McGOWANGROUP ASSET MANAGEMENT
NetWorth Radio The CashFlow Revolution™ Subscription
Table of Contents Market Commentary MGAM Weekly Economic Update …………………………………………………………………………
Page 3
JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Excerpts ……………………………………………………………
Page 5
Guggenheim – Market Perspectives ……………………………………………………………………..
Page 15
Investment Information Cash Flow Strategies ………………………………………………………………………………………….…
Page 21
Candidate List ………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Page 25
Dividend Report …………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Page 29
Disclosures Disclosures ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Page 35
2
200 Crescent Court #657 Dallas, TX 75201 Phone: (214) 720-4400 Fax: (214) 720-4420 info@themcgowangroup.com
WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE December 16, 2013 “MINI-BARGAIN” PASSES HOUSE, HEADS FOR SENATE Last week, the congressional budget committee headed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) succeeded where its 2011 predecessor had failed – it reached a deal, albeit a small-scale one. The House passed its budget bill by a 332-94 vote Thursday night; the legislation heads for the Senate this week. If made law, it will reduce the federal deficit by $23 billion during the next 10 years while halving 2014 sequestration cuts to defense spending and non-defense discretionary spending. (Other scheduled cuts in mandatory federal spending will proceed.) This deal doesn’t raise taxes, and it doesn’t extend unemployment insurance, which could expire on December 28 for 1.3 million Americans. Federal spending would increase by $45 billion next year as a result of the agreement.1,2 FALL BRINGS BETTER RETAIL SALES The 0.7% November gain was the biggest recorded by the Commerce Department in five months and brought the year-over-year improvement to 4.7%. Minus auto sales, the gain was still 0.4%. October’s retail sales gain was revised up to 0.6%.3 PRODUCER PRICES RETREAT AGAIN The Producer Price Index declined 0.1% in November following its 0.2% dip for October. Economists polled by Bloomberg thought the headline PPI would be flat for November, instead of retreating for a third consecutive month. November did bring a 0.1% rise in the core PPI. 4 ROUGH SLEDDING FOR STOCKS SO FAR IN DECEMBER Signals of an improving economy also brought worries about a December taper by the Federal Reserve. As a consequence, the S&P 500 (-1.65% to 1,775.32), NASDAQ (-1.51% to 4,000.98) and Dow (-1.65% to 15,755.36) all staged 5-day retreats.5 THIS WEEK: Monday brings the Federal Reserve’s report on November industrial output; also, Ben Bernanke speaks briefly at the Fed’s Centennial Commemoration. Tuesday, the November CPI comes out along with the December NAHB Housing Market Index. On Wednesday, financial markets around the world will be waiting for the Fed’s latest policy statement; reports on November building permits and September, October and November housing starts will arrive from the Census Bureau. Thursday, NAR puts out its existing home sales report for November, the Conference Board issues its November leading indicator index and new initial jobless claims figures appear; Nike, ConAgra Foods and Pier 1 offer earnings news. Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis makes its final estimate of Q3 GDP.
% CHANGE
Y-T-D
1-YR CHG
5-YR AVG
10-YR AVG
DJIA
+20.23
+19.62
+16.51
+5.69
NASDAQ
+32.50
+33.72
+31.94
+10.53
S&P 500
+24.48
+25.07
+20.36
+6.53
REAL YIELD
12/13 RATE
1 YR AGO
5 YRS AGO
10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS
0.72%
-0.73%
2.43%
1.91% 6,7,8,9
Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 12/13/13 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. Citations 1 - swampland.time.com/2013/12/12/house-passes-budget-bill-to-increase-spending-reverse-some-automatic-cuts/ [12/12/13] 2 - washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/10/heres-whats-in-paul-ryan-and-patty-murrays-mini-budget-deal/ [12/10/13] 3 - marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rise-07-in-november-2013-12-12-8913022 [12/12/13] 4 - reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us-producerprices-idUSBRE9BC0HJ20131213 [12/13/13] 5 - fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=c9057f47-0e42-42ab-b939-e66c8ff9f833 [12/13/13] 6 - usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/13/13] 9 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/13/13] This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
Fixed Income Sector Returns
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
High Yield
EMD
EMD
High Yield
TIPS
Treas.
29.0%
11.9%
12.3%
11.8%
11.6%
13.7%
58.2%
EMD
Treas.
MBS
EMD
High Yield
26.9%
11.1%
Asset Alloc. 9 8% 9.8%
Fixed In ncome
TIPS 8.4%
Asset Alloc. 3.5%
TIPS
TIPS
MBS
8 5% 8.5%
2 8% 2.8%
5 2% 5.2%
Asset Alloc. 6.2%
Treas. 2.8%
Corp.
Corp.
Muni
8.2%
5.4%
2.7%
Muni
10.0%
MBS
High Yield 2.7%
Asset Alloc. 5.1% Muni 4.7% Barclays Agg 4.3%
5.7%
4.7%
Barclays Agg 4.1%
Barclays Agg 4.3%
MBS
Muni
3.1%
4.1%
Barclays Agg 2.4%
Treas.
Treas.
Corp.
TIPS
2.2%
3.5%
1.7%
0.4%
9.0%
8.3%
Barclays Agg 7 0% 7.0%
Barclays Agg 5 2% 5.2%
MBS
Muni
6.9%
1.5%
Asset Alloc. 6.4%
Asset Alloc. -0.8%
EMD
TIPS
5.2%
-2.4%
2009
2012
YTD '13
3Q13
TIPS
EMD
High Yield
High Yield
EMD
EMD
15.1%
13.6%
17.9%
3.7%
2.3%
200.3%
11.6%
EMD
EMD
Muni
High Yield
MBS
EMD
High Yield
High Yield
34.2%
12.8%
12.3%
15.8%
-1.0%
1.4%
174.3%
10.6%
Asset Alloc. 95 1% 95.1%
Asset Alloc. 6 9% 6.9%
High Yield High Yield
Corp.
Corp.
Treas.
Corp.
18 7% 18.7%
9 0% 9.0%
9 8% 9.8%
9 8% 9.8%
Asset Alloc. 15.3%
Asset Alloc. 7.8%
Asset Alloc. 9.1%
Asset Alloc. 7.7%
Corp.
TIPS
8.1%
7.0%
TIPS 11.4%
TIPS
9.9%
6.3%
Corp.
Corp.
Corp.
2.6%
4.3%
4.6%
-4.9%
Treas.
Muni
EMD
3.1%
4.3%
-14.7%
-26.2%
Barclays Agg 6.5%
Muni
MBS
1.9%
10-yrs. '03 - '12 Cum. Ann.
2011
Barclays Agg 5.9%
High Yield High Yield
2010
Barclays Agg 7.8%
Muni 5.7%
Barclays Agg -1.9% 1 9%
MBS 1 0% 1.0%
TIPS
TIPS
-2.0%
Asset Alloc. 0.8%
90.4%
6.7%
Muni
Corp.
Corp.
Corp.
-2.1%
0.8%
84.7%
6.3%
Muni
Muni
Muni
Treas.
Asset Alloc. -2.3%
Treas.
EMD
5.9%
7.0%
Barclays Agg 4.2%
MBS
MBS
MBS
MBS
EMD
5.9%
5.4%
6.2%
2.6%
Treas.
Muni
High Yield
-3.6%
4.0%
5.0%
0.7%
Corp.
TIPS
-2.6%
0.7%
70.2%
5.5%
Barclays Agg 65.7%
Barclays Agg 5.2%
MBS
MBS
-5.2%
Barclays Agg 0.6%
64.1%
5.1%
Treas.
TIPS
Treas.
Treas.
Treas.
2.0%
-6.7%
0.1%
59.0%
4.7%
Source: Barclays Capital, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Fixed income sectors shown above are provided by Barclays Capital and are represented by: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index; MBS: Fixed Rate MBS Index; Corporate: U.S. Corporates; Municipals: Muni Bond 10-Year Index; Emerging Debt: Emerging Markets USD Index; High Yield: Corporate High Yield Index; Treasuries: Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury; TIPS: Barclays Capital TIPS. The “Asset Allocation” portfolio assumes the following weights: 10% in MBS, 20% in Corporate, 15% in Municipals, 10% in Emerging Debt, 10% in High Yield, 25% in Treasuries, 10% in TIPS. Asset allocation portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.” 5
30
Data are as of 9/30/13.
Federal Finances The 2013 Federal Budget
Federal Budget Surplus/Deficit % of GDP, 1990 – 2023, 2013 CBO Baseline
CBO Baseline forecast, trillions USD
-12%
$4.0
2013 estimate: -3.9%
-10%
Econom my
$3.5
Total Spending: $3.5tn Other $359bn (10%)
Forecast
-8% -6%
Borrowing: $642bn (19%)
$3.0
Net Int.: $223bn (6%)
$ (7%) Other: $237bn
$2.5
Non-defense Non defense Disc Disc.:: $461bn (13%) Defense: $751bn (22%)
Social Insurance: $952bn (28%)
-4% -2% 0% 2% 4%
$2.0
'90
'94
'98
'02
'06
'10
2013 estimate: 72.1%
70%
2023: 71.1% 60%
$1.0
$0.5
Medicare & Medicaid: $852bn (25%)
Income: $1,333bn (39%)
50% 40% 30%
$0.0 Total Government Spending
Sources of Financing
'90
'94
'98
'02
'06
'10
'14
'18
Source: U.S. Treasury, BEA, OMB, CBO, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2013 Federal Budget is based on the CBO’s May 2013 Baseline Scenario. Other spending includes, but is not limited to, health insurance subsidies, income security, and federal civilian and military retirement. Note: Years shown are fiscal years (Oct. 1 through Sep. 30). 2013 numbers in right hand charts are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.”
22
'22
Forecast
Corp.: $291bn (8%) Social Security: $809bn (23%)
'18
Federal Net Debt (Accumulated Deficits) % of GDP, 1990 – 2023, 2013 CBO Baseline, end of fiscal yyear 80%
$1.5
'14
Data are as of 9/30/13.
6
'22
Economic Growth and the Composition of GDP Components of GDP
Real GDP % chg at annual rate
20-yr avg. 2Q13
$18,000
3.1% Housing g
8%
$16,000
12.7% Investment ex-housing
6%
$14,000
10%
Real GDP:
Econom my
2Q13 nominal GDP, billions USD
2.6%
2.5%
$639 bn of o tp t lost output
4%
$12,000
2%
$10,000
0%
$8,000
-2%
$1,323 bn of output recovered
-4%
$6,000
18.7% Gov’t Spending
68.6% 68 6% Consumption
$4,000
-6%
$2,000
-8%
$0
-10%
-$2,000
- 3.1% Net Exports '04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Source: BEA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. GDP values shown in legend are % change vs vs. prior quarter annualized and reflect 2Q13 GDP. GDP “Guide to the Markets – U.S.” Data are as of 9/30/13.
