Science Health Diplomacy | Diplomatic Courier | May 2019 Edition by MG Publishing

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A Global Affairs Media Network VO L UME 13 I ISSUE 3 I M AY 2019

Science Health Diplomacy

COVER STORY

SOCIETY

TECHNOLOGY

GALLERY

CYBATHLON: A SCIENCE DIPLOMACY SUCCESS STORY

COMMUNITY OF ONE: THE RISE OF SCREENCAPITALISM

INFO OPS IN THE AGE OF CYBER WAR

BOKO HARAMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S DEN: MAIDUGURI, BORNO STATE, NIGERIA

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7 #MEGATRENDS FUTURE OF SOCIETY There is no question we will soon live longer, work less, and know more than ever before. But what will we do in this post-employment world? How will it function? How will society relate to knowledge, information and new social classes (those who have or create the knowledge and those who consume it)? Advancements are allowing us to re-imagine and re-engineer our world. But what will it mean for the Future Society?

FUTURE OF HUMANITY We know Artificial Intelligence (AI) will reign supreme in our imaginations but the World in 2050 will not be a battleground between AIs and humans. Augmented humans will test the limits of humanity and they are already walking among us now. Biotechnology and gene editing are allowing us to engineer a new kind of human.

FUTURE OF ENERGY Humans’ impact on the planet is so irreversibly profound that exploring alternative forms of energy will be paramount to humanity’s survival in the long term. Innovations and cutting-edge research is already in the works but the goal of our generation will be to become less and less dependent (and eventually completely independent) from fossil fuels.

OFF WORLD CIVILIZATIONS Space is the next great frontier for our civilization and becoming a multiplanetary species is one of the most important future forward achievements we can strive for. Advancements in space flight and moonshots by both private sector (SpaceX and Virgin Galactic) and government (UAE’s Mars 2117 initiative) will make ours the first Mars Generation.

FUTURE OF TRAVEL Flying cars, the Hyperloop, intergalactic travel? These are not Sci-Fi visions of the future but the world now. At the famous World’s Fair in New York in 1939, GM envisioned a futuristic society where highways connected the rural to the urban. With 70% of the world’s population moving to cities in the coming decades, innovating in the transportation realm will be paramount.

FUTURE OF HEALTH Humanity is struggling against bacteria and disease as well as noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Today our focus is on primary or secondary prevention. In the near future, we will be solving for “primordial prevention”, looking at prevention of the risk factors in the first place, and we will treat age as a disease that not only can be “cured” but can be prevented.

ARTISTIC VISIONS OF THE FUTURE What about art, poetry, or inventions for things and issues that have not even been imagined yet? What is the role of pop culture or film in solving for the future? This category is for the dreamers who will marry the practical to the whimsical.

LETâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CO-CREATE THE FUTURE TOGETHER.

Apply today for the annual list: www.2050challenge.com Each of these 7 megatrends represent fields of worldwide pivot points for change. How can your contribution direct us toward a better world in 2050?

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Contents VO L UM E 13 I ISSUE 3 I M AY 2019

06 I Editor’s Note The Science Health Diplomacy Edition

By: Ana C. Rold

08 I Cover Story Cybathlon: A Science Diplomacy Success Story

By: Robert Riener & Marianne Lucien

16 I Feature Community of One: The Rise of Screen-Capitalism

By: Jacksón Smith

20 I Feature Virtual Exchange: Tech-Enabled Learning for Today’s Interconnected World

22 I Feature Our Cyberpunk Present, Our Cyberpunk Future: What We Can Learn from Neal Stephenson’s Snow Crash

By: Daniel Clausen

24 I Feature The Value of Undisrupted Decision Making: Info Ops in the Age of Cyber

By: Daniel P. Bagge

28 I Feature Sudan’s Interregnum: The Fall of Omar Al-Bashir Doesn’t Guarantee Democracy

By: Daniel Mollenkamp

30 I Feature Has Europe Reached Peak Populism?

32 I Gallery Despite Assurances, Vietnam Arrests Returned Asylum Seekers

By: Carmen Munir Sluchanksy & Ryan Flynn

36 I Gallery Boko Haram’s Den: Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria

By: Emma Hall

40 I Book Review His Own Worst Enemy

By: Nathan Rauh-Bieri & Amy Gillett

By: Sam Denney

By: Rennie A. Silva

Masthead Publishing house Medauras Global publisher & ceo Ana C. Rold Creative Director Christian Gilliham director of social media Winona Roylance Contributing EDITORS Michael Kofman Molly McCluskey Paul Nash Chris Purifoy Winona Roylance Jacksón Smith Shane Szarkowski Shalini Trefzer

COVER Story Robert Riener Marianne Lucien

CONTRIBUTORS Daniel P. Bagge Daniel Clausen Charles Crawford Sam Denney Majula Dissanayake Ryan Flynn Amy Gillett Marc Ginsberg Justin Goldman Caroline Holmund Joshua Huminski Coby Jones Sarah Jones Daniel Mollenkamp Arun S. Nair Uju Okoye Nathan Rauh-Bieri Rennie A. Silva Carmen Munir Sluchanksy

Creative Contributors Michelle Guillermin Emma Hall Amy Purifoy Sebastian Rich Editorial Advisors Andrew Beato Fumbi Chima Sir Ian Forbes Lisa Gable Anders Hedberg Greg Lebedev Anita McBride CORRESPONDENTS Hannah Bergstrom Rong Qin

PUBLISHING. Diplomatic Courier magazine is produced by Medauras Global LLC, an independent private publishing firm. The magazine is printed six times a year and publishes a blog and online commentary weekly at www.diplomaticourier.com. PRINT. Print issues of Diplomatic Courier average 40-60 pages in length. Individual and back issues cost $10.00 per issue (plus S&H). Student rates are available to both part-time and full-time students with proof of school enrollment. New print issues of Diplomatic Courier are published and mailed in January, March, May, July, September, and November. Subscriptions commence with the next issue. EDITORIAL. The articles in Diplomatic Courier both in print and online represent the views of their authors and do not reflect those of the editors and the publishers. While the editors assume responsibility for the selection, the authors are responsible for the facts and interpretations of their articles. PERMISSIONS. Authors retain all copyrights to their articles. None of the articles can be reproduced without their permission and that of the publishers. For permissions please email info@medauras.com with your written request. ISSN. The Library of Congress has assigned: ISSN 2161-7260 (Print); ISSN 2161-7287 (Online). ISBN: 978-1-942772-01-9 (Print); 978-1-942772-02 (Online).

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LEGAL. Copyright ©2006-2019 Diplomatic Courier and Medauras Global. All rights reserved. No part of this publication can be reproduced without written consent of the publishers. All trademarks that appear in this publication are the property of the respective owners. Any and all companies featured in this publication are contacted by Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier to provide advertising and/or services. Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of information in this publication, however, Medauras Global and the Diplomatic Courier magazine make no warranties, express or implied in regards to the information, and disclaim all liability for any loss, damages, errors, or omissions. ART/PHOTOGRAPHY/ILLUSTRATIONS. In order of appearance: page 4, logomark by Issuu; page 6, photo by Joyce Boghosian; pages 8-12, photos courtesy of ETH Zurich by Nicola Pitaro and Giulio Coscia; pages 28-29, UN Security Council photo by Loey Felipe; pages 32-35, all images by Pixabay; pages 36-39, all images by Emma Hall; page 40, book cover image courtesy of the author; All other images and photos by Bigstockphotos.com, Unsplash.com and Pixabay.com. All advertising images supplied by the respective individuals, organizations, or companies advertising.

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Welcome VO L UM E 13 I ISSUE 3 I M AY 2019

Ana C. Rold Publisher & CEO

The Science Health Diplomacy Edition Six months ago, on a perfectly calm autumn day, I took one wrong step in front of my house in the dark, slipped, and fell. I broke my ankle in a spectacular fashion and my tibia and fibula tore apart. It was the first such physical injury I had ever sustained. I needed immediate surgery and I returned home in a wheelchair. At the time, it felt devastating—slowing down from public engagements, travel, inability to care for my little ones, and to navigate my own home—a colonial stacked house in Northern Virginia where all the bedrooms were on the second floor. Of course, there is nothing devastating about an injury that eventually can be overcome. But if nothing else, the experience brought to light how easy it is for everything to change in an instance and how unprepared we are to navigate mobility challenges. That is why the cover story for this edition (launching before the Global Health Assembly annual meetings at the UN in Geneva) resonated so much with me. Robert Riener, a biomedical engineer and professor for sensory-motor systems in the department of health sciences and technology at ETH Zurich, was moved by survivors of accidents—big and small—whose mobility has been compromised or impaired. As he explains, there are over a billion people in the world that the World Health Organization estimates are dealing with some form of disability—this issue knows no borders. An expert on how to address these issues with the help of the most cutting-edge technologies, he saw a bigger opportunity: societal change that comes from a platform where scientists and citizens can have a dialogue. This is not a story about gadgetry and scientific breakthroughs—although there is plenty of that to make professor Riener and his colleagues proud. This is a story about coming together as a society and placing people at the heart of the research and technology. That’s what makes Cybathlon a story worth telling. As I have written before, we live in an age of paradoxes: we produce enough food to feed the world over but people still go to bed hungry every night. We have an abundance of information and learning tools available but we are still grappling with illiteracy in certain parts of the world. And in healthcare, a massively broken industry (especially in the United States) we are on the cusp of witnessing some of the biggest breakthroughs humanity has ever seen. Beyond the innovation and the tech, the future of health centers on our elevated sense of purpose in life. This is why there is ample room for innovation and science to utilize diplomacy’s toolbox to achieve the nexus of technology for social good. ●

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THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION | WORK | ORGANIZATION

APRIL 27-28, 2020 | AARHUS, DENMARK WWW.GLOBALTALENTSUMMIT.ORG

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COVER STORY C Y B AT H L O N

Cybathlon: A Science Diplomacy Success Story By Robert Riener & Marianne Lucien

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CROEV FE RU G S TEOERSY C Y B AT H L O N

The world’s first Cybathlon—a competitive and collaborative Olympic-style event—launched a movement around the world. Here is how this movement advanced technology for assistive devices and sparked a meaningful dialogue between science and the world. Overview of competition arena, SWISS Arena in Kloten. Photo by ETH Zurich/Alessandro Della Bella.

