Pima County LUCIS report by Mark Fleming

Smart Land-Use Analysis for Pima County

The LUCIS Model:

Table of Contents.........................................................................................................................................

! " # Row Crops " " $ Nurseries % & ' % & ' & " % & ' & ( )

.......................................................................................................................................................... * + ( , & % / 0 + / 1556, $ 7 8 9 " ; 7 <$ $

& & ; = >/ $ 9 $= 1/ 9 9 " = ?/ $ " $ $ 0 + / 1556,7 <$ && & $ $

trends is the rapid loss of rural lands to urban sprawl. 9 $ 9 * $ 7 ( 9

& $ " 7 $ $ $ " " 7 <$ 9 * 9

! 7 & $ 0 $ "

$ " && & 9 / $ $ & $ 9 $ + / 1556,7 $ & & 9

" / " $ $

% @9 $ $ ( " & B # & ( ' % & LUCIS model. <$ ( $ $ " 0 & 9

/ " $ 7 <$ ( $ " $ 9 9$ $ 9 $ & = $ 9 & $ / $ $ & $ " * 7 What is LUCIS? ( $ & 9 $ " / " 7 9 9$ $ $

$ 9 9$

$ 9 7 " / (

9$ 7 <$ & $ ( " ; & / / 7

/ J7/ % # @9 7 155K7 * ) $ ( * 7 ' / &) E ' %

The origins of LUCIS <$ ( & $ ( " & $ 9 >5 $ 7 <$ " " $* / 9 $ $9 & 7 $ $ D " $ 9 $ $ $ 7 In the Florida study three teams were formed to represent $ $

/ / " 7 < ; " & $ " $ $ / " $ / 0 $ / & / 0 & $ $/ 9 / $ & & 7 E" ? " 9 " ! / G

/ $ ! & 9 $ $ ! & 9 $ $ $ " 7 $ $ ! " 9 & 7 <$ & $ / $ & $

& $ 7 ! " 9$ 9 $ $ 9 $ 7 $ & 9 9 ) H ; 0 & = " = & & " = $ " " 7

H ; 0 & = 9 = " = " = $ " =

$ 7

H% " = " = & 9 & $ = 9 & $ = 9$ $ & $ $ = 9

& $ " $ " $

/ & / = $ " " 7

.......................................................................................................................................................... <$ " $ $ 9 " $ ! " 7 & 9 9 9 ; 9 $ 0 9 7 ! " $ ( " $ & $ " $ & $ 7 E $ & $ ( B + , " ! " 7 E $ " " & $ ( 9$ $ & 9 $ $ 9 $ $ $ 7 (

$ " " $ " 9 / 7 $ " $ " 7 " $ ( 9 ( B ( B + ,7 8$ ( B $ $ 9 $ " " ( 7 <$ $ $ & ( B ( B $ " & & $ 7 $ & $ ( ( B $ & & $ 7 <$ ; 9 $ & & $ $ ( 7 <$ *9 9 $ $ & 7 <$ & & 9 J $ % + J%, E; $ & 9 7 [ ; J% 9 $ & 57\66 & " " 9 $ \676W & $ & 9 " & $ " $ " & ] + / @9 155\,7 [ <$ *9 9$

$ & 9 $ 7 <$ *9 $ & $ $

" & $ 9 $ $ $/ 9 & $ $ & 7] < $ / $ $

9 & 9 ! 9 & / 7 9

$ $ & $ & 9 & $ $

& 7 Results: J $ & & 9 &

" QVW ??W >XW

( Q?W QKW >5W

Q?W Q6W >>W

% ) J $ & 9 ; 7 " & 9 ; / 9 & 7 & $ & $ 9 9$ $ 9 9$ 9 7 J $ " & $ & $ & 7 / 9 & 7 ( 9 & >5W 9$ $ $ 9 $ $ " $ " Y $ $ $ $ 0 9$ $ $ ( to formulate. <$ ( $ 9 / $ " & $ 7 $ $ 9 " 7 / $ $ 9 9 $ " = 9 $ = 9 $ $= & 9 $ Z <$ / $ & & " / & 9$ $ & & 7 E; & " ) / 9 & = & ) & 9 $ & = & = J $ & 9 $ $ $ & = ( & = J $ & 9 $ $ $ & = & = " & 9 $