7
18
Corporate Profits and Leverage S&P 500 Earnings Per Share
2Q13: $26.36
Equities
Operating basis, quarterly
Includes inventory and capital consumption adjustments 11%
2Q07: $24.06
$26
Adjusted After-Tax Corporate Profits (% of GDP)
2Q13: 10.0%
10% 9%
$23
8% 7%
$20
50-yr. avg.: 6.3%
6% 5%
$17
4% 3% '65
$14
'70
'75
'80
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
Total Leverage S&P 500, ratio of total debt to total equity, quarterly
$11
220% 200%
$8 180%
Average: 169%
160%
$5
140%
$2
2Q13: 104%
120% 100%
-$1 '01
'03
'05
'07
'09
'11
'13
80% '94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EPS levels are based on operating earnings per share. Most recently available data is 1Q13 as 2Q13 are Standard & Poor’s preliminary estimates. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.”
10
Data are as of 9/30/13.
8
Consumer Finances Consumer Balance Sheet Trillions of dollars outstanding, not seasonally adjusted $90
Total Assets: $88.4tn
3Q-’07 Peak: $83.2tn 1Q ’09 1Q09 Low: $69.7tn $69 7tn
Household Debt Service Ratio Debt payments as % of disposable personal income, seasonally adjusted 15%
3Q07: 14.0%
14%
Econom my
$80
Homes: 24%
13%
$70
12%
Other Tangible: 6% $60
11%
3Q13*: 10.4%
Deposits: 10% 10% '80
$50
$40
Other Non-revolving: 1% Revolving (e.g.: credit cards): 6% Auto Loans: 6% Other Liabilities: 9% Student Debt: 9%
$30
Other Financial Assets: 39%
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
3Q13*: $76,442 $76 442
3Q07: 3Q07 $69,028
$80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $ $40,000
Total Liabilities: $13.5tn $30,000
$10
Mortgages: 69% $0
'85
Household Net Worth Billions USD, saar
Pension Funds: 21%
$20
1Q80: 11 1% 11.1%
$20,000 $10,000
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
Source: (Left) FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data includes households and nonprofit organizations. (Right) BEA, FRB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q13 and 3Q13 household debt service ratio and 3Q13 household net worth are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Values may not sum to 100% due to rounding. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.”
21
Data are as of 9/30/13.
9
'12
The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble Monthly Rent vs. Monthly Mortgage Payment
Home Prices Indexed to 100, seasonally adjusted
Vacant properties
150
$1,100
Case Shiller 20-city
M thl Monthly Mortgage Payment
$ $950
FHFA Purchase Only Average Existing Home
140
$800
3Q13*: $746
Econom my
$650 $500
130
3Q13*: $589
Monthly Rent
$350 $200 '88
120
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Home Inventories Milli Millions, annuall rate, t seasonally ll adjusted dj t d 4.5
110
4.0 3.5 30 3.0
100
2.5 2.0
90 '04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
1.5
Aug. 2013: 2.3 '94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes a 20% down payment at prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates; analysis based on median asking rent and median mortgage payment based on asking price. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *3Q13 rent and mortgage payment values are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. 10 “Guide to the Markets – U.S.”
20
Data are as of 9/30/13.
Global Energy Supply Middle East Energy Production & Chokepoints Percent of global liquid fuel production, 2012*
Econom my
Suez Canal 2.2%
Trillions of cubic meters, USD 25
Shale Gas
20
Iraq 3.9%
Iran 3.9%
15
Other
10
Libya 1.8%
EIA forecast
30
Kuwait 3.4%
Syria 0.2%
U.S. Natural Gas Production
Egypt 0.8%
5
Saudi Arabia 12.9% Strait of Hormuz 17 0% 17.0%
Sudan S d 0.1%
UAE 3.5%
0 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Natural Gas Prices by y Country y USD per mmBTU* $20 $16
Bab el-Mandeb el Mandeb 3.4%
$16.75
$12
$11.03
Major Producers
Major Consum ers
Percent of global total, 2012
Percent of global total, 2012
Saudi Arabia 13% China United States 12% Canada Russia 12% Iran
5% 4% 4%
United States 21% India 4% China 11% Saudi Arabia 3% Japan 5% Brazil 3%
$9.46
$8 $4
$2.27
$2.76
Canada
U.S.
$0 U.K.
Germany
Source: EIA, British Petroleum, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecasts are from the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013. *mmBTU represents 10,000 million British thermal units. Natural gas prices are as of 2012 and are annual averages. *Production numbers as of 2012, while chokepoints are 2011 data. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.”
28
Data are as of 9/30/13.
2020
Japan
11
2025
Asset Class Returns 2003 MS CI EME 56.3% Russe ll 2000 47.3% MS CI EAFE 39.2%
Asset Class
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Ba rc la ys Agg 5.2%
MS CI EME 79.0% MS CI EAFE 32.5%
2010
2011
2012
REITs
REITs
REITs
27.9%
8.3%
Russe ll 2000 26.9%
Ba rc la ys Agg 7.8%
3 1. 6 %
MS CI EME 34.5%
3 5 . 1%
MS CI EME 39.8%
MS CI EME 26.0%
DJ UBS Cmdty 2 1. 4 %
MS CI EME 32.6%
DJ UBS Cmdty 16 . 2 %
MS CI EAFE 20.7%
MS CI EAFE 14 . 0 %
MS CI EAFE 26.9%
MS CI EAFE 11. 6 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 1. 1%
28.0%
MS CI EME 19 . 2 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 9.3%
Asse t Alloc . - 24.0%
Russe ll 2000 27.2%
DJ UBS Cmdty 16 . 8 %
REITs
REITs
Ca sh 1. 8 %
REITs
3Q13
19 . 7 %
Russe ll 2000 27.7%
MS CI EAFE 11. 6 %
MS CI EME 18 . 6 %
S &P 500 19 . 8 %
Russe ll 2000 10 . 2 %
204.6%
11. 8 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 4.5%
MS CI EAFE 17 . 9 %
MS CI EAFE 16 . 6 %
MS CI EME 5.9%
Russe ll 2000 15 2 . 8 %
Russe ll 2000 9.7%
S &P 500 2 . 1%
Russe ll 2000 16 . 3 %
Asse t Alloc . 9.4%
S &P 500 5.2%
MS CI EAFE 13 0 . 3 %
MS CI EAFE 8.7%
3.0%
Asse t Alloc . 4.5%
Asse t Alloc . 117 . 7 %
Asse t Alloc . 8 . 1%
Ma rke t Ne utra l 3.0%
DJ UBS Cmdty 2 . 1%
S &P 500 98.6%
S &P 500 7 . 1%
3 7 . 1%
12 . 2 %
Russe ll 2000 18 . 4 %
S &P 500 28.7%
Asse t Alloc . 12 . 5 %
Asse t Alloc . 8.3%
S &P 500 15 . 8 %
Asse t Alloc . 7.4%
Russe ll 2000 - 33.8%
S &P 500 26.5%
S &P 500 15 . 1%
0 . 1%
S &P 500 16 . 0 %
Asse t Alloc . 2 5 . 1%
S &P 500 10 . 9 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 6 . 1%
Asse t Alloc . 15 . 2 %
Ba rc la ys Agg 7.0%
DJ UBS Cmdty - 35.6%
Asse t Alloc . 22.2%
Asse t Alloc . 12 . 5 %
Asse t Alloc . - 0.6%
Asse t Alloc . 11. 3 %
DJ UBS Cmdty 23.9%
DJ UBS Cmdty 9 . 1%
S &P 500 4.9%
Ma rke t Ne utra l 11. 2 %
S &P 500 5.5%
S &P 500 - 37.0%
DJ UBS Cmdty 18 . 9 %
MS CI EAFE 8.2%
Russe ll 2000 - 4.2%
Ba rc la ys Agg 4.2%
0.0%
Ba rc la ys Agg 0.6%
Ma rke t Ne utra l 7 . 1%
Ma rke t Ne utra l 6.5%
Russe ll 2000 4.6%
MS CI EAFE - 11. 7 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 0.9%
Ba rc la ys Agg - 1. 9 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 0.3%
Ba rc la ys Ba rc la ys Agg Agg 4 . 1% 4.3%
REITs
Ca sh
Ca sh
REITs
4.8%
4.8%
- 37.7%
Russe ll 2000 - 1. 6 %
MS CI EAFE - 4 3 . 1%
3.0%
Ba rc la ys Agg 4.3% DJ UBS Cmdty
REITs
MS CI EME
2 . 1%
- 15 . 7 %
- 53.2%
Ca sh
Ca sh
Ca sh
Ba rc la ys Agg
1. 0 %
1. 2 %
2.4%
Ba rc la ys Ba rc la ys Agg Agg 5.9% 6.5% Ma rke t Ne utra l 4 . 1%
10-yrs. '03 - '12 Cum. Ann.
YTD '13
Russe ll 2000 18 . 3 %
REITs
56
2004
Ca sh
REITs
Ca sh
MS CI EME 376.0%
MS CI EME 16 . 9 %
REITs
REITs
Ba rc la ys Ba rc la ys Agg Agg 65.7% 5.2% Ma rke t Ne utra l 6 1. 5 %
Ma rke t Ne utra l 4.9% DJ UBS Cmdty 4 . 1%
0 . 1%
DJ UBS Cmdty - 13 . 3 %
0 . 1%
MS CI EME - 4 . 1%
0.0%
DJ UBS Cmdty 49.3%
Ca sh
Ma rke t Ne utra l
MS CI EME
DJ UBS Cmdty
DJ UBS Cmdty
REITs
Ca sh
Ca sh
0 . 1%
- 0.8%
- 18 . 2 %
- 1. 1%
- 8.6%
- 2.6%
18 . 2 %
1. 7 %
Ca sh
Ca sh
Ca sh
Source: Russell, Russell MSCI, MSCI Dow Jones, Jones Standard & Poor Poor’s s, Credit Suisse, Suisse Barclays Capital, Capital NAREIT NAREIT, FactSet, FactSet JJ.P. P Morgan Asset Management Management. The “Asset Allocation” portfolio assumes the following weights: 25% in the S&P 500, 10% in the Russell 2000, 15% in the MSCI EAFE, 5% in the MSCI EMI, 25% in the Barclays Capital Aggregate, 5% in the Barclays 1-3m Treasury, 5% in the CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index, 5% in the DJ UBS Commodity Index and 5% in the NAREIT Equity REIT Index. Balanced portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. All data represents total return for stated period. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 9/30/13, except for the CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index, which reflects data through 8/31/13. “10-yrs” returns represent period of 1/1/03 – 12/31/12 showing both cumulative (Cum.) and annualized (Ann.) over the period. Please see disclosure page at end for index definitions. *Market Neutral returns include estimates found in disclosures. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.” Data are as of 9/30/13.