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COVER STORY C Y B AT H L O N

lato had it right when he said, “Necessity is the mother of invention.” Six years ago, I read a fascinating account of Zac Vawter’s 103-story climb to the top of the Willis Tower in Chicago while wearing an experimental prosthetic leg. As a biomedical engineer and professor of Sensory-Motor Systems at ETH Zurich and University of Zurich, my 30-person lab and I were working on similar advanced technologies including prostheses, exoskeletons, neurostimulation, and powered wheelchairs. Inspired by Vawter’s climb and with a renewed sense of energy, I approached my research team with the idea of formulating a similar competition in Switzerland. With the noble goal of raising public awareness for people with disabilities, I also wanted to demonstrate how our research addresses some of the specific needs of this segment of society. My team and I moved forward, but it was not until I spoke with an acquaintance about the challenges he faced with his hook and cabledriven prosthetic arm that I realized there was a deeper, more meaningful mission ahead of me. While his prosthetic arm worked well for large movements, it was incapable of handling everyday tasks that require fine motor skills and bimanual coordination like carrying large objects or reaching into his wallet for cash. I realized that we needed to demonstrate the limitations that people with disabilities face in coping with everyday life and promote their inclusion in society. It was from this humble perspective that I founded the Cybathlon—an Olympic-style competition to facilitate the advancement of novel assistive

Functional Electrical Stimulation (FES) Bike Race. Pilot Mark Muhn, Team Cleveland USA. Photo by ETH Zurich/Nicola Pitaro.

technologies. Cybathlon hones in on advancing technologies for people with motor or sensory-motor disabilities creating a platform where they can engage in a meaningful dialogue with scientists, engineers, and society. MOVING PEOPLE & TECHNOLOGY Despite the prevalence of robotics in pop-culture, cyborgs like the Terminator and Iron Man exist only within the pages of science fiction novels, comic books, and the movies. The field of robotics is still very much in its infancy and while assistive technologies have come a long way, they are still in the early stages of growth. The barriers in everyday life —opening doors, climbing stairs, and even making breakfast—still pose a tremendous challenge both for people

Werner Witschi, a Cybathlon pilot for VariLeg, was up on the roof of a saw mill laying solar panels with his team. “I took one step,” he paused to reflect, “and I remember crashing through the roof. I fell 6 meters (18 feet) to the ground.

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dealing with motor impairment and for assistive tech developers. In addition to increasing the awareness of the needs of the disabled, the Cybathlon accelerated the development of assistive technologies. In 2015, we organized a rehearsal inviting research teams from around the world to test their new tech on different racetracks in a stadium and to refine the event disciplines. In contrast to the Paralympic games, we designed the Cybathlon events to embrace the use of any kind of technological aid. The aim of the competition was to enable teams to demonstrate how advanced technologies help to overcome the challenges of everyday life—challenges such as hanging laundry, slicing bread or going up and down steps. At that time, only one team had developed a stair-climbing wheelchair. A year later, at the official 2016 Cybathlon, 12 powered wheelchair teams participated 11 of which had stair-climbing technical capabilities. The first of its kind, the 2016 Cybathlon attracted 4,600 spectators in a sold-out stadium and 70 pilots— disabled persons who competed using novel assistive devices such as a brain-computer-interface (BCI), bikes driven by artificially stimulated

CROEV FE RU G S TEOERSY C Y B AT H L O N

Powered Arm Prosthesis Race. Pilot Bert Pot – TouchBionic (GBR) with Pilot Claudia Breidbach – Össur UEX (ISL). Photo by ETH Zürich/Giulio Coscia. muscles, powered arm and leg prostheses, exoskeletons, and powered wheelchairs. Researchers and developers from 25 different countries along with their pilots formed 56 teams. More than 150 members of the media covered the event resulting in 8 hours of live television coverage in Switzerland, Germany and Austria. The technology show, BBC Click produced a fulllength episode and interviews appeared on CNN, in the New York Times, the Yomiuri Shimbun, and the Wall Street Journal. CBS produced an episode on the Cybathlon for their series, “Courage in Sports” and Engadget produced an online series called, “Superhumans,” just to name a few. Nature and Science published scientific articles and three other journals responded with special issues featuring the development of

technologies from different teams participating in the event. The West African country of Sierra Leone even issued a series of postage stamps featuring images from the world’s first Cybathlon. The BBC named one of the event’s images as “the most striking picture of the year.” Finally, the 2018 Guinness Book of World Records gave the Cybathlon a special mention and the organizers won awards such as the European Excellence Award and the Yahoo Sports Technology Award. A SHIFT TO A “REAL WORLD” LAB The Cybathlon introduced a paradigm shift in biomedical research changing the way assistive technologies are developed and benchmarked. Placing people at the heart of the research process, developers began to work directly with people who need and

use assistive technologies. Most current assistive devices lack the type of functionality required of users leaving them feeling disparaged or even rejecting technological solutions altogether. We found that communication between developers, the impaired, and clinicians improved adaptation and resulted in solutions that overcome barriers in public environments. The process enabled a better understanding of day-to-day needs and furthered the development and refinement of technologies to meet those needs. Working side-by-side presented an opportunity for mutual understanding both of the functional needs of the pilots, as well as the technological limitations that engineers face. The exchange served as a tremendous motivator. You see, each pilot has a compelling personal story of survival.

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COVER STORY C Y B AT H L O N

Such stories evoked empathy and inspired innovation. During the Cybathlon, developers and spectators alike cheered on the pilots and the tears flowed. The races represented the culmination of a long journey and speed seemed irrelevant. Individual stories such as these ones have minimized societal and cultural differences and reminded competitors of their shared humanity: “I was snowboarding, hit a patch of ice, went down a 40-foot embankment, kissed a bunch of trees and came out as a C6, C7 quadriplegic.” (From a member of Team Cleveland) Werner Witschi, a Cybathlon pilot for VariLeg, was up on the roof of a saw mill laying solar panels with his team. “I took one step,” he paused to reflect, “and I remember crashing through the roof. I fell 6 meters (18 feet) to the ground.” (ETH Zurich) “Vance Bergeron (FES pilot for ENS de Lyon) was once an amateur cyclist who rode 7,000 kilometres per year— much of it on steep climbs in the Alps. But, in February 2013, as the 50-yearold chemical engineer was biking to work in…Lyon, France, he was hit by a car. The impact sent him flying through the air and onto his head, breaking his neck.” (Nature) Who better motivated to provide feedback than someone who directly benefits from the mobility offered by new life-enriching technologies? SOFT POWER OF SCIENCE DIPLOMACY The competitive spirit of the Cybathlon has not only fostered a rich international collaboration, it shifted the focus of research groups beyond the lab and scientific publications to a broader and

Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Race. Pilot Sebastian Reul, team Athena-Minerva (GER), Technische Universität Darmstadt. Photo by ETH Zürich/Nicola Pitaro.

ongoing discussion with society on assistive technologies, accessibility, and technology-enabled independence. Since the first competition in 2016, the Cybathlon organizers have continued the dialogue offering a series of Cybathlon symposia, exhibitions, and race demos featured in major venues around the world including the Winter Olympic Games in PyeongChang and the World Robot Summit in Japan. Cybathlon 2020 anticipates close to a hundred teams from 20 countries to participate in a two-day competition in Zurich, Switzerland. Goodwill is a natural by-product of a collaborative competitive event like the Cybathlon. In 2016, teams from Hong Kong to Iceland and from Brazil to China—engaged in both a friendly and competitive exchange. Cybathlon 2020’s Powered Exoskeleton race

places the USA head to head with Russia and the foresees a South Korean team facing China. Commonly used for furthering diplomatic agendas, in this case, science diplomacy wields a source of soft power that strengthens and fosters foreign relations. Cybathlon’s emotional impact sheds light on the value of both collaboration and competition to drive innovative assistive technologies. The WHO estimates that more than 1 billion people in the world today are dealing with some form of disability—an issue that knows no borders. If Louis Pasteur were alive, perhaps he might say that technology belongs to humanity just as he observed, “Science knows no country because knowledge belongs to humanity and it is the torch that illuminates the world.” ●

ABOUT THE AUTHORs

Vance Bergeron was once an amateur cyclist who rode 7,000 km per year. But, in February 2013, as the 50-year-old chemical engineer was biking to work he was hit by a car. The impact sent him flying through the air and onto his head, breaking his neck.

