Bush administration. Singh recognises that, "Post- 9/11 American foreign policy provoked a new wave of anti-Americanism, facilitating the widespread public expression of antipathy towards the United States that had been muted in the decade following the end of the Cold War." Middle Eastern anti-Americanism is due to legitimate grievances of the United States' paramount support for Israel, the war in Iraq and the incessant American interference in regional issues and the domestic affairs of Arab nations. As a result, anti-Americanism is more prevalent in the Middle East today than any other region in the world. BBC News captures the thoughts of many who perceive the U.S., "as an international bully, a modern day imperial power". Perhaps the most direct and uncomplicated way to view anti-Americanism is through public opinion polling results. Through such analysis it is interesting to note that findings vary significantly on the opinions of Americans as people, the United States as a nation, U.S. foreign policy, the U.S. government and President Bush. Katzenstein and Keohane discovered that, "the societies most hostile to the United States, by far, are located in the Islamic Middle East and North Africa, along with Pakistan. In both Islamic countries and Europe, attitudes toward Americans are more positive than attitudes toward the United States, and attitudes toward the United States are more positive than attitudes toward American foreign policy or President Bush." A report commissioned by James Zogby and the Arab American Institute in 2004, found that Egypt, one of America's important ally's in the region, holds an amazingly unfavourable opinion of the country with 98 percent of Egyptians possessing a negative attitude of the United States. In Morocco the figure stands at 88 percent, Saudi Arabia, 94 percent and 73 percent in the UAE.
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It seems that the values of which America so proudly asserts, namely freedom, are lost in the realm of American foreign policy, which consequently results in a particularly negative regard of the superpower.
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When asked about their immediate thought of the term, 'America', respondents overwhelmingly replied, 'unfair foreign policy' rather than a dislike of values or culture. The most important issue that influences attitudes is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with American interference also mentioned. In more recent times the grievances have widened and now also include Iraq and the treatment of Arabs and Muslims internationally. Pew surveys clearly indicate how, "shifts in US foreign policy have a discernible impact on how the United States and its people are viewed abroad; [with] the decision to go to war against Iraq in 2003‌ [leading to] a vast increase in ire towards the United States". Suggestions on how to improve America's image in the Arab World resulted in most people recommending that the United States stop supporting Israel and change their biased Middle East policies. It is thus interesting to note that in spite of anti-Americanism in Egypt for example, calculating to a staggering 98 percent as previously mentioned, most of the discontentment is towards the American government rather than its citizens. This is best exemplified by Egyptian political specialist Dr Abdel Monem Said Aly in stating, "ask anyone in Egypt what country they would like to visit, and they will probably say America. Ask them what movie they would like to see and it will probably be an American film. Ask them what school they would like to attend and they will name an American university. They may disagree violently with American policies, but they don't hate America. This is the paradox." The admiration of America as a wonderful place to visit, to live and to study, by many in the Arab world is unfortunately more often than not overshadowed by grievances from policies adversely affecting them in their region. It seems that the values of which America so proudly asserts, namely freedom, are lost in the realm of American foreign policy, which consequently results in a particularly negative regard of the superpower. The widespread deterioration of the U.S. perception in the Middle East is simple when one assesses the popular political grievances of the region. The U.S. neglects to address these issues
with productive public diplomacy which in turn leads to the distrust and resentment of the U.S. government, fuelling anti-American sentiment. Wyne states that at present, America spends roughly 500 times as much on national defence as it does on public diplomacy. Condoleezza Rice was herself quoted as saying, "we are obviously not very well organized for the side of public diplomacy." Rational and justified critiques of U.S. foreign policies in the Middle East are constantly made by the Arab world and are not simply based on prejudices as many American politicians and scholars assert. To define anti-Americanism as a prejudice in this case insinuates that the attitude is based on irrational or unreasonable and preconceived sentiments. Anti-Americanism in the Middle East is directly associated with the effects felt across the region as a result of American policies. Pan-Arabism, a form of cultural nationalism, and Arab solidarity play a vital role in the spread of the anti-Americanism with Arab nations possessing an incredible affinity for each other. Although each country has its own political affairs, the Arab states more often than not, sympathise with and support their fellow Arabs. With Islam being the dominant religion of the Middle East, and indeed a powerful identifying factor among Arabs, it can also be seen that pan-Islamism is a motivating issue attributing to Arab unity on political views and grievances resulting from America's foreign policy actions. Consequently so, when a U.S. foreign policy decision adversely affects any Arab nation, the injustice is felt across the region and attracts criticism and offence from several states in turn contributing to the rise in anti-American feelings. The invasion of Iraq and strong U.S. support for Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are the prime causes of this trend according to several political analysts and the general Arab public. Egyptian film director Yousseff Chahine captures this notion in saying that he, like many, is disturbed by the unrelenting violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and more recently, in Iraq. "All the time I am faced by these scenes, every night on TV. We Arabs feel rejection. But if it was only us, it may not matter. It seems it is also 1 billion Muslims are being rejected."
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Despite convicted abuses of international law and such an appalling human rights record, the U.S. has stood beside Israel in every conflict with Palestinians and Arabs over the past half century.
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It is thus that the focal point of anger against the United States is the condition of the Palestinian people with the U.S., "turning a blind eye to violations of Palestinian rights", as summarised by Schoenbaum. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, also referred to as the Arab-Israeli conflict, contributes tremendously and is the foremost explanation of the high levels of anti-Americanism in the Middle East. Resentment lies in Washington's stance within the conflict and is best exemplified by its substantial support for Israel politically, economically and militarily. Such undying support has effectively enabled Israel to defeat the Arabs and maintain the occupation of their land. Khairallah fundamentally highlights this fact in stating that America's support for Israel, its "consistent assistance to an international outlaw bent on expanding its boundaries", is a, "main generator of bitterness", amongst Arabs. Schoenbaum highlights that according to the U.N.'s principal judicial organ, the International Court of Justice, Israel is in violation of, "several human rights obligations, ‌ major U.N. human rights treaties, including both international covenants and the Convention on the Rights of the Child", in addition to, "the laws of war (international humanitarian law) relating to occupied territories: the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949 and the 1907 Hague Relations." Despite convicted abuses of international law and such an appalling human rights record, the U.S. has stood beside Israel in every conflict with Palestinians and Arabs over the past half century. Makdisi states that the dominant view held in the Arab world recognises U.S. foreign policy regarding the Arab-Israeli conflict as shaped by the pro-Israel lobby. President Bush has caused even further damage to America's image by disregarding the aforesaid ruthless offences and controversially, "referring to [former] Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon as a 'man of peace'" , and stating that Palestinians have, "no right of return", undoubtedly fuelling Arab furore against the administration. Doran identifies the maltreatment of the Palestinians as representing the prejudice of the West toward all Middle Easterners.
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He goes on to state that a common belief in the region is that both the United Kingdom and United States "planted Israel in the Arab world and then nurtured it with the intention of using the Jewish state as an 'imperialist base', a bridgehead for dominating the entire region. For most Arabs, the history of Palestine is thus not simply the story of two peoples struggling for the same land, but rather evidence that unmasks the true and nefarious intentions of the West toward Arabs and Muslims in general." Politically, America has supported Israel in the United Nations Security Council, the General Assembly and in other international organisations also. Such collaboration with the Israeli government is unjust at the expense of the Arabs which in turn generates antagonism against the U.S. in the region. Abdallah reveals that America habitually utilises its veto power, "to block almost any resolution at the U.N. Security Council that would condemn what Arabs see as Israel's excessive use of force against the Palestinians". A leading security advisor to Yasser Arafat, Jibril Rajub, captured mainstream Arab grievances by referring to one of the U.S. vetoes as providing, "cover and protection to the Israeli occupation and support for the destruction and killing of the Palestinians". The strong and indisputable correlation between American political support for Israeli aggression and the antiAmericanism sentiment in the Middle East will continue to prevail as long as the conflict goes on. In terms of economic support, Israel is the largest recipient of U.S. aid despite being the world's 22nd richest country according to the International Monetary Fund and comprising of less than .001 percent of the world's population. In the eyes of the Arab world, American aid is seen as a U.S. attempt to support Israel's flourishing economy and in turn help fund the occupation of Palestinian territories. Bowles points out that aid to Israel differ in three distinct ways to that of given to any other country. Firstly, Israel receives its yearly aid in one lump sum at the beginning of each financial year as opposed to other nations who access their aid payments each quarter. Secondly, unlike other countries Israel does not have to account for the spending of its aid which is inconsistent to the
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The loyal American collaboration with Israel and the consequential Arab suffering is a legitimate source of grievances in the Middle East and prime generator of antiAmericanism
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normal procedure of receiving finance for specific purposes and accounting for purchases. Lastly is the sheer extent of the aid given which is substantially higher than that received by any other country. The aid that Israel has received from America has been essential to Israel's economic success and regional dominance, funding the illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories, effectively depriving the Palestinians of basic human rights along with the right to selfgovern. Also imperative to Israel's power and domination in the region is the extensive military assistance it receives from the United States. America provides its closest ally with sophisticated arms including, "attack helicopters, jetfighters, and missiles that are used to target Palestinians, frequently killing innocent civilians, destroying homes, stores and other buildings", states Abdallah. It is disgraceful that attributable to U.S. supplied and financed military strength, the Israeli Defence Force, the most superior military in the region and as Bowles points out, "the third or forth most powerful army in the world - routinely uses tanks, Apache helicopter gunships, and F-16 fighter jets against a population that has no military and none of the protective institutions of a modern state." The loyal American collaboration with Israel and the consequential Arab suffering is a legitimate source of grievances in the Middle East and prime generator of anti-Americanism. As documented by Abdallah, "U.S. support for Israel is unfair, unbalanced, racist, and the main reason for Israel's victories and humiliation of the Arabs". The American occupation of Iraq also undoubtedly casts a negative image of the U.S. in the Arab world as Israeli and American aggression in Palestine and Iraq lead Arabs to view the two countries as two faces of the same coin. Many in the Middle East view America as employing double standards in regards to enforcing United Nations resolutions. The U.S. habitually disrespects the U.N. when resolutions condemning Israel are issued, yet is so determined to enforce others in favour of American interests. According to the survey conducted by Zogby in 2004, most
Arabs who were polled expressed, "deeply negative and suspicious attitudes toward the Iraq war, as well as disdain for President Bush, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon". The majority of Arab participants claimed that the Iraq war has simply caused more terrorism and brought about less democracy to the country, with Iraqi people far worse off today than they were while living under Saddam Hussein's rule. Linzer concludes that many believed America invaded Iraq for, "oil, to protect Israel and to weaken the Muslim world". Theros thus acknowledges that the Bush administration has increased Arab, "perceptions of fear, contempt and hostility", towards America with the situation in Iraq possibly proving, "to be the worst possible blow to the U.S.'s image in the region". Schneider established in 2004 that the Iraqi people distrust American motives and intentions. When asked whether they thought the U.S. was serious about establishing a true democracy in Iraq, only 37 percent of Iraqis said yes. Furthermore, 71 percent of those polled consider the coalition forces to be occupiers. The Iraq war has in essence been the fuel for more antiAmerican sentiment as the reasoning behind the invasion was based upon lies about weapons of mass destruction and has lead to staggering carnage and destruction. It is a consensual Arab opinion that America's intentions were dominated by a colonial aspiration to control Iraqi oil, further destabilise the region and increase their power. In addition to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and America's assumed imperialistic adventures in Iraq, U.S. air strikes, sanctions, establishment of military bases and general behavior in the region also attracts resentment. The majority of military and economic aid received by Arab states enables undemocratic and oppressive regimes to maintain control over their citizens and threats of withholding foreign aid give the U.S. power in the region. The funding of corrupt regimes is extremely hypocritical as America fails to communicate its virtues and values of freedom and democracy to where it is needed most, yet uses this defence to justify its occupation of Iraq. This is done so solely for the purpose of advances their interests in the Middle East and loses faith in America
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaluusa
George W. Bush, President of the United States of America, addresses a High-Level meeting of the Security Council on Peace and Security in Africa, at UN Headquarters in New York UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe|
from Arab publics. America's treatment of Arabs and Muslims internationally is another cause for concern in the Arab world. The widespread media coverage of the inhumane treatment of prisoners in Guantanamo Bay, Abu Ghraib and also Afghanistan is seen as an American attack on Muslims. American media reports and statements are seen in the Middle East to be extremely biased and derogatory towards Islam. The former deputy general counsel for the World Bank, Khairallah, points out that, the American media and entertainment industry portray Arabs as a, "frightening menace", and that "from reading and hearing U.S. media, you would think Arab anger towards the U.S. is almost genetic," rather than as a result to American foreign policy. Constant attacks on Islam and the portrayal of all Arabs as terrorists by journalists, television presenters, academics, Congress members and religious leaders certainly do not help promote a positive image of America. High profile American individuals have vilified Islam including the Reverend Franklin Graham declaring it, "a very evil and wicked religion", and Reverend Jerry Vines calling Prophet Mohamed, "a demon obsessed pedophile". Columnist Ann Coulter goes on to state that America should in regards to Muslims, "invade their countries, kill their leaders and convert them to Christianity." Anti-Americanism in the Middle East today is a direct result of American foreign policies actions in the region. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak aptly states that, "because of the war in Iraq and Washington's continued support of Israel, hatred of Americans in the Arab world had reached new heights." Shehab and Sid-Ahmed view Washington's unconditional and, "eternal support of the ruling rightwing in Tel Aviv", and thus alliance with, "Israel's increasingly