12
Equities
Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index: Valuation Measures Valuation Measure Description P/E Price to Earnings P/B Price to Book P/CF Price to Cash Flow P/S Price to Sales PEG Price/Earnings g to Growth Div. Yield Dividend Yield
Historical Averages 3-year 5-year avg. avg.
Latest*
1-year ago
10-year avg.
15-year avg.
14.3x
12.9x
12.8x
12.9x
14.0x
16.3x
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.5
2.9
9.9
8.9
8.7
8.4
9.6
10.9
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.1
2.1
1.7
1.6
2.2%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.1%
1.9%
S&P 500 Shiller Cyclically Adjusted P/E
S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. Baa Bond Yield
Adjusted using trailing 10-yr. avg. inflation adjusted earnings
14%
50x
S&P 500 Earnings Yield: (Inverse of fwd. fwd P/E) 7.0% 7 0%
12% % 40x
3Q13: 24.3x
30x
6%
10x
7
8%
Average: 19.0x
20x
0x
10%
4%
'55
'60
'65
'70
'75
'80
'85
'90
'95
'00
'05
'10
2%
Moody’s Baa Yield: 5.4% '86
'88
'90
'92 '94
'96
'98
'00 '02
'04
'06 '08
'10
'12
Source: (Top) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Price to Book is price divided by book value per share. Data post-1992 post 1992 include intangibles and are provided by Standard & Poor’s Poor s. Price to Cash Flow is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of cash flow per share for the next 12 months. Price to Sales is calculated as price divided by consensus analyst estimates of sales per share for the next 12 months. PEG Ratio is calculated as NTM P/E divided by NTM earnings growth. Dividend Yield is calculated as consensus analyst estimates of dividends for the next 12 months divided by price. All consensus analyst estimates are provided by FactSet. (Bottom left) Cyclically adjusted P/E uses as reported earnings throughout. *Latest reflects data as of 9/30/2013. (Bottom right) Standard & Poor’s, IBES, Moody’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 13 “Guide to the Markets – U.S.” Data are as of 9/30/13.
Mutual Fund Flows Fund Flows AUM
Billions, USD
YTD 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998
Domestic Equity
5 026 5,026
15
World Equity
1,763
91
3
4
Taxable Bond
2,795
19
254
515
(32)
50
Hybrid
1,126
59
46
M Money M Market k t
2 633 2,633
(68)
(0)
Tax-exempt Bond
(156) (132) (81)
(29)
(149) (65)
(0)
18
101
120
(26)
55
261
176
149
58
28
(80)
139
149
106
71
24
(3)
(22)
53
11
8
137
224
310
(12)
11
69
21
98
45
27
5
40
125
76
(36)
8
59
8
11
15
5
(15)
(7)
17
11
(14)
(12)
15
29
29
12
(25)
41
18
37
48
38
8
9
(36)
(14)
10
654
245
62
375
159
194
235
(124) (525) (539) 637
Cumulative Flows Into Stock & Bond Funds
(157) (263) (46)
Billions, USD, includes both mutual funds and ETFs
Difference Between Flows Into Stock and Bond Funds Billions, USD, U.S. and international funds, monthly
$1,600
$80
Aug ’13: $1,388 billion into bond funds and fixed income ETFs since ’07
$1 400 $1,400
$1,200
Equity flows exceeded bond flows by $36 billion in Aug. Aug 2013
$60 $40
$1,000 $20 $800
Aug. g ’13: $378 billion into stock funds and equity ETFs since ’07
Asset Class
$ $600
59
Bonds
$400
$0 -$20 -$40
$200
Stocks
$0 '07
'08
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
-$60 Nov '08
Sep '09
Jul '10
May '11
Source: Investment Company Institute, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data include flows through August 2013 and exclude ETFs except for the bottom left chart. ICI data are subject to periodic revisions. World equity flows are inclusive of emerging market, global equity and regional equity flows. Hybrid flows include asset allocation, balanced fund, flexible portfolio and mixed income flows. “Guide to the Markets – U.S.” Data are as of 9/30/13.
Mar '12
Jan '13
14
Market Perspectives BY SCOTT MINERD | GLOBAL CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
September 2013
Rising Interest Rates Must End Soon The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has risen by more than 84 percent from May to early September, one of the most violent and rapid increases on record. This spike has caused severe convulsions in the bond market, leading many investors to wonder how long the torment can last. If history is our guide, the answer is that it may be over soon. Investors would be wise to remember that “soon” is a period of time, not a matter of degree. I make this point to be clear that while long-term interest rates still have room to increase in this historic bear market—maybe even significantly—now may be the most opportune time to purchase longer duration fixed-income securities in the past two years.
Largest Rise in 50 Years On June 19, Ben Bernanke amplified signals that the Federal Reserve was preparing to taper bond purchases as part of his roadmap to unwind quantitative easing. His words, intended to calm markets, did just the opposite, spurring an unprecedented rise in rates. Rates began to move sharply higher in early May when the Fed turned hawkish and really took off after Bernanke’s comments. The increase in U.S. Treasury yields of more than 115 percent since their bottom in July 2012 is greater on a percentage basis than any cyclical increase from trough to peak in the past 50 years. Previously, the largest such increase was 94 percent between CONTINUED ON NEXT PAGE MARKET PERSPECTIVES BY SCOT T MINERD
GUGGENHEIMPARTNERS.COM
15
Market Perspectives - September 2013
Page 2
THE GREATEST RISE Over the past 50 years, 10-year Treasury yields have increased more than 20 percent over 200 days a total of 17 times. Studying these cycles, the increase of more than 115 percent since July 2012 is greater on a percentage basis than any other cyclical increase from trough to peak in the past 50 years. The largest cyclical uptrend within the previous 16 cycles was 94 percent between December 2008 and April 2010.
PERCENTAGE INCREASE IN YIELD FROM CYCLICAL TROUGH TO TOP
120% CURRENT CYCLE (JULY 2012-PRESENT)
100%
PREVIOUS 16 CYCLES
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% 0
200
400
600 800 1000 1200 DAYS FROM CYCLICAL TROUGH TO TOP
1400
1600
1800
Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 9/16/2013.
December 2008 and April 2010. With history as our guide, we are now only days from the average length of such bear markets. The average time from trough to peak is 423 days. Now as Fed policymakers meet to discuss tapering asset purchases, it has been 420 days since rates last bottomed in July 2012. Once rates peak, the average decline of the previous 16 interest rate cycles is 35 percent. That means, if 3 percent was the top of the current interest rate cycle we could expect rates to fall below 2 percent before another meaningful sell-off. Similarly, if rates continue to rise and top out at 3.5 percent, the trough could be 2.25 percent if averages hold. Whether rates on 10-year Treasury notes continue to rise from here or not, this could be a relatively good entry point to purchase long-duration bonds.
MARKET PERSPECTIVES BY SCOT T MINERD
GUGGENHEIMPARTNERS.COM
16
Market Perspectives - September 2013
Page 3
HOW FAR CAN RATES FALL? Historically, once interest rates fall, the average drawdown from peak to trough is a decline in rates of 35 percent.
PERCENTAGE DECREASE IN YIELD FROM CYCLICAL TOP TO TROUGH
0% -10% -20% -30% AVERAGE DRAWDOWN = -35% -40% -50% -60% 70%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
DAYS FROM CYCLICAL TOP TO TROUGH Source: Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 9/16/2013.
Buying Opportunity Near The reality of how badly higher interest rates are hurting the economy is slowly becoming apparent and may soon prompt a reversal of fortune for bond investors. So, what should an investor do? Now may be the time to consider adding to fixed-income assets, especially longer-duration bonds. Given the strong, negative sentiment, history tells us that a buying opportunity cannot be far away. While there is additional downside risk, no one can pick a top or bottom in markets with complete precision. But if history is any indication, 10-year rates may be heading back to 2.25 percent or lower, meaning the bet may pay off. Why should interest rates decline? Since the Fed turned hawkish in May, higher interest rates have sent mortgage rates skyward. The abrupt rise in mortgage rates is having a material impact on housing activity. With mortgage applications declining, the critical tailwind of housing in the current expansion may soon become a headwind. More than half of all economic growth since last year came from housing-related activity.
MARKET PERSPECTIVES BY SCOT T MINERD
GUGGENHEIMPARTNERS.COM
17
Market Perspectives - September 2013
Page 4
HIGHER INTEREST RATES DETER MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS As interest rates for U.S. 30-year mortgages decline, mortgage applications rise and as interest rates rise, applications for mortgages decline. 100%
QUARTERLY CHANGE IN U.S. MORTGAGE APPLICATION VOLUME
CORRELATI0N COEFFICIENT = -0.76 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20%
3Q2013*
-40% -60% -80% -90
-60
-30 0 30 60 QUARTERLY CHANGE IN U.S. 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE (Bps)
90
120
Source: Mortgage Banks Association, Bloomberg, Guggenheim Investments. Data as of 9/16/2013. *Note: Data for 3Q2013 is based on latest available data.
Additionally, aggregate wages have begun to stagnate, leading to poor retail sales with autos and home suppliers being the sole bright spots. Without the wealth effect from housing to fuel consumption, it will be hard for the economy to overcome increasing challenges associated with the contracting fiscal reality. It is safe to say that if rates move significantly over 3 percent it would be devastating for an already struggling American economy, prompting policymakers and investors to realize the growth the Fed hoped for is nothing more than a mirage. Adding impetus for rates to move lower will be fiscal developments that should translate into lower-than-expected new U.S. Treasury debt issuance. The U.S. federal budget is shrinking, and tax receipts in 2014 are expected to rise thanks to higher taxes and strong capital gains receipts following strong 2013 stock market gains, thus reducing the supply of government debt.
MARKET PERSPECTIVES BY SCOT T MINERD
GUGGENHEIMPARTNERS.COM
18
Market Perspectives - September 2013
Page 5
Could recent market convulsions have been avoided? The simple answer is yes. Dr. Bernanke’s expected January 2014 departure as chairman after eight years overseeing unprecedented growth of the Fed’s balance sheet may have left him with an urgent desire to show an exit strategy. Were it not for his impending exit, I suspect he would have otherwise let the economic data unfold for another three or six months before considering tapering.
