Monmouth U. Known For Accurate Political Polls

By Mark Bator

WEST LONG BRANCH - One Central Jersey institution is renowned for its work in political polling and is so frequently cited, especially by television broadcasts during election coverage, that it has become synonymous with accuracy.

The Monmouth University Polling Institute has been doing reliable polling since 2005, when it was opened under the direction of Patrick Murray. In less than two decades under Murray’s direction, the Institute has become renowned for its precision.

“There’s no secret,” says Murray, candidly. “It’s the product of good training and trying to hold the highest standard. It’s a changing business, and we’ve become much more attuned to the fact that we are becoming more divided politically. Honestly, we just try to do our best with understanding the basics, stick to the basic premise of what good survey research is all about, and adapt to the changing environment.” shelter.

This attention to detail was never more evident than this past November, when four key races in two states captured much of the election coverage on national television.

On the eve of the elections, Monmouth Polling Institute reported that in the Pennsylvania Senate Race, 48 percent of those casting ballots were likely to vote for John Fetterman, while only 44 percent were likely to vote for Mehmet Oz. In the fi nal result, Fetterman garnered 51 percent of the vote, while Oz received 46 percent.

Local School Gifted Tree Donation For Outdoor Classroom

By Alyssa Riccardi

HOWELL – Howell Middle School

South has been chosen to receive a donation of fruit trees as a part of their creation of a “Food Forest.”

In collaboration with the Howell Green Team and Shade Tree Commission, the school has been select- ed to receive a donation of 30 fruit trees and 800 oak tree saplings from FirstEnergy Corporation. This is part of the company’s initiative to reduce our carbon footprint, promote the responsible use of natural resources and advance sustainable practices.

Members of the school community as well as FirstEnergy Corp volunteers will plant the fruit trees on May 5, creating Howell Township Middle School South’s Food Forest. The goal of the Food Forest is to expand the school’s outdoor (Tree - See Page 5)

Similarly, in the Pennsylvania Governor’s Race, the Institute’s update from November 3 projected that 39 percent would defi nitely or probably vote for Doug Mastriano, while 52 percent would probably or defi nitely vote for Josh Shapiro. In the end, election results showed Shapiro with 57 percent, while Mastriano managed to grab 42 percent. But while their accuracy in political forecasting is renowned, the Institute actively conducts all types of polls, and in the past has done work centering on commuting, the effects of Superstorm Sandy, and even the sociological effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this work being incredibly relevant by providing insight into the psyche of the population, the predictive nature of political polling is what captures the attention of the general public, as well as the media.

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“What we’re really doing,” Murray stresses, “and the contribution that we’re making both to our students and to the larger public are really about the other types of polling that we do that aren’t directly related to who’s going to win or lose an election.”

The polling that Murray is proud of may well have value to society, but they are seen as reflective of the current state of mind for the population. Conversely, something that is seen as “predictive” captures the imagination of the public, precisely because it deals with events that have not happened yet.

“I think one of the problems that we have is that we hold election polling up to a much higher standard and we expect it to be much more precise than it could possibly be,” explains Murray. “We expect it to be more precise than polling on almost any other topic even though there’s so much more error involved in election polling than there is in polling on any other type of issue. That’s because you’re asking polls to predict something, and polls aren’t designed to predict. Election polls basically violate the core principles of polling because you’re trying to get people to predict a number of different behaviors. One, whether they’re going to go out and vote at all, and two, who they’re going to vote for, which could change.”

Two of the more interesting races this past No- vember involved the gubernatorial and senate races in the state of Georgia. Here once again, the Institute’s staff correctly forecasted the winners, but it took a while to prove them right.

As of October 26, the projection from the Institute showed that candidate Stacey Abrams had ‘probably or definitely’ votes of 43 percent in the race for governor, while incumbent Brian Kemp had 55 percent. In the end, once again Murray’s team was incredibly accurate, as the election results gave Kemp the victory with 53 percent, while Abrams received 46 percent.

But no one could have predicted the photo finish involving the Georgia senate race. As recently as October 27, the Monmouth Polling Institute showed Raphael Warnock had a 49 percent to 44 percent edge over candidate Herschel Walker. However, the actual vote was too close to call on election night, with the count showing a 49.4 percent to 48.5 percent near-virtual tie. So, with less than a point difference, they moved to a runoff election, where Warnock received 51 percent to Walker’s 49 percent.

“When you say, ‘who are the people who vote on Election Day,’ which hasn’t happened yet, it requires a bit of a crystal ball to determine who that population is,” says Murray. “And so, pollsters come up with a whole series of likely voter models based on how often you voted in similar elections in the past, [and] how motivated or interested you are in the upcoming election. But these are imperfect gauges of what people are going to do. The only way to know who’s going to vote on Election Day is to wait till Election Day. So, you’re asking polls to do something that [is] very difficult for polls to do, and then you’re holding them to a higher level of precision.”

But while election season is the busy time of year for the Institute, it takes preparation to get to that stage. Murray’s staff consists of four full-time employees, but student assistance may range anywhere from four to 10 interns who have trained to do the work.

“We have both graduate students and undergraduate students who work for us and do internships with us every year from all fields,” explains Murray, “from political science to English to psychology to counseling to business, because we’re running a professional operation. And, there are pieces within any professional operation that need those kinds of areas of expertise.”

