Quarterly Operational Update Three months ended 30 June 2015 QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS
2.5
ELECTRICITY DEMAND up 2.5%, reflecting growth across all sectors
170 ANNUAL HYDRO GENERATION
down 170GWh compared to FY2014 – lowest in the Company’s history
FLAT
ENERGY PRICE for the quarter, slightly down year on year
COMMENTARY
TREND OF DEMAND GROWTH CONTINUES; ASX PRICES FALL
Demand for electricity increased 2.5% during the three months to 30 June 2015 compared with the same period last year. After adjusting for lower temperatures, demand for the quarter is estimated to have increased 1.8%, reflecting growth across all sectors (dairy processing 0.6%, rural 0.5%, urban 0.4%, industrial 0.1%, and South Island irrigation 0.01%). The trend of thermal capacity rationalisation continued with the confirmation from Genesis on 29 June that it would be permanently retiring a second 250MW Hunty coal/gas unit. Despite these trends, ASX futures prices were down by $18.25/MWh for FY2016 and $6.73/MWh for FY2017 since the end of March reflecting a recovery in national hydro storage during the fourth quarter of FY2015, decreased perceived dry-year risk priced into future years, and the on-going speculation about the level of future demand from Tiwai Point aluminium smelter. HYDRO UP 6% FOR THE PERIOD, BUT DOWN 170GWh FOR THE FULL YEAR
Hydro production was 864GWh for the period, up 6% on pcp, with inflows for the quarter being 112% of average – the first quarter in two years that there has been inflows at or above average into the Waikato catchment. Despite higher inflows for Q4, inflows for FY2015 were just 85% of average and hydro generation for the FY2015 year was the lowest in the Company’s history. Total generation for the quarter was up 147GWh on pcp, with geothermal generation increasing by 54GWh to 723GWh. This was mainly due to higher production from both Nga Awa Purua and Ngatamariki – with increased fuel availability at Ngatamariki from a new well commissioned in October 2014. The increase on pcp at Nga Awa Purua was due to the two outages in FY2014 associated with stabilising the plant ahead of a planned outage in July/August 2015 for the rotor replacement, that will increase production at the plant. Gas-fired generation from Southdown was up 44GWh on pcp, largely reflecting the Company’s virtual peaker contract, and the use of take-or-pay gas ahead of the station’s closure on 31 December 2015. ENERGY PRICES FLAT FOR THE QUARTER, SLIGHTLY DOWN YEAR ON YEAR
The average electricity sales price to residential and commercial customers for the quarter was $122.22/MWh, which was consistent with pcp. The price reduced slightly from $117.70/MWh in FY2014 to $117.21/MWh in FY2015, as the Company continues to absorb annual increases in line charges for the one third of its customers on two and three year fixed-price contracts. Mighty River Power will release its financial results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2015 on 28 August 2015 MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
01
OPERATING STATISTICS
Three months ended 30 June 2015
Operating Information Electricity Sales FPVV sales to customers
Three months ended 30 June 2014
Twelve months ended 30 June 2015
Twelve months ended 30 June 2014
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP1 ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
122.22
1,109
122.17
1,185
117.21
4,486
117.70
4,844
FPVV sales to residential customers FPVV sales to business customers FPVV purchases from market Spot customer purchases Total NZEM Purchases
65.11
667
639
2,497
2,449
442
546
1,989
2,395
1,168
1,244
4,717
5,086
335
340
1,387
1,572
1,503
73.80
1,584
76.26
6,104
71.16
6,658
382
382
382
382
North Island Customers
348
347
348
347
South Island Customers
34
35
34
35
40
40
40
40
Electricity Customers (000’s)
Dual Fuel Customers
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
Volume (GWh)
Buy CfD
412
493
1,697
2,230
Sell CfD
876
733
3,383
3,255
End User CfD
392
424
1,623
1,976
Net Sell CfD2
464
240
1,686
1,025
Contracts for Difference
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
VWAP ($/MWh)
Volume (GWh)
Hydro
66.76
864
74.21
815
77.82
3,327
74.86
3,497
Gas
89.08
75 6
94.43
31
84.58
4646
86.13
125
Geothermal (consolidated)3
58.70
670
67.33
609
70.63
2,545
66.68
2,451
Geothermal (equity accounted) 4
61.24
53
69.48
60
71.94
227
68.91
222
Total
64.34
1,661
71.67
1,515
75.30
6,563
71.69
6,295
Electricity Generation
1.01
LWAP/GWAP Gas Purchases
1.03
1.01
0.99
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
$/GJ
PJ
Retail purchases
9.25
0.31
8.82
0.29
9.22
1.08
8.96
1.02
Generation purchases
5.90
0.88
5.22
0.44
5.90
4.72
7.92
1.72
5
Carbon Emissions (‘000 tonnes CO2e)
125
Metrix AMI Meters (‘000)
388
6
6
104
647
427
342
388
324
1.
