2012 College Basketball Team Previews by Scott Miller

Power Rankings IF YOU’VE GROWN up hoops crazed, surrounded by cornfields and bluegrass, have we got a top 25 for you. Bloomington is abuzz with a legitimate shot at Indiana’s first national title in a quarter-century; Louisville’s adopted son, Peyton Siva, has more than just back-to-back Final Fours in mind; and as for Kentucky’s perpetually youthful Cats, the fine, sensible folks of Lexington ask only for another banner. Yes, according to our map, the road to Atlanta will run right down I-65. Of course, it wouldn’t be college basketball without a season of detours. So to help guide you, we consulted the experts: Our resident bracketologist,

1 stats courtesy of * 2011-12 KenPom.com and Synergy Sports Technology LLC.

CAPSULES BY IAN GORDON

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT Nov. 27 vs. North Carolina

Feb. 19 @ Michigan St.

March 10 @ Michigan

First time the programs have met since UNC won at Bloomington in ’04.

Statement game against the defending Big Ten champ. IU lost at East Lansing in ’11-12.

A grand finale if both teams live up to top-five hype. IU hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since ’08.

INDIANA

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

Projected Big Ten finish: 1st

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

THE CANDY-STRIPED PANTS, the Assembly Hall sellouts, the No. 1 preseason ranking—maybe these are your father’s Hoosiers. Led by POY front-runner Cody Zeller, IU returns all five starters from one of the nation’s most potent offenses, which put up a Big Ten–best 77.3 ppg. Tom Crean will surround his seven-foot sophomore with 6'9" inside-outside threat Christian Watford (12.6 ppg, 5.8 rpg), sharpshooter Jordan Hulls (49.3 3FG%) and high-energy guard Victor Oladipo. Depth is of no concern with a trio of ESPN 100 freshmen: PG Yogi Ferrell, SF Jeremy Hollowell and PF Hanner Mosquera-Perea, all Indiana natives. But the D needs work. Last season, IU allowed 77 or more points in six of its nine losses, including the 102-90 Sweet 16 shootout against eventual champ Kentucky. Without a stiffer defense, these Hoosiers will never repeat the wins of the fathers.

TERMS YOU’LL NEED TO KNOW FOR THIS STORY *

Joe Lunardi, picked each team’s March-worthy matchups and bravely predicted NCAA tourney seeds four months early; former Virginia Tech coach and current ESPN analyst Seth Greenberg used X’s and O’s to show that no one is unbeatable; and Dan Hanner, an economist by day and RealGM.com contributor by night, crunched each team’s next-level numbers to project offensive ratings for the players who should see the most minutes. Even after all that, just like the landscape in Indiana and Kentucky, this is one wide-open field.

OFFENSIVE RATING A measurement that factors a player’s points, assists and offensive rebounds per 100 possessions.

photograph by DYLAN COULTER

Maurice Creek, G

Big Ten avg. starting G

Big Ten avg. starting F/C

Jordan Hulls, G Victor Oladipo, G Christian Watford, F Cody Zeller, F

TEAM OFFENSIVE/ DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY Points scored/ allowed per 100 possessions.

100

Team offensive efficiency

110

124.9 93.8

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

ASSIST PERCENTAGE

BLOCK PERCENTAGE

STEAL PERCENTAGE

Teammate field goals on which a player assisted while on the floor.

Two-point field goal attempts a player (while on the floor) or team blocked.

Opponent possessions that end with a steal. For a player, it accounts only for his time on the floor.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN How to stop the Hoosiers offense: Arrive with Hulls on the catch, defend Watford early in the post and switch all ball screens when he is at the 4. Match Oladipo’s energy and keep him off the glass. Run the floor with Zeller and pressure and blitz all of his low-post catches. Contain Ferrell in transition. Be aggressive against the team’s half-court sets; IU had the fourth most efficient offense in D1. Force Indiana to make plays outside of its plays in the halfcourt.

TURNOVER PERCENTAGE A team’s or opponent’s possessions that end in a turnover.

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine

LOUISVILLE

Projected Big East finish: 1st

ANY DOUBTS ABOUT Rick Pitino’s most valuable Cards are dispelled with a look at what the horse racing aficionado named his two newest thoroughbreds: Gorgui and Siva. Pitino is betting on 6'11" Gorgui Dieng to anchor UL’s matchup zone and senior Peyton Siva to spur an O that ranked 13th in Big East play, scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions. Siva must feed junior SG Russ Smith, the top returning scorer (11.5 ppg), and emerging sophs Chane Behanan down low and Wayne Blackshear on the perimeter. And he has to change UL’s turnover-prone ways after the team coughed up 14.1 TOs per game. Should Siva do all that, Pitino’s team will have another inside track come March.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

Dec. 15 @ Memphis

Dec. 29 vs. Kentucky

Jan. 19 vs. Syracuse

Early rematch against a team UL put at the top of its résumé in ’11-12.

A win against bitter rival could erase bad taste from last season’s Final Four.

Pitino had beaten Jim Boeheim seven straight times before last season.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Peyton Siva, G

Big East avg. starting G

Big East avg. starting F/C

Wayne Blackshear, G/F

Team offensive efficiency

Chane Behanan, F

83.2

Luke Hancock, F Gorgui Dieng, C

109.9

100

110

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

How to stop the Cards offense Siva is the key. This is his third season as a starter, and he probes defenses better than any guard in the country. You have to keep him in front and make him a scorer, and don’t bite on penetration off of Dieng and Behanan; it will open up easy scoring opportunities. You can shrink the court by dropping off the perimeter because UL is weakest as a jump-shooting team, especially from beyond the arc, where it hit just 31.8% of threes last season.

CHRISTOPHER HANEWINCKEL/US PRESSWIRE

KENTUCKY

Projected SEC finish: 1st

NOW THAT JOHN CALIPARI has shed the can’t-win-thebig-one label, what’s to slow Kentucky down? Losing six guys to the NBA is tough, but this latest version of Cal’s Kids features the nation’s top recruit in 6'10" Nerlens Noel, 6'7" SF Alex Poythress (No. 13, ESPN 100) and 6'5" SG Archie Goodwin (No. 15), all projected first-round picks. With 6'10" pick-and-pop specialist Kyle Wiltjer (17.2 points per 40 minutes) back for his sophomore season (surprise!) and NC State transfer Ryan Harrow stepping in at PG, the Cats’ starting five can meet expectations. If you Kentucky fans are worried about a thin bench, relax. In last season’s title run, Cal gave subs just 21.6% of minutes, which ranked 323rd in the nation.

photograph by DYLAN COULTER

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT Nov. 9 vs. Maryland (Brooklyn)

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

Nov. 13 vs. Duke (Atlanta)

Feb. 12 @ Florida

There isn’t a tougher two-game start in college basketball.

A lot of Gators return for revenge after three losses to UK in ’11-12.

We’ll see if the young Cats look at home on a pro stage.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Archie Goodwin, G

SEC avg. starting G

SEC avg. starting F/C

Ryan Harrow, G

Team offensive efficiency

Nerlens Noel, F

90.8

Alex Poythress, F Kyle Wiltjer, F

119.8

100

110

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

How to beat the Cats defense Put Noel, Poythress and Wiltjer in ball-screen situations. You have to control the tempo of the game and make each possession count, not only on the scoreboard but on the clock. Wear down the Cats’ athleticism and keep them from taking advantage of transition. You must think about playing Kentucky like this: Carve out 10 four-minute games. And if you keep it close late, all the pressure will be on a team still trying to establish its identity.

