5XQQLQJ ZLWK WKH SDFN STEELERS
THE MAG’S PLAYOFF PICKS
CHARGERS
STEELERS
Lawsuits, bounties, suspensions—who needs ’em? Come Sept. 5, the Cowboys visit the Giants and will help us forget a regrettable offseason in the first of the NFL’s 256 throwdowns. But why wait? Spoiler alert: We asked the folks at AccuScore to simulate all of the games, then we turned those results—down to the last decimal point—into a projected playoff bracket. And guess what the computers spit out: a season for the ages. The Packers are going 19–0, beating the Broncos in the Super Bowl. The Rams are going 0–16, beating the 1–15 Browns and Jaguars in the Matt Barkley Bowl. As for the Cowboys at the Giants? The G-Men win 24.4-23.4! If you don’t trust the geeks, fine. You’ll also get insight on every team from a former GM, a draft guru, a football scientist, two ex-scouts and three Vegas wiseguys. So crack open the playbook and study up. The next offseason is closer than you think.
PACKERS
PATRIOTS PATRIOTS
AFC
EAGLES
PACKERS
BRONCOS
NFC
PACKERS
BRONCOS BRONCOS
EAGLES
COWBOYS
49ERS
PACKERS
RAVENS
SAINTS
49ERS
Super Bowl XLVII
BRONCOS
This bracket? All us. No computers, no talking heads. Go ahead and disagree. (Sorry, can’t use that line about East Coast bias.)
TEXANS
ESPN.COM POWER RANKINGS
Clockwise, from top right: Justin Smith, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Elvis Dumervil, Rob Gronkowski.
116
ESPN The Magazine 10/31/2011
photograph by P HOTOG RAPHE R TEE K AY TEEK AYUT ALIST QUE QUI ODIA PERNATUSDAM REM QUIA NONSEQ UOD ET Q UE N UM VEN DEL ID EBITIOR UMQUA E SITATE
49ERS
BEARS
KC JOYNER’S GLOSSARY
Green Bay
New Orleans
Tennessee
St. Louis
New England
Atlanta
N.Y. Jets
Cleveland
N.Y. Giants
Detroit
Buffalo
Jacksonville
San Francisco
Dallas
Carolina
Minnesota
Baltimore
Denver
Arizona
Indianapolis
Houston
Cincinnati
Tampa Bay
Philadelphia
San Diego
Washington
Pittsburgh
Kansas City
Oakland
Chicago
Seattle
Miami
For the latest Power Rankings, check ESPN.com every Tuesday throughout the season, starting Sept. 4.
illustration by CHU CK ANDERSON PHOTO REFERENCE, CLOCK WISE FROM TOP RIGHT: GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES; PAU L SPINELLI/AP IMAGES; DAV ID STLUK A/A P IMAGES; GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES; STEPH AN SAVOI A/AP IM AGES
VYPA (vertical yards per attempt): productivity on throws of 11+ yards SVYPA (stretch-vertical ypa): productivity on throws of 20+ yards GBYPA (good-blocking ypa): ypa on plays with good blocking GBR (good-blocking rate): percentage of time the offense gives a ball carrier quality blocking
GBP (good-blocking productivity): uses GBR and GBYPA to define a team’s overall performance running the ball BDR (bad-decision rate): the rate at which a QB makes an error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the D Pythagorean winning percentage: the estimate of a team’s winning percentage given its points scored and points allowed
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
105
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
2011 record: – Lost in Super Bowl
Playoffs? The better question: Super Bowl?
BEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends No other team in the league can match this group for productivity. The Pats can spread the field with multireceiver sets or show bunch looks that use motion. Either way, they excel at finding one-on-one situations for Welker and TEs Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who are masters at adjusting routes on sight alone. WORST UNIT Defensive backs The secondary regressed in 2011, giving up too many big pass plays. While the Pats prefer more man looks to allow for more blitzes, they have to mix in some zone to prevent those downfield strikes. Corners Devin McCourty and Ras-I Dowling and safeties Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory lack elite talent, so they’ll have to stick to the schemes. —GARY HORTON
106
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Completion percentage 67.1% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,939 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 37 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 11 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
We ek 11 11 vs. /15 MI A 11/11 @ NE
11/11 vs. BU F
Week 1 0
INSIDER’S VIEW
Week 1 0
We ek 11 11 / 1 vs. 8 IN D
- 9/1 vs. 6 AR I
We ek 2
18.9 vertical ypa in 2011, second highest in NFL
Average starting QB
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER DE Jake Bequette You could make the case that Bequette was the best pass rusher in the SEC in 2011 (third in FBS in sacks per game). And to think, New England was able to draft him 90th overall out of Arkansas. At 6'4", 265 pounds, he’s productive and versatile, capable of playing both DE and OLB for Bill Belichick, who loves to mix and match.
ROBERT E. KLEIN/AP IMAGES
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
His ypa dropped from 7.5 in the first half of 2011 to 6.2 in the second half. If he truly played the final nine games with cracked ribs, as reported, his numbers could be surprisingly good in 2012.
The on-field linchpin of a defensive overhaul, Williams will be charged with providing stability to a unit that allowed the third-most points in 2011. At 6'6", 292 pounds, with a sub-4.8 40, he demands multiple blockers and will combine with Anderson in new D-coordinator Dave Wannstedt’s 4-3 to form what should be the top D-line in the AFC East.
Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2011 stats: 62% comp., 3,832 yards, 24 TDs, 23 INTs
MARIO WILLIAMS, DE
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: The Pats can’t run the ball. Reality: The Patriots were just 20th in rushing yards and tied for 21st in ypc among NFL teams last season, but they tied for the second-best mark in good-blocking rate, showing that the line can open holes, and the upgrade at running back from BenJarvus Green-Ellis (6.0 good-blocking ypa, third to last among backs) to Stevan Ridley (8.5 good-blocking ypa) should pay dividends.
Few teams had a better offseason than the Bills. They kept their explosive offensive talent and added some on D. After a 1–7 road record in ’11, their nondivisional away games include the Browns, Cards and Colts. And the AFC East isn’t too taxing. They’ll win at least eight. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH over/under wins
2012 PROJECTION Brady
Chance of making playoffs
Posted at least one sack in 32 of his last 66 games
2012 PROJECTION
Has 12 multiple sack games since 2007
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S TAKE BEST UNIT Defensive line DEs Williams and Mark Anderson, both acquired as free agents, have tremendous first-step quickness and provide a great pass rush off the edge for a D that posted just 29 sacks in 2011 (27th in the NFL). Their presence will free up DTs Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams—quick, one-gap penetrators who can’t be single-blocked. WORST UNIT Linebackers The starters are average and don’t make enough impact plays. Weakside LB Nick Barnett and strongside LB Kirk Morrison are on the wrong side of 30, and MLB Kelvin Sheppard made 70 tackles but didn’t create a single turnover as a rookie last season. Even if the front four create havoc as expected, it’s questionable if the guys behind them can finish plays. —G.H.
BUFFALO BILLS
Week 9
169 targets in 2011, second most in NFL
Chance of winning division
- 11/4 @ H OU
WES WELKER, WR
The trickiest part is figuring out how many passes he’ll throw. Last year, Brady had 611 attempts, but in 2010 he threw only 492. We’re projecting 587 attempts, with fewer yards but better accuracy.
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
Signing WR Brandon Lloyd A lethal passing attack will get even more potent. Lloyd, a former Ram, provides a downfield threat that was missing in 2011. He’s not a burner, but his athleticism and Brady’s accuracy will force teams to move a safety over the top. And that will help get Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez open underneath. As if they needed more help.
o)
–
17 Week
Tom Brady’s 2011 stats: 65.6% comp., 5,235 yards, 39 TDs, 12 INTs
2012 projected record
- 12/30 vs. NYJ
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Week 9
LVH over/under wins
BYE
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
17 Week
The Pats are considered the NFL’s best team (third in our book) and perceived to have the easiest schedule (yep) and an improved D (nope). They are the only team since 2002 to have 13-plus wins in consecutive seasons (twice). But don’t bet on it again. —PredictionMachine.com
VEGAS VIBE
- 12/30 vs. MIA
- 9/9 @ TEN
We ek 15 12 / v (in s. S 16 To E ro A nt
8 ek We
- 25 11/ D IN @
12/9 vs. STL
10 vs / .
E BY
Chance of making playoffs
- 12/2 vs. JAX
We ek 7
Chance of winning division
(in
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
2 k1
- 10/ 1 @A 4 RI
16 ek We - 23 12/ IA M @
–
- 9/23 LE C @
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ SF
21 N TE
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 SF
8 ek We - 0/28 1 STL @London)
- 22 11/ YJ N @
12/10 vs. HO U
10 vs / .
k ee W
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2 k1
- 12/2 @ MIA
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 12/2 AX J @
Week 1
Week 1 4
13 Week
4
/30 9 E vs. N
- 9/23 L BA @
21 J NY
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/ @ S 14 EA
9/1 vs. 6 KC
k ee W
10/7 vs. DEN
k Wee
We ek 2
-
/30 9 UF @B
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 @ NYJ
4
PREVIEW
AFC East
Week 5 k Wee
Win Loss Bye
Eyeing the new ends in Buffalo.
Week 1
AFC East
2011 record: – Fourth in AFC East
Fitzpatrick
Signing Mario Williams
Average starting QB 61.4% 61.7%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,589 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 18 14.9 0
5
10
15
Perception: Chan Gailey runs a dink-and-dunk offense. Reality: Gailey knows the value of going deep. Fitzpatrick’s 172 vertical attempts last season ranked 12th in the NFL, and WRs Stevie Johnson and David Nelson are viable stretch threats. The head coach might let Fitz air it out more in 2012 if the QB can reduce his 7.2% bad-decision rate on vertical passes (28th in the league).
