Quarterly Operational Update Three months ended 30 June 2013
QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
Q4
3
=
FOURTH QUARTER operational
statistics in line with company expectations
%
SALES TO CUSTOMERS down 3% on prior comparable period (pcp), but up 5% year on year
16
%
TOTAL GENERATION down 16% on pcp as a result of lower hydro generation
COMMENTARY MIGHTY RIVER POWER’S operating
statistics for the quarter to 30 June 2013 confirm the Company’s full year operational figures to be in line with expectations included in the Mighty River Power Share Offer Investment Statement and Prospectus (dated 5 April 2013). Electricity sales volumes to customers decreased 3% on the prior comparable period (pcp), driven by lower volumes to commercial customers, which were down from 679GWh to 638GWh. However, sales for the year to 30 June 2013 were up 5% to 5,252GWh. Business volumes in the quarter reflect the tail of strong growth with medium-sized commercial customers, offset by a drop in volumes of sales to small and large commercial customers. The average price received from customers over the quarter was $126.76/MWh, and $117.28/MWh for the 12 months. Overall electricity generation volumes were down 16% on the pcp, and down 9% for the 12 months to 30 June 2013, largely as a result of reduced hydro production due to lower-than-average inflows into the Waikato catchments. In April, Mighty River Power recorded the lowest monthly hydro production on record having started the quarter with storage at 33% of historical average. The Company saw an improvement in inflows into the catchments later in the quarter, which was expected for that time of the year, and ended the financial year with storage at 79% of historical average. Geothermal production in the quarter was lower than pcp, primarily due to planned maintenance at the Mokai and Kawerau stations. In addition to the 1,379GWh total generation during the quarter, Ngatamariki has generated 61GWh during commissioning activity in the period, which is not included in the reported figures. Gas-fired generation volumes were also down on the pcp due to lower wholesale market prices following higher inflows (compared to the pcp) into other generators’ South Island hydro catchments. The level of buy-side contracts for difference (CfD) increased on the pcp, principally reflecting new hedging arrangements to minimise the Company’s downside exposure during a sustained period of drought induced low hydro generation. The Company saw an improvement on the pcp in the relative wholesale price it received for its generation compared to the wholesale price paid for purchases (LWAP/GWAP), which moved from 1.13 to 1.03 through active portfolio management, an improved national grid configuration and lower South Island pricing relative to the North Island. Mighty River Power will release its financial results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2013 on Wednesday 28 August 2013.
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
01
OPERATING STATISTICS
Three months ended 30 June 2013
Operating Information Electricity Sales FPVV sales to customers
Twelve months ended 30 June 2013
Twelve months ended 30 June 2013 PFI1
Twelve months ended 30 June 2012
VWAP2 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
126.76
1,316
122.32
1,359
117.28
5,252
117.00
5,190
115.48
5,021
FPVV sales to residential customers FPVV sales to business customers FPVV purchases from market Spot customer purchases Total NZEM Purchases
Three months ended 30 June 2012
82.17
678
680
2,550
2,609
638
679
2,702
2,412
1,379
1,436
5,539
5,323
469
505
2,058
2,035
1,848
113.36
1,941
75.80
7,596
65-75
94.68
388
386
388
386
North Island Customers
349
350
349
350
South Island Customers
39
36
39
36
41
41
41
41
Electricity Customers (000’s)
Dual Fuel Customers
7,358
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
Buy CfD
704
553
2,644
1,708
Sell CfD
784
791
3,841
3,224
80
238
1,196
Contracts for Difference
Net Sell CfD
Electricity Generation Hydro Gas 3
Geothermal (consolidated)
Geothermal (equity accounted) Total
4
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
81.89
737
102.72
905
75.45
89.83
107
109.48
179
75.38
5
92.14
76.49
57
80.03
1,379
478
1.03
LWAP/GWAP Gas Purchases
1,589 Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
3,944
3,928
87.89
4,294
102.53
425
418
100.97
589
493
70.54
1,855
1,843
82.11
1,946
93.41
63
70.92
237
244
81.80
239
99.92
1,640
75.65
6,462
6,433
87.18
7,068
1.13
VWAP ($/MWh)
1,516
1.00
1.09
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
Retail purchases
8.73
0.32
8.67
0.34
8.88
1.09
8.73
1.10
Generation purchases
8.39
1.05
8.34
1.67
8.66
4.17
8.18
5.47
6
Carbon Emissions (‘000 tonnes CO2e)
141
174
537
1.