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine

MICHIGAN

Projected Big Ten finish: 2nd

KANSAS

Projected Big 12 finish: 1st

NC STATE

Projected ACC finish: 1st

ALL EYES ARE on sophomore Trey Burke, who led the team with 14.8 ppg, 4.6 apg and 36.1 mpg but opted to bypass the draft. He headlines a Wolverines squad that will rely on serious minutes from a trio of ESPN 100 freshmen (SF Glenn Robinson III, PF Mitch McGary and SF Nik Stauskas) after losing Zack Novak and Maryland transfer Evan Smotrycz, who shot a combined 42.0% on threes last year. Which is why Burke’s No. 3 jersey won’t be what coach John Beilein has his eye on. It will be Tim Hardaway Jr.’s three-ball—the junior led the team in attempts but made just 15.1% in UM’s 10 losses.

LAST FALL, BILL SELF said he was as nervous as he’d ever been entering a season. Note to Self: not falling for that line again. KU will use a by-committee approach to replace Thomas Robinson and Tyshawn Taylor, two keys in last season’s title game run, as frosh PF Perry Ellis (No. 35, ESPN 100) and soph PG Naadir Tharpe can’t do it alone. But Self shouldn’t be skittish, because like last year’s No. 4 D (86.0 points per 100 possessions), these Hawks have athletic wings in 6'6" Travis Releford and 6'4" Elijah Johnson and seven-foot senior Jeff Withey, who led the nation with a 15.3% swat percentage.

AFTER THREE DECADES of reliving the Jim Valvano clip, Raleigh is finally the prime stop on Tobacco Road again. In just one season, Mark Gottfried turned the Wolfpack from an ACC also-ran into a Sweet 16 squad that barely missed the Elite Eight. Four starters return from that 60-57 loss to runner-up KU, joined by top-20 Raleigh recruit SG Rodney Purvis. Did we mention their preseason rank is higher than Duke’s and UNC’s for the first time since 1975? And if last season’s top scorers, F C.J. Leslie (14.7 ppg) and PG Lorenzo Brown (12.7 ppg), continue to mature, Gottfried could be the one running to find a hug.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

Nov. 12 vs. IUPUI

Nov. 27 vs. NC State

Feb. 2 @ Indiana

NIT Tip-Off opener. Reaching the title game is a must.

The Wolverines lost the last meeting in 2006.

Starts a brutal four-game stretch, three on the road.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 2

Two of ’11-12’s most efficient D’s.

Jan. 6 vs. Temple

March 9 @ Baylor

A win would be a springboard into the Big 12.

The Bears snuck up on KU in last year’s Big 12 tourney.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 2

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Big Ten avg. starting G Big Ten avg. starting F/C

Trey Burke, G

Nov. 13 vs. Michigan State (Atlanta)

Dec. 4 vs. Connecticut (NYC)

NCS must reach Puerto Rico final.

UConn has nothing to lose in Jimmy V.

Big 12 avg. starting G Big 12 avg. starting F/C

Rodney Purvis, G

Mitch McGary, F

Travis Releford, G

Richard Howell, F

Jordan Morgan, F

Perry Ellis, F

C.J. Leslie, F

Team offensive efficiency

110

116.1 90.5

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

Jeff Withey, C Team offensive efficiency

110

100

110.7 86.2

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

ACC avg. starting G ACC avg. starting F/C

Lorenzo Brown, G

Ben McLemore, G

100

Wolfpack haven’t won this matchup since 2007.

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Tim Hardaway Jr., G

Glenn Robinson III, F

Feb. 23 @ North Carolina

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 3

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Elijah Johnson, G

Nov. 15 vs. Penn State (San Juan)

Scott Wood, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

116.9 91.5

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

How to beat the Wolverines defense When the team goes to its bread and butter, a 1-3-1 zone, take care of the ball. Don’t pick up your dribble until you’ve created a passing lane, and always move the ball to a second side. Jordan Morgan can be late trying to hedge, so keep putting him in ball screens. Push hard in transition too, as UM is inconsistent at getting back.

How to stop the Jayhawks offense Stand up Ellis and Withey in the post—don’t allow them good position. Make it difficult for them to reverse the ball through the high post. You must take away their ball-screen game by pushing up on the ball screen and going under, denying their runs to the rim. Self’s high-low is predicated on creating lanes for the posts.

How to stop the Wolfpack offense Take away Scott Wood’s catch-and-shoot threes; NC State won all 10 games when he hit four or more last season. If Brown attempts to post up a smaller guard, stay home and make him a scorer. Put a body on Richard Howell and Leslie early on the weak-side duck-in, and look to take the charge when they work to the middle.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

FROM LEFT : TONY DING/BRUCE SCHWARTZMAN SPORTS; BOB DONNAN/US PRESSWIRE; SCOTT CUNNINGHAM/GETTY IMAGES

OHIO STATE

Projected Big Ten finish: 3rd

FORGET ABOUT FILLING Jared Sullinger’s shoes. How will Thad Matta replace that space-clearing All-America butt of his? While Sully and his derriere collect checks from the Celtics, junior PG Aaron Craft and junior SF Deshaun Thomas will go to work on planning a return trip to the Final Four. Craft creates havoc on defense and led the Big Ten in steals percentage (4.7%), while a varied O helped the 6'7" Thomas post a 122.1 rating, tops among Buckeyes. But Craft must attack the basket and finish more frequently, and Thomas needs to improve on the defensive boards, where Sullinger will be most missed. OSU ranked second in the country by allowing opponents to grab just 25.1% of their missed shots.

photographs by DYLAN COULTER

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT Nov. 9 vs. Marquette (Charleston, S.C.) A loss on the U.S.S. Yorktown would alter OSU’s outlook.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

Dec. 22 vs. Kansas

March 5 @ Indiana

A win in this Final Four rematch could eventually be worth a top seed.

The Hoosiers are much better than last season’s four-point loss in Bloomington.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 4

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Aaron Craft, G

Big Ten avg. starting G

Big Ten avg. starting F/C

Lenzelle Smith Jr., G

Team offensive efficiency

Evan Ravenel, F

87.6

LaQuinton Ross, F Deshaun Thomas, F

111.4

100

110

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

How to beat the OSU defense You have to be stronger with the ball against the Buckeyes than against any other team. They’re as physical a half-court D as there is in the country. So limit live-ball turnovers. Craft has great hands and anticipation and does a good job of pressuring the ball and getting deflections. If you’re loose with the ball, he’ll have it going the other way. Attack them in transition and in the first eight seconds of the shot clock, before they can set up their half-court defense.

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine

SYRACUSE

Projected Big East finish: 2nd

THE CUSE’S 2-3 ZONE terrorizes with its lane-closing length, which led to the top defensive efficiency (93.6 points per 100 possessions) and steals percentage (13.3%) in Big East play last season. Those openings might be even slimmer this year, when Jim Boeheim pairs 6'6" soph Michael Carter-Williams with 6'4" senior Brandon Triche to stifle opposing backcourts. Many see Carter-Williams—just 10.3 mpg stuck behind three guards last season—as the next Orange breakout (see: Wes Johnson and Dion Waiters). Before he starts having lottery dreams, though, he’ll have to prove that he can replace the output of departed seniors and top two scorers Kris Joseph and Waiters.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT Nov. 9 vs. San Diego State (Battle on the Midway) The Orange are tested early on the aircraft carrier.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

Jan. 9 @ Providence

March 9 @ Georgetown

Friars are looking for first win since ’09 but have enough to pull an early Big East upset.

Cuse eked out a three-point OT win last season. Sad if this rivalry ends.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 2

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Michael Carter-Williams, G

Big East avg. starting G

Big East avg. starting F/C

Brandon Triche, G

Team offensive efficiency

DaJuan Coleman, F

92.0

C.J. Fair, F James Southerland, F

116.7

100

110

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

How to beat the Cuse defense Attack the 2-3 by running cutters through and bringing a post behind. Do not go to the short corner or the baseline unless it’s for a shot. The Orange will look to trap all short-corner passes. Carter-Williams and Triche are so long and athletic at the top of the zone, and their forwards come up so high, it’s hard to make an easy pass. Get the ball to the middle to force DaJuan Coleman and Rakeem Christmas to defend the high post. You must offensive rebound.