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Robert Riener is a biomedical engineer and a Full Professor for Sensory-Motor Systems in the Department of Health Sciences and Technology, ETH Zurich. He maintains an active role at the Spinal Cord Injury Center in the Balgrist University Hospital. Marianne Lucien is the International Communication Officer for ETH Zurich, the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, where she writes on science and technology.

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D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m COMMUNITY OF ONE

COMMUNITY I OF ONE: THE RISE OF SCREENCAPITALISM By: Jacksón Smith

t has become almost commonplace to declare modern politics consumed by a resurgence of nationalism—but that’s wrong. While there are compelling and important parallels between Brexit, MAGA, and the traditional Blut und Boden nationalism of the 20th century— we are living in an era defined by a new paradigm of personalization that is driving a tectonic shift in the way we imagine and identify with our larger communities. The stakes? A democratic world increasingly sacrificed to swaths of people who earnestly believe that governments are using chemicals to turn frogs gay, a version of reality where elections are determined by programmers, data-scientists, opportunist influencers, and Russian troll factories. In the mid-15th century, there were still thousands of languages on our Earth—as many languages as there were stars in the sky. Unsurprisingly, these languages were not clearly demarcated between English, French, Spanish, Italian, and Arabic with clear dictionaries and grammar books defining very succinctly what is and is not each body of words. Within Europe, as you moved from city center to city center, there was no clear understanding of which languages M AY 2 0 1 9 16

each city spoke. Rather, if you were a nomad, you would find yourself roaming a gradient of sounds in a continual ebb and flow of dialects, picking up new words and tones as fast as you could walk. Enter: the invention of mass literacy and the emergence of print-capitalism. At the turn of the 17th century, print capitalism had become the dominant logic, laying the foundations for nationalism with a series of powerful economic incentives for publishers embodied by a simple equation: to reach the maximum number of people you must publish for the lowest common denominator. This wasn’t a sudden revelation. Rather, publishers realized, over time, that the best and most efficient way to reach your audience was for you to find the lowest common denominator of words, of utterances, and letter combinations that could resonate and be widely understood. And so, as literacy became more widespread through education, languages started to coagulate and clump together for newspapers and magazines, pamphlets, and propaganda. Gradually, the world witnessed the emergence of the

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“The internet is a cesspool for the proliferation of dog-whistling— where language evolves, like hashtags for conspiracies, a secret-handshake to confirm you’ve tuned into are particular channel of truth, a particular web of relevant facts.”

modern demarcations of language— languages that would become inseparable from the identities, geographies, and demographics who spoke them. Language even became an object of ownership. My language is English. Their language is German. This form of print-capitalism— the intersection of economics and information—proved to be a massive accelerant toward the creation of modern nations, our imagined communities organized around language and territory. Language, as it turned out, was the central channel for stoking a sense of shared reality. Every morning, whole populations began reading their daily newspaper —and the only thing connecting all of the disparate, bizarre, and fragmented events embodied on that front page was a timestamp and a place. January 4th, 1901—Los Angeles Times. October 12th, 1921—The Missoulian. These newspapers became, in a sense, the best-selling novel of every day for their communities, crafting a coherent narrative of the on-going events and hubbub of the people as characters living within them. As each person read the unfolding story of their community in the paper, they could imagine 250,000 other Montanans, or 100 million other

The algorithms driving publishing and advertising aren’t programmed to siphon us into a liberal or conservative box, they’re programmed to mirror our preferences, in their infinite. Americans reading the very same paper at their own breakfast table, thinking their own Montanan, American thoughts with their own Montanan, American families. Even though most of those millions of Americans would never meet, they all played a pivotal role in each other’s imagination. So, are these same mechanisms at play today? At first, when the internet was created, you could have the New York Times in print and online. While the digital version was cheaper and eco-friendly, they were, largely, identical. But over the last two decades, another subterranean force was building momentum. The entire equation of print capitalism—to reach the maximum number of people by appealing to the lowest common denominator—was inverting.

Screen capitalism, marking the shift from print to digitally delivered media, follows an opposite incentive scheme: to reach the maximum number of people you have to appeal to the highest common denominators— limitless personalization. Suddenly the lowest common denominator represents all that is cliché, bland, and unappealing in a world defined by a wealth of information and a poverty of attention. If you’re able to deliver news to you that is personalized to you, that means algorithms are delivering the best-selling newspaper for each and every one of us, rather than whole communities. I do not know who is reading what or when. As I sit at the dinner table, headlines simultaneously vibrate through the bricks in each our pockets—How Giuliani Might Take Down Trump … Google Moves to Address Wage Equity—but which other families are seeing the same? One? Ten? One million? Rather than Extra Extra! paper boys yelling a common substance for conservatives and democrats to chew on, debate, and uphold—our central funnels for information have shifted to the subterranean black boxes of the internet, where a street full of people can be nose down in their phones,

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where the paper boy’s shouts are drowned out by the reception of ten thousand different articles, from and to whom, no-one is quite sure. Instead of the print-capitalistic forces that bred modern nation-states, screen-capitalism is now catalyzing a series of profound incentive mechanisms for the exact opposite— for the development of communities orbiting each of our own personal selves, for communities of one. Instead of the resurgence of nationalism, where people are tied together in a sort of common endeavor to self-create a unified nation around the state and territory, we are all individuals rising like raisins in raisin bread. As time moves forward, the space between us—representing our shared sense of reality, and with it a shared sense of what constitutes relevant facts— expands in a sort of cyber nation drift. Because part of personalization is a desire to be liked and with others, clumps of raisins emerge; our social milieu no longer created by chance or happenstance, but through algorithmic, scientific precision. This is where it gets weird. This is the only way to explain why there are people who genuinely believe lizards are the leaders of the free world, people who believe the earth is flat, people that believe Australians are actually actors, people that earnestly believe the Clintons and the Obamas are raping kids in pizzerias. The ‘other side’ is not one coherent, monolithic mass. The algorithms driving

While it is easy to scold Facebook for creating these algorithms, or pray for a statute to outlaw fake news— all are gross underestimations of the seismic forces rumbling our lives. publishing and advertising aren’t programmed to siphon us into a liberal or conservative box, they’re programmed to mirror our preferences, in their infinite (and sometimes disturbing) variety; news is no longer consumed and debated, it is instantly judged by its comparative ability to seize your attention. We have optimized our worlds for something— the ‘self’—that scientists have told us might not even exist. Echo chambers are an insufficient and misleading explanation for this phenomenon: the premise of an echo chamber is that, because of algorithmic personalization, we never experience the other side of ‘an issue.’ Logically, the remedy would be to merely expose everyone to more perspectives and viewpoints. But this contact-theory laden argument is flawed—we aren’t siphoned from the other perspective. We are constantly exposed to the other side—and how stupid they are, even when reading their own words. Rather, when we see the ostensible other side, our relevant-factbases have so far drifted apart that seeing the other side only confirms a

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single, cumulative truth: they’re insane—divorced from reality. Climate change is man-made. Climate change is a Chinese hoax. Vaccines are good for public health. Vaccines cause autism. The internet is a cesspool for the proliferation of dog-whistling—where language evolves, like hashtags for conspiracies, a secret-handshake to confirm you’ve tuned into are particular channel of truth, a particular web of relevant facts. (((John))). 56%. Alt-left. What kind of politician succeeds in this dynamic? Make America Great Again. Trump never says what this means. He just says it: Make America Great Again, allowing the recycled Reagan phrase to echo around the chamber of your raisin reality: ratifying your fears of public institutions still enveloped in systemic racism, or inspiring your dreams of a return to the glorious 1960s—because that’s the whole point. Lizards didn’t rule the world in the 1960s. What concrete actions are proposed? Build a wall. Cheap talk: words that are so inflammatory, so incredibly frustrating that he mobilizes, and therefore fatigues, countless heroes to take action against the unpredictable lottery of the credibility of his statements. Why is it that, at a time of seemingly unprecedented evil and horror, the devil incarnate! democrats can’t seem to muster a unity, a candidate, or a solid platter of candidates? Neither can Republicans. Trump talks like a horoscope— miraculously weaving a commonality

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between a profound number of raisins drifting further and further apart. Beneath his vapid and empty covfefe phrases, he transcends the traditional glib-speak of politicians standing on well-established virtues by transforming himself into a mirror. A circus mirror that seizes your increasingly scarce attention by amplifying your dreams and fears, making you fat or thin depending on the incidence of your angle. The only deal he’s made is to master the art of the horoscope, a mirror anyone can read into—deployed with pernicious efficiency in a world ruled by personalized engagement. While it is easy to berate Trump’s absurdity, scold Facebook for creating these algorithms, or pray for a statute to outlaw fake news—all are gross underestimations of the seismic forces rumbling our lives. Nationalism is evolving. The tectonic plates of reality are shifting because of screen-capitalism —and we must urgently update our seismographs to grapple with the actual forces increasingly changing the cognitive realities of people everywhere. It’s not that one set of facts is correct and one set of facts is incorrect; that this party is right and this party is wrong; that this group is uneducated and this group is educated; or, that this group is poor and this group is rich. The question is, how do we resolve this fundamental