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uncompromising" and stance on the core issue of Palestine as the foremost reasons for the rancor. Along with the devoted U.S. support for Israel, the unjustified war in Iraq and America's interventions in the Middle East, the support of corrupt Arab governments gives them the legitimacy and power to then suppress their people rather than promote development, freedom or democracy. Arab anti-Americanism not simply a prejudice but rather a legitimate response to inexcusable and disgraceful actions from the world's superpower. It is clear that Middle Eastern attitudes of anti-Americanism are principally a result of unrelenting U.S. support for Israel, hostile American policies and actions in the Arab world. If such policies were to change then so too would Arab perceptions. Abdallah believes that, "solving the Arab-Israeli conflict, ending the U.S. occupation of Iraq, [and] closing its military bases in the Arab world ‌ would end anti-Americanism among the Arabs." Sumra Salem BA in International Relations, Politics and Asian Studies Griffith University, Australia Reference List Abdallah, AM 2003, 'Causes of Anti-Americanism in the Arab World: A Socio-Political Perspective', Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 62-73. Al-Arian, L 2004, 'Perceptions of the U.S. in the Arab World', The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 69-70. Aly, AMS at the World Economic Forum, 2002, 'AntiAmericanism: What's New, What's Next?', Proceedings of the
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Constant attacks on Islam and the portrayal of all Arabs as terrorists by journalists, television presenters, academics, Congress members and religious leaders certainly do not help promote a positive image of America
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Annual Meeting, New York City, New York, January 31- February 4 2002. Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland and Zogby International, 2004, Arab Attitudes Towards Political and Social Issues, Foreign Policy and the Media, http://www.bsos.umd.edu/SADAT/pub/Arab%20Attitudes%20Towa rds%20Political%20and%20Social%20Issues,%20Foreign%20Poli cy%20and%20the%20Media.htm. BBC News 2007, 'Death to US: Anti-Americanism examined', http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6547881.stm. Bowles, M n.d., 'US Aid to Israel: The Lifeblood of Occupation', http://www.wrmea.com/html/usaidtoisrael0001.htm. Chiozza, G 2004, 'Love and Hate: Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World', http://www.nyu.edu/gsas/dept/politics/seminars/chiozza_f04.pdf. Doran, MS 2003, 'Palestine, Iraq and American Strategy', h t t p : / / w w w. f o r e i g n a f f a i r s. o r g / 2 0 0 3 0 1 0 1 f a e s s a y 1 0 2 1 9 p0/michael-scott-doran/palestine-iraq-and-american-strategy.html. International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2007, 'World Economic and Financial Surveys', http://imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/index.aspx. Katzenstein, PJ and Keohane, RO 2005, Types and Sources of Anti-Americanism: A Framework for Analysis, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioural Sciences, Stanford. Krastev, I 2004, 'The Anti-American Century?', Journal of Democracy, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 5-16. Kristof, ND 2002, 'Bigotry in Islam… and here', Washington Post, July 9. Linzer, D 2004, 'Poll Shows Growing Arab Rancor at U.S.', Washington Post, 23 July, p.26. Makdisi, U 2002, 'Anti-Americanism in the Arab World: An Interpretation of a Brief History', The Journal of American History, vol. 89, no. 2. O'Connor, B n.d., A History of Anti-Americanism: From Buffon to
Bush. Schneider, W 2004, 'Anti-Americanism on the Rise', National Journal, vol. 36, no. 19, p. 1464. Schoenbaum, T 2006, International Relations The Path Not Taken, New York, Cambridge University Press. Shehab, S 2003, 'The Intention is Clear', Al-Ahram Weekly, 2329 October. Sid-Ahmed, M 1980, 'Shifting Sands of Peace in the Middle East', International Security, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 53-79. Singh, R 2005, Are we all Americans now? in O'Connor, B and Griffiths, M (eds) The Rise of Anti-Americanism, New York, Routledge, pp. 25-47. Smith, L 2004, 'Understanding Arab Anti-Americanism', http://www.slate.com/id/2099413/. The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language, 2004, 4th edn, Boston, Houghton Mifflin Company. Theros, P in Al-Arian, L 2004, 'Perceptions of the U.S. in the Arab World', The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, vol. 23, no. 7, pp. 69-70. Williams, D 2004, 'Anti-Americanism a Hit with Egyptian Audiences', Washington Post, 20 August. Wright, R 2004, 'U.S. Struggles to Win Hearts, Minds in the Muslim World, Washington Post, 20 August. Wyne, AS 2006, 'The Dangerous Misuse of Anti-Americanism', The Tech, 5 December, p.4.
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalllatin america
Final tune? The future of Cuba By Juan Luis Dorado
A fEW YEARS AGO, when questioned about the future of Cuba after Fidel's death, the philosopher Senel Paz said that the only thing he could confirm is that there would be a funeral. Today, in 2008, the funeral of the Cuban leader is the only sure thing after his death. After retiring from active politics in February 2008, news that, although expected, shook the foundations of international politics, leaving open multiple options for the political, economic and social future of the Island. All of this was foreseen and planned by the agile political mind of the leader of the Revolution: his brother RaĂşl's succession, predicted many years ago; and the time that it was implemented. Fidel Castro wanted to go out on the front line, as he would be following in the footsteps of the ideological soul of the Cuban regime, leaving everything neatly tied up. He chose the right moment. On the one hand, parliamentary elections taking place in Cuba, which does not seem like giving up power, rather a more natural procedure; on the other, the electoral whirlpool of the United States, in full political campaign mode. In his message to the world, published in the digital edition of Granma, there are several pearls that could be considered as historical. Firstly, his convalescence served to "prepare the Cuban people for his absence, psychologically and politically to prepare our people both politically and psychologically for my absence," something that qualified as his "first duty after so many years of struggle."
"The path will always be difficult," continued Fidel Castro, and will require "everyone's intelligent effort." In a clear message to cling onto the Revolution, and a new warning of foreign dangers, the Commander calls once again for the unity of all Cubans against external pressure and to "be prepared for the worst variable," as "the adversary to be defeated is extremely strong." Before giving way to young people, although accompanied by the old guard, that according to Fidel's words, "have the authority and the experience to guarantee the replacement." To define himself, he gave himself a new role in the Revolution: "soldier in the battle of ideas," a role that would allow him to keep fighting with "another weapon you can count on." This leaves two things clear: firstly, that Fidel will always be political and ideological soul of the Island. Secondly, when it comes to taking big decisions, he will always be the first person that his brother consults. For his part, RaĂşl Castro has time ahead of him to apply economic reforms that have been foreseen for years, shifting Cuban socialism to one like in China: better economic liberalisation, along with better social and ideological control. As for electoral year in the United States, Fidel Castro took the decision to leave power when President George Bush, on his way out, has his hands tied. The future president will arrive when the younger Castro brother has been confirmed and accepted by several international players.
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As for the last 50 years, the changes and new situation will be taken with an unusual calm. In some way, they suspect that although the names have changed, it will be business as usual.
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All of this, with the permanent support of the loyal Hugo Chávez, who still keeps Fidel and the Cuban Revolution on his ideological pedestal next to Rafael Correa and Evo Morales, as well as investment from countries such as Spain and China, can help support Raúl's plans. However, Cuban society will continue at its own pace. As for the last 50 years, the changes and new situation will be taken with an unusual calm. In some way, they suspect that although the names have changed, it will be business as usual. Reactions It was predictable that international reactions would not take long after Fidel Castro's decision. First came those of his allies, who were ready to back his successor Raúl Castro's work. Secondly came those of countries tougher on the regime, especially the United States. Also more neutral countries, like the members of the European Union, of which especially Spain could play a decisive role as mediator in the short-term future. Hugo Chávez was emphatic: "Men like him never retire," and recorded that Fidel has shown to the world "that the Cuban Revolution does not depend on one person." In contrast to this reaction, the US President, George Bush, declared that it is time to "begin a period of a democratic transition in Cuba." However, Bush is aware that his time in the White House is coming to an end, and it is because of this that his declarations did not go beyond his desire "to construct the necessary institutions for democracy, with a transition that will be driven towards free and just elections". From Bush's conclusion, one doubt is left: what of the embargo? The answer came from the Deputy Secretary of State for the United States, John Negroponte. "I do not imagine that the lifting of our country's embargo on Cuba will happen any time soon," he said forcefully. He failed to add that this is while the Castros are alive. The exile was more cautious than what was hoped, aware that the power that Raúl is taking on is stable. The Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) asked the new Cuban Parliament "to put an end to
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the Castro dynasty," demanding to be able to vote for someone other than Raúl. However, they were aware that this petition was not feasible. Latin American reacted with caution, but most of all, they supported Fidel's decision, and they asked for tranquillity and were with Raúl Castro from the moment that he was named as the new Cuban President. From Brazil, 'Lula' da Silva was the only one who expressed his fears towards Castro's retirement, in case it creates "a turbulent climate," in which "Miami Cubans consider returning and trying to take power." The rest of the reactions were calmer. Mexico expressed its desire for tranquillity and President Felipe Calderón assured that he would "follow the political events closely during this new stage in Cuba's history." Without a doubt, the international focus is on the European Union, for its role as the most independent mediator for the political future of the Island. The relationship between Brussels and Havana has gone through several phases in the last 20 years, marked mostly by the Spanish government.The tensest years were when José María Aznar was President of the government. Since Zapatero's arrival, everything became more stable and returned to a normality that has given fruit to the human rights negotiations which took place in the last few months. When the EU High Representative Javier Solana learnt of Brussels' desire for Cuba "lead itself to a peaceful and quick transition that will benefit all Cubans." This is the same international discourse that the EU has always with respect to Cuba. Nothing new. The majority of reactions were in the line of maintaining the institutionality, although there few firm signatures for a future democracy in Cuba. Not even from the United States, not the White House, nor exile, expressed a stronger attitude. This is confirmation that Fidel has achieved what he set out to do: facilitate Raúl's rise to power, as something natural, as something hoped and will give him time to initiate his own reforms.
Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalllatin america
“Men die, the party is immortal”, slogan of Cuban Revolution, Havana Photo: Global Affairs
Future Plans After learning of Fidel Castro's decisions, international analysts were contacted to give their theories over all that could happen in Cuba in the coming future. They analysed all possible scenarios, but they gave little ground as to the real possibilities that Raúl Castro has, not trust to in the power that he has inherited, but make evolution the Cuban economy. Raúl has always been more realistic than his brother, and his economic measures reactivated the Island's economy slightly, during the so-called "special period" after the fall of the USSR at the beginning of the 90s. For this, they would have to leave time for Raúl Castro to, with some new conditions in the country and the international scene, apply his reforms on the face of achieving a new system that could be called "Cuban socialism Chinese style." We cannot hope for large measures or a total liberalisation in the short term, because, as Raúl himself said in his first speech as President, the first thing is to improve the situation of the Cuban people. Then will come the international conjuncture's turn. However, it is certain, that today, in 2008, Cuba is not isolated, and with its new supporters, above all with the members of the Bolivian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), it can face reforms, both interior and exterior ones.
Raúl Castro has time ahead of him to elaborate a double strategy for his work of Government. Firstly, taking care of developing an internal policy that makes Cubans' day-to-day lives easier, applying measures that promote production and exportation to partner countries and that have positive consequences so that, little by little, the level of rations books increases. This should be the first big objective of Raúl Castro: improve the situation of the Cuban people on all levels. For this, economic and diplomatic support will be fundamental from countries such as China, Venezuela and Bolivia. Then will come the second great phase: international conjuncture The new President of Cuba will have to take it slow to gain trust on the international playing field. First of all, he will have to make allies with his Latin American allies, especially Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Then he should work on cementing a new relationship with the biggest players in the area: Brazil, Argentina and Columbia. Once steps have been taken in Latin American diplomacy, then will come the moment for the rest of the International Community. Here, Raúl Castro and the rest of the leadership of the Regime have to define what role and influence Chinese socialism will have on the future and Cuban evolution. China is building itself up to be a reference in the future of Cuba. It is a point of reference for many reasons, but mainly for the fact of
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With the arrival of new players into the game, most of all in the first few years of the 21st Century, Havana has seen its power get stronger, and counted on partners and allies that would allow the Revolution to take new steps towards the future
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having converted itself into a fundamental player in capitalist society without abandoning socialism. Without a doubt, it is these steps, on a different scale, naturally, that Raúl Castro has to face up to in order to introduce Cuba into the dynamics of global markets without abandoning the Revolution. And then the United States. It is evident that none of the presidential candidates, McCain on one side, and Obama or Clinton on the other, will want to pay the political price of going down in history as 'the one who lifted the embargo on Cuba'. But it is also certain, that the attitude could be one of major discussion (a lesser discussion is not possible) and if the Regime takes steps towards the economic game that Washington likes to play, the answer could be more positive for relations between both countries. The last tune? Since the fall of the Soviet Union, there have been regular moments when the Cuban transition after the Castro Regime ends has been more or less discussed. With the passage of time and North American administrations, the Cuban government has maintained itself, more or less isolated, leaving a precarious situation of isolation. With the arrival of new players into the game, most of all in the first few years of the 21st Century, Havana has seen its power get stronger, and counted on partners and allies that would allow the Revolution to take new steps towards the future. Today, however, the situation is radically different. Fidel Castro has left active politics, left the first line. Once more he has shown his strategic talent at choosing the right moment, as during all of his illness, the Cuban population got accustomed to the Head of State not being present, up until the arrival of "Reflections of Comrade Fidel' in the Granma. Life continued at the Cuban rhythm on the Island. The tranquillity with which the population took Castro's decision surprised international forums, and perhaps also his resignation. The idea that the main personalities would change, but their lives and customs are so
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conditioned to the presence of the Communist Party, that they are realistic and are aware that the changes, if they come, will not be tomorrow. Fidel Castro is no longer the Commander in Chief of the Revolution; now he is Comrade Fidel. It is now Raúl Castro who flaunts the stick of power. But the shadow of his brother is elongated, and there is no doubt that he will be consulted first on any vital decisions for the future of the Regime. So, the music keeps playing in Cuba, with the same rhythm as always, without stopping. This is how political life in Cuba is today and always will be: tranquil, but with no stopping. This is how any changes (if they happen) in the future will succeed on the Island. Fidel Castro will remain on the compass of life in Cuba in all fields, as he has been in the last 50 years. But now he will not be the leader of the orchestra, rather hired to write the songs, to give them form via his weekly reflections. No one can guess what will happen in Cuba in the next few years. Faced with the prospect of Fidel's absence, possibilities and theories are rocketing. The only thing that seems secure is that Castro has not yet written his last tune. Juan Luis Dorado Journalist specialised in Latin American politics.
Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaleeurope
Building Europe, isolating the US
By Glen Ruffle
THE NEW TREATY OF LISBON strengthens international liberalism, but in doing so, does it isolate states which wish to pursue independent, unilateral, courses of action? In particular, is it isolating the United States? And do US unilateralists actually have something to teach us in Europe about democracy? The recently signed Treaty of Lisbon, the replacement for the European Constitution, takes "ever closer union" to new levels. Yet it also is a statement of the type of international order the European Union wants to be a part of. It clearly places the Union in the role of buttressing the United Nations system of multilateralism, and in opposition to unilateralism. Article 21, paragraph 2 (h) of the Consolidated Treaty of Lisbon states that the EU shall "promote an international system based on stronger multilateral cooperation and good global governance". In essence, the Treaty places the European Union as a support to the multilateral international system represented by the United Nations. Throughout the Treaty, there are references to the role of the European Union with the United Nations: - Article 3.5 states that the EU, as an aim, shall contribute to "…the strict observance and the development of international law, including respect for the principles of the United Nations Charter". - In Article 21 of Title V of the Treaty amending the European Union, the EU is again placed in a supporting role for the United Nations. "The Union's action on the international scene…shall…respect…the principles of the United Nations Charter and international law". The article moves on to commit the EU to promoting "…multilateral solutions to common problems, in particular in the framework of the United Nations."
Under the Provisions on the Common Security and Defence Policy, Article 42 of the Treaty, the EU commits Member States to solidarity by stating that: "If a Member State is the victim of armed aggression on its territory, the other Member States shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power, in accordance with Article 51 of the United Nations Charter". Yet this article is stepping onto the territory of NATO. In other clauses of the Treaty, it seems as though the EU is developing a parallel system to NATO (via the European Defence Agency (Article 45) and a worrying commitment to the remilitarization of Europe in Article 42, paragraph 3) that shall exist in parallel silence until a situation emerges in which NATO does not wish to act, but the EU does. At such a time, the EU will have a fully fledged military structure ready and waiting to be used, thus most probably will render NATO useless. - The Treaty passes into law the demand that the EU shall establish all forms of cooperation with UN organs and agencies (Article 220, TFEU), and in the area of humanitarian aid, the EU is committing itself to ensuring that its aid operations are "…coordinated and consistent with those of international organizations and bodies, in particular those forming part of the United Nations system" (Article 214.7, TFEU). None of these provisions are particularly controversial or necessarily bad things. It is good not to duplicate humanitarian aid efforts, and to work with the United Nations to make the observation of international law the normal thing for states in their international relations. Yet at a philosophical level, there appears to be a clear placing of the EU in opposition to unilateral action, and thus states who adopt it, the United States being the most obvious target of this. By buttressing the UN system, the EU is pushing US
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The Treaty of Lisbon is thus a component of a wider international vision that is driven by the liberal agendas that created the United Nations, and the League of Nations before it
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unilateralists into further isolation, instead of drawing them out into the international system. The void of American power is therefore left open for the EU, China, Russia and other powers to try and fill. This has democratic implications as well. The former US Ambassador to the United Nations, John Bolton, defined sovereignty as power that belongs to the people of a nation. Any attempt at 'sharing' that sovereignty with others, is in fact, sovereignty lost, not gained, as the people are losing power to control their own destiny democratically. The alternative argument, as expressed in Britain's House of Lords by Lord Watson of Richmond during the Nice Treaty debates, is that "by pooling sovereignty, in effect, we increase sovereignty". This is obviously the viewpoint of EU policy makers, and increasingly the governments of the EU Member States, though Ambassador Bolton surely raises some crucial points about democracy in relation to this. Just when did the British people, or the French, or the Spanish, give their temporary governments the right to permanently share and reduce the power of their fellow compatriots? The Treaty of Lisbon is a clear move towards a new federal structure whereby a division of powers has emerged. The Treaty strongly states that which the EU may do; that which the EU and Member States may do (though Member States take second priority); and then the rest of the powers (Articles 2, 3 and 4 of TFEU). This is thus entrenching multilateralism and federalism into the political structure of Europe, as power becomes centralized away from Member States. It is curious to look at why the governments of the UK and France in particular are so keen on supporting the EU treaty. The multilaterals can argue that the Treaty of Lisbon strengthens the UN system, and therefore strengthens the position of the United Kingdom and France with their positions as permanent members of the UN Security Council. By making the UN global system stronger, the Treaty of Lisbon is thus supporting the strength of the UK and France in that system. Yet that argument is severely lacking in two ways: firstly, the British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, recently spoke of expanding the size of the UN Security Council to include the new world powers, such as India and Brazil, which would therefore dilute the power of
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the Security Council's permanent members; and secondly, the Treaty of Lisbon puts into place the beginnings of the process that will most likely see the removal of both the British and French places at the UN Security Council, and replacement of their seats by the EU High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Articles 26, 27 and 34 of the Common Foreign and Security Policy). The Treaty of Lisbon is thus a component of a wider international vision that is driven by the liberal agendas that created the United Nations, and the League of Nations before it. There are however concerns with this; for a Union that explicitly refers to itself as democratic needs to act in a more democratic fashion, and the starting point would be the holding of referendums so the people of Europe could have a say on the new Treaty, which places large limits on the power of their respective nation-states. The ability of the people to govern themselves is being reduced, and this process needs more legitimacy. Glen Ruffle Research Officer at Global Vision; MSc in Global Politics from the University of Southampton. References and Endnotes: 1.The Treaty of Lisbon is composed of two smaller Treaties: The Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU). Together they form the Treaty of Lisbon. 2. The Treaty of Lisbon text referred to here is the 'Consolidated Texts of the EU Treaties as Amended by the Treaty of Lisbon', January 2008, CM7310. Published by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and The Stationery Office. 3. Ambassador John Bolton was responding to a question during a speech at an event hosted by Global Vision, 8th January 2008, at the Institute of Civil Engineers, London. MP3 audio file of meeting available at: http://www.global-vision.net/Events1451.htm 4. Lord Watson of Richmond, 26th November 2001, Column 75, Volume 629, part number 52, of Hansard, the official record of the House of Commons debates. 5. Andrew Grice (2008) Transformed UN proposed to create 'new world order', 21st January 2008, at: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/transformed-unproposed-to-create-new-world-order-771416.html
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Positively Russian: A positive look at Putin's Russia By Glen Ruffle
SINCE THE LOW POINT of 1998, Russia's economy has only got stronger. Despite being constantly criticised in the West, Putin must be doing something right! Putin's Russia is now in a strong position to win back lost international influence and this scares the West. It is popular for politicians in the West to spend their time criticising Vladimir Putin and his new Russia. Yet under Putin, Russia has turned from a broken and chaotic state into a strong and assertive international actor. After 1991, Russia went from global superpower, to total ruin, and is now back to the status of respected international power. The story of how Russia was reborn explains a lot about the current cold attitude displayed by the Russian government to the Western powers. After the collapse of Communism, Russia emerged onto the world stage with a leader being influenced heavily by foreign advice. Yeltsin was the hero of the moment, and the US, IMF, Western powers and Europe welcomed him onto the world stage, offering money and advice on how to turn the Russian economy into a money-making machine. However, politics quickly took over and the advice offered and given began to be directed towards the interests of the major world powers. Dimitri Simes, a top Washington policy advisor, recalled that the Clinton administration realised Russia was vulnerable, saw that Yeltsin was easily manipulated, and deliberately chose to exploit this situation for the benefit of the USA. In his 1999 study on the politics of IMF money lending, Strom Thacker also showed that IMF money was poured into Russia, despite the West knowing full well about the corruption inside Russia. The US government, along with the Western powers, chose to exploit Russia at this time. The result of this poor advice and massive corruption was the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The massive number of privatisations that occurred, without the institutional checks and balances of a highly developed financial economy, created incentives for the private sector to 'buy' (bribe) influential Russian policy makers, rather than participate in fair market purchasing.
Obviously, the Russian's have to take some blame, as many officials lied about what they were doing with the funds supplied to them, and continued to lie about the implementation of policies, thus creating a false impression that helped to confuse the policy advisors, but the facts remain that the Western governments still chose to exploit the situation and had more than enough intelligence gathering ability to know whether Russia was telling the truth. The result of Russian faith in Western advice was that by 1997, 70% of Russian finance was in the hands of just 120 firms. The following year, the economic system collapsed. Against this background, one can map the rise of Vladimir Putin. As the economy recovered, so Putin moved closer towards power. The people of Russia now equated democracy with Yeltsin and corruption. Therefore, anything that promised democracy, in their minds, promised anarchy, unemployment and weakness. Putin, the ex-KGB officer, had learned some harsh lessons about trusting the West, and in particular, the old enemy of the US government. When he became President, he did things very much in his own way, acting for Russia's strategic interests, and not for the interests of foreign companies. The collaboration between Gazprom the energy giant and the Russian government is just one example of realist politics and economics ensuring Russian firms become global actors. Putin has overseen massive economic growth, largely based on oil sales, but this has still allowed Russian living standards to soar. Ten years after the low point of 1998, Russia is a new country. The International Monetary Funds (IMF) World Economic Outlook offers some fascinating insights. With average year on year growth rates of 7.75% of GDP, and consistent current account surpluses (8.8% in 2005, 3.1% for 2008), the Russian economy is powering ahead and shows considerable strength. Unlike major Western economies, such as Britain, France, and the US, who have consistent current account deficits, Russia is able to store up wealth and
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High prices for commodities mean that many people are being left behind and unable to purchase consumer products, helping to divide society into those who can afford, and those who cannot.