CAL SPORT MEDIA/AP IMAGES

DUKE

Projected ACC finish: 2nd

UCLA

Projected Pac-12 finish: 1st

FLORIDA

Projected SEC finish: 2nd

DUKE HAS LOST two in a row to end a season just three times since ’85, making last season’s ACC tourney exit and subsequent first-game NCAA tourney loss that much more stunning. While many blamed one-and-done guard Austin Rivers, who took 21% of Duke’s shots but had the lowest offensive rating (104.7) of any starter, the Devils’ backsliding D (47 2FG% for opponents, 136th in D1) was the main culprit. To avoid a repeat, Coach K will rely on seniors Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee to make sure frosh Rasheed Sulaimon (No. 12, ESPN 100) fits in rather than sticks out.

UCLA’S FIRST SEASON in the new Pauley rides on two freshmen: 6'6" Shabazz Muhammad (No. 2, ESPN 100) and 6'9" Kyle Anderson (No. 5), though neither had been declared eligible at press time. Bruins fans can’t really trust UNC transfer PG Larry Drew II, who hasn’t surpassed a 94.1 offensive rating, or C Joshua Smith, who dropped in almost every major stat as a soph. So it may fall to twins David and Travis Wear, UCLA’s leading returning scorers, to bring back Pac-12 title hopes to Westwood. Because according to most of our pollsters, UCLA plummets out of the Top 25 without Muhammad and Anderson.

WITH FOUR DEEP-BOMBING guards last season, the Gators shot their way to the nation’s third most efficient offense, scoring a whopping 38.1% of their points on threes. This season, pass-first PG Scottie Wilbekin takes the reins, which could mean more touches for junior post Patric Young, whose summer regimen mimicked that of Florida alum Ryan Lochte (the weekly strongman workouts, at least). For UF to open up the floor for senior Kenny Boynton (15.9 ppg), though, Young will have to show better moves than the ones that netted him just 0.9 points per possession down low last season.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

Nov. 13 vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) Coach K last saw the Cats in ’01.

Jan. 12 @ NC State

March 9 @ North Carolina

Resurgent Pack haven’t beaten the Devils since 2010.

An 18-point loss in Durham began last postseason’s slide.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 4

Dec. 1 vs. San Diego State (Anaheim)

A win will erase last season’s 2–5 start.

Surprisingly, first meeting since ’91.

March 2 vs. Arizona Payback after being ousted from Pac-12 tourney.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 1

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders ACC avg. starting G ACC avg. starting F/C

Quinn Cook, G

Nov. 19 vs. Georgetown (Brooklyn)

Must-win opener in a rare meeting.

Pac-12 avg. starting G Pac-12 avg. starting F/C

Mike Rosario, G

Rasheed Sulaimon, G

Shabazz Muhammad, G/F

Scottie Wilbekin, G

Ryan Kelly, F

Travis Wear, F

Erik Murphy, F/C

Team offensive efficiency

110

116.9 91.6

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

Joshua Smith, C Team offensive efficiency

100

110

116.5 91.2

120

Gators build on thrilling OT win in Gainesville.

Must beat Cats at home after losing three in ’11-12.

130

Team defensive efficiency

SEC avg. starting G SEC avg. starting F/C

Kenny Boynton, G

Larry Drew II, G

100

Feb. 12 vs. Kentucky

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Seth Curry, G

Mason Plumlee, F

Dec. 15 @ Arizona

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 3

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Kyle Anderson, G

Nov. 9 vs. Georgetown (Jacksonville)

Patric Young, C Team offensive efficiency

100

110

120.0 94.0

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

How to stop the Blue Devils offense Switch all Kelly screens and take away the pick-andpop. Arrive on the catch on Curry—no room-and-rhythm threes. Make him put the ball on the floor, and stay down on his shot fake. All help should come off guards Quinn Cook and Tyler Thornton. Run the floor with Plumlee, and keep him off the glass.

How to stop the Bruins offense Pressure Drew, who was erratic at UNC. Take away Travis Wear’s pick-and-pop by pushing up and going under ball screens. Be physical with Anderson, and don’t double because he’s a terrific low-post passer. Keep Muhammad in front. He’s excellent going to the rim, so bigs should be ready to step up for a charge.

How to beat the Gators defense You have to attack Young. Make him defend every possession, whether it’s post-ups, off-ball screens or ball screens. He is the only legitimate post player that Billy Donovan has on his roster, so limiting Young’s time on the floor can be the difference between winning and losing when you play the Gators.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

FROM LEFT: FRANK FRANKLIN II/AP IMAGES; JAE C. HONG/AP IMAGES; CHRIS CARLSON/AP IMAGES

MICHIGAN STATE

Projected Big Ten finish: 4th

NOW THAT DRAYMOND GREEN has graduated, Tom Izzo is challenged with replacing the forward’s do-everything style of play. Stud freshman 2-guard Gary Harris (No. 11, ESPN 100) certainly will help. Bigs Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne, already adept on the offensive glass, will pick up the slack on the defensive end, where Green grabbed 28.5% of available boards. Offensive orchestration? PG Keith Appling tripled his assists per game from his freshman to sophomore year (in just eight more minutes per game). Make no mistake, though: The Spartans’ standout D (42.4 2FG% and 29.9 3FG%) is bigger than one player and will carry the momentum from 2011-12 into this season.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT Nov. 13 vs. Kansas (Atlanta) Izzo’s rematch with Bill Self from the 2009 Sweet 16.

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

Feb. 19 vs. Indiana

March 2 or 3 @ Michigan

State held Cody Zeller to just four points in East Lansing last season.

Sparty has lost three of the last four against the rival Wolverines.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 2

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Keith Appling, G

Big Ten avg. starting G

Big Ten avg. starting F/C

Branden Dawson, G

Team offensive efficiency

Gary Harris, G

89.1

Derrick Nix, C Adreian Payne, C

113.9

100

110

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

How to stop MSU’s offense Izzo brings a football mentality to basketball. You must be prepared for special situations, because Izzo looks to score out of timeouts, underneath out of bounds and side out of bounds. You also need to take the Spartans out of their speed game and have them make plays instead of score out of their plays in the halfcourt. You must cut Branden Dawson, Payne and Nix off the offensive glass— the second shot is often the Spartans’ best offense.

MIKE CARTER/US PRESSWIRE

NORTH CAROLINA

Projected ACC finish: 3rd

WITH JOHN HENSON and Tyler Zeller in the NBA—and few experienced options left down low—UNC won’t again run 16.6% of its plays through the post (a Carolina high under Roy Williams). Instead, the Tar Heels will rely on a five-man backcourt rotation, including frosh PG Marcus Paige (No. 22, ESPN 100). If soph James Michael McAdoo can up his production from 0.9 points per possession and Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald return healthy, this could be the nation’s deepest collection of guards. It would take a repeat of last season’s catastrophic injuries—McDonald, Strickland and Kendall Marshall all missed significant time—to keep this team out of the ACC title mix.

photographs by DYLA N COULTER

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

Nov. 27 @ Indiana

Dec. 29 vs. UNLV

Feb. 23 vs. NC State

Two of last season’s most explosive offenses square off in Bloomington.

UNC can’t let Mike Moser go off for 16 points and 18 boards like in last year’s loss.

It’ll be tough for UNC to sweep the Wolfpack for the sixth straight regular season.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 3

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Reggie Bullock, G

ACC avg. starting G

ACC avg. starting F/C

P.J. Hairston, G

Team offensive efficiency

Dexter Strickland, G

91.5

Brice Johnson, F James Michael McAdoo, F

115.8

100

110

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

How to stop UNC’s offense Get back. Defensive transition is key because the Tar Heels run the floor as consistently and hard as any team in the country. They averaged 72.2 possessions per game last year, 10th most in D1. Paige has the potential to be special in Williams’ fast-paced attack. So you must get the Heels into a half-court game. Limit sophomore P.J. Hairston’s scoring opportunities and be physical with McAdoo off the ball. You have to bump all cutters in their motion.

