The Lie Of The Land

how the land lies

As usual we check in with Construction Information Services (CIS) to get the latest. And as usual it makes for some interesting reading as we look at the third quarter of the year.

Figure 1 ROI Plans Submitted

Throughout the summer period, construction in Ireland saw a slight decline at a planning stage, following a challenging quarter and disruptive industry conditions.

However, the number of projects on site, saw a positive trend to accompany an uptake in planning applications over the last 18 months.

CIS has observed an interesting trend regarding the commencements of residential units, consistent with the government’s phasing out of SHD applications – which will likely become more notable throughout Q4 2022.

Republic of Ireland overview

In the Republic of Ireland, we saw a total investment of €8.02bn in plans submitted across residential, non-residential and civil sectors.

The number of projects submitted saw a decline of 30% in the residential sector.

It must be taken into account that the decline in residential plans submitted is following a particularly large volume throughout Q2 2022, and is still up 19.6%, on the same quarter last year.

CIS observed an overall decline in plans granted across residential, non-residential and civil sectors, moving into Q4, despite having a positive upswing in civil construction activity over Q3 in the past few years. The total value of projects getting the green light in Q3 fell from €4.94bn in Q2, to €3.91bn.

Increase

As expected, projects start saw a sharp increase during the summer

Figure 2 ROI Plans Granted

Figure 3 ROI Projects Started

CIS activity analysis Q3 2022

period amounting to €1.54bn in residential, €828m in non-residential and €188m in civil projects.

Activity increased by a total average of 29.6% with a value of €2.56bn over €1.97bn in Q2.

This is however a decrease on last year’s figure in the same period of €3.1bn.

General consensus is good in terms of project start despite industry impeding factors and mixed outlook on the forecast of the construction and relating industries in the near future.

Residential activity in the Republic of Ireland saw growth compared to the same period YoY. Total projects increased by 8.7% by volume equalling to a project value of €4.76bn (+24.8% YoY).

This increase could in part be the result of the gradual phasing out of SHD (Strategic Housing Developments) throughout the end of 2021 along with the ever-growing public demand for social housing and increase of unit delivery. The total number of units proposed equalled 22.2k, an increase of 16.4% compared to Q3 2021 which reflects the steady swing of proposals we’ve seen throughout the year to date.

In terms of projects getting the green light, numbers saw a slight decline on the yearly axis.

Plans granted in Q3 2021 were 12.7% higher than Q3 this year – which may have a myriad of reasons but more than likely is due to the country having a large uptick in planning following the pandemic, resulting in slightly inflated numbers compared to this year, where numbers are returning to baseline.

The total value of the projects was 26.3% lower than Q3 2021 at €1.79bn, a sharp decline but likely a sign of a return to baseline construction activity – as we have observed a gentle upswing in the overall trend for 2022 so far.

Project starts throughout 2022 have observed numerous setbacks with market stressors such as material shortages, European political situations and cost of fuels.

The health of the sector reflects with as overall project starts decreased YoY but showed higher value – which can be attributed to larger projects having the scope to continue while smaller projects struggle to get things o the ground.

The number of units started also saw a decrease of 13.6% (over Q3 2021) which could be attributed to the issues previously mentioned but also taking into account the phased nature of some of these larger scale projects.

It also could be related to a number of SHDs that did not achieve granted status following the winding down of such schemes and associated rush to get planning submitted before that deadline. CIS supplies accurate project data which can be analysed by stage of development (pipeline, active, and delivered), construction type (new build, refurbishment, change of use), and funding source, with detailed analysis of direct and indirect exchequer public capital investment.

CIS data allows you to track and monitor pipeline and active construction trends either nationally or across specific sectors and regions. Decision makers can also forecast market prospects for their specific product or service.

For a free demonstration of our system or to enquire about our data, please call +353 1 2999 200 or email sales@cisireland.com.

Data observed and published by Pat McGrath & Josh Wiler of Construction Information Services