Investment Implications There has been much talk in recent months of the end of the 30-year bull market in bonds, but the coming bear market likely remains several years away. I believe rates will stay low and hover in a trading pattern for the next three to five years, similar to the 1940s, the period most analogous to today. During the 1940s and early 1950s, interest rates remained artificially low and oscillated between bear and bull markets for nine years. If I am correct, U.S. bond investors should expect yields to similarly remain low for the foreseeable future, but volatility like that seen this year could become a more regular occurrence. In the near-term, if these dynamics play out as I expect, investors might begin planning to add longer duration, high-quality assets such as investment-grade corporate bonds to their portfolios. If rates peak in the near-term and reverse course, these assets, in particular, will be the primary beneficiaries. As we move through the turbulence of tapering and look at the fundamental factors on the horizon, investors must have their antennae up to monitor the timing of these changing dynamics. While I see relief from rising rates soon, now is a time for bond investors to have patience, a watchful eye, and a strong resolve. This year, equities have stolen the spotlight with strong returns, but are now badly in need of consolidation. Meanwhile, fixed-income investors seem overwhelmed with fatigue and have begun to throw in the towel after a discouraging year marked by poor performance and negative returns. This may just be the time to dust off this unloved asset class and consider history. Now may be the best time to buy bonds in years.
MARKET PERSPECTIVES BY SCOT T MINERD
GUGGENHEIMPARTNERS.COM
19
Market Perspectives - September 2013
Page 6
ABOUT THE AUTHOR Scott Minerd joined Guggenheim in 1998. In his role as Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the firm’s investment strategies and oversees client accounts across a broad range of fixed-income and equity securities. Previously, Mr. Minerd was a Managing Director with Credit Suisse First Boston in charge of trading and risk management for the Fixed Income Credit Trading Group. In this position, he was responsible for the corporate bond, preferred stock, money markets, U.S. government agency and sovereign debt, derivatives securities, structured debt and interest rate swaps trading business units. Prior to that, Mr. Minerd was Morgan Stanley’s London based European Capital Markets Products Trading and Risk Manager responsible for Eurobonds, Euro-MTNs, domestic European Bonds, FRNs, derivative securities and money market products in 12 European currencies and Asian markets. Mr. Minerd has also held capital markets positions with Merrill Lynch and Continental Bank. Prior to that, he was a Certified Public Accountant and worked for the public accounting firm of Price Waterhouse. Mr. Minerd is a member of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets, helping advise the NY Fed President and senior management at the bank about the current financial markets and ways the public and private sectors can better understand and mitigate systematic risks. Mr. Minerd also works with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), advising on research and analysis of private sector infrastructure investment, and is a contributing member of the World Economic Forum (WEF). He is a regularly featured guest and contributor to leading financial media outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, Bloomberg, and CNBC, where he shares insights on today’s financial climate. Mr. Minerd holds a B.S. degree in Economics from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, and has completed graduate work at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business and the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. *Assets under management are as of June 30, 2013 and include consulting services for clients whose assets are valued at approximately $39 billion. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy or, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
ABOUT GUGGENHEIM
This article is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice, a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product or as an offer of solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any investment. This article should not be considered research nor is the article intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.
privately held global financial
Guggenheim Partners, LLC, is a services firm with more than $180 billion in assets under management*.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to credit, liquidity, interest rate and, depending on the instrument, counterparty risk. These risks may be increased to the extent fixed income investments are concentrated in any one issuer, industry, region or country. The market value of fixed income investments generally will fluctuate with, among other things, the financial condition of the obligors on the underlying debt obligations, general economic conditions, the condition of certain financial markets, political events, developments or trends in any particular industry and changes in prevailing interest rates. In general, any interest rate increases can cause the price of a debt security to decrease and vice versa.
The firm provides asset management,
The article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners, LLC, its subsidiaries, or its affiliates. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and nonproprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy. The value of any financial instruments or markets mentioned in the article can fall as well as rise. Securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and are neither a recommendation nor an endorsement.
institutions, governments and
Individuals and institutions outside of the United States are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions and should consult with their advisors as appropriate. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2013, Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
investment banking and capital markets services, insurance services, institutional finance and investment advisory solutions to agencies, corporations, investment advisors, family offices and individuals. Guggenheim Partners is headquartered in New York and Chicago and serves clients around the world from more than 25 offices in eight countries.
GPIM10164 MARKET PERSPECTIVES BY SCOT T MINERD
GUGGENHEIMPARTNERS.COM
20
CASH FLOW STRATEGIES
CASH FLOW (MODERATE) INSURED MUNICIPAL BONDS 25.00%
GLOBAL/DOMESTIC REAL ESTATE FUNDS 25.00%
SENIOR LOAN/PREFERRED/TAXABLE BOND FUNDS 25.00%
Disclosures:
GLOBAL DIVIDEND STOCKS 15.00%
CASH AND CD's 10.00%
Disclosures:
The allocation shown above is hypothetical in nature and for illustrative purposes only. It does not represent the actual account of any particular client. This material has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any trading security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request. Market values of both equity and fixed income investments will fluctuate due changes in market condition and other factors. Asset Allocation and diversification cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. Stocks of small and mid-cap companies are typically more volatile than stocks of larger companies. They often involve higher risks because they may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.Global/International investing may involve risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability, uncertain economic conditions, different accounting standards, and other risks that are not typically assoicated with domestic investments. Fixed income investments are subject to default and interest rate risk. High-yield, non-investment grade bonds are only suitable for aggressive investors willing to take greater risks, which could result in loss of principal and interest payments. Stock dividends are not guaranteed. Please contact us to discuss an appropriate allocation for your situation. McGowanGroup Asset Management 200 Crescent Court Suite 657 Dallas, TX 75201 (866) 550-8008 McGowanGroup Asset Management, Inc. is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through Spire Securities, LLC an independent broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC
21
GROWTH WITH INCOME (AGGRESSIVE) GLOBAL/DOMESTIC REAL ESTATE FUNDS 30%
MLP'S, ROYALTY TRUSTS, PIPELINES 10%
GLOBAL DIVIDEND STOCKS 30%
SENIOR LOAN/PREFERRED/TAXABLE BOND FUNDS
20%
CASH 10% Disclosures: The allocation shown above is hypothetical in nature and for illustrative purposes only. It does not represent the actual account of any particular client. This material has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any trading security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request. Market values of both equity and fixed income investments will fluctuate due changes in market condition and other factors. Asset Allocation and diversification cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. Stocks of small and mid-cap companies are typically more volatile than stocks of larger companies. They often involve higher risks because they may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.Global/International investing may involve risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability, uncertain economic conditions, different accounting standards, and other risks that are not typically assoicated with domestic investments. Fixed income investments are subject to default and interest rate risk. High-yield, non-investment grade bonds are only suitable for aggressive investors willing to take greater risks, which could result in loss of principal and interest payments. Stock dividends are not guaranteed. Please contact us to discuss an appropriate allocation for your situation. McGowanGroup Asset Management 200 Crescent Court Suite 657 Dallas, TX 75201 (866) 550-8008 McGowanGroup Asset Management, Inc. is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through Spire Securities, LLC an independent broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC
22
CONSERVATIVE
CD'S, MTN'S, MTP'S 25%
INSURED MUNICIPAL BONDS 50%
CASH 25%
Disclosures: The allocation shown above is hypothetical in nature and for illustrative purposes only. It does not represent the actual account of any particular client. This material has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any trading security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request. Market values of both equity and fixed income investments will fluctuate due changes in market condition and other factors. Asset Allocation and diversification cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. Stocks of small and mid-cap companies are typically more volatile than stocks of larger companies. They often involve higher risks because they may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.Global/International investing may involve risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability, uncertain economic conditions, different accounting standards, and other risks that are not typically assoicated with domestic investments. Fixed income investments are subject to default and interest rate risk. High-yield, non-investment grade bonds are only suitable for aggressive investors willing to take greater risks, which could result in loss of principal and interest payments. Stock dividends are not guaranteed. Please contact us to discuss an appropriate allocation for your situation. McGowanGroup Asset Management 200 Crescent Court Suite 657 Dallas, TX 75201 (866) 550-8008 McGowanGroup Asset Management, Inc. is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through Spire Securities, LLC an independent broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC
23
ULTRA CONSERVATIVE
INSURED MUNICIPAL BONDS 50%
CASH 50%
Disclosures: The allocation shown above is hypothetical in nature and for illustrative purposes only. It does not represent the actual account of any particular client. This material has been prepared and is distributed solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any trading security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. Additional information is available upon request. Market values of both equity and fixed income investments will fluctuate due changes in market condition and other factors. Asset Allocation and diversification cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. Stocks of small and mid-cap companies are typically more volatile than stocks of larger companies. They often involve higher risks because they may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.Global/International investing may involve risks such as currency fluctuations, political instability, uncertain economic conditions, different accounting standards, and other risks that are not typically assoicated with domestic investments. Fixed income investments are subject to default and interest rate risk. High-yield, non-investment grade bonds are only suitable for aggressive investors willing to take greater risks, which could result in loss of principal and interest payments. Stock dividends are not guaranteed. Please contact us to discuss an appropriate allocation for your situation. McGowanGroup Asset Management 200 Crescent Court Suite 657 Dallas, TX 75201 (866) 550-8008 McGowanGroup Asset Management, Inc. is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through Spire Securities, LLC an independent broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC
24
Cash Flow Strategy Closed End Funds US Bond Funds
CLOSED END FUND ADVENT CLAYMORE CVT SEC& INC NUVEEN PREFERRED INCOME OPPO NUVEEN CREDIT STRATEGIES INC FLAHERTY & CRUMRINE DYNAMIC DOUBLELINE INCOME SOLUTIONS FIRST TRUST INTERMEDIATE DUR BLACKROCK CORPORATE HY FD VI INVESCO DYNAMIC CREDIT OPPO DWS HIGH INCOME OPPORTUNITIE BLACKROCK CREDIT ALLOCATION
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
YIELD
MARKET PRICE
NET ASSET VALUE
DISCOUNT/ PREMIUM
NAV YTD RETURN
11/30/13 NAV RETURN SHARE INCEPTION PRICE BEST ANNUALIZED YEAR %
SHARE PRICE WORST YEAR %
SYMBOL
ASSET CLASS
12/31/12 NAV VALUE
AVK
CONVERTIBLE/HIGH YIELD
$17.67
6.20%
$18.17
$19.97
‐9.01%
19.35%
6.94%
55.84%
‐47.04%
JPC
CORPORATE/PREFERRED
$10.28
8.76%
$8.70
$9.98
‐12.83%
3.87%
5.32%
84.27%
‐51.74%
JQC
CORPORATE/PREFERRED
$9.88
7.44%
$9.38
$10.20
‐8.04%
10.64%
5.19%
78.60%
‐49.30%
DFP
TAXABLE INCOME‐PREFERREDS
N/A
9.41%
$19.90
$22.75
‐12.53%
N/A
‐1.85%
N/A
N/A
DSL
TAXABLE INCOME‐MULTI‐SECTOR
N/A
8.85%
$20.35
$22.62
‐10.04%
N/A
‐1.85%
N/A
N/A
FPF
TAXABLE INCOME‐PREFERREDS
N/A
8.95%
$20.53
$23.50
‐12.64%
N/A
1.19%
N/A
N/A
HYT
CORPORATE‐HIGH YIELD
$12.46
8.24%
$11.74
$13.06
‐10.11%
11.22%
9.62%
92.56%
‐38.43%
VTA
TAXABLE INCOME‐SENIOR LOAN
$12.99
7.17%
$12.54
$13.66
‐8.20%
11.90%
3.49%
91.12%
‐49.58%
DHG
TAXABLE INCOME‐HIGH YIELD
$16.23
7.90%
$14.15
$16.35
‐13.46%
7.52%
‐3.18%
65.62%
‐65.50%
BTZ
TAXABLE INCOME‐INVESTMENT GRADE
$15.27
7.62%
$12.64
$14.91
‐15.22%
2.92%
1.70%
57.51%
‐43.95%
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
Global Funds
CLOSED END FUND NUVEEN DIVERSIFIED CURRENCY ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN GL HI INC WESTERN ASSET EMERGING MARKE WESTERN ASSET EMERGING MARKE WESTERN ASSET GLOBAL HIGH IN MORGAN STANLEY EMERGING MARK
SYMBOL
JGT AWF ESD EMD
ASSET CLASS GLOBAL HIGH YIELD/INVESTMENT GRADE GLOBAL HIGH YIELD/INVESTMENT GRADE Non‐US/Other‐Emerging Market Income Non‐US/Other‐Emerging Market Income
12/31/12 NAV VALUE
11/30/13 NAV RETURN SHARE INCEPTION PRICE BEST ANNUALIZED YEAR %
SHARE PRICE WORST YEAR %
YIELD
MARKET PRICE
NET ASSET VALUE
DISCOUNT/ PREMIUM
NAV YTD RETURN
$14.69
10.17%
$10.43
$12.35
‐15.55%
‐10.63%
2.26%
22.94%
‐8.03%
$15.36
7.98%
$14.97
$15.39
‐2.73%
6.91%
12.04%
94.90%
‐31.02%
$22.42
8.55%
$16.96
$19.16
‐11.48%
‐8.91%
8.52%
53.55%
‐20.62%
$15.83
8.56%
$11.98
$13.68
‐12.43%
‐8.92%
12.82%
67.36%
‐26.94%
EHI
Non‐US/Other‐Global Income
$13.93
9.37%
$12.44
$13.26
‐6.18%
2.92%
8.34%
71.25%
‐30.71%
EDD
GLOBAL INVESTMENT GRADE
$18.54
7.47%
$13.44
$15.74
‐14.61%
‐11.22%
5.12%
42.03%
‐28.97% 25
Cash Flow Strategy Closed End Funds Municipal Bond Funds
CLOSED END FUND NUVEEN BUILD AMERICAN BOND NUVEEN BUILD AMERICA BOND OP BLACKROCK BUILD AMERICA BOND GUGGENHEIM BUILD AMERICA BON NUVEEN DVD ADVANTAGE MUNI FD NUVEEN MUNI ADVANTAGE FUND NUVEEN QUALITY INCOME MUNI NUVEEN MUNI MKT OPPORTUNITY NUVEEN DIVIDEND ADV MUNI 3 BLACKROCK MUNICIPAL INCOME I BLACKROCK MUNIHOLDINGS QU II BLACKROCK MUNIHOLDINGS CA QU BLACKROCK MUNIYIELD NY QUALI
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
SYMBOL
ASSET CLASS
12/31/12 NAV VALUE
YIELD
MARKET PRICE
NET ASSET VALUE
DISCOUNT/ PREMIUM
NAV YTD RETURN
NAV RETURN INCEPTION ANNUALIZED
SHARE SHARE PRICE PRICE BEST WORST YEAR YEAR % %
NBB
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$22.28
7.61%
$18.24
$20.39
‐10.54%
‐2.95%
8.62%
20.32%
9.88%
NBD
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$23.44
7.19%
$18.98
$21.55
‐11.93%
‐2.91%
10.18%
25.08%
6.46%
BBN
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$23.41
8.55%
$18.41
$20.94
‐12.08%
‐5.01%
10.31%
32.81%
14.83%
GBAB
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$23.81
8.64%
$19.19
$21.82
‐12.05%
‐2.09%
11.44%
26.43%
14.96%
NAD
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$16.13
7.00%
$12.51
$14.26
‐12.27%
‐6.79%
6.31%
45.78%
‐20.44%
NMA
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$15.76
6.69%
$12.05
$13.89
‐13.25%
‐7.32%
6.87%
47.34%
‐21.92%
NQU
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$16.16
6.50%
$12.14
$14.03
‐13.47%
‐8.87%
6.49%
28.78%
‐23.80%
NMO
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$15.31
6.59%
$11.75
$13.60
‐13.60%
‐6.65%
6.52%
38.86%
‐20.56%
NZF
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$16.03
5.72%
$12.17
$14.21
‐14.36%
‐7.33%
6.25%
44.33%
‐21.18%
BAF
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$16.65
6.58%
$12.54
$14.37
‐12.73%
‐9.35%
5.75%
47.20%
‐21.07%
MUE
MUNICIPAL NATIONAL
$15.27
7.20%
$11.73
$13.26
‐11.54%
‐8.27%
5.06%
46.84%
‐16.73%
MUC
MUNICIPAL SINGLE STATE
$16.37
6.59%
$13.05
$14.75
‐11.53%
‐4.97%
5.79%
46.80%
‐24.57%
MYN
MUNICIPAL SINGLE STATE
$14.95
7.11%
$12.01
$13.16
‐8.74%
‐6.90%
5.85%
45.39%
‐26.21%
26
Cash Flow Strategy Closed End Funds Equity Funds CLOSED END FUND
SYMBOL
ASSET CLASS
12/31/12 NAV VALUE
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
11/30/13
YIELD
MARKET PRICE
NET ASSET VALUE
DISCOUNT/ PREMIUM
NAV YTD RETURN
KAYNE ANDERSON ENERGY DEVELO
KED
ENERGY GROWTH/INCOME
$28.46
6.46%
$28.70
$28.46
0.84%
25.50%
11/30/13 NAV RETURN INCEPTION ANNUALIZED 10.90%
CUSHING MLP TOTAL RETURN FUN
SRV
ENERGY GROWTH/INCOME
$6.25
11.09%
$8.09
$6.97
16.07%
22.55%
‐4.80%
SHARE PRICE BEST YEAR %
SHARE PRICE WORST YEAR %
116.73%
‐64.88%
120.35%
‐69.28%
TORTOISE MLP FUND INC
NTG
ENERGY GROWTH/INCOME
$23.91
6.19%
$27.22
$27.96
‐2.65%
24.13%
11.47%
13.68%
1.67%
BLACKROCK INTERNATIONAL GROW GABELLI DIVIDEND & INCOME TR EATON VANCE TAX ADV GL DVD O EATON VANCE TAX‐ADV DVD INC JOHN HANCOCK T/A DVD INCOME
BGY GDV ETO EVT HTD
US EQUITY COVERED CALL EQUITY TAX ADVANTAGED EQUITY TAX ADVANTAGED EQUITY TAX ADVANTAGED EQUITY TAX ADVANTAGED
$8.50 $18.58 $22.74 $18.47 $19.79
8.37% 5.62% 7.31% 6.91% 6.72%