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine

ARIZONA

Projected Pac-12 finish: 2nd

MEMPHIS

Projected C-USA finish: 1st

CREIGHTON

Projected MVC finish: 1st

A YEAR AFTER Josiah Turner (last year’s No. 3 prep PG) washed out with two suspensions and an aborted Euro stint, Sean Miller has to hope no player in Zona’s No. 3 overall class gets derailed. Yes, a trio of freshmen, C Kaleb Tarczewski (No. 4, ESPN 100) and PFs Grant Jerrett (No. 9) and Brandon Ashley (No. 16), are the focus in Tucson, but given Turner’s defection, PG Mark Lyons (15.1 ppg), a Xavier transfer, could be the difference maker. If Lyons is to prop up an NIT team, the senior needs to mind his trigger (team-high 20.8% of shots last year) and feed the freshmen and senior F Solomon Hill (12.9 ppg).

TO RID THE Tigers of Calipari’s ghost, SGs Chris Crawford and Joe Jackson and 6'9" F Tarik Black—all members of Josh Pastner’s first class—must finally live up to their blue-chip billing. And Black needs to stay on the floor. Last season, his 119.5 offensive rating led Memphis starters, but Black topped 30 minutes in only 15 games because of foul trouble, getting whistled four or more times in 45.7% of games. Black will get a lift in the frontcourt, as 6'9", 246-pound frosh Shaq Goodwin (No. 31, ESPN 100) debuts and soph Adonis Thomas reprises Chris Douglas-Roberts’ role as a high-volume scorer.

WHAT WILL JUNIOR Doug McDermott do to follow up the only first-team All-America season in Creighton history? How about becoming the first Bluejay to win POY? It’s not as outlandish as you think: He is the nation’s most versatile (63.2 2FG%, 48.6 3FG%, 80 FT%) and efficient scorer, posting a 123.5 offensive rating, the highest of any returning player who was used on at least 28% of possessions. Creighton had the nation’s fifth most efficient offense and advanced to the NCAA tourney’s third round. But it needs to shore up a D that finished 178th in efficiency for a shot at the Sweet 16.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

Dec. 8 @ Clemson

Dec. 15 vs. Florida

Jan. 24 vs. UCLA

Nov. 22 vs. VCU (Bahamas)

Dec. 15 vs. Louisville

Jan. 19 vs. Harvard

The Tigers’ No. 27 scoring D will test Lyons & Co.

UF’s bombers face the Cats’ No. 3 three-point D.

Zona has won its last four at home against the Bruins.

Can Tigers avoid upset like last year to Murray State?

These Cards put up a season-high 95 in the ’11-12 win.

An RPI booster until the Crimson’s scandal hit.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 6

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 4

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Pac-12 avg. starting G Pac-12 avg. starting F/C

Nick Johnson, G

Big Ten win raises seeding in a hurry.

C-USA avg. starting G C-USA avg. starting F/C

Jahenns Manigat, G

Solomon Hill, F

Joe Jackson, G

Doug McDermott, F

Grant Jerrett, F

Adonis Thomas, G/F

Ethan Wragge, F

Team offensive efficiency

110

117.2 92.6

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

Tarik Black, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

113.1 92.6

120

The Hawks handed the Jays an early loss in ’11-12.

The teams split last season, each a three-point win.

130

Team defensive efficiency

MVC avg. starting G MVC avg. starting F/C

Grant Gibbs, G

Chris Crawford, G

100

Feb. 13 @ Northern Iowa

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Mark Lyons, G

Kaleb Tarczewski, C

Dec. 1 vs. Saint Joseph’s

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 5

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Antonio Barton, G

Nov. 23 vs. Wisconsin (Las Vegas)

Gregory Echenique, C Team offensive efficiency

100

110

117.8 96.5

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

How to beat the Wildcats defense Due to the team’s gap-defense philosophy, the Cats will at times overhelp. Perimeter players must be shot-ready for kickout threes. They are active, so be strong with the ball and patient in running your sets. Attack Tarczewski and Jerrett with drag ball screens and in transition; both are difficult for young post players to adjust to.

How to beat the Tigers defense Jackson, Crawford and Antonio Barton are ultraaggressive and have a tendency to overrun passing lanes. So use ball fakes and shot fakes and look to back-cut to keep them honest. Due to excellent depth, Pastner will extend his defense. Play with good spacing and read advantage or disadvantage while attacking the press.

How to stop the Bluejays offense The team wants to be in the 90s. So you want to control the tempo, limit the number of possessions and get it out of a rhythm. Make it hard for McDermott to catch in a scoring area and come with early help. Be aggressive on guards Grant Gibbs and Austin Chatman while taking away angles from Gregory Echenique in the post.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

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MISSOURI

Projected SEC finish: 3rd

VETERAN GUARDS PHIL PRESSEY and Michael Dixon Jr. return as the top scorers from a team that finished No. 1 in the country in offensive efficiency, putting up 125.4 points per 100 possessions. And the addition of UConn transfer Alex Oriakhi, a power forward, gives the Tigers a boost on the defensive end. Mizzou struggled to block shots last season (253rd in swat percentage) and allowed opponents to hit 47.9% of twos. Oriakhi won’t be asked to do much on offense—Pepperdine transfer Keion Bell (18.9 ppg) can pick up the slack—but his post D will be instrumental in the Tigers’ SEC transition.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

GONZAGA

Projected WCC finish: 1st

SURE, STEVE NASH comparisons are unfair. But if sophomore Canadian PG Kevin Pangos comes close to surpassing his output from last season (47.9 2FG%, 40.1 3FG%, 85.1 FT%), they wont stop any time soon. Pangos’ backcourt mate Gary Bell Jr. shot even better, including 47.7% from three, and senior PF Elias Harris (13.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg) is a double-double threat. Add in Polish seven-footer Przemek Karnowski—a favorite of scouts since the 2010 U17 worlds—and the Zags may be even better than in ’11-12, when they were in the top 34 in offensive and defensive efficiency.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

UNLV

Projected MWC finish: 1st

DAVE RICE MASHED the accelerator in his first season at the helm for UNLV. More than 20% of Rebels possessions came in transition, up from 13.5% under Lon Kruger in ’10-11. But with a lengthy front line, Rice might ease off the gas. Pitt transfer Khem Birch (eligible in December), a 6'9" power forward, and 6'8" frosh Anthony Bennett (No. 7, ESPN 100) bring the promise of versatility to complement MWC POY hopeful Mike Moser (14.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg). To help spread the floor, frosh Katin Reinhardt (No. 47) must live up to his deep-threat rep and help replace UNLV’s Chace Stanback (45.5 3FG%).

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

Dec. 28 @ UCLA

Jan. 19 @ Florida

Feb. 23 @ Kentucky

Dec. 28 vs. Baylor

Jan. 19 @ Butler

Feb. 28 @ BYU

Dec. 9 @ California

Dec. 29 @ North Carolina

Feb. 16 vs. San Diego State

Stanford and the Bruins are the Tigers’ early tests.

Two of the top three offenses from last season face off.

Oriakhi gets an SEC welcome against Nerlens Noel.

Pangos and Bears’ Brady Heslip duke it out from deep.

Zags cruised in Spokane last season 71-55.

In ’11-12, Zags lost by 10 in Provo; WCC’s new rivalry.

The Lobos’ weak nonleague slate could be costly.

Heels look for revenge after last year’s 90-80 loss.