.......................................................................................................................................................... & = ( & = " & 9 $ & = ( & = / & = " & = J $ " & 9 $ $ $ & = & = J $ " & 9 $ $ $ & J & = J $ " & 9 $ $ $ & = ( & = J $ " & 9 $ $ $ & = ( & = / $ $ & = " & 7 Florida study conclusions &

$ (

$ ; & $ $ & ! " 7 $ $ $ $ / 7 $ % & & $ $ $ 7 <$ ( " " / $ $/

$ 9$ $ 9 9 $ " 7 % $ $ " $ & $ $ & " 9$ ; 7 <$ & $ " ; 7 9 / & 9 $ & 9

" 9 $ 7 ( & & " " $

$ $ $ & Y9 $ $ & " / / 7 8 $ $ & $

9 $ ! / G $ & ! 7 $ 9 $ $ / 9 9 $ ! & " " & 7 9 " 0 " 7 % " & $ $

" " $ 7 <$ ( $ $ opinion.

The Pima County LUCIS <$ ( ; " 7 <$ % 7 <$ $ 9 9 7 <$ % ( $ & 9 ! / $ & 9$ $ 9 & $ " & $ & $ $ $ " " & $ 7 " $ & $ $ & % / % & / $

& $ ^ % <$ ( " & 0 7 <$ ( " $ 9 $ 9 " 9 $ $ $ $

& $ 7

Goals & Objectives

Define the criteria for determining suitability

Data inventory

Preference

Suitability

Determine the relative suitability of all goal-driven data

Find data relevant to each goal and objective

Combine suitabilities to determine preferential lands for each land use

Conflict

Compare the three landuse preferences to deter nine potential landuse conflict

Conservation

Agriculture

Urban

! " ) ...................................................... MUA (multiple utility assignment)

SUA (single utility assignment)

>7 & 9 17 & " ?7 & " $ Q7 & \7 &

>7> # $ & 9 >71 # & 9 17> # $ & " 171 & " ?7> $ & $ " Q7> # $ & Q71 # & \7> # & \71 &

Sub objectives

>7>7> & 9 >7>71 & 9 >717 > " & 9 >7171 ; >717? ; ! 17>7> & " 17>71 9 & 9 17>7?

& " 17>7Q & $ $ 17>7\ 9 & ; 1717> ; 17171 " & " 1717? ; ! ?7>7> $ & $ ?7>71 9 & 9 ?7>7?

& $ _ " ?7>7Q & $ " Q7>7> $ & Q7>71 $ & Q717> ; Q7171 " & Q717? ; ! \7>7> & \7>71 9 & & 9 \7>7?

& \7>7Q & \7>7\ 0 & \717> " & \7171 ; !

>7>7>7> & >7>7>71 & >7>717>

>7>7171 0 >717>7> & "

>71717> & >717?7> & ! 17>7>7> & & " 17>7>71 & 0 & " 17>717> & 9 & 9 17>7?7>

& " + , 17>7Q7> 9 & 17>7Q71 & $ $ " 7 17>7\7> 9 & ; + , 1717>7> ; 1717>71 " _ ; 171717> " & " 1717?7> & ; ! ?7>7>7> & $ " ?7>7>71 0 & $ " ?7>717> 9 & & 9 + , ?7>7?7>

$ _ " + , ?7>7Q7> & $ " Q7>7>7> & & Q7>7>71 0 & Q7>717> & +>5` , Q7>717> & 0 Q71717> " & Q717?7> & ; ! \7>7>7> & \7>7>71 & \7>717> & ; 9 \7>7?7>

& \7>7Q7> & \7>7\7> 0 & \717>7> " & \71717> ; !