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
25 24.4 0
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
20
25
LB Nigel Bradham In 2011, Buffalo drafted LSU’s Sheppard in the third round, knowing he didn’t stand out in any specific area. He was productive, though not disruptive, and played right away. This year’s fourth-round pick, Bradham of Florida State, fits the same profile. He started 37 straight games in Tallahassee, and his work ethic will show early.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
107
New York Jets
Miami Dolphins
2011 record: – Second in AFC East
Tebow and the Jets headed for hard knocks.
No QB can keep Fins from diving below .500.
These numbers are based on the idea that Sanchez will lose about 100 snaps to the Tim Tebow package. Of course, your guess is as good as ours as to how that situation—and the Jets—will play out.
4.1 ypa vs. short passes, tied for third lowest in NFL among CBs with at least 32 pass targets
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Defensive backs This group should be special. The Jets feature an excellent nickel package of CBs Revis, Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson, who all love to take chances on big plays in aggressive man coverage with press technique. The key will be safeties Eric Smith, Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry, the last of whom has the tough task of replacing Jim Leonhard. WORST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends This group doesn’t scare defenses. A banged-up Santonio Holmes is the one deep threat, though he has been a bigger threat to team chemistry of late. Chaz Schilens and Jeremy Kerley fill out the three-wide package, but the hope is that rookie Stephen Hill out of Georgia Tech develops quickly into a vertical target. Otherwise, TE Dustin Keller has to move the chains. —G.H.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 57.2% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 2,943 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 14 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
We ek 11 11 @ /15 BU F
Chance of winning division
11/11 vs. TEN
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
PAUL SPIN E LLI/AP IMAGE S
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Matt Moore’s 2011 stats: 60.5% comp., 2,497 yards, 16 TDs, 9 INTs
CAMERON WAKE, LB
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
LB Demario Davis Davis didn’t get a lot of pub in college, but the third-round pick out of Arkansas State is just the type of athlete who inspires Rex Ryan’s creativity. The kid can flat-out fly and not just as an up-the-field pass rusher. His range really shows against the run—he covers ground quickly from sideline to sideline.
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Trading for Tebow Picking him up was gutsy—and the right move. Still, there are two potential problems. The PR issue could leak into the locker room, where the Jets have enough drama, and Tebow takes a lot of on-field punishment. If he becomes a key component and then gets hurt, the burden to carry the team will be even greater for Sanchez.
Perception: Sanchez’s lack of leadership killed the Jets’ passing attack. Reality: No, it was New York’s decision to make an over-the-hill Plaxico Burress its primary vertical target. His 6.7 vertical ypa was the lowest of any receiver with 50 or more vertical targets. Eliminate Burress and Sanchez shows no drop-off in vertical productivity (10.8 VYPA in 2010, 10.7 VYPA in 2011). Hill and Schilens should be upgrades.
Chance of making playoffs
People are overreacting to Miami’s winning six of its last nine in 2011. The roster has holes, and new coach Joe Philbin could be looking long term. If the Fins get David Garrard back at full strength, seven is about right. If Ryan Tannehill takes over, they won’t make it. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
20
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
LVH over/under wins
2012 PROJECTION Sanchez
–
Week 1 0
We ek 11 11 @ /18 ST L
DARRELLE REVIS, CB
2012 projected record
Whether it’s David Garrard, Moore or Ryan Tannehill under center, we don’t have much confidence that Joe Philbin’s new system will mesh with a team that tied for last in the NFL with 4.3 yac in 2011.
14.5 tackles for loss, tied for 19th in the NFL
2012 PROJECTION
Has a sack in 18 of his past 32 games
Completion percentage
Moore
Average starting QB 60.4% 61.7%
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Linebackers The Dolphins are one of many teams switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3, but they will still show hybrid looks to take advantage of rush specialist Wake, who will be at DE in their base set. Veteran Karlos Dansby can anchor the middle, which should allow OLBs Koa Misi and rookie Olivier Vernon to provide an improved blitz from the edge. WORST UNIT Wide receivers It’s hard to run a West Coast scheme that relies on yards after the catch when the personnel isn’t explosive. Davone Bess is the top receiver—and he’s a slot guy. On the outside, Legedu Naanee can’t stretch the field and will easily be handled in single coverage. To compensate, the Fins must use the pass-catching skills of TE Anthony Fasano and RB Reggie Bush. —G.H.
ALLEN EYESTONE/PALM BEACH POST/ZUMAPRESS
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,186 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 12 14.9 0
5
10
Drafting Tannehill Not much went right this offseason, and with Garrard’s health uncertain, the future is now for the Dolphins. Tannehill, the overall No. 8 pick, looks to me like he will get the nod over Moore to start Week 1, and his familiarity with the schemes of O-coordinator Mike Sherman, his head coach at Texas A&M, should shorten the rookie learning curve.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Miami has the NFL’s worst offense. Reality: The Fins lost their top WR and deep threat, Brandon Marshall, who averaged 12.0 vertical ypa in 2011, tied for 29th in the NFL. But Miami was ninth in run-blocking productivity, and Bush took advantage (8.7 good-blocking ypa, tied for 10th in the league). The addition of rookie RT Jonathan Martin (Stanford) will also help. There are certainly teams with bigger issues on offense (see: Jaguars).
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
20 0
Week 9
Mark Sanchez’s 2011 stats: 56.7% comp., 3,474 yards, 26 TDs, 18 INTs
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 JA X
BY E
- 11/4 @ IND
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
- 5 11/2 EA .S vs
12/9 @ SF
17 Week
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
2
- 12/2 vs. NE
We ek 7
- 12/30 @ NE
The Jets obviously need to sort out the QB situation, but otherwise things feel a lot like 2011. They weren’t lucky or unlucky with regard to injuries and turnovers, and their draft was average. They win eight or nine games every season. That shouldn’t change. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
Week 9
11/11 @ SEA
BYE
Week 1 0
We ek 2
9/1 @P 6 IT
17 Week
- 9/9 vs. BUF
Chance of making playoffs
- 12/30 @ BUF
Week 1
Chance of winning division
Week 1 4
13 Week k1
10/1 vs. S 4 TL
16 ek We - 23 12/ UF .B vs
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
LVH over/under wins
108
16 ek We - 3 12/2 D .S vs
– –
- 23 9/ . NYJ vs
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ CIN
8 ek We - 8 10/2 J NY @
2012 projected record
3
e We
Win Loss Bye
8 ek We - 8 10/2 A MI vs.
We ek 15 12 @ /17 TE N
2 11/2 E .N vs
PREDICTED SCORE
2
12/9 @ JAX
10 @ /
k ee W
k1
- 12/2 vs. ARI
We ek 7
Win Loss Bye/tie
Week 1 4
13 Week
e We
- 10/ vs. I 14 ND
4
/30 9 I @ AR
21 NE
PREDICTED SCORE
23 9/ MIA @
3
k Wee
9/1 vs. 6 OA K
k ee W
- 10/8 vs. HOU
We ek 2
- 9/30 F vs. S
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 @ HOU
4
PREVIEW
AFC East
Week 5
Week 1
AFC East k Wee
2011 record: – Third in AFC East
15
20
25
TE Michael Egnew Miami’s receiving weapons—Bess, Naanee, Brian Hartline—are duds, but Egnew, a third-rounder out of Missouri, has legitimate mismatch athleticism. He can run a sub-4.6 40 at 6'5", 251 pounds, meaning LBs will struggle to keep up, and DBs won’t be able to handle his size. Look for Miami to use plenty of two-TE sets with Egnew and Fasano.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
109
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
2011 record: – Lost in AFC championship
Same old story: The Ravens’ D is key.
The clock is ticking for the Steelers.
2012 PROJECTION Flacco
BEST UNIT Defensive backs Reed has led this unit with instincts and playmaking skills for a decade. Even though he’s slower, the eight-time Pro Bowler still gets to a lot of balls, and SS Bernard Pollard is the perfect complement in run support. CBs Lardarius Webb, Jimmy Smith and Cary Williams can play man press schemes, and the group is good in turn-and-run situations (NFL-high 112 deflections). WORST UNIT Offensive line RG Marshal Yanda and RT Michael Oher are sound, which is good because RB Ray Rice loves to run right. But the left side is another story: C Matt Birk is smart, but he’s 36. There is a big hole at guard, and LT Bryant McKinnie continues to be out of shape. The group is better at run blocking than pass protection, which may force Oher to the opposite side. —G.H.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
58.1% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,641 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 13 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 BA L
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl - LVH over/under wins
Ben Roethlisberger’s 2011 stats: 63.2% comp., 4,077 yards, 21 TDs, 14 INTs
LAMARR WOODLEY, LB
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
RB Bernard Pierce The Ravens gave Rice a new deal in the offseason, and Pierce, a third-round pick out of Temple, will be a key to keeping the star healthy. Pierce is explosive, even at 218 pounds, and will get his share of early-down looks on an offense determined to pound teams. Pierce is a liability as a pass catcher, but Rice will be fresher for third downs.
TOM HAUCK/AP IMAGES
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Drafting LB Courtney Upshaw The second-round pick out of Alabama represents a much-needed addition to a front seven that is depleted after Terrell Suggs’ Achilles injury. Upshaw (6'2" 272 pounds) seals the edge well and is good against the run, but asking him to make up for Suggs’ sack total (14) will be too much. He still should prove valuable in the pass rush before the end of the season.
Perception: Anquan Boldin can’t beat top corners. Reality: That used to be the case. But in 2011, Boldin racked up 9.1 ypa against the league’s most consistent corners, those who gave up 9 ypa or fewer. To get a sense of his success, consider that despite missing two games, Boldin ranked seventh out of the 33 receivers with at least 35 targets in such matchups.
Chance of making playoffs
Professional gamblers rarely advocate taking the over with a double-digit line, but in 2011, Pittsburgh was one of the NFL’s unluckiest teams (minus-13 turnover margin) and was hit hard with key injuries. One extra win and the Steelers would have won the North. —M.S.
