Product & Portfolio Strategy Group
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income | Volatility | Taxes November 2014 (Data as of October 31, 2014)
eatonvance.com/marketmonitor
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
Table of Contents Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor presents a concise review of economic and asset class data through clear and impactful charts. Providing timely information across a broad array of markets and investment topics, this guide serves as a helpful resource in providing connectivity between changing market events and implications for investor portfolios. Use Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor as a critical desk reference that enables more informed discussion and understanding of financial markets. Economic Review
2
5
Inflation Watch
11
Income Markets
13
Equity Markets
22
Alternative Markets
34
Flows Monitor
40
Additional Information
41
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
List of Exhibits Income Markets
Economic Review Global Growth
5
Fixed Income Characteristics and Performance Analysis
13
U.S. Yields
6
Fixed Income Spread Analysis
14
Global Government Bond Yields
7
Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market Update
15
U.S. Federal and Personal Finances
8
High Yield Corporate Bond Market Update
16
U.S. Corporate Finances
9
Floating-Rate Loan Market Update
17
Municipal Bond Market Update
18
Emerging Markets Bond Market Update
19
Fixed Income Asset Class Return Analysis (tabular)
20
Fixed Income Asset Class Return Analysis (chart)
21
U.S. Housing and Unemployment
10
Inflation Watch
3
Global Inflation
11
Central Bank Target Rates
12
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
List of Exhibits Flows Monitor
Equity Markets
Fund Flows by Category
22
Dividend Analysis
23
Valuation Analysis
24
Additional Information
Regional/Style Valuation Analysis
25
Glossary of Terms
41
S&P 500 Sector Valuation Analysis
26
About Risk
43
S&P 500 Index Return Analysis
27
About Eaton Vance
44
S&P 500 Index Sectors Return Analysis
29
For More Information
45
MSCI World Index Sectors Return Analysis
30
Global Equity Characteristics & Sector Weights
31
Equity Asset Class Return Analysis (tabular)
32
Equity Asset Class Return Analysis (chart)
33
Alternative Markets
4
40
Equity Performance and Volatility Analysis
Developed Market Currency Performance & Interest Rates
34
Emerging Market Currency Performance & Interest Rates
35
Local Sovereign Interest Rates
37
Commodities Return Analysis
38
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Not FDIC Insured • Not Bank Guaranteed • May Lose Value
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Economic Review
Global Growth
EM has exhibited higher GDP growth over the years than Developed Markets Developed Markets Real GDP Growth
Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth
% Change YOY
% Change YOY
16%
16%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2%
-4%
-4%
-6%
-6%
-8%
-8% '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 est. '14 Developed Markets Avg. United Kingdom Eurozone
United States Japan
Source: International Monetary Fund and Bureau of Economic Analysis as of 10/31/14
5
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 est. '14 Emerging Markets Avg. Russia China Source: International Monetary Fund as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Brazil India
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Economic Review
U.S. Yields
Short-term rates remain low; Yields across the Treasury curve fell month-over-month U.S. Treasury Yields
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
18%
6%
16% 5% 14% 12%
4%
10% 3% 8% 6%
2%
4% 1% 2% 0%
0% 3M
2Y
5Y
Source: Bloomberg as of 10/31/14
6
10Y
30Y
Oct-14
Sep-14
Dec-12
Dec-10
Dec-08
Dec-06
'53 '56 '59 '62 '65 '68 '71 '74 '77 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13
Source: Federal Reserve as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Economic Review
Global Government Bond Yields
10-year government bond yields have generally declined 10-Year Government Bond Yields Greece
10-Year Government Bond Yields 35%
8.1%
New Zealand
4.0%
Australia
3.3%
Portugal
3.2%
Italy
30%
2.4%
United States
2.3%
United Kingdom
2.2%
Spain
2.1%
Norway
2.1%
Canada
2.1%
Ireland
25%
20%
1.7%
Sweden
1.2%
France
1.2%
Belgium
1.1%
Denmark
1.1%
Austria
1.0%
Netherlands
1.0%
Finland
1.0%
Germany
0.8%
Switzerland
15%
10%
5%
0.5%
Japan
0.5% 0%
0% 5%
10%
15%
20%
'88
'90
'92
'94
Germany Source: Thomson Reuters as of 10/31/14
7
'96
'98
'00
'02
United Kingdom
Source: Bloomberg as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
'04
'06 Japan
'08
'10
'12
Greece
'14
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Economic Review
U.S. Federal and Personal Finances
Continuous government spending remains status quo, while the rate of savings fluctuates U.S. Personal Savings Rate and Household Debt Service Ratio (% of disposable annual income)
U.S. Federal Budget and Debt (% of GDP) 140%
10% Budget Surplus / Deficit
16%
Federal Debt
5%
120%
0%
14%
12% 100%
-5% 10% 80%
-10%
8% -15%
60% 6%
-20% 40% 4%
-25% 20%
-30% -35%
0% '41
'49
'57
'65
'73
'81
'89
'97
'05
'13
2%
0% '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 Personal Savings Rate
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget as of 10/31/14
8
Source: Federal Reserve as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Household Debt Service Ratio
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Economic Review
U.S. Corporate Finances
Corporate America has benefited, as revenues and earnings increase S&P 500 Earnings and Revenues Per Share $120
$1,200 Earnings per Share
Revenues per Share $1,100
$100
$1,000 $80 $900 $60 $800 $40 $700
$20
$600
$0
$500 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
Source: Baseline as of 10/31/14
9
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
'13
est. '14
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Economic Review
U.S. Housing and Unemployment
Home prices have risen; unemployment and payroll data has improved U.S. Median Existing Home Prices
U.S. Unemployment and Jobs 14%
$250
142,000 Total Jobs
Unemployment Rate $230
140,000
12% 138,000
$210 10%
136,000 134,000
8%
$170
132,000 $150
6%
130,000
$130
128,000
4% $110
126,000 2%
$90
124,000 0%
$70 '93
'95
'97
'99
Source: Standard & Poor’s as of 10/31/14
10
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
122,000 '03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
'12
'13
'14
Thousands
Thousands
$190
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Inflation Watch
Global Inflation
Inflation is low in most developed countries; EM average inflation has hovered around 6% Emerging Markets Inflation
Developed Markets Inflation
% Change YOY
% Change YOY 22%
22%
20%
20%
18%
18%
16%
16%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
-2%
-2% '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 est. '14 Developed Markets Avg. Eurozone Japan United Kingdom United States
Source: International Monetary Fund, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as of 10/31/14
11
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 est. '14 Emerging Markets Avg. Brazil Russia India China Source: International Monetary Fund as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Inflation Watch
Central Bank Target Rates
Banks continue to anchor short-term rates near zero Bank of England
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Bank of Japan 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
'73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 Source: Bank of England as of 10/31/14
'73 '75 '77 '79 '81 '83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 Source: Bank of Japan as of 10/31/14
European Central Bank 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Source: European Central Bank as of 10/31/14
12
U.S. Federal Reserve Bank
'83 '85 '87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 Source: Federal Reserve as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Fixed Income Characteristics and Performance Analysis Premium price valuations exist in current environment Averages
Total Returns (%)
Coupon (%)
Price ($)
Yield (%)
Maturity (yrs.)
Duration (yrs.)