" ! " ........................................... MUA (multiple utility assignment) >7 " " 17 & 9 G ?7 & Q7 & $ ; " \7 &

SUA (single utility assignment)

>7> & " & >71 & >7? & 17> & & 9 171 & 9 ?7> &

Q7> ; ; " Q71 & " " " \7> 9 $ & \71 & 9 9 $ & \7? & & 9 ; _$

Sub objectives

>7>7> & $ >7>71 & & >717> >7?7> 17>7> / / G & 9 17>71 &

17>7? & 9 9 && 1717> & $ 0 & 9 17171 & G & / $ ?7>7> & 9

?7>71 & $ 9 $

?7>7?7 & 9 && $

Q7>7>7> ; " \7>7> & ; \7>71 $ 9 $ \7>7? $ "

>7>7>7> $ c $ + , >7>717> g $ c&"1+ , c 7 $ = 7 $ = $ ) $ >717>7> j Y 7 $ >7?7>7> + c , & c 7 $ = " c 17>717> E & c 7 $ = & c 7 $ 17>7171 & c 7 $ 17>7?7> 9 171717> $ 9 97 $ 1717171 ?7>7>7> 17>7? ?7>717> 17>71 ?7>7?7> J + $ c9 , Q717>7> ; " + Q Q7>, Q717>71

9 9 +$ , \7>7>7> ; \7>717> $ \7>7?7> + j %(g % jE j# , \7>7?71 + c , \717>7> 9 \717>71 \7?7>71 9 \7?7>7> + c ! ,

( ! " ........................................... MUA (multiple utility assignment)

SUA (single utility assignment)

Sub objectives

>7 & 17 & &

>7> $ & >71 & 17> $ & & 171 & &

?7 &

?7> $ &

>7>7> & >7>7>7> >7>71 9 & >7>7? "

>7>7Q 9 &

G >717> >7171 & >717? 9 & " " >717Q $ >717\ 9 & >7176 >717K " >717V 17>7> & 17>71 G 17>7? 9 & 17>7Q "

1717> " 17171 & 1717? ; 1717Q ; 2.2.5 near entertainment opportunities ?7>7> & ?7>71 G ?7>7? 9 & ?7>7Q 9 &

0 ?7>7\ 9 & $ 0

>7>7>71 &

>7>717> 9 & >7>7171 9 & 9 >7>717? 9 & 9 >7>717Q 9 & $ " >7>717\ 9 &

>7>7Q7> 9 & 9 >7>7Q71 9 & " " >7>7Q7? 9 & >7>7Q7Q 9 & 9 >7>7Q7\ 9 & >717>7> ! >717>71 >717>7? >71717> $ >717171 $

>71717? >71717Q >717?7> $

" >717?71 9 & >717?7? 9 & " >717?7Q 9 &

17>7>7> 9 17>7>71 $ 17>717> 9 & 17>7171 9 & 17>717? 9 & 9 & 17>717Q 9 & 17>7?7> 9 & 9 17>7?71 9 & 17>7?7? 9 & 17>7Q7> 9 &

1717>7> "

1717>71 9 $ " "

?7>7>7> 9 ?7>7>71 ?7>717> 9 & ?7>7171 9 & ?7>717? 9 & 9 ?7>717Q 9 & ?7>7?7> 9 & 9 ?7>7?71 9 & 9 & ?7>7?7? 9 & ?7>7Q7> "

?7>7\7> 9 & & ?7>7\71 9 &

( ! " ........................................... MUA (multiple utility assignment)

SUA (single utility assignment)

Sub objectives

Q7 &

?71 & Q7> $ & Q71 &

?717> & " ?7171 & ?717? ; ?717Q Q7> 7> & Q7>71 "

Q717> " & Q7171

\7 & "

\7> $ & " \71 & "

Q717? 9 & $ + / / , \7>7> & " \7>71 G & " \7>7? 9 & \7>7Q "

\717> " \7171 &

\717? ; \717Q & _ 5.2.5 near entertainment opportunities

?717>7> " ?717>71 9 $ " ?71717> + / ! , ?717171 ?71717?

Q7>7>7> 9 Q7>7>71

Q717>7> Q717>71 9 $ " " Q71717> 9 4.2.2.2 near major roads 4.2.2.3 near airports

\7>7>7> 9 \7>7>71 \7>717> 9 & 9 \7>7171 9 & \7>717? 9 & 9 \7>717Q 9 & \7>7?7> 9 & 9 \7>7?71 9 & \7>7?7? 9 & \717>7> "

\717>71 9 $ " " \71717> 9 / / & \717171 9 \71717? 9 " 5.2.2.4 major roads \71717\ \717176

) ' 9 .............................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for row crops

The soil composition 9 j' & $ $ 9 $

& $ $ $ & &

/ &

/ & / /

$ " & $ 7 $ $ & / 9 /

$ $ & & & $ 7 / & $ G 9 & / & " 9 / " & / & / & 9 7 9 air.

The crop yields map is NRCS data repre $ 7 9$ / $ / % /

/ / / / & & 7

! " # $!"# % & '

>> >>

) ' 9 .............................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for row crops (continued)

The landuse & 9 & % 7 %

$ $ & 9 ) E # ' % * $ & / $ / / = #E ( < #E & = ' ( <(' ( E * ; 9 $ = E # ' % * 9 $ = E # ' % * 9 $ = <8 ' 'E 'E #Ej< <'( <('E * & / / $ / $ / / & $ = J J*q E # ' % ' # <q %' #( < j * " &

The land values & ; " ; " & & 7 <$ 9 $ " $ $ $ $ & 9 7

) # * + ) # & '

) ' 9 .............................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for row crops (continued)

<$ 9 proximity to markets map is $ & $ / " & & 7 <$ & 9 && > 7 <$ $ & $ & 9 7

<$ 9 ; ! map is based on a data layer that shows major roads. The features were buffered in > 7 <$ ! $ & 9 lands.

) # * +

) " .............................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for high intensity live stock

The landuse suitable for high intensity live stock & % 7 %

$ $ & 9 ) # 'q %E' < vE %' %E'<q * ' j J %' %E'<q * 0 " $ G & " 0 * 8 'x j ' j J 9 $ *% <('E j#= zE# <'( <('E * & / / $ / / & $ 7

The livestock lands away from open bodies of water map uses three data layers that 0 B / ! 9 $ && X/ \55 &

& $ 9 B 7 <$ & $ & 9 $ & " lands.

) # * + , '

) " .............................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for high intensity live stock (continued)

The soil drainage suitable to support high intensity livestock map is based on j' 7 # + , & $ & G & 9 $ 9$ $ $ & 7 & $ 9 $ " / $ $ $ / $ $ " $ $ $ & $ 7 " & 0 * ; " / 9$ ; " / 9 / 9 / 9$

/ "

7 # & " & 9 / 9 / $ * (' )

The soils suitable to support rangeland and openland wildlife map is a NRCS soil 7 <$ $

& j' 7 " &&/ j ' " " / ( # & 7 & # 7 " $ )__ 7 7 "_ $ _ _ _ ;7 $ 7 {5?_5>_15>1|7

! " # $!"# % & '

The porosity suitable for high intensity livestock < < = $ QVc c

5 ! c 5 $ & $ ? + $ & 15 ,7 <$ $ $ $ $ & " " $

9 $ 9 &&/ " 7

The lands away from urban areas suit & $ $ " $ 9 1\55 & " & $ [( & * 8 ] +% 7 } 9 ,7 <$ & $ / " / / & 7 <$ ; >>*>55 _ G

) # * +

The lands away from markets suitable for $ $ " $ 9 $ 9

; " "

The land values suitable for high intensity livestock use $ 9 $ 9

$ $ " " & $

) # * + ) # & '

The lands proximal to major roads suit & $ $ " $ 9 > " & ! 7 <$ ! $ 7

The landuse suitable for groves and orchards & % 7 %

$ $ & 9 ) " Q1c c [

] Q?c c [ QQc c [! ! Q6c c [

) # * +

The lands away from open water bodies $ " 9 from open water

<$ & " $ $ & & "

! " # $!"# % & '

) $ ^ " .................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Landuse suitable for orchards and groves

The landuse suitable for orchards and groves & % 7 %

$ $ & 9 ) ' % <'EE ^<'EE ' / <'( ' % <'EE J J #Ej <q ' ( <('E7

The orchard and grove lands away from open bodies of water map uses three data $ 0 B / ! 9 $ && X/ \55 &

/ & $ 9 B 7 The farther from open water the better for " 7

) # * +

15 15

) $ ^ " .................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for orchards & groves (continued)

The irrigation capacity suitable for orchards & groves map is a NRCS soil data 7 <$ 9 & $ 7 $ $ $ $ $ 9 & 9 g/ / #7 <$ & & $ $ $ 7

The soil drainage suitable for orchards and groves $ & $ $ "

! " # $!"# % & '

) $ ^ " .................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for orchards and groves(continued)

The lands proximal to markets for orchards and groves map is the same as for 9

The lands proximal to major roads for orchards and groves map is the same as for 9

) # *

) $ ^ " .................................................................................................................. Agriculture Data: Land suitable for orchards & groves (continued)

The land values suitable for orchards and groves &

; " ; " & & 7 <$ 9 $ " $ $ $ $ & 9 7

The landuse suitable for nurseries map & % 7 %

$ $ & 9 ) % j< j(' E' E / 'EEjJ ( E ^ Jq#' % j 'EEjJ ( E 7 <$ 61?? " $

) # * + ) # & '

) j ............................................................ Agriculture Data: Land suitable for Nurseries

Q7>7> $ 9 0 & j

$ 7 Q7>71 $ 9 $ &

+>5 ,7 <$ \1\X >5 0 $ 9 $ 7

) # * +

) j ............................................................ Agriculture Data: Land suitable for Nurseries (continued)

Q717> $ 9 ; 7 Q7171 $ 9 " suitable for Nurseries.

) # * + ) # & '

) j ............................................................ Agriculture Data: Land suitable for Nurseries (continued)

Q717? $ 9 ; !

j<Ej< j

) # * +

) ' 9 ........ Agriculture Data: Combing row crop SUAs into MUA suitability maps

For row crops) ( $ 8 $ <

/ $ 9 $ ) $ >7>7> 9 $ $ >7>717 $ $

) v >717> 9 $ % ; >7171 % ; ! ' >717?7 <$ 9 / %$ >7> E >71

) " ............ Agriculture Data: Combing Livestock SUAs into MUA suitability maps

For livestock) ( $ 8 $ <

/ $ " $ ) 17>7>/ 9 & 8 17>71/

+% , 17>7?/ 17>7Q 9 ( 17>7\7 $ $

) % ; 1717>/ v 17171 % ; Major Roads 2.2.3. <$ 9 / %$ 17> E 171

) $ ^ " ..... Agriculture Data: Combing Orchards & Groves SUAs into MUA suitability maps

For Orchards & Groves) ( $ 8 $ <

/ $ & $ ) ?7>7>/ 9 & 8 ?7>71/

+% , ?7>7?/ ?7>7Q7 $ $

) % ; ?717>/ v ?7171 % ; Major Roads 3.2.3. <$ 9 / %$ ?7> E 171

) j ...... Agriculture Data: Combing Nursery SUAs into MUA suitability maps

For Nurseries) ( $ 8 $ <

/ $ 9 $ ) Q7>7>/ % E $ & >5` Q7>17 $ $

) % ; Q717>/ v Q7171 % ; Major Roads 2.2.3. <$ 9 / %$ Q7> E Q71

) ' 9 ..... Combining MUAs: Lands physically suited for row crops is merged with lands economically suited for row crops

) " ..... Combining MUAs: Lands physical suitable for livestock is merged with lands economically suited for livestock

) $ ^ " ..... Combining MUAs: Lands physical suitable for orchards and groves is merged with lands economically suited for orchaards and groves

) j ..... Combining MUAs: Lands physical suitable for nurseries is merged with lands economically suited for nurseries

% & ..... The merger of the four agriculture goal for agriculture. â&#x20AC;&#x153; & 9$ $ " 9 $ & $ ] + / @ 9 / 155K,7

