Quarterly Operational Update Three months ended 30 September 2012
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
6
%
electricity sales volumes to customers increased 6%, reflecting continued growth in business volumes
3
%
overall generation volumes down 3%, with strong hydro volumes offset by lower gas-fired and geothermal generation
19
%
generation purchase costs fell 19%, largely attributable to an improvement in relative North to South Island wholesale prices
COMMENTARY
mighty river power achieved a 3% lift in its electricity sales price to customers, from $115.63/ MWh to $119.37/MWh; and a 6% increase in electricity sales volumes to customers on the prior comparable period (pcp). The Company achieved an uplift of 22% in sales volumes to its business customers during the first quarter of FY2013; 721GWh compared with 589GWh in the same period in FY2012. The uplift in business volumes was driven by increased sales activity, particularly to medium-sized commercial customers, ahead of increased competition in the segment and in anticipation of the commissioning of the Ngatamariki Geothermal Station, due to move into commercial operation in mid-2013. Retail customer numbers were up 2% on pcp, and increased by 8,000 since year-end. Contributing to the increase was the migration of almost 5,000 customers from Meridian Energy to Mighty River Power’s GLO-BUG pre-pay product in September. Whilst the Company’s total generation volumes fell by 56GWh (3%) on pcp due to lower geothermal and gas-fired generation, hydro volumes were up 6% on the strong first quarter of FY2012. The increase was indicative of higher inflows into the Waikato River catchment than those seen during the same period in FY2012, and attractive wholesale market prices in July and August. The 54GWh fall in consolidated geothermal volumes reflects the sale of 10% interest in the Nga Awa Purua Geothermal Station in April 2012 (34GWh), and a planned outage at Mighty River Power’s Kawerau Geothermal Station during the period. Generation from the Company’s gas-fired plant at Southdown in Auckland was down 88GWh on pcp from 220GWh to 132GWh, reflecting lower wholesale prices. The price Mighty River Power received for its generation sales fell from $79.13/MWh to $65.30MWh, reflecting the fall in wholesale market prices. Electricity purchases costs fell 19% from $84.19 in Q1 of FY2012 to $67.99 in Q1 FY2013, largely attributable to an improvement in relative North Island to South Island wholesale prices. Storage in Lake Taupo ended the quarter at 416GWh, 22% above average, also reflecting the higher inflows and low wholesale prices in September. The Net Contracts for Difference (CfD) at 406GWh was comparable with pcp. The significant increase in both buy and sell CfDs was due to location hedging.
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
01
OPERATING STATISTICS
Three months ended 30 September 2012
Operating Information
Three months ended 30 September 2011
VWAP1
Volume
VWAP
Volume
Electricity Sales
($/MWh)
(GWh)
($/MWh)
(GWh)
FPVV sales to customers
$119.37
1,505
$115.63
1,423
FPVV sales to residential customers
784
FPVV sales to business customers
721
589
1,628
1,492
FPVV purchases from market Spot customer purchases
835
546
Total NZEM purchases
$67.99
2,175
499 $84.19
Electricity Customers (number)
394,000
387,000
North Island customers
353,000
350,000
South Island customers
41,000
37,000
Dual fuel customers
40,000
Contracts for Difference
1,991
39,000 Volume
Volume
(GWh)
(GWh)
Buy CfD
766
370
Sell CfD
1,173
842
407
472
Net Sell CfD VWAP Electricity Generation Hydro Gas Geothermal (consolidated)
2
Volume
VWAP
($/MWh)
(GWh)
($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
$65.69
1,314
$79.52
1,234
$79.01
132
$89.00
220 513
$60.68
459
$74.69
Geothermal (equity accounted)3
$62.23
64
$72.77
58
Total
$65.30
1,969
$79.13
2,025
2
LWAP/GWAP
1.04
1.06
Gas purchases4
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
Retail purchases
$8.81
0.40
$8.63
0.41
Generation purchases
$8.75
1.26
$8.63
1.95
Carbon emissions (tonnes CO2e)
151,000
201,000
VWAP is volume weighted average energy only price sold to FPVV customers after lines, metering and fees
1
Includes our share of Nga Awa Purua generation
2
Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share
3
Prices exclude fixed transmission charges
4
Five year history of operating statistics in Excel
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
02
MARKET DATA
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE 12 MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE Mighty River Power Meridian Energy Contact Energy Genesis Energy TrustPower
16%
30%
17%
27%
23%
18%
5%
Financial Year 2011
24%
21%
6%
Financial Year 2012
Source: Electricity Authority Centralised Dataset
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE THREE MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER Mighty River Power Other
18%
82%
Financial Year Q1 12
21%
79%
Financial Year Q1 13
Source: Mighty River Power Purchases and Transpower Information Exchange
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
03
otahuhu wholesale price and national hydro storage levels FY2013 storage Rolling 12 month average Otahuhu electricty price National storage average
3000
91 90
2500
89 88
2000
1500
86
GWh
$/MWh
87
85 1000
84 83
500
82 81
01 Jul
08 Jul
15 Jul
22 Jul
29 Jul
05 Aug
12 Aug
19 Aug
26 Aug
02 Sep
09 Sep
16 Sep
23 Sep
0
30 Sep
taupo storage FY2013 FY2012 Average since 1999
600
500
GWh
400
300
200
100
0
01 Jul
08 Jul
15 Jul
22 Jul
29 Jul
mighty river power quarterly operational update
05 Aug
12 Aug
19 Aug
26 Aug
02 Sep
09 Sep
16 Sep
23 Sep
30 Sep
04
OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at 30 September 2011 As at 30 June 2012 As at 30 September 2012
100 90
$88.00
$89.80 $83.54
$78.49
80
$78.76
$70.15
70 $/MWh
$86.03
$83.36
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
2013
2014
2015
Financial Year
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at 30 September 2011 As at 30 June 2012 As at 30 September 2012
120
100
$96.69
$96.19
$90.86
$90.46
$89.68
$84.09
$83.05
$/MWh
80 $66.71
60
40
20
0
2013
2014
2015
Financial Year
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
05
NATIONAL CONSUMPTION National consumption Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter consumption
12,000 1,373
1,345
10,000
1,345
1,345
1,314
GWh
8,000
6,000
1,202
1,204
1,367
1,303
9,467
9,447 8,458
8,619
7,970
4,000
9,350
8,834
8,199
7,946
2,000
0
Q1 11
Q2 11
Q3 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Financial Year Source: Transpower Information Exchange
NATIONAL CLIMATE SUMMARY Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY2013
12.3˚ C
n/a
n/a
n/a
FY2012
11.5˚ C
16.6˚ C
18.9˚ C
14.0˚ C
FY2011
12.2˚ C
17.1˚ C
20.2˚ C
15.1˚ C
Historical Average (since 1999)
12.0˚ C
16.3˚ C
19.6˚ C
14.3˚ C
Source: NIWA
MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPS) ICP Retail Switching % Churn
25%
60,000
50,000
20%
40,000
30,000 10%
% Chum
ICPs
15%
20,000 5%
10,000
0
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
07
07
08
08
08
08
09
09
09
09
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
12
12
12
0%
Source: Electricity Authority
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
06