Beyond just knowing truth, it is our job to step outside of the obviousness of our raisins and align meaning with truth. That’s ‘cybersecurity for democracy.’ tension: multiple sets of cognitive, raisin realities drifting away from each other without sliding into the false assumption that one set of facts is true and everything else is false or nothing can ever be true. That your raisin represents the true raisin. The Un-united Raisins of America. Nationalism itself—as a concept—is but a weaning child in the nursery of history. Prior to the 17th century, order and meaning in the world were undergirded by religious and dynastic conceptions of space and time, where kings ruled by divine right and families prayed that they might receive salvation at the end of times. When these institutions crumbled, people contorted in fits of meaninglessness as they grasped for new institutions that could fill the void—an innate drive for purpose, remembrance, and communities to love them back. Today, nationalism grows its adolescent legs into the next chapter of history. We find ourselves in similarly turbulent times. Our guts are wrenched by the searing unease of uncertainty at who or what to trust in the oceans of

data and information we drown in. As the traditional institutions of certainty waver, people are choosing to sip from a miraculous and sometimes disturbing array of meaning-making fountains— individuals, organizations, or whole countries who were lucky or quick enough to leverage new technology to ride the screen-capitalist wave. People seem to accept institutions of meaningmaking over institutions of truth, when forced to choose. Beyond just knowing truth, it is our job—as citizens, scientists, journalists, farmers, lawyers, bakers, plebeians, doctors, fishers to step outside of the obviousness of our raisins and align meaning with truth. That’s ‘cybersecurity for democracy.’ I woke up to these headlines this morning: Senate Has Voted to Overturn Trump’s Emergency Declaration. And: Crazy Wisconsin Candidate Claims Racist Text Messages Were Sent by Imaginary Friend. Headlines sent to me because of me, because of the zeros and ones that represent me held by servers somewhere, because of an algorithm that decided they were perfect matches for me—who knows who else received them. If they’re not true, what am I? ●

ABOUT THE AUTHORs Jacksón Smith is Senior Contributing Editor at Diplomatic Courier and CoFounder and Chief Technology Officer of the Learning Economy.

D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m V I RT U A L E X C H A N G E

VIRTUAL EXCHANGE: TECH-ENABLED LEARNING FOR TODAY’S INTERCONNECTED WORLD By: Nathan Rauh-Bieri & Amy Gillett

aced with a need to prepare large numbers of people to operate in a globalized economy, the world of education is increasingly under pressure to deliver. Despite the challenges, education is ready for new models of experiential learning. Enter virtual exchange: a technology-enabled, sustained, people-to-people education program, as the Virtual Exchange Coalition defines it. Virtual exchange sits at the convergence of several trends: readily available technology platforms (FaceTime, WhatsApp, Zoom, to name a few); a digitally fluent generation; and, student demand for experiential learning that prepares them for the workplace and lifelong learning. Moreover, as we consider the future of learning, we recall the challenges that education continually faces (according to MIT’s Senior Learning Community Officer, Sara Monteabaro): “refugee education, preparing youth for the workforce of the future, female empowerment, and twenty-first century skills development.” Virtual exchange can address all of these, as illustrated by a program we ran recently. This program included M AY 2 0 1 9 20

As a short-term program, a virtual exchange can be layered on top of other opportunities. It provides a form of stackable learning experience that students can commit to on top of regular courses and obligations. refugees, introduced students to marketable skills such as design thinking, built agency and confidence in its graduates (over half of whom were female), and gave them ample opportunities to practice skills they’ll need for the 21st century workplace. That is, virtual collaboration, teamwork, taking action on social issues, and understanding diverse perspectives. Dubbed M2GATE, this virtual exchange program connected college students from Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia, and Michigan and challenged them to design a social enterprise via virtual collaboration on crosscultural teams. Students learned how to identify a contextual issue, design a social enterprise to address it, and

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provides a form of stackable learning experience that students can commit to on top of regular courses and obligations. Power. Compared to in-person exchanges, which have their advantages, virtual exchange provides a more bidirectional and reciprocal form of education: without a “guest” culture and a “host” culture, students are able to approach each other on level ground and form interactions that are more equitable from the outset. This sense of peer-to-peer equity, when paired with a learner-centered approach, empowers students and builds their sense of agency.

pitch their idea to an international panel of judges. The program demonstrated some of the strong benefits of tech-enabled learning: Access. Many of our students were hungry for international relationships and experiences but were unable to study abroad due to resources, work or family obligations. Virtual exchange gave these students a meaningful international experience without leaving their campus. As one student said, “As someone who did not have the opportunity to study abroad, the virtual experience...allowed me to learn about and connect with like-minded peers from other cultures. Reach. A key feature of our program was that it was geographically dispersed, meaning it was open to students from schools all over, including rural areas. In the end, our students represented 103 institutions, which provided rich, diverse perspectives on culture and social challenges. Flexibility. As a short-term program, a virtual exchange can be layered on top of other opportunities. It

Skills-based. To work together successfully on teams across cultures, team members must listen to each other carefully and with respect. They also learn how to relate with courtesy across virtual media, known as digital citizenship. Through this experience, students gain the skills and sensitivities that will make them more effective in the increasingly globalized workplace. After completing the virtual exchange, students reported increased 21st century skills such as teamwork, perspective-taking, understanding of their peers’ countries, entrepreneurship, and global citizenship. Students also credited the virtual exchange with building their networks—with teammates and mentors—and their confidence. Virtual exchange, like any good experiential learning endeavor, provided (KSAs)—knowledge, skills, and agency (yes, attitudes too). Said one participant: “It was a great experience to learn how to navigate through cultural differences and come together as a team to create a product. This program also gave me the platform to practice the business acumen learned from the classroom and apply it to something tangible.”

The desire and need for students to connect across cultures is growing. Collaboration and crosscultural cooperation will be at the center of future work. Today’s tech platforms enable this, and the IT infrastructure is often already on campus. In the past few years, many virtual exchanges have entered K-12 and university curricula. These pilot programs—including M²GATE— provide a proof of concept for programs on campuses around the world. As with any innovative educational model, student success speaks. As more research and data on virtual exchange become available— and more pioneers share their success stories—administrators and other stakeholders will increasingly view virtual exchange as a viable form of experiential, engaged learning. The time is right. The desire and need for students to connect across cultures is growing. Collaboration and cross-cultural cooperation will be at the center of future work. Today’s tech platforms enable this, and the IT infrastructure is often already on campus. It takes instructor interest, institutional openness, and international partnership. We believe that with these elements, virtual exchange will take root in new educational contexts and do what it does so well: provide access to international perspectives to an array of students, build their skills and networks, and prepare them for the future of work. ●

ABOUT THE AUTHORs Nathan Rauh-Bieri and Amy Gillett develop training programs at the William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan and its Global Virtual Learning Center.

D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m CYBERPUNK FUTURE

OUR CYBERPUNK PRESENT, OUR CYBERPUNK FUTURE: WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM NEAL STEPHENSON’S SNOW CRASH By: Daniel Clausen

here is much that students and practitioners of global politics can learn from cyberpunk. As a genre cyberpunk has been described by Bruce Sterling as a “combination of lowlife and high tech”. But from the perspective of international politics, we might think of much of cyberpunk as a kind of techno-medievalism—a lumpy landscape of technology, tribalism, overlapping authority and sovereignty, and migratory identities. Some of the classics of cyberpunk include the writing of Philip K. Dick, especially Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? and its film equivalent Blade Runner, William Gibson’s Neuromancer, and Japanese manga such as Akira, which also became a major anime film. Cyberpunk has successfully predicted many of the current dynamics of international politics: abundant and anarchical information environments, layered realities, the rise of media personalities as international players, the rise of tribal politics, and negotiable identities. Hopefully, scarier things found in cyberpunk will not come to pass—hyperinflation even in supposedly stable currencies, the breakdown of nation-states at an M AY 2 0 1 9 22

alarming rate, and the creation of walled and tribal city-states. A classic cyberpunk, Neal Stephenson’s 1993 classic Snow Crash, can teach us much about our evolving future. In the book, the United States has been carved up into separate territories by gangs, churches, the mafia, and corporations. Each of these actors competes against (and sometimes cooperates with) one another to control territory, create spheres of influence, and to protect themselves from emerging dangers. The federal government claims sovereignty over all of its former territory, but in reality, it is only one actor in a landscape of sub-state entities and can only hold a small physical footprint. But physical territory is not the only entity these actors concern themselves with. Many people spend much of their time in a place called the metaverse, where they interact through avatars. This was years before the internet or social media became staples of our daily life. Perhaps one of the most relevant themes of Snow Crash has to do with identity. Identity is depicted as precarious, fragmented, and negotiable. In a world with weak, non-existent, or failing nation-states,

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Written in 1993, but forecasting many of the trends we see today—information overload and anarchy, tribalized worldviews, alternative currencies, and a new digital world—the novel is extremely relevant. As is the entire genre of cyberpunk.

