Marshall White Projects Newsletter Edition 21 by Marshall White

Projects Review Edition 21, 2020

Where is the Market Heading?

Shifting Preferences

REA Development Insights

Build Better Faster & More Efficiently

Cover Photo Ascot Place â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 9 Newsom Street, Ascot Vale

Contents 1

A Word From the Directors Spotlight

3 - 5

Current Projects

6 - 7

The key to successful Project Management through COVID-19

7 - 10

Where Is The Market Heading?

11 - 13

Finding silver linings in a (digital) COVID world

14 - 20

Shifting Preferences

21 - 31

Developer Insights: New Apartments

32 - 33

Build Better, Faster and More Efficiently with the Right Team

Projects

Past Projects

Hazel Hawthorn

Wattle on the Park 835

Custom

1975

St James Park

Glenarm Sq

Rose & Bird

Daracombe

Ascot Place

Carrington Hill

Hurstmon

Contributors 6 - 7

The key to successful Project Management through COVID-19 - neoscape

7 - 10

Where Is The Market Heading? - Charter Keck Cramer

11 - 13

Finding silver linings in a (digital) COVID world - Hatched Media

14 - 20

Shifting Preferences - Secret Agent

21 - 31

Developer Insights: New Apartments - REA Developer Insights

32 - 33

Build Better, Faster and More Efficiently with the Right Team - Creation Homes

+ 61 3 9822 9999 1111 High Street, Armadale VIC 3143

Disclaimer: Information provided is believed to be accurate as at the date of printing, no responsibility is taken for any errors or omissions. It is your responsibility to obtain independent, professional advice. Every effort is made to provide accurate and complete information in Marshall Whiteâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s (trading as Marshall White Projects) technical and regulatory newsletters. However, Marshall White cannot guarantee that there will be no errors. Marshall White and its contributors to the newsletter make no claims, promises or guarantees about the accuracy, completeness, or adequacy of the contents of the newsletters and expressly disclaims liability for errors and omissions in the contents of this newsletters. Neither does Marshall White and its contributors to the newsletter assume any legal liability for any direct, indirect or any other loss or damage of any kind for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, product, or process disclosed herein, and do not represent that the use of such information, product, or process would not infringe on privately owned rights.

A Word From the Directors We’re all very much looking forward to again catching

what was on offer this time last year (which it certainly

up with friends and family without any restrictions.

will be this Spring) then it’s clearly not a bad time to

Whilst we’re not yet at that point in time, the real estate industry has however been permitted to resume one on one appointments, of course in a safe and responsible manner.

sell. Four out of ten empty nesters choose to buy and sell in the same market and then make two moves, rather than punt the market at a project’s completion date.

All of us a Marshall White Projects are now happily

Now today more than ever, we need to thank our

reengaging with the many buyers we’ve spoken to

developer clients for following our recommendation

over the last nine weeks of lockdown, specifically those

of “going now”, by introducing their new baby to

considering owning off the plan property.

the marketplace. Unlike a residential listing where

We’ve discovered, not surprisingly, that the financial circumstances of some buyers now changed and are now out of the market. The majority however, particularly those who had sourced their finance pre lockdown, are telling us they’re still good to go. You’d expect there’s been a pent-up demand (If they not buying from us then they’re not buying from anyone else – right?). This has been clearly evident throughout our seven projects “green lit” to launch throughout the remainder of 2020.

vendors invest for the sale of one, with projects you need to invest in for the sale of many. The majority of residential projects still require a substantial investment in collateral and an even greater investment in media over a prolonged period. Whilst no buyer tells you that your baby’s ugly (they just keep looking) early signs of adoption will favour the brave developer. The financial pundits are touting the recently announced Federal Budget as " providing a shot in the arm to employment, youth job creation, consumer confidence and spending". The flow on benefit however

Undoubtedly astute purchasers, with time on their

to the off the plan purchaser is yet to be seen. Until

hands, have continued to research the off the plan

concessions to stamp duty are no longer either means

market from the comfort (and security) of their own

or contract price tested and the heavy impost to a FIRB

home. Interestingly most first home buyers are only somewhat aware of the raft of schemes and incentives

buyer is lifted, any knock-on effect will be limited.

available to them on both a State and Federal level and

More than ever, the adage of “not all business is

so motivating them to grab these opportunities today,

good business” rings true. Underfunded, overprices

is a different matter. The average buyer journey for this

and poorly conceived projects throughout marginal

important and very active demographic has remained

metropolitan areas, simply won’t get up.

static at just over four months.

It’s often used against us by our competitors but being

Projects like “Hazel Hawthorn” (average price over one

known for what you pass on rather than what you take

million) and “Contour” Malvern (average price over one

has enabled us to maintain our hard-fought reputation

point five million), catering to predominately empty

of finishing what we start. Loyal clients such as

nesters have demonstrated a different market reaction.

Metro, Roulston, Buxton Group, Moda and BHC which

Most downsizers who have enjoyed their family home,

collectively add up to over 25 projects (and counting)

often for many decades, have already made their free

have always appreciated straightforward, honest advice

money. They’re also seen the cyclical nature of the real estate market over the same period and in the end recognise the time to move is usually predictated

and the same level of support shown by us for the first sale as to the very last. We invite you to join us.

around ever the basic fundamental of supply and

As always – we wish you good selling in our brave new

demand. When the residential supply’s a fraction of

world.

Leonard Teplin Director

Mark Dayman Director

T: 03 9832 1191 M: 0402 431 657 leonard.teplin@marshallwhite.com.au

T: 03 9832 1193 M: 0409 342 462 mark.dayman@marshallwhite.com.au

Spotlight

Larissa Rael

Ross Hams

Georgie Lupson

Executive Assistant

Sales Executive

Larissa’s passion for property was sparked at a young age and she is armed with an extensive knowledge of the real estate industry. Larissa began her career in property management in London before returning to Melbourne where she was one of the original Marshall White team members. Larissa’s adventurous and inquisitive nature has also taken her abroad to Boston, where she lived for over a decade.

A new breed of real estate agent, his intellect, market knowledge, passion and dedication impresses both new and existing clients who are rewarded with his uncanny ability to consistently negotiate hundreds of sales a year whether on or off market with local and international clientele.