VEGAS VIBE
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
23 24.4
11/12 vs. KC
11/11 vs. OAK
Week 1 0
INSIDER’S VIEW
Completion percentage
Chance of winning division
Week 1 0
We ek 11 11 / @ 18 PIT
- 9/1 @P 6 HI
We ek 2
- 9/10 vs. CIN
1,463 INT return yards, second in NFL history
Average starting QB
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
NFL-record seven straight playoff games with a sack
2012 PROJECTION
At least one sack in 22 of last 37 games
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Linebackers The Steelers’ window is beginning to close, but this is still a dominating unit—if it can stay healthy. OLBs James Harrison and Woodley generate sacks in bunches, ILBs Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote are solid in run and pass containment, and Jason Worilds, Chris Carter and Sean Spence provide good depth. WORST UNIT Running backs When healthy, Pittsburgh’s backs aren’t terrible. But Rashard Mendenhall is still sidelined while recovering from a January ACL injury. That leaves Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer, both nagged by injuries this preseason, to split carries. Add to the list starting FB David Johnson’s torn ACL and an uptick to the running game is a tall order. —G.H.
RIC TAPIA/ICON SMI
The problem isn’t forecasting Big Ben’s play but how often he’ll be hit. Since the AFL-NFL merger, only three QBs took more sacks in their first eight seasons: Neil Lomax, Randall Cunningham and Ken O’Brien.
Roethlisberger
Average starting QB 65.4% 61.7%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,160 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 13 14.9 0
5
10
15
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Hiring OC Todd Haley It remains to be seen what the Steelers offense will look like under Haley, the former Chiefs head coach, but I expect Pittsburgh will be more ground and pound, based on KC’s look the past two seasons. That raises the question: Do you want to limit WR Mike Wallace’s targets for the sake of this backfield?
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Wallace is not worth big money. Reality: He could be the most productive receiver in the NFL, with the second-highest ypa (11.7) last season among WRs with at least 100 targets. He also led in that category in 2010 and even bested Calvin Johnson last season in the shortvertical and stretch-vertical ypa categories. If Pittsburgh isn’t willing to show him the money, some team will pay Wallace handsomely.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
26 24.4 0
Week 9
57 INTs since 2002, most in the NFL
–
- 11/4 @ NYG
ED REED, FS
In 2011, Flacco threw for his fewest TDs since he was a rookie, but our forecast shows his ypa mark and TD rate to be much closer to his career numbers (7.1, 4.1%) than last year’s down stats (6.7, 3.7%).
2012 projected record
17 Week
Joe Flacco’s 2011 stats: 57.6% comp., 3,610 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs
- 25 11/ LE C @
We ek 15 12 @ /16 DA L
- 12/30 vs. CLE
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Week 9
LVH over/under wins
- 11/4 @ CLE
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
17 Week
Usually, the questions are on offense, but they locked up Ray Rice. The D is older, and Terrell Suggs is likely gone for the year. That hurts against a tough schedule, with the AFC North squaring off against the NFC East. Too close to call this one. —MadduxSports.com
VEGAS VIBE
- 12/30 @ CIN
Week 1
12/9 vs. SD
10 @ /
8 ek We - 8 10/2 S WA vs.
2 k1
- 12/2 @ BAL
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 12/2 IN .C vs
Chance of making playoffs
Week 1 4
13 Week
e We
Win Loss Bye
E BY
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
110
16 ek We - 3 12/2 YG .N vs
–
- /23 K 9 OA @
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
3
- 10/ @ T 11 EN
21 N CI
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 DE N
8 ek We
- 25 11/ SD @
12/9 @ WAS
k ee W
2 k1
- 12/2 vs. PIT
10 @ / H
21 U O
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
Wee k6
- 10/7 vs. PHI
- 9/23 E .N vs
4
BYE
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/ vs. D 14 AL
9/1 vs. 6 NY J
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
- 10/7 @ KC
/27 9 LE vs. C
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 @ DEN
4
PREVIEW
AFC North
Week 5
Week 1
AFC North k Wee
2011 record: – Lost in wild-card game
20
25
OT Mike Adams If the second-round pick out of Ohio State had come off the board midway through Round 1, it wouldn’t have been a surprise. He hasn’t always played up to his talent, but Adams was the best pass protector in the draft after overall No. 4 pick Matt Kalil. If Adams heals quickly from a sprained MCL, he might even start the season at left tackle.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
111
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
2011 record: – Lost in wild-card game
A much tamer season awaits Dalton & Co.
The rookie excitement will fade in Week 1.
- 10/7 vs. MIA
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Defensive line This 4-3 front will occasionally morph into a 3-4 and is very effective at winning one-on-one matchups using twists and stunts. The defense had 45 sacks in 2011 (fifth in the NFL), and that number should increase with Atkins and DE Michael Johnson coming off breakout seasons. WORST UNIT Running backs Marvin Lewis likes to think of his offense as a run-first attack, even though the passing game should be better equipped. The Bengals just don’t have the personnel to keep it on the ground. Former Patriots RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis is more explosive on the stretch play than the departed Cedric Benson, but he has never really been “the guy,� which will likely force Lewis to use more of a back-by-committee approach. —G.H.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Completion percentage 62.4% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,752 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 15 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
We ek 11 11 @ /18 DA L
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
Brandon Weeden’s 2011 stats (at OK St.): 72.3% comp., 4,727 yards, 37 TDs, 13 INTs
JOE THOMAS, LT
PAUL SPIN E LLI/AP IMAGE S
Put a short-route passer into a shortroute offense and you get short numbers, especially for a rookie. Did we mention that Browns WRs tied Dolphins WRs for the NFL’s lowest yac (4.3) in 2011?
Played every snap of five-year career
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
WR Mohamed Sanu Cincinnati has a clear No. 1 target in A.J. Green, and Sanu, a third-round steal out of Rutgers, could fill the void at No. 2. He gets knocked for lacking top-end speed, but you can’t argue with his great ball skills and willingness to play in traffic. With teams forced to bracket Green, Sanu should see plenty of open space.
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Signing Green-Ellis The Law Firm provides the Bengals with a dependable all-around back. He’s not flashy, but I expect he’ll be a huge upgrade over Benson. Green-Ellis possesses a high football IQ, keeps the ball off the ground (no fumbles in his career) and is a great blocker. Benson didn’t have near the intangibles.
Perception: Cincy’s D will crumble. Reality: The Bengals went 0–7 against playoff teams in 2011 and allowed 24-plus points to five of them. But their defense was one of five units to rack up 40-plus sacks and force QBs into a poor bad-decision rate (3.0% or higher). The others to hit those marks: 49ers, Giants, Eagles and Ravens. That’s fine company—and now first-rounder Dre Kirkpatrick (Bama) joins the secondary.
Chance of making playoffs
There’s no arguing that Andy Dalton and Cam Newton played well last year, but I still bet under on teams with rookie starting quarterbacks. RB Trent Richardson will aid QB Brandon Weeden, but the D is the strength of this team. I can’t see how they get to six wins. —M.S.
VEGAS VIBE
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
23 24.4
BYE
11/11 vs. NYG
Week 1 0
First interior DL to lead team outright in sacks since ’96
Average starting QB
Chance of winning division
LVH over/under wins
2012 PROJECTION Dalton
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
Week 1 0
We ek 11 11 @ /18 KC
9/1 vs. 6 CL E
We ek 2
- 9/10 @ BAL
7.5 sacks, tied for NFL lead among interior linemen
–
Made Pro Bowl in first five seasons (equaling Jim Brown)
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Offensive line Thomas keys an underrated unit that finally has the chance to block for an elite back once overall No. 3 pick Trent Richardson returns from a knee scope. Center Alex Mack hasn’t missed a start in three seasons; second-year LG Jason Pinkston and rookie RT Mitchell Schwartz (Cal) appear equally consistent. The Browns are flexible, playing some zone and man packages and keeping defenses guessing. WORST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends This is a conservative West Coast offense, which is a product of not having playmakers to stretch the D. Greg Little was uneven as a go-to target as a rookie, and return specialist Josh Cribbs was No. 2. Mohamed Massaquoi’s production has regressed, and tight ends have been nonexistent. —G.H.
DAVID RICHARD/US PRESSWIRE
Week 9
The Bengals were 29th in the NFL with just 4.5 yac, particularly poor for an offense designed to hit WRs on the run. Improve the yac and Dalton improves his yardage total. That’s what we’re projecting.
2012 projected record
- 11/4 vs. BAL
GENO ATKINS, DT
- 25 11/ IT .P vs
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 WA S
10 @ / I
17 Week
Andy Dalton’s 2011 stats: 58.1% comp., 3,398 yards, 20 TDs, 13 INTs
12/9 vs. KC
- 12/30 @ PIT
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Week 9
LVH over/under wins
- 11/4 vs. DEN
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
17 Week
In 2011, about every professional sports bettor I know had action on the Bengals going under 5.5. We all lost. But the Bengals didn’t beat a single playoff team, and the stats say they were closer to a 7–9 team. With a tougher schedule, there’s no chance they win nine. —M.S.
VEGAS VIBE
- 12/30 vs. BAL
Week 1
2
8 ek We - 8 10/2 SD vs.
k1
- 12/2 @ OAK
16 ek We - 3 12/2 EN D @
Chance of making playoffs
E BY
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
112
16 ek We - 3 12/2 IT P @
– –
e We
Win Loss Bye/tie
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
2012 projected record
- 9/23 UF .B vs
10/1 vs. C 4 IN
We ek 15 12 @ /13 PH I
8 ek We
5 11/2 AK .O vs
PREDICTED SCORE
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ NYG
21 D N
2
12/9 vs. DA L
k1
- 12/2 @ SD
10 vs / .
k ee W
e We
Win Loss Bye/tie
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
21 T PI
PREDICTED SCORE
9/23 AS W @
3
- 10/ @ C 14 LE
4
/27 9 AL @B
9/1 @C 6 IN
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
/30 9 X @ JA
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 vs. PHI
4
PREVIEW
AFC North
Week 5
Week 1
AFC North k Wee
2011 record: – Fourth in AFC North
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Drafting Richardson He’s a once-in-a-generation talent. Only a few backs in the NFL have the stamina and capacity to be an every-down back, and Richardson should join that group. When I was with the Colts, we were always thrilled when the Jags took MJD out of the game. I suspect opponents will feel the same when they see Richardson trot to the sideline.
