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a message from dave hawkins & michael day
first quarter in review city of alexandria old town potomac greens/potomac yard alexandria west del ray arlandria eisenhower landmark/cameron station braddock heights/beverley hills rosemont seminary ridge northridge alexandria mount vernon belle haven hybla valley hunington fort hunt franconia kingstowne
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Dave Hawkins & Michael Day Executive Vice Presidents and Managing Brokers McEnearney Associates REALTORSÂŽ, Inc. dhawkins@mcenearney.com | mday@mcenearney.com +1 703 549 9292 MARKET REPORT | 2
2018 first quarter review The 2018 Alexandria real estate market is off to a good start! Most key market indicators for the City of Alexandria and for Alexandria South – the portions of Fairfax County with an Alexandria address – were positive in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of 2016. As you’ll see in this report, there was in increase in the number of homes sold and the average sales price; homes sold a bit closer to their original list price and sold, on average, in about the same number of days. Specifically, there was a 7.8% increase in the number of homes sold in the City of Alexandria, and a 12% increase in the average sales price. Homes sold, on average, .3% closer to the original list price but took 4 days longer to sell. In Alexandria South, there was a 10.9% decrease in the number of but an almost 3.6% increase in the average sales price. Homes sold on average for 97.3% of their original price and in just 50 days, down from 52 days last year. Each area can see different market dynamics, so you’ll find an analysis of the performance of detached homes, attached homes and condos for the 18 communities that make this such a wonderful place to live. The biggest headwind last year was inventory, and that continues to be the case so far this year. In 2017, the overall number of homes on the market was consistently 20% less than 2016, and the first quarter of 2018 saw 12% less inventory than Q1 2017. The shortage was particularly acute – 20% fewer homes - for homes priced under $500,000. Shorter supply combined with significant demand drives up
prices. That’s great for sellers, but the low inventory combined with rising interest rates makes it tougher, especially for firsttime homebuyers. We see more of the same for 2018. We expect it to be another strong year in Alexandria, but even in this seller’s market we won’t see a resurgence in listing inventory. And that lack of inventory will hold down the number of homes sold. Even though mortgage rates are rising, they are still very low from any historical perspective – but we think that some of the upward pressure on home prices will ease a bit in 2018. The wildcard for 2018 will be the impact of the tax reform legislation. With the cap on deductibility of state and local taxes and the diminished value of the mortgage interest deduction for expensive homes, it is likely that upper end home prices won’t go up as much as they would have had reform not passed. However, the overall tax decreases for most wage earners will put money in their pockets, particularly for millennials who may thinking about buying their first home. This should help with student loan debt, saving for a down payment and/or increased spending – and that’s good for real estate. Although it’s too soon to tell, we think the tax reform legislation in 2018 will have a modest, net positive impact on Alexandria’s real estate market. We hope you find this information useful, and we invite you to connect with any of our terrific McEnearney Associates is we can help with you real estate needs!
David Howell Executive Vice President and CIO McEnearney Associates REALTORS®, Inc. dhowell@mcenearney.com +1 703 738 9513
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