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
3.29
105.5
2.24
7.7
5.6
0.98
1.40
5.12
4.14
2.73
4.22
4.64
U.S. Treasury
2.08
103.5
1.38
6.6
5.4
0.97
1.48
4.07
2.78
1.64
3.45
4.24
U.S. Agency
2.47
104.4
1.31
4.7
3.7
0.63
0.97
3.04
2.45
1.48
2.52
3.78
U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities
3.83
105.6
2.72
6.9
4.7
0.97
1.75
5.23
4.08
2.40
3.53
4.71
U.S. Asset Backed Securities
1.89
101.6
1.32
2.8
2.5
0.51
0.69
1.84
1.84
1.84
3.26
3.36
U.S. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities
4.17
104.7
2.25
4.7
4.2
0.92
0.93
3.32
3.13
4.90
7.89
5.22
U.S. Investment Grade Corporate
4.47
108.4
3.03
10.6
7.2
1.02
1.00
6.68
6.29
4.92
6.47
5.49
U.S. Aggregate Local Authorities
1.87
11.63
10.62
6.05
7.65
6.31
Index Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index
5.13
117.1
3.41
18.1
9.5
1.34
Barclays Municipal Bond Index
4.84
108.6
2.11
13.4
6.6
0.69
2.01
8.32
7.82
4.93
5.26
4.71
BofAML US Inflation-Linked Treasury Index
1.18
107.4
0.21
9.5
6.9
0.98
-1.17
5.21
2.29
1.06
4.54
4.69
BofAML Preferred Index (Fixed Rate)
6.38
102.7
4.74
-
6.0
1.61
2.20
14.19
12.45
7.28
9.31
2.69
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index
6.94
102.4
5.83
6.5
4.3
1.19
0.64
4.72
5.82
9.39
10.44
8.26
S&P / LSTA Leveraged Loan Index JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) JPMorgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) Diversified JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-U.S. Index
-
98.2
5.07
-
0.1
0.26
-0.19
2.38
3.36
5.74
6.40
5.08
6.83
108.0
5.54
-
7.8
2.08
-0.14
9.39
7.19
6.07
7.92
8.38
5.44
103.6
4.86
-
5.9
1.17
1.14
8.26
7.63
-
-
-
6.88
-
6.41
-
4.8
1.56
-3.16
1.56
-2.68
0.90
4.55
8.60
3.00
111.0
1.26
8.7
7.1
-0.68
-4.74
-0.77
-2.53
-0.78
1.45
3.74
BofAML U.K. Gilts Index
3.86
115.6
2.09
15.0
10.2
0.06
-1.20
5.30
6.23
3.52
5.13
4.36
BofAML European Union Government Bond Index
3.60
116.6
1.27
10.1
7.7
-0.41
-3.58
1.36
2.43
4.25
2.69
4.81
Source: Barclays, JPMorgan, BofA Merrill Lynch and Standard & Poor’s as of 10/31/14 13
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Fixed Income Spread Analysis (bps)
Compression of spreads trending below average levels
300
240%
276
220%
250 219
2500 High
1581
1600 209%
1971
2000
1400
200%
1717
192
150 100 50
180% 160%
800
140%
600
120%
400
100% 4 10Y TIPS Breakeven
80%
1018
1000
200
102 98%
0
1500
618
180
192
33
57
Agency
10Y TIPS Muni Break-Even Ratio (%)
Cheap
1000
16
-13
250 143 27
224 175 118 116 116 76 35
865
Rich
97
55 53
0
MBS
ABS
CMBS
Corporate
MBS
ABS
CMBS
Corporate
230 0
483 216
234
-3
311 149
Taxable FloatingPreferred Muni/BABs Rate Loans
415
322 233
Preferred Floating- Emerging Rate Markets Loans (USD)
Taxable Muni/BABs
Agency
508
500
-200
30Y Muni Ratio
Low
562
9
84%
Current Avg
1699
1200
200
0
1800
High Yield
Emerging Markets High Yield (USD)
Max Spread Date
3/22/05
12/18/08
11/20/08
12/3/08
1/6/09
11/21/08
12/3/08
4/29/09
3/9/09
12/19/08
10/24/08
12/16/08
Min Spread Date
5/23/07
11/20/08
1/29/07
3/12/13
7/27/10
10/1/09
12/08/04
3/11/05
12/28/04
3/8/06
3/31/06
6/1/07
Spread on 12/31/13
224
106
17
34
55
126
114
133
286
466
334
382
Spread on 12/31/12
245
96
13
50
43
124
141
140
242
529
248
511
Spread on 12/31/11
196
123
33
75
99
308
234
189
315
633
377
699
Source: Barclays, JPMorgan, BofA Merrill Lynch, Standard & Poor’s and U.S. Dept. of the Treasury as of 10/31/14. Spread history measures past 10 years.
14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. All spreads are in basis points and measure option-adjusted yield spread relative to comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries with the exception of floating-rate loans, which is the average discounted spread over Libor. Agency represented by Barclays U.S. Agency Index. MBS represented by Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index. ABS represented by Barclays U.S. Asset Backed Securities (ABS) Index. CMBS represented by Barclays U.S. CMBS Investment Grade Index. Corporate represented by Barclays U.S. Corporate Index. Taxable Muni/BABs represented by Barclays U.S. Aggregate Local Authorities Index. Preferred represented by BofA Merrill Lynch Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index. Floating-Rate Loans represented by S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Emerging Markets(USD) represented by JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus(EMBI+). High Yield represented by Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Investment Grade Corporate Bond Market Update
Narrow spreads and premium prices have resulted in rich valuations Spreads and Prices
Spreads and Prices $125
700
Avg. Spread (bps)
Avg. Price ($)
Current
118
108.4
Average
175
105.1
Median
143
106.6
High
618
115.4
Low
76
83.7
600
bps
500
$100
400 Spread
300
Price $75
200 100
$50
0 '04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14
Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14 Averages Yield to Worst Spread (%) (bps)
Coupon (%)
Price ($)
Barclays U.S. Corp Index
4.47
108.4
3.03
AAA Index
3.77
108.4
2.66
AA Index
3.13
105.2
2.32
A Index
4.30
108.7
BBB Index
4.98
108.9
Total Returns (%) Maturity (yrs.)
Duration (yrs.)
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
118
10.6
7.2
1.02
1.00
6.68
6.29
4.92
6.47
5.49
63
15.8
8.9
1.42
1.88
7.90
6.77
2.54
5.20
4.29
68
9.1
6.4
1.00
1.30
5.33
4.61
3.10
4.60
4.51
2.79
99
10.2
7.1
1.12
1.16
6.10
5.60
4.48
6.03
4.95
3.44
149
11.2
7.4
0.91
0.75
7.56
7.38
5.87
7.59
6.25
Source: Barclays and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
15
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. All spreads are in basis points and measure option-adjusted yield spread relative to comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
High Yield Corporate Bond Market Update Potentially attractive yields along with below average defaults may offer opportunity Spreads and Prices
Annual Default Rate
2000
$125
15%
Price
bps
1500 $100
10%
$75
5%
$50
0%
1000 500 Spread 0 '04
'05
'06
'07
Current Average Median High Low Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14
Barclays U.S. Corp High Yield Index BB Index B Index CCC Index Below CCC Index
'08
'09
'10
Avg. Spread (bps) 415 562 484 1971 233
'11
'12
'13
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 14
'14
Avg. Price ($) 102.4 96.5 99.3 107.4 55.1
Default Rate 1.9% 3.7% 2.7% 11.5% 0.4%
Current Average Median High Low Source: JPMorgan as of 10/31/14
Averages Yield to Worst Spread Maturity (%) (bps) (yrs.)
Coupon (%)
Price ($)
6.94
102.4
5.83
415
6.04 7.12 8.55
105.4 103.0 97.0
4.55 5.78 8.53
9.84
42.8
38.59
Total Returns (%) Duration (yrs.)
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
6.5
4.3
1.19
0.64
4.72
5.82
9.39
10.44
8.26
281 417 695
7.1 6.2 5.7
4.9 3.9 3.4
2.05 1.02 -0.20
1.99 0.47 -1.55
6.57 4.09 2.70
7.18 5.17 4.78
8.96 9.06 11.28
10.19 9.76 11.54
8.26 7.14 8.00
3,108
4.8
3.0
-11.79
-23.67
-29.42
-26.22
-2.36
4.44
5.10
Source: Barclays and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
16
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. All spreads are in basis points and measure option-adjusted yield spread relative to comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Floating-Rate Loan Market Update Strong fundamentals and discount prices Spreads and Prices
Annual Default Rate
2000
12%
$125 Price
10%
bps
1500
8%
$100
6%
1000 Spread
4%
$75 500
2%
0
0%
$50 '04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
Avg. Spread (bps) Current 483 Average 508 Median 482 High 1699 Low 234 Source: Standard & Poor’s and LCD as of 10/31/14
S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index BBB BB B CCC D
'11
'12
'13
'14
Avg. Price ($) 98.2 94.4 97.0 101.0 62.0
Default Rate 3.3% 2.5% 1.7% 10.8% 0.2%
Current Average Median High Low
Averages Nominal Secondary Spread Spread (bps) (bps)
Source: Standard & Poor’s and LCD as of 10/31/14 Total Returns (%)
Price ($)
Yield (%)
Life (yrs.)
98.2
5.07
439
508
5.08
99.0 98.8 98.2 95.1 69.1
3.56 4.20 5.39 9.17 -
309 368 470 755 -
347 413 541 965 -
5.09 5.15 5.18 5.20 -
Duration (yrs.)