Rebs eked past top MWC rival in Vegas last season.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 6

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 5

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders SEC avg. starting G SEC avg. starting F/C

Keion Bell, G

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 5

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders WCC avg. starting G WCC avg. starting F/C

Gary Bell Jr., G

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Michael Dixon Jr., G

Kevin Pangos, G

Anthony Marshall, G

Phil Pressey, G

David Stockton, G

Anthony Bennett, F

Laurence Bowers, F

Elias Harris, F

Mike Moser, F

Alex Oriakhi, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

119.6 97.7

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

Sam Dower, C Team offensive efficiency

100

110

115.3 93.7

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

MWC avg. starting G MWC avg. starting F/C

Justin Hawkins, G

Quintrell Thomas, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

111.4 90.6

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

How to stop the Tigers offense Don’t help on Laurence Bowers and Oriakhi. The key to containing Mizzou is to control the perimeter players. Stay home on post catches, which will take away long closeouts. Mizzou does a great job of spacing the floor. Keep Dixon and Pressey in front. String out ball screens and stay as long as needed to make them give it up.

How to beat the Zags defense Put Harris, Sam Dower, Karnowski and Kelly Olynyk in ball screens and attack them off those screens. Limit your live-ball turnovers and dictate your shots. The Zags’ contain philosophy will allow you to run your offense (209th in defensive TO% last year). Good execution will result in room-and-rhythm scoring opportunities.

How to beat the Rebels defense This is a high-risk, high-reward team in the halfcourt that jumps passing lanes, which creates live-ball turnovers and easy baskets. Basically a West Coast version of Memphis—freaky athletic, great length but at times impatient. You have to play with good spacing and use ball fakes and shot fakes to create scoring chances.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

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SAN DIEGO STATE

Projected MWC finish: 2nd

BAYLOR

Projected Big 12 finish: 2nd

NOTRE DAME

Projected Big East finish: 3rd

TWO SEASONS AGO, Jamaal Franklin did the unthinkable: He ignored his coach and thrived because of it. Steve Fisher wanted the überathlete from LA to redshirt; Franklin opted not to. He played only 8.1 minutes per game but laid the groundwork for his MWC POY season in 2011-12. The 6'5" Franklin’s work in the lane is essential to SDSU’s success—Franklin averaged 19.2 ppg and 9.4 rpg in MWC play—but just as important is senior Chase Tapley’s ability to stretch the floor (15.8 ppg, 43.3 3FG%). Between the two of them, Fisher has one of the best backcourts in the country.

ISAIAH AUSTIN, STEP right up! In what has become a yearly occurrence (Perry Jones III, Quincy Miller), Scott Drew signed another lanky hybrid big man. Austin (No. 3, ESPN 100) is the highest-ranked player among that trio, and now that Jones and Miller are in the NBA, the seven-footer will be needed to replace some of their scoring, along with Quincy Acy’s rebounding. Austin should be a great half-court partner for Pierre Jackson, who finished in the top 20 in assist rate (37.3% of possessions) last season. Plus, he’ll see limited double-teams thanks to deadeye Canadian Brady Heslip (45.5 3FG%).

THE IRISH HAVE missed only one NCAA tourney in the past six years. And with all five starters back from last season, including 6'9" senior Jack Cooley, another tourney berth is expected in South Bend. Cooley’s inside play—and his 1.28 points per possession—is reminiscent of Luke Harangody’s banging. And the backcourt—starring Jerian Grant (12.3 ppg, 5 apg) and Eric Atkins (12.1 ppg, 4.1 apg)—is the most underrated in the Big East. Mike Brey’s teams don’t commit many turnovers (top 30 in TO% since ’03), which helps offset a poor offensive rebounding rate that ranked 15th in the Big East.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

Nov. 9 vs. Syracuse (U.S.S. Midway) An early statement game for SDSU.

Dec. 1 vs. UCLA (Anaheim)

Feb. 26 @ New Mexico

Dec. 1 @ Kentucky

Dec. 28 @ Gonzaga

March 9 vs. Kansas

Nov. 29 vs. Kentucky

Jan. 7 @ Cincinnati

Feb. 4 @ Syracuse

The first matchup between these teams since 1991.

SDSU has won five of its past seven in Albuquerque.

Bears can only gain in this Elite Eight rematch.

Zags’ only home loss was to Michigan St. in 2011-12.

Drew is 2–10 against KU in nine seasons at Baylor.

No. 1 Cuse lost at ND in ’11-12. UK had better beware.

The Irish’s first true road trip comes 14 games into season.

Brey has won only once in the Carrier Dome since ’04.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 7

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 4

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders MWC avg. starting G MWC avg. starting F/C

Jamaal Franklin, G

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 8

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Big 12 avg. starting G Big 12 avg. starting F/C

Brady Heslip, G

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

James Rahon, G

Pierre Jackson, G

Chase Tapley, G

Ricardo Gathers, F

Scott Martin, G

Cory Jefferson, F

Pat Connaughton, G/F

Xavier Thames, G Winston Shepard, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

109.5 92.9

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

Isaiah Austin, C Team offensive efficiency

Big East avg. starting G Big East avg. starting F/C

Eric Atkins, G Jerian Grant, G

100

110

115.1 95.4

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

Jack Cooley, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

113.1 93.2

120

Team defensive efficiency

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

How to stop the Aztecs offense Keep the team’s guards in front. Tapley is great at catch-and-shoot threes. He spreads out the D, which creates driving lanes for Franklin. Help early on Franklin without fouling; he shot six FTs per game last year. Due to an attacking mindset, he is at times an unwilling passer. Last year, he had 47 assists and 95 turnovers.

How to stop the Bears offense The game starts with the guards. To compete with Baylor, you must contain Jackson and take away Heslip’s room-and-rhythm threes. If you allow Jackson to get to the rim, it gives Baylor’s athletes a chance on the boards. So stay in front and go under all ball screens. Be physical with Austin and cut Ricardo Gathers off the glass.

How to beat the Irish defense Attack the defense off the dribble; it struggles with defending straight-line drives. Put Cooley and Garrick Sherman in ball screens and force the posts to run the floor. Be prepared for Brey to extend the 2-3 zone and give multiple defensive looks. Attack the offensive glass against the zone.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

130

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WISCONSIN

Projected Big Ten finish: 5th

BO RYAN IS full of folksy sayings, and one of his gems is: “I underpromise and overdeliver.” No one embodied that mantra more than former PG Jordan Taylor, he of the understated game and outrageous assist-to-turnover ratio. A collective will try to replace Taylor’s production. Junior Josh Gasser (45.2 3FG% last season) takes the PG spot, with scoring support from Jared Berggren (10.5 ppg) and Ryan Evans (11 ppg). But 6'7" freshman Sam Dekker (No. 17, ESPN 100) will draw the most eyeballs early. And it will be Ryan’s job to see that Dekker delivers on all of his promise.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

CINCINNATI

Projected Big East finish: 4th

WHEN YOU CAN’T shoot, it’s usually hard to win. But in coach Mick Cronin’s six years, Cincy has never ranked above 168th in FG%—and yet it has won 26 games in consecutive seasons. What gives? Cronin’s players— led this season by Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright—don’t get outworked on the glass (top 50 in offensive rebound percentage since 2009), don’t make costly mistakes (15th in D1 in TO% last season) and don’t give up freebies (ninth in FT attempts per FG attempt). Of course, making a few more shots wouldn’t hurt their cause come March.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

SAINT LOUIS

Projected A-10 finish: 1st

JUST WHEN IT seemed as if Rick Majerus had Saint Louis primed for a program-defining season, heart problems forced him to sit out the season. Now interim head coach Jim Crews leads the Billikens down the road Majerus has been building since 2007-08. Four starters are back— including leading scorers Kwamain Mitchell (12.4 ppg) and Cody Ellis (10.1 ppg)—after the program’s first tourney win since 1998. Mitchell will miss at least November with a broken foot, giving Dwayne Evans a chance to improve his production (7.9 ppg). At only 6'5", Evans was 25th nationally in defensive rebound percentage.