2012 PROJECTION Weeden
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 57.2% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,060 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 20 14.9 0
5
10
Perception: Cleveland’s D is abysmal. Reality: The Browns had issues, but don’t overlook their strengths. They tied for eighth in vertical ypa allowed (10.2), were ninth in stretch-vertical ypa allowed (11.6) and tied for eighth in good-blocking ypa allowed (7.1). If those numbers repeat and CB Joe Haden (career-worst 8.0 ypa allowed in 2011) emerges stronger from a likely suspension, the D should boost a questionable offense.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
16 0
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
15
20
25
WR Josh Gordon The Browns surprised folks when they used the supplemental draft to grab the former Baylor standout. You don’t make that pick unless you know the player can help right away. Gordon has the size (6'4", 220) and speed (4.52 40) to create mismatches and could start early on a team desperate for impact receivers.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
113
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
2011 record: – Lost in divisional round
As Foster goes, so goes this division.
Hasselbeck in the playoffs would be a miracle.
11/11 @ CHI
Week 1 0
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,735 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 12 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
BY E
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Matt Hasselbeck’s 2011 stats: 61.6% comp., 3,571 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs
MICHAEL ROOS, LT
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24 24.4 0
We ek 11
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 JA X
9/1 @J 6 AX
We ek 2
- 9/9 vs. MIA
WORST UNIT Offensive line The left side is solid. The problem is that the run game is right-leaning. The Texans will have new starters at right guard (Antoine Caldwell) and right tackle (Rashad Butler). They must pick up a difficult scheme quickly, as inconsistent run blocking can also affect Houston’s play-action. —G.H.
63% 61.7% 0%
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
25
DE Jared Crick A year ago, I would have graded Crick as a possible first-round pick. Based on his production at Nebraska, he looked like a J.J. Watt clone. But injuries caught up to Crick as a senior, and he fell to Round 4. At full strength, Crick (6'4", 276 pounds) could back up or play next to Watt as another brick in the wall Houston is trying to rebuild.
TOM DIPACE/AP IMAGES
Was on field for every snap in 2011 (1,045 plays)
2012 PROJECTION
112-game active starting streak
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Offensive line This is a physical man-blocking group that throws in zone looks to accommodate the backs. Roos and RT David Stewart are the anchors; the inside guys aren’t as polished but are consistent. The Titans will add more two-TE sets this season and use FB Quinn Johnson to free RB Chris Johnson, who should bounce back from a down year. WORST UNIT Defensive line The depth is okay, but the unit just isn’t explosive. The D had 28 sacks in 2011, fewer than every team but the Bucs. With only eight of those sacks coming from the ends, the Titans added Kamerion Wimbley in free agency. In a 4-3 front, they want the pressure to come from the front four to protect the back seven, but that might be too much to ask of a young line. —G.H.
BRIAN A. WESTERHOLT/GETTY IMAGES
By our projections, the Titans face the NFL’s toughest schedule of opposing pass defenses. Hasselbeck could easily bust, leading to Jake Locker, who showed little promise as a rookie.
Hasselbeck
Average starting QB 60.9% 61.7%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,592 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 13 14.9 0
5
10
15
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Drafting WR Kendall Wright Plagued by the antics and injuries of Kenny Britt, the Titans are counting on Wright to be the reliable big-play receiver they need. The firstrounder out of Baylor won’t be a smash right away, especially if Hasselbeck is replaced by Locker at some point. But he has the tools to become a next-generation Derrick Mason.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Losing Britt halts the Titans’ deep attack. Reality: Britt missed almost all of 2011, and the team’s QBs were still able to notch a 12.0 vertical ypa mark, tied for seventh best in the NFL. The development of Wright (15.4 vertical ypa at Baylor in 2011) and Jared Cook (19.8 vertical ypa, tops among TEs) should make Britt’s return from ACL surgery a luxury rather than a necessity.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
21 0
Week 9
BEST UNIT Running backs This is a terrific one-two punch. Foster and backup Ben Tate are big-play backs, and the Texans have a well-designed attack, featuring good zone-blocking principles. Foster and Tate are one-cut runners, but they have the patience to let blocks form; they know how to break it to the weak side as well. To further strengthen this unit, Houston will use James Casey as a lead fullback.
Completion percentage
Barring injury, Chris Johnson has to be better. But Matt Hasselbeck is close to finished, and Jake Locker doesn’t excite us. The Titans didn’t do much in free agency. We didn’t like their draft. The schedule is tough. They’ll struggle to be a .500 team. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH over/under wins
Drafting LB Whitney Mercilus After an offseason in which DE Mario Williams walked and LB DeMeco Ryans was traded, the Texans’ first-round pick out of Illinois will be asked to help replace their production. That’s a lot of pressure on a rookie who is moving from being a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB. But he has the credentials: 16 sacks and nine forced fumbles in 2011.
Perception: Andre Johnson is the key to the Texans’ passing attack. Reality: Johnson is one of the most explosive WRs in the NFL and was part of the reason Houston posted 7.9 ypa last season, tied for sixth in the league. But Texans QBs tallied a respectable 7.7 ypa on passes thrown to someone other than Johnson. Even if his injury woes continue, this aerial assault should still perform at a high level.
- 11/4 vs. CHI
INSIDER’S VIEW
Average starting QB
Chance of making playoffs
17 Week
Consecutive seasons of 1,000 rush yards and 600 receiving yards
Chance of winning division
2012 PROJECTION Schaub
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
- 12/30 vs. JAX
NFL-leading 141.6 ypg from scrimmage
Week 9
Houston’s RB tandem will limit Schaub’s number of attempts and, in turn, his opportunities for passing touchdowns. His numbers will certainly increase after he missed six games due to injury in 2011.
2012 projected record
–
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Matt Schaub’s 2011 stats: 61% comp., 2,479 yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs
ARIAN FOSTER, RB
- 11/4 vs. BUF
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
17 Week
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 12/30 @ IND
Last season, the D went from one of the NFL’s worst to one of its best. The offense remains potent. With a kind schedule, this team is popular. But Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans are gone, and Matt Schaub is fragile. Houston won’t be as good. —WunderdogSports.com
VEGAS VIBE
We ek 15 12 vs. /17 NY J
8 ek We - 10/28 IND vs.
12/9 @ IND
10 @ / B
- 5 2 11/ AX J @
- 12/2 vs. HOU
We ek 7
Chance of making playoffs
Week 1 4
13 Week
2 k1
- 10/ vs. P 11 IT
16 ek We - 23 12/ GB @
Chance of winning division
- 23 9/ DET . vs e We
Win Loss Bye
E BY
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
LVH over/under wins
114
16 ek We - 3 12/2 IN .M vs
– –
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ MIN
21 F U
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
8 ek We
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 IN D
- 22 11/ ET D @
12/10 @ NE
k ee W
2 k1
- 12/2 @ TEN
10 vs / .
21 L BA
e We
Win Loss Bye/tie
Week 1 4
13 Week
23 9/ DEN @
We ek 7
11/11 @ MIA
4
- 30 9/ U O @H
Week 1 0
PREDICTED SCORE
Week 1
3
10/ 14 vs. G B
9/1 @S 6 D
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
- 10/8 @ NYJ
9/30 EN vs. T
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 vs. NE
4
PREVIEW
AFC South
Week 5
Week 1
AFC South k Wee
2011 record: – Second in AFC South
20
25
DT Mike Martin In 2011, Tennessee got a steal in the fifth round with DT Karl Klug; this year Martin appears to be a similar find in Round 3. He isn’t the biggest (306 pounds) or fastest, but he’s absolutely relentless and can work free inside because of his powerful hands. It’s hard to imagine that this Michigan man won’t see snaps early and often.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
115
Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
2011 record: – Fourth in AFC South
Now the NFL gets to have fun with Luck puns.
MJD is still good—the team still isn’t.
- 10/7 vs. GB
Surprisingly, the number of rushing TDs a team has the previous year is a good indicator of how many passing TDs a rookie QB will have. The Colts had eight rushing TDs in 2011, so Luck will have the chances.
Luck
WORST UNIT Offensive line The Colts return only two starters from 2011, LT Anthony Castonzo and LG Jeff Linkenbach; the rest are castoffs and underachievers. They’ll try to be a more physical man-blocking group, but that’s tough to do with guys built for finesse, not power. Pass protection could be an issue. —G.H.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Completion percentage 61.9% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,453 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 17 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
We ek 11 11 @ /18 HO U
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl - LVH over/under wins
Blaine Gabbert’s 2011 stats: 50.8% comp., 2,214 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs
MAURICE JONES-DREW, RB
BRIAN SPURLOCK/US PRESSWIRE
Since 1978, 10 rookie QBs averaged fewer than 5.5 ypa on at least 200 attempts (like Gabbert). The following year, seven of them averaged 6.0 ypa. The other three? They lost their starting jobs.
954 carries since 2009, most of any RB
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
TE Dwayne Allen The strong Luck-Fleener connection should continue at the NFL level, but don’t be surprised if the third-round pick out of Clemson becomes well acquainted with his new QB early. Allen (6'3", 255) is versatile enough to line up on the outside and should benefit in two-tight-end looks that Luck used so often in college.
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Drafting Luck The torch has been passed—and what a heavy torch it is. I worry about Luck’s protection, and while rookie TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen can play, there’s not much oomph left in the vertical passing game. The overall No. 1 pick might be used to that from his time at Stanford, but he’s not playing against UCLA’s D anymore.
Perception: The Colts will continue to air it out. Reality: O-coordinator Bruce Arians has never had a team rank higher than 15th in pass attempts in his eight seasons of calling plays. (His offenses have averaged only 504 pass attempts per year.) Luck also operated out of a run-first system at Stanford—his teams never threw the ball more than 45% of the time in a season—and that trend will continue, at least to start his pro career.