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
0.1
0.26
-0.19
2.38
3.36
5.74
6.40
5.08
-
0.36 0.50 0.23 -0.22 -1.43
0.11 0.06 -0.10 -1.02 -4.31
1.51 1.68 2.40 6.35 14.38
2.13 2.40 3.49 8.41 15.10
3.35 4.33 6.28 10.27 15.73
4.04 4.88 7.00 11.04 11.67
3.99 3.98 5.14 6.81 -3.53
Source: Standard & Poor’s as of 10/31/14
17
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. All spreads are in basis points and measure the average discounted spread over Libor.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Municipal Bond Market Update
Munis offer a potentially attractive alternative to taxable income investments Credit Quality Spreads vs. AAA
AAA Municipal Yields (%) 400
5Y 10Y 30Y
6%
250%
AA A BBB
300
bps
8%
AAA Muni-to-Treasury Yield Ratios (%)
5Y 200%
4%
200
150%
2%
100
100%
0%
0 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Current Average Median High Low
5Y 1.12 2.11 1.77 3.97 0.62
10Y 2.07 3.01 2.99 4.86 1.47
Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14
Barclays Municipal Bond Index
30Y 3.01 4.09 4.24 5.94 2.47
10Y 30Y
50% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Current Average Median High Low
AA 22 17 19 32 8
A 58 66 68 160 21
Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14 Averages Coupon Price Yield To Worst Maturity (%) ($) (%) (yrs.) 4.84 108.6 2.11 13.4
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
BBB 106 140 138 354 32
5Y 69 87 80 220 59
Current Average Median High Low
10Y 89 92 90 187 75
30Y 98 102 100 209 84
Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14 Total Returns (%) Duration (yrs.) 6.6
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
0.69
2.01
8.32
7.82
4.93
5.26
4.71
Barclays 5-Year Municipal Bond Index
4.83
114.0
1.31
5.0
3.9
0.35
1.00
3.46
3.23
3.12
3.85
4.02
Barclays 10-Year Municipal Bond Index
4.83
113.1
2.04
9.9
5.6
0.74
1.93
8.03
7.08
5.04
5.73
5.03
Barclays 22+ Year Municipal Bond Index
4.96
102.1
3.12
26.5
11.0
0.97
3.18
13.82
12.82
6.86
6.91
5.39
Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index
5.47
53.3
6.49
20.6
10.2
-0.36
3.57
12.07
10.84
8.11
8.26
5.62
Source: Barclays as of 10/31/14
18
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. All spreads are in basis points.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Emerging Markets Bond Market Update
EM debt may provide enhanced income and portfolio diversification Sovereign EMD Spreads (USD)
Local EMD Yields (%)
Corporate EMD Spreads (USD)
1300
1300
900
900
12%
bps
bps
10% 8%
500
500
100
6%
100 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Current Average Median High Low Source: JPMorgan as of 10/31/14
4% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Avg. Spread (bps) 322 311 296 865 149
Avg. Spread (bps) 307 344 315 1085 149
Current Average Median High Low
Price ($)
Averages Yield (%)
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+)
6.83
108.0
JPMorgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) Diversified
5.44
JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified
6.88
Avg. Yield (%) 6.41 6.85 6.83 9.72 5.16
Current Average Median High Low
Source: JPMorgan as of 10/31/14 Coupon (%)
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
Source: JPMorgan as of 10/31/14 Total Returns (%)
Duration (yrs.)
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
5.54
7.8
2.08
-0.14
9.39
7.19
6.07
7.92
8.38
103.6
4.86
5.9
1.17
1.14
8.26
7.63
-
-
-
-
6.41
4.8
1.56
-3.16
1.56
-2.68
0.90
4.55
8.60
Source: Morningstar and JPMorgan as of 10/31/14
19
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. All spreads are in basis points and measure option-adjusted yield spread relative to comparable maturity U.S. Treasuries. Diversification does not guarantee profit or eliminate the risk of loss.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Fixed Income Asset Class Return Analysis (%) US income sector performance was positive year-to-date
Index
1-Mo.
Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
10Y
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
0.98
1.40
5.12
4.14
2.73
4.22
4.64
-2.02
4.21
7.84
6.54
5.93
U.S. Treasury
0.97
1.48
4.07
2.78
1.64
3.45
4.24
-2.75
1.99
9.81
5.87
-3.57
U.S. Agency
0.63
0.97
3.04
2.45
1.48
2.52
3.78
-1.38
2.16
4.82
4.36
1.53
U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities
0.97
1.75
5.23
4.08
2.40
3.53
4.71
-1.41
2.59
6.23
5.37
5.89
U.S. Asset Backed Securities
0.51
0.69
1.84
1.84
1.84
3.26
3.36
-0.27
3.66
5.14
5.85
24.71
U.S. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities
0.92
0.93
3.32
3.13
4.90
7.89
5.22
0.23
9.66
6.02
20.40
28.45
U.S. Investment Grade Corporate
1.02
1.00
6.68
6.29
4.92
6.47
5.49
-1.53
9.82
8.15
9.00
18.68
U.S. Aggregate Local Authorities
1.34
1.87
11.63
10.62
6.05
7.65
6.31
-4.56
9.61
18.10
7.22
0.72
Barclays Municipal Bond Index
0.69
2.01
8.32
7.82
4.93
5.26
4.71
-2.55
6.78
10.70
2.38
12.91
BofAML US Inflation-Linked Treasury Index
0.98
-1.17
5.21
2.29
1.06
4.54
4.69
-9.35
7.33
14.10
6.34
10.03
BofAML Preferred Index (Fixed Rate)
1.61
2.20
14.19
12.45
7.28
9.31
2.69
-3.65
13.60
4.11
13.66
20.07
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index
1.19
0.64
4.72
5.82
9.39
10.44
8.26
7.44
15.81
4.98
15.12
58.21
S&P / LSTA Leveraged Loan Index
0.26
-0.19
2.38
3.36
5.74
6.40
5.08
5.29
9.66
1.52
10.13
51.62
2.08
-0.14
9.39
7.19
6.07
7.92
8.38
-8.31
18.04
9.20
11.83
25.95
1.17
1.14
8.26
7.63
-
-
-
-1.73
16.95
3.24
13.50
38.61
1.56
-3.16
1.56
-2.68
0.90
4.55
8.60
-8.98
16.76
-1.75
15.68
21.98
Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-U.S. Index
-0.68
-4.74
-0.77
-2.53
-0.78
1.45
3.74
-3.08
4.09
4.36
4.95
7.53
BofAML U.K. Gilts Index
0.06
-1.20
5.30
6.23
3.52
5.13
4.36
-2.44
7.54
16.04
4.32
10.90
BofAML European Union Government Bond Index
-0.41
-3.58
1.36
2.43
4.25
2.69
4.81
4.67
11.62
3.12
-3.55
8.07
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) JPMorgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) Diversified JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified
Source: Morningstar as of 10/31/14
20
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Income Markets
Fixed Income Asset Class Return Analysis (%) US income sector performance was positive year-to-date
Higher
Lower
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD 10/14
EM (Local Currency) 22.97
EM (Local Currency) 6.27
EM (Local Currency) 15.22
EM (Local Currency) 18.11
Treasury 13.74
High Yield 58.21
EM (Local Currency) 15.68
Municipal 10.70
EM (Local Currency) 16.76
High Yield 7.44
Municipal 8.32
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 12.55
Bank Loan 5.06
High Yield 11.85
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 11.03
MBS 8.34
Bank Loan 51.62
High Yield 15.12
Treasury 9.81
High Yield 15.81
Bank Loan 5.29
Investment Grade 6.68
High Yield 11.13
Municipal 3.51
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 8.16
Treasury 9.01
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 4.40
EM (Local Currency) 21.98
Bank Loan 10.13
Investment Grade 8.15
Investment Grade 9.82
MBS -1.41
MBS 5.23
Investment Grade 5.39
Treasury 2.79
Bank Loan 6.74
MBS 6.90
Municipal -2.47
Investment Grade 18.68
Investment Grade 9.00
MBS 6.23
Bank Loan 9.66
Investment Grade -1.53
High Yield 4.72
Bank Loan 5.17
High Yield 2.74
MBS 5.22
Investment Grade 4.56
Investment Grade -4.94
Municipal 12.91
Treasury 5.87
High Yield 4.98
Municipal 6.78
Municipal -2.55
Treasury 4.07
MBS 4.70
MBS 2.61
Municipal 4.84
Municipal 3.36
EM (Local Currency) -5.22
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 7.53
MBS 5.37
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 4.36
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 4.09
Treasury -2.75
Bank Loan 2.38
Municipal 4.48
Investment Grade 1.68
Investment Grade 4.30
Bank Loan 2.08
High Yield -26.16
MBS 5.89
Global Agg Ex-U.S. 4.95
Bank Loan 1.52
MBS 2.59
Global Agg Ex-U.S. -3.08
EM (Local Currency) 1.56
Treasury 3.54
Global Agg Ex-U.S. -8.65
Treasury 3.08
High Yield 1.87
Bank Loan -29.10
Treasury -3.57
Municipal 2.38
EM (Local Currency) -1.75
Treasury 1.99
EM (Local Currency) -8.98
Global Agg Ex-U.S. -0.77
Source: Morningstar as of 10/31/14
21
