2.0 Update on Survey Work and Studies Informing the Evidence Base for Housing

2.0 Update on Survey Work and Studies Informing the Evidence Base for Housing

2.1 This section provides an update to section 4.0 of Technical Supplement 3: Housing and highlights updates to the studies listed by either Council or the Northern Ireland Housing Executive (NIHE).

Mid and East Antrim Housing Land Availability Report (Housing Monitor)

2.2 A further two Housing Monitors have been carried out since the publication of the draft Plan Strategy and cover the following time periods:  Housing Land Availability Report 2019 - based on applications approved during the period 1 April 2018 to 31 March 2019 with the survey period covering 1 April 2018 to the 31 October 2019.  Housing Land Availability Report 2020 - based on applications approved during the period 1 April 2019 to 31 March 2020 with the survey period covering 1 November 2019 to the 30 September 2020.

Table 1 Housing Monitor Summary 2020

Within the Urban Fabric**

Greenfield

Undeveloped Live Permissions Housing Zonings* Total

Available Potential Available Potential Available Potential (Ha) (Units) (Ha) (Units) (Ha) (Units)

135.50 3,218 52.19 1,342 187.69 4,560

78.14 1,629 64.60 1,619 142.74 3,248

Settlements Total 213.64 4,847 116.79 2,961 330.43 7,808

% units within the urban fabric** - 66% - 45% - 58%

*Housing zonings as per Ballymena Area Plan, Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan 2015 and Larne Area Plan **Refers to the urban fabric of settlements over 5,000 population (Ballymena, Carrickfergus, Larne & Greenisland)

Housing in the Open Countryside – Update 2020

2.3 Taking account of building control completion certificates for dwellings outside settlement limits, Table 4.2 from Technical Supplement 3 has been updated to include new and replacement dwelling completions in the open countryside from April 2018 to March 2020 (Table 2 below).

Table 2 New and replacement dwelling completions in open countryside 1 April 2012 – 31 March 2020

Year

1 April 2012 - 31 March 2013 1 April 2013 - 31 March 2014 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2015 1 April 2015 - 31 March 2016 1 April 2016 - 31 March 2017 1 April 2017 - 31 March 2018 1 April 2018 - 31 March 2019 1 April 2019 - 31 March 2020

Total New dwellings completed (excluding replacements)

108 87 90 95* 76 83 82 65

686 Replacements completed

20 8 12 10 5 5 21 19

100 Total

128 95 102 105 81 88 103 84

786

Source: Building Control completion records *3 dwellings completed in Mill Bay added into the countryside completion count as it is a settlement proposed to be de-designated. Note: The completions for the rural and urban years have been taken as per HM year so each year is 1 April to 31 March. The urban figures for earlier HM years which do not follow this pattern have been pro-rated.

Urban Capacity Sites in Main and Small Towns – Update 2020

2.4 The Urban Capacity Study (Appendix I of Technical Supplement 3: Housing) was based on the 2016-2017 housing monitor and estimated that urban capacity sites over 0.2 hectares, could provide approximately 4,087 units across the Borough’s main and small towns (see Table 3 below). Prior to the publication of the draft Plan Strategy more up to date figures from the 2017-2018 housing monitor revealed that approximately 587 of the 4,087 unit potential had since became live residential planning permissions and this this was reflected in Figures A4 and A5 on pages 323 and 324 of the draft Plan Strategy. Further to the publication of the most recent Housing Monitor (2020) the development status of potential urban capacity sites in the main and small towns has been updated. The results shown in Table 3 below indicate that approximately 1,250 of the original identified unit potential from urban capacity sites are now either built out, subject to ongoing development or committed (for housing or any other use). It is noted that no further work on site suitability or availability has been carried out, this will be carried out as part of the Local Policies Plan process.

Table 3 Summary of Urban Capacity Results – from 2018 Urban Capacity Study and Update 2020

2018

Urban Capacity AreaSettlement

(Ha)

Main Towns

Ballymena Carrickfergus Larne

Small Towns

Greenisland Whitehead Ahoghill Broughshane Cullybackey

Total

58.86 53.89 33.88

2.7 1.76 0 1.35 10.84

163 Urban Capacity Estimated Yield (Units)

1,470 1,349 850

69 45 0 32 272

4,087 2020

Urban Capacity Area (Ha) Urban Capacity Estimated Yield (Units)

41.44 37.86 23.07 1,039 948 580

0.89 0.85 0 0.5 8.63

113.24

23 22 0 13 216

2,841

Urban Fringe Study (2019) – Update 2020

2.5 The urban fringe study involved an initial audit of the amount of suitable, undeveloped, unzoned land within the urban fringe of our towns which could potentially be developed for housing. The total yield for undeveloped, unzoned land within the urban fringe which could be developed for housing within the top two settlement tiers is 3,190 units. Further to the publication of the most recent Housing Monitor (2020) the development status of potential fringe land in the main and small towns has been updated as such the potential yield is estimated to be approximately 2,880 units. The update took account of whether identified sites have been since built out, subject to ongoing development or committed (for housing or any other use). These sites will be fully assessed as potential housing sites as part of the Local Policies Plan process.

2.6 The Undeveloped Zoned Housing Land Audit (2018) continues to be monitored yearly but no further updates have being carried out in regard to the Houses in Multiple Occupation Study (HMO) (2018) or the Zoned Housing Land Ownership Survey (2017).

NIHE Housing Investment Plan (HIP) Mid and East Antrim (2019-2023) – Update 2020

2.7 NIHE published their first annual update for the ‘Housing Investment Plan 2019-2023’ (HIP) in 2020. This report indicates that within Mid and East Antrim the social rented housing need for 2019 - 2024 is 676, a slight increase in need from the 2018 – 2023 period where the need was 643. The intermediate housing need for 2019 – 2029 has dropped to 570 from 660 for 2018 – 2028. Both the Housing Investment Plan 2019-2023 and Update 2020 have been made available on Council’s website with this Further Evidence Report for ease of reference.

NIHE Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) Mid and East Antrim

2.8 The NIHE present a Housing Needs Assessment each year to Council detailing the need for general needs social rented housing, supported housing and traveller’s accommodation with the Borough. The social rented housing need is normally projected for a 5 year period and in the latest annual report the total general needs social rented housing need for Mid and East Antrim Council for 2019 - 2024 has been assessed at 676 units.

2.9 As stated in Technical Supplement 3: Housing, NIHE also carried out a further HNA to project the social rented need until the end of the plan period - Updated 15 year Housing Need Assessment to 2030 (December 2018). This study used the 2015/16 social rented housing need for the Borough as a baseline and took account of units started since April 2015 and units programmed with planning approval. It estimated a social rented housing need of 1,331 units for the period 2018-2030. Whilst there has been no further update to this study the document has been made available on council’s website with this Further Evidence Report for ease of reference.

NIHE Housing Market Analysis Update (HMA) Mid and East Antrim (June 2018)

2.10 Whilst there has been no further update to the June 2018 HMA for the Borough the document has been made available on council’s website with this Further Evidence Report for ease of reference.