$8.03 $21.45 $24.69 $18.72 $17.68
$9.11 $23.64 $26.31 $21.02 $20.16
‐11.86% ‐9.26% ‐6.16% ‐10.94% ‐12.30%
13.66% 32.90% 22.44% 20.02% 7.35%
0.89% 8.58% 10.66% 8.14% 7.96%
63.67% 40.24% 49.68% 50.42% 42.82%
‐41.95% ‐45.75% ‐53.56% ‐53.43% ‐35.26%
EATON VANCE T/A GL DVD INCM CALAMOS GLOBAL DYNAMIC INCOM MACQUARIE GLOBAL INFR TOT RT
ETG CHW MGU
GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME GLOBAL GROWTH & INCOME GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
$14.98 $9.38 $21.72
7.54% 8.34% 5.82%
$16.40 $8.92 $21.95
$17.70 $10.16 $24.98
‐7.34% ‐12.20% ‐12.13%
25.69% 15.51% 19.77%
7.15% 3.24% 7.64%
44.72% 53.56% 51.16%
‐55.63% ‐47.34% ‐56.67%
MACQUARIE/FT GL INT/UT DV IN
MFD
GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE
$16.11
8.64%
$16.02
$16.66
‐3.84%
12.48%
8.84%
36.92%
‐55.60%
ALLIANZGI NFJ DIVIDEND INTER FIRST TRUST ENH EQUITY INC EATON VANCE TAX MAN GLBL BR
NFJ FFA ETW
US EQUITY COVERED CALL US EQUITY COVERED CALL US EQUITY COVERED CALL
$17.26 $13.27 $12.37
10.12% 6.80% 9.75%
$17.84 $13.22 $11.98
$18.70 $15.09 $13.04
‐4.60% ‐12.39% ‐8.13%
16.72% 19.17% 14.76%
5.39% 5.46% 5.80%
31.66% 45.22% 59.66%
‐37.77% ‐37.06% ‐33.23%
EATON VANCE TAX‐MANAGED GLOB
EXG
US EQUITY COVERED CALL
$10.33
9.85%
$9.90
$10.96
‐9.67%
15.47%
3.67%
49.28%
‐30.87%
ING GLOBAL EQUITY & PR OPPT GUGGENHEIM ENHANCED EQUITY I LIBERTY ALL STAR EQUITY FUND
IGD GPM USA
US EQUITY COVERED CALL US EQUITY COVERED CALL US EQUITY GENERAL EQUITY
$9.61 $8.93 $5.35
10.21% 10.50% 6.96%
$9.03 $9.16 $5.74
$10.05 $9.50 $6.55
‐10.15% ‐3.58% ‐12.37%
13.67% 15.03% 29.77%
4.04% 1.57% 8.03%
48.24% 23.62% 57.28%
‐32.23% ‐39.98% ‐43.89%
CALAMOS STRAT TOT RETURN FD
CSQ
US EQUITY GROWTH & INCOME
$10.52
7.84%
$10.74
$12.13
‐11.46%
22.74%
6.05%
56.82%
‐49.28%
BLACKROCK HEALTH SCIENCES TR
BME
US EQUITY‐HEALTH/BIOTECH
$27.88
4.51%
$34.15
$36.07
‐5.32%
34.10%
12.41%
41.81%
‐20.71%
GABELLI HEALTHCARE&WELLNESS
GRX
US EQUITY‐HEALTH/BIOTECH
$9.22
3.79%
$10.70
$11.81
‐9.40%
31.61%
11.11%
36.80%
‐28.55%
H & Q HEALTHCARE INVESTORS
HQH
US EQUITY‐HEALTH/BIOTECH
$18.44
7.74%
$26.05
$25.60
1.76%
49.64%
11.79%
59.91%
‐37.59%
H & Q LIFE SCIENCES INVSTRS
HQL
US EQUITY‐HEALTH/BIOTECH
$14.99
8.13%
$19.77
$20.55
‐3.80%
47.74%
9.45%
80.78%
‐36.09%
COHEN & STEERS INFRASTRUCTUR
UTF
US EQUITY INFRASTRUCTURE
$20.58
7.21%
$20.13
$23.16
‐13.08%
18.18%
9.69%
68.53%
‐57.19%
ING INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRIA
IDE
US EQUITY INFRASTRUCTURE
$17.94
9.57%
$16.97
$19.02
‐10.78%
13.44%
8.76%
17.60%
‐13.67%
BLACKROCK UTILITY AND INFRAS
BUI
US EQUITY‐ UTILITIES
$19.79
8.28%
$17.55
$20.31
‐13.59%
10.16%
10.79%
‐3.50%
‐3.50%
DUFF & PHELPS GLOBAL UTILITY
DPG
US EQUITY‐ UTILITIES
$18.56
7.29%
$19.24
$21.28
‐9.59%
20.75%
11.41%
0.64%
0.64%
ALPINE GLOBAL PREMIER PROPER
AWP
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE
$8.01
8.43%
$7.13
$7.96
‐10.43%
6.24%
‐3.58%
78.59%
‐63.64%
COHEN & STEERS REIT & PR
RNP
US EQUITY‐REAL ESTATE
$18.37
7.66%
$15.72
$18.12
‐13.25%
3.40%
7.48%
91.15%
‐60.58%
COHEN & STEERS QUAL INC RLTY
RQI
US EQUITY‐REAL ESTATE
$10.91
7.52%
$9.66
$10.65
‐9.30%
2.29%
7.81%
80.59%
‐68.43%
NEUBERGER BERMAN REAL ESTATE
NRO
US EQUITY‐REAL ESTATE
$5.29
5.45%
$4.42
$5.17
‐14.51%
1.69%
1.02%
101.73%
‐78.23%
Performance data quoted reflects past performance which cannot guarantee future results. Current performance may be lower or higher than quoted. Investment return and principal value is subject to fluctuations with changes in market conditions such that shares may be worth more or less than original cost when sold. Returns are calculated by subtracting the value of a share at the beginning of the period from the value at the end and dividing the difference by the initial value expressing the result as a percentage change. The calculation assumes that all distributions during the period have been reinvested on the payable dates, at NAV or at market price according to how the returns are labeled. The returns do not reflect broker sales charges or commissions. Net asset value (NAV) is total assets less total liabilities divided by the number of shares outstanding. Pease see final page fopr important information on risks of investing in these funds and other important disclosure.
27
Exchange Traded Bonds/Preferreds As of 11/30/2013
MUNIFUND TERM PREFERRED SHARES DESCRIPTION Nuveen Dvd Adv Muni Inco Nuveen Md Premium Inc 2 Nuveen Texas Premium Inc Nuveen Ma Dvd Adv Muni Nuveen Amt-Free Adv Muni
TICKER SYMBOL
RATING
INDUSTRY
PRICE
PAR VALUE
PERCENT DISCOUNT
% YIELD AS OF //2013
COUPON RATE
CORPORATE WEBSITE
NVG2.95 NMY2.9 NTX2.3 NMB2.6 NEA2.85
Aaa AAA Aa2 AAA Aa2 AAA Aa2 AAA Aa1 AAA
Financial Financial Financial Financial Financial
$10.00 $10.10 $10.03 $10.02 $10.01
$10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00 $10.00
0.00% 1.00% 0.30% 0.20% 0.06%
2.95% 2.87% 2.29% 2.59% 2.85%
2.95% 2.90% 2.30% 2.60% 2.85%
http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/MTPPrices.aspx http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/MTPPrices.aspx http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/MTPPrices.aspx http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/MTPPrices.aspx http://www.nuveen.com/CEF/MTPPrices.aspx
TICKER SYMBOL
RATING
INDUSTRY
PRICE
PAR VALUE
PERCENT DISCOUNT
% YIELD AS OF //2013
COUPON RATE
CORPORATE WEBSITE
Baa3 BBB-
Consumer Discretionary
$25.27
$25.00
-1.08
7.42%
7.50%
B1 /*+ B+ /*+
Financials
$25.07
$25.00
7.35%
7.38%
Watch List DESCRIPTION Ford Motor Co Ally Financial Inc
F7.5 ALLY7.375
-0.28
http://www.ford.com/ http://www.gmacfs.com
Yields and market value will fluctuate so that your investment, if sold prior to maturity, may be worth more or less than its original cost.
28
EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES as of November 30, 2013 Mining, Materials, and Chemicals Company Natural Resource Partners Lp Pvr Partners Lp Quimica Y Minera Chil‐Sp Adr Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan Southern Copper Corp United States Steel Corp Aluminum Corp Of China‐Adr
Ticker Symbol NRP PVR SQM POT SCCO X ACH
Sector
Price
Mining Mining Chemicals Chemicals Industrial Metals & Mining Industrial Metals & Mining Industrial Metals & Mining
20.09 24.70 25.01 31.65 25.10 26.81 9.28
Sector
Price
Fixed Line Telecommunications Fixed Line Telecommunications Fixed Line Telecommunications Fixed Line Telecommunications Gas, Water & Multiutilities Fixed Line Telecommunications Fixed Line Telecommunications Fixed Line Telecommunications Electricity Electricity Fixed Line Telecommunications Electricity Fixed Line Telecommunications Electricity Mobile Telecommunications Gas, Water & Multiutilities Fixed Line Telecommunications Mobile Telecommunications Industrial Engineering General Industrials
1.58 4.68 9.25 30.70 16.10 16.43 31.12 35.21 25.31 40.37 49.62 16.57 36.54 38.36 37.09 22.86 19.46 23.24 34.56 40.82
YTD % Chg 8.36% ‐4.93% ‐56.61% ‐22.22% ‐33.70% 12.41% ‐22.75%
Price/ Earnings 11.78 88.36 13.66 13.77 12.04 n/a n/a
Current Yield 10.95% 8.91% 6.05% 4.42% 1.91% 0.75% 0.00%
Dividend Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Semi‐Anl Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Irregular
Annual Dividend 2.20 2.20 1.51 1.40 0.48 0.20 0.00
YTD % Chg ‐59.97% 9.35% 0.81% ‐22.03% 31.54% 21.79% ‐3.24% 4.45% 0.68% 0.47% 14.68% ‐22.14% ‐0.57% 3.26% 47.24% 22.67% ‐19.12% ‐0.17% 27.53% 74.00%
Price/ Earnings 7.30 21.30 11.95 18.91 56.66 n/a 18.72 14.55 15.66 13.91 19.27 19.95 15.61 6.96 15.54 22.97 13.15 13.36 22.38 6.73
Current Yield 8.83% 8.55% 7.17% 7.04% 5.79% 5.74% 5.71% 5.11% 4.90% 4.51% 4.27% 4.11% 4.01% 3.49% 3.03% 2.80% 1.53% 1.46% 1.35% 0.98%
Dividend Frequency Irregular Quarterly Semi‐Annual Quarterly Annual Semi‐Annual Annual Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Semi‐Annual Irregular Annual Semi‐Annual Quarterly Irregular Semi‐Annual Quarterly Quarterly
Annual Dividend 0.14 0.40 0.66 2.16 0.933 0.94 1.78 1.80 1.24 1.82 2.12 0.68 1.47 1.34 1.12 0.64 0.30 0.34 0.47 0.40
Telecom/Utilities Company Oi Sa‐Adr Frontier Communications Corp Telecom New Zealand‐Sp Adr Centurylink Inc Veolia Environnement‐Adr Telefonica Sa‐Spon Adr Chunghwa Telecom Ltd‐Adr At&T Inc Hawaiian Electric Inds P G & E Corp Verizon Communications Inc Cpfl Energia Sa‐Adr Telekomunik Indonesia‐Sp Adr Huaneng Power Intl‐Spons Adr Vodafone Group Plc‐Sp Adr California Water Service Grp Telefonica Brasil‐Adr America Movil‐Adr Series L Xylem Inc Itt Corp
Ticker Symbol OIBR FTR NZTCY CTL VE TEF CHT T HE PCG VZ CPL TLK HNP VOD CWT VIV AMX XYL ITT
29
EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES as of November 30, 2013 Business Development Corportations & Financials Company Prospect Capital Corp Ticc Capital Corp Apollo Investment Corp Ares Capital Corp Compass Diversified Holdings Triangle Capital Corp Main Street Capital Corp Cheviot Financial Corp Westwood Holdings Group Inc California First Natl Bancor
Ticker Symbol PSEC TICC AINV ARCC CODI TCAP MAIN CHEV WHG CFNB
Industry
Price
Equity Investment Instruments Equity Investment Instruments Equity Investment Instruments Equity Investment Instruments Financial Services Equity Investment Instruments Equity Investment Instruments Banks Financial Services Banks
11.41 10.81 9.02 18.38 19.09 29.76 32.95 10.06 57.28 16.37
Industry
Price
Oil & Gas Producers Oil & Gas Producers Chemicals Oil & Gas Producers Oil & Gas Producers Industrial Transportation Oil & Gas Producers Oil & Gas Producers Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil & Gas Producers General Retailers Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil & Gas Producers Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil & Gas Producers Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil Equipment, Services & Distribution Oil & Gas Producers