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Investment Grade represented by Barclays U.S. Corporate Index. MBS represented by Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index. Treasury represented by Barclays U.S. Treasury Index. High Yield represented by Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index. Municipal represented by Barclays Municipal Bond Index. Bank Loan represented by S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Global Agg Ex-U.S. represented by Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-USD Index. EM(Local Currency) represented by JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Equity Performance and Volatility Analysis Large caps still has a sizable lead over small caps
Value vs. Growth
15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% 10/10
4/11
10/11
4/12
10/12
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
4/13
10/13
4/14
10/14
Russell 1000 Russell 2000
12-Mo Rolling Excess Returns
12-Mo Rolling Excess Returns
Large Cap vs. Small Cap 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 10/10
Correlation of S&P 500 Stocks
0.80
40
0.60
30
0.40
20
0.20
10 10/98
10/02
Source: BA540, Ned Davis Research as of 10/31/14*
10/06
4/12
10/12
4/13
10/13
4/14
10/14
Russell 1000 Value Russell 1000 Growth
CBOE Market Volatility Index (VIX) 50
10/94
10/11
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
1.00
0.00 10/90
4/11
10/10
10/14
S&P 500 Stocks Correlation
0 10/09
10/10
10/11
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Average
*Copyright 2014 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html. For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/. 22 Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
10/12
10/13 VIX Average
10/14
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Dividend Yields
Global equities have offered attractive dividend yields Historical Yields
Current Yields
4.5%
3.5% 3.1
4.0% 3.0%
2.8
3.5% 2.5%
3.0%
2.0%
2.5% 2.0%
2.3
2.4
1.9
1.5%
1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5%
0.5% 0.0% 10/09
0.0% 4/10
10/10
4/11
10/11
4/12
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
23
10/12
4/13
10/13
4/14
10/14
S&P 500
MSCI EM
MSCI EAFE
MSCI World
S&P 500
10 Yr Treasury MSCI World
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
MSCI EM
MSCI EAFE
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Valuation Analysis
P/E Multiples have expanded globally S&P 500 Forward P/E
MSCI World Forward P/E
22x
22x
19x
19x
16x
16x
13x
13x
10x
10x
7x
7x
4x 10/04 10/05 10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14
4x 10/04 10/05 10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
S&P 500 Forward P/E Average
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
MSCI EAFE Forward P/E
MSCI EM Forward P/E 22x
22x
19x
19x
16x
16x
13x
13x
10x
10x
7x
7x
4x 10/04 10/05 10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14
4x 10/04 10/05 10/06 10/07 10/08 10/09 10/10 10/11 10/12 10/13 10/14
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
24
MSCI World Forward P/E Average
MSCI EM Forward P/E Average
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Forward P/E is market price per share divided by expected earnings per share over the next twelve months. Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
MSCI EAFE Forward P/E Average
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Valuation Analysis
Value is becoming harder to find Regions/Styles: Current NTM P/E vs. 10-Year High, Low, Average 30.00
25.00 Average
20.00
Current Current P/E MSCI World
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00 SP500
R2000
R1000G
R1000V
MSCI World
MSCI EAFE
MSCI EM
MSCI Europe
MSCI AC Asia Pac
SP500
R2000
R1000G
R1000V
MSCI World
MSCI EAFE
MSCI EM
MSCI Europe
MSCI AC Asia Pac
Average
13.86
19.75
16.07
12.64
13.36
12.68
10.85
11.85
13.84
High
16.40
28.26
19.85
15.21
15.74
15.31
14.98
15.07
20.23
Low
10.58
14.33
11.10
9.53
9.25
8.28
6.86
7.72
9.27
Current
15.74
21.26
17.80
14.47
14.96
13.69
10.47
13.47
12.79
Source: FactSet as of 10/31/14
25
NTM P/E is market price per share divided by expected earnings per share over the next twelve months. Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Valuation Analysis
9 out of 10 sectors are trading above their long term average S&P 500 Sectors: Current NTM P/E vs. 10-Year High, Low, Average
45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 Average
25.00
Current 20.00 Current P/E S&P 500
15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecom
Utilities
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecom
Utilities
Average
16.60
15.89
11.65
11.93
14.05
14.72
15.64
14.63
14.70
14.15
High
29.37
18.58
15.82
17.44
17.93
18.77
22.28
25.70
19.31
16.82
Low
12.30
11.51
7.86
8.57
9.61
8.92
10.82
9.28
9.91
10.05
Current
17.81
18.44
14.19
13.33
17.20
16.05
15.64
16.07
13.71
16.82
Source: FactSet as of 10/31/14
26
NTM P/E is market price per share divided by expected earnings per share over the next twelve months. Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
S&P 500 Index – 1-Month Return Analysis Small cap companies outperformed during the month Trailing 12 Month P/E
Market Cap
6.0%
6.0% 4.1
4.0%
3.4
4.0%
2.4
2.4 2.0
2.0
2.0%
3.4
3.1
3.9
2.0
2.0% 0.9 0.0%
0.0% S&P 500
27.7+
18.8 - 27.7
13.7 - 18.8
9.6 - 13.7
S&P 500
<9.6
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
$50B+
7.1
6.0%
6.0%
2.0%
3.9
4.0%
4.0 3.0
$0 - $5B
Dividend Yield
8.0%
2.4
$5B - $10B
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
S&P 500 Quality Ranking
4.0%
$10B - $50B
2.4
2.6
1.9
3.3 2.0 1.8
2.0%
1.4
2.1
0.5 0.0%
0.0% S&P 500
A+
A
A-
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
27
B+
B
B-
C
S&P 500
3.5+
2.4 - 3.5
1.6 - 2.4
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
0.6 - 1.6
0.0 - 0.6
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
S&P 500 Index â&#x20AC;&#x201C; YTD Return Analysis
High dividend yielding, low quality companies continue to lead year-to-date Trailing 12 Month P/E
Market Cap
20.0%
20.0%
16.0% 12.0%
16.0%
14.0 11.0
11.7
9.9
9.2
8.0%
6.9
12.0%
13.9 11.0
10.9
11.5
S&P 500
$50B+
$10B - $50B
4.0%
4.0% 0.0%
0.0% S&P 500
27.0+
18.2 - 27.0
13.3 - 18.2
9.0 - 13.3
<9.0
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
$0 - $5B
Dividend Yield 29.2
20.0% 16.3 16.0%
11.0
10.2
12.0
12.9
12.0%
13.2
12.3
10.1
11.0
11.2 8.6
8.0%
7.8 5.4
4.0% 0.0%
S&P 500
A+
A
A-
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
28
$5B - $10B
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
S&P 500 Quality Ranking 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%
9.5
8.0%
B+
B
B-
C
S&P 500
3.5+
2.4 - 3.5
1.6 - 2.4
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
0.6 - 1.6
0.0 - 0.6
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
S&P 500 Index Sectors: 1-Month & YTD Return Analysis Utilities now leading the way in 2014
Sectors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; YTD
Sectors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1-Month Total
Total
2.4
Utilities
8.0
Health Care Industrials
3.7
Information Technology
Consumer Staples
3.6
Consumer Staples
3.0
Consumer Discretionary
0.9
Consumer Discretionary
Energy
-2.9
Energy
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
11.1 10.6 8.4 6.7
Materials
-2.5
0%
16.1
Industrials
Materials
-5%
22.9
Telecommunication Services
1.7
Telecommunication Services
23.1
Financials
2.1
Information Technology
29
Utilities Health Care
5.4
Financials
11.0
5%
10%
6.1 3.0 0.3 0%
5%
10%
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
15%
20%
25%
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
MSCI World Index Sectors: 1-Month & YTD Return Analysis Defensive sectors lead the way year-to-date
Sectors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; YTD
Sectors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 1-Month
MSCI World
MSCI World
0.6
Utilities
3.9
Health Care
Information Technology
1.0
Telecommunication Services
Industrials
0.8
Industrials
Telecommunication Services
0.6
Consumer Discretionary
Energy -10%
-3.4
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
30
Energy
-5.1 -5%
Materials 0%
12.4 5.3
Financials
1.2
Materials
14.5
Consumer Staples
1.5
Consumer Discretionary
17.4
Information Technology
1.8
Financials
Health Care Utilities
2.5
Consumer Staples
4.6
5%
-10%
3.3 0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -2.1 -3.9 -5%
0%
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
5%
10%
15%
20%
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Global Equity: Characteristics & Sector Weights
The average company market cap has increased 20% over its 5-year average MSCI World Index
S&P 500 Index Current
3 Mo. Ago
1 Yr Ago
5-Yr Avg.
3 Mo. Ago
1 Yr Ago
5-Yr Avg.