it can also be highly tribal. How should we judge fiction vis-à-vis international political theory? First, like theory, we should judge it by its internal consistency. How much does the fiction obey the rules it creates for itself? And second, we should judge it by its relevance to the current world we live in. In other words, how much does the fictional world actually reflect and illuminate dynamics in the real world? Third, we should also ask in what ways the fiction surpasses theory (what I call explicitly stated theory, as opposed to the implicitly depicted theory of fiction). Is the fictional world of Snow Crash internally consistent? In the novel, the United States is an anarchical territory mostly dominated by “burbclaves” (relatively well-to-do suburban enclaves) “franchulates” (franchises that control and compete for territories), narcotribes, city-states, and the rump federal government (that articulates the practices of a government without actually governing very much). Does the fictional world obey the rules it creates for itself? For the most part, yes. There is certainly

a tonal consistency that carries the book. However, one does have to wonder how vital infrastructures are maintained. It seems as if principles of greed, honor, and cooperation within anarchy keep the territory known as America together. But this reality seems tenuous at best sometimes. The absurdity of this future is often its draw and its plausibility comes from the rich details the author endows the book with. The world-building is so complete that mid-way through the book, the reader can start to anticipate how things will happen. But there are still lingering questions. Without a strong central government, how do airports continue to function? How do nuclear arsenals remain secure (enough)? And why is the United States, with only a rump federal government, still considered the “First World” by the characters in the book? Second, is the novel relevant to the current world? Written in 1993, but forecasting many of the trends we see today—information overload and anarchy, tribalized worldviews, alternative currencies, and a new digital world—I would say the novel is extremely relevant. As is the entire genre of cyberpunk. However, since the novel is fiction and not theory or policy writing, the question could be asked: What wisdom, if any, can be pulled from this fictional world? To answer this question, we would need to go beyond the novel itself and ask another important question. How does the world become the world predicted in the novel? One key answer is the breakdown and hollowing out of public institutions.

In the novel, the CIA eventually becomes the CIC (the Central Intelligence Corporation) and the federal government becomes a shadow of its former self. The irrelevance of these organizations opens up opportunities for the Mafia, narcotribes, franchulates, and Asian city-states like Mr. Lee’s Greater Hong Kong (and its alternative currency Kongbucks). So, one possible answer to the question of what wisdom can be drawn from the fictional world is simple: restore trust in and renew public institutions. And finally, does the novel surpass explicitly stated theory? My answer to this question will seem wishywashy. I have always considered fiction as a superior form of writing because it can deal freely with the often blurred, curved, layered, and otherwise absurd aspects of reality. Fiction never has to smooth out the rough edges of the world. The very thing that makes it superior to explicitly written policy writing or international political theory, however, also leaves it lacking. An analytical interpretation of the novel—rendering it theory—kills much of what is unique and valuable in the world it has created, but at the same time makes it accessible to audiences with specific intellectual needs. In short, you give up the rich fictional world to gain the theoretical one. Which is more valuable? Well, like the hero of Stephenson’s novel, Hiro Protagonist (yes, that really is his name), who travels between the metaverse and the real world to accomplish his objectives, I suggest that you become a frequent traveler between worlds to live the richest possible theoretical life (rich in Kongbucks, of course). ●

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Daniel Clausen is a graduate of Florida International University’s PhD program in International Relations and an instructor at Nagasaki International University. His research has been published in Asian Politics and Policy, Electronic Journal of Contemporary Japanese Studies, and Culture and Conflict Review, among other publications.

D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m AGE OF CYBER

THE T VALUE OF UNDISRUPTED DECISION MAKING: INFO OPS IN THE AGE OF CYBER By: Daniel P. Bagge

wo hundred years ago, the primary commodity in interpersonal and international relations was the information itself. The ability to possess and provide information was of significant influence. Knowledgeable people were respected for the information they obtained and were able to use. However, the storage of data has shifted towards digitalized instruments. The amounts of data available are so significant that the commodity is not the information itself, but the ability to navigate through it and choose the right one to serve the purpose in decisionmaking. The equation from the past, when information was scarce, has shifted to the state where the amount of data is abundant, sometimes monstrous in size. People have started to store information and thus ceased to carry it along. The future includes the ability to analyze the piles of data and to decide what is relevant and vital and truthful. This new paradigm enables confusion, the undermining and spreading of information to either manipulate or to obfuscate the critical information. Decision-makers need information in order to conduct conscious M AY 2 0 1 9 24

decisions, and there are many ways to disrupt that process. If the aim is to minimize or cripple the ability to command and control, there are varieties of techniques for how to achieve that aim. Although the former Soviet Union was considered a military superpower, it sought alternatives to conventional military power. Years of underfunding during the Cold War and at the beginning of 1990s led to the advancement of theoretical and strategically essential concepts such as reflexive control. The imperative was not only to search for alternatives to physical and kinetic capabilities and conventional military might, but to address the changing environment in which the Soviet Union, and later Russia, found itself. The emergence of a single information space threatened the dominance of the state and security apparatus over the flow of information and its availability to the people, ordinary decision makers. It was true not only domestically, where competing information could have severe ramifications for the stability of the regime, but also internationally. Russian strategists soon realized thatâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;as was the case in the past, on a much smaller scale,

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With the dawn of information technologies people have unprecedented access to information, a fact which affords everyone a variety of choices when searching for information and creating their perception of reality.

when the controller of the situation held the key to achieving its strategic aim—the global information space or unified information sphere was a threat to the worldwide balance of power. Whoever controls perception controls reality with definitive impact on the assessment of the importance of information warfare. Russian military theorists and strategists have reached the conclusion that information has become a national or strategic resource. With the dawn of information technologies and the free spread of information in the somewhat anarchic nature of the information sphere, people have unprecedented access to information, a fact which affords everyone—ordinary people to top decision makers—a variety of choices when searching for information and creating their perception of reality. The informatization of society has penetrated all levels of existence and organizational aspects of the community. Because this includes economic, social regulatory systems, and the military itself, this leads to the conclusion that, by influencing the channels, the filters and the content, the controlling subject can achieve information superiority. Information superiority leads to attaining strategic goals without

exclusive reliance on conventional power assets. Russian strategists believe that countries that have obtained information superiority will be predisposed to employ military force subsequently. This is likely due to their belief that the controlling subject has control of the perception of reality, and thus is able to form a perceived forcible outcome. Also, military objectives may seem easier to achieve with the support of a complex influence operation. Although this is a position where influence operations are complementary to military activities, the theoretical approach followed in Russia illustrates the dynamic by stating that the convergence between nonmilitary and military is desirable and should be employed. Other characteristics of cyberspace which make it suitable for applying information operations for reflexive control are—absent international legislature—fewer legal restraints, less attribution to attacks and less enforceability. With a virtually nonexistent code of conduct combined with the features of the physical world, where hard evidence is obtained quickly in comparison to cyberspace, cyberspace has become a preferred avenue for influence operations—not

only because of its amplification features, but also because of the numerous ways to mask the identity and source of the attack. Where there is no crime, there is no prosecution. National legal frameworks differ in dealing with cybercrime, critical information infrastructure protection and cyber terrorism. In the vacancy of binding IHL for cyberspace with states only now trying to create rules of engagement, it is no wonder that cyberspace has become a lawless place ripe for exploitation and information attacks. The examples of individuals indicted for crimes in cyberspace are so few, and too personal—data-theft and illegal contraband-oriented—that pursuing tradecraft relocated to cyberspace is almost too difficult to describe; it is becoming more political with every successful information attack. Along with the other advantages of cyberspace such as reflexive control and influence operations, low cost of entry pays a significant role. The resource investment requirement here differs from those in conventional military procurement and is an order of magnitude less expensive. Another facet is the use of proxies to conduct the influence operations, information attacks with hostile code

D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m AGE OF CYBER

Although the former Soviet Union was considered a military superpower, it sought alternatives to conventional military power. Years of underfunding during the Cold War and at the beginning of 1990s led to the advancement of theoretical and strategically essential concepts such as reflexive control. and hostile content on behalf of the controlling subject. These proxies are affiliated indirectly or directly with the control subject. However, a whole market-based economy, reliant on supply and demand exists, which is ironic given the Marx-Leninist roots of the driving theories behind Soviet information operations. In this market, human skills not only can be bought, acquired or rented, but information is for sale, personal data troves useful for creating the profile of an opposing decision maker, stolen information about consumer behavior is available. Also, vulnerabilities and exploits are for sale for malicious code attacks and other computer network operations. Everyone can rent or buy the infrastructure, meaning computational power, for malicious activities. It is a significant shift from the conventional perspective of conducting intelligence operations, where private proxies and unknowing subjects were also utilized, but never on such a scale including all aspects of the action. Even in comparison with the conventional military power, it is hardly imaginable that a control subject would turn to a private citizen to ask for assets of firepower that the citizen is offering on the black market. Nevertheless, it is happening in cyberspace. The privatization and monetization of enabling assets for influencing whole societal systems is a few clicks away.