VWAP is volume weighted average energy only price sold to FPVV customers after lines, metering and fees
2.
Includes Virtual Asset Swap volumes in both Buy and Sell CfD volumes of 174GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2015 and 174GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2014 and of 699Wh for the twelve months ended 30 June 2015 and 674GWh for the twelve months ended 30 June 2014
3.
Includes Mighty River Power’s 65% share of Nga Awa Purua generation
4.
Tuaropaki Power Company (Mokai) equity share
5.
Prices exclude fixed transmission charges
6.
Includes the virtual peaker operation of 28GWh for the 3 months ended 30 June 2015 and 150GWh for the twelve months ended 30 June 2015
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
02
MARKET DATA
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY COMPANY FOR THE TWELVE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE Mighty River Power Meridian Energy Contact Energy Genesis Energy TrustPower Other
16%
33%
24%
7%
16%
4%
Financial Year 2014
16%
32%
23%
16%
8%
5%
Financial Year 2015
Source: Electricity Authority Centralised Dataset, Transpower SCADA
SHARE OF ELECTRICITY SALES (GWh) FOR THE TWELVE MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE
Mighty River Power Other
17%
83%
15%
85%
Financial Year 2014
Financial Year 2015
Source: Mighty River Power Purchases and Transpower SCADA
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
03
OTAHUHU WHOLESALE PRICE AND NATIONAL HYDRO STORAGE LEVELS Storage national average FY 2015 FY 2014 Rolling 12 month average OTA price 90
4500 4000
85 3500
GWh
2500 75 2000
$/MWh
80
3000
70
1500 1000
65 500 0
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
60
Jun
TAUPO STORAGE Average since 1999 FY 2015 FY 2014 500 450 400 350
GWh
300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
04
OTAHUHU ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at 30 June 2014 As at 31 December 2014 As at 31 March 2015 As at 30 June 2015 90 $76.49
80 70
$83.46
$81.02 $74.29
$75.04
$82.75
$77.66
$75.13
$68.74
$76.73
$76.03
$65.21
$/MWh
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
FY15
FY16
FY17
Financial Year
BENMORE ASX FUTURES SETTLEMENT PRICE As at 30 June 2014 As at 31 December 2014 As at 31 March 2015 As at 30 June 2015 90
$82.76 $76.13
80 70
$71.55 $63.50
$74.65
$74.19
$74.13 $69.33
$67.79 $59.00
60 $/MWh
$78.99
$75.50
50 40 30 20 10 0
FY15
FY16
FY17
Financial Year
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
05
NATIONAL CONSUMPTION Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter consumption National consumption 12,000 10,038
9,964
9,837
10,033
9,792
10,000
GWh
8,000 6,000
8,619
8,834
8,778
8,543
8,641
4,000 2,000 0
1,345
1,204
1,196
1,249
1,255
Q4 11
Q4 12
Q4 13
Q4 14
Q4 15
Financial Year Source: Transpower Information Exchange
NATIONAL CLIMATE SUMMARY
Financial Year
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2015
11.9° C
15.9° C
19.9° C
14.3° C
2014
12.3° C
16.7° C
18.9° C
14.8° C
2013
12.3° C
16.5° C
19.6° C
14.4° C
2012
11.5° C
16.6° C
18.9° C
14.0° C
Historical Average (since 1999)
11.9° C
16.1° C
19.4° C
14.2° C
Source: NIWA, Met Service
MONTHLY TOTAL CONSUMER RETAIL SWITCHING (ICPS)
25%
40,000
20%
30,000
15%
20,000
10%
10,000
5%
0
0%
Jan 15
Jul 14
Jan 14
Jul 13
Jan 13
Jul 12
Jan 12
Jul 11
Jan 11
Jul 10
Jan 10
Jul 09
Jan 09
Jul 08
Jan 08
Jul 07
ICPs
50,000
% Churn
NZ Market Churn Annual NZ Market Churn %
Source: Electricity Authority
MIGHTY RIVER POWER QUARTERLY OPERATIONAL UPDATE
06