Ag markets eyeing potential for a new weather pattern blowing in

By KRISTIN DANLEY-GREINER

The Midwest has entered its third year of a La Nina where winter temperatures are cooler than normal in the north and drought-like conditions persist.

But indications are strong that the weather may switch to ENSO (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation) neutral from March into early summer and eventually El Nino in mid- to late summer.

“Basically we’re transitioning from larger scale weather patterns to more localized thunderstorm-driven precipitation in May and June. We’re seeing for much of the Upper Midwest, elevated probabilities of cooler than average temps in March through May, and in Iowa a slightly elevated signal for wetter than normal conditions,” said Justin Glisan, state climatologist.

Farmers will want to strongly consider planting in April if possible, when the weather likely will transition to ENSO neutral, Glisan said.

The wetter winter experienced across most of Iowa that included rainfall in February and March has led to some runoff since soils are still carrying a frost depth of 6 to 10 inches, particularly across the northern three-fourths of the state.

“We’ve seen improvements of soil profiles across southern Iowa on the drought monitor. There are still severe drought conditions in the northwest corner of the state, which reflects the longer-term precipitation deficits and drier soil profiles going back three years,” Glisan said.

“We’ve seen a slower improvement in northwest Iowa. This has to be one of the top 10 wettest winters with a more active storm track in February.

“But the caveat is that there’s a frost level and snow pack on the ground, which helped insulate the soil and (did) not allow very deep infiltration.”

The weather outlook not only guides farmers when figuring out when to plant but also affects the markets.

Chad Hart, Iowa State

University ag economist, said there’s a 75-cent to $1 discount on old crop versus new crop and that’s a reflection of the potential for the weather pattern to change.

“We can argue that the gap we’re seeing now between an old and new crop could get larger if the long-term weather forecast plays out, because if La Nina disappears and we see more moisture move in, then the old adage in the market ‘rain makes grain’ will bring more potential bushels entering the marketplace this fall and likely continue to widen the gap between old and new crop,” Hart said.

“I could argue that farmers in past years, particularly on the eastern side of the state, have enjoyed a droughtstressed market because they were able to produce nearrecord to record crops, so it was the best of both worlds for eastern Iowa farmers — strong yields and high prices.

“But that came at the expense of the folks in western Iowa and the Great Plains. When you look across the bulk of crops in the U.S. the past two to three years, we’ve had some incredible revenues driven by the drought stress from Mother Nature,” he added.