In April 2015, when the international community, including the United States and the European Union, were increasingly worried about the ongoing military campaign of Russia in Ukraine, pressure on the regime in Moscow was increasing. Diverting the international interest and lessening the pressure of potential countermeasures aiming at the administration in Moscow, a threat of higher significance emerged in the arena of international security agenda. Based on the correct perception that populations in the U.S. and Europe are more receptive to the threat of terrorism than a paramilitary operation in Ukraine, an attack was allegedly conducted by the Islamic state, Daesh, as an information operation in cyberspace. Cybercaliphate, a group affiliated as a proxy to Daesh, attacked the French television TV5Monde, affecting it by taking down all 11 channels, taking over social media accounts, website and the infrastructure of TV5Monde itself. The attack, among other vectors, resulted in displaying Daesh’s flag. Or at least that was supposed to be the perception, to alter people’s interest and to create pressure on political representation, diverting their attention towards more immediate issues such as Daesh. The reality of Daesh attacking Europe would lead to lessening the burden on Russia regarding their military operations in Ukraine. Several expert groups and M AY 2 0 1 9 26

media outlets attributed the attack to the proxy group APT28 aka Fancy Bear (aka Sofacy group, aka Pawn Storm), through means of circumstantial evidence regarding the technical infrastructure used for the attack. Tools, techniques, and procedures assigned to this group served as evidence. This was one of the first, and best, examples of how a previously military-oriented approach had a civilian application to meet the same ends. By nurturing fear, and creating a real or imaginary threat to the society, it was demonstrably easy to shift the focus of decision makers away from the issue at hand. Undisrupted decision-making being done on the strategic level or on citizen level is a key component to governance, political choices and future activities undertaken by individuals and state and non-state actors. By disrupting the ability to collect, analyze and decide, one is lost in today´s complex world, sometimes with assets unavailable to be utilized, because the decisionmaking algorithm has been compromised. ●

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Daniel P. Bagge lives in Washington DC where he works for the Czech government. In 2013 he was appointed as the Secretary of the Cyber Security Council, chaired by the Prime Minister of the Czech Republic. He is regularly invited to speak at cyber security events worldwide.

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D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m SUDAN

SUDAN’S INTERREGNUM: THE FALL OF OMAR AL-BASHIR DOESN’T GUARANTEE DEMOCRACY By: Daniel Mollenkamp

ast month, Sudan’s National Defense Minister Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf said that Omar al-Bashir, who had ruled Sudan since rising to power in an Islamic coup in 1989, had stepped down and was under house arrest. The military would attempt to retain control, it became clear, through the “transitional” military council. Since then, coverage has often said that his ouster marked the end of long-term Arab dictators or has theorized that it may mark the beginning of another Arab “spring.” Algeria has its own protests, after all. And Egypt fears that one is about to break out. The outlet UPI claimed that al-Bashir’s end may be a bad portent for Bashar al-Assad in Syria. However, if it does represent the end of long-term dictatorships it is also a period characterized by military rule. And whether or not the ouster of al-Bashir represents the beginning of an African, or even an Arab “spring” 2.0, is—to put it mildly—arguable. The emphasis, in other words, would have to be on the word “may.” Indeed, the question of the moment is whether it will represent a total democratic victory in Sudan. Is this likely to be successful democratization? Really, al-Bashir’s removal is not necessarily a sign of democratization to come, even though M AY 2 0 1 9 28

democratic protestors have been credited with causing the downfall. For instance, since the ouster of al-Bashir, and Defense Minister Ahmed Awad Ibn Auf, the military has yet to transition power to a civilian-led government, despite the exquisite courage and consistency of the protestors. In the meantime, the Sudanese people are being as repressed as ever: the constitution has been dissolved and the government has been disbanded in favor of a period of military rule which, we’re assured, will eventually end. Whatever the promises of the current de facto leader Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhen to “uproot the regime” and revoke curfews and clamps on free press and to release political prisoners and the rest, the reality has been, so far at least, merely a hysterical attempt at re-entrenching the military junta. In other words, the new leader is the same as the old. It may be worth noting that al-Bashir’s downfall was a relatively soft landing for an on the outs, aging frontman of repression since he has yet to face summary execution or international courts (Reuters has now reported he is in solitary in the Kobar prison, which was created during British colonial rule and, under al-Bashir, had its own very active wing for political prisoners).

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whether or not the ouster of al-Bashir represents the beginning of an African, or even an Arab “spring” 2.0, is—to put it mildly— arguable. The emphasis, in other words, would have to be on the word “may.” Indeed, the question of the moment is whether it will represent a total democratic victory in Sudan.

There is a subtle perversion of justice here, too. First, it would have been better, international standards of justice being as lackluster as they often are, were al-Bashir to face down in international court the laundry list of crimes that we’re now reminded he and his thugs committed. There was the repression of Christians and “animists” which “ended” with the creation of South Sudan which could probably be described as a permanently failing state; kept in that state of permanent near collapse in part, I might add, by subsequent tensions with the north. There was also the mass slaughter and rape of Muslims in Darfur by the Janjaweed militia and the Sudanese military (the one still in power). There was also the land-thieving that followed that genocide as well as what prosecutors at the International Criminal Court would later label “systematic acts of pillage.” Not to mention that Amnesty International has also accused the al-Bashir regime of having used chemical weapons. Still, this is a fascinating moment for Sudan. It was partly the fear of intervention that led Sudan, under al-Bashir, to reign in its subjugation of the South Sudanese rebels which led to the signing of the CPA in 2005 and the recognition of South Sudan by the

United Nations in 2011. At that point, al-Bashir had been forced to choose between persecuting the Christian South and risking it all or just persecuting the Muslim North. For reasons I have written about before, he chose to slaughter other Muslims. In that case, although he wasn’t thrown from power he was limited in his power. Something similar could happen here, though one hopes for the total transition to a civilian-led government. All of that is to say that concessions could be wrung out if we’re serious enough, and maybe not just for Sudan: repressive regimes all over Africa and the Middle East are leery and weary from popular protests. On the international point, quickly. Historically, Sudan has kept up ties with sheikdoms like Qatar, to the fret of powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This could conceivably change things. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates were (reportedly) prepared to back the military junta against the democratic protestors. Presumably, they would do so in the hopes of strategic gains. For example, that Sudan stops letting Turkey use Suakin Island to maintain a military presence in the Red Sea, as well as continued participation in the atrocities in Yemen, which Sudan has been an

active participant in. For the moment, though, it is unclear. Either way, this will have some international consequences. As for the western response: The vague western calls for a democratic transition or for sanctions would need (a) to be prepared for pushback from any or all of the interested states, and (b) to contend with the fact that it may harm the protestors at least as much as the military junta, which fears nothing so much as losing its vice-grip on power. If the west is to learn from its previous escapades in the region, it should be either all in or, more likely, all out. Reveling in the pointed details of the downfall of a gruesome dictator can sometimes strike a strange chord, as if one were basking, voyeuristically, in violence. But in actuality, it is not revelry so much as a jittery nervousness. Probably, the payoff of this expense of nervous energy is to vent the pent-up angst of the atrocities committed by the dictator in question. In a sense, as the motto for the state I’m writing this in says, sic semper tyrannis. To single out al-Bashir is not to scapegoat, exactly. Rather, it is to pathetically let the military junta off the hook, which is precisely what the forces of reaction are banking on, throwing the blame entirely on one already drowning rat for the sake of a whole pack. ●

D I P L O M AT I C O U R I E R .c o m THE FUTURE OF EU

HAS F EUROPE REACHED PEAK POPULISM? By: Sam Denney

rom May 23 to 26, the next European Parliament (EP) will be selected in what is probably the most consequential election for the European Union (EU) of this generation. With the backdrop of Brexit looming large, these particular elections are being closely watched, as they will serve as the first-ever test of Europe’s populists to organize across national borders. These elections will also serve as a referendum on several of the EU’s key national leaders who have been facing populist challenges at home, such as French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Yet despite the unexpected “success” of Brexit, it is not at all certain that the wave of populist support will continue unabated. While populists look set to gain seats overall, their lack of cohesiveness could dampen their larger plan of wresting control from Europe’s mainstream center-right and center-left parties, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). In response to criticism that power in the EU resided mainly with unelected officials in Brussels, the 2009 Lisbon Treaty greatly strengthened the EP by giving it the power to amend and approve all legislation proposed by M AY 2 0 1 9 30

the European Commission (EC), the European Union’s executive body, in addition to other substantial competencies. These much-praised democratic reforms were a particular windfall for right-wing populists. Many of the best-known Eurosceptics, like Jean-Marie Le Pen of the French National Front or Nigel Farage of the new Brexit Party, have used the EP as a bully pulpit to rally popular support for their policies, while simultaneously receiving generous paychecks from the European Union. For the May 2019 elections, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini announced the formation of a Europewide coalition to challenge the EPP and the S&D in Parliament. However, rather than seeking to take their countries out of the Union like Farage, Orban’s and Salvini’s goal is to gain control of EU institutions, in order to stop—or even reverse—the course of European integration and enlargement. This is the first time in European postwar history that significant political forces are rejecting the idea that the only way forward for Europe is deeper integration and enlargement on a supranational level. A key reason for this shift may be the chaotic spectacle of the United

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Brexit supporters, whether on the left or the right, had no single definition of what it would mean to leave the EU. Now almost three years later, Britain’s Conservative and Labour parties are still split between Remainers and Leavers.

