McMillin Realty's market update CHULA VISTA
Current prices for homes on the market Trends in pricing Current levels of supply and demand Value metrics
Report for the week of Sunday February 27, 2011
Presented by Your Real Estate Expert 866-694-6491 McMillin Realty www.mcmillinrealty.com - clientcare@mcmillinrealty.com
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City Overview
CHULA VISTA Trend
Real-Time Market Profile
THIS WEEK
The median single family home price
Median List Price $ 345,000 Average List Price $ 384,125 Least Expensive Listing $ 109,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 3,499,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 174 Average Days on Market 134 Total Inventory 835 Absorbed This Week* 54 Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 34 % Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 11 % Percent Flip (price increased) 10 % Median House Size (sq ft) 2,000 Median Lot Size 6,501 - 8,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0 Median Age 10 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 18
in CHULA VISTA this week is $345,000. The 835 homes have been on the market for an average of 134 days.
Days-on-market has been trending up recently but the Market Action Index and inventory levels are basically flat and not providing strong indications for the market.
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor the seller. See the section below for full details.
QUARTILES
Trend Key Last Month's Trend
Last Quarter's Trend
No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties sold.
To get a tightly targeted understanding of homes in the market, we break each locale into quartiles. Each quartile is 25% of the homes listed.
Characteristics per Quartile Med. Sqft. Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
3,149
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
5.0
4.0
7
208
14
19 143 Most expensive 25% of homes
$ 387,900
2,244
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
9
209
16
14 136 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 320,000
1,740
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
10
209
14
4 123 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 250,000
1,392
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.0
46
209
12
17 135 Least expensive 25% of homes
Quart
Median Price
1
$ 499,900
2
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend graphs below.
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PRICE Despite this week's down tic, the market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability of this shift.
QUARTILE PRICES Often, we find insights by watching pricing trends within the quartile segments. Prices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
INVENTORY Inventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks.
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Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be MARKET ACTION INDEX characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index The CHULA VISTA market is currently falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction. quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 18. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.
The market has shown some evidence of slowing recently. Both prices and inventory levels are relatively The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market") because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.
unchanged in recent weeks. Watch the Market Action Index for changes as it can be a leading indicator for price changes.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall market shifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole group changes. The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price range?"
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DAYS ON MARKET (DOM) The properties have been on the market for an average of 134 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 91 or so days.
DOM PER QUARTILE It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91915 Trend
Median List Price $ 350,000 Average List Price $ 377,300 Least Expensive Listing $ 220,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 700,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 169 Average Days on Market 140 Total Inventory 183 Absorbed This Week 6 Median House Size (sq ft) 2,134 Median Lot Size 4,501 - 6500 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0 Median Age 7 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 15
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91915 this week is $350,000.
Days-on-market has been trending up recently but the Market Action Index and inventory levels are basically flat and not providing strong indications for the market.
PRICE We continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels.
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 469,000
3,200
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
5.0
4.0
7
45
5
3
147 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 392,500
2,392
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
7
46
4
1
144 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 329,995
1,844
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
7
46
5
0
126 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 290,000
1,636
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
3.0
3.0
7
46
1
2
143 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately with 183 properties available this week. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91915 is quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 15. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 139 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 119 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91914 Trend
Median List Price $ 467,000 Average List Price $ 527,311 Least Expensive Listing $ 211,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 2,499,900 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 170 Average Days on Market 133 Total Inventory 96 Absorbed This Week 10 Median House Size (sq ft) 2,938 Median Lot Size 8,001 - 10,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.8 Median Number of Bathrooms 3.2 Median Age 6 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 19
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91914 this week is $467,000.
Inventory has been lightening lately and the Market Action Index has been trending up. These are mildly positive indications for the market.
PRICE We continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move from these levels.
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 676,995
4,282
0.25 - 0.50 acre
5.0
5.0
5
24
1
3
148 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 524,950
3,197
0.25 - 0.50 acre
4.5
3.5
6
24
1
1
110 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 444,950
2,648
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
4.5
3.0
7
24
1
5
120 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 375,000
2,139
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
8
24
1
1
153 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE The market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both been reasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves from these levels.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been falling in recent weeks with 96 properties available this week. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is falling with the available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91914 is quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 19. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 132 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 112 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91913 Trend
Median List Price $ 357,400 Average List Price $ 374,271 Least Expensive Listing $ 185,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 575,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 169 Average Days on Market 138 Total Inventory 214 Absorbed This Week 12 Median House Size (sq ft) 2,123 Median Lot Size 4,501 - 6500 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0 Median Age 8 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 17
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91913 this week is $357,400.