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build resources to draw upon for the future. Russia has paid off her foreign debt, and now stores vastly increasing amounts of credit. The major downside to this has been extremely high inflation, ranging from 8% a year to 12% a year, but the government is attempting to get a grip on this issue. Russia is also improving its business conditions and investment has been increasing, along with productivity. Real disposable incomes have matched the inflation, rising at 10% a year. The strength of the Russian position shows through the predicted growth rates: at a time when global economies are fearing a recession following the US sub-prime mortgage troubles, the Russian economy is only likely to be slowed down to 7% annual growth; around 5% more growth than most Western economies can expect. And lastly, under Putin, unemployment in Russia has halved. Whilst it is valid to criticise the Russian government for its human rights abuses and corruption, the fact remains that the Russian government has created a prospering society, and although problems do remain, the fact that Russia is doing so well is almost a miracle, considering the complex financial centres of London and New York took hundreds of years to evolve, while Russia has achieved so much in just twenty years. Despite the problems, the fact remains that massive economic growth does not just happen without some good and wise governance. However, there are areas that Putin needs to deal with and be aware of. Inflation is one of the most important. High prices for commodities mean that many people are being left behind and unable to purchase consumer products, helping to divide society into those who can afford, and those who cannot. In this respect, Russia is continuing its historical traditions and the paths followed by other Eastern European countries in creating a society where the majority remains quite poor, whilst super-rich elite emerge. With the large rate of inflation, the government also needs to watch for how this will undermine the Russian currency internationally, and also erode the savings of the vast majority of ordinary Russians. While Putin is exceptionally popular as a leader, if people start to really become priced out of the market, discontent will grow and nostalgia for the Communist party and social unrest could destabilise the country. One of the reasons for the increase in inflation is that international
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money has flowed into Russia, and this money has become easily accessible. The danger with this is that people borrow too much and get themselves into debt. There are already signs that this is happening: a major driver in the economic growth has been consumer spending, and is fuelled somewhat by the easy access to credit. The government of Russia must keep a watch on this: if Russians are taking on too much debt, and if financial regulations are not tightened (the IMF noted that these needed to be improved), then investors may panic at the levels of debt which emerge and withdraw the credit and call in loans, bringing about a recession or new economic crisis. At the moment, high interest rates should deter people taking on too much debt, but if interest rates fall, then this could expose Russia to the economic problems being experienced in the US and UK, where credit was offered to people who simply could not pay it back. One of the major causes of Russian growth is oil and gas prices. Because of global demand rising so much, Russia has been able to expand its pipelines and raise a vast amount of money. This inflow of revenues will allow Russia to continue spending on domestic improvements and revamping its abilities on the international scene. One consequence of all this wealth is that the states around Russia, once part of the USSR, have been tied closer via economic links to the Russian economy. The Russian economy is therefore, much to the pleasure of the Kremlin, becoming the motor of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). If Russia slowed, growth in all of these states would equally be hit. This gives Moscow much more clout in its diplomatic relations with the governments of states like Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Thus in the battle for influence with the US in this region, Russia is holding some powerful cards. Those states closer to Europe, such as Ukraine, Georgia and Armenia, have been on the whole more troublesome to Putin's desire for influence in Russia's 'sphere of influence'. Yet these states have run consistent negative current account deficits (Ukraine was 6.2% in 2007, Georgia a massive 15.2% in the same year), weakening their positions. This will be an interesting area to watch. Putin does not want these states to move into the European Union, or NATO, and for US influence in this area to grow. Equally, the EU and US would like to control the amount of influence that Moscow has over these nations and in so doing weaken the power of Russia. At the moment, we can expect stability in this region: the EU and
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, President of the Russian Federation President of the Russia Federation, speaking in the Security Council. UN Photo/Mark Garten
US will pay for the budget deficits in order to help these states against Russia; but long term, with US power weakening, Europe being dependent on Russian gas and oil, and increasing Russian power, we can perhaps expect to see Moscow move back into holding a greater control over these areas. Yet looking long term is wrought with problems. Many predictions of Russian growth are based on continued oil revenues at a time when major moves are under way to diversify away from oil. What one can say with relative security though is that for the next fifty years, oil will continue to be a major fuel subject to high demand, and so Russia will continue to attract long term investment due to the high revenues coming from the oil price. The IMF comments that government spending in Russia does need to be kept in line with the money being earned from fuel sales. The social needs of Russia are still huge, but any massive government outlay on improvements that vastly exceeded incomes from oil sales would overheat the economy and could lead to a large market correction in the near future. Government spending would be liable to push up inflation again at a time when it needs controlling, and this could hit the poorest people quite hard. The biggest long-term concern for Russia must be the demographic collapse that has occurred since the end of the Soviet Union. Whilst nationalist-based programmes have encouraged people to procreate, there is still going to be a shrinking of the population that will undermine the economy. Russia needs all the financial reserves it can get to finance the social adjustments that a shrinking population will bring. It is well on the way to gaining that solid base. Glen Ruffle Researcher for Global Vision, MScthe University of Southampton. Bibliography BBC (2008) Resurgent Russia, 28th February 2008, BBC
News, at:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/europe/2007/resurgent_russ ia/default.stm Dimitri Simes (2007) Losing Russia, in Foreign Affairs, November/December 2007. Jonathan Dimbleby (2008) Seduced by a smile, The Sunday Times News Review, pages 1 and 2, February 24th 2008. Economist (2006) Hardball, Page 86, The Economist, September 16th 2006. Volume 380, Number 8495. Edward Lucas (2008) The New Cold War, Bloomsbury, London. Edward Lucas (2008) The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West, excerpts published in The Daily Mail, Saturday 19th January 2008, pages 38-39. Edward Lucas (2007) Sex for the motherland, July 29th, 2007, The Daily Mail, at: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_art icle_id=471324&in_page_id=1770 IMF (2007) World Economic Outlook, Globalisation and Inequality, October 2007: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/02/pdf/c2.pdf Massimo Florio (2002) Economists, Privatisation in Russia and the Waning of the 'Washington Consensus', in Review of International Political Economy, 9:2 Summer 2002, page 403. Routledge. Neil Robinson (2002) Russia: A State of Uncertainty, Routledge, London. Page 119. Paul Reynolds (2007) Cool not cold - Russia's new foreign policy, 28th June 2007, BBC News, at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/6236952.stm Strom Thacker (1999) The High Politics of IMF Lending, in World Politics, Volume 52, Number 1, October 1999, pp 38-75. William Tompson (2001), cited in Stephen White, Alex Pravda and Zvi Gitelman (2001) Developments in Russian Politics 5.
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After the NIE - What to Demand from Tehran? By Daniil Gorbatenko
THE RELEASE OF the National Intelligence Estimate (the NIE) on Iran by the US intelligence community last autumn the main point of which being that Iran has with a high degree of probability suspended its military nuclear program in 2003 has further diminished the already weak resolve of the international community to exert additional pressure on Tehran. In such circumstances the question about what the international community should demand from Tehran may seem inadequate to many. Why should we demand anything at all? - They may ask - meaning that from now on the suspicions of Iran should be lifted and Iran should be allowed to enjoy its "inalienable rights" to conduct unlimited enrichment on its soil.
robust industrial-level enrichment program have been as much unconvincing as the anti-Israeli rhetoric of its president, and the alleged support by Iran of Hezbollah and Hamas widely regarded as terrorist organizations has been alarming.(5)
And yet this is simply not the case. The fact that Iran allegedly suspended its military program in 2003 most probably for fear of US military action (1) does not mean that it is not going to put it back on track it in the future. Moreover, according to the majority of commentators what Iran really needs for going nuclear is a sufficient amount of weapons-grade fissile material (2) (highly-enriched uranium or HEU) which is relatively easy to produce if Iranian uraniumenrichment activities are not limited.(3)
In light of the above, it seems that as of today Iran cannot be allowed to conduct an unlimited nuclear program on its soil if the international community does not want to face a nuclear-armed Iran. Not only is the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by Iran a grim scenario per se, but it may well prove to be the point of no return for the existing non-proliferation regime as it may trigger a nuclear-arms race in the volatile Middle-East region and beyond. There is also a high degree of likelihood that before Iran goes nuclear it will be attacked by the US and (or) Israel, which will probably also have gloomy implications for the region as well as for the global energy security. The history of the Israeli air strikes against the Iraqi reactor in Osirak in 1981 and an unknown Syrian site last year (8) make such a scenario look even more likely to unfold.
At the same time, Iran has a highly compromising track record of cheating and defying the international community on its nuclear activities. Iran has ignored four successive virtually unanimously adopted binding UN Security Council resolutions and has up to very recently exhibited poor level of cooperation with the IAEA on resolving the outstanding issues related to its past undeclared nuclear activities. These activities included Iranian contacts with the infamous A.Q. Khan network, operations with P-2 centrifuges, the so called "green salt project" and experiments with plutonium, to name only few. (4) Iranian economic justifications for the need to have a
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Finally, given the proven inaccuracy of the US intelligence on Iraq and allegations of many commentators that it is at least as bad on Iran (6) it does not seem viable to blindly rely on the NIE findings though even taken as they are, they do not present a rosy picture. It should be noted that such findings can not be a clue to the Iranian attitude to potential acquisition of a nuclear weapon which is confirmed by the authors of the NIE.(7)
Flawed "zero-enrichment option" and the Evans's "new redline" proposal Then what should the international community demand from Iran in this respect? So far the core demand of the international community was suspension of enrichment. This "zero-enrichment"
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option in the words of Gareth Evans (9) has been enshrined in several consecutive UN Security Council resolutions. For instance, UNSC Resolution 1737 demands that Iran suspend "all enrichment related and reprocessing activities, including research and development to be verified by IAEA". (10) However, this zero-enrichment demand seems unrealistic. First of all, it does not enjoy sufficient international legitimacy. None of the IAEA reports on Iran stipulates that Iran actually conducted a military program in violation of Article II of the NPT. Instead, they basically stipulate that IAEA is still unable to confirm the truly peaceful nature of the Iranian nuclear program. (11) The allegations contained in the NIE that Iran has abandoned its military program in 2003 only strengthen the Iran's position and give appeal to Iran's rhetoric about its "inalienable rights", nuclear apartheid waged against Iran and the like. Another reason why Iran will not agree to fulfill the zeroenrichment demand is that there is no formal criteria it could satisfy in order to be allowed to restart enrichment-related activities on its soil and no fixed term for the suspension of such activities. Nor is it easy to elaborate such criteria and term for their satisfaction. Is it possible for the IAEA inspectors to determine, for example, that Iran has abandoned its alleged intention to pursue a military program and eventually acquire the bomb? The answer is probably no. Taking into account the apparent lack of political will on the part of the international community, in particular Russia and China, to put meaningful sticks (i.e. really painful UNSC economic sanctions) on the table to enforce the said zero-enrichment demand on Tehran the parties to the dispute seem to have reached a stalemate. In these circumstances even if the sextet (the permanent five members of the UNSC plus Germany) agrees on a set of additional symbolic sanctions as a result of the negotiations currently underway (12), the added value of such sanctions will probably be even less than it was with the relatively toothless sanctions currently in place. That said it seems that the flawed core demand from Iran should be changed without allowing Iran to conduct unlimited enrichment. In this respect the president of the International Crisis Group, Gareth Evans and the International Crisis Group in its 2005 report (13) have been consistently advocating his proposal of the so-called "new redline" for Iran. (14) Apart from the new
redline concept, his proposal contains a detailed phased timeline for the handling of the Iranian nuclear program. The "new redline" concept essentially means that according to Gareth Evans the international community should shift the existing redline for Tehran to a demand not to conduct a military program/develop nuclear weapons.(15) Evans maintains that if Iran is allowed to eventually conduct unlimited enrichment under a robust monitoring regime by IAEA it will be possible to stop the military dimension of the nuclear program if it goes far enough.(16) However, the fact that the cheating by Iran was discovered not by the IAEA inspectors working under the safeguards regime but by the Iranian dissidents (17) makes he ability of IAEA to promptly discover new military conversion by Iran doubtful. The North Korean experience whereby DPRK had secretly developed a military program with IAEA inspectors on the ground and then expelled them in an appropriate time, withdrew from the NPT and probably conducted a nuclear test (18) adds to this concern. The aforementioned phased timeline contained in the International Crisis Group report and Evans's proposal is also not without flaws. The first phase actually provides for a temporary (for 2-3 years) suspension of all enrichment-related activities by Iran. In course of the second phase (3-4 years) Iran would only be allowed to conduct enrichment at R&D level.(19) These requirements, however, are not conceptually different from the zero-enrichment option observed above and criticized by Evans himself. Limited industrial enrichment option may be the answer There is, however, another option which may serve to avoid the shortcomings of both the zero-enrichment option and the Evans's proposal. The essence of this option is that the international community should demand that Iran limit the conduct of its enrichment program to a specific amount of P-1 centrifuges and to the physical location of Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (Natanz FEP). The main question is how to determine such amount. Conceding that it is the job of nuclear scientists and IAEA officials to determine the exact figure, it is nevertheless possible to establish the principles and reference points for its determination.
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Secretary-General Ban Kimoon (right) meets with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. UN Photo/Mark Garten
To start with, such amount should be insufficient for Iran to produce enough HEU for a nuclear bomb in a period of time too short for the international community to identify the breakout and adequately respond to prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb, since in case Iran acquires a nuclear deterrent earlier than that it will be very difficult to disarm it, bearing in mind the experience with DPRK. At the same time, the maximum amount of P-1 centrifuges should allow Iran to produce the amount of LEU (lowenriched uranium) as sufficient as possible to satisfy the Iranian current reasonable needs for nuclear energy, which should be determined on a joint basis by Iran and IAEA (and probably IEA). Of course, neither of the above principles is easy to apply and they may well seem mutually exclusive at first sight. In order to determine the maximum amount in accordance with the first principle we should determine the minimum period sufficient for the international community to identify and adequately respond to potential Iranian breakout. So far Iran has allegedly set up approximately 3000 P-1 centrifuges in Natanz (20) and is planning to increase this amount up to 54000. (21) Though at present it is impossible to say exactly how many centrifuges Iran needs to produce enough HEU for a bomb for a given period of time some conclusions may be drawn from the fact that the majority of analysts agree that with 3000 P-1 centrifuges Iran may in principle produce enough HEU for one bomb within approximately a year (22). In contrast, with 54000 centrifuges in place Iran will probably be able to produce the amount of HEU needed for a bomb in a few weeks in case of a breakout scenario (23) (the foregoing further referred to as the "HEU Breakout Scenario"). Another breakout scenario envisaged by the analysts is Iran producing a large stockpile of LEU and then rapidly converting it into HEU for a bomb (the "LEU Breakout Scenario") (24). In each of the said breakout scenarios the minimum time frame needed for the international community's response is determined by the ability of the IAEA and (or) any national intelligence to stop the breakout and of the US and (or)
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Israel to bomb the Iranian nuclear sites, particularly Natanz. If we look at 10 air strikes conducted by the US and Israel between the 1981 bombing of the Osiraq reactor and 2006 War with Hezbollah, it is possible to say with a high degree of probability that none of them took more than 2-3 months to launch following the triggering event (or principle decision). The majority of the strikes were launched within a month following the triggering event. Therefore, if history is any guide, it is possible to assume that 3 months can be regarded as a maximum time period needed for the US and (or Israel) to bomb the Iranian nuclear facilities in case of a breakout. Thus, if Iran may produce the amount of HEU necessary for 1 bomb per year with 3000 centrifuges, within the range between 5000 and 10000 P-1 centrifuges Iran will probably be unable to produce a sufficient amount of HEU sooner than within 3 months in case of the HEU Breakout Scenario. Skeptics may contend at this point that the proposed approach will not serve to prevent the LEU Breakout Scenario. Acknowledging the risk, it is important to note that the suggested approach will not be confined to limited amount of P-1 centrifuges only. For example, Iran may be required to submit the produced (but not put into the reactor) LEU to special sites controlled by IAEA. Iran may also subjected to a robust monitoring regime beyond the requirements of the Additional Protocol (signed but not ratified by Iran) if Iran wants to enrich on its soil. As far as the Iran's current energy needs are concerned, Iran's official nuclear energy plans envisage installing 60007000 megawatt capacity over the following decade. (25) However, so far Iran has only two industrial-level nuclear reactors under construction (the 1000 MW light-water reactor in Bushehr and the 40 MW heavy-water reactor in Arak) (26). None of them will actually require nuclear fuel in the foreseeable future since under the terms of the construction of the Bushehr reactor all the
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fuel will be supplied by Russia (27) and the Arak reactor does not require LEU for fuel (28). Moreover, at present Iran reportedly possesses components for only 5000 additional P-1 centrifuges (29). Therefore, the figure of 5000-10000 P-1 centrifuges as a reference point for determining the maximum amount of P-1 centrifuges permitted to be assembled by Iran in Natanz FEP does not appear incompatible with the current Iranian nuclear energy needs.
approach by the international community would mean that the right of Iran to uranium enrichment on its soil is acknowledged which will lower the appeal of Iranian rhetoric at home and abroad and will make it potentially more costly for Iran to reject the proposal out of hand than in the case with zero-enrichment demand.