Kingdom’s attempt to leave the Union. Brexit supporters, whether on the left or the right, had no single definition of what it would mean to leave the EU. Now almost three years later, Britain’s Conservative and Labour parties are still split between Remainers and Leavers, only adding to the difficulty of finding a common practical vision for Britain’s future after Brexit. The loose populist coalition that has set its sights on the EP is riven by similar splits and contradictions among various right-wing parties. Hungary’s Fidesz, France’s Rassemblement National (the former National Front), and the German Alternative für Deutschland are all, for example, overtly pro-Russian, which is anathema to Poland’s Law and Justice party. Italy’s Lega wants to redistribute migrants across Europe, which Eastern European populists bitterly oppose. Much like the Brexiteers, the OrbánSalvini coalition does not appear to have any clear vision for what their “Europe of nations” would look like, either philosophically or in practice. For example, what would happen to the EU budget is a big question mark, as the bulk of EU money currently supports economic development programs benefiting the EU’s poorer peripheral regions where, ironically, populists have won the most support.

Populist parties are currently projected to more than double their share of the 700-plus seats in the next EP, from five percent to more than 14 percent. While not enough to veto legislation or block personnel decisions, this result could give the group the ability to hold up decision-making and siphon off legislative control from the traditionally dominant EPP and S&D. The political chaos that could ensue would make the EU an even less dynamic partner for the United States and doom much needed reforms. A result that could potentially weaken EU institutions also makes May’s elections a prime target for another round of Russian political interference. Despite being on track to gain seats in Parliament, recent EU-wide polls suggest that populist support may be losing steam, with more than 62 percent of EU citizens saying that membership in the EU is a “good thing.” Even with Salvini’s and Orbán’s efforts to make migration a central election issue, European voters appear to be at least equally concerned about domestic issues like corruption and unemployment, topics on whichthe populists have poor track records. Recent elections in Slovakia and Finland signal that a backlash against the populists could be brewing. Zuzana

Caputová’s election to the Slovak presidency shows how allegations of corruption against populists can lead to mass mobilization against them. The narrow victory of the Finnish Social Democrats was their first in 20 years, heading off a far-right Finns Party that has been a significant presence in Finnish politics for several years. Along with the harsh lessons of Brexit, the lack of unity on policy and the increasing importance of good governance mean that the populists’ drive to take control of the EU from within may founder. All the same, those hoping to defend the European project would be wise not to take it for granted. ●

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Sam Denney is a Research Assistant at the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Prior to Brookings, he worked for the Europe Practice at the Albright Stonebridge Group, for the European Union Affairs unit at the State Chancellery of North Rhine-Westphalia in Düsseldorf, and for the Committee on Affairs of the European Union in the German Bundestag in Berlin.

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Despite Assurances, Vietnam Arrests Returned Asylum Seekers By: Carmen Munir Sluchanksy with Ryan Flynn

t was a stormy June night in 2016 when Van Huynh loaded a fishing skiff with rice, spices, meat, and fish—provisions that were supposed to be enough to last for a month at sea. Thunderstorms and large waves worried Huynh but her husband, Kiet Nguyen, was undaunted as he prepared the boat that would take them, their two children, and 13 other asylum seekers out into the vast ocean with little more to guide them than the slim hope they would make it to the shores of Australia and a better, freer life. “We wanted to leave Vietnam because our country has no human rights,” Huynh said. “We have no freedom here.”

The trip did not go as planned. The provisions ran out and they were forced to forage for food on islands along the way. The boat also started taking on water. On the 21st day they were stopped by Australian authorities and detained. Huynh feared that she would be returned to Vietnam and sent to jail. However, Australian officials assured her they would be fine; agreements were in place with Vietnam to ensure they would not be arrested. “The Vietnamese government did not keep their promise to Australia,” Huynh said. “They detained and interrogated us and sentenced my husband to three years in prison.” Huynh’s sentence was suspended,

she says, because of their two children. It has become a familiar refrain: Australia intercepts asylum seekers at sea, asks a few questions on their claim, then sends them packing with a pledge that they won’t be punished. But reports show that many are, indeed, arrested and prosecuted upon their return. “Australia claimed that it sought guarantees from Vietnam that no one returned would be prosecuted for actions to depart the country, but then said nothing publicly when Vietnam went back on that promise,” said Phil Robertson, Deputy Director for Human Rights Watch’s Asia Division. “In fact, we suspect that Australia is giving a

It has become a familiar refrain: Australia intercepts asylum seekers at sea, asks a few questions on their claim, then sends them packing with a pledge that they won’t be punished. But reports show that many are, indeed, arrested and prosecuted upon their return. M AY 2 0 1 9 32

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wink and nod for Vietnam to do whatever it can to stop boat departures but, again, any such discussions are hidden by a wall of secrecy in both Canberra and Hanoi.” In the most recent case, a boat with 17 Vietnamese asylum seekers ran aground near the mouth of the Daintree river in August and the passengers fled into the crocodileinfested mangrove to escape. After being picked up by authorities in Queensland, they were transferred to the Christmas Island detention center before being sent back to Vietnam in September. No one has heard from them since and attempts to track them down have proven fruitless. Vietnamese journalists and government officials have refused to answer even basic questions about their fate. The Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Vietnamese embassy in Australia, and the Australian Office of Home Affairs have

all declined to respond to repeated requests for information. Home Affairs even declined to answer whether they were attempting to track them at all. In fact, monitoring the fate of returnees seems to be outside of the purview of anyone in the international community. When contacted, United Nations agencies responded that they could not help. The International Organization for Migration office in Hanoi responded they were “not in a position to assist.” This is despite, in 2016, being funded by the Australian government to run a public information campaign in Vietnam to curb irregular migration to Australia. Similarly, a spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees said they just didn’t know, noting Australia was doing little to cooperate with the office. “Despite repeated requests that on-water assessments be shared with

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UNHCR in its supervisory capacity under the 1951 Refugee Convention, these documents have not been made available as a matter of course,” Caroline Gluck, UNHCR Senior Regional Public Information Officer, said via email. In 2016, the Office of Home Affairs signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Vietnam, saying that Australia would return Vietnamese nationals and Vietnam would take them back. They also claimed that Vietnam agreed that they would not face arrest upon their return. But the agreement has repeatedly been broken. Human rights advocates argue that, without a system in place for monitoring what happens to asylum seekers once they are returned, the Vietnamese government’s assurances are worth little. Last year, in response to a question by Australia Senator Nick McKim, immigration minister Michael Pezzullo admitted that no such system exists.

“As far as we know there has been no monitoring of anyone that Australia has returned to their country of origin,” Senator McKim, a Green Party member, said. “The Australian government’s record of returning people to face persecution in their home countries is refoulment, pure and simple. It’s a flagrant abuse of human rights, and we know that people have been arrested and punished in their home countries after being forced or induced to return.” As of yet, the Ministry of Home Affairs has not provided a response. When reports have surfaced that returnees were arrested, Canberra and Hanoi have placed the blame on human traffickers. In a statement released after the latest asylum attempt in September, Home Secretary Peter Dutton said, “The arrival of a people smuggling boat from Vietnam in late August is a reminder that the threat of people smuggling hasn’t gone away.” However, human rights lawyers and advocates point out that the very act of leaving Vietnam “without permission” is illegal. The Vietnamese Criminal Code openly provides for penalties of up to five years in prison for anyone who “organizes illegal

emigration,” effectively putting many of the asylum seekers in danger of imprisonment once they return. Advocates are increasingly concerned for the welfare of the 17 asylum seekers returned in September and believe that the secrecy is not a bug but a feature. “It’s not just the organizers who are facing prosecution, the reality is they all are,” says Elaine Pearson, Australia Director at Human Rights Watch, noting that outlawing emigration violates international law. However, “It’s in both Vietnam and Australia’s interest to flout international law” in this case. Human rights lawyer Hoi Trinh calls the “human trafficking” argument specious. “When people talk about people smugglers, it paints this picture of people who do it for money,” says Trinh who works with Vietnam VOICE, an organization that works on behalf of Vietnamese refugees around the world. “But really these so-called smugglers are usually people living in the same village, friends and supporters who organize these trips because, if you don’t have that support, how can you get out

of Vietnam? If you don’t have money, how can you get a boat?” Trinh argues that, while human trafficking exists, those trying to get to Australia are not human traffickers. He also disputes Dutton’s assertion that those making the trip are “economic refugees” (or “Armani refugees” as the Home Minister has derisively called them). “There’s no such thing as an economic refugee,” Trinh says. “You’re either a refugee or you are not. All asylum seekers have the right to apply for asylum and if they don’t get status, they are not refugees. But none of them are even getting a chance to apply and be heard. Legally, a refugee is defined as someone who has a well-founded fear of persecution. How can you find out if they have a wellfounded fear until you hear them and adjudicate their case?” Hyunh believes that the 17 recent returnees share the same fate as the many others who attempted to seek asylum before, including her family. “The Vietnamese government has labeled us unpatriotic,” she says. “We do not have human rights and our voices are not respected.” ●

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Boko Haram’s Den: Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria By: Emma Hall

igeria concluded its 2019 presidential elections on February 23, 2019 between two northern candidates, incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and opposition Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). With over 80 political parties running in the beginning, this race was an imperative and poignant time in Nigeria’s history. Elections were originally supposed to take place on February 16, 2019 but were postponed one week to February 23, 2019. Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the electoral body set up to oversee elections, declared

the postponement was due to “logistical issues.” INEC announced the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, the winner of the 2019 presidential elections. After the elections were announced, opposition, Abubakar, is currently challenging the results in court on the basis of “irregularities,” saying he won by more than two million votes. Inauguration day is May 29, 2019 and the court ruling will conveniently take place after President Buhari has been inaugurated for his second term. The past three presidential elections have been nothing short of bloody. In 2011, an estimated 800 people were killed in election related

violence. Boko Haram also took advantage of the country’s unstable political situation in the 2011 presidential election by bombing polling stations, killing gubernatorial candidates in Borno State, and shooting employees in the headquarters of INEC. Boko Haram’s involvement in disrupting presidential elections didn’t change in 2019.On election morning, Maiduguri experienced seven RPG explosions as a scare tactic for voters. They were set off at 06:00, released within a 10-minute period. With polling stations opening two hours later, voters still showed up despite the unstable atmosphere.