Weighted Avg. Market Cap
$132.9B
$125.7B
$112.9B
$101.4B
Weighted Avg. Market Cap
$89.2B
$85.6B
$79.8B
$70.1B
Median Market Cap
$18.2B
$17.4B
$15.8B
$12.7B
Median Market Cap
$9.0B
$9.1B
$8.4B
$7.0B
Dividend Yield
1.91
1.94
1.97
2.02
Dividend Yield
2.43
2.46
2.46
2.60
P/E NTM
15.74
15.14
14.76
13.53
P/E NTM
14.96
14.85
14.29
12.20
P/B
2.74
2.64
2.53
2.26
P/B
2.18
2.15
2.10
1.86
Sector Weights
Sector Weights Consumer Discretionary
11.67
11.85
12.49
10.96
Consumer Discretionary
11.81
11.81
12.28
10.81
Consumer Staples
9.64
9.32
10.20
10.75
Consumer Staples
9.81
9.56
10.21
10.38
Energy
9.20
10.64
10.60
11.30
Energy
8.81
9.87
9.67
10.60
Financials
16.42
16.13
16.24
15.73
Financials
21.00
20.87
21.06
20.24
Health Care
14.27
13.50
13.01
12.27
Health Care
12.61
11.79
11.09
10.56
Industrials
10.41
10.19
10.76
10.48
Industrials
10.92
10.91
11.24
10.99
Information Technology
19.57
19.38
17.77
18.89
Information Technology
13.02
12.65
11.66
11.99
Materials
3.29
3.51
3.51
3.52
Materials
5.23
5.79
5.78
6.76
Telecom Services
2.37
2.50
2.35
2.74
Telecom Services
3.44
3.52
3.77
3.96
Utilities
3.16
2.98
3.06
3.36
Utilities
3.36
3.23
3.23
3.70
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
31
Current Index Characteristics
Index Characteristics
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Equity Asset Class Return Analysis (%)
Equity Markets have posted strong 1, 3, and 5 year performance numbers
U.S. Equities S&P 500 S&P 500 High Quality S&P 500 Low Quality Russell 2500 Russell 1000 Growth Russell 1000 Value Russell Mid Cap Russell 2000 CBOE S&P 500 Buywrite BXM Global Equities MSCI World MSCI EAFE MSCI EM MSCI AC Asia Pac MSCI ACWI MSCI Europe FTSE 100 FTSE All Small STOXX Europe 600 Nikkei 225 Average Sectors S&P 500 Cons Disc S&P 500 Cons Staples S&P 500 Energy S&P 500 Financials S&P 500 Health Care S&P 500 Industrials S&P 500 Info Tech S&P 500 Materials S&P 500 Telecom Services S&P 500 Utilities
1-Mo. 2.44 4.11 2.23 4.43 2.64 2.25 3.08 6.59 -1.71
3-Mo. 5.05 8.28 2.91 3.96 5.78 3.82 4.45 5.11 -0.71
YTD 10.99 11.59 12.14 4.72 10.73 10.50 10.16 1.90 4.69
1Y 17.27 16.97 19.17 10.23 17.11 16.46 15.32 8.06 8.27
3Y 19.77 20.11 23.97 19.03 19.30 20.42 20.05 18.18 9.61
5Y 16.69 18.93 20.49 18.40 17.43 16.49 18.97 17.39 8.70
10Y 8.20 8.16 11.00 9.68 9.05 7.90 10.37 8.67 4.97
2013 32.39 32.44 42.69 36.80 33.48 32.53 34.76 38.82 13.26
2012 16.00 15.18 21.12 17.88 15.26 17.51 17.28 16.35 5.20
2011 2.11 6.59 -6.83 -2.51 2.64 0.39 -1.55 -4.18 5.72
2010 15.06 22.14 23.54 26.71 16.71 15.51 25.48 26.85 5.86
2009 26.46 25.52 64.85 34.39 37.21 19.69 40.48 27.17 25.91
0.65 -1.45 1.18 1.12 0.70 -2.64 -0.99 -0.88 -1.74 1.49
0.07 -5.39 -4.21 -4.05 -0.41 -5.90 -1.76 -1.13 0.67 5.08
4.56 -2.81 3.63 2.58 4.46 -4.50 -0.01 0.19 5.16 0.75
8.67 -0.60 0.64 2.12 7.77 -1.21 0.71 2.13 7.33 14.56
14.37 9.68 3.24 7.94 12.98 10.23 9.67 17.89 14.80 22.23
11.41 6.52 4.64 6.66 10.57 6.58 9.19 12.20 10.49 10.34
6.93 5.81 10.54 6.88 7.09 5.97 7.37 8.40 6.46 4.30
26.68 22.78 -2.60 11.97 22.80 25.23 18.66 33.18 20.79 56.72
15.83 17.32 18.22 16.78 16.13 19.12 9.97 27.20 18.18 22.94
-5.54 -12.14 -18.42 -15.11 -7.35 -11.06 -2.18 -12.50 -8.61 -17.34
11.76 7.75 18.88 17.02 12.67 3.88 12.62 19.76 11.61 -3.01
29.99 31.78 78.51 37.59 34.63 35.83 27.33 57.58 32.39 19.04
2.15 3.62 -2.88 2.97 5.35 3.71 1.72 -2.52 0.91 8.05
3.78 9.17 -8.20 6.91 10.94 6.92 5.03 -0.41 0.31 11.31
3.03 11.11 0.27 10.60 22.86 6.68 16.09 6.12 8.44 23.12
9.09 13.52 4.30 18.17 29.71 15.20 25.71 12.68 5.39 21.89
22.50 17.87 9.83 23.27 28.67 20.95 18.61 14.52 14.43 13.85
22.57 15.94 11.10 13.07 21.54 19.23 16.50 13.89 15.04 14.58
9.35 11.01 10.84 0.43 11.22 8.39 9.33 8.52 7.75 9.86
43.08 26.14 25.07 35.63 41.46 40.68 28.43 25.60 11.47 13.21
23.92 10.76 4.61 28.82 17.89 15.35 14.82 14.97 18.31 1.29
6.13 13.99 4.72 -17.06 12.73 -0.59 2.41 -9.75 6.27 19.91
27.66 14.11 20.46 12.13 2.90 26.73 10.19 22.20 18.97 5.46
41.30 14.89 13.82 17.22 19.70 20.93 61.72 48.59 8.93 11.91
Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
32
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Equity Markets
Equity Asset Class Return Analysis (%) U.S. stocks lead on a year to date basis
Higher
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD 10/14
Emerging Markets 25.55
Emerging Markets 34.00
Emerging Markets 32.14
Emerging Markets 39.42
Small-Cap -33.79
Emerging Markets 78.51
Small-Cap 26.85
Growth 2.64
Emerging Markets 18.22
Small-Cap 38.82
S&P 500 10.99
Growth 11.81
Value -36.85
Mid-Cap 40.48
Mid-Cap 25.48
S&P 500 2.11
Value 17.51
Mid-Cap 34.76
Growth 10.73
International International International 20.25 13.54 26.34 Mid-Cap 20.22
Mid-Cap 12.65
Value 22.25
Global 11.66
S&P 500 -37.00
Growth 37.21
Emerging Markets 18.88
Value 0.39
International 17.32
Growth 33.48
Value 10.50
Small-Cap 18.33
Global 10.84
Global 20.95
International 11.17
Growth -38.44
Global 34.63
Growth 16.71
Mid-Cap -1.55
Mid-Cap 17.28
Value 32.53
Mid-Cap 10.16
Value 16.49
Value 7.05
Small-Cap 18.37
Mid-Cap 5.60
Mid-Cap -41.46
International 31.78
Value 15.51
Small-Cap -4.18
Small-Cap 16.35
S&P 500 32.39
Global 4.46
Global 15.23
Growth 5.26
S&P 500 15.79
S&P 500 5.49
Global -42.19
Small-Cap 27.17
S&P 500 15.06
Global -7.35
Global 16.13
Global 22.80
Emerging Markets 3.63
S&P 500 10.88
S&P 500 4.91
Mid-Cap 15.26
Value -0.17
International -43.38
S&P 500 26.46
Global 12.67
International -12.14
S&P 500 16.00
International 22.78
Small-Cap 1.90
Growth 6.30
Small-Cap 4.55
Growth 9.07
Small-Cap -1.57
Emerging Markets -53.33
Value 19.69
International 7.75
Emerging Markets -18.42
Growth 15.26
Emerging Markets -2.60
International -2.81
Lower Source: FactSet, Zephyr and Morningstar as of 10/31/14
33
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Small-Cap represented by Russell 2000 Index. Emerging Markets represented by MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Value represented by Russell 1000 Value Index. Mid-Cap represented by Russell Midcap Index. Global represented by MSCI ACWI Index. Growth represented by Russell 1000 Growth Index. International represented by MSCI EAFE Index.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Alternative Markets
Developed Market Currency Performance & Interest Rates
The US dollar has strengthened versus other developed market currencies over the past 5yrs Spot Returns vs. USD (%)
Currency
1-Mo.
U.S. Dollar (USD)
YTD
1Y
3Y
Spot Returns vs. EUR (%)
Local Interest Rates (%)
5Y
1-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
3-Mo.
6-Mo.