Business Manager A stellar work ethic and determination has seen Georgie flourish in her role in the Marshall White Projects team. Approachable and genuine, Georgie is a sales administration specialist whose professionalism and positive outlook make her a delight to engage with.

Known for her personalised and professional approach coupled with compassionate guidance for her clients, Larissa plays an integral role in ensuring the smooth and efficient operation of our Projects division. Combining exceptional management skills and a keen eye for detail, Larissa’s positive and optimistic outlook make her a highly revered team member. Larissa grew up in Stonnington and was educated at St Michael’s Grammar School. She has two children and is immersed in their schooling and extra curricular activities. Larissa enjoys doing Pilates and yoga in her downtime as well as exploring Melbourne, travelling and catching up with friends and family.

Specialising in projects throughout Melbourne, each year he successfully sells in excess of $100 million worth of property. Ross has managed the sales campaigns for some of Australia’s most successful residential apartment and townhouse developers. Displaying an intimate understanding of consumer trends Ross utilises this knowledge advising clients on how to create a superior product to suit the ever changing buyer demands. In his spare time, Ross enjoys spending time down the coast with his wife Jo and three kids and supporting his beloved Cleveland Cavaliers and Melbourne United.

Georgie possesses superb attention to detail and exceptional management skills, ensuring she is impeccably organised and well prepared at all times. With broad experience across a range of departments, Georgie is a valuable team member who understands clients’ needs. Educated at Loreto Mandeville Hall in Toorak, Georgie is highly knowledgeable of the Stonnington area and loves sharing her recommendations with clients. Outside of work, Georgie is involved in local sports and is an avid golfer and AFL footballer in the VAFA league. A fervent supporter of the Melbourne Football Club, Georgie also enjoys travelling and exploring Melbourne’s great beaches.

Project

Hazel Hawthorn 368 Auburn Road, Hawthorn

Project

Custom 20 Station Street, Highett

Project

1975

Glenarm Sq

1975 Malvern Road, Malvern East

1 Glenarm Road, Glen Iris

Project

Daracombe 7 Daracombe Avenue, Kew

Project

Ascot Place

Carrington Hill

9 Newsom Street, Ascot Vale

101 Carrington Road, Box Hill

Project

Hurstmon 3 Hurstmon Street, Malvern East

Neoscape on Dynamic Leadership and Teamwork - the key to successful Project Management through COVID-19 Written by Mark Nathan, Director, Neoscape, 0417 381 083, www.neoscape.com.au

We have had the privilege of managing many, very special projects over the years. With the benefit of experience, we can say that dynamic, solution focused leadership and collaborative relationships result in high quality builds with successful project outcomes. One thing we know for sure is that change is the only certainty. By constantly reading the emerging trends, challenges, and opportunities our industry faces, we can continually stay ahead of the market requirements. Since the rise of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia from March this year, the importance of a forward-thinking approach and dynamic leadership and teamwork on our projects has become more important than ever. Our communication output has gone up considerably, with concerted efforts to provide consistent, reassuring feedback and real-time advice to our clients and partners. Thankfully the head contract agreements, in place with our builders provide a balanced risk sharing in relation to the time and cost impacts of COVID-19 which is not an accident. Getting robust commercial agreements in place between the developer and builder is important and so is ensuring the parties have a clear understanding of what risks they are signing up for. The industry seems to be quite confused and varied in relation to its commercial response to COVID-19, largely due to the fact that Global Pandemic is not generally contemplated in standard industry agreements. We are now introducing COVID-19 specific clauses in all new agreements to ensure that there is no confusion between the parties as to where the responsibilities and risks sit within the head contract. This reduces the potential for dispute, creating a platform where the whole team can work in collaboration to deal with this major challenge and give every project the best possibility for success. We have seen builders and suppliers face significant pressures through delays from the supply chain which has had the potential to cause major delays to our projects. The Stage 4 lockdown measures introduced in August created even further challenges, with building site productivity and resources reduced to 25% and various other measures in place that put huge pressure on the project teams.

neoscape

Some of the challenges faced are: • Delays in procurement of materials (both local and overseas) • Requirement for entire design and management teams to work remotely • Delays in approvals and permits from Councils and Authorities • Introduction of COVIDSafe measures on site including greater distancing of workers, split lunch arrangements, increased deep cleaning, reduction in worker numbers and site management teams • Force Majeure delays applying pressure to the building program and sunset dates

To overcome the challenges faced we have increased our team engagement and adopted various measures to work with our project teams to mitigate impacts to the projects, including: • Working with the builders and alternative suppliers where overseas markets cannot deliver • Regular Zoom and MS Teams virtual meetings to ensure collaboration and information flow continues • Increased engagement with our developer clients, the financiers and the purchasers to keep everyone informed of the latest challenges and potential impacts • Early communication and engagement with builders around potential COVID-19 delay claims to ensure fair and balanced outcomes and minimise potential for disputes that could cause further impacts to time and quality

these extensive site limitations to the deliver the project in a timely fashion and to outstanding quality. Now more than ever, having a team of professionals that you trust, with their finger on the pulse and your best interest at heart is vital. The emphasis on dynamic leadership and teamwork is at the core of what we do at Neoscape and we cannot stress enough the importance of these areas of focus to the success of our projects, especially through the challenges COVID-19 has thrown at us. Founded in 2013, Neoscape has over 25 years’ combined experience in construction management, development management and project delivery. See www.neoscape.com.au to learn more about Neoscapes’ completed and current projects. #youwantusonyourteam