76.04 18.91 28.59 30.42 32.70 16.90 26.99 51.69 53.35 24.38 45.89 30.09 51.39 54.16 81.97 41.10 29.72 13.89 53.56 26.64 36.33 69.07 62.97 47.98
YTD % Chg 4.97% 6.82% 7.43% 4.37% 29.23% 16.75% 9.97% 8.17% 40.05% 6.22%
Price/ Earnings 12.08 13.46 10.74 11.07 13.20 12.36 18.54 40.24 26.84 21.75
Current Yield 11.62% 10.73% 8.87% 8.27% 7.54% 7.26% 6.01% 3.58% 3.07% 2.44%
Dividend Frequency Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Annual
Annual Dividend 1.33 1.16 0.80 1.52 1.44 2.16 1.98 0.36 1.76 0.40
YTD % Chg 11.00% 2.60% ‐6.05% ‐13.68% ‐41.80% 1.62% 13.40% 29.91% 25.59% 12.45% 18.09% 7.31% 5.61% 25.53% 2.73% 8.79% 39.28% 13.30% ‐0.80% 83.10% ‐1.22% 35.40% 24.70% 7.36%
Price/ Earnings 8.75 75.80 32.44 18.78 363.33 18.52 29.89 13.39 74.31 658.92 27.39 46.29 29.82 26.55 25.13 13.36 41.13 16.46 23.00 n/a 2.88 126.85 23.07 8.98
Current Yield 11.40% 10.31% 9.58% 9.53% 9.42% 9.23% 8.67% 8.43% 8.21% 7.71% 7.63% 7.22% 6.83% 6.68% 6.59% 6.57% 5.72% 5.47% 5.41% 5.11% 4.95% 4.92% 4.38% 2.50%
Dividend Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Monthly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly
Annual Dividend 8.67 1.95 2.74 2.90 3.08 1.56 2.34 4.36 4.38 1.88 3.50 2.17 3.51 3.62 5.40 2.70 1.70 0.76 2.90 1.36 1.80 3.40 2.76 1.20
Royalty Trusts, Pipelines, & Transportation Company Bp Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Breitburn Energy Partners Lp Calumet Specialty Products Linn Energy Llc‐Units Ev Energy Partners Lp Ship Finance Intl Ltd Legacy Reserves Lp Sabine Royalty Trust Nustar Energy Lp Regency Energy Partners Lp Suburban Propane Partners Lp Enbridge Energy Partners Lp Williams Partners Lp Energy Transfer Partners Lp Kinder Morgan Energy Prtnrs Teekay Lng Partners Lp Cheniere Energy Partners Lp Permian Basin Royalty Trust Oneok Partners Lp Crosstex Energy Lp Golar Lng Ltd Markwest Energy Partners Lp Enterprise Products Partners Hollyfrontier Corp
Ticker Symbol BPT BBEP CLMT LINE EVEP SFL LGCY SBR NS RGP SPH EEP WPZ ETP KMP TGP CQP PBT OKS XTEX GLNG MWE EPD HFC
30
EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES as of November 30, 2013 Medical/Health Care Company Pdl Biopharma Inc Universal Health Rlty Income Omega Healthcare Investors Health Care Reit Inc Healthcare Realty Trust Inc Glaxosmithkline Plc‐Spon Adr Eli Lilly & Co Merck & Co. Inc. Sanofi‐Adr Teva Pharmaceutical‐Sp Adr Astrazeneca Plc‐Spons Adr Pfizer Inc Johnson & Johnson Healthcare Services Group Quest Diagnostics Inc Covidien Plc Steris Corp St Jude Medical Inc Amgen Inc Unitedhealth Group Inc Stryker Corp Aetna Inc Humana Inc Atrion Corporation Doctor Reddy'S Lab‐Adr Dentsply International Inc Cantel Medical Corp Perrigo Co Shire Plc‐Adr Cigna Corp Valeant Pharmaceuticals Inte Assisted Living Concepts I‐A Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd Actavis Plc Mylan Inc Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
Ticker Symbol PDLI UHT OHI HCN HR GSK LLY MRK SNY TEVA AZN PFE JNJ HCSG DGX COV STE STJ AMGN UNH SYK AET HUM ATRI RDY XRAY CMN PRGO SHPG CI VRX ALC SLXP ACT MYL ALXN REGN
Sector
Price
Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Real Estate Investment Trusts Real Estate Investment Trusts Real Estate Investment Trusts Real Estate Investment Trusts Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Services Health Care Equipment & Services Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Services Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Health Care Equipment & Services Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
9.77 42.38 32.69 55.99 22.13 52.92 50.22 49.83 52.83 40.76 57.19 31.73 94.66 28.99 60.94 68.26 46.14 58.42 114.08 74.48 74.42 68.93 103.99 281.48 40.75 47.56 37.32 155.89 135.81 87.45 109.63 12.00 84.81 163.07 44.13 124.50 293.86
YTD % Chg 38.78% ‐16.26% 37.07% ‐8.65% ‐7.83% 21.74% 1.82% 21.71% 11.50% 9.16% 21.28% 26.52% 35.04% 24.80% 4.22% 29.36% 32.85% 61.65% 32.51% 37.32% 35.75% 48.95% 51.52% 43.61% 22.41% 20.07% 87.36% 49.85% 47.33% 64.20% 83.42% n/a 109.55% 89.53% 60.77% 31.14% 71.78%
Price/ Earnings 5.86 37.36 23.63 277.55 210.70 14.25 10.99 14.51 14.79 8.16 11.36 14.73 17.55 36.05 16.28 16.68 20.47 16.21 17.46 14.01 18.03 12.64 11.84 22.11 20.50 17.98 37.93 30.92 18.54 12.67 17.76 n/a 46.36 54.00 25.74 67.05 70.13
Current Yield 6.14% 5.90% 5.87% 5.47% 5.42% 4.66% 3.90% 3.53% 3.39% 3.20% 3.15% 3.03% 2.79% 2.35% 1.97% 1.88% 1.82% 1.71% 1.65% 1.50% 1.42% 1.16% 1.04% 0.91% 0.60% 0.53% 0.24% 0.23% 0.13% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dividend Frequency Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Annual Quarterly Semi‐Annual Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly Annual Quarterly Semi‐Annual Quarterly Semi‐Annual Annual Irregular Quarterly None None Irregular None None
Annual Dividend 0.600 2.500 1.920 3.060 1.200 2.464 1.960 1.760 1.793 1.306 1.800 0.960 2.640 0.680 1.200 1.280 0.840 1.000 1.880 1.120 1.060 0.800 1.080 2.560 0.245 0.250 0.090 0.360 0.180 0.040 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
31
EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES as of November 30, 2013 Global Growth Leaders & Technology Company Invesco Mortgage Capital Cedar Fair Lp Roundy'S Inc Southern Co/The Seagate Technology Mcdonald'S Corp Lyondellbasell Indu‐Cl A Sturm Ruger & Co Inc Procter & Gamble Co/The General Electric Co Caterpillar Inc Coca‐Cola Co/The Kohls Corp Dell Inc Apple Inc Hewlett‐Packard Co Intl Business Machines Corp Oracle Corp Home Depot Inc Qualcomm Inc 3M Co Altera Corp Marvell Technology Group Ltd Emc Corp/Ma Dover Corp Broadcom Corp‐Cl A Joy Global Inc Infosys Ltd‐Sp Adr Whole Foods Market Inc Visa Inc‐Class A Shares Arm Holdings Plc‐Spons Adr Titan International Inc Weight Watchers Intl Inc Cirrus Logic Inc Corelogic Inc Zillow Inc‐Class A Mwi Veterinary Supply Inc Wageworks Inc Broadsoft Inc Cerner Corp Darling International Inc Netflix Inc Fossil Group Inc Tempur Sealy International I
Ticker Symbol IVR FUN RNDY SO STX MCD LYB RGR PG GE CAT KO KSS DELL AAPL HPQ IBM ORCL HD QCOM MMM ALTR MRVL EMC DOV BRCM JOY INFY WFM V ARMH TWI WTW CRUS CLGX Z MWIV WAGE BSFT CERN DAR NFLX FOSL TPX
Sector
Price
Real Estate Investment Trusts Travel & Leisure Food & Drug Retailers Electricity Technology Hardware & Equipment Travel & Leisure Chemicals Aerospace & Defense Household Goods & Home Construction General Industrials Industrial Engineering Beverages General Retailers Technology Hardware & Equipment Technology Hardware & Equipment Technology Hardware & Equipment Software & Computer Services Software & Computer Services General Retailers Technology Hardware & Equipment General Industrials Technology Hardware & Equipment Technology Hardware & Equipment Technology Hardware & Equipment Industrial Engineering Technology Hardware & Equipment Industrial Engineering Software & Computer Services Food & Drug Retailers Financial Services Technology Hardware & Equipment Automobiles & Parts General Retailers Technology Hardware & Equipment Support Services Real Estate Investment & Services Support Services Support Services Software & Computer Services Software & Computer Services Food Producers General Retailers Personal Goods Household Goods & Home Construction
15.10 49.80 8.71 40.63 49.04 97.37 77.18 76.93 84.22 26.66 84.60 40.19 55.28 13.73 556.07 27.35 179.68 23.64 80.67 73.58 133.51 32.25 14.23 23.85 90.74 26.69 56.56 54.02 56.60 203.46 49.90 17.25 32.41 20.18 35.23 78.62 182.17 57.30 26.57 57.47 20.73 365.80 127.27 51.02
YTD % Chg ‐23.39% 48.88% 95.73% ‐5.09% 61.21% 10.38% 35.19% 69.45% 24.05% 27.01% ‐5.25% 10.87% 28.62% 37.98% 4.38% 91.93% ‐6.20% 5.91% 30.43% 18.95% 43.79% ‐7.91% 95.99% ‐5.81% 36.46% ‐19.48% ‐11.32% 27.71% 24.18% 34.23% 31.35% ‐20.58% ‐38.10% ‐30.38% 31.39% 183.32% 65.61% 221.91% ‐27.64% 49.14% 26.47% 295.08% 36.70% 62.02%
Price/ Earnings 7.01 20.13 11.41 15.17 10.91 17.46 13.36 14.45 20.68 16.90 14.34 19.46 13.13 14.71 14.03 9.26 11.41 17.60 21.66 18.47 19.84 22.33 25.54 18.35 17.92 19.52 8.37 20.44 38.25 26.99 49.89 20.27 7.30 8.96 23.17 1941.67 36.29 102.98 21.80 45.33 20.05 207.52 20.37 23.71
Relative Strength 0.13 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EPS Growth % ‐11.46 42.19 n/a 5.06 ‐26.04 1.50 15.44 74.06 24.69 12.10 14.01 ‐29.08 ‐3.23 ‐28.42 ‐10.33 n/a 9.66 15.08 21.69 27.07 5.79 ‐27.20 ‐45.54 9.17 10.34 ‐25.00 20.63 13.16 16.08 140.06 39.54 57.14 2.64 57.04 150.00 259.62 16.75 ‐97.45 ‐63.64 27.47 ‐24.49 ‐92.76 20.82 ‐46.79
50‐Day Moving Avg 15.39 45.28 8.83 41.53 47.22 96.33 75.72 68.61 80.53 25.61 84.41 39.04 54.30 13.70 509.52 23.76 182.12 33.76 76.85 69.11 124.50 34.73 12.43 24.56 90.71 26.67 54.52 52.37 60.14 196.91 47.61 15.25 36.25 22.38 30.76 81.39 161.16 52.85 32.23 55.38 21.66 328.36 123.35 43.28
32
Exchange Traded Funds Sectors 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 YTD Current % MARKET 5 YR MKT 10 YR MKT MARKET Yield PRICE RETURN RETURN RETURN
ETF
SYMBOL
ASSET CLASS
FUND INCEPTION DATE
Ishares Msci Mexico Capped
EWW
Emerging Markets
03/18/96
70.53
0.52
67.22
‐4.01
19.67
16.88
0.52
Powershares Dyn Healthcare Ipath Msci India Index Etn
PTH INP
Health India
10/12/06 12/19/06
32.82 58.85
0.65 0.89
47.54 55.27
45.28 ‐6.84
21.16 14.22
n/a n/a
0.65 0.89
Ishares Msci Hong Kong Etf
EWH
Asia
03/18/96
19.42
0.52
20.75
9.34
18.97
10.71
0.52
Morgan Stanley India Invest
IIF
India
02/25/94
20.79
1.38
16.65
‐10.15
12.54
10.06
1.38
Powershares Gld Drg China
PGJ
Asia
12/09/04
N/A
0.70
29.31
53.93
17.95
n/a
0.70
BlackRock Fund Advisors Morgan Stanley Investment Management Inc/USA Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC
India Fund Inc Energy Select Sector Spdr Aberdeen Chile Fund Inc
IFN XLE CH
India Natural Resources Chile
