We need to store more rainwater

Stephen Hawking famously said, “Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” It stands to reason that we can adapt more intelligently to climate change if we know what lies ahead.

Will we have more wet years, like we are experiencing now? Or will our future be far more arid?

In early January, local blogger David Greenwald wrote that California’s “long range” precipitation is not looking great.

Mr. Greenwald quoted a San Jose Mercury News story: “Regardless of what happens this season, the long-term prospects are dire. As more carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere by fossil fuel use, drought conditions are expected to worsen in the coming decades.”

About 15 years ago, I interviewed Bryan Weare, an emeritus professor of atmospheric sciences at UC Davis, and he told me a big issue for Northern California in the decades to come would be water storage.

Due to warmer winters, Weare expected more rain, but less snow in the high Sierras. Snow has been a major source of our water storage. It slowly melts, giving us water for months after our last storms.

I wondered if more recent climate science models had changed: that, as Greenwald reported, it won’t just be that we will have less snow, but less precipitation?

I then read the Mercury News article and realized Greenwald’s mistake. It doesn’t suggest that Northern California will be drier in the decades to come. That Mercury quote regards “southwestern North America.” The science behind the idea that “drought conditions are