• Thorough scrutiny of progress claims and builder liquidity • Working strategically with the builder to plan the allocation of 25% resources during the stage 4 lockdown to best position the project to ramp up to full productivity and completion post lockdown. Fortis Developments’, East Grove Apartments, is an example of leadership and teamwork being triumphant in the face off uncertainty through the COVID-19 pandemic. With project handover completed in May of this year, it is fair to say that the final month of this project was a challenge. The entire team rose to it, implementing new procedures and going above and beyond normal ways of operating to get the job done. An integral part of the handover process is defect management, to ensure a top quality finish on the product. In this unique COVID-19 environment, a significant focus was placed on ensuring the quality and detailing continued to be achieved. Additional inspections and defect walks were conducted, often after hours or later in the afternoon due to distancing requirements. Along with this, we staged defect and inspection periods to mitigate the risk of infection on site and maintain social distancing requirements. Additional workshops with Ewert Leaf (architect) and Cobilds’ (builder) project team were held to resolve details remotely when site access was limited and fast-tracked communication between all parties with extra courtesy updates and photos gave peace of mind to the entire project team. Adaptability and dynamic leadership saw us through

neoscape

Where Is The Market Heading? At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the media was heavy with commentary as to the impending collapse of the residential property sector with forecast average losses of up to 30% across the Australian market. Was this ever likely to occur?..or has the media been overly influenced by alarmist rhetoric. So far, the market has not collapsed, in deed, Melbourne on average is still in a net growth position over the last 12 months. Written by Stewart McKenzie, Associate Director, Charter Keck Cramer, 0408 340 488, www.charterkc.com.au

- Land subdivisions, historically reliant upon strong population growth, particularly immigration (overseas and interstate), was relatively subdued throughout 2019, improving late 2019/early 2020. With the introduction of government incentives, particularly the Home Builder Grant, the sector experienced a significant increase in activity as purchasers sought to capitalise on government incentives, particularly involving the sale of titled land with most estates sold out at pre COVID-19 value levels. - The urban established house market is less reliant upon migration levels, the market mainly dominated by local participants scaling up or down dependent on age, family status, etc.. In this space there is usually a group of participants marginally priced out of any specific

As valuers, particularly as specialist development valuers, we undertake broad research in conjunction with a variety of market stakeholders, particularly medium density developers, land subdividers, agents and financiers as we all seek to appreciate the varied market dynamics, that together influence sales and development activity, values and confidence. Unlike any other downturn in recent history, the onset of COVID-19 and the effect on the global economy is not the direct result of any economic imbalance, but, in Australia, as elsewhere globally, is a result of a deliberate shutdown of the economy as a strategic health prevention initiative. It did not gradually occur as a result of economic decay, but was forced almost instantly and for that reason is an unexpected interruption, rather than an economic consequence. Interestingly, the residential sector has evidenced limited overall value change to date, however market activity is patchy, with varying trends across the different segments. - Major residential developments, particularly high density/high rise towers, may now be viewed as more speculative undertakings, particularly as high concentration residential numbers involve greater risk of infection hotspots.

property type. Should values fall as little as 5-10%, this purchaser group, supported by the lower interest rate environment is able to acquire established properties which were previously unattainable. This group provides a safety net to residential values falling too far. - In the urban medium density townhouse and apartment sectors, pre-sale volumes have significantly reduced. In the months prior to the outbreak, many project agents were reporting the strongest activity since the peak of late 2017. Wholesale discounting has not occurred, the most preferred projects are still reporting activity, although it’s a slow burn; whilst more secondary projects, by way of location or quality have generally stalled and remain in a holding pattern. - Regional areas, particularly major regional centres and coastal localities within two hours commute of the Melbourne CBD have seen an uplift in interest, as Melbournians recognise the prospects of a flexible working environment and the desire of families seeking a “healthier” lifestyle. Demand is currently very strong and in some instances it has been reported Melbournians are purchasing properties without inspecting them! - An inability to conduct inspections has left the established Melbourne market in a period of hiatus. The segment essentially in a holding pattern for some time, awaiting a relief from lockdown provisions. Currently, agents are increasingly utilising an “off market” strategy, aware there are purchasers actively seeking accommodation. Videos and other innovative technics are assisting this difficult period. - Pre-sale settlement risk has remained topical throughout 2020, particularly in the apartment sector. At Charter we have engaged with our large developer clients to monitor this issue. Of the large inner urban projects settled in 2020 we are not aware of any wholesale settlement failure. - In the rental markets, overall vacancy rates have increased to historic highs. However, this data appears to be heavily skewed by locales including the CBD and surrounds which are heavily reliant upon students, particularly from overseas. In contrast some outersuburban areas have sub 1% vacancy rates.

Charter Keck Cramer

The utilisation of Job Seeker/Keeper, coupled with the deferment

available the economy will remain exposed to more outbreaks.

of home loan repayments has certainly been supportive, but with

Subject to no new major outbreaks, we expect to enter a new

changes to both expected in coming months, it is not unreasonable

COVID-19 “normal” environment which would include the inevitable

to envisage continued volatility going forward.

return of tertiary students, the opening of domestic borders to

For those in the residential development space, thanks to the

enable interstate tourism, the slow return of Melbourne’s café

labour heavy nature of residential construction and many years of

society, restaurants and nightlife and a significant acceptance of

commentary as to challenging housing affordability, the government

working from home arrangements, but with some level of under-

will likely continue to focus stimulus in this sector. This in

employment, certainly in the near term. International tourism will

conjunction with other recent budget announcements will continue

take longer.

to assist the economy, although the benefits may not be immediate.

The simultaneous end of Job Keeper/Job Seeker and mortgage/

An underlying fundamental set to support the market on an ongoing

lease deferments represents a real challenge and we expect quite

basis is the very low interest rate environment. Our analysis

a significant structural change within the economy which is yet to

would conclude that in the affordable housing market segments,

be reflected, but higher unemployment is inevitable. A continued

particularly the outer suburban region and some inner urban

rise in online shopping and difficulties in the retail sector will also

medium density segments, competitive P&I mortgage repayments

be inevitable as the population seeks to minimise virus exposure,

are at a level below gross rentals. This encourages owner occupiers

certainly in the absence of a vaccine or treatment.

to meet loan obligations, but also renters with an adequate deposit to purchase accommodation, as they can achieve lower ongoing

It is not unreasonable to conclude there will be continued volatility

expenditure through ownership.

affecting the local and global economies for some time, but

As has been the response in previous slowdowns, many developers have revamped business models. The focus is now on smaller more boutique projects in the townhouse and apartment sectors, delivering owner occupier product particularly with larger private open spaces. Many of these developers are delivering a higher

there are a variety of underlying fundamentals which support the residential property sector. We note in previous downturns, investors have sought the relative safety of residential rental investments and more recently we have observed an increasing prevalence of developers retaining complexes as a build and rent

quality product by offering superior design and specification. In

scenario, whilst institutional developers are also entering this space.

some areas, this is securing a very real competitive advantage,

Reduced population growth will influence this narrative, but for

achieving pre-sales throughout the lockdown period, but also strong

many years Melbourne has struggled to deliver adequate housing

value rates which would indicate for the right product, appetite remains.

supply to meet migration levels. Therefore, in conjunction with continued pre-commitment requirements restricting new supply,

We envisage an ongoing subdued market environment for probably

the risk of any major oversupply imbalance is less likely, rather we

18 months. Until either a vaccine or effective treatment is widely

expect fewer active projects.

