THE D E B AT E ISSUE
Quick, someone trademark “the Greatest One.” Gretzky’s nickname is about to change.
Will the U.S. men’s team win the World Cup in the next 50 years?
YES NO WHO IS THE BEST PLAYER IN NHL HISTORY?
FUTURE SHOCK Should the U.S. men’s team continue its upward trajectory in winning percentage, it could expect to win the World Cup as early as 2042. WINNING% IN INTERNATIONAL MATCHES 0.75
WAYNE GRETZKY
0.7
0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0.45
USA
0.4
France, 1998 Average World Cup– winning team Brazil, 2002
0.35
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058
0.3
YEAR
Until the 1970s, the U.S. soccer team was not so good. Since then, its rise has been inexorable, as the chart shows. The cumulative winning percentage of the national team eclipsed .500 for the first time in 2006, during a spectacular decade that saw the squad reach the World Cup quarterfinals in 2002. But when will the U.S. actually lift the trophy? To answer that, we let the numbers do the kicking. Since 1970, the cumulative winning percentage of the eventual World Cup winner going into the
IS ANCHORING A PUTTER CHEATING? YES
114
ESPN The Magazine 06/25/2012
NO
tournament has averaged .669; the highest was .728 (Brazil, 2002), and the lowest was .625 (France, 1998). If we extrapolate the remarkably consistent progression of Team USA, it should take another 30 years (2042) for the team to break the minimum Cup threshold—and another decade to achieve even odds. America’s soccer moment is coming. Although, look out—the Chinese probably won’t be far behind. —Stefan Szymanski, co-author of Soccernomics
Rule 14-1 of the Rules of Golf is simple, yet ripe for interpretation. The ball must be “fairly struck,” but what constitutes fairness? Scooping the ball out of the bunker instead of hitting it? According to golf’s governing bodies, that’s cheating. Pushing your three-footer into the hole instead of striking it cleanly? Also cheating. Stabilizing your elongated putter against your chest instead of putting with a normal-length club? Not
cheating … for now. The USGA and R&A are currently and controversially examining Rule 14-1 in relation to belly putters. There is clear precedent to outlaw them: In 1968, the USGA and R&A banned Sam Snead’s famous croquet-style putting stance— creating a new rule, 16-1e, to do so. At the time, then-USGA executive director Joe Dey said that putting in such a manner, with one foot on each side of the target line and Snead’s
With apologies to Gordie “Mr. Hockey” Howe and “Super Mario” Lemieux, there is only one Great One. As the stats show, Wayne Gretzky deserves the title of the NHL’s best player. Using goals versus threshold, a metric that assigns value to a player, in goals, above what a replacement player would contribute, we put the big three to the test. GVT enables us to see a player’s effect on goal differential while adjusting for the strength of the league. It’s a fine tool to compare players from different eras. Gretzky demolishes his rivals in the metric, beating Howe 42.6 to 36.7 when you average each player’s best three years, and crushing Lemieux 40.8 to 26.8 over a top five-year run. In total GVT and playoff GVT, Gretzky (520.4/112.7) far surpasses Howe (465.9/54.5) and Lemieux (327.3/56.9). Lemieux does nip Gretzky in GVT per 82 games, 29.3 to 28.7, but that’s about the only edge No. 99 doesn’t own. His greatness can’t be denied. —Neil Greenberg
body facing the hole, began to make golf “look like another game.” By that criteria, the answer is clear. Kids are learning to putt with clubs the length of hockey sticks, and tour pros are relying on elongated putters to steady otherwise shaky strokes (see: Scott, Adam). More than 40 years after banning Snead’s stroke simply because it looked funky, the USGA and R&A have no choice but to follow their own example. —Scott T. Miller
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