1Y
-
-
-
-
-
0.85
9.72
8.46
3.43
3.28
0.01
0.05
0.09
Euro (EUR) *
-0.83
-8.84
-7.78
-3.31
-3.18
-
-
-
-
-
-0.14
-0.12
-0.07
British Pound (GBP)
-1.34
-3.39
-0.27
-0.19
-0.55
-0.50
6.03
8.17
3.24
2.70
0.40
0.50
0.41
Japanese Yen (JPY)
-2.38
-6.24
-12.43
-11.38
-4.31
-1.56
2.88
-5.03
-8.34
-1.17
-
-0.03
0.02
Australian Dollar (AUD)
0.57
-1.31
-6.96
-5.81
-0.44
1.44
8.25
0.90
-2.59
2.81
2.41
-
2.49
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
-0.60
-5.71
-7.41
-3.87
-0.75
0.23
3.47
0.42
-0.58
2.50
0.88
0.92
0.98
New Zealand Dollar (NZD)
-0.16
-5.11
-5.67
-1.14
1.67
0.62
4.07
2.28
2.23
4.87
3.46
-
3.53
Norwegian Krone (NOK)
-4.81
-10.07
-11.98
-6.30
-3.24
-4.02
-1.33
-4.55
-3.09
-0.07
1.24
1.24
1.18
Swedish Krona (SEK)
-2.43
-12.92
-12.32
-4.18
-0.82
-1.61
-4.45
-4.91
-0.90
2.43
-0.02
-0.02
0.01
Danish Krone (DKK)
-0.83
-8.66
-7.61
-3.32
-3.18
0.01
0.23
0.21
-0.01
0.00
-0.07
-0.04
-0.03
Swiss Franc (CHF)
-0.78
-7.24
-5.79
-3.06
1.29
0.05
1.80
2.17
0.26
4.61
0.02
0.06
-0.13
Foreign Currencies Appreciation / (Depreciation) vs. EUR Trailing 5-Year % Change
Foreign Currencies Appreciation / (Depreciation) vs. USD Trailing 5-Year % Change
84% 72% 60% 48% 36% 24% 12% 0% -12% -24%
84% 72% 60% 48% 36% 24% 12% 0% -12% -24% '09
'10 EUR*
'11 GBP
'12 JPY
'13 AUD
'14 NZD
'09
'10 USD
'11 GBP
'12 NOK
* German Rate
Source: Bloomberg as of 10/31/14
34
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
'13 SEK
'14 CHF
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Alternative Markets
Emerging Market Currency Performance & Interest Rates
Most Asian currencies have strengthened versus the US dollar and Euro over the past 5yrs Spot Returns vs. USD (%)
Currency
Spot Returns vs. EUR (%)
Local Interest Rates (%)
1-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
1-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
3-Mo.
6-Mo.
1Y
Chinese Renminbi (CNY)
0.43
-0.96
-0.31
1.30
2.24
1.30
8.56
8.75
5.07
5.52
-
-
2.60
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
-0.27
-0.42
-4.08
-2.32
0.74
0.51
9.13
4.70
1.25
4.13
3.30
3.40
3.30
Indian Rupee (INR)
0.64
0.71
0.21
-7.42
-5.20
0.67
10.19
8.82
-4.02
-2.20
8.26
8.35
8.33
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR)
0.85
0.71
-6.71
-9.85
-4.53
1.62
10.33
0.99
-6.55
-1.54
-
-
6.53
Philippine Peso (PHP)
0.19
-1.08
-3.72
-1.68
1.20
0.88
8.32
5.01
1.90
4.44
1.82
1.73
2.00
Singapore Dollar (SGD)
-0.75
-1.75
-3.40
-0.81
1.73
0.09
7.84
4.76
2.59
5.06
0.31
0.33
0.36
South Korean Won (KRW)
-1.27
-1.78
-0.76
1.27
2.03
-0.38
7.72
8.12
4.96
5.30
2.03
2.67
2.31
Taiwanese Dollar (TWD)
-0.10
-2.12
-3.38
-0.59
1.32
0.83
7.36
5.31
3.16
4.73
-
-
0.60
Thai Baht (THB)
-0.52
0.32
-4.37
-1.97
0.52
0.32
10.08
3.72
1.39
3.81
2.05
2.09
2.11
Brazilian Real (BRL)
-1.25
-4.67
-9.61
-11.53
-6.60
-0.35
4.51
-2.10
-8.55
-3.54
11.32
11.69
12.21
Chilean Peso (CLP)
3.50
-9.10
-11.16
-5.35
-1.69
4.28
-0.07
-3.59
-1.98
1.55
-
-
3.05
Colombian Peso (COP)
-1.59
-6.23
-8.06
-3.21
-0.60
-0.83
3.19
-0.24
0.30
2.65
-
-
4.68
Mexican Peso (MXN)
-0.39
-3.30
-3.41
-0.32
-0.42
0.46
6.11
4.76
3.10
2.85
2.96
3.00
3.13
Peruvian New Sol (PEN)
-1.06
-4.27
-5.01
-2.51
-0.09
-0.29
5.27
3.04
0.99
3.20
-
-
4.50
ASIA, EX. JAPAN
LATIN AMERICA
Source: Bloomberg as of 10/31/14
35
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Alternative Markets
Emerging Market Currency Performance & Interest Rates EM currencies generally weakened versus the US dollar year-to-date Spot Returns vs. USD (%) Currency
Spot Returns vs. EUR (%)
Local Interest Rates (%)
1-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
1-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
3-Mo.
6-Mo.
1Y
Czech Koruna (CZK)
-1.92
-10.39
-14.47
-6.83
-4.09
-1.08
-1.66
-7.21
-3.63
-0.94
0.06
0.07
0.09
Hungarian Forint (HUF)
0.03
-12.09
-11.58
-3.64
-5.37
0.89
-3.55
-4.09
-0.34
-2.27
1.71
1.73
1.70
Polish Zloty (PLN)
-1.94
-10.45
-8.74
-2.03
-3.07
-1.11
-1.75
-1.03
1.33
0.11
-
-
1.65
Romania Leu (RON)
-0.90
-7.62
-7.29
-3.85
-3.63
0.01
1.12
0.57
-0.56
-0.46
-
1.47
1.80
Russian Ruble (RUB)
-7.93
-23.58
-25.39
-11.08
-7.49
-7.24
-15.98
-19.10
-7.91
-4.45
10.97
11.24
12.37
Turkish New Lira (TRY)
2.49
-3.36
-10.17
-7.29
-7.50
3.38
6.07
-2.53
-4.11
-4.46
8.25
8.28
8.33
Ghanaian Cedi (GHS)
2.09
-26.42
-31.22
-20.92
-15.02
2.82
-19.26
-25.39
-18.22
-12.23
24.64
-
22.50
Israeli Shekel (ILS)
-3.08
-8.59
-7.22
-1.58
-0.24
-2.15
0.48
0.75
1.80
3.05
0.20
0.17
0.16
Kenyan Shilling (KES)
0.00
-3.41
-4.48
3.55
-3.39
0.64
6.06
3.51
7.18
-0.24
10.45
10.48
10.55
Moroccan Dirham (MAD)
-0.68
-7.25
-6.39
-2.69
-2.62
0.20
1.90
1.69
0.65
0.58
-
-
-
Nigerian Naira (NGN)
-1.07
-3.20
-3.98
-1.29
-1.84
0.04
6.47
4.40
2.18
1.43
11.10
11.12
11.50
South African Rand (ZAR)
2.23
-4.95
-8.99
-10.33
-6.68
3.10
4.35
-1.27
-7.24
-3.61
6.40
6.43
6.52
Ugandan Shilling (UGX)
-1.90
-6.63
-6.73
-1.58
-7.02
-1.44
2.45
1.12
1.80
-3.97
6.35
-
13.53
Zambian Kwacha (ZMK)
-0.51
-11.89
-13.08
-7.94
-5.93
0.37
-4.71
-5.70
-4.80
-2.84
-
-
18.48
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA
Source: Bloomberg as of 10/31/14
36
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Alternative Markets
Local Sovereign Interest Rates
Developed short-term rates remain low, while EM may offer income opportunity Developed Market Local Interest Rates (1 Year) Swiss Franc (CHF)
-0.13
Euro (EUR) *
-0.07
Danish Krone (DKK)
-0.03
Swedish Krona (SEK)
0.01
Japanese Yen (JPY)
0.02
U.S. Dollar (USD)
0.09
British Pound (GBP)
0.41
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
0.98
Norwegian Krone (NOK)
1.18
Australian Dollar (AUD)
1.65
Hungarian Forint (HUF)
1.70
Philippine Peso (PHP)
2.00
Thai Baht (THB)
2.11
Chilean Peso (CLP)
3.05
Mexican Peso (MXN)
3.13
Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
3.30
Peruvian New Sol (PEN)
4.50
Colombian Peso (COP)
4.68
South African Rand (ZAR)
6.52
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR)
6.53
5.00
8.33
Nigerian Naira (NGN)
3.53 0.00
Polish Zloty (PLN)
Turkish New Lira (TRY)
2.49
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) -5.00
Emerging Market Local Interest Rates (1 Year)
10.00
15.00
11.50
Brazilian Real (BRL)
12.21
Russian Ruble (RUB)
12.37
0.00
5.00
German Rate Rate ** German
Source: Bloomberg as of 10/31/14
37
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
10.00
15.00
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Alternative Markets
Commodities Return Analysis (%)
Commodities have mostly experienced negative performance year-to-date
Index
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
Bloomberg Commodity Index
-0.80
-7.95
-6.35
-5.94
-7.59
-2.17
Bloomberg Sub Agriculture
8.91
-3.70
-6.38
-8.87
-6.61
1.36
Coffee
-2.77
-5.77
59.12
62.47
-13.99
Corn
17.46
2.26
-14.92
-18.32
Cotton
5.02
2.52
-17.55
Soybean
13.90
-3.86
Soybean Oil
7.29
Sugar Wheat
1-Mo.
3-Mo.
