Stocks Day Trading In Different Cycles - Transcript
1. Title Slide 2. Good day traders, this is Roger Scott from Market Geeks with another video tutorial for you today. Before I begin I want to remind you to subscribe to our video channel for trading videos and trading tips and don’t forget to visit Marketgeeks.com for your free trading report. 3. In this article I'm going to show you a great way to analyze markets. This method of analysis will help improve your stocks day trading technique as well as improve your overall trading results. One of the first things I teach traders is to look at the big picture and work down from there. When analyzing markets from a long term view you gain insight into past trading history and more importantly clues as to how the market may behave in the future. The first thing I usually pay attention to is the current conditions of the underlying market. In other words I want to see if the market is trending or range bound. Once I determine the current trading characteristics I immediately look back to see when the market exhibited the opposite characteristics. 4. One of the most important rules every trader should know is the longer markets trends and exhibits one way momentum the higher the odds that a range bound period is approaching. Conversely, the longer the market is trend less or range bound the higher the odds that strong directional momentum is approaching. There are exceptions to this rule but typically, when you see a long trend that lasts for several months you almost always see a trend less consolidation period immediately following the end of the trending cycle. Similarly, when markets are range bound for extended periods of time a strong breakout out accompanied by volatility and momentum typically follows this pattern. 5. Since markets are driven by people and people are emotionally driven this pattern tends to apply across stocks, futures, commodities, currencies and most other traded financial markets. Moreover, this pattern of alternating between range bound and momentum tends to apply to different time frames as well. Notice in this example how Hyatt Hotel stock alternates between the range bound and trending periods, once you start paying attention to this alternation pattern you will begin taking it into consideration when planning your entry and exit strategies. 6. In this example you can see how this pattern applies to intra-day price fluctuations as well. You always have to keep in mind that markets are driven by emotions. This will help you gain better perspective of how markets really work and what's really behind each move. Also keep in mind that there is some correlation between the length of time of each stage and the following stage. In other words if the range bound stage lasted 2 months the odds are the trending momentum stage or cycle will last a few months as well. 7. Once you become aware of alternative trading cycles you will begin to look and analyze markets a bit differently. Not only will you pay attention to what the market is
Stocks Day Trading In Different Cycles - Transcript
currently doing you will also start looking at the past few cycles to gain clues to help you determine how long the current cycle will last. For example, the U.S. Stock Market is just entered what appears to be range bound market conditions after trending for several months. You can see by looking at this chart that the stock market was previously trending strongly since September of last year. It appears that sometimes during the first week of April of this year, the Stock Market entered a trading range cycle. Since the previous cycle lasted several months, It would be reasonable to assume that this stage will last several months as well. Keep in mind that this analysis is done based on probabilities and not certainty so no one knows for sure what the future holds. However historically alternative cycle analysis has worked for over 100 years now and the odds are it will continue to work in the future just as well. 8. When you see that Markets are changing from one cycle to the next you should seriously reconsider how you trade that market and the type of strategies that are working in the current cycle; once the cycle changes the techniques that were used effectively and once that worked in the previous cycle will not work in the current cycle. Therefore you must adjust your trading style and learn to trade both trending and range bound trading cycles. 9. There are many clues the markets provide that that can alert us to changes in market cycles. For example, when the stock market changes from trending to range bound cycle, both volume and volatility decrease. When markets are beginning the trending cycle, the lows of the day usually occur in the mornings and the highs of the day typically occur towards the closing bell. 10. Thanks for joining us for today’s tutorial. Don’t forget to subscribe to our video channel for trading videos and trading tips. Please visit Marketgeeks.com for your free trading report, wishing you the best in your trading.
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