Charter Keck Cramer

Development Site Market Overall, the market has now cooled, directly as a result of the broad variety of changes in market circumstance summarised above. The very real difficulties in achieving pre-commitment has reduced the bullish attitudes of most participants, whilst the now tighter finance environment for development land is having a very real effect on feasibilities, with many participants now finding funding through the “non-bank” private lending market. Sites in desirable localities with limited competing supply and which are suited to boutique schemes have remained in strong demand, in many cases achieving pre-covid values as these are viewed as more deliverable in the current environment. These sites usually offer above average access, with multiple street frontages enabling superior design outcomes including above average access to natural light and ventilation to all dwellings, enabling a far more efficient outcome. Typically, prime sites are complimented by adjoining land uses such as schools, local shops and parkland enabling the delivery of a product for which discerning owner occupiers may pay a premium. In contrast, secondary sites usually involving design constraints, less preferred surrounding land uses and poor access to transport are losing favour with purchasers which are now more discreet.

Confidence is a major driver of activity across the economy, not just the residential market. Confidence in employment, confidence to send children to school and childcare and confidence in the government to lead the population and economy through difficult times is essential if ultimately we are to complete normal daily activities such as physically attending shops, cafes and nightlife venues without fear. How well the government leads and the community come together to mitigate further outbreaks is difficult to speculate. Positive results will lead to more “normalised” market conditions.

Charter Keck Cramer

Larger sites, suited to projects of very real scale, particularly apartments whilst still sought to varying degrees have also been affected, as such sites are now considered more “landbank” pipeline opportunities, where developers must now acquire land and meet holding costs. With all these issues inter-related and affecting individual sites to varying degrees, comparable evidence must be carefully considered as should the profile and future prospects of any site acquisition. From a purely analytical point of view, in this current COVID environment, there is a greater perceived risk, particularly in relation to longer sale periods and less certain delivery timeframes.

Finding silver linings in a (digital) COVID world After a decade of price boom and busts, Australiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s property market will see big changes in the 2020s. Written by Jack Byrne, Managing Director, Hatched Media, 0410 236 510, www.hatchedmedia.com.au

After a long winter, when consumersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; minds have been preoccupied

it should, which has largely been driven by uncertainty and lack of

with their health, local and global politics and intense economic

confidence, where the braver marketers have been able to capitalize

pressures took far greater priority than buying property, we are now

on the least amount of competition seen in over a quarter of

seeing some real changes in how consumers engage with brands,

a decade.

engage with media channels, and go through their own version of the purchase cycle.

While it is unlikely the trends we have seen will continue at the rate they did from the start of COVID, it is evident the baseline has

There are two things that are very clear- firstly- if brands and

shifted to a much higher level than what was seen prior to COVID,

marketers werenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t taking the online space seriously before, with

and consumer behavior appears to have changed for good.

the advent of COVID, consumer behavior within the online space

Some clear indicators of this is through the growth in e-Commerce

has brought forward online consumer behavior by an estimated

seen around the world, which saw the US and UK e-commerce

7-10 years, adding extra pressure on businesses not up to scratch

penetration rise to the highest levels ever recorded (Figures 1 and 2)

to catch up with urgency. And secondly, there is clear evidence

where in a short 8 weeks saw as much growth as the previous

that there has been bigger retreat for brands and advertisers than

10 years.

Figure 1

Hatched Media

Figure 2

Closer to home, Australia has always lagged behind more advanced

above pre-COVID levels with most of these sales through online

markets such as the US and UK, however the latest illion data

means which saw an increase of 95% in online sales as shown in

showed that after consumer spend dropped some 21% in March,

Figures 3 and 4, before stabilizing around June and coming back to

the Government stimulus achieved what it was designed to do with

what we expect to be closer to the new normal, although this was

these incentives from April to July then pushing spending to 20%

still a 44% increase YOY from June 2019 (Figure5)

Figure 3

Figure 4

Figure 5

Hatched Media

Despite the significant shift online, brands and advertisers were slow to capitalise on this movement, and those that moved first, or where already set-up prior to the pandemic turning the world upside down, which saw advertisers retreat rather than attack due to uncertainty that comes with a once in a 100 year event such as we have just seen.

The latest SMI data, which measure advertising spend by channel, showed a 24% drop across all channels, with the biggest losers being Cinema (-60.1%), Magazines (-44.1%), Outdoor (Billboards etc -42.3%), and Newspapers (-31.5% and Radio (-31.4%) as highlighted in Figure 6 below:

Figure 6

These drops in revenue flies in the face of what was actually

Based on the surge in online behaviour showing jumps in retail sales

happening with consumers, and as shown in the most recent Roy

tells itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s not all doom and gloom in the marketplace, demonstrating

Morgan figures (figure 7), mediums such as radio, which saw a drop

consumers are primed to splash some of the $43.2 billion across

of over 31% in revenue, actually saw an increase in audience, as did

5.6 million (ABS data) trips overseas for holiday purposes that

Television, despite dropping around 22% for YTD, showing the that confidence is the key driver to advertising behaviour.rather than what is actually happening with consumer behaviour.

wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t be taken this year on other things, such setting themselves or their family members up in their first home or even upgrading or renovating their current home, investing in the stock market, saving or just plain treating themselves which is evident in the retail trends.

Further to this, ABS data released in August reported retail was

What is clear is the unique opportunity available for brave

back -4.0%, which was indeed true when looking month-on-month,

businesses and marketers with a solid digital foundation to capitalise

however when viewed YOY, August was in fact up by 7.1%, and total

on a time not yet seen, and brands will be built or broken over the

online sales (in terms of $) was up 81% vs August 2019.

next 12-18 months because of it.