YTD
1Y
3Y
5Y
1.47
-4.83
0.76
0.62
-6.65
-2.78
Aluminum
4.28
1.42
7.97
2.81
-9.31
-4.73
-1.23
Copper
1.31
-6.14
-10.17
-7.80
-6.81
-1.09
-11.44
0.36
Nickel
-3.39
-15.09
12.16
6.32
-8.39
-4.12
-10.97
-10.93
5.19
Zinc
0.87
-2.89
10.30
15.67
0.82
-2.85
-2.52
0.66
9.52
9.93
-3.84
-11.99
-6.66
-15.84
-15.30
1.40
-4.59
-12.86
-18.87
-14.89
-5.41
Gold
-3.30
-8.66
-2.72
-11.70
-12.59
1.80
-2.49
-15.86
-23.66
-31.61
-21.66
-7.26
Platinum
-5.02
-15.81
-10.32
-15.15
-9.23
-2.37
11.46
-2.48
-17.15
-26.10
-12.85
-10.99
Silver
-5.57
-21.35
-17.57
-27.18
-23.15
-1.11
-9.10
-13.30
-13.07
-6.81
-8.02
-9.07
-1.34
-0.03
16.26
12.62
2.09
2.90
Brent Crude
-9.93
-20.20
-21.11
-19.32
-3.28
3.78
Lean Hogs
-6.88
-7.35
3.47
-5.31
-2.47
-0.75
Heating Oil
-5.65
-13.90
-17.26
-14.49
-6.05
1.34
Live Cattle
1.58
3.89
25.00
25.22
4.75
5.06
Natural Gas
-8.08
-3.60
-5.67
8.84
-20.46
-26.31
Unleaded Gas
-10.58
-17.45
-18.19
-12.90
1.94
6.66
WTI Crude Oil
-10.56
-15.86
-12.13
-10.60
-4.25
-4.01
Bloomberg Sub Energy
Index Bloomberg Sub Industrial Metals
Bloomberg Sub Precious Metals
Bloomberg Sub Livestock
Source: Morningstar as of 10/31/14
38
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Commodity represented by Bloomberg Commodity Index. Agriculture represented by Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex. Energy represented by Bloomberg Energy Subindex. Grains represented by Bloomberg Grains Subindex. Industrial Metals represented by Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex. Livestock represented by Bloomberg Livestock Subindex. Precious Metals represented by Bloomberg Precious Metals Subindex. Softs represented by Bloomberg Softs Subindex.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Alternative Markets
Commodities Return Analysis (%)
Commodities have mostly experienced negative performance year-to-date
Higher
Lower
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
YTD 10/14
Livestock 27.10
Energy 42.16
Industrial Metals 72.35
Grains 42.07
Precious Metals -4.06
Industrial Metals 79.98
Softs 59.90
Precious Metals 4.56
Grains 18.25
Energy 5.20
Livestock 16.26
Industrial Metals 25.27
Industrial Metals 33.47
Precious Metals 27.11
Agriculture 29.89
Grains -26.32
Softs 44.24
Precious Metals 42.66
Livestock -2.30
Precious Metals 6.29
Livestock -3.54
Industrial Metals 0.76
Energy 19.12
Commodity 21.36
Grains 23.61
Precious Metals 25.96
Agriculture -27.47
Precious Metals 29.20
Agriculture 38.49
Commodity -13.32
Agriculture 3.98
Commodity -9.52
Softs 0.43
Commodity 9.15
Precious Metals 20.44
Agriculture 14.25
Energy 20.69
Livestock -28.41
Commodity 18.91
Grains 30.28
Softs -13.97
Industrial Metals 0.67
Industrial Metals -13.63
Commodity -6.35
Precious Metals 7.40
Softs 9.31
Commodity 2.07
Commodity 16.23
Softs -28.43
Agriculture 13.72
Commodity 16.83
Agriculture -14.35
Commodity -1.06
Agriculture -14.28
Agriculture -6.38
Softs 3.67
Agriculture 1.08
Livestock -6.12
Softs -3.45
Commodity -35.65
Grains -1.65
Industrial Metals 16.24
Grains -14.41
Livestock -3.54
Softs -16.86
Precious Metals -6.66
Agriculture -12.85
Livestock -0.26
Softs -11.97
Industrial Metals -9.86
Energy -47.33
Energy -5.30
Livestock 9.27
Energy -15.97
Energy -9.36
Grains -16.90
Grains -11.21
Grains -23.68
Grains -3.32
Energy -41.41
Livestock -10.67
Industrial Metals -48.27
Livestock -15.07
Energy -10.55
Industrial Metals -24.23
Softs -22.39
Precious Metals -30.80
Energy -13.07
Source: Morningstar as of 10/31/14
39
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information. Commodity represented by Bloomberg Commodity Index. Agriculture represented by Bloomberg Agriculture Subindex. Energy represented by Bloomberg Energy Subindex. Grains represented by Bloomberg Grains Subindex. Industrial Metals represented by Bloomberg Industrial Metals Subindex. Livestock represented by Bloomberg Livestock Subindex. Precious Metals represented by Bloomberg Precious Metals Subindex. Softs represented by Bloomberg Softs Subindex.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor Flows Monitor
Fund & ETF Flows by Category Where is the money going?
Top 10 Open-End Mutual Fund Categories by Monthly Flows ($MM) 9/14
Top 10 Exchange-Traded Fund Categories by Monthly Flows ($MM)
1 Mo.
3 Mo.
12 Mo.
1 Mo.
3 Mo.
12 Mo.
Foreign Large Blend
8,346
18,602
73,639
Large Blend
9/14
12,629
18,478
44,353
Diversified Emerging Mkts
2,102
6,939
23,760
Intermediate-Term Bond
2,421
4,577
11,002
2,004
1,277
329
5,080
10,029
Conservative Allocation
1,935
5,406
17,185
Trading-Leveraged Equity
Multisector Bond
1,804
2,848
14,753
Large Value
1,828
World Allocation
1,420
2,707
20,799
Mid-Cap Blend
1,463
191
7,003
Muni National Interm
1,401
3,975
6,078
Foreign Large Blend
1,437
4,072
23,836
Foreign Large Value
1,203
3,642
18,495
Miscellaneous Region
981
1,330
6,068
Energy Limited Partnership
1,135
3,480
11,985
Consumer Defensive
933
712
2,881
Mid-Cap Blend
992
4,803
17,809
Small Blend
879
(428)
(2,443)
Market Neutral
883
2,822
5,413
Latin America Stock
773
939
(225)
Bottom 10 Open-End Mutual Fund Categories by Monthly Flows ($MM) 9/14 Emerging Markets Bond Large Value Nontraditional Bond
Bottom 10 Exchange-Traded Fund Categories by Monthly Flows ($MM)
1 Mo.
3 Mo.
12 Mo.
1 Mo.
3 Mo.
12 Mo.
(764)
1,465
(4,022)
Short Government
9/14
(522)
756
(1,238)
(793)
(2,771)
13,618
Inflation-Protected Bond
(592)
86
(880)
(1,505)
2,429
34,032
Europe Stock
(713)
(3,782)
14,731
Small Growth
(1,714)
(5,166)
(7,741)
Diversified Emerging Mkts
(721)
4,745
(3,231)
Mid-Cap Growth
(2,475)
(6,774)
(7,971)
Commodities Precious Metals
(786)
(658)
(6,043)
Utilities
(820)
(2,502)
(714)
Trading-Leveraged Debt
(874)
(561)
(780)
Equity Energy
(2,037)
(3,098)
2,130
Foreign Large Growth
(2,803)
(4,333)
564
Large Growth
(3,301)
(13,237)
(38,341)
Bank Loan
(3,387)
(9,118)
2,610
Intermediate-Term Bond
(5,250)
5,843
(4,889)
Long Government
(2,841)
(1,050)
1,807
High Yield Bond
(6,768)
(20,307)
(7,679)
Large Growth
(3,389)
(684)
2,325
Source: Morningstar as of 10/31/14
40
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
Glossary of Terms INDEX DEFINITIONS: Barclays Global Aggregate Ex-USD Index is a broad-based measure of global Investment Grade fixed-rate debt investments, excluding USD-denominated debt. Barclays High Yield Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index of non-Investment Grade Municipal bonds traded in the U.S. Barclays Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index of Municipal bonds traded in the U.S. Barclays U.S. Agency Index measures agency securities issued by U.S government agencies, quasi-federal corporations, and corporate or foreign debt guaranteed by the U.S. government. Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index is an unmanaged index of domestic investment-grade bonds, including corporate, government and mortgage-backed securities. Barclays U.S. Aggregate Local Authorities Index measures the performance of U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate debt issued directly or indirectly by local government authorities.
BofA Merrill Lynch UK Gilt Index tracks the performance of GBP denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the UK government in its domestic market. BofA Merrill Lynch European Union Government Bond Index tracks the performance of sovereign debt publicly issued by countries that are members of the European Union. CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tracks the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index measures the performance of a hypothetical buy-write strategy on the S&P 500 Index. Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index is a broadly diversified index tracking futures contracts on physical commodities. FTSE 100 Index is an unmanaged market-capitalization weighted index representing the performance of the 100 largest UK listed blue chip companies, which pass screening for size and liquidity. FTSE All Small Index consists of all the companies in the FTSE SmallCap and FTSE Fledgling indices.