02/23/94 12/24/98 09/27/89
N/A 71.42 15.06
1.16 0.18 1.53
20.26 86.44 10.85
‐2.80 22.73 ‐22.16
10.20 13.45 16.07
10.98 15.20 11.49
1.16 0.18 1.53
Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd SSgA Funds Management Inc Aberdeen Asset Managers Ltd
Ishares Msci Brazil Capped E Ishares Msci Germany Etf
EWZ EWG
Emerging Markets Communications
07/14/00 03/18/96
55.14 24.43
0.59 0.53
46.95 30.57
‐14.45 25.93
10.15 15.78
15.56 9.92
0.59 0.53
BlackRock Fund Advisors BlackRock Fund Advisors
12/31/12 NAV
12/31/12 NAV
EXP. RATIO
MANAGER NAME
BlackRock Fund Advisors Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC Barclays Capital Inc
Indexes 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 YTD Current % MARKET 5 YR MKT 10 YR MKT MARKET Yield PRICE RETURN RETURN RETURN
ETF
SYMBOL
ASSET CLASS
FUND INCEPTION DATE
Ishares Russell 2000 Value E
IWN
Small Cap
07/28/00
75.48
0.25
98.15
31.67
18.29
8.59
0.25
BlackRock Fund Advisors
Ishares S&P Small‐Cap 600 Va
IJS
Small Cap
07/28/00
80.91
0.25
110.28
37.56
21.04
14.61
0.25
Powershares Ftse Rafi Us 1K
PRF
Large Cap
12/19/05
62.43
0.39
81.37
31.92
21.41
n/a
0.39
BlackRock Fund Advisors Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC
Ishares Core S&P Small‐Cap E Ishares Russell 2000 Etf Vanguard Mid‐Cap Etf Ishares S&P Mid‐Cap 400 Valu
IJR IWM VO
Small Cap Small Cap Mid Cap
05/26/00 05/26/00 01/30/04
78.13 84.23 63.35
0.17 0.20 0.10
108.00 113.51 108.09
39.41 35.95 31.14
22.28 20.96 22.53
10.53 9.00 n/a
0.17 0.20 0.10
BlackRock Fund Advisors BlackRock Fund Advisors Vanguard Group Inc/The
IJJ
Mid Cap
07/28/00
88.14
0.25
113.66
30.46
20.92
9.83
0.25
Powershares Dyn L/C Value Ishares Core S&P 500 Etf Powershares Inter Dvd Achiev Ishares Msci Emerging Market Ishares Msci Eafe Etf Wisdomtree Intl M/C Dvd Fund Ishares Msci Emu Etf
PWV IVV
Large Cap Large Cap
03/03/05 05/19/00
N/A 143.14
0.59 0.07
28.01 181.96
30.07 29.00
17.89 17.52
n/a 7.60
0.59 0.07
PID
International
09/15/05
15.83
0.56
18.00
15.91
15.45
n/a
0.56
BlackRock Fund Advisors Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC BlackRock Fund Advisors Invesco PowerShares Capital Management LLC
EEM EFA
Emerging Markets International
04/11/03 08/17/01
44.35 56.86
0.66 0.34
42.35 66.24
‐3.28 18.83
15.21 13.10
11.46 7.31
0.66 0.34
BlackRock Fund Advisors BlackRock Fund Advisors
DIM EZU
International International
06/16/06 07/31/00
50.29 33.46
0.58 0.50
57.98 40.36
19.30 23.55
15.67 11.53
n/a 6.65
0.58 0.50
WisdomTree Asset Management Inc BlackRock Fund Advisors
EXP. RATIO
MANAGER NAME
33
CASH FLOW ALLOCATION STRATEGIES
ALLOCATION %
SAMPLE PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES
GUIDED TRADING PORTFOLIO GROWTH WITH INCOME (AGGRESSIVE)
CASH GLOBAL DIVIDEND STOCKS GLOBAL/DOMESTIC REAL ESTATE FUNDS MLP'S, ROYALTY TRUSTS, PIPELINES SENIOR LOAN/PREFERRED/TAXABLE BOND FUNDS
TOTAL *************************************************
10.00% 30.00% 30.00% 10.00% 20.00%
100.00%
CASH FLOW (MODERATE)
CASH AND CD's GLOBAL DIVIDEND STOCKS GLOBAL/DOMESTIC REAL ESTATE FUNDS INSURED MUNICIPAL BONDS SENIOR LOAN/PREFERRED/TAXABLE BOND FUNDS
10.00% 15.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
TOTAL *************************************************
100.0%
CONSERVATIVE CASH CD'S, MTN'S, MTP'S CORPORATE BOND FUNDS GLOBAL BOND FUNDS INSURED MUNICIPAL BONDS
TOTAL
25.00% 25.00% 0.00% 0.00% 50.00%
100.00%
*************************************************
ULTRA CONSERVATIVE CASH INSURED MUNICIPAL BONDS TOTAL
50.00% 50.00% 100.00%
McGowanGroup Asset Management, Inc. 11/30/2013 UPDATE
34
Closed End Fund Disclosures This is not a complete list of available closed-end funds. Depending on your needs, objectives, goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance there may be other investment products that are more suitable for your particular situation. The listed funds may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial circumstances. Additional information is available upon request. Prices and yields are as of the date indicated only and are subject to availability and market fluctuation/change. Closed -end funds, unlike open-end funds, are not continuously offered. After the initial public offering, shares are sold on the open market through a stock exchange. Holding municipal bonds within a closed-end fund could result in taxable capital gains. An insured fund guarantees only the timely payment of interest and principal on the bonds in the fund's portfolio. Insurance or escrow does not guarantee the market value of the municpal's securities or the value of the fund's shares Global/International investing involves risks not typically associated with US investing, including currency fluctuations, political instability, uncertain economic conditions and different accounting standards. Investments in high yield, non-investment grade securities are generally only suitable for aggressive investors willing to take greater risks, which could result in loss of principal and interest payments. Investing in Closed-End Funds may also involve the following risks: Market Risk - General stock market fluctuations and volatile increases and decreases in value as market confidence in and perceptions of the issuers change. Investor perceptions can be based on various and unpredictable factors including expectations regarding government economic, monetary and fiscal policies, inflation and interest rates, economic expansion or contraction and political climates. The value of any security can rise or fall and when liquidated , may be worth more or less than the original investment. Price Risk - Refers to the fact that shares of closed-end funds frequently trade at a discount from their net asset value. Interest rate risk - The risk that arise in interest rates will cause the value of an investment to decline. Credit Risk - Refers to a bond issuer's ability to meet its obligation to make interest and principal payments, or a decline in the market's assessment of the issuer's ability to pay. Generally, lower rated securities provide higher current income but are considered to carry greater credit risk than higher rated securities. Leverage Risk - The risk of higher share price volatility and that the cost to a fund of its leveraged capital, such as preferred stock or debt, will exceed the earnings on the related assets. These securities are not suitable for all investors and should not be purchased on the basis of yield alone. The market price of these securities may decline. Dividend yields are not guaranteed and may be reduced, which may negatively impact the price of the security. Price changes may be amplified by portfolio leverage. The performance provided is past performance , which does not guarantee future results and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data quoted. The investment return and principal value will fluctuate when sold and may be worth more or less than the original cost. Visit www.cefconnect.com and www.morningstar.com for more current monthly performance information. This and/or the accompanying information was prepared by or obtained from sources that McGowan Group Asset Management, Inc. believes to be reliable, but McGowan Group Asset Management, Inc. does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The material has been prepared and is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. McGowan Group Asset Management, Inc. is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through Spire Securities, LLC an independent broker-dealer, member FINRA/SIPC.
35
200 Crescent Court #657 Dallas, TX 75201 Phone: (214) 720-4400 Fax: (214) 720-4420 info@themcgowangroup.com
Thank you for listening to NetWorth Radio with Spencer McGowan on 570 KLIF! If you need anything in addition to the materials or have any questions, please give us a call at (214) 720-4400. Also if you missed any of the show or would like to listen to past shows, we now have podcasts available on our site at www.themcgowangroup.com If you would like to come meet the team and upgrade your investment plan, please call us, 214-720-4400. The consolidation process is surprisingly easy and we will walk you through every step. Schedule your 2014 planning meeting today! Our minimum consolidation is $500,000 per family. Please remember that if you are out of range of the station, you can listen live via the KLIF website at www.klif.com. Just click the green listen live icon and you should be connected. McGowanGroup Asset Management, Inc is a Federally Registered Investment Advisory Firm. Securities offered through independent firm, Spire Securities, LLC., a Registered Broker/Dealer and member FINRA / SIPC McGowanGroup and Spire only transact business in states where it is properly registered or notice filed, or excluded or exempted from registration requirements. Follow-up and individualized responses that involve either the effecting or attempting to effect transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, as the case may be, will not be made absent compliance with state investment adviser and investment adviser representative registration requirements, or an applicable exemption or exclusion. All the materials presented in this guide are meant to be informational and used for educational purposes. Each situation is different and requires customization based on individual goals and risk tolerance. We recommend meeting with a financial professional before any action is taken. All articles used with permission. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. No part of the information in this guide can be redistributed, copied, or reproduced without prior written consent of McGowan Group Asset Managemen and JPMorgan Asset Management.
36