The Market Action Index has been basically flat recently, and days-onmarket decreasing, there aren't strong signals for the direction of the market.
PRICE Again this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus their absolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator for a trough in prices.
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 475,000
3,101
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
5.0
4.0
8
53
4
6
121 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 389,900
2,447
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
8
53
1
4
152 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 339,950
1,873
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
4.0
3.0
9
54
3
1
117 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 289,000
1,615
Less than 4,500 sq ft
3.0
3.0
8
54
1
1
162 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE Despite recently falling prices, the price per square foot has stayed reasonably flat. This implies that there's a portion of the market being priced at a premium. You can investigate this condition in the quartile details.
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INVENTORY Inventory has been steady around these levels in recent weeks with 214 properties currently available.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91913 is quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 17. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 137 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 84 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91911 Trend
Median List Price $ 274,450 Average List Price $ 282,689 Least Expensive Listing $ 109,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 775,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 177 Average Days on Market 111 Total Inventory 170 Absorbed This Week 16 Median House Size (sq ft) 1,462 Median Lot Size 6,501 - 8,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 3.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 2.0 Median Age 45 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 18
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91911 this week is $274,450.
With inventory, days-on-market, and the Market Action Index all recently plateaued, the market isn't sending strong directional signal for the nearterm outlook.
PRICE The market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch the Market Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 377,500
2,182
8,001 - 10,000 sq ft
4.0
3.0
22
42
7
2
113 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 292,150
1,635
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.5
2.0
43
42
2
4
94 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 250,000
1,352
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.0
51
43
5
5
115 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 200,000
1,110
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.0
50
43
2
5
122 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE This is a market where watching the value metrics (like price per square foot) can provide insight that you don't get at first glance. Despite the fact that home prices are rising fairly consistently, the price per square foot of homes listed is declining. Often this can be attributed to new and remodeled homes on the market. Buyers in the area are paying more but also getting more for their money.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
INVENTORY Inventory has been falling in recent weeks with 170 properties available this week. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is falling with the available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91911 is quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 18. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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McMillin Realty | www.mcmillinrealty.com | 866-694-6491
DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 111 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 77 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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CHULA VISTA
Neighborhood Detail Real-Time Market Profile
91910 Trend
Median List Price $ 340,000 Average List Price $ 423,988 Least Expensive Listing $ 175,000 Most Expensive Listing $ 3,499,000 Asking Price per Square Foot $ 195 Average Days on Market 148 Total Inventory 172 Absorbed This Week 10 Median House Size (sq ft) 1,771 Median Lot Size 6,501 - 8,000 sq ft Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0 Median Number of Bathrooms 3.0 Median Age 38 Altos Research Value Statistics Market Action Index Cold! Buyer's Market 18
THIS WEEK The median single family home price in CHULA VISTA 91910 this week is $340,000.
The Market Action index has been trending down lately, while days-onmarket is climbing, providing mostly bearish signs for the market.
PRICE Despite this week's down tic, price trends in this zip code have generally been moving up lately. We are below the market's high point, and we'll investigate the Market Action Index later on to see if we expect this week's blip to become a downward trend.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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PRICE PER QUARTILE In the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES Quart
Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size
Bed
Bath
Med. Age
Inven.
AbNew sorbed
Avg. DoM
1
$ 570,000
2,920
0.25 - 0.50 acre
4.0
3.0
18
43
0
4
187 Most expensive 25% of homes
2
$ 369,000
2,017
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
4.0
3.0
19
43
5
3
129 Upper-middle 25% of homes
3
$ 310,000
1,650
6,501 - 8,000 sq ft
3.0
2.0
51
43
4
0
126 Lower-middle 25% of homes
4
$ 240,000
1,245
4,501 - 6500 sq ft
3.0
2.0
59
43
3
3
150 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE In a market where prices are rising fairly consistently, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that new homes coming on the market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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INVENTORY Inventory has been climbing lately with 172 properties available this week. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the Market Action Index to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.
MARKET ACTION INDEX The CHULA VISTA 91910 is quite strongly in the Buyer's Market zone. The 90-day Market Action Index stands at 18. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels of demand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.
McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA
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DAYS ON MARKET The properties have been on the market for an average of 147 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in the past 87 or so days. Watch the 90day DOM trend for signals of a changing market.
DAYS ON MARKET It is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area (Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.
About Altos Research Corporation Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a licensed real estate agent or broker.
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