Quarterly Operational Update Three months ended 31 March 2015 QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
2
$
%
NATIONAL DEMAND for electricity up
6
PER MWh
ASX FY2017 FUTURES PRICE up since December
80
TAUPO STORAGE 80GWh higher than last year
COMMENTARY
DEMAND GROWTH AND REDUCED THERMAL CAPACITY; ASX FUTURES PRICE UP
During the quarter ended 31 March 2015, FY2017 ASX futures prices were up $6/MWh reflecting balance between supply and demand from an energy perspective. Electricity demand increased against the prior comparable period (pcp) for the third consecutive quarter, with national consumption up 2%, in part due to the increased electricity usage in irrigation and milk processing. The trend of reduced thermal capacity continued with Mighty River Power announcing the planned closure of its gas-fired station, Southdown, on 31 December 2015. Despite these trends, and declining national hydro storage, wholesale prices during the period were lower than Q3 last year due to additional renewable generation from Contact’s Te Mihi geothermal plant and Meridian Energy’s Mill Creek wind farm, the return to service of Genesis Energy’s Tekapo hydro following canal repairs in the pcp, and thermal generation from Huntly. LAKE TAUPO STORAGE 80GWh HIGHER THAN SAME TIME LAST YEAR
Following another quarter of low rainfall, Lake Taupo storage ended the period at 75% of average. However average rainfall since the end of March, combined with the decision to conserve water, leaves the Company well-positioned with storage 80GWh higher than last year and 84% of average (compared with 51% at the same time last year). By contrast, South Island storage dropped to 67% of average at the end of March. Mighty River Power’s hydro generation was 707GWh (down 126GWh on pcp), 21% below the Company’s Q3 average and a record low for the third quarter since the Company was formed in 1999. This was partly offset by higher gas-fired generation, principally reflecting 65GWh of generation from the Company’s virtual peaker contract. ADVANCED METER DEPLOYMENT
The Company’s metering business, Metrix, deployed 10,000 AMI advanced meters during the quarter, as mass deployment was completed in a number of networks. Metrix’s primary focus remains on systems development and integration to prepare for advanced metering service delivery and the deployment of advanced meters to Trustpower’s residential customers. Mighty River Power will release its financial results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2015 on 28 August 2015.
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
01
OPERATING STATISTICS
Three months ended 31 March 2015
Operating Information Electricity Sales FPVV sales to customers
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
111.21
968
112.67
1,077
115.56
3,376
116.25
3,659
Spot customer purchases 96.38
492
498
1,830
1,810
476
579
1,546
1,849
1,017
1,132
3,549
3,842
334
374
1,052
1,232
1,351
107.12
1,506
385
380
North Island Customers
351
344
South Island Customers
34
36
Electricity Customers (000’s)
Dual Fuel Customers
41
Contracts for Difference Buy CfD
440
387
Net Sell CfD2
231
376
Gas 3
Geothermal (equity accounted) Total
742
768
End User CfD
Geothermal (consolidated)
Volume (GWh) 511
392
Sell CfD
4
79.90
4,601
70.31
5,074
39 Volume (GWh)
Hydro
Nine months ended 31 March 2014
Volume (GWh)
FPVV purchases from market
Electricity Generation
Nine months ended 31 March 2015
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
FPVV sales to residential customers FPVV sales to business customers
Total NZEM Purchases
Three months ended 31 March 2014
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
1,285
1,737
2,508
2,522
1,231
1,552
1,223
785
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
96.27
707
111.16
834
81.69
2,463
75.06
2,682
105.94
6
152.52
6
83.71
389
83.40
94
88.95
638
97.62
625
74.89
1,875
66.47
1,843
89.54
58
99.89
57
75.18
175
68.70
161
93.50
1,497
105.34
1,522
79.02
4,902
71.70
4,780
94
1.03
LWAP/GWAP
1.02
1.01
0.98
Gas Purchases
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
Retail purchases5
9.20
0.15
9.85
0.13
9.21
0.77
9.02
0.73
Generation purchases
3.22
1.066
9.43
0.19
5.916
3.84
8.85
1.28
Carbon Emissions (‘000 tonnes CO2e)
2286
90
Metrix AMI Meters (‘000)
377
340
522
322
1.
VWAP is volume weighted average energy-only price sold to FPVV customers after lines, metering and fees
2.
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes in both Buy and Sell CfD volumes of 172GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2015 and 172GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2014 and of 525GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2015 and 500GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2014
3.
Includes Mighty River Power’s 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation
4.
Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share
5.
Prices exclude fixed transmission charges
6.
Includes the virtual peaker operation of 65GWh for the 3 months ended 31 March 2015 and 122GWh for the 9 months ended 31 March 2015
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
02
MARKET DATA
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH Mighty River Power Meridian Energy Contact Energy Genesis Energy TrustPower Other
16%
34%
24%
15%
7%
4%
Financial Year 2014
16%
33%
23%
16%
7%
5%
Financial Year 2015
Source: Electricity Authority Centralised Dataset, Transpower SCADA
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE NINE MONTHS ENDED 31 MARCH
Mighty River Power Other
17%
83%
15%
85%
Financial Year 2014
Financial Year 2015
Source: Mighty River Power Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
03
OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS Storage national average Storage FY2015 Storage FY2014 Rolling 12 month average Otahuhu price 4500
90
4000 85 3500 80
2500 75 2000 1500
$/MWh
GWh
3000
70
1000 65 500 0
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
60
TAUPO STORAGE Average since 1999 FY2014 FY2015 500 450 400 350
GWh
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
04
OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at 31 March 2014 As at 30 June 2014 As at 31 December 2014 As At 31 March 2015 90 80
$79.36
$81.02
$76.49
$83.46 $77.51
$75.04
$77.66
$82.75 $76.34
$75.13
$76.73
$68.74
70
$/MWh
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
FY15
FY16
FY17
Financial Year
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at 31 March 2014 As at 30 June 2014 As at 31 December 2014 As at 31 March 2015 90
$82.76
$81.13 $76.13
80 70
$71.55
$77.00
$74.65
$75.50
$74.68
$78.99 $74.19
$74.13
$63.50
$/MWh
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
FY15
FY16
FY17
Financial Year
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
05
NATIONAL CONSUMPTION Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter consumption National consumption 10,000
9,284
9,473
9,255
9,221
9,249
9,000 8,000 7,000
GWh
6,000 5,000
7,970
7,946
7,991
8,021
8,233
1,314
1,303
1,230
1,234
1,240
Q3 11
Q3 12
Q3 13
Q3 14
Q3 15
4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0
Financial Year Source: Transpower Information Exchange
NATIONAL CLIMATE SUMMARY
Financial Year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015
11.9° C
15.9° C
19.9° C
n/a
2014
12.3° C
16.7° C
18.9° C
14.8° C
2013
12.3° C
16.5° C
19.6° C
14.4° C
2012
11.5° C
16.6° C
18.9° C
14.0° C
Historical Average (since 1999)
11.9° C
16.1° C
19.4° C
14.2° C
Source: NIWA, Met Service
MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICP) NZ Market Churn Annual NZ Market Churn % 25%
40,000
20%
30,000
15%
20,000
10%
10,000
5%
ICPs
% Churn
50,000
0
Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15
0%
Source: Electricity Authority
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
06