PFI is prospective financial information as outlined in Mighty River Power’s Investment Statement and Prospectus (dated 5 April 2013)
2.
VWAP is volume weighted average energy only price sold to PFVV customers after lines, metering and fees
3.
Includes our share of Nga Awa Purua generation
4.
Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share
5.
Excludes generation volumes from Ngatamariki during the quarter as commissioning process continues
6.
Prices exclude fixed transmission charges
628
Five year history of operating statistics in Excel
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
02
MARKET DATA
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE TWELVE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE Mighty River Power Meridian Energy Contact Energy Genesis Energy TrustPower Other
17%
26%
24%
21%
6%
6%
7%
5%
Financial Year 2012
16%
30%
24%
18%
Financial Year 2013
Source: Electricity Authority Centralised Dataset
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE TWELVE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE
Mighty River Power Other
19%
81%
19%
81%
Financial Year 2012
Financial Year 2013
Source: Mighty River Power Purchases and Transpower Information Exchange
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
03
OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS National storage average FY2013 storage
5000
100
4500
90
4000
80
3500
70
3000
60
2500
50
2000
40
1500
30
1000
20
500
10
0 01 Jul
$/MWh
GWh
Rolling 12 month average Otahuhu price
0 01 Aug
01 Sep
01 Oct
01 Nov
01 Dec
01 Jan
01 Feb 01 Mar
01 Apr
01 May
01 Jun
TAUPO STORAGE Average since 1999 FY2013 FY2012
600
500
GWh
400
300
200
100
0 01 15 29 12 26 09 23 07 21 04 18 02 16 30 13 27 10 24 10 24 07 21 05 19 02 16 30 Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jun
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
04
OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at (30 Jun 2012) As at (31 Dec 2012) As at (31 Mar 2013) As at (30 Jun 2013)
100 $85.38
90 $79.75
$86.03
$83.36 $77.56
80 $71.43
$71.13
$74.70
$74.09
$73.39
$70.30
$66.09
70
$/MWh
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2013
2014
2015
Financial Year
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at (30 Jun 2012) As at (31 Dec 2012) As at (31 Mar 2013) As at (30 Jun 2013) 120
100
$96.69 $90.86
$90.46
$74.38
80 $/MWh
$72.61
$73.83
$66.25
$63.94 60
$79.46
$78.56
$69.13 $57.69
40
20
0 2013
2014
2015
Financial Year
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
05
NATIONAL CONSUMPTION National consumption Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter consumption 12,000 1,373
1,345
10,000
1,345
1,204
1,345
1,367
1,314
1,202 1,231
1,303
1,196 1,230
GWh
8,000
6,000 9,447 4,000
8,458
7,970
Q2 11
Q3 11
8,619
9,467 8,199
7,946
Q2 12
Q3 12
8,834
9,350
Q4 12
Q1 13
8,363
7,991
Q2 13
Q3 13
8,665
2,000
0 Q1 11
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q4 13
Financial Year Source: Transpower Information Exchange
NATIONAL CLIMATE SUMMARY
Financial Year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2013
12.3° C
16.5° C
19.6° C
14.4° C
2012
11.5° C
16.6° C
18.9° C
14.0° C
2011
12.2° C
17.1° C
20.2° C
15.1° C
Historical Average (since 1999)
11.9° C
16.1° C
19.4° C
14.1° C
Source: NIWA
MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPS) ICP Retail Switching % Churn 60,000
25%
50,000
20%
40,000 % Churn
ICPs
15% 30,000 10% 20,000
5%
10,000
-
0% Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13
Source: Electricity Authority June 2013 showing elevated churn due to registration of GLO-BUG as an independent retail entity
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
06