How Early Did Consumers Start Shopping?

According to the NRF survey, as of early July, 55% of consumers shopping for back-to-class said they’ve already started. This is similar to 2022, but up from 44% in 2019. While consumers report they have started shopping early, as of early July, 85% said they still have at least half of their shopping left to do.

Percentage of national consumers who say they have already started their back-to-school shopping.

According to the Michigan Retail Index survey, done in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch, the June Retail Index survey came in at 56.0, an increase over May’s 50.7. Half (50%) of Michigan retailers surveyed reported a sales increase over May. Thirty-four percent (34%) noted a decrease, and 16% reported no change. The 100-point Index provides a snapshot of the state’s overall retail industry. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity, the higher the number, the stronger the activity.

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Fifty-three percent (53%) of retailers predict their sales will continue to rise through September, and 13% said they expect their sales to decline. Thirty-four percent (34%) anticipate no change. That results in a 78.0 Index rating, a significant rise from last month’s prediction Index rating of 66.7.