Barclays U.S. Asset Backed Securities (ABS) Index measures ABS with the following collateral type: credit and charge card, auto, and utility loans.
JPMorgan Corporate Emerging Markets Bond Index (CEMBI) Diversified is a market-cap weighted index that measures USD-denominated emerging market corporate bonds.
Barclays U.S. CMBS Investment Grade Index measures the market of conduit and fusion CMBS deals with a minimum current deal size of $300mn.
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) is a market-cap weighted index that measures USD-denominated Brady Bonds, Eurobonds, and traded loans issued by sovereign entities.
Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Index measures USD-denominated, non-Investment Grade corporate securities. Barclays U.S. Corporate Index is an unmanaged index that measures the performance of investment-grade corporate securities within the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index.
JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) Global Diversified is an unmanaged index of local-currency bonds with maturities of more than one year issued by emerging market governments.
Barclays U.S. Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) Index measures agency mortgagebacked pass-through securities issued by GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC.
Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Markets Index is an unmanaged index of emerging markets common stocks.
Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country Asia Pacific Index (MSCI AC Asia Pac) Index is an unmanaged total return, capitalization-weighted index that measures the BofA Merrill Lynch Fixed Rate Preferred Securities Index is an unmanaged index of fixed- performance of stock markets in 15 Pacific region countries, including Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, the Philippines, rate, preferred securities issued in the U.S. Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Thailand.
Barclays U.S. Treasury Index measures public debt instruments issued by the U.S. Treasury.
41
Unless otherwise stated, index returns do not reflect the effect of any applicable sales charges, commissions, expenses, taxes or leverage, as applicable. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
Glossary of Terms INDEX DEFINITIONS: Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Japan Index is an unmanaged index designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japan market. Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World Index is an unmanaged index of equity securities in the developed markets. Morgan Stanley Capital International All Country World (MSCI AC World) Index is an unmanaged free float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets. Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe (MSCI Europe) Index is an unmanaged free float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe. Morgan Stanley Capital International Europe, Australasia, Far East (MSCI EAFE) Index is an unmanaged index of equities in the developed markets, excluding the U.S. and Canada. Nikkei 225 Stock Average Index is unmanaged price-weighted index of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Russell 1000 Index is an unmanaged index of 1,000 U.S. large-cap stocks. Russell 1000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index of 1,000 U.S. large-cap growth stocks. Russell 1000 Value Index is an unmanaged index of 1,000 U.S. large-cap value stocks. Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index of 2,000 U.S. small-cap stocks. Russell 2500 Index is an unmanaged index of approximately 2,500 U.S. small- and mid-cap U.S. stocks. Russell Midcap Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. mid-cap stocks. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is an unmanaged index of large-cap stocks commonly used as a measure of U.S. stock market performance. S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index is an unmanaged index of the institutional leveraged loan market. STOXX Europe 600 Index is a fixed component number index designed to provide a broad yet liquid representation of large, mid and small capitalization companies in Europe. U.S. Dollar Index represented by ICE Futures U.S. Dollar Index which measures the value of the U.S. dollar versus six major foreign currencies including the Euro, Japanese Yen, United Kingdom Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. BofA Merrill Lynch US Inflation-Linked Treasury Index tracks the performance of USD denominated inflation linked sovereign debt publicly issued by the US government.
42
BofA Merrill Lynch Indexes: BofA Merrill Lynch™ indices not for redistribution or other uses; provided "as is", without warranties, and with no liability. Eaton Vance has prepared this report, BofAML does not endorse it, or guarantee, review, or endorse Eaton Vance's products. MSCI Indexes: Source: MSCI. MSCI data may not be reproduced or used for any other purpose. MSCI provides no warranties, has not prepared or approved this report, and has no liability hereunder. TERMS: 10-Year TIPS Break-Even is a measure of the market’s expectations for future U.S. inflation. It is calculated by subtracting the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Security from the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a measure of the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. The CPI is calculated by taking price changes for each item in the predetermined basket and averaging them; the goods are weighted according to their importance. Also referred to as Headline CPI. Core CPI equals CPI, or Headline CPI, less food and energy. prices. Municipal-to-Treasury Yield Ratios are relative value indicators that measure the richness or cheapness of Municipal bond yields to comparable maturity Treasury bond yields. Nominal GDP is a measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given country, in a given year. Nominal Spread is the stated spread over LIBOR paid by a floating-rate loan issuer. Real GDP is an inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given country, in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Secondary Spread is a yield-to-maturity measure that accounts for the current market price of a floating-rate loan. Yield to Worst is a measure which reflects the lowest potential yield earned on a bond without the issuer defaulting. The yield to worst is calculated by making worst-case scenario assumptions by calculating the returns that would be received if provisions, including prepayment, call or sinking fund, are used by the issuer. Velocity of money is the dollar value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) divided by Money Supply (M2).
Unless otherwise stated, index returns do not reflect the effect of any applicable sales charges, commissions, expenses, taxes or leverage, as applicable. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
About Risk Bank Loans – There can be no assurance that the liquidation of collateral securing an investment will satisfy the issuer’s obligation in the event of non-payment or that collateral can be readily liquidated. The ability to realize the benefits of any collateral may be delayed or limited. Commodities – The value of commodities investments will generally be affected by overall market movements and factors specific to a particular industry or commodity including weather, embargoes, tariffs, or health, political, international and regulatory developments. Credit – Investments in income securities may be affected by changes in the creditworthiness of the issuer and are subject to the risk of non-payment of principal and interest. The value of income securities also may decline because of real or perceived concerns about the issuer’s ability to make principal and interest payments. Duration – Securities with longer durations tend to be more sensitive to interest rate changes than securities with shorter durations. Equity – Equity investment values are sensitive to stock market volatility. Foreign – Investments in foreign instruments or currencies can involve greater risk and volatility than U.S. investments because of adverse market, economic, political, regulatory, geopolitical, or other conditions. In emerging countries, these risks may be more significant. Gov’t Agency – While certain U.S. Government-sponsored agencies may be chartered or sponsored by acts of Congress, their securities are neither issued nor guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury. Income Market – An imbalance in supply and demand in the income market may result in valuation uncertainties and greater volatility, less liquidity, widening credit spreads and a lack of price transparency in the market. There generally is limited public information about Municipal issuers. Inflation-Linked – Interest payments on inflation-linked securities may vary widely and will fluctuate as principal and interest are adjusted for inflation. Investments in inflation-linked securities may lose value in the event that the actual rate of inflation is different than the rate of the inflation index. Interest Rate – As interest rates rise, the value of certain income investments is likely to decline. Limited Issuance – BABs – The ability of Municipalities to issue Build America Bonds expired on December 31, 2010 and there can be no certainty as to whether future legislation will be enacted that would again permit such issuance. Given the limited issuance of Build America Bonds they may not be actively traded. Lower-Rated – Investments rated below Investment Grade (typically referred to as “junk”) are generally subject to greater price volatility and illiquidity than higher rated investments. Maturity – Longer-term bonds typically are more sensitive to interest rate changes than shorter-term bonds. Negative Duration – A portfolio with negative duration generally incurs a loss when interest rates and yields fall. Preferred Stocks – When interest rates rise, the value of preferred stocks will generally decline. Prepayment – MBS – Mortgage-backed securities are subject to prepayment risk. Prepayment – Bank Loan – Bank Loans are subject to prepayment risk. Real Estate – Changes in real estate values or economic downturns can have a significant negative effect on issuers in the real estate industry, including REITs. Smaller Companies – Smaller companies are generally subject to greater price fluctuations, limited liquidity, higher transaction costs and higher investment risk than larger, established companies.
43
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
About Eaton Vance Eaton Vance Corp. is one of the oldest investment management firms in the United States, with a history dating to 1924. Eaton Vance and its affiliates offer individuals and institutions a broad array of investment strategies and wealth management solutions. The Companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s long record of exemplary service, timely innovation and attractive returns through a variety of market conditions has made Eaton Vance the investment manager of choice for many of todayâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s most discerning investors.
44
Data provided is for informational use only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See end of report for important additional information.
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor
For More Information Mutual Funds are distributed by Eaton Vance Distributors, Inc. Two International Place, Boston, MA 02110, (800) 225-6265. Member FINRA/ SIPC. Before investing, investors should consider carefully the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of a mutual fund. This and other important information is contained in the prospectus and summary prospectus which can be obtained from a financial advisor. Prospective investors should read the prospectus carefully before investing. Eaton Vance Management (EVM) is an investment advisor with its headquarters located at Two International Place, Boston, MA 02110. This material is for illustrative and informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular securities or to adopt any particular investment strategy. Investing entails risks and there can be no assurance that EVM or its affiliates will achieve profits or avoid incurring losses. Visit eatonvance.com/MarketMonitor for more information or to subscribe for monthly updates.
Š2014 Eaton Vance Distributors, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC eatonvance.com 14439 11.06.14
45