Chance of making playoffs
Jack Del Rio is out, Mike Mularkey is in (that helps) and Blaine Gabbert can’t be worse than last year. But if he still stinks, Chad Henne is capable. The D should remain solid against a softer 2012 schedule. The Jags aren’t good, but you don’t have to be to win six. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
18
11/8 vs. IND
Week 1 0
11/8 @ JAX
Week 1 0
BEST UNIT Linebackers With the Colts’ switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 under new defensive coordinator Greg Manusky, the D’s two best players, DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, become OLBs—at least on early downs. ILBs Kavell Conner and Angerer (likely out through Week 3 with a broken foot) are underrated and athletic, and they will stay on the field for all three downs. This group can blitz from any direction and should create a lot of big plays.
Average starting QB
Chance of winning division
2012 PROJECTION
One of seven players with 100-plus tackles and 9-plus TFLs in 2011
INSIDER’S VIEW
9/1 vs. 6 HO U
We ek 11 11 / 1 @ 8 NE
9/1 vs. 6 MI N
148 tackles in 2011, fourth most in NFL
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
BEST UNIT Running backs A healthy dose of MJD is what new head coach Mike Mularkey will continue to give opposing D’s. A true every-down back, Jones-Drew is an excellent zone scheme runner with one-cut-and-go techniques. The Jags will even throw in some stretch plays to get him outside. Their best chance to be effective is in two-back sets with lead FB Greg Jones, keeping pressure off young QB Blaine Gabbert. WORST UNIT Defensive line The Jags sorely lack impact players up front. The key is at tackle, where Terrance Knighton and Tyson Alualu haven’t been disruptive enough to help the outside rush. DE Jeremy Mincey’s eight sacks surprised in 2011, but rookie Andre Branch will need to provide a major boost on the other edge. —G.H.
PHELAN M. EBENHACK/AP IMAGES
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Drafting P Bryan Anger It might be indicative of the Jags’ status that taking a punter in the third round could be the team’s biggest pickup. But the Cal product will be a field flipper for a D that could use the extra yards. And extra yards on every punt could easily add up to more field goals for kicker Josh Scobee, who can boom it through the Jacksonville wind.
2012 PROJECTION Gabbert
62 career rushing TDs, second among active RBs
INSIDER’S VIEW
Week 9
PAT ANGERER, LB
–
- 11/4 vs. DET
Andrew Luck’s 2011 stats (at Stanford): 71.3% comp., 3,517 yards, 37 TDs, 10 INTs
2012 projected record
17 Week
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
We ek 15 12 @ /16 MI A
- 12/30 @ TEN
LVH over/under wins
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 11/4 vs. MIA
Last season was a lost cause, but the Colts weren’t as bad as their record. Teams with three or fewer wins and near the bottom of the NFL in scoring differential tend to improve by an average of four wins the next season. Andrew Luck is not a typical rookie QB either. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
- 9/9 @ CHI
12/30 vs. HOU
Week 1
12/9 vs. NYJ
10 @ / O
8 ek We - 8 10/2 GB @
Chance of making playoffs
- 5 11/2 EN .T vs
- 12/2 @ BUF
16 ek We - 23 12/ NE . vs
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
116
16 ek We - 23 12/ KC @
–
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
2 k1
We ek 7
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
8 ek We - 10/28 TEN @
- 25 11/ UF .B vs
We ek 15 12 @ /16 HO U
- 9/23 D IN @
BYE
12/9 vs. TEN
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 vs. CHI
21 K A
2 k1
- 12/2 @ DET
10 vs / .
e We
We ek 2
Week 1 4
13 Week
k ee W
- 9/23 AX .J vs
We ek 7
21 E CL
PREDICTED SCORE
3
4
/30 9 IN vs. C
We ek 2
k ee W
k Wee
- 10/ @ N 14 YJ
PREVIEW
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 @ MIN
4
BYE
Win Loss Bye
AFC South
Week 5
Week 1
AFC South k Wee
2011 record: – Third in AFC South
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 54.6% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 2,941 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptons 13 14.9 0
5
10
Perception: Justin Blackmon is the Jags’ best WR. Reality: He was the biggest-name addition this offseason, but free agent signee Laurent Robinson will make the biggest plays. In 2011, his 9.7 ypa against tough CBs (9.0 ypa allowed or fewer) was fifth among WRs with at least 35 targets against those corners. Considering Blackmon’s decline at OK State (12.1 ypa in 2010, 9.0 ypa in 2011) and off-field issues, it’s clear who should be No. 1.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
16 0
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
15
20
25
DE Andre Branch Jacksonville hasn’t had a decent pass rush in a while, but the second-round pick out of Clemson could produce immediate dividends. Branch uses a quick first step and leverage to turn the corner on blockers. He also has a decent club move to get OTs off balance. For an end, he lacks bulk (6'5", 265), but his quickness will create disruption.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
117
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
2011 record: – Second in AFC West
To make a run, the Chargers take to the air.
Mile High crushes on a QB—again.
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
Rivers
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 62.9% 61.7%
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Linebackers Lacking an edge rush, the Chargers tied for 23rd with 32 sacks and were dead last with only seven forced fumbles in 2011. So to give nine-year vet Phillips some help, the Bolts signed free agent Jarret Johnson from Baltimore and drafted Melvin Ingram out of South Carolina. Combine them with ILBs Takeo Spikes and fast-rising Donald Butler and the Chargers have a speedy blitzing corps. WORST UNIT Offensive line This is an athletically stale group that gets exposed by good pass rushers. That’s double trouble, as the Chargers will need to pass more while RB Ryan Mathews fully recovers from a broken clavicle, and the division is stacked with sackers (KC’s Tamba Hali, Denver’s Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller). —G.H.
118
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,365 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 15 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
–
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
Peyton Manning is great, but remember: He’s 36, had multiple neck surgeries and faces one of the NFL’s toughest schedules. Normally, this screams under, but he churns out double-digit-win seasons. It comes down to his health. We’re staying away. —M.S.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl - LVH over/under wins
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Signing WR Eddie Royal
Peyton Manning’s 2010 stats: 66.3% comp., 4,700 yards, 33 TDs, 17 INTs
VON MILLER, LB
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Rivers is not the AFC West’s top QB. Reality: Peyton Manning’s move to Denver makes this a discussion for the first time in what seems like forever. But let’s not overhype Rivers’ 2011 struggles. He still ranked ninth in overall ypa (7.9) and vertical ypa (12.0). And he has always been able to compensate for less-than-elite receiving talent, so the Chargers shouldn’t feel the sting of Jackson’s departure too badly.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
28
2012 projected record
2012 PROJECTION
Started all 89 of the games he played in the past six years
We ek 15 12 @ /16 BA L
TE Ladarius Green Green won’t replace Antonio Gates this season, but he has this in common with the three-time All-Pro: a wide catch radius. The fourth-round pick from Louisiana-Lafayette uses his 6'6" frame to haul down everything. Gates has declined over the past two years, and Randy McMichael lacks much upside, so keep an eye on Green’s development.
PAUL SPIN ELLI/AP IMAGES
Tied Broncos rookie record with 11.5 sacks
2012 PROJECTION
19.5 tackles for loss, sixth in the NFL
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S VIEW
BEST UNIT Linebackers The Broncos drafted Miller last year to lead the shift to a 4-3. His 11.5 sacks invigorated the pass rush, which went from last (23 sacks) to tied for 10th (41). MLB Joe Mays had a breakout season (75 tackles), and OLB D.J. Williams had five sacks but will miss six games for a PED suspension. Fortunately, supersub Wesley Woodyard led the team with 97 tackles. WORST UNIT Defensive line Elvis Dumervil got his wish to play defensive end and had 9.5 sacks. So how is this the worst unit? Denver hasn’t had a run defense ranked above 22nd since 2006. DE Robert Ayers seemingly has more position changes than sacks. The tackles are a mystery. Ty Warren missed 2011 with a torn triceps, and Justin Bannan has switched teams three straight offseasons. —G.H.
JACK DEMPSEY/AP IMAGES
The biggest question about Manning might not be how well he throws but how often he throws. Colts offenses were generally high on pass attempts, but John Fox–coached teams are run-heavy.
Manning
Average starting QB 65% 61.7%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,380 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 11 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Signing Manning This one was easy, Manning’s leadership makes every player better. It might take a few games, but by midseason he will have the offense working with the precision we’ve come to expect. My only reservation: RBs Willis McGahee, Knowshon Moreno and Ronnie Hillman don’t seem to have the versatile skill sets Manning prefers.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Champ Bailey is still one of the NFL’s best corners. Reality: Since 2007, Bailey has 11 picks and no more than three INTs in a season. Not exactly Pro Bowl numbers. And how can you be one of the NFL’s best cover corners if you’re not even the best in your division? Bailey’s 7.8 ypa allowed in 2011 was worse than four of his fellow AFC West CBs (Antoine Cason, Stanford Routt, Brandon Carr and Andre’ Goodman).
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
29 24.4 0
Week 9
60 career sacks
- 5 11/2 C K @
BY E
- 11/4 @ CIN
Rivers threw 11 TDs and 14 INTs in his first eight games of 2011 but tossed 16 TDs and 6 INTs in his final eight. His secondhalf bump may not carry over to 2012, but it’s more in line with his career stats.
Let’s face it: No one’s replacing Vincent Jackson, but Royal could come close. He’ll see favorable matchups playing in the slot next to Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem. Royal missed four games last season for Denver and has battled a groin injury in camp, but if he stays healthy, he has the big-play ability to make an impact in the return game.