In light of the above, it seems that it is in principle possible to determine the amount of P-1 centrifuges Iran may be allowed to assemble for limited industrial enrichment of uranium in Natanz FEP. It can be argued here that it will be a highly complex task to monitor the compliance with this amount. However, if Iran is subjected to a robust monitoring regime as International Crisis Group advocates in his report (30) it will probably be easier to identify a sharp transgression over this amount then a potential military dimension of the nuclear program since the latter does not require industrial scope for its conduct and can be conducted in secrecy as history has already shown.
All that said it is important to acknowledge that the proposal of handling the Iranian nuclear impasse outlined in this essay is not a panacea and requires greater elaboration and perhaps technical (and scientific) feasibility study. Nevertheless, it is becoming increasingly evident that the current approach of the international community to settling the Iranian issue based on the zero-enrichment option is critically flawed in its perhaps most important element - the core demand from Tehran. Thus, the approach suggested in this article may be an important step forward in figuring out the way out of the current stalemate.
Skeptics might also claim that the method of determination of the maximum amount of P-1 centrifuges rests on a flawed premise of the need to allow for a time period for the US and or Israel to respond by air strikes if Iran breaks out. However, as the North Korean experience demonstrates, if Iran indeed breaks out and starts producing HEU nothing short of military option or a credible threat thereof may have real potential curb such breakout unless all the major consumers of Iranian commodities sacrifice cease importing oil and gas from Iran. Another critique may focus on the absence of the concrete time frame for the suggested limitation of the number of Iranian centrifuges. However, such time frame is pretty difficult to establish. The bitter truth is that the current non-proliferation regime does grant such states as Iran access to fissile material. Therefore unless the rules of the game change as a result of the NPT Review Conference scheduled for 2010 (31) or the dispute over the Iranian nuclear program is otherwise settled the limitation proposed in this article should remain in force. Finally, it may be argued that the limited industrial enrichment option advocated in this article is not viable since Iran will not probably reject it out of hand. This may indeed be the case but it is not an inevitable scenario. In fact, the endorsement of this
Conclusion
Daniil Gorbatenko Moscow Higher School of Economic, Law Department Notes: 1. Heritage Foundation Backgrounder: The Iran National Intelligence Estimate: A Comprehensive Guide to What is Wrong with the NIE. Available at: http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/upload/bg_2098. pdf 2. Perkovich G. Assessing the NIE. Available at: http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&i d=19747&prog=zgp&proj=zme,znpp 3. Ibid. 4.Iran's Civilian Nuclear Program May Link to Military, UN Says. NY Times. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/01/international/middleeast/3 1cndiran.html?_r=1&oref=slogin 5. Council on Foreign Relations. State Sponsors: Iran. Available at: http://www.cfr.org/publication/9362/ 6. Guardian. US Iran intelligence 'is incorrect'. Available at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,,2019235,00.html#articl e_continue 7. National Intelligence Estimate: Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities. See Section A of Key Judgments. Available at: http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf
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The bitter truth is that the current non-proliferation regime does grant such states as Iran access to fissile material. Therefore unless the rules of the game change as a result of the NPT Review Conference scheduled for 2010 (31) or the dispute over the Iranian nuclear program is otherwise settled the limitation proposed in this article should remain in force.
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8. BBC News. Israel's Syria 'raid' remains a mystery. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6991718.stm 9. Evans G. (). The Iran Nuclear Problem: The Way Forward. International Crisis Group Presentation. Available at: http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5187&l=3 10. UN Security Council Resolution 1737. Available at: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Focus/IaeaIran/unsc_res17372006.pdf 11. IAEA Board of Governors Report 15 November 2007. Available at: http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2007/gov20 07-58.pdf 12. BBC News. Powers agree on UN sanctions. Available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7208229.stm 13. International Crisis Group (2005). Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse? International Crisis Group MiddleEast Report No. 51. Available at: http://www.crisisgroup.org/library/documents/middle_east___no rth_africa/iraq_iran_gulf/51_iran_is_there_a_way_out_of_the_ nuclear_impasse.pdf 14. Evans G. (2007) The Right Nuclear Red Line. Washington Post. Available at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2007/12/04/AR2007120401670.html 15, 16 Ibid. 17. Reuters. Timeline of Iran's Nuclear Program. Available at:http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL22772232008 0122 18. Reuters. Chronology-Timeline of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis. Available at: http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUKSP3008020061211? sp=true 19. International Crisis Group. Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse. 20. 3000 Uranium Centrifuges Fully Working, Iran Says. USA Today. Available at: http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/200711-07-iran-nuclear_N.htm 21. Iran Cites Plans for Use of 54000 Centrifuges in Nuclear Program. Global Security News Library. Available at: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iran/2006/iran-
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060412-voa05.htm 22. NPEC Analysis. Iran: Breaking Out Without Quite Breaking The Rules? Available at: http://www.npecweb.org/Studies/Study030515%20Iran%20Breaking%20Out%2 0Without%20Quite%20Breaking%20the%20Rules.pdf 23. Ibid. 24. IISS Report. Iran's strategic weapons programs - a net assessment. Available at: http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-inthe-press/press-coverage-2005/september-2005/iransstrategic-weapons-programs 25. Iran's Nuclear Fuel Cycle Facilities: A Pattern of Peaceful Intent? Available at: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/report/2005/iran-fuelcycle-brief_dos_2005.pdf 26. Sahimi M. (2004). Iran's Nuclear Energy Program. Part IV: Economic Analysis of the Program. Available at: http://www.payvand.com/news/04/dec/1056.html 27. Bushehr. Iran's Nuclear Reactor. Global Security Materials. Available at:http ://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/ira28. Iran's IR-40 Reactor - Preliminary Assessment. Available at:http://www.iranwatch.org/privateviews/First%20Watch/perspex -fwi-ir40reactor-1203.htm 29. Albright D., Hinderstein C. The Clock Is Ticking, But How Fast? ISIS Publications. Available at: http://www.isisonline.org/publications/iran/clockticking.pdf 30. International Crisis Group. Iran: Is There a Way Out of the Nuclear Impasse. 31. Laying the Groundwork for the 2010 NPT Review Conference. IAEA Staff Report. Available at: http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/News/2007/nptgroundwork201 0.html
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaleeconomy
The role of Chinese sovereign funds in world financial markets By Javier Guerra
ON THE 15TH OF JANUARY 2008, the governments of Singapore, Kuwait and South Korea invested more than 21 billion dollars in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, two of the banks that were most affected by the "Subprime" mortgage crisis. In the following weeks, the Singapore and Chinese governments invested more capital in banks such as UBS and Morgan Stanley. These investments were made using sovereign funds, which are investment funds managed by governments. In the last few years, these funds have played a fundamental role in the world financial markets, having brought 69 billion dollars in total to the recapitalisation of some of the largest global investment banks. Countries that manage these funds are countries that have benefited from high petrol prices (like the United Arab Emirates) or the increase in exportations from Asian countries (like in China's case.) The reason for creating funds of this type is the professionalisation of investments and an attempt to obtain better profitability from their investments, in place of investing in activities with very low profitability, as they can be the bonus for the American Treasury. However, these investments generate a series of worries in the countries that receive these massive entries of capital, the main problem being the reactions that these provoke on the level of protection and nationalism. For the directors of these businesses that are being invested in, this can be a blessing due to the long time that they have been looking for these investments, fleeing from the short-termness of some investors. The main sovereign funds of Asia and the Persian Gulf are: China Investment Corporation (China) Size: $200 billion Citic (China)
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Size: $130 billion (in December 2006) Biggest investments: $1 billion in Bear Stearns investment bank China Development Bank (China) Size: $300 billion (in December 2006) Biggest investment: 3.1% of Barclays bank for $3.2 billion Temasek (Singapore) Size: $110 billion. Biggest investments: $4 billion in Barclays and $8.5 billion in Standard Chartered GIC (Singapore) Size: Between $100 and $300 billion. Biggest investments: $9 billion in UBS. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Size: $875 billion Biggest investments: Citigroup $7.5 billion Dubai International Capital Size: $9 billion Biggest investments: Strong participation in HSBC Istithmar (UAE) Size: $8 billion (approx.) Biggest investments: $1 billion in Standard Chartered The case of China It is thought that in 1996 China had already amassed its first 100 billion dollars in capital (the majority in US dollars). By 2001 this figure had become 200 billion and since then, this has multiplied by six, helped by the rise in exportations, making it the country with most foreign money reserves in the world. At the end of 2007, China accumulated around $1.53 trillion in reserves in foreign currency, mostly American Treasury bonds and similar capitals, with a savings rate of around 50%, additional reserves are adding to themselves with increasing speed.
Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaleeconomy
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the CIC is trusting well-esteemed international investment assessors, that will take part in a competitive selection process for the lucrative business of advising China on its investments.
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The majority of China's investments up to now have been in American State bonds, considered as a secure investment as the American government guarantees them, and return 4-5% interest. This has not covered the 5-6% fall of the American dollar against the Yuan, hence the poor investment in terms of profitability. To increase the profitability of these reserves, mitigate the international pressure on China to appreciate its currency and diversify risks (above all the risk of having a large part of its reserves in only one currency, the US dollar), China has officially started to put together its capitals using a sovereign fund called China Investment Corporation (CIC), formed on the 29th of September 2007. CIC has $200 billion at its disposal, even though it is believed it will be given almost 1 trillion USD to manage. For the formation of the CIC, international legal and financial assessors were contracted as well as a few more prestigious world strategic consultants. Based on the form of other sovereign funds, the Chinese fund has some of its own particular characteristics that reflect the political structure of China and its recent history of financial reform. The fund belongs 100% to the Chinese government and its cabinet of directors is formed by high leaders of public Chinese financial institutions, hence its close relations with the Chinese way of acting, with a strong political implication. This is something that is not as evident in other funds such as that of Singapore. For the moment, the CIC is focused on constructing its own team of investment assessors. Meanwhile the CIC is trusting well-esteemed international investment assessors, that will take part in a competitive selection process for the lucrative business of advising China on its investments. The 200 billion dollars that the CIC has is divided into three different segments. The first, with 67 billion dollars, the Chinese government acquired at book value (not the value quoted on the stock exchange). Its participation in the public banks at stock market value (ICBC, Bank of China and China Construction Bank), this investment will mean that this segment of 67 billion dollars is already worth substantially more. The second segment of the fund, also 67 billion dollars, will be dedicated to recapitalising the other two main Chinese banks, the China Development Bank (CDB) and the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC). They are aiming to take the CDB public but the timeframe has not yet been defined. The other third (another 67 billion dollars) of the CIC will
be invested abroad. These foreign investments even started before the CIC was officially created, and in July it acquired just under 10% of the Blackstone investment fund (one of the biggest in the world), and that was floated last summer for 3 billion dollars, an investment which for the time being has made a loss of 1 billion dollars. Another investment has been the purchase of 9.9% of the Morgan Stanley investment bank for around 5 billion dollars. The operation amounts to a relief for the bank, as it was hit by the credit crisis especially in the last quarter. Between September and December, it lost 3.588 billion dollars and its takings fell 57% in the 2007 financial year. Despite the crisis, Morgan Stanley is one of the large American banks in Wall Street, and has "a long agreement with China and has made its position as leader clear in this region," explained its president and delegate advisor, John J. Mack. Another of the investments that stand out has been that of 4 billion dollars in the JC Flowers & Co investment fund. It should be highlighted that the CIC will limit itself to a passive role, given that it will not have any representation on the board of Morgan Stanley or Blackstone; therefore its participation is without the right to vote. Japan is another of the countries where the CIC is investing in an active way, with the intention of investing around 10 billion dollars in businesses mainly in the energy sector, particularly oil and gas companies, particularly Inpex. This is a strategic investment for China, given that it is hoped that this Japanese company to become one of the Japanese national leaders, therefore it will benefit from Japan's activity in the search for natural resources in the sea to the east of China. This is something that has caused diplomatic conflict between China and Japan, getting round to work out how to define the sea frontier, given the potential natural resources that they could find, something that the coming visit of Hu Jintao to Japan at the end of this year could resolve. However, Japan is saying that the only intention of the Chinese president is to smooth the way for investments from the CIC in Japan and China's hep in the creation of a Japanese sovereign fund, a project that has officially already begun. On a domestic level, one of the main investments in nonfinancial institutions has been the purchase of 1% of China Rail
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globaleeconomy
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The growing importance of sovereign funds was a subject of discussions at the last G7 summit, where they urged said funds to follow guidelines in areas such as institutional structure, risk control or transparency
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Corporation, a company controlled by the Chinese government, and whose flotation on the stock exchange was extremely successful. The vice minister of finances, Li Yong, revealed that the investment strategy of the CIC will be a gradual one and with precaution, and that they will not invest in airlines, telecommunications companies or foreign oil companies (something that did not succeed with Inpex.) Due to the great power and political influence of sovereign funds, in particular of the CIC, the possibility exists that now both the United States and the EU are considering putting up barriers to foreign investment controlled by foreign countries, using the excuse of questioning the purely economical interest of these investments, but they also bring with them the problem of taking technological knowledge or political influence from the control of the companies subject to the purchase. This is something that from my point of view is hypocritical given that countries within the EU are allowing the entry of private companies controlled mainly by governments, for example the case of the electrical companies in Spain with the possible takeover bid by EDF (controlled mainly by the French government) against Iberdrola. The growing importance of sovereign funds was a subject of discussions at the last G7 summit, where they urged said funds to follow guidelines in areas such as institutional structure, risk control or transparency, while the countries receiving these investments would apply some principles of non-discrimination and transparency. Given the concerns of Western democracies (USA, Switzerland and Germany have declared themselves in agreement) it is not very likely that the CIC will start investing in a way considered hostile in a business associate country like the USA and Germany. This is why two of the CIC's largest investments up until now (JC Flower and Blackstone) have been investment funds as these will invest its money without the country receiving the investment having the concern of China being the direct investor.
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What is not clear so far is if the CIC will help businesses controlled by the Chinese government in its investments outside of China as co-investors, something that the CIC has not confirmed nor denied until now. Being such could mean certain political conflicts (remember the example of the failed takeover bid by the American oil company Unical in 2006 or the recent failed purchase of the 3M company by Huawei with the help of the Bain Capital investment fund.) It is thought that in a reasonable amount of time the CIC will clarify its investment strategies, its relationship with the government, among other aspects in order to eliminate fears that could exist in the markets and give the fund the necessary transparency to freely invest in international markets. In short, we find ourselves facing a new actor in the international finance panorama, which comes to show the growing influence of China in the global political and financial panorama. Javier Guerra Investment Executive for the investment fund GSF Capital.
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalcculture
Proposals for peaceful coexistence To the critique of Huntington’s thesis By Eva DĂez
THE AIM OF THIS ARTICLE is to suggest several proposals wherein peaceful coexistence among different cultures, religions and identities is possible and to debate their plausibility. The common underlying assumption is the rejection to the idea that cultural and religious differences lead to inescapable conflict. The proposals are classified according to the area that they tackle: challenge to the concept of democracy, state policies over immigration, cultural dialogue and education, establishment of common principles, and the role of global communications and technology. Immigration integration As to state policies over immigration Hofstede (2001: 420) suggests that policies of integration rather than assimilation are preferable in order to deal with immigrants. Assimilation policies have as a target to equal migrants to natives by losing their distinctiveness. On the other hand, integration policies allow minority citizens, although accepted as full members of the host society, to retain links with their roots and their cultural identity. However, Hofstede (2001: 429) argues that policies aiming at integration have led to better adaptation of migrants than have assimilation policies. States which adopt integration policies have a big cultural values spectrum within the country, which could lead to tolerance and respect among different ideologies and cultures, therefore it should be easier to coexist and cooperate because states are aware of the others' values. Educating for tolerance towards cultures As for cultural education, Hofstede (2001: 427) propounds the acquisition of intercultural competence skills in order to demonstrate how diverse cultures can coexist. On Hofstede's account there are three phases in intercultural
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competence training: awareness, knowledge and skills. Awareness consists in recognizing the different cultural backgrounds. In other words, the idea is to understand cultural values in their particular context thus it is feasible to respect others ideas. Second, through knowledge disparate cultures can get an intellectual grasp on different and similar values of other cultures. Finally, skills are based on awareness and knowledge plus practice therefore it is possible to develop abilities so as to understand other ideologies and cultures. If states evolve culturegeneral intercultural competence they are overcoming the obstacles for cooperating among other states with completely dissimilar beliefs. Concerning cultural dialogue, Kuinan et al (1994) propose the dialogic approach so as to deal with problems of coexistence with immigrants from different cultures and religions. The dialogic approach tries to constitute a third option between the melting pot and multicultural approach whose aim is to fill the gaps and fix the problems derived from the two approaches. This third option implies a dialogue between the different cultural groups within one society. Unlike the melting pot approach the dialogic one 'does not intend to demand conformity to a monolithic framework, but envisions a framework within which all groups engage in a process of dialogue or commitment to dialogue' (Kuinan et al 1994: 402). The third perspective is based on communication as a way to find a common base to different cultural groups and it constitutes an attempt to create a new culture grounded on the best in every culture. Hence, it is a constantly changing culture because it is being permanently constructed through the dialogue between different cultural groups. Kuinan et al based on the dialogic approach attempt to envisage an educational system which will encourage all members of the school 'to
Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalcculture
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Misunderstanding of these codes can provoke hurt and feelings of frustration therefore understanding of each other's codes might make interactions among different communities more peaceful and sympathetic
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define and identify the nuclei of their cultures, and to learn from each other. Once this is accomplished they will continue to participate in the creation of their common culture through dialogue' (Kuinan et al 1994: 404) thereby the school constitutes a cultural center. The educational policy suggested by the authors, places emphasis on knowledge and understanding of different cultural codes. On the authors' accounts (1994), cultural codes are behaviors and cosmologies which are constructed by a specific social group and which are common to all of its members. Misunderstanding of these codes can provoke hurt and feelings of frustration therefore understanding of each other's codes might make interactions among different communities more peaceful and sympathetic. In addition to this, this cultural understanding is a basic condition in order to in initiate a dialogue. Cultural dialogue and religious pluralism Following cultural dialogue it is interesting to mention the nine Christian-Muslim consultations discussed by Papademetriou (2004) in his review of Orthodox and Muslims relations. Through an extensive analysis of the consultations, the author succeeds to demonstrate the existence of different paths for peaceful coexistence and justice between Christians and Muslims which 'may only prevail on a basis of mutual knowledge and understanding of the other' (Papademetriou 2004: 55) and the existing desire between both religions so as to achieve lasting peaceful relations. There are several interesting conclusions extracted from the consultations which are of great concern in order to achieve peaceful coexistence between Muslims and Christians. The first one refers to the importance of dialogue understood as a way to bring out the shared values of different religions so as to facilitate peaceful coexistence and lead to the same expression of political goodwill. Moreover, Papademetriou asserts that the main aim of dialogue is: "to undertake the education of all people in authentic knowledge and understanding in order to attain mutual understanding and tolerance and to seek the spirit of cooperation and friendship among all peoples; and to be able to develop within this framework and to defuse potential problems of common interest that constitute a threat to our shared values and heritage." (2004: 57)
The second conclusion is the necessity of religious pluralism as a source for a healthy society. In contrast to Huntington's thesis, Papademetriou advocates religious pluralism so as to promote religious tolerance, mutual respect, moderation and equal opportunity for all people. Furthermore, the author (2004: 58) warns about the use of religion as an object of manipulation by political interests that create conflicts and encourage hostilities. On the contrary, Huntington (2002) regards religious pluralism as the primary source of conflict especially between Muslims and the West due to their different conceptions of the relationship between politics and religion, their monotheistic nature which approaches the world in dualistic terms, their universalistic character 'claiming to be the one true faith to which all humans can adhere', and their missionary essence 'believing that their adherents have an obligation to convert nonbelievers to that one true faith' (Huntington 2002: 154). Following Huntington, it seems that religions are inevitably fated to constant conflict although he fails to provide practical implications in order to support his theory regarding religions. Nevertheless, Papademetriou asserts (2004: 59) that tolerance and respect are expressions of the spirit of the sacred scriptures of both beliefs and the opposite would constitute religious hatred that leads to violence and a chain reaction towards religious fanaticism. Moreover, he (2004: 60) emphasizes religious pluralism as a path to open new horizons of interreligious dialogue and cooperation towards the shared encounter of problems in contemporary society. The third conclusion refers to the real cause of current struggles. Papademetriou states that current wars are not religious, or conflicts between nations, or cleavages among enemy blocs or civilizations, but 'conflicts that have their source in uncontrolled greed and political interests' (Papademetriou 2004: 58). Fourth, Muslim-Christian dialogues highlight moderation as the underpinning spirit of the sacred scriptures of both religions which recognize the unity of the human race. Moderation allows cooperation and dialogue in the direction of peaceful coexistence. Fifth, education is proclaimed to have a special responsibility because it has a crucial role in shaping the consciousness and value systems of younger generations and because 'through dialogue and education, through praising the richness of each religious heritage and people, a transformation
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalcculture
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The most relevant thing is the adherence to the idea of 'communicative democracy' in order to enable the cohesion of a grand community that make the agreement of universal principles possible
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could be brought about towards mutual respect and understanding' (Papademetriou 2004: 60) thus a new generation must be educated in tolerance instead of fanaticism and misinformation. Moreover, education should be based in respective information about each other, and highlight the common fundamental moral and spiritual values thereby combating misconceptions, prejudices, and the distortion of each other's images. The sixth conclusion refers to the great influence of mass media which are called for a critical approach to the reductionist, stereotypical, essentialist, and sensationalist view of religious communities. The mass media are of great interest so as to educate people from different religions and cultures in mutual respect and tolerance, and to overcome lewd stereotypes. The last conclusion stands for the development of a common code for coexistence whereby there is an official and mutual recognition on all levels and respect for equality in order to maintain lasting peace for all humanity. This code is reified in two practical implications: unconditional constitutional and legal security for full freedom of religious conscience as well as other religious liberties for all citizens of Christian and Muslim states; and legal protection of the equality and internationally guaranteed human rights of the followers of other religions. Communicative Democracy and universal principles As to the challenge to the current concept of democracy, Ipperciel (2004) exposes a concept of 'Communicative Democracy' which is based on public spaces open to public discussions which are central to forming public opinion and will. In his idea of democracy, the pivotal concept is 'communication'. He (2004: 6) points out that communication has become such a central concept in democracy because the latter has always rested on rationality. Moreover, this rational democracy can be realized through communication, for instance through discussions that follow universal rules. According to the author, since reason is a universal attribute of mankind, it is no relevant what race, religion or creed one belongs to. The most relevant thing is the adherence to the idea of 'communicative democracy' in order to enable the cohesion of a grand community that make the agreement of universal principles possible. Furthermore from the Ipperciel (2004: 6) point of view, in the context of communicative democracy, a nation will be a real space that will allow discussions and as a result it will be a sense of commonality. This
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sense of commonality would form the ground on which the resolution of conflicts and the cooperation among countries can have an acceptable chance of success. As regards the establishment of joint principles, it is particularly noteworthy to mention the revision of the Five Principles of peaceful coexistence made by Wen. According to Wen (2004: 365) these Five Principles as the basic norms guiding international relations remain highly relevant because they promote world peace and development. By extrapolation, this peace implies a peaceful coexistence among states belonging to different cultures and religions. The first principle highlighted by Wen is the sovereign equality which means that no country has the right to impose its will on others. It should be noted that the author places the responsibility and decision over the world affairs in countries on an equal footing. The second principle is the respect and maintenance of the diversity of world's civilizations. In respect of this principle an underlying challenge to Huntington's thesis is implicit when Wen states that "instead of harbouring bias against or deliberately belittling other civilizations, we should uphold the great thought of peaceful coexistence and give full respect to the diversity of civilizations" (Wen 2004: 365) This statement is at odds with the Huntington's suggestions to the West in order to balance the growing power of others civilizations. According to Huntington (2002: 311) the USA as the most powerful country from the West should preserve and protect the unique qualities of Western civilization, furthermore he suggests as a: "short-term advantage' of the Western policy to 'exploit differences and conflicts among Confucian and Islamic states' and as a 'long-term accommodation' the West will need 'to maintain the economic and military power to protect its interests in relation to these civilizations" (Huntington 1993a: 91). Neither of them is suitable in order to achieve cooperation among civilizations because the first will lead to more conflicts among cultures and the second implies that civilization interests are under attack. As opposed to the cultural protectionism and conflict preached by Huntington, Wen (2004) proposes full respect to other civilizations, mutual tolerance, and promotion of common development, dialog, and exchange between them so as
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The most relevant thing is the adherence to the idea of 'communicative democracy' in order to enable the cohesion of a grand community that make the agreement of universal principles possible
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to learn from each other in mutual emulation. In regard to the first principle, Wen's defence of state sovereignty contradicts the Huntington's (1993a: 91) recommendation for Western countries which implies the limitation of the military strength of Confucian and Islamic states. The third principle mentioned by Wen (2004: 366) consists in the promotion of common development of the world's economies on the basis of equality and mutual benefit. This includes the responsibility of the developed countries in debts cancellation, expansion of trade, increase in aid programs, and opening up of their markets. Moreover, the author argues that it is essential to facilitate technological transfer in order to share the benefits of scientific advances and to step up economic policy coordination between countries so as to avoid financial risks. Finally, in line with this principle is the protection of the resources and the environment in the interest of sustainable development. The fourth principle entails the peace and security maintenance through dialog and cooperation. Following the author, common security problems such as terrorism, drug trafficking, transboundary crimes, environmental degradation and AIDS should be tackled in accordance with the principles of international law and their solution requires a reinforcement of international cooperation. Finally, the last principle argues for a reinforcement of the role of the UN and other multinational mechanisms such as the WTO so as to promote international and regional cooperation. The role of global communications Regarding global communications, they constitute a good tool in order to make different cultures known by people. Notwithstanding Hofstede (2001: 453) claims that new technologies such as global communications may even increase differences between and within countries, global communications can spread the knowledge of diverse cultures and they can show the links and the common ground of cultures. According to this view, the new function of global communications will be bounding cultures inside of offering separatist and confrontational cultural perspectives. Likewise 'communicative democracy' advocates public discussion, they can offer open spaces for discussing and connecting ideologies in order to find common values. As for the expansion of different values, Tiles and Oberdiek (1995: 61) argue that technology completely transcends the purposes for
which they were designed or the values they express. Likewise, technology can transcend dissimilar cultures and join them so as to promote peaceful coexistence and cooperation. Through the transference of technology diverse cultural values interconnect therefore technology is a space for cultural meeting and agreement. Peaceful coexistence was possible in the past It is particularly important to mention the historically peaceful coexistence between Muslims and the USA stated by Majid. Following Majid (2003), it is possible to find some clues in American history regarding peaceful coexistence between Muslims and the USA. He highlights the role of Muslim Morocco in the acknowledgement of US independence because officially Muslim Morocco was the first country to acknowledge US independence explicitly extending the same maritime and commercial privileges provided to other friendly nations. Moreover, he emphasizes the fact that George Washington after being elected president in 1789 "sent a letter to Mohammed Ben Abdellah, the "Emperor of Morocco", his "Great and magnanimous Friend" thanking him for Morocco's friendship and promising him that someday the U.S. would be helpful to its friends" (Majid 2003: 8). This letter gives an account of the excellent relationships between Muslims and the U.S. despite belonging to different civilizations. Furthermore, in regard to the American literature he mentions American authors such as Ralph Waldo Emerson who tried to transcend cultural prejudices and narrow beliefs 'by reaching out for common ground and understanding' (Majid 2003: 8). Majid (2003) through historical events of Morocco and the US concludes that such examples of goodwill provide a pathway to peaceful coexistence. He rejects the existence of a monolithic Islam and one America with the same voice therefore: "even as the Bush Administration ousts Saddam Hussein, it is working on a flee-trade agreement with Morocco and helping its old Muslim ally to develop peaceful nuclear technology for its energy needs". (Majid 2003: 10)
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Dialogue in equal position, emphasis on shared values, moderation, tolerance, and communication are clues that make peaceful coexistence possible and desirable
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In line with peaceful coexistence it is of concern to mention the author's idea (2003: 10) that other people's truth is as good as ours which implies to refrain from assuming that our convictions are superior. Moreover, he (2003) states that contact with culturally different people and knowledge of their traditions is helpful in order to dispel prejudices and create openings for dialogue. He points out that Americans knew 'how to combine their sense of uniqueness and privilege without playing down the value of other traditions' thus, 'There is no reason that cultures and religions cannot disagree and yet live together. It has been done in the past, and it must be attempted even more vigorously in the future' (Majid 2003: 10). Finally, it is especially interesting to mention the proposal of Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero the President of Spain which was successfully accepted in the UN. The proposal called the Alliance of Civilizations consists in a huge project whose final target is to achieve a secure and equal world via cultural dialogue and international cooperation among civilizations. According to the Spanish foreign minister (2004: 1), the end of the Cold War opened a way for cooperation and hope due to the fact that it eliminated mutual fears and distrusts. The Alliance of civilizations contains an explicit criticism to 'the clash of civilizations' stated by the foreign minister. He criticizes (2004: 1) that intolerance, imposition and confrontation preached in 'the clash of civilizations' must be substituted by tolerance, equality and peaceful cooperation. Moreover, he states that religions have been used historically in order to justify violence especially in the Islamic world and he stresses the necessity to proclaim a new paradigm which can provide a real communication among the diverse nations of the world. In the Alliance of civilizations concrete actions in the field of education and politics are proposed so as to combat intolerance and stereotypes. Furthermore, this proposal preaches the abandonment of the war as a means of conflict resolution and to substitute it for multilateralism and it concentrates on the mass media as channels which can promote common cultural values. To conclude, several authors have demonstrated the historically peaceful and friendly relations between the West and Islam such as the good relations between the U.S. and Morocco and others have argued for the well-intentioned attempts of both parts in order to maintain peaceful relations such as the nine consultations made between Muslims and Orthodox Christians in
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order to cooperate. Therefore it is possible to affirm that there are tendencies towards peaceful coexistence among states with different culture, identity and religion. From the proposals discussed above some common points can be extracted such as the school as the place where peaceful coexistence can be materialized through education in tolerance and respect to others' traditions and beliefs. Other places suitable for the same aim are the mass media and global communications due to their universal scope. Dialogue in equal position, emphasis on shared values, moderation, tolerance, and communication are clues that make peaceful coexistence possible and desirable. Finally religious pluralism does not inevitably lead to conflict, on the contrary it means healthy society and it implies mutual respect and equal opportunity. Eva DĂez Global Affairs director Bibliography - Huntington S. (1993a) 'The Clash of Civilizations' Foreign Affairs, 72 (3), pp22-49. - Huntington (1993b) 'If Not Civilizations, What? : Paradigms of the Post-Cold War World'. Foreign Affairs 72 (5) pp186-194. - Huntington, Samuel P. (2002) The Clash of Civilizations and the remarking of world order, London: The Free Press - Hofstede, Geert (2001) Culture's consequences: comparing values, behaviors, institutions and organizations across nations, London; Thousands Oaks. - Kuinan A. & Auiram R. (1994) 'Culture dialogue as a way to deal with new immigrants' Education, 114 (3) pp401-410 - Moratinos, M, Spanish foreign minister (2004) 'Speech regarding the Alliance of civilizations', paper presented in the Arabic League, 10 December. - Majid, A (2003) 'Coming to Peace with Islam', Education Digest, 68 (9) pp4-10. - Papademetriou George C. (2004) 'Two Traditions, One Space: Orthodox Christians and Muslims in Dialogue.' Islam and Christian-Muslim Relations, 15. (1), pp55-64. - Wen, Jiabao (2004) 'Carrying Forward the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in the Promotion of Peace and Development'. Chinese Journal of International Law, 3 (2), pp363-368.
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
globalssociety
When children fight By Serena Fasso and Adrien Majourel
250,000 is, according to the latest UN report (1), the count of child soldiers worldwide. Called "Kadogo", "Atfal mujannadun" or "Meninos-lobos" depending on their homeland, 250,000 children are currently fighting somewhere in the world. During the past 10 years, over a million children have participated in conflict either directly as fighters or as cooks, servants, carriers or sexual slaves. Under international law (2) a child soldier is a person engaging in hostilities under 15 or 18. Mainly used during civil wars or by paramilitary groups, they are present in armies on every continent and sometimes account for over 50% of the country's armed forces (3). The child soldier problem is two-faceted. On the one hand, it is urgent to remove those 250,000 children from the killing fields. It is also crucial however to ask ourselves how those children, and the thousands who have known this fate, can be efficiently reintegrated into society. As the chief executive of Plan, one of the leading child-focused NGOs, says, " Failure to act will create a ticking time bomb of angry, alienated and traumatized youth whose only skills they have to rely on are those they learnt at war (4) ". A phenomenon that goes back to the dawn of time Children have been involved in wars for as long as man can remember. Until the 10th century of our era, in certain nomadic tribes such as the Scythes, Parthes, Mongols and Turks (5), anyone who was an archer or a horseman was considered fit to be a soldier. Fighting was then considered a rite of passage into adulthood. Nonetheless, in most " organized " civilizations such as the Romans (6), Greeks (7), Incas (8) and Ottomans (9), children started their training between the age of 6 and 10 but were rarely seen on the battlefield before they
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reached 16 or 18. In 7th century BC war-prone Sparta, children aged 7 were taken from their homes and trained to be the best Greek warriors; they were given meager rations of food and encouraged to develop their craftiness to steal food in town. At age 20 they could start fighting. Only at age 30 were they allowed to leave this communal lifestyle and initiate their own family. During the Middle Ages, a minimum age limit of 18 started to emerge on Western battlefields, with French King Philip the Handsome ("Le Bel") decree of 1303. Successive wars and the need for troops however eventually invalidated this decree (10).In the 17th and 18th centuries thousands of lost children were recruited to serve on ships in British harbours (11): with their small size, they could easily slide into the vessel's body and cool down the cannons with water. Throughout history, ideological and religious wars have always been the most fertile ground for the manipulation and recruitment of children. In 1212 (12), for instance, thousands of destitute children throughout Western Europe were convincingly made to believe in their God-given mandate to free the Holy cities (13). The "Child Crusade" however ended way before Jerusalem and those who were not sold as slaves died of thirst, hunger and cold. The mandatory " Hitlerian youth " is a more recent example of the same cruel phenomenon. When short of soldiers, children under 12 were sent to the front to slow down the Allies, notably during the storming of Berlin (14). The present situation The massive character of the use of child soldiers and the atrocities that accompany this phenomenon however are a product of our time. As of today, children are being recruited by groups such as the Taliban in Afghanistan, Burundi, Chad, Central African Republic,
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The latest UN report on Child Soldiers raised a profound concern by highlighting how internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps often serve as a platform for the recruitment of child soldiers
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Colombia, Democratic Republic of Congo , Myanmar, Nepal, Philippines, Somalia, Sudan, Sri Lanka and Uganda. The latest UN report on Child Soldiers raised a profound concern by highlighting how internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps often serve as a platform for the recruitment of child soldiers. Reports show for instance that the Karuna faction in SriLanka, Laurent Nkunda's forces in North Kivu, the DRC, and armed groups along the Sudan - Chad border have recently recruited children from IDP camps. In fact, this trend has been observed in most of the refugee camps worldwide, from the camps in Uganda and Myanmar to the thousands of recently displaced Kenyan children. The UN report also voices worries about the escalation in "systematic and deliberate attacks on schoolchildren, teachers and school buildings (…) In Afghanistan, the Taliban are burning schools, especially girls' schools as a message to prevent girls from receiving education.(…) In Iraq, students are the target of violent crimes and sectarian killings. " Beside dramatically reducing school attendance rates, these acts create and enforce auspicious conditions for child recruitment. Recent progress against all odds Nevertheless, according to the UN report, there have been " no new cases of child abduction in Cote d'Ivoire, where the parties have taken concerted measures to identify and release children associated with their forces for rehabilitation. "Thanks to international pressure, some countries seem to start complying with the new standards by raising the age limit in their regular armies. Even Myanmar's ruling junta took action last January against 43 members of the military for recruiting child soldiers over the last five years. Officials returned 792 children to their homes. This represents a fantastic hope but the way to make child soldiers history is still a long way to go. Human Rights Watch estimates that as many as 70000 children as young as 11 are still serving in Myanmar's national army (15). Children transformed into war machines Children make good soldiers because they are easy to mould, obedient and cheap. Being young and destitute, it is almost impossible for them to flee and those who dare to rebel are most of the time tortured or executed. Conditioned by the military hierarchy, they become reticent to betray their commanders, who
may remain important figures in their lives even following demobilization. The shortage of adult fighters and the proliferation of light weaponry also feed into the problem. Moreover, they are frighteningly effective on difficult grounds but also as spies or kamikazes. One can quickly make war machines out of them. Thus, during the 1980s civil war, the "Meninos-lobos" (wolf children) of the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO) were trained to commit massacre and torture, tasks they executed with enthusiasm, according to their own tales. In most cases, children receive a treatment whose atrocity is beyond human understanding. Initiation often requires recruits to perpetrate atrocities towards their loved ones as a means of breaking family bonds and hindering a possible return. Starved, drugged, they lose all notions of reality, life and death, committing and undergoing atrocities beyond their own comprehension (16). Child soldiers are often abducted from their homes, schools or communities and forced into combat, whether by government forces, rebel groups or paramilitary militias. Children who voluntarily join armed forces raise important issues (17). Are they to be considered the same as those children who are abducted and forced to fight? In 1793, after the French revolution, 14 year old drummer Joseph Bara became a legend and a hero as he died screaming "Vive la République! ". In the book "Des enfants dans la résistance" (18), Philippe Chapleau collects the testimonies of child fighters from the WW2 Resistance. He explains that they learned to bravely fight the occupying forces without necessarily being aware of the risks they were running, being instead inspired by Abbé Pierre's call in May 1943: "Youth of France, you, who lost everything, wherever you may come from, one last thing remains, your French spirit and its terrific power of rebellion. " Lucien Badjoko, a former child soldier from the former Zaire, confesses in his book "J'étais enfant soldat" (19) : "I wanted to be a hero in my country's history (…) free my family and my country from the dictatorship". This raises several questions: to what extent can a child take an objective and conscious decision to join an army? UNICEF (20) answers that in actual conflicts, minors who supposedly voluntarily join the army are often poor, illiterate and come from marginalized communities. Their choice is not a real one as they do not have any alternative and are too
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
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Although legal norms against the use and recruitment of child soldiers do not provide a solution per se, it is hoped that the criminalization of these horrific acts will act as a strong deterrent against them
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young or desperate to carefully evaluate their decision. Moreover, the definition of a child varies substantially across cultures. Societal structures and trends have a significant impact on our perception of child soldiers. Are children the world over ready to assume responsibility at the same age? Are there good causes for which it is tolerable to see a child fighting? In that regard, who has the wisdom to judge if some child soldiers are fighting for acceptable reasons or a heroic cause? Is it not a western paradox to try fighters and child recruiters when our own history is full of child war heroes? There are no obvious or simple answers to this. The only observations one can make is that, in a civilized world, it is unbearable to see a child carrying a gun. It is unacceptable that 250,000 and more children are, right now, in the hands of ruthless militias. Victims or culprits? The question of child soldiers' responsibility is therefore a complicated issue to resolve. Khadr's story recently made the news in this regard. Accused when he was only 15 of hurling the grenade that killed a US Special commando in July 2002, Khadr is now awaiting judgment in Guantanamo prison. According to the military prosecutors, he declared he wanted to kill Americans because he was told the U.S. opposed Islam. The ensuing sentence could potentially create a dangerous precedent for the thousands of children involved in conflicts against their will. Hence, on the one hand, children are not, in principle, supposed to possess the necessary wisdom to be held responsible for the crimes they committed during armed conflicts. On the other hand, in consideration of the fact that they did commit atrocities that caused harm and suffering to victims, there are those who assert they have criminal responsibility. Since children are victims and culprits at the same time, most national jurisdictions that faced the consequences of child soldier crimes have chosen amnesty. Legal measures to prohibit the use and recruitment of child soldiers National and international legal standards have clearly recognized the use and recruitment of child soldiers in hostilities as a war crime and abuse of children's rights. Humanitarian law
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(the laws of war) and human rights law (including the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC)) prohibit states and non-state armed groups from recruiting or using children under the age of 15 in armed conflict, whatever their intended role, both in national and international armed conflicts. Of particular importance in this respect is the Optional Protocol to the CRC on children and armed conflict which entered into force in 2002 and which establishes 18 as the minimum age for conscription, forced recruitment or direct participation in military hostility. This more rigid standard is also mirrored in the African Charter on the Rights of the Child, the only human rights instrument to include a legal definition of child as any human being under the age of 18. The Optional Protocol to the CRC represents an important international legal threshold in that it places obligations upon non-state armed forces not to, "under any circumstances, recruit or use in hostilities persons under the age of eighteen". However, it also introduces a further element of complexity by requiring government forces to deposit a binding declaration on the minimum age for voluntary recruitment, which cannot be set below 16. This potentially opens the door to forcible under-age child recruitment under the pretence of volunteerism. Although legal norms against the use and recruitment of child soldiers do not provide a solution per se, it is hoped that the criminalization of these horrific acts will act as a strong deterrent against them. The Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court considers the recruitment of children under the age of 15 or their use in hostilities as a war crime: its ongoing trials against two nationals of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) charged with the recruitment and use of child soldiers, Thomas Lubanga and most recently Germain Katanga, hold perhaps the greatest potential as a warning against the widespread abduction, forced recruitment and use of child soldiers in hostilities. Kimmie Weeks, who has been fighting for the disarmament of child soldiers in Liberia since the age of 12 and is the founding Executive Director of Youth Action International, expressed his opinion to us that: "the forced use of children as soldiers in armed conflicts is among the most heinous and atrocious acts. The systematic recruitment, and arming of children should be punished not just with condemnation, but with stiffer prison sentences. The International Criminal Court should move to rapidly put on trial and prosecute all those involved in the use of children in armed conflicts. This will send a clear warning that the punishment for
Issue 8 April/May 2008
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the use of child soldiers has reached such global dimensions that immediate action by civil society is urgently needed both to prevent and act against it
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using children as soldiers far outweighs the benefits. " (21) At present however, there remains a climate of almost absolute impunity in the DRC for war crimes and other international crimes; in fact, although recruitment of under-18s is illegal, it is not a specific criminal offence in the existing penal codes. Since 1998, the UN Security Council, in line with its mandate, has adopted several resolutions aimed at stronger enforcement of international standards related to children and armed conflict, in that it considers the use and recruitment of child soldiers to constitute a threat to international peace and stability. The UN Secretary-General submits reports to the Security Council on children and armed conflict approximately every year; since 2002, at the Security Council's request, these reports have included lists of specific parties to armed conflict - including both government forces and non-state armed groups - that recruit or use child soldiers in violation of their obligations under international law. In 2005 the Security Council also created a working group on children and armed conflict which considered reports on the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, CĂ´te d'Ivoire, and Burundi. In the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the working group recommended that existing sanctions, specifically travel bans and asset freezes, be expanded to apply to child recruiters. (22) The need for international pressure and human rights advocacy Whilst financial retaliatory measures such as sanctions may apply stronger pressure on individual perpetrators of specific crimes, the use of child soldiers has reached such global dimensions that immediate action by civil society is urgently needed both to prevent and act against it. Human Rights Watch, Save the Children and Amnesty International are amongst the biggest non-governmental organisations advocating for an end to the use of child soldiers by applying pressure upon States to stop this practice and work towards the reintegration of current child soldiers into their community. Crucially, their work is also pivotal in highlighting some of the international mechanisms that contribute to the perpetuation of this practice. Jo Becker, Children's Rights Advocacy Director for Human Rights Watch, stresses the need for coordinated international action:
"Currently in the world there are 20 countries where children are actively fighting: in ten of those countries, governments are involved, either by recruiting children directly into their own armed forces, or by supporting militias and paramilitaries that use children. Of these ten countries nine of them are currently receiving United States military aid", ranging from small amounts of funding for military training to hundreds of millions in weapons, training, and military financing. (23) These governments include Burundi, Chad, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Child rights advocates are bringing pressure upon the US to use their leverage and influence to ensure that these countries take all necessary measures to demobilize children and keep them out of their armed forces. Former child soldier Ishmael Beah, who was forced to fight for the Sierra-Leone Army at the age of 12 and is now the acclaimed author of "A long way gone: Memoirs of a Boy Soldier", supports the Child Soldier Prevention Act of 2007.(24) This would restrict five categories of US military assistance (International Military Education and Training, Foreign Military Financing, Foreign Military Sales, Direct Commercial Sales, and Excess Defence Articles) to the governments described above until they end any involvement in the recruitment or use of child soldiers. "It would really force a lot of these countries to pay serious attention to this issue", Ishmael Beah says in a HRW video in support of this bill (25). This Act will provide clear incentives for governments currently implicated in the recruitment and use of child soldiers to end this practice and demobilize children from their forces. It also encourages the United States to expand funding to rehabilitate former child soldiers and work with the international community to bring to justice rebel armed groups that kidnap children for use as soldiers. (26) The DDR process: what bleak future awaits children after combat? In the life of a child soldier, demobilisation and the child's subsequent attempt at reintegration into civil society are possibly the most delicate experience of all and the one requiring the most support and assistance. DDR (Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reintegration) often involves collaboration between various actors such as the forces who originally recruited or kidnapped the
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Issue 8 April/May 2008
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The Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers estimates that in countries such as Salvador, Ethiopia or Uganda, up to one in three child soldiers were girls
child, the child him/herself and third parties responsible for negotiating their release. Even after a child leaves the armed forces however, his freedom and civil liberties can rarely be guaranteed, since the escape or demobilisation of a child soldier often takes place in a climate of ongoing fighting and instability, where the civil population is continuously under threat and at risk of attack. Hence, fear of re-recruitment is a pervasive sentiment in the minds and hearts of the children and their families. According to many personal accounts and the experiences of people working in this field, undoing prejudice is amongst the greatest challenges following demobilisation. "As a child, we're caught up in this madness… it limits you from knowing yourself as a human being and it causes you suffering… and it brings suffering to everyone".(27) At the Muhazi demobilization centre near the capital Kigali in Rwanda, counsellors said that one of the biggest challenges was undoing the indoctrination of prejudice that children receive in the form of propaganda sessions with their captors. Boys who fled a Hutu militia which has links to the perpetrators of the 1994 Rwandan genocide were told that Tutsis were different from Hutus and that they had a longer nose. The power of these misconstrued ideologies on young combatants, often fearful for their life and totally isolated, should not be underestimated. In the 1990s, the regime of Saddam Hussein established a broad program of recruitment and training of child soldiers. According to Peter Singer, Director of the 21st Century Defence Initiative, the indoctrination and use of child soldiers offers totalitarian regimes a common means for maintaining control and deepening their reach into society: having children contributing to the militarization of society helps to justify heavy hierarchical control and helps divert internal tensions towards external foes.(28) When children escape or are released, they may be further rejected by society or their family and refused access to school: the sudden change from civilian life to that of a soldier and then back again can sometimes cause "adjustment disorder" (29). Psychologists say that former child soldiers can suffer from mental health problems, particularly post-traumatic stress disorder, which develops after exposure to a terrifying event or suffering, which may make their social and economic reintegration into the community extremely arduous. As Kimmie Weeks, himself a survivor of the Liberian civil war emphatically told us, " [I]f left unattended, their horrors will become the horror
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of us all. " (30) At this point, it is necessary to evoke the terrible fate of young girls whose special needs are rarely taken into account in DDR programs. The Coalition to Stop the Use of Child Soldiers estimates that in countries such as Salvador, Ethiopia or Uganda, up to one in three child soldiers were girls. Sexually abused without any consideration for their age (31), they are often forced to be the "wives" of other combatants. Beyond the terrible psychological trauma, they are exposed to unwanted pregnancies, sexually transmitted diseases and social stigmatization. Paradoxically and despite all the traumas they suffer, the last study from the African Union emphasises that "Women have proved to be the best in post-conflict reconstruction and reconciliation" (32). The importance of effective and long-lasting reintegration into society Reintegration programmes are delicate and crucial at once: once children become conditioned by a war-like environment, reintegration is essential to help children recover their selfesteem, contribute to the economic well-being of their family and recover a sense of purpose and worth in the community. In order to fight the risk of re-recruitment and the social rejection that former child soldiers often face in their original communities, it is vital to promote effective long-term community-based approaches to reintegration: ensuring access to education for school-age children and vocational training or income-generating activities for older children can all contribute to a child's reinsertion into his/her society. All too often however, lack of funds and appropriate planning mean that the majority of demobilized child soldiers do not possess any means to meet their needs in civilian life. (33) Kimmie Weeks stresses the importance of reintegration in order to help child soldiers resume a human life. "What saddens me the most is that the world is primarily supportive of child soldiers as they carry arms. When children are in arms, there are calls for their disbarment, demobilization and reintegration… However, once disarmament happens the support dissipates. Former child soldiers very rarely receive enough aid for rehabilitation or reintegration. " This lack of support awakens the fear in Kimmie that " [s]oon they will be forgotten and in a few decades their scars from their war
Issue 8 April/May 2008
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Reintegration programmes are delicate and crucial at once: once children become conditioned by a war-like environment, reintegration is essential to help children recover their self-esteem
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experiences will manifest themselves in far more negative ways. " On top of the cruelly lost lives and the missed opportunities that reduce countries' progress, many child soldiers, unless effectively integrated over the long-term, potentially hold promise for new cycles of war and violence. 250 000 But a glimmer of hope recently emerged. As the Special Representative of the UN Secretary General for Children in Armed Conflict stressed, we are now at a "watershed moment when international attention can be coupled with new mechanisms and instruments to end impunity for those using child soldiers. " Serena Fasso / Adrien Majourel Child Rights Advocate & Researcher/ French Journalist Blibliography 1. UN Report to the Security Council A/62/609S/2007/757 21/12/07 2. There are four kinds of international law in relation to child soldiers: international human rights law, international humanitarian law, international criminal law and international labour law. To illustrate the duplicity of legal standards on child soldiers, we refer for example to the 1977 Additional Protocols to the four Geneva Conventions and the Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989), both of which use a 15-year minimum age for recruitment and participation in hostilities, and to The African Charter on the Rights and Welfare of the Child which clearly specifies that a "child" is anyone below 18 years of age without exception. For an explanation of the applicable legal standards please see http://humanrightswatch.org/campaigns/crp/int-law.htm as well as discussion below. 3. According to the UN, child soldiers represent for instance almost 90% of the LRA's soldiers in Uganda 4. http://www.plan-international.org/news/childsoldiers/ 5. Jean-Paul ROUX - Histoire des Turcs - Paris, Fayard, 84 6. Giovanni LEVY et Jean-Claude SCHMITT - Histoire des jeunes en occident - Paris, Le Seuil, 1994 7. Michel MOURRE - Dictionnaire encyclopédique d'histoire - Paris, Bordas, 1996 8. Rafaële KARSTEN - La civilisation de l'empire inca Paris, Payot, 1993
9. Dominique VENNER (s/s Dir.) - Les corps d'élite du passé 10. André CORVISIER - La société militaire et l'enfant Annales de démographie historique, Enfant et Société, 1973 11. John PARR - Labouring children - Lion Croon - Helm 12. Marcel SCHWOB - La Croisade des enfants - 1896 13. Egli BECCHI et Dominique JULIA - Histoire de l'enfance en occident - Paris, Le Seuil, 1996 14. H.W. KOCH - Gerchichte der Hitlerjugend - Schulz, 19 15. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/2331431 16. For some child soldier testimonies visit the UN website: http://www.un.org/works/goingon/soldiers/stories.doc 17. The International Criminal Court for instance makes no distinction between "voluntary" and "abducted" child soldiers. 18. Philippe CHAPLEAU - Des enfants dans la Résistance (1939-1945) - OUEST-FRANCE 19. Lucien BADJOKO, Katia CLARENS - J'étais enfantsoldat - Editions Plon. 20. http://www.irinnews.org/IndepthMain.aspx?IndepthId=2 21. Personal correspondence between the author and Kimmie L. Weeks, dated 17/12/2007 22. UN Security Council Action on Child Recruitment http://hrw.org/reports/2007/srilanka0107/8.htm#_Toc15689 23. Children in the Ranks at http://hrw.org/campaigns/crp/child_soldiers/index.htm 24. This bipartisan legislation was introduced by United States' Senators Richard Durbin and Sam Brownback 25. Jo Becker, Children's Rights Advocacy Director for Human Rights Watch in Children in the Ranks at http://hrw.org/campaigns/crp/child_soldiers/index.htm 26.http://hrw.org/campaigns/crp/child_soldiers/takeaction 27. Ishmael BEAH in Children in the Ranks at http://hrw.org/campaigns/crp/child_soldiers/index.htm 28. Facing Saddam's Child Soldiers at http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2003/0114iraq_singer.aspx? 29. "Former child soldiers prepare to go home", IRIN, 13/11/07 - http://www.afriquenligne.fr/news/dailynews/drc%11rwanda:-putting-the-past-behind-them30. See supra n. 22 31. last UN report, in northern Congo, 60% of reported rape cases involved victims between 11 and 17 years old 32. http://www.africafiles.org/article.asp?ID=17075 33. Children at war: Creating hope for their future, Report by Amnesty International, October 2006, p.47
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