JOE LUNARDI’S GAMES WITH BRACKET IMPACT

Nov. 14 @ Florida

Dec. 8 @ Marquette

Jan. 15 @ Indiana

Dec. 19 vs. Xavier

Dec. 27 vs. New Mexico

Jan. 21 @ Syracuse

Nov. 28 @ Washington

Jan. 10 vs. Massachusetts

Feb. 22 @ Butler

UF’s prolific offense faces the Badgers’ tough D.

The road team has won this game the past two years.

UW held Cody Zeller to 2 of 7 in regular season.

Cooler heads and hotter shooters will prevail.

End of a mediocre nonconference slate.

Cronin has beaten Jim Boeheim twice in seven tries.

SLU’s nonleague games won’t help the tourney seed.

Last year’s loss to UMass preceded six straight W’s.

Great matchup between two of the best D’s in D1.

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 3

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 6

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Big Ten avg. starting G Big Ten avg. starting F/C

Ben Brust, G

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 8

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders Big East avg. starting G Big East avg. starting F/C

JaQuon Parker, G

PROJECTED OFFENSIVE RATINGS Top five minutes leaders

Josh Gasser, G

Cashmere Wright, G

Kwamain Mitchell, G

Ryan Evans, G/F

Sean Kilpatrick, G/F

Cody Ellis, F

Mike Bruesewitz, F

Justin Jackson, F

Dwayne Evans, F

Jared Berggren, F/C Team offensive efficiency

100

110

104.0 86.1

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

David Nyarsuk, C Team offensive efficiency

100

110

110.0 91.0

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

A-10 avg. starting G A-10 avg. starting F/C

Mike McCall Jr., G

Rob Loe, F Team offensive efficiency

100

110

107.2 89.3

120

130

Team defensive efficiency

SETH GREENBERG’S GAME PLAN

How to stop the Badgers offense The Badgers aren’t going to beat themselves—only nine TOs per game last season. Discipline is the key to being successful against Ryan’s swing offense. All five players have to be prepared to defend all five positions. You must finish each possession with a solid blockout, because Mike Bruesewitz and Berggren are active running to the glass.

How to beat the Bearcats defense Kilpatrick, Wright and JaQuon Parker make up one of the country’s best defensive backcourts. So scoring easy baskets against the Cats in transition is a must. Put Justin Jackson in ball screens and pull him from the rim. He averaged almost two blocks last season, which enabled guards to ramp up pressure on the perimeter.

How to beat the Billikens defense Look to attack in transition before the team sets up its half-court D. Make Rob Loe and Ellis run the floor. With Mitchell out early, attack the Billikens’ perimeter players off the dribble. Good ball movement, player movement and shot selection are imperative. Exploit their switches, especially by attacking their bigs.

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

FROM LEFT: MATT YORK/AP IMAGES; KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IMAGES; SCOTT R OVAK/US PRESSWIRE

Team name Team rank

26 New Mexico

MWC: 3rd

112.6 91.7

Projected offensive efficiency Projected conference finish 26 New Mexico

MWC: 3rd

27 Tennessee

SEC: 4th

28 Pittsburgh

Big East: 5th 29 Texas

Big 12: 3rd 30 Marquette

Big East: 6th

31 Minnesota

112.6 91.7 111.8 91.4 117.4 96.1 112.5 92.2 111.4 91.5

53 Oklahoma

Projected defensive efficiency

THE NEXT 320

* New Orleans and Northern Kentucky not ranked because neither is considered a full D1 member this season 80 College of Charleston

107 Valparaiso

81 Washington State

55 West Virginia 56 Mississippi

Big 12: 7th

54 Illinois

Big Ten: 7th Big 12: 8th SEC: 7th

57 Wyoming

MWC: 4th

108.7 94.4 107.1 93.3

109.5 95.9 101.3 89.1

134 South Alabama

161 Kent State

108 Connecticut

135 Indiana State

162 Utah

82 Central Florida

109 Utah State

136 St. Francis (N.Y.)

163 UNC-Wilmington

190 Cal Poly

83 Oregon State

110 Tennessee State

137 Delaware

164 Southern Miss

191 UAB

84 Manhattan

111 Maryland

138 Southern Illinois

165 Portland

Southern: 2nd Pac-12: 8th

105.1 95.9 108.1 98.7

C-USA: 2nd

Pac-12: 9th MAAC: 1st

107.2 98.0

108.4 99.1

105.8 96.9

Horizon: 2nd

Big East: 14th WAC: 1st OVC: 3rd ACC: 9th

106.0 99.3 103.4 97.0

106.7 100.1 104.4 98.2 104.5 98.3

Sun Belt: 3rd MVC: 6th NEC: 3rd CAA: 5th

MVC: 7th

104.8 102.1 99.1 96.7

101.5 99.1

104.9 102.4 101.5 99.2

MAC: 3rd

Pac-12: 12th CAA: 8th

C-USA: 7th WCC: 6th

101.6 101.9 103.1 103.4 101.9 102.3 100.5 101.0 103.2 103.9

188 Morehead State

215 Arkansas Little Rock

242 Cal State Bakersfield

269 Wofford

189 TCU

216 Oakland

243 Mount St. Mary’s

270 North Carolina A&T

297 Pepperdine

217 Gardner-Webb

244 Eastern Kentucky

271 Bethune-Cookman

298 North Carolina Central

325 SIU-Edwardsville

218 Western Michigan

245 Utah Valley

272 Illinois Chicago

299 Idaho State

326 Central Arkansas

192 Louisiana Lafayette

219 Stony Brook

246 Sam Houston State

273 Boston University

300 Lafayette

327 Norfolk State

247 Chattanooga

274 Tulsa

301 Navy

OVC: 5th

Big 12: 10th Big West: 5th C-USA: 10th Sun Belt: 6th

95.1 98.2 97.2 100.4

100.8 104.1 98.1 101.4 94.6 97.9

Sun Belt: 8th Summit: 4th

Big South: 2nd MAC: 7th

93.0 98.9

102.8 109.4 95.3 101.7

97.2 103.9

America East: 3rd 94.1 100.7

Independent: 1st 99.6 108.6 NEC: 7th

95.9 104.8

OVC: 7th

99.8 109.3

Great West: 1st Southland: 3rd

95.5 104.5 92.0 100.9

Southern: 9th MEAC: 4th MEAC: 5th

Horizon: 9th

94.2 105.5 93.4 104.7 99.8 111.9

95.3 107.0

America East: 5th 89.5 100.5

296 Hartford

America East: 8th 90.4 104.8 WCC: 9th

MEAC: 6th

Big Sky: 9th Patriot: 6th

89.7 104.1 89.7 104.3

94.9 110.8 95.4 111.6

323 Florida A&M

MEAC: 9th

92.3 112.0

324 Central Michigan

MAC: 12th OVC: 11th

Southland: 10th MEAC: 10th

89.1 108.3

89.9 109.3

90.6 110.8 87.5 107.1

85 South Carolina

112 Texas A&M

139 George Mason

166 Youngstown State

193 Florida Atlantic

220 Army

86 Fresno State

113 South Carolina Upstate

140 Montana

167 Wake Forest

194 Bowling Green

221 Southern Utah

248 Eastern Michigan

275 San Francisco

302 Samford

60 Robert Morris

87 Detroit

114 Nevada

141 Cleveland State

168 Drake

195 North Dakota

222 UC Davis

249 SE Louisiana

276 Jackson State

303 Lamar

34 Kansas State

61 Bucknell

88 Penn State

142 Idaho

169 Loyola (Md.)

196 Cornell

223 Fordham

250 Campbell

277 Northwestern State

304 Howard

35 Iowa State

62 Virginia

170 Stephen F. Austin

197 Savannah State

224 Florida International

251 Yale

278 Rice

305 Nebraska Omaha

332 Fairleigh Dickinson

144 LIU Brooklyn

171 Boston College

198 Western Illinois

225 IPFW

252 Charleston Southern

279 Brown

306 Southern

333 Colgate

145 Oral Roberts

172 Missouri State

199 Marist

226 Mississippi State

253 VMI

280 South Dakota

307 Bryant

Big Ten: 6th

32 Georgetown

Big East: 7th

33 Alabama

SEC: 5th

Big 12: 4th Big 12: 5th

36 Stanford

Pac-12: 3rd

37 Miami (Fla.)

ACC: 4th

38 Arkansas

SEC: 6th

39 Butler

A-10: 2nd

111.9 92.6 109.4 90.9 108.0 89.9 108.6 90.4 113.5 94.5 111.4 92.8 113.6 94.7 116.1 97.1 109.5 91.7

58 Villanova

112.2 97.3

There’s nothing like the feeling of your team being ranked, right? The Mag enlisted economist and RealGM.com contributor Dan Hanner to arrange all the teams outside our top 25 from the least worst to, well, Grambling.* Hanner projected tempo-free stats for every player, using college stats and recruiting evaluations while also accounting for coaching. The rankings flowed from the strength of each team’s projected lineup. The model used to construct our list, as well as more player projections, can be found in the 2012-13 edition of College Basketball Prospectus. Because there’s nothing like the feeling of being right either.

Big East: 9th 59 BYU

WCC: 3rd NEC: 1st

Patriot: 1st ACC: 6th

63 Drexel

CAA: 1st

64 Akron

MAC: 2nd

65 Iowa

Big Ten: 8th 66 Colorado

Pac-12: 6th

106.9 94.2 104.8 92.4 109.8 97.0 110.5 97.8 103.5 91.8 105.9 94.0 108.1 96.2 110.8 98.6 106.1 94.6

SEC: 9th

MWC: 7th

Horizon: 1st Big Ten: 10th

105.8 96.8 107.5 98.4

109.9 100.6 104.1 95.3

SEC: 11th

Atlantic Sun: 1st 103.7 97.7 MWC: 8th

115 Green Bay

Horizon: 3rd

89 Vermont

116 Georgia

90 Clemson

117 Xavier

America East: 1st 104.0 95.3 ACC: 8th

101.9 93.5

101.7 95.7

SEC: 12th A-10: 9th

106.5 100.3 105.0 99.2 101.1 95.7 102.1 96.6

CAA: 6th

Big Sky: 1st

Horizon: 4th WAC: 2nd

143 Air Force

MWC: 9th NEC: 4th

98.5 96.4

102.2 100.1 99.5 97.6

103.9 102.2 102.3 101.2 107.2 106.0

Horizon: 5th ACC: 11th MVC: 8th

MAAC: 5th

Southland: 2nd ACC: 12th

102.9 103.6 106.6 107.4 99.3 100.1 101.7 102.7 95.6 96.7

100.5 102.0

Sun Belt: 7th MAC: 6th

Big Sky: 4th Ivy: 4th

MEAC: 1st

Summit: 3rd

173 Houston

93 North Texas

120 Old Dominion

147 Quinnipiac

174 SMU

121 St. Bonaventure

148 George Washington

175 Jacksonville State

202 Hofstra

122 Providence

149 James Madison

176 Sacred Heart

203 Loyola Chicago

177 Toledo

Sun Belt: 1st

CAA: 2nd

100.6 95.5

WCC: 4th NEC: 5th

102.9 102.0

109.9 108.9 102.3 101.5

MVC: 9th

C-USA: 8th C-USA: 9th

97.3

98.8

103.0 104.6 95.9

97.5

MAAC: 6th

231 Texas San Antonio

258 Cal State Northridge

285 Pennsylvania

312 Hampton

339 Chicago State

205 Cal State Fullerton

232 UNC-Greensboro

259 Western Carolina

286 Saint Peter’s

313 Portland State

340 Alabama A&M

233 Lipscomb

260 Furman

287 Troy

314 Presbyterian

341 Mississippi Valley State

128 Georgia Tech

155 Harvard

182 UC Irvine

129 Evansville

156 Niagara

Pac-12: 5th

105.6 90.3

Big Ten: 9th

103.3 93.1

C-USA: 4th

MVC: 4th

99.3 95.9

Sun Belt: 4th

99.3 99.1

96.8

96.7

Big West: 3rd SEC: 13th

101.8 104.0 94.2

96.4

47 Northern Iowa

74 Belmont

48 Oklahoma State

75 Massachusetts

102 UTEP

49 VCU

76 St. John’s

103 Northwestern

130 Arizona State

157 Fairfield

131 Texas Tech

158 Denver

159 Louisiana Tech

186 Stetson

160 San Diego

187 Northern Colorado

MVC: 2nd

Big 12: 6th A-10: 5th

112.3 96.1 109.2 93.9 106.3 91.7

OVC: 2nd

A-10: 6th

Big East: 12th

110.0 99.6 106.2 96.2 107.2 97.1

101 Auburn

104.7 97.4

WAC: 4th

SEC: 10th

C-USA: 5th

Big Ten: 11th

104.3 97.1 101.7 94.7 108.4 101.0

ACC: 10th MVC: 5th

Pac-12: 11th

50 Murray State

77 South Dakota State

104 Wagner

51 Saint Mary’s

78 Boise State

105 Long Beach State

132 Columbia

106 DePaul

133 Iona

OVC: 1st

WCC: 2nd

52 Davidson

Southern: 1st

107.8 93.8 113.2 98.1

112.5 97.4

Summit: 1st MWC: 6th

79 Lehigh

Patriot: 2nd

ESPN The Magazine 11/12/2012

112.9 102.2 110.7 100.6 108.5 98.7

NEC: 2nd

Big West: 1st

Big East: 13th

101.8 94.9 105.3 98.5 111.1 103.9

Big 12: 9th Ivy: 2nd

MAAC: 2nd

100.5 97.2

105.2 102.0 103.7 100.7

103.5 100.4 104.6 101.6 105.4 102.5

Ivy: 3rd

MAAC: 3rd

MAAC: 4th WAC: 5th WAC: 6th

WCC: 5th

101.0 100.9 105.1 105.0 94.8 94.8 100.1 100.3 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.6