Figure 7

Hatched Media

THE SECRET AGENT REPORT VOLUME 91 - MAY/JUNE 2020 SECRETAGENT.COM.AU

SHIFTING PREFERENCES

Secret Agent

Shifting Preferences Vol.91 May/June 2020

Shifting Preferences by Jodie Walker

Change is the one thing that is a constant in our lives. Sometimes we are forced to change, other times we evolve naturally.

There is no doubt that all of us have been forced to change how we do things in recent months as a result of COVID-19. Quarantine has meant new habits have been put into place, many of these may stay around even after the virus dissipates. This report, Secret Agent will look at some of the things that may change in terms of property preferences as a result of the time weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve had to spend in quarantine. Many of these changes will likely be amplifications or deviations of existing trends, rather than dramatic shifts, as will be discussed. CHANGING HABITS CREATE CHANGES IN PREFERENCES Prior to COVID-19, many of us used our homes as places to sleep and to store our belongings. After commuting, working all day, going to the gym, going to the shops and going out for dinner with friends, time spent at home was not a large component of the day. Weekends were perhaps the only time when we had a significant amount of time to spend at home to clean, relax or entertain. Then the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic unfolded and we had to get used to doing everything in our homes. This included work, exercise, cooking all our meals, schooling children, and even getting fresh air. What we value in a home will likely change a lot, post COVID-19. Many things we thought were important have become less so after being forced to be at home full time. Other things we took for granted or dismissed, have been highlighted as essential. Whilst quarantine isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t forever, the fact we have been at home

Secret Agent

Shifting Preferences Vol.91 May/June 2020

Many people have converted their garages into home gyms. Source: Working Out in My Garage by Kyra Anzaldo (Youtube)

for so long, means that we have had to change many of our daily habits. We haven’t just been able to take a break and go back to our regular routines a week later. We’ve had to keep going on with life, in a very different environment.

It has been found that on average it takes 66 days for a behaviour to change. (Lally, 2010)

Once we get used to doing things a certain way, and integrate that habit into our lives, it becomes part our new normal. A good example of this is when transport infrastructure gets upgraded. With train lines closed for a period, a commuter who has relied on that train to get to work for 5 years, may start cycling to work instead. They get used to the ride commuting, and may even begin to enjoy it. When the trains go back to normal, rather than reverting back to their old method of transport, they choose to keep riding. It’s easy to do what is already a habit. The quarantine period has been a perfect amount of time for us to ingrain some of our new habits. Life may return to normal; nobody knows for sure. Yet, it doesn’t mean that we will return to all of our old habits. We might have discovered new ways of doing things that we like, as well as realising a lot of our old habits were inefficient or not enjoyable. If we can get the same outcome in a more efficient way, for example by

working out at home rather than trying to get to a gym, then we may continue to do so. The changes we choose to keep could involve all areas of our life. Those relating to our homes, how we use them, where we live and where we work will be the most interesting things to watch in future years. HOW SPACE WITHIN THE HOME IS USED There are two aspects to consider when it comes to the principal place of residence. The first one is the internal home. Most of us have now experienced what working from home is like. Some have also had the rest of the household around at the same time. This has potentially brought up many issues that may not have been apparent before COVID-19. For example, with everyone at home all the time, separate space for each member of the household has become highly desirable. It’s fine to have an open plan living area for lounging around and entertaining purposes. But if there’s work to be done and schooling to complete, open floor plans can be a detriment to productivity. Perhaps open plan living, which was already losing steam, may be on the out, as families look to create seperate rooms where members can have their own space.

SHIFTING PREFERENCES

Secret Agent

Shifting Preferences Vol.91 May/June 2020

Another problem that will become apparent with more people at home for longer is energy use. It’s fairly affordable to run heating at night time when everyone is home from work and school. It becomes less so when it needs to be on all day to keep warm.

As a result of increased bills and awareness around energy usage, there could be a greater desire for natural light and energy efficient features within the home.

area that is close to amenity has always been desirable and still is, but the amenity requirements may have shifted post COVID-19. Before, many had the preference to be close to nightlife and cafes. Now it may be green areas and walking trails that are most desirable. Some of the best parks are in the inner city, or far out in the country, whereas some suburban estates lack quality parks and gardens. Being close to the ocean or a body of water has always been popular but will become even more so post COVID-19.

Something that was highly valued previously, especially in the inner city suburbs, was having a car space or two. These have still been valued during the pandemic, but for different reasons. Instead of a secure spot for a car to stay overnight, many garages and carspaces in apartment blocks have been converted into home gyms. With cars left on the street, or simply being unused, many people are questioning whether having a car, or more than one car, is worth it.

The demographic of people that comprise most of the neighbourhood is crucial too. When walking around, even if it's just to the mailbox at the front of our homes, we want to feel a sense of safety and community. Being at home more may have highlighted how important this is. Having the chance to walk past a neighbour’s house and say hello over the fence is something we may value more than ever into the future.

Even when life returns to “normal”, it’s likely that the use of some garages will change. More people could decide that it’s possible to get by without a car after all. Instead of using the garage as a car safe haven, it could be turned into a gym, a home office or a retreat area for the kids.

Just like open plan living, backyards have become less desirable in recent years. They require too much work that many don’t have time for. The shortages at the beginning of the pandemic brought attention to the fact that there could be

Whereas garages had a change of use during the pandemic, the kitchen was perhaps used more than ever before. With no restaurants or cafes open, and many of us having to tighten up spending, all of us have had to get used to preparing our own food at home. Using the kitchen full time has meant that we are constantly reminded of any issues or inconveniences that might have been easy to ignore previously. If the oven isn’t working properly or if the kitchen is small and poorly laid out, it will have been highlighted. Many have learnt new cooking skills with the extra time available at home. Any limitations, in terms of lack of equipment or lack of space, would have become obvious. Having a well functioning, spacious kitchen has become essential.

It’s likely that many will choose to upgrade their kitchen into the future. If looking for a new home, spacious and quality kitchens, with energy efficient appliances, will become highly sought after. The second aspect to consider is the home’s external environment. This includes not only the immediate area outside the home, but also the suburb as a whole. Living in an

Kitchens are now used more frequently than pre-COVID-19 times. Source: Pexels

SHIFTING PREFERENCES

Secret Agent

Shifting Preferences Vol.91 May/June 2020

food supply issues in the future. Moving forward, being able to grow our own food in the backyard, could see them regain some popularity. Those that didn’t have a backyard to spend time in during the pandemic could now desire one, especially if they were also living in a suburb that lacked green space. Communal outdoor spaces have become the norm in the modern day apartment building. In some cases they replace private balconies. There may be a shift away from these within the apartment market. Older style buildings with private outdoor spaces will continue to grow in demand by both renters and investors. WHERE WE WORK Some industries require a permanent address in order to conduct business. Many industries do not. They can be adapted to an online environment. This doesn’t mean that they are most suited to this though.

COVID-19 allowed many employers and employees to trial remote working. Working from home has some benefits, the main one being the extra free time gained since there is no need to commute. However, more time doesn’t mean increased productivity. In many cases it can result in less actual time if it’s spent by sleeping in and slacking off more during the day since it’s possible to put off work to later into the evening. Getting to sleep in and work at home without anyone watching may be exciting at first. It’s fun whilst it’s new but it quickly gets old. There are increased distractions at home, and it can be hard to block these out. It’s easy to end up in the kitchen each hour instead of at the computer, or scrolling through social media for hours instead of getting work done. Without a dedicated work space like a home office, it can be harder to separate work life from home life. When the home becomes the office full time, unfinished work is harder to leave behind once 5pm comes around. The feeling of ‘always working’ is common. Collaboration also gets more difficult when everyone is working from home. It’s a lot harder to connect properly through technology. Those chance encounters that happen in the office are impossible. Random opportunities to create and share ideas generally happen less without face-to-face connection.

There may be a rise in the number of workplaces allowing more employees to work remotely on a permanent basis as a result of COVID-19. However it’s likely that many will go back to normal or working from home will be a part time arrangement for a day or two a week. Having a dedicated space for a home office could boom as a result. Even if it’s not used full time, having it there will be valued.

Working from home has been touted as about to take over the old way of doing business for many years now. It’s suggested that going to a physical office will become a thing of the past. This seems unlikely. While more flexible working situations may become more common, commercial centres have constantly found ways to be more dense. Knowledge creation happens in dense clusters of industry and this is a key determinant of economic success. (Storper, 2003) “Clusters provide a context where economic actors with complementary but often ambiguous and incomplete information can find partners and exchange this information.” (Cortright, 2006) It seems likely that density and face-to-face contact are here to stay. WHERE WE CHOOSE TO LIVE For the past decade or more, urbanisation has been a theme across the world. People want to live near where the opportunities are as a priority. They are attracted to places to live where employment and incomes are good, where the education is reputable for their future offspring or for themselves to up-skill. Younger generations are perhaps looking for a combination between education, job opportunities, and nightlife. Initially, COVID-19 equalised the city and the suburbs. With everything shut down, the vibrant, action-packed cities became just like a regular suburb. In fact, it allowed the suburbs to shine for a second since those living there likely had bigger houses and more space to enjoy. There could be a change in preferences when it comes to where we choose to live, with more urban dwellers recognising the limitations and choosing to move back to the suburbs. However, this also seems unlikely. COVID-19 is not a permanent event. The cities and the inner suburbs will spring to life again in the future and the people living there will enjoy the many things that drove them to move there in the first place. They’re used to less space already so it’s likely that they haven’t even missed it. You don’t know what you don’t know.

SHIFTING PREFERENCES

Secret Agent

Shifting Preferences Vol.91 May/June 2020

We may see a greater appreciation for green environments close to urban areas, such as the Capital City Trail. Source: Urban List Melbourne (theurbanlist.com)

Plus with less traffic on the roads resulting in less pollution, the city wasn’t such a bad place to be during quarantine.

Cities will still be desirable places to live. What will become more important is access to nature within these areas. Being able to walk to a park or water bodies has always been valued. This value is going to increase post-COVID-19. Those that have been able to easily go for walks in parks or green environments will have a greater appreciation for them. Those that have not, will likely be feeling the lack even more. The properties that have direct access or views of nature, will become more desirable comparatively, especially those that are located in urban areas. CONCLUSION COVID-19 will change not only the economic conditions within our communities, but also the many preferences that people had leading up COVID-19. There are numerous commentators calling the end of the city and the way we work, but long-term trends are hard to dislodge. Remember, many felt that same way in Hong Kong after the SARS outbreak. There are significant benefits to density due to the scaling benefits that cities create; and cities are always reinventing

themselves, generally for the best, by learning from the shocks that come along.

It’s likely that the “change" to occur will be a deviation rather than an outright reversal of current trends. Globalisation could be argued to now be in retreat. But it’s unlikely that we, here in Australia, will all move to the countryside and take up farming. Instead, many will change their preferences by doing things such as swapping their inner city apartment for a terrace close to parklands. Businesses might seek to have less office space while improving the location of the space. Of course, the economic reality that emerges in the aftermath of the virus will help shape things more greatly. While the virus financially impacts the majority in a negative fashion, there will be winners that benefit greatly from these shifting preferences. What we have tried to articulate is that some trends will just be amplified from this event, while others will deviate along the same lines, and other trends will be completely new and are likely unpredictable at this stage.

SHIFTING PREFERENCES

Secret Agent

Shifting Preferences Vol.91 May/June 2020 Words by Jodie Walker Design by Sheng Yi Lee

info@secretagent.com.au (+61) 3 9349 4333

REFERENCES Cortright, 2006, Making sense of clusters: Regional competitiveness and economic development. Lally, 2010, How are habits formed: Modelling habit formation in the real world, European Journal of Social Psychology. Storper, M., and A. J. Venables. 2003. “Buzz: Face-to-Face Contact and the Urban Economy.” London: Center for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Secret Agent

DEVELOPER INSIGHTS: NEW APARTMENTS

REA Developer Insights

Information/communication needs

Downsizer -

realestate.com.au is the main source of research (68%) for new properties as well as friends/family (52%).

New Apartments

63% intend to visit apartment developer display suites as part of their buying journey.

Age

13%

43%

Under 35s

35-54

New home designs/floorplan options (62%), and property inclusions and options (52%) are the preferred communication from agents/developers.

44%

Special offers relating to a price discount (e.g. $5,000 off) are most appealing (63%) followed by property upgrades for free (e.g. premium flooring (49%) and appliance upgrades for free (49%).

55+

Family structure

Home ownership

46%

39%

11%

Own your home outright (no mortage)

Own your home (paying off a mortage)

Rent (pay rent)

Live with friends/relatives (rent free)

Current property

78%

A stand-alone house

35%

38%

Couple living with children

Couple living with no children

Living alone

13%

Living with house mates (not relatives)

Single parent with children

9% an apartment 1%

An apartment (up to 3 stories)

An apartment (with 4-6 stories)

An apartment (with 7+ stories)

A town house/ home

A unit or villa

Most popular apartment features

What are they To move within a 21km radius from their current property

seeking?

Average budget of $624,000

Middle suburbs or the fringe of a CBD location

Noise cancelling technology

Integrated air conditioning systems

Upgraded floor coverings

Most popular apartment features

What are they seeking?

13%

An apartment (with 7+ stories)

To move within a 21km radius from their current property

Average budget of $899,000

Middle suburbs and CBD

Private entrance

Integrated air conditioning systems

Noise cancelling technology

Most popular apartment features

What are they To move within a 18km radius from their current property

seeking?

Average budget of just under $700,000

Middle suburbs or the fringe of a CBD location

Integrated air conditioning systems

Noise cancelling technology

Upgraded kitchen appliances

Most popular apartment features

What are they seeking?

11%

An apartment (with 7+ stories)

Preference for less than 20 apartments in a block and up to 3 stories

Average budget of around $740,000

Integrated air conditioning systems

Noise cancelling technology

Home automation

Most popular development features Middle suburbs or the fringe of a CBD location

2-3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms 2 car spaces

Building security

Onsite pool/ gym

Green features

Data source: realestate.com.au 2020 New Home Buyer Research

REA Developer Insights

2020 NEW

FIRST HOME BUYERS

APARTMENT

BUYER RESEACH Research conducted by independent agency, HoneyComb Strategy

ONSITE BEHAVIOUR ANALYSIS

Analysis of leads submitted via project enquiry form between 1 Jan- 30 Jun 2019; 51,539 leads set to new (developer) property listing over a 6 month period.

UPSIZERS

1,001 new apartment buyers

INVESTORS

DOWNSIZERS

BUYERS PREFERENCES FEATURES SOUGHT

REA Developer Insights

SEARCHES COMMONLY INCLUDE MINIMUM BEDROOMS AND MAX PRICE

35%

of searches filter bathrooms - most commonly 1+ (12%) or 2+ (21%)

69% of searches filter bedrooms -8% studio; 9% min 1 bed, 33% min 2 beds, 13% min 3 beds - most don’t include a max, but with 2 or 3 the most common (24%)

80%

of searches don’t include a min. price

38%

of searches don’t include a max. price

Source: Adobe Analytics, Feb 1-29 Feb 2020, total searches for new construction and property type = apartment or unit

THE COMPOSITION OF APARTMENT DEVELOPMENTS REFLECTS SMALLER COMPLEXES; EVEN IN TALLER BUILDINGS, BUYERS PREFERENCE FEWER APARTMENTS Number of apartments in complex

29%

77%

23%

15%

21-30

22% 9%

31-50

REA Developer Insights

3 storeys or under

21%

11-20

More than 80

(multi response)

42%

10 or under

51-80

Storeys sought

Preference Actual

4-6 storeys

54%

55+ (68%)

10% 4% 6%

7+ storeys

45%

NSW (49%)

10% 10%

TYPICALLY METRO APARTMENT

R A D I U S O F C O N S I D E R AT I O N – A PA R T M E N T B U Y E R S I N V I C

SEEKERS WILL SEARCH ~20KM FROM

THEIR HOME –SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE WEST (24KM)

31.4km Rural Victoria 19.1km Melbourne North 19km Melbourne Outer East 24.1km Melbourne West

15.6km Melbourne Inner

20.7km Melbourne South East

E6. How far away from your current home are you planning / were you prepared to buy / build? REA New Homes 2019. Apartment buyers in Victoria n=249; Melbourne Inner n=146, Melbourne South East n=32, Melbourne West n=27*, Melbourne North n=17*, Melbourne Outer East n=17*, Rural Victoria n=14*. *Indicative only due to sample size.

FOCUS ON: SUSTAINABILITY KEY TAKE OUT: SUSTAINABILITY IS IMPORTANT, BUT AN EXPECTATION FOR MOST, RATHER THAN A VALUE-ADD

REA Developer Insights

FOCUS ON: WELLNESS KEY TAKE OUT: WE DON’T NEED TO OVER COMPLICATE WELLNESS. IT’S ABOUT GOOD DESIGN OF BASIC FEATURES FOR MOST.

WELLNESS IS IMPORTANT, BUT IT’S

80%

Feel it’s more important than ever to look after yourself mentally and physically

NOT ALL ABOUT WELLNESS SPECIFIC FEATURES

1 in 3 Are seeking wellness features (e.g. circadian lighting, water filtration)

REA Developer Insights

WHEN WE TALK TO BUYERS things

THEY SAID IT’S ABOUT GOOD

everything greenery

design

features

QUALITY LIVING, FEELING

residents

quiet

term

GOOD, HEALTH

green

means sure spaces also pool

place

areas

make able

”Wellness in homes - its about homes that are developed for the health of the residents”

development

wellness

energy solar

friendly wellbeing designed

much

look

comfort

people

healthy

property environment lots feeling quality live safety lot

ability

happy

physical

good

important

outdoor

amenities

facilities safe access positive

peace

properties

pools

physically free

unsure

building water well ideacomfortable feel etc

parks

community

like materials open space

none exercise

built

health

sustainable

build area communal

living

new

home clean

promote

options

better

know

great

security sustainability

WELLNESS TO BUYERS IS…

A PA R T M E N T D E V E LO P M E N T F E AT U R E S

Safety

SOUGHT (TOP 12)

Physical health

Security features

54%

Onsite gym / pool

45%

Green features

42%

Access to larger outdoor spaces

38%

Pet friendly complex

34%

Built using innovative / sustainable materials Resident services

20%

Unique or award winning design / architecture

19%

Share car facilities for residents Onsite bar / restaurant

26%

17% 14%

Communal exercise / running classes

14%

Access to function spaces

13%

REA Developer Insights

within

mentally life mental natural gyms mean lifestyle light air nothing gym

WELLNESS IS ACHIEVED THROUGH DEVELOPMENT FEATURES

noise

Community Connection

Comfort Nature Healthy mind

S o u r c e : r e a l e s t a t e . c o m . a u

Views per for sale listings, Melbourne SA4 regions, Sep 2020

Year-on-year change in views per for sale listings, Melbourne SA4 regions, Sep 2020