The accuracy may involve detailed metrics, but Murray insists that there’s no proprietary algorithm behind the Institute’s success. Instead, it’s the details that his team digs into to determine not just who someone is voting for, but why. Knowing the myriad of reasons behind a voter’s choice, the multitude of factors that may potentially cause individuals to cast the votes that they do, is the real secret of the Institute’s success.

“One of the things that we ask [involves] a lot of follow up questions about issues, about motivation, about what’s important to you in the political environment today as well as this specific election,” explains Murray, “and whether elections really reflect people’s underlying concerns.”

As long as the voting population takes interest in the issues of the day, and politicians are looking to be elected, Murray’s team will be there to do the work, boil down their analysis, and make the best projections possible for the upcoming election.

Shelter:

Continued From Page 1 construction of the current shelter through a one-time payment in the amount of $1.9 million due to the location of the original facility. The federal government does not play a current role in in the adult shelter operations, though the shelter does receive a small amount of federal HUD Emergency Solutions Grant dollars.

“Monmouth County provides $572,000 in annual funding toward shelter operations,” said Kiley, who serves as the Commissioner’s Liaison to the Department of Human Services. “There is another $55,000 in funding from various state entities and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).” County offi cials have contracted the management of the H-shaped structure, which spans 4500 square feet, to a non-profit organization known as the Affordable Housing Alliance (AHA). The shelter has the ability to adjust wings and accommodations based on the needs of the residents.

“We have the capacity to help 16 people at one time,” said Peter Boynton, AHA’s Director of Community Action Program & Emergency Housing. “We’re relatively full most of the time.”

The Monmouth County Shelter’s demographics often defy the stigma associated with homelessness. Many of the people who take up temporary residence work regular jobs and simply cannot fi nd affordable housing within their means.

A few individuals placed at the shelter were in their early 90s, while others were as young as 18. Families with underage children are ineligible for interim housing within the facility.

No walk-in applicants are accepted at the shelter, and its location is not advertised to protect the privacy of those who live there.

AHA provides staffi ng for the shelter on a 24/7 basis, with at least two staff members on site regularly. In addition, a third individual drives a van to escort residents to necessary appointments and places of employment.

“Once an individual goes through the intake process, they’re part of the shelter 24 hours a day,” said Boynton. “During traditional business hours, we encourage individuals to become actively involved in the community. If they’re not out working, they should be looking for housing.”

Staff members cook three meals daily for those who stay at the shelter. Breakfast is made in time for those ready to head off to work. They also have the opportunity to take along a packed lunch and return home to another nutritious meal for dinner. Healthy snack options are available throughout the day.

Placements within the shelter normally are authorized for 30 days, although extenuating circumstances may warrant extensions. So, for example, someone who fi nds an apartment that the landlord says isn’t available for another couple of weeks won’t have to worry about landing out on the street.

Sometimes the extension request requires a bit of a more creative solution. If there are a large number of people on a waiting list for the shelter, the goal is to protect against overall hardship. The county could opt for a motel placement or work with a local church for a short interim stay.

“I think what makes the model we have here in Monmouth County successful is that it’s a collaborative one,” shared Boynton. “The county has really done a great job leading the charge and has reached out to other agencies to make sure they’re able to provide the best services to all involved in the process.”

Monmouth County Social Services screens individuals as part of its homeless intake unit. They are located at 3000 Kozloski Road, Freehold, and can be reached by phone at (732) 431-6000. Applicants must be county residents for at least 30 days to qualify for a temporary housing referral.

“There are many ways where an individual can prove residency within the county,” Boynton explained. “For example, if they were homeless and going to a soup kitchen or getting help from a food pantry in Monmouth County, that would work.”

AHA acts as one of the agencies operating in the county to provide affordable housing in addition to running the homeless shelter. The non-profit organization owns and operates over 400 units in Monmouth County and works with utility and rental assistance programs.

Grant-funded programs may be available for homeless individuals in search of sta- ble housing. This could include security deposits and even rent for a few months in the future.

State law requires all counties to offer warming centers or shelter when there is extreme weather or colder than 32 degrees outside. Monmouth County officials have contracted with area motels to provide Code Blue assistance to those who are homeless or unsheltered. Those in need can dial 211 or contact their local police departments for referrals.

A report initiated by the federal government attempts to count the homeless population annually. HUD’s 2022 Continuum of Care Homeless Assistance Program’s report listed 8,752 homeless statewide. Monmouth County’s numbers alone rose by 40 percent from 2021 to 2022.

This letter is intended for all Howell residents and those in surrounding towns. Once again, we’re faced with a massive warehouse construction set in the middle of a country road. Because Howell still runs its planning board meetings via Zoom, and because some residents may not have social media or find it difficult to log on to Zoom meetings, many may not be aware of the newest proposal, so let me introduce you to Victory Road, in the southern portion of Howell and the newest area of attack.

It’s a one mile stretch that runs between Rt. 547 (Squankum Road) and Maxim Southard Road.

It still personifies the rural, country setting that originally caused it to be referred to as “living in the sticks.” Horses, goats, ducks, alpacas, chickens and countless family pets share the area with all types of wildlife such as

State Should Pay For Private School Busing

I applaud the Jackson Township Town Council and Assemblyman Alex Sauickie