CAA: 9th

Horizon: 7th

96.9 101.0 96.0 100.1 98.5 102.8 99.3 103.7

Atlantic Sun: 5th 99.9 104.4 Big West: 6th MVC: 10th

Patriot: 3rd

208 Duquesne

A-10: 13th

102.3 107.5 96.3 101.2 97.1 102.1 96.9 102.0

WAC: 8th

Big West: 8th A-10: 15th

Big South: 3rd WAC: 9th

Southern: 4th

98.3 106.2 94.7 102.4 90.0 97.5 97.4 105.5 96.5 104.8

97.1 105.5

Atlantic Sun: 6th 97.6 106.0

A-10: 16th

97.4 107.7

America East: 4th 94.1 104.0 Big Sky: 6th

Summit: 6th Big West: 9th

Southern: 6th Southern: 7th

98.3 108.6 95.9 106.0 97.6 108.2

94.8 105.1 93.5 103.8

America East: 6th 91.5 103.7 NEC: 8th

Big Sky: 7th Patriot: 5th Ivy: 8th

MAAC: 10th

Sun Belt: 10th

93.8 106.3 96.7 109.6

92.8 105.3 89.7 102.0 89.3 101.5 97.3 110.6

Southern: 12th Big South: 8th

Great West: 2nd SWAC: 4th MEAC: 8th

Big Sky: 10th

Big South: 9th

91.9 108.7

87.8 104.1 94.3 112.0 87.5 104.0 86.6 102.9 96.2 114.5 90.8 108.7

316 Northern Arizona

343 Eastern Illinois

317 Binghamton

344 Coppin State 345 Grambling

MAC: 9th

93.9 102.1

MAAC: 9th

96.7 107.5

Big Sky: 8th

95.3 109.2

Big Sky: 11th

93.9 113.1

291 Central Connecticut

318 Winthrop

184 Texas Southern

211 SE Missouri State

238 San Jose State

265 Morgan State

292 The Citadel

319 High Point

185 Elon

212 Canisius

239 Liberty

266 Austin Peay

293 UC Riverside

320 Texas Pan American

240 East Tennessee State

267 IUPUI

294 Texas A&M Corpus Christi

321 Northern Illinois

241 Siena

268 Dartmouth

295 Tennessee Martin

322 NJIT

SWAC: 1st

Southern: 3rd

99.6 102.3

100.6 103.3

Atlantic Sun: 4th 102.2 105.2 Big Sky: 3rd

105.1 108.4

OVC: 6th

MAAC: 7th

102.8 108.6 104.3 110.5

213 Albany

America East: 2nd 101.4 107.7 214 Seattle

WAC: 7th

96.4 102.4

82.0 108.0

289 Sacramento State

96.1 115.2

264 Tennessee Tech

99.6 105.2

SWAC: 9th

87.5 113.6

262 Rider

Southland: 9th

237 William & Mary

Big South: 1st

SWAC: 8th

85.9 111.0

235 Ball State

93.7 106.6

210 UNC-Asheville

99.3 101.9

Great West: 5th

88.4 113.3

342 Longwood

Southland: 6th

183 Arkansas State

Sun Belt: 5th

MEAC: 12th

85.2 107.5

315 Nicholls State

Atlantic Sun: 8th 94.8 105.3

290 UMBC

93.3 98.5

CAA: 11th

83.9 105.5

288 McNeese State

95.0 103.2

263 Georgia Southern

Horizon: 8th

SWAC: 7th

86.4 107.8

261 Jacksonville

MAC: 8th

236 Delaware State

99.8 102.2

SWAC: 6th

234 Miami (Ohio)

209 Wright State

Big West: 4th

87.1 108.6

204 North Florida

181 Vanderbilt

100 Marshall

102.8 98.9

SWAC: 5th

338 South Carolina State

154 Western Kentucky

73 Purdue

C-USA: 6th

102.6 104.7

334 Arkansas Pine Bluff

311 Prairie View A&M

127 Wichita State

46 USC

107.0 99.3

Big Sky: 2nd

99.5

92.5 115.2

284 Holy Cross

207 American

Pac-12: 10th

98.7 98.6

97.6

96.7 114.5

Patriot: 8th

87.9 109.4

257 UMKC

180 Pacific

103.9 93.4

WAC: 3rd

MAC: 5th

NEC: 10th

91.5 108.2

NEC: 12th

87.4 108.5

230 Coastal Carolina

153 Texas Arlington

SEC: 8th

105.3 101.2

101.1 100.8

98.5 111.4

SWAC: 3rd

MEAC: 11th

337 Towson

126 Tulane

109.9 93.9

CAA: 4th

Big Ten: 12th

Summit: 8th

97.6 110.1

98.7 116.4

331 Maryland Eastern Shore

310 Houston Baptist

99 Oregon

Big East: 8th

105.6 97.8

99.4 95.1

101.5 112.1

Ivy: 7th

Summit: 9th

88.9 109.9

283 Eastern Washington

72 LSU

45 Rutgers

Sun Belt: 2nd

CAA: 3rd

Big South: 7th

98.9 109.2

92.3 104.1

90.3 106.5

NEC: 11th

256 Montana State

206 Bradley

103.8 93.4

110.3 101.8

Big South: 6th

C-USA: 12th

MEAC: 7th

93.2 114.6

330 Saint Francis (Pa.)

229 Charlotte

Horizon: 6th

179 Weber State

Big East: 11th

A-10: 8th

94.8 104.5

93.4 105.3

85.2 100.0

Sun Belt: 11th

336 Alabama State

152 New Mexico State

108.2 92.2

110.3 99.1

Ivy: 5th

Southland: 5th

Southland: 8th

329 Louisiana Monroe

309 Radford

125 Northeastern

MAC: 1st

MWC: 5th

178 Buffalo

101.6 103.5

98.4 108.4

94.2 106.1

96.7 113.3

Atlantic Sun: 9th 91.7 112.7

282 Monmouth

98 Middle Tennessee

44 Ohio

110.7 93.7

MAC: 4th

103.9 105.8

99.5

Big South: 5th

SWAC: 2nd

Southern: 11th

328 Kennesaw State

255 Maine

71 South Florida

Pac-12: 4th

102.7 102.4

NEC: 6th

100.5 102.3

92.3

92.6 102.0

93.3 104.8

93.0 108.9

228 UC Santa Barbara

151 Nebraska

Big West: 2nd

104.6 104.1

OVC: 4th

SEC: 14th

98.5 106.0

Southland: 4th

WCC: 8th

Patriot: 7th

201 Milwaukee

124 Georgia State

Atlantic Sun: 3rd 108.1 103.0

CAA: 7th

101.2 100.5

Summit: 5th

94.0 101.1

89.0 97.7

90.0 101.0

335 Alcorn State

97 Richmond

109.0 100.5

107.4 102.2

A-10: 12th

Sun Belt: 9th

98.9 106.3

MAC: 10th

C-USA: 11th

308 Appalachian State

70 Colorado State

43 California

C-USA: 3rd

Big East: 15th

106.2 100.9

A-10: 14th

104.2 111.9

95.8 105.1

281 New Hampshire

150 Hawaii

102.8 92.2

104.1 95.9

A-10: 11th

Big West: 7th

97.0 104.0

Southern: 5th

254 Rhode Island

123 Florida Gulf Coast

Big East: 10th

Ivy: 1st

107.4 98.9

Big Sky: 5th

95.9 102.7

227 Texas State

WCC: 7th

96 East Carolina

111.6 94.1

A-10: 7th

99.2 103.2

Patriot: 4th

200 Loyola Marymount

69 Seton Hall

A-10: 4th

107.4 96.3

94 Dayton

105.2 96.8

Atlantic Sun: 2nd 105.0 99.6

Southland: 1st

42 Temple

ACC: 7th

95.8 99.5

146 Santa Clara

105.9 97.4

105.3 99.8

95 Princeton

110.3 92.6

93.6 97.2

119 Mercer

MVC: 3rd

A-10: 10th

68 Virginia Tech

ACC: 5th

106.8 95.6

95.6 99.3

92 Illinois State

110.5 101.3

41 Florida State

Pac-12: 7th

98.2 101.9

118 La Salle

Summit: 2nd

67 Washington

113.9 95.5

97.8 101.5

91 North Dakota State

40 Saint Joseph’s

A-10: 3rd

102.0 105.6

MEAC: 2nd CAA: 10th

WAC: 10th

Big South: 4th

100.1 108.9 97.9 106.5 97.2 105.8 97.8 106.5

Atlantic Sun: 7th 93.5 101.9 MAAC: 8th

95.1 103.7

Southern: 8th OVC: 8th

MEAC: 3rd OVC: 9th

Summit: 7th Ivy: 6th

93.5 104.0 96.6 107.5

93.4 104.2 96.0 107.3 99.4 111.2 91.7 102.6

America East: 7th 96.4 110.7 NEC: 9th

Southern: 10th Big West: 10th

Southland: 7th OVC: 10th

91.5 105.2 95.7 110.1 89.7 103.5

89.5 103.4

96.4 111.4

America East: 9th 94.3 113.6 Big South: 10th Big South: 11th Great West: 3rd MAC: 11th

Great West: 4th

87.0 104.9

Big South: 12th OVC: 12th

MEAC: 13th

SWAC: 10th

90.5 119.3 86.2 114.3 84.4 112.8 78.4 118.7

91.2 109.9 90.1 108.9 88.1 106.7

89.4 108.3

For more on our preseason Power Rankings, go to ESPN.com and ESPN Insider.

11/12/2012 ESPN The Magazine