Mornington Peninsula

3064

Melbourne - West

712

Melbourne - South East Melbourne - Outer East

2792

Melbourne - Inner South

1778

500

REA Developer Insights

1000

Melbourne - Inner

1332 1500

-26.9%

Melbourne - Inner East-33.6%

1517

THANK YOU

-12.1%

Melbourne - North East -32.0%

Melbourne - Inner South

Melbourne - Inner

-17.9%

Melbourne - North West

1162

Melbourne - Inner East

-14.1%

Melbourne - Outer East

1077

Melbourne - North East

-18.5%

Melbourne - South East

1110

Melbourne - North West

35.6%

2000

2500

3000

3500

-25.1% -40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Build Better, Faster and More Efficiently with the Right Team Written by Luke Hartman, Managing Director, Creation Homes, 02 8806 7600, lhartman@creationhomes.com.au, www.creationhomes.com.au

Developers, and their customers at all levels of the price spectrum, rightly expect quality workmanship and attention to detail in their finished product; this result can only be achieved through supplier and trade relationships that share this vision, as well as a deep understanding of the end user experience. Creation Homes has over a decade of experience in delivering high quality medium density projects for Melbourne’s top developers.

Some of the key areas where engaging early with your builder is

An important element for a quality outcome is delivering a project on time and on budget. In our experience, any delays to a project once site works have commenced can result in additional costs and a reduced customer experience, and in many cases these delays can easily be avoided with the right planning well before the first slab is poured. This is why the earlier that your project team, including your builder, can be involved in the development process, the better the final outcome – both in quality and financials.

consequent reduction in forecast revenues. Early engagement

advantageous: 1) When purchasing a site, it is vital that both a realistic budget and a comprehensive scope are allowed in the project feasibility. This stage doesn’t require a full cost assessment, however square metre rates and actual costs from similar delivered projects can assist with these inputs. 2) Appointing a high calibre consultant team to be involved in the project. For example, a trusted and results focussed Building Surveyor and Engineer will be constructive, instead of reactive, to the project (if coming in too late). Employing a team who have similar values and relevant experience in delivering quality homes, will ensure that they give you the required advice before and during the build, with a step-by-step plan to help alleviate any hurdles throughout the process. 3) Buildability and value management advice during the town planning design phase can significantly reduce costs with no also allows for the exploration of new technologies, prefabricated products, alternative materials and sustainability measures. 4) Setting the final budget and program is as important as sticking to it. Any ideas or unique measures you wish to employ on your project are best designed and allowed for upfront. 5) Site investigations, obtaining the necessary permits ahead of time, and early works contracts (whereby a head-start can be gained on site) won’t result in additional costs, but will result in less unknowns and therefore less potential variations. Building positive relationships early with adjacent neighbours and local authorities is beneficial for all stakeholders. 6) Invest early in the project documentation, so that your builder is aware of all aspects of the project from below the ground and up. This will also ensure that your project documentation is accurate, and represents a true reflection of how you (and the marketing collateral) envisage the project to look, feel and be finished. Managing these items with your project team as soon as possible are guaranteed to produce a superior outcome. Creation Homes builds over 2,000 homes each year Australia-wide and have expertly designed a formula that ensures every project meets its program and budget.

Creation Homes

Past Project Profile

Wattle on the Park 2 Wattle Grove, McKinnon

Price Range $1,395,000 - $1,639,500

Apartment Type

No.

% of Total

Average Size per m2

Average Price per m2

Average Price

3 Bed, 2 Bath + PR

179.5

$7,435

$1,334,500

4 Bed, 3 Bath

247.0

$6,100

$1,507,667

Past Project Profile

835 835 High Street, Armadale

Price Range $975,000 - $7,500,000

Apartment Type

No.

% of Total

Average Size per m2

Average Price per m2

Average Price

2 Bed, 2 Bath

97.0

$11,528

$1,122,917

2 Bed, 2 Bath + PR

145.0

$13,103

$1,900,000

3 Bed, 2 Bath + Study and PR

175.0

$11,842

$2,072,500

3 Bed, 2 Bath

148.0

$13,486

$1,981,667

3 Bed, 3 Bath + Study

180.5

$13,181

$2,372,500

3 Bed, 4 Bath + Study

248.0

$17,167

$4,300,000

3 Bed, 3 Bath + 2 Study and PR

318.0

$23,216

$7,375,000

Past Project Profile

St James Park 1a Yarra Street, Hawthorn

Price Range $1,350,000 - $4,725,000

Apartment Type

No.

% of Total

Average Size per m2

Average Price per m2

Average Price

2 Bed, 2 Bath

108.5

$12,650

$1,372,000

3 Bed, 2 Bath

142.0

$14,049

$1,995,000

3 Bed, 3 Bath

170.3

$17,165

$2,901,145

3 Bed, 3 Bath + Study

170.0

$18,206

$3,095,000

Past Project Profile

Rose & Bird 14 Adori Place, Maribyrnong

Apartment Type

No.

% of Total

Average Size per m2

Average Price per m2

Average Price

3 Bed, 2 Bath + PR

159.3

$5,430

$863,615

4 Bed, 3 Bath

171.6

$5,133

$881,190

4 Bed, 2 Bath + PR

160.9

$5,499

$884,625

Price Range $737,500 - $895,000

Celebrating over 1 4 0 Successful Sell Outs Since the inception of Marshall White Projects in 2013 weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ve attempted to provide a insight into the ever changing world of property development by sharing the hard earnt lessons of those in the field and generous enough to share their experiences for the betterment of their peers. Marshall White Projects has evolved as a team, maturing in a market where buyers learn to expect more than ever before whilst developers must work harder to achieve the same results. They say knowledge is power, so we invite you to click on the button below and enjoy the resource of our first publication through to today.

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+61 3 9832 1191 1111 HIGH STREET, ARMADALE VIC 3143