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Boko Haram has been the root of grief and suffering throughout Nigeria for the past 10 years. According to the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), across the three main affected states, Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe 7.1 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance out of the population of 13.4 million. Of that, over 80% of the population in Borno State are internally displaced peoples (IDP) in 2019 alone. Founded in 2002, Mohammed Yusuf started what is now known as Boko Haram in Maiduguri, Nigeria. His aim was to attract poor Muslim families across the country, with the political goal of creating an Islamic State. By denouncing police and state corruption, he groomed unemployed and vulnerable youth to join his group. By 2009, Boko Haram started its uprising and curated suicide bombs, kidnappings, and executions. The groupâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s main targets were and still

are today, government officials and buildings, mosques, and police headquarters. Originally being based on the outskirts of Maiduguri in a community named, Bulabulin Ngaranam, as Boko Haram grew in size, it relocated to a place now known as Sambisa Forest. This forest is an ambiguous place Nigerians rarely speak of, but is held heavy in their hearts. You can land in Maiduguri and ask the first person you see if they know someone affected by Boko Haram and the answer will be yes. Executions and kidnappings are almost normalized now because of how frequently they happen. Arriving in the city I had no idea the kinds of stories people would be willing to share with me. It was through a mutual friend that I had the opportunity to meet with three children who were held captive by Boko Haram for five years and risked their lives to escape just two months ago.

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The three children have the same father. Their uncle is a Boko Haram member who took them to the Sambisa Forest to live there without telling their father. Aisha and her little brother, Muhammed, who were kept in a separate camp than Lucas, fled for their lives while ordered to collect food in the forest. A risky attempt that many children had tried and failed. Aisha and Muhammed were eventually found by soldiers and taken to a safe place in case their uncle went in search of them. Lucas had no idea if his brother and sister were alive. He also was brave enough to run away while collecting food just two weeks after his siblings. He made it to an abandoned gas station where he met 12 other kids who had escaped. Many malnourished, dehydrated, and sick. After leaving the gas station to continue his trek to safety, Lucas was the only kid alive that didnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t die from hunger or dehydration. Soldiers found him and took him to a

hospital for treatment. Their father had been looking for his kids for five years by the time he was reunited. The kids sit at their school where they have started intensive therapy and the integration process into a “normal” life. Though the trauma has impacted them so intensely, their lives can never be “normal.” Usually when taking portraits, I have to ask kids not to smile, this was not the case when taking their picture. They stared at me, eyes glazed over and crossing their arms to put on a strong face. When speaking about her experiences, Aisha couldn’t stop fidgeting with her skirt and her legs were shaking up and down, a clear sign of PTSD. She has barely opened up to her therapist

about the traumas she endured, but was brave to share one story of her and her friends being used as human shields when the military attacked Boko Haram. The insurgency believed the military wouldn’t shoot at kids. Many children lost their lives and had severe injuries, receiving only paracetamol to treat wounds; simple infections became life threatening. The sad truth of this story is that it isn’t the only one. There are many men, women, and children that share similar stories and traumas like this. When you talk to the locals, there are varying opinions about the government’s role in eradicating Boko Haram. Some believe the government is purposely not killing off the terrorist

group in order to keep more money flowing within the military and the country. Others believe the Nigerian army just isn’t capable, and most importantly, they believe that the change they were promised by the president will happen. Although each candidate discussed the actions they planned to change in regards to Boko Haram, the conversation surrounding the issue just isn’t enough. And the people of Nigeria keep waiting for the change they are told will come every election. There is no greater burden than bearing an untold story within you, and all those affected by Boko Haram and the empty promises will continue being burdened until the government allows them to tell their stories. ●

Usually when taking portraits, I have to ask kids not to smile, this was not the case when taking their picture. They stared at me, eyes glazed over and crossing their arms to put on a strong face.

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ichard Holbrooke was always in motion. The one occasion I caught a glimpse of him was a panel discussion where he spoke alongside Zbigniew Brzezinski and Brent Scowcroft (Henry Kissinger was scheduled to participate but cancelled at the last minute). Sitting shoulder to shoulder with the foreign policy mandarins of the 20th century, Holbrooke was in his element. But as I ducked out of the packed auditorium early, out a few steps ahead of me in the hallway strode the pinstriped man himself. Prematurely departing his own event, he had stepped off the stage as Scowcroft was in mid-sentence. Our Man is the story of a man who couldn’t sit still; the people, places, ideas, and events he somehow managed to pack into his sixty-nine years spanned half a century of his country’s history at the pinnacle of its power. In capturing the essence of Richard Holbrooke and the era he embodied, George Packer portrays a figure far more fraught than I ever imagined. Packer reveals, for example, how Holbrooke’s insatiable appetites early on came between him and Anthony Lake as the two men started their careers together in the Foreign Service in Vietnam. They had been best friends, but Holbrooke’s infidelity irreparably damaged their relationship, nurturing an enduring disdain for his brash selfishness. Lake, serving as a chief foreign policy advisor to the presidential campaign of Barack Obama forty years later, would help ensure that Holbrooke was excluded from the senior ranks of the new administration. As the book delves into the intervening years of Holbrooke’s life, more troubling signs of his character emerge. In Bosnia, he employed his legendary combination of diplomatic skill and sheer force of personality to end the war and secure a peace agreement between the intransigent leaders of the former Yugoslavia. Yet, according to Packer, he distorted facts surrounding the most tragic chapter of the negotiations, the accident on Mount Igman outside Sarajevo that claimed the lives of three members of his delegation. Our Man describes how Holbrooke exaggerated his and Wesley Clark’s role on that fateful day and overlooked that of Lieutenant Colonel

HIS OWN WORST ENEMY

Book review by Rennie A. Silva

Randall Banky, who in fact had been the first to reach the crash site and assist the victims. After Holbrooke wrote Banky’s heroism out of history, the lieutenant colonel was passed over for promotion, ending his military career. Our man uncovers so many unflattering aspects of Holbrooke’s professional and personal life that in places it is painful to read. He appears as the lunch partner who always managed to pass the tab off to someone else; the banker who, after spending all his years out of government safely ensconced in the world of high finance, was at a loss to manage his own finances; and the grandfather who might not have been able to recognize his grandchildren. These stories are as abundant as they are uncomfortable, but nonetheless are parts of a vividly detailed non-fiction narrative that aims to capture its subject in full. Above it all, Holbrooke kept his sights on securing the place in history he always yearned for. After eventually landing a job in the Obama administration as Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, he told colleagues that “every administration needs a George Ball”, the prescient Under Secretary of State who had been the lone voice of dissent over the escalation of the war in Vietnam during the Kennedy and Johnson administrations. With Ball as his lodestar, Holbrooke envisioned playing M AY 2 0 1 9 40

an analogous role for a new president preparing to grapple with a growing insurgency in South and Central Asia and deliberate over a troop surge. But Our Man makes clear that, despite Holbrooke’s qualifications, events showed him to be ill-suited for the Obama White House. His obsequiousness irritated Obama, as did his histrionics (after Holbrooke dramatically compared Obama’s looming decision over force levels in Afghanistan to Lyndon Johnson’s decision to deploy combat troops to Vietnam, the President asked incredulously, “Richard, do people really talk like that?”). Fearful of losing the support of his last remaining patron, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Holbrooke muted himself and refrained from forcefully highlighting the perils of an open-ended military commitment without a viable political strategy. Richard Holbrooke was no George Ball. But he still possessed vastly more experience than anyone else then in the White House Situation Room. The last of his generation, the veteran diplomat had witnessed the limits of American power firsthand decades earlier as a Foreign Service Officer overseeing the American pacification effort in the Mekong Delta. Holbrooke carried those lessons with him his entire career. Yet they still were fated to culminate in its greatest tragedy when, half a century after Vietnam, he was unable to prevent his country from repeating similar mistakes in Afghanistan. A passionate student of history his entire life, in his twilight hour Holbrooke became a prisoner of it. History never would yield to Holbrooke’s lifelong ambition of becoming secretary of state. Some who knew him, such as former Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, have held that a Gore administration would have included Holbrooke in the number one job in Foggy Bottom. But according to the then-vice president’s top foreign policy aide, Leon Fuerth, Holbrooke simply had more enemies and brought more drama than Gore had been willing to tolerate. In the end, Holbrooke’s immense talents were ultimately undercut by his profound shortcomings; they make the story of his exceptional life as tragic as it is fascinating. “Better to write a novel about Richard Holbrooke than a biography” his best friend, Les Gelb, once said. Packer has proven how right Gelb was. ●

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