% ( $ & $ & 9 "

G 9 $ +571\W, 9 $ $ 9 $

7 J 9 " $ ( & & 9 E; $ 9 $ 7 [ & 9$ $ " 9 $ & $ ] + / @ 9 / 155K,7 E; $ $ $ + J%, 9 $ $ $ & & $ $ $ $ 7

G & 9 " 9 $ & $ 7 <$ $ 9 & & 9 $ " markets. <$ $ " / $ J% & 9 $ 9 $ /

$ " & 7 < 9 $ 9 $ +57Q5, $ 9 " " $ < 9 & Pima County and so was dropped from the study.

% & ' & " ( <$ 9 $ + $ , $ 9 $ & $ " 7 <$ & $ & & " $ $ 9 $ && & 0 7 <$ $ $ ; ; $ $ & & 9 land use. <$ 9 $ 9 $ " & " & $ " " $ 0 & & + ; $ ; ,7 <$ " & " & $ & " & 7

................................................................................................................................................ < & " 9$ 9 $ / $ 0 & / $ 0 & & / " " $

$ D B j g $ 7 ' & $ $ $ $ $ $ / " & 7

9 9 $ ; " / ;

9 7 & $ * 9 7 j # " 9 $ " & $ $ " & analysis.

< $ $

0 * $ & & $ & 9 ) H ! $ $ & " G H $ 9 G 9 $ 9 &

H $ ) H & $ " H ( & $ "

H " & $ "

j 0 " " $ $ @9 7 j 0 $ " 9 & $ # "

" & 5 > & $ $ & 7 <$ 0 & G " 7 <$ 9 & " $ $ $/ 9 " >/ 1/ ? " 7 <$ $ " & $ 7 [<$ $ & $ & $ " $ 9 $ $ $

] + / @9 / 155K,7 <$ $ $ $ " $ & "

& & " $ / $ 9 " $ %

& Code # >>> / 9 &

>11 " >?? $ $ " 233 $ $ " 11> 1>1 222 ?>? $ $ 323 $ $ ??> $ $ " 332 $ $ " 333 $ $

& j Code # >>1 urban dominates >>? urban dominates >1> " >1? urban dominates >?> " >?1 " 1>> 1>? urban dominates 223 urban dominates 1?> " 232 ?>> ?>1 ?1> 322

! &

................................................................................................................................................ < / $ $

0 * & & & 7 $

$ $ $ " G & " + ! ,/ 9 $ " G & " / $ $ $ 9 & + ,7 8$ " $ $ $ " [ & ] $ 9$ " " $ $ = & ; ) ??? } !

?1> } & ??1 }

1>1 }

111} moderate prefer

1?> } " &

>1? } &

>1>}

>>>} 9 &

................................................................................................................................................ 9 $ $ " & $ (

& % 7 & $ ; $ & / " " $ G $ $ 9 " 7 $ & & 9$ $ 9 7 $ $ 7 <$ / 9$

9$ $

& 9 $ 0 7 0 $ " & $ ; / = $ $/ 97 <$ " 9 7

$ & / " " 9/ ; / ! $ 9 $ 9 9$ & * 0 7 ( $ & $ $ " & & 7 g / $

" " 7 J

" 9 & $ $ 9 " " $ $ 9 7 8$ $ ) / / # # / " " / $ & / 9 $ 9 9 $ ( $ $ & $

; 9$ & 9 9

" " / 9 & & & out. <$ ( $ $ & & " $ 9 $ $ 9$ ; % 15?57 8

" $

$ / & " 7 ( 9 &

9 / 9$ $ 7 &

9$ 9

\5 & 9 $ 9 9

$ 7 <$ ( " & $ " & " 7 g ! " $ / " / ! & $ 9 $ &

$ 7 ( &7 & $ & & ; & 7 g 9 & 0 " & ! & 7 ( 9 $ " & 9 & ; $

$ $ $7 <$ & $ & & & $ * 7 && 9 $ G [9$ ; & ] g $ $

& ( " 9 & 0 7 $ &

Conservation

Agriculture

Urban