2
12/6 @ OAK
17 Week
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
k1
- 12/2 vs. TB
We ek 7
- 12/30 vs. KC
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Philip Rivers’ 2011 stats: 62.9% comp., 4,624 yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs
SHAUN PHILLIPS, LB
Week 9
LVH over/under wins
- 11/1 vs. KC
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
17 Week
The Chargers are typically prohibitive favorites in the AFC West. Now they’re underestimated. They weren’t as bad as their 8-8 record indicated. The D improved via the draft, and we like new WRs Eddie Royal and Robert Meachem. They’ll get 10 wins. —MadduxSports.com
VEGAS VIBE
Win Loss Bye
- 12/30 vs. OAK
11/11 @ TB
e We
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 SD
We ek 11 11 / 1 @ DE 8 N
–
PREDICTED SCORE
- 10/ 1 @S 5 D
Week 1 4
13 Week
23 9/ HOU . vs
11/11 @ CAR
2012 projected record
Week 1 0
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 CA R
8 ek We - 8 10/2 NO vs.
- 25 11/ AL .B vs
BY E
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ NE
16 ek We - 3 12/2 LE .C vs
- 9/1 vs. 6 TE N
2
12/9 @ PIT
k ee W
8 ek We - 10/28 CLE @
We ek 2
k1
- 12/2 vs. CIN
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 12/2 J NY @
- 9/10 @ OAK
Week 1 4
13 Week
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1
- 9/23 TL .A vs
4
/30 9 AK vs. O
Week 1 0
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/ vs. D 15 EN
9/1 @A 7 TL
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
- 10/7 @ NO
/30 9 @ KC
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 vs. PIT
4
PREVIEW
AFC West
Week 5
Week 1
AFC West k Wee
2011 record: – Lost in divisional round
25
CB Omar Bolden The tape shows that Bolden has the talent of a first-round pick. But the three-year starter at Arizona State dropped to the fourth round after missing his senior year with a torn ACL. If he stays healthy, there’s no reason Bolden can’t be a starter and perhaps part of the reason Bailey is ultimately moved to safety.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
119
Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders
2011 record: – Fourth in AFC West
As health improves, so could the Chiefs.
Another new coach, same sunken ship.
Has missed only one game in six NFL seasons
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Linebackers Since 2009, when Hali switched to OLB in the Chiefs’ new 3-4, his 35 sacks ranks third in the NFL, and his 12 forced fumbles is tied for fourth. This fast-flow unit uses a lot of pre-snap movement and creative blitz packages. ILB Derrick Johnson (131 tackles in 2011) doesn’t have a weakness in his game. If second-year OLB Justin Houston improves on his 5.5 sacks from 2011, this will challenge for best linebacker corps in the NFL. WORST UNIT Defensive line First it was Glenn Dorsey in 2008, then Tyson Jackson in ’09 and Dontari Poe in ’12. The Chiefs have spent three of their last six first-round picks on boom-or-bust D-linemen. DEs Dorsey and Jackson head one of the most underachieving units in the league (26 tackles for loss since ’10, 27th in the NFL). —G.H.
120
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 58.1% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,659 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 16 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 NO
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Carson Palmer’s 2011 stats: 60.7% comp., 2,753 yards, 13 TDs, 16 INTs
JACOBY FORD, KR/WR
25
WR Devon Wylie The fourth-rounder from Fresno State is not a WR prototype at 5'9", 187 pounds, but no one doubts Wylie’s 4.39 speed. His ability to separate should get him time in the slot. The Chiefs don’t lack returners with Arenas and Dexter McCluster, but Wylie could moonlight there. Any game plan needs to get him the ball a few times.
WILLIAM PURN E LL/ICON SM I
It might shock you to know that Palmer had 7.6 net yards per pass last season, fifth among all QBs with at least 100 attempts. The reason it’s surprising is that Palmer also threw 16 INTs in just 10 games.
One of five players in NFL history with four kickoff TDs in first two years (missed eight games in ‘11 with ankle sprain)
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
22
I love the under. The schedule is tough, with four cross-country trips. And while the rest of the division improved, the Raiders lost key players like Michael Bush in free agency. Maybe a full year of Carson Palmer will help but not enough to get to eight W’s. —M.S.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH over/under wins
Signing RB Peyton Hillis One of the best running games was made better with the addition of Hillis. The fifth-year back will take some touches away from Jamaal Charles, who is coming off an ACL injury. If Hillis and Charles can both regain their 2010 form, the Chiefs will have the makings of a terrific play-action team that will keep a very good defense well rested.
Perception: Losing CB Brandon Carr left a huge hole in the secondary. Reality: Over the past two seasons, Carr allowed 6.9 ypa on 162 targets. To contrast, Stanford Routt—the ex-Raider who replaces Carr—allowed 6.7 ypa on 187 targets. The Chiefs may also lean heavily on nickelback Javier Arenas, whose 5.4 ypa is even better (on a smaller sample size of 76 targets).
Chance of making playoffs
2012 PROJECTION Cassel
Chance of winning division
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Special teams Since 2010, Sebastian Janikowski has hit 84% of his field goals, and Shane Lechler was the only punter to rank in the top five in net yardage each of the past two seasons. But what makes this unit special is the speedy Ford, who has become one of the NFL’s top return men. With improved coverage, the Raiders could have one of the best special teams in the NFL. WORST UNIT Linebackers Since 2003, the Raiders have never ranked higher than 22nd in run defense—and they were 29th or worse five times during that span. Even after drafting MLB Rolando McClain eighth overall in 2010, the run D remains an issue. But all the blame doesn’t fall on him. At OLB, Aaron Curry has two bad knees, Philip Wheeler is ineffective and depth is a problem. —G.H.
BILL BAPTIST/AP IMAGES
Week 9
More than any other QB’s numbers, Cassel’s may come down to his protection. In 2011, he gained 4.8 yards per play with five blockers, 5.7 yards per play with six and 6.1 yards per play with seven or more.
Career-high 32 QB pressures last year
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
- 11/4 vs. TB
TAMBA HALI, LB
2012 projected record
–
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Matt Cassel’s 2011 stats: 59.5% comp., 1,713 yards, 10 TDs, 9 INTs
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 KC
17 Week
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
- 5 11/2 IN C @
12/6 vs. DEN
10 vs / .
- 12/30 @ SD
LVH over/under wins
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 11/1 @ SD
With Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki all lost for the season by the end of Week 2, it’s amazing KC won seven games. Statistically the team was on par with a 5–11 team. I like free agency pickups Peyton Hillis and Eric Winston. The Chiefs will make it to eight wins. —M.S.
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
11/12 @ PIT
Week 1 0
We ek 2
9/1 @B 6 UF
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 CI N
Chance of making playoffs
- 12/30 @ DEN
- 9/9 vs. ATL
Chance of winning division
2 k1
- 12/2 vs. CLE
We ek 7
16 ek We - 23 12/ AR C @
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
Week 1 4
13 Week
e We
Win Loss Bye
16 ek We - 3 12/2 D . IN vs
–
- 9/23 IT .P vs
8 ek We - 10/28 KC @
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
3
We ek 15 12 @ /16 OA K
BY E
8 ek We - 8 2 10/ OAK vs.
- 5 11/2 EN .D vs
12/9 @ CLE
k ee W
10/1 @ AT 4 L
2 k1
- 12/2 vs. CAR
BYE
21 X JA
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
23 9/ NO @
We ek 7
11/11 @ BAL
Wee k6
4
/30 9 EN @D
Week 1 0
PREDICTED SCORE
Week 1
3
10/ 14 @T B
9/1 @M 6 IA
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
- 10/7 vs. BAL
/30 9 D vs. S
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/10 vs. SD
4
PREVIEW
AFC West
Week 5
Week 1
AFC West k Wee
2011 record: – Third in AFC West
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Hiring coach Dennis Allen The Raiders haven’t had a winning season since 2002 because Al Davis’ “just win, baby� mentality created an undisciplined culture. Repairing this franchise is a tall order for Allen, who at 39 is the NFL’s youngest coach. He worked under the Saints’ Sean Payton and the Broncos’ John Fox, who resuscitated their teams. We’ll see what he learned.
2012 PROJECTION Palmer
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 62.3% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,187 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 17 14.9 0
5
10
15
Perception: Palmer is not the long-term QB. Reality: His first season with the Raiders was better than the box scores show. Palmer tied for fifth in overall ypa (8.3), tied for ninth in vertical ypa (12.0) and was eighth in stretch-vertical ypa (14.5). Oakland shouldn’t worry too much about his age (33 by season’s end), because his skills aren’t diminishing. With improvement from young WRs, Palmer has a few good years left.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
21 0
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
20
25
WR Juron Criner In a slim draft for the Raiders (they didn’t pick until No. 95 overall), Criner could end up being a steal. The fifth-rounder was Nick Foles’ favorite target at Arizona in part because of his huge hands. He’ll make the tough catch over the middle, which will make him a nice complement to deep threats Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
121
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
2011 record: – Third in NFC East
Two new corners will help lock down a playoff spot.
This time, the results will match expectations.
For all the grief he takes, the surprisingly consistent Romo has averaged 7.5 to 8.2 ypa in each of the past five seasons—and our projection calls for about 7.75 ypa. That’s Pro Bowl caliber.
His 7.7 ypa on short passes ranked 11th among NFL WRs Gained 20-plus yards on 27% of receptions
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends Losing WR Laurent Robinson and TE Martellus Bennett leaves a frightening lack of depth. But the trio of Jason Witten, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are scary good. Witten, once he recovers from a lacerated spleen, is a weapon at TE. Austin was down a bit in 2011, but that might have been related to a lack of post-lockout fitness. Bryant is one of the NFL’s five most talented receivers; now it’s time for him to reach his potential. WORST UNIT Offensive line Tyron Smith will be an elite lineman soon, but he could struggle in Year 2 as he switches from right to left tackle, a position he played sparingly in college. I don’t see a single starting-caliber center or guard, so Tony Romo will face lots of interior pressure, and Dallas will struggle to run up the middle. —MATT WILLIAMSON
122
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 65.3% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,302 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 12 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
We ek 11 11 @ /18 WA S
Chance of winning division
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl - LVH over/under wins
Michael Vick’s 2011 stats: 59.8% comp., 3,303 yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs
JASON BABIN, DE
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
WR Danny Coale Coale is the opposite of some recent Dallas wide receivers: no sizzle, all production. The fifthrounder out of Virginia Tech is no burner, but he finds gaps in coverage and plucks the ball away from his body. That skill set, along with a lack of receiver depth, will have Coale vying for time once his broken foot from this spring is fully healed.
MARG ARET B OWLE S/AP IMAGE S
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Adding Brandon Carr and drafting Morris Claiborne Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan doesn’t like to commit linebackers to help with coverage in his aggressive, blitz-heavy defense. So the corners must lock down their men in cover 0. Both Carr, a former Chief, and Claiborne, the overall No. 6 pick out of LSU, have that ability to excel in single coverage.
Perception: New DBs mean more INTs. Reality: Carr and Claiborne are both ball hawks, no question. Carr picked off four passes for the Chiefs last season, and Claiborne had six INTs at LSU. But worse luck could offset that talent. In 2011, the Cowboys picked off 55.6% of interception opportunities, second highest in the NFL. A reversion to the league-median rate of roughly 40% could offset whatever Carr and Claiborne add.
Chance of making playoffs
Last year’s team was full of new players who didn’t mesh quickly. Combine that with a minus-14 turnover margin and you arrive at 8–8. Still, this year’s number is right on point. If healthy (injuries are always a factor with Michael Vick), this is the NFL’s best roster. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
28
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
2012 PROJECTION Romo
–
Vick has averaged more than 250 passing ypg as an Eagles starter, so it isn’t crazy to believe he can throw for 4,000 yards if he stays healthy. Of course, he’s played all 16 games only once in his nine seasons.
18 sacks ranked 3rd in NFL
2012 PROJECTION
107 yards lost on sacks ranked 4th
Completion percentage
Vick
Average starting QB 62.6% 61.7%
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Defensive line Upgrades will have the Eagles challenging the Giants for the most dominant defensive line in the NFL. Already boasting a dangerous unit, Philadelphia drafted DT Fletcher Cox and DE Vinny Curry. Cox will join Cullen Jenkins, Trent Cole and Babin to form an elite group of pass rushers. The Eagles’ depth is amazing too; I’m particularly high on DT Antonio Dixon as a run stuffer. WORST UNIT Defensive backs It’s tough to find a soft spot on a team with so much talent. Corners remain set with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Nnamdi Asomugha. But safety and slot corner are a worry. FS Nate Allen shows promise when healthy, but second-year SS Jaiquawn Jarrett needs to improve in coverage. —M.W.
TOM DIPACE
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,988 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 12 14.9 0
5
10
15
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Adding LB DeMeco Ryans and drafting Cox The Eagles’ Wide 9 defense excelled on the perimeter in 2011, but teams gouged Philly up the middle. That scheme forces plays inside, pressuring DTs and forcing the MLB to cover more ground. Enter Cox up front: If the powerful rookie tackle can hold ground, Ryans, a two-time Pro Bowler with the Texans, will pile up the tackles.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: DeSean Jackson is the best wide receiver on the Eagles’ roster. Reality: Every time he lines up wide, Jackson is a big play waiting to happen; he’s just not quite as good as the guy lining up opposite him. Last year, only three wideouts—Julio Jones, Victor Cruz and Mike Wallace—accomplished what Jeremy Maclin did: 8.0 ypa or higher on at least 40 short passes and 10.0 or higher vertical ypa.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
26 24.4 0
Week 9
DEZ BRYANT, WR
2012 projected record
- 11/5 @ NO
Tony Romo’s 2011 stats: 66.3% comp., 4,184 yards, 31 TDs, 10 INTs
We ek 15 12 vs. /13 CI N
BY E
17 Week
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
12/9 @ TB
- 12/30 @ NYG
LVH over/under wins
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 11/4 @ ATL
Given the team’s huge fan base, a Dallas over/under line is always a bit inflated. The Cowboys improved their two biggest weaknesses—offensive line and secondary. Still, they look like a .500 team based on the division and their schedule. —PredictionMachine.com
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
11/11 @ PHI
- 12/30 @ WAS
Week 1 0
11/11 vs. DAL
Chance of making playoffs
Week 1 0
Chance of winning division
9/1 vs. 6 BA L
- 9/1 @S 6 EA
We ek 2
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 CL E
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
- 6 11/2 AR .C vs
- 12/2 @ DAL
We ek 7
16 ek We - 23 12/ AS .W vs
– –
2
- 10/ vs. D 14 ET
Week 1 4
13 Week k1
8 ek We - 8 10/2 L AT vs.
2012 projected record
- 3 9/2 RI A @
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ PIT
- 0 9/3 YG vs. N
3
e We
Win Loss Bye
8 ek We - 8 10/2 G NY vs.
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 PI T
PREDICTED SCORE
- 22 11/ AS W . vs
k ee W
2
12/9 @ CIN
10 @ / C
21 R A
k1
- 12/2 vs. PHI
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 12/2 O .N vs
- 9/5 @ NYG
Week 1 4
13 Week
e We
Win Loss Bye/tie
Week 1
- 9/23 B .T vs
4
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/ @ B 14 AL
We ek 2
BYE
k Wee
- 9/9 @ CLE
k ee W
Week 5
Wee k6
4
0/1 1 HI vs. C
PREVIEW
NFC East
Week 5
Week 1
NFC East k Wee
2011 record: – Second in NFC East
20
25
LB Mychal Kendricks The Eagles earned my top overall draft grade, and landing Kendricks at 46 was a key factor. Philly had major problems at linebacker last season, so the versatile Kendricks will start immediately on the strong side—and he’ll never need to come off the field. He is strong against the run, hits hard, chases down plays and excels in coverage.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
123
New York Giants
Washington Redskins
2011 record: – Super Bowl champions
The champs aren’t championship material.
RG3’s time will come. But first, a lesson in losing.
INSIDER’S VIEW
BEST UNIT Defensive line We all know the DEs: Pierre-Paul could soon be the NFL’s best defender, and the rÊsumÊs of Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora speak for themselves. But the Giants DTs (Marvin Austin, Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty and Linval Joseph) don’t get enough credit. Now with Shaun Rogers lost for the season, Austin and Joseph will be asked to dig deeper after just scratching the surface of their vast potential. WORST UNIT Offensive line Run blocking is the biggest issue; the Giants gained 89.2 yards on the ground in 2011, last in the NFL. RG Chris Snee is the only above-average OL, but he will get help as LT Will Beatty returns after missing six games with an eye injury. RT David Diehl has played every spot but center. —M.W.
124
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Completion percentage 63.3% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,501 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 30 24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 17 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 PH I
BYE
Week 1 0
BYE
We ek 11
Led Giants with 23 TFLs and 29 QB hits
Average starting QB
25
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Robert Griffin III’s 2011 stats (at Baylor): 72.4% comp., 4,293 yards, 37 TDs, 6 INTs
LONDON FLETCHER, LB
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
2012 PROJECTION
100-plus tackles in 13 straight seasons
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S TAKE
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER WR Rueben Randle Randle needs some polish, but the second-round pick has good size at 6'2" and the ability to stretch defenses. That may get him an early look as the Giants search for a third receiver to replace Mario Manningham. Randle didn’t post big numbers at LSU, but his QBs didn’t provide him with opportunities. That won’t be a problem with Manning.
WORST UNIT Defensive backs There’s trouble behind the front seven. Josh Wilson is the top DB, even if wildly inconsistent DeAngelo Hall gets more fanfare. Safety is the pressing issue. Tanard Jackson has shown talent in coverage but has been erratic off the field, having served two NFL suspensions (substance abuse). Brandon Meriweather is on his third team in three years; Madieu Williams, Reed Doughty and DeJon Gomes are in the mix by default. —M.W.
DAVID DR APKIN/AP IMAGE S
Rookie QBs who run a lot in college tend to have a lower NFL ypa compared with rookies from pass-heavy systems. But we expect RG3’s talent for the deep ball (14.8 ypa as a Baylor senior) to buck that trend.
224 straight games, tied for most ever (excluding specialists)
BEST UNIT Linebackers Led by Fletcher, the LBs are playmakers in this 3-4 scheme. Amazingly, Fletcher isn’t slowing down at 37, and his leadership is crucial in the development of his young mates. ILB Perry Riley is a breakout candidate, and OLBs Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan provide the necessary edge rush.
EVAN P INKUS/AP IMAGE S
There’s value in betting the over. If the Redskins had started Rex Grossman all of last season, our projections put them at 7–9. And RG3 is an immediate upgrade over Grossman. The minus-14 turnover margin should improve, leading to at least seven wins. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH over/under wins
Signing Martellus Bennett The Giants haven’t had a mainstay at TE since the days of Jeremy Shockey. Bringing in Bennett, who has a lot of Shockey-like qualities, might change that. Immaturity is a concern with the ex-Cowboy, but Mike Pope is among the league’s best TE coaches, and he maximizes talent. Bennett is no Shockey, but if he listens, he could shine.
Perception: The Giants offensive line will prevent a Super Bowl run. Reality: The stats suggest the line will hold its own. The G-Men gave up only 28 sacks (seventh best) despite throwing more vertical aerials (235) than any other team in the NFL. In other words, they gave Manning time to pick apart secondaries. And the team’s good-blocking ypa also shot up late in the season, from 6.2 in Weeks 1-13 to 7.5 after.
Chance of making playoffs
2012 PROJECTION Manning
Chance of winning division
Average starting QB
Griffin
55.1% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,604 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 20 14.9 0
5
10
15
Drafting Robert Griffin III RG3 could be the best—and most permanent— Redskins QB since Sonny Jurgensen. His speed is obvious, but he also has great vision and can complete passes on the run, dimensions lacking in other fleet QBs like Michael Vick. More reasons for optimism: The system is built for his style, and Pierre Garcon gives him a downfield target.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Run blocking will hinder this offense. Reality: Yes, the Redskins were 25th in rushing yards last season, but don’t blame the big boys up front. The line’s 45.7% good-blocking rate was tied for 11th overall. The real issue was Roy Helu’s pedestrian 7.0 good-blocking ypa. Enter a healthy Tim Hightower, who is coming off an ACL tear in 2011. In 2010, when he was in Arizona, his 9.4 GBYPA was best in the NFL.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
22 0
Week 9
Having potent RBs David Wilson and Ahmad Bradshaw means Manning won’t have to throw as often. The INT forecast is in line with his career numbers. Ignore the 25 he threw in 2010—a clear fluke.
Only NFL player with 10-plus sacks and 80-plus tackles
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Eli Manning’s 2011 stats: 61% comp., 4,933 yards, 29 TDs, 16 INTs
JASON PIERRE-PAUL, DE
–
- 11/4 vs. CAR
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
2012 projected record
17 Week
LVH over/under wins
We ek 15 12 @ /16 CL E
- 12/30 vs. DAL
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
Week 9
Which Giants will show up? The team that lost twice to Washington or the one that won six straight down the stretch? The Giants return 21 starters, but you can’t ignore last year’s negative scoring margin and the NFL’s toughest schedule. Another 9–7 record is likely. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
- 11/4 vs. PIT
11/11 @ CIN
17 Week
Week 1 0
We ek 2
9/1 vs. 6 TB
- 12/30 vs. PHI
- 9/5 vs. DAL
Chance of making playoffs
- 2 11/2 AL D @
12/9 vs. BAL
10 @ / N
8 ek We - 8 10/2 PIT @
Chance of winning division
2 k1
- 12/3 vs. NYG
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
16 ek We - 23 12/ HI P @
–
- 9/23 IN .C vs
10/1 vs. M 4 IN
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 vs. ATL
21 G Y
We ek 15 12 @ /16 AT L
8 ek We - 8 10/2 L DA @
- 5 11/2 B .G vs
12/9 vs. NO
10 vs / .
k ee W
e We
2 k1
- 12/3 @ WAS
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 12/2 AL B @
Week 1
Week 1 4
13 Week
4
/30 9 @ TB
- 9/20 AR C @
21 S A W
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/ 1 @S 4 F
9/1 @S 6 TL
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
- 10/7 vs. CLE
PREVIEW
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 @ NO
4
- 30 9/ I @ PH
Win Loss Bye
NFC East
Week 5
Week 1
NFC East k Wee
2011 record: – Fourth in NFC East
20
25
QB Kirk Cousins The Redskins’ draft lacked impact players beyond RG3, but I’m interested to see what they do with Cousins, their controversial fourth-round pick. Grabbing the Michigan State QB wasn’t strange to me, because the Redskins can showcase him in the preseason, then try to deal him to recoup some of the picks they lost in trading for Griffin.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
125
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
2011 record: – Lost in divisional round
The high-powered Pack will stay on the attack.
A Cutler-Marshall reunion gives Chicago hope.
Rodgers
BYE
Week 1 0
INSIDER’S VIEW
BEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends Greg Jennings is the No. 5 WR in our Big Book, and Nelson would excel in any system with his large catch radius and deep speed. TE Jermichael Finley was plagued by drops last season, but his unspoken value is in the room he creates for the other receivers. Slot receiver Randall Cobb has big-play ability and elevates an already deep group. And we haven’t even mentioned Donald Driver and James Jones. Frightening. WORST UNIT Running backs Understandably, Packers opponents shade toward stopping the pass. Even so, the Pack struggle with a pedestrian run game. James Starks has no special qualities but is still a step ahead of 2011 third-rounder Alex Green, who was derailed last October by an ACL tear. Look for Cedric Benson to spur competition. —M.W.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Average starting QB
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,270 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 11 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
Perception: Jordy Nelson will fade. Reality: Nelson’s best metric was his 14.0 ypa facing a CB or safety (second in the NFL). He was one of four wideouts to post 1,000-plus yards on vertical passes, which he did on just 51 vertical targets. The other three needed at least 76.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
34 0
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Drafting LB Nick Perry and DE Jerel Worthy Rookies don’t typically play a major role in defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ schemes, but these two pass rushers should be exceptions. The Packers never really replaced Cullen Jenkins after he joined the Eagles last season, and Worthy, a second-round pick out of Michigan State, is capable of filling that role. Perry—a hybrid OLB/DE out of USC who will play opposite OLB Clay Matthews—will get plenty of sack opportunities.
25
CB Casey Hayward A key storyline during training camp has been Charles Woodson’s time at safety. While Woodson remains one of the NFL’s premier slot corners, Hayward’s ability to cover in traffic and support the run defense will eventually prompt a permanent move to safety for the 15-year veteran.
JIM PRISCHING/AP IMAGES
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Jay Cutler’s 2011 stats: 58% comp., 2,319 yards, 13 TDs, 7 INTs
MATT FORTE, RB
Cutler threw only 432 passes in 2010 and was on pace for 502 in 2011 before his injury. Chicago just isn’t going to throw a lot, even with Marshall, whose Dolphins didn’t pass much in his first year in Miami.
10.7 GBYPA ranked second in the league
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Running backs The Bears prepared for life without Forte by signing Michael Bush. Now, with Forte locked in, they have one of the NFL’s top duos. The two complement each other’s game: Bush excels in short yardage, one of Forte’s few weaknesses, while the presence of the former Raider should keep the versatile Forte fresh. Also, keep an eye on Kahlil Bell, who showed good power while averaging 4.3 ypc last season. WORST UNIT Offensive line New offensive coordinator Mike Tice won’t expose blockers like predecessor Mike Martz did in using seven-step drops with no help. But the Bears still don’t have enough quality linemen. RT Gabe Carimi (dislocated kneecap as a rookie in 2011) won’t fix a unit that has struggled for years. —M.W.
GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES
Trading for WR Brandon Marshall The Cutler-Marshall tandem clicked in Denver, and you have to think the two will rediscover that connection in Chicago. In his three years with the Bears, Cutler hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiver. But while Marshall has the talent to be the go-to option, he can’t be a distraction—no more suspensions, no more arrests.
2012 PROJECTION Cutler
Bears had worst good-blocking rate (37.9%)
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
65.4% 61.7%
The Bears inspired optimism by going 7–3 before injuries to Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and now they’ve added Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush. But we don’t buy the good vibes. The offense is better, but the D was in the bottom half of the NFL in 2011. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH over/under wins
Completion percentage
0%
We ek 11 11 @ /19 SF
We ek 11 11 @ /18 DE T
- 9/1 vs. 3 CH I
We ek 2
When covered by DB, caught ball or drew penalty 70% of time
Week 9
2012 PROJECTION
Chance of making playoffs
- 11/4 @ T EN
Highest stretch-vertical ypa in NFL (30.8)
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
17 Week
Rodgers is the first QB to have two seasons with 200-plus attempts and an INT rate below 1.3%. His attempts are kept down by GB’s pace; only San Diego and Pittsburgh had fewer drives than the Pack’s 168.
2012 projected record
–
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 stats: 68.3% comp., 4,643 yards, 45 TDs, 6 INTs
JORDY NELSON, WR
- 25 11/ IN .M vs
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 GB
10 vs / .
- 12/30 @ DET
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 11/4 vs. ARI
Despite a 15–1 record, Pythagorean win analysis says the Packers should have gone 12–4. It’s unlikely they’ll replicate a plus-24 turnover margin, and successful teams (13-plus wins and a top-four in scoring margin) tend to fall off the next year. —WunderdogSports.com
VEGAS VIBE
Chance of winning division
17 Week
- 9/9 vs. SF
- 12/30 @ MIN
Week 1
2
12/9 @ MIN
8 ek We - 10/28 R CA vs.
Chance of making playoffs
k1
- 12/2 vs. SEA
Chance of winning division
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
- 23 L 9/ . ST vs
We ek 7
16 ek We - 23 12/ RI A @
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
LVH over/under wins
126
16 ek We - 3 12/2 EN .T vs
–
BYE
2012 projected record
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ JAX
22 T DE
We ek 15 12 @ /16 CH I
8 ek We - 8 10/2 X JA vs.
- 5 11/2 YG N @
2
PREDICTED SCORE
Win Loss Bye
k1
12/9 vs. DE T
10 @ /
k ee W
e We
- 12/2 vs. MIN
21 L ST
PREDICTED SCORE
Week 1 4
13 Week
24 9/ S EA @
We ek 7
11/11 vs. HOU
4
0/1 1 AL @D
Week 1 0
3
10/ 1 @H 4 OU
9/1 @G 3 B
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
- 10/7 @ IND
/30 9 O vs. N
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 vs. IND
4
PREVIEW
NFC North
Week 5
Week 1
NFC North k Wee
2011 record: – Third in NFC North
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 61.0% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,720 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 25 24.4 0
10
20
40
16 14.9 5
10
15
Perception: Chicago has a shutdown run D. Reality: The Bears had the fifth-best rushing defense in the NFL last year at 96.4 yards per game. But don’t confuse this D with the Monsters of the Midway. Chicago allowed 7.8 good-blocking ypa last year, 23rd in the NFL. Once an opposing team creases the Bears’ defensive front, their aging LBs—Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have played 21 combined seasons—struggle to fill the holes.
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER 30
Interceptions
0
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
20
25
WR Alshon Jeffery Jeffery’s yo-yoing size (6'3", 216) and suspect speed (4.5) dropped him to the second round, but tape shows he was a perpetual mismatch at South Carolina, making grabs even when blanketed by top corners. A welcome sight for Cutler, who’s tired of receivers who can’t make a play on the ball.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
127
Detroit Lions
Minnesota Vikings
2011 record: – Lost in wild-card game
A potent offense props up a rickety defense.
Too many holes to Ponder the playoffs.
2012 PROJECTION Stafford
0%
WORST UNIT Defensive backs The farther from the line you move, the weaker this defense gets. Safety Louis Delmas is at his best in the box. The pass D will be even worse after losing CB Eric Wright to Tampa Bay. Detroