PROPERTY PREDICTIONS

from The Bristol Magazine January 2023

GARDENING

Bristol agents predict what’s to come for the city’s property market in 2023...

What is happening to house prices in Bristol at the moment?

Following the Government’s “mini-budget” in September, Bristol, like the wider UK market, suffered a sharp and almost immediate shock as the macro-economic implications of the “budget” became apparent. Bank lending criteria became stricter and mortgage rates rose just as inflation increased the day-to-day cost of living. Many buyers, funding their purchase with a mortgage, found themselves unable to afford the type of house they were hoping to buy and many cash buyers found the value of their cash had fallen (as the stock market fell dramatically) and they too were forced to revaluate. This led to an increased number of sales falling through and many registered buyers amending their search criteria to take into account this revised affordability. Fortunately, since then, the market has stabilised and sales that “fell-through” have been re-agreed, most now have Completed and new stock coming to the market reflects the changes, with buyers motivated and more financially prepared.

• Rupert Oliver, Director of Rupert Oliver Property Agents; rupertoliver.co.uk

Why are people relocating to Bristol?

Bristol regularly resides at the top of any “great place to live” survey. Sure the area has buoyant employment across all job sectors, world-class transport links with an airport serving 111 destinations and some beautiful housing to suit all budgets but, it’s the thriving cultural sector, burgeoning foodie reputation, rich history and excellent schooling that draws most people to the city.

Bristol’s unique independent retail sector is unrivalled anywhere with a healthy contempt for large corporate chains but, if there is not enough to keep you occupied within the city limits, then wonderful Bristol sits nestled in the most beautiful countryside and only a short drive from the beaches of Devon or West Wales, what’s not to love?

The pandemic taught us that a healthy work-life balance is so important, Bristol was a magnet for those looking to get out of the rat race and slow down a little. We enjoy the unique combination of having big city facilities but with the local high street neighbourhoods that many craved. Operating out of 10 High Street locations across the city, Ocean’s experienced staff monitor even very small fluctuations in the market. We currently have nearly 800 registered applicants who are looking to move out of London and set up home in a BS postcode. Some homeowners chose to move out of the city during the pandemic in search of tranquility and are hoping to move back into the bright lights and hubbub. There are no hard and fast trends to spot currently but there certainly is a noticeable ebb and flow of buyers moving in and out of Bristol and that is what keeps our vibrant, diverse city alive.

How did Bristol fare in 2022?

Broadly, we are seeing the market normalise after a high period of activity driven by the pandemic and stamp duty. However, it’s not reset just yet. Transactional activity continues – exchanges at Knight Frank Bristol were up 32% in November versus the five-year average –and sellers are responding to a strong market with instructions up 16% in the same period.

Drivers this year have been buyers trying to secure their ideal property before their lower rate mortgage deals lapse and sellers looking to make the most of a market that has seen average prices climb by more than 20% in the mainstream market since the start of the pandemic and has peaked. The change of prime minister and Autumn Statement have calmed the market (and buyers) after the volatility caused by September’s mini-Budget, but buyers are becoming more cautious.

Supply in Bristol is at its highest level this year, although it remains down 3% in the 12 months to November compared with last year, giving buyers, of which there remain many active, improved choice.

We expect prime regional prices to come under pressure next year with a 5% contraction as the economy enters recession, the job market weakens and the cost of borrowing weighs on transactions volumes. However, areas with more cash buyers and lower reliance on mortgages will perform better. The South East and London tend to be the areas with fewest cash buyers. Again, the South West isn’t as exposed to increases in mortgage rates as some parts of the UK.

Having hit a low point at the start of the pandemic when the ‘escape to the country’ trend was in full force, city markets like Bristol are very much back in favour as workers return to the office (even if it’s a hybrid arrangement rather than full-time), something that will support demand and prices in the mid-term.

• James Toogood, Office Head at Knight Frank; knightfrank.co.uk

What are your predictions for the premium market in

Bristol in 2023?

Following a remarkable period in the property market, as economic conditions have become increasingly challenging, buyers are now, understandably, more cautious. However, despite this tougher climate, the prime property market here in Bristol remains largely unchanged. We have continued to see a strong appetite to buy, partly due to there being less reliance on borrowing at the upper end of the market.

We anticipate the number of prime property transactions to be lower in 2023 than it has been, however, given the continued gap in supply and demand, we still expect to see competition in the market. This is likely to be the case particularly in the most popular parts of the city, such as north west Bristol, which is a big draw for relocating families thanks to its choice of highly regarded schools and institutions, alongside several major employers.

It is well-known that the south west of England experienced a surge in interest since the start of the pandemic as lifestyle became a key driver of the property market. Despite the changing climate, buyers are continuing to prioritise factors such as being close to parks and open spaces, which Bristol is of course notable for enjoying in abundance.

In terms of values in the prime property market, over the next 12 months or so we are likely to see downward pressure, in the region of -5 per cent on average across the south of the country, according to Savills research. This follows unprecedented price growth of +16.4 per cent on average across the wider south between March 2020 and September 2022. Looking ahead, we anticipate a return to growth as early as 2024, with prices over the five-year period to 2027 to see net increases of up to +11.6 per cent.

• Richard Brooks, Head of South West Residential at Savills Bristol Estate Agents; savills.co.uk

Have you seen a rise in demand for later living communities in Bristol?

Choosing to sell the home where you raised your children is probably one of the most difficult decisions anyone can make. The pandemic hastened that choice for some, where isolation was more evident and security important. While many Later Living communities bypass estate agents and are sold directly by the providers, we have certainly helped many clients sell their homes and move into specifically designed communities or join forces with family members and buy larger homes where they can all be together.

Our team understands that the balance between the push and pull factors can be very fine and the timeline extended. We are often called in very early in the process and moving day can be many months if not years from first contact. It is vital, for anyone considering such a move, to keep in regular contact with an agent who will be able to advise on current market conditions and saleability. Later Living opportunities often require a quick jump after a period of inactivity due to demand, a leading estate agent will always be ready to make the move as stress-free as possible.

• Chris Moody, Associate Director at Ocean Home; oceanhome.co.uk

Where are the best places for families to live in Bristol in terms of school catchment areas?

One would ideally direct anyone looking for a school catchment area to visit the Bristol.gov.uk site in order to check out Ofsted Reports which will highlight whether a School is outstanding, good, requires improvement or inadequate, especially when going down the State or Academy status. Bristol has many good Primary Schools and many of the State Secondary Schools are now Academies. However, Bristol also has an abundance of Independent Schools which allows anyone sending their child to a fee-paying school to buy in any area.

Families looking at specific catchment areas will also need to build into their criteria affordability of housing within that area as house prices in the past few years have definitely had an impact and, at times, purchasers will offer well above the selling price to secure an address. These areas are more than often Cotham and Redland, especially the Redland Green catchment. Good nurseries are also very sought-after these days with so many mothers returning to part or full-time work, although most are fee-paying until you can claim from the Government so many hours after your child’s third birthday until they reach compulsory school age. So summing up, it really does depend on the individual’s affordability and the route they want to take regarding which catchment area they decide to choose.

With regards to the market going forward, unfortunately, none of us have a crystal ball and it will be hard to predict until we hit the first quarter of next year. Christmas is always a time when families discuss the year ahead, jobs may also change and everyone will be wanting to look at their energy costs and whether the Government step in with any further funding before making any big decisions. The housing market always takes time to re-adjust to any economic climate but we remain optimistic and positive that we will come through the current ‘lull’ and the market will recover over the Spring.

What are your UK house price predictions?

When we woke on 1 Januaury 2022 few people could have predicted the war in Ukraine, the rapid increase in inflation and September’s spike in mortgage rates. So, a tough ask as we enter a new year. If all things are equal (in 2023) then my prediction is an average 5% to 6% drop in house prices –with some areas suffering less (circa 3%) and some more (upto 8 to 10%).

The family house market will remain the more stable as their needs are often more driven and equity in their exisiting homes is often greater; while first time buyers and investors will be the main two demographic groups to be hit hardest by the increased costs.

Overall, if the affordability is there for a purchaser to upsize then a falling market is a good time to buy a bigger, more expensive house –if the desire is there to hold it for more than several years. Bristol has consisitently seen less aggressive falls than other areas of the UK during a downturn and often a quicker return to house price growth as the market recovers. n

• Rupert Oliver, Director of Rupert Oliver Property Agents; rupertoliver.co.uk

Light the way

This month, Rupert Oliver of Rupert Oliver Property Agents walks us through the ways to brighten up our homes over the winter months...

January, February, March; the days are short, and natural light is at an all time low. During these darker months of the year, a well-lit home can be a real game changer –boosting mood and productivity. Before you start laying the lighting plans, however, it may be helpful to understand the three categories into which interior lights are broken down: ambient, task, and accent. Ambient is the base layer – the blank canvas; it’s the light you get when you flick that main switch. Task lighting (table lamps, under cabinet spots, and so on) is the more practical kind, enabling you to carry out activities at your desk or food prep area; and accent lighting serves to spotlight prized photographs, works of art, or favourite pieces of furniture.

Start with a strong foundation

To get things off to a good start, interior designers suggest making a decision about which kind of overhead (i.e. ambient) lighting you like the best. From flush mount, to hanging, to recessed downlights, making the right decision early on will help to create a good base to build on later.

Flush mount fixtures, which lie flat against the ceiling, are great for illuminating smaller spaces – think closets and hallways – as they take up minimal space and attention.

If you’re looking at a room with a high ceiling, however, you may opt for a hanging option – such as a chandelier or a modest pendent. It’s a more decorative route that will help fill out lots of overhead space, while casting a soft light into a room.

Recessed downlights, which are mounted into the ceiling in small groups, are an option if you like your lighting to blend into the background. They don’t tend to illuminate a space fully – but that’s where the next step comes in.

Layer that light

Introducing some variety is a great way to bring a more atmospheric feel into the room. Once you’ve sorted your base layer, it’s time to think about the bells and whistles, or the task and accent lighting. Table lamps (task) can be used to create a warm pocket of light in which to sit and read –or to illuminate a dark corner –while wall fixtures (accent) throw a nice spotlight on a standout feature. Adding a pop of light here and a soft gleam there can completely transform a space.

Know your bulbs

Warm coloured LEDs do wonders for creating an inviting room; opt for a warm white bulb (2,700 to 3,000 kelvin) to create a homely living or bedroom area. The higher up the lighting range you go, the bluer the light cast will be – and the cooler the environment created. Cool isn’t always bad, mind; it can do well in more ‘practical’ spaces, such as garages and utility rooms. But if cosy is top of your wish list –as it might well be at this time of year – avoid those higher ranges.

If you are living and working in the same space, using light to change the mood may also make it easier to switch off or create focus when you need to.

Ultimately, get creative with your winter sanctuary this month and before long we’ll be welcoming back the balmy, brighter days with open arms.

Keep up-to-date with our latest news, deals, testimonials and market comment at our website: www.burstoncook.co.uk

(0117) 934 9977

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How to prepare for selling your luxury home in 2023

There is an annual tradition when it comes to house hunting – every Boxing Day, the property portal Rightmove receives its highest volume of traffic, more than any other day of the year. Rightmove claimed last January that 2021’s Christmas period was the busiest ever, with ‘buyer demand’ up by 23% compared to the same time the previous year. This year, as we know, things are a little different. The economy is in a different place and the cost of living crisis is impacting buying and selling decisions. When it comes to the premium market, things often move in a different way, so if you are looking to sell your luxury home next year, here is how to prepare.

The forecast

The latest Rightmove House Price Index highlights that ‘2022 will end with new seller asking prices 5.6% higher than a year ago’. Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s Director of Property Science, states: “It’s understandable that some buyers are distracted, not only by the festive season, but also by the thought that they may get a better fixed-rate mortgage deal and a more stable outlook by waiting until the new year. Our data suggests that there are many ready-to-go movers out there waiting for what they feel to be the right time to enter the market in 2023. We’d usually see a jump in home-mover activity in January, but it takes a while at the start of the year for any significant price changes to feed through, so we’ll be waiting for a potential bounce back in prices in February, which will be a very important leading indicator for the spring moving season.”

According to research by Savills “Macroeconomic pressures will have a varying impact across prime regional markets,” said Frances McDonald, Savills research analyst. They conclude that the prime markets in the wider south will be more resilient, mainly due to the number of cash buyers.

When it comes to the prime country market, it has always danced to its own tune as sellers are often more considered. By this, we mean that they tend to not have moving timescales and would rather wait for the right offer from the right buyer. We often see this with homes that have historical importance, as the seller feels a responsibility to find the right next ‘custodian’ of their home.

How to sell

When it comes to the prime market in Bristol, the majority of our sellers prefer to find a buyer privately; by this, we mean that they do not wish their home to be marketed by traditional methods. As a property broker, we can discreetly introduce a home to a carefully hand-picked selection of rigorously qualified potential buyers.

Should you wish to sell via this method, we do not rush your home to buyers; we take time to truly understand your home, its needs and your standing and wishes. Working with buyer agents across the UK, we know that the buyers we introduce completely understand and respect sellers’ privacy and also their responsibility as the potential future custodian of an exceptional unique home.

There are many dormant buyers in the luxury property market, by which we mean they are not actively looking for a home, but should the right one magically appear they will consider moving. This is where an online presence can be valuable in reaching those buyers and grabbing their attention. We never rush into a viewing, waiting until we are sure that any potential buyer is right for your home.

Before you decide if you wish to sell, it is worth considering all the selling options open to you. We are happy to discuss what each method entails and find the right mix to create a bespoke plan that you feel comfortable with and through which we are confident we can deliver.

Emotions

We are currently working with a high proportion of sellers who are seeking to downsize or move closer to family members. Emotions play a huge role in these sales, as often for the seller it is a decision being made based on a need rather than a want. Emotional sales require a delicate balance of honesty and support – at the end of the day, we want what is best for you and your property. These moves are not always about the sale but about the home and what it can offer for the future, and it is here where we can provide an extra layer of advice and support, often finding you that perfect future home.

When your move is the result of an emotional decision, things need to move at a speed you are comfortable with, so it is essential to be honest with us as your broker and raise any concerns in advance.

Preparation

We know it may take some time to find the right buyer for your property, but you need to play your part to ensure that your home draws them in. You want to present each room to look homely and elegant, which is why you may wish to consider employing the services of a home-staging expert. A survey of property professionals by the Home Staging Association UK & Ireland found that 100% of estate agents who were surveyed agreed “home staging makes it easier for a buyer to visualise the property as their future home” and 94% said that the number of viewings a property received increases when the home has been staged.

Many sellers decide to personally take on the home staging, as it helps them to have a sort out before the move and also undertake a little advance packing.

Moving in 2023

Even though the prime housing market is more stable, it does require that you make the right decisions to ensure you achieve the sale you are hoping for. If you would like to understand how we, as a property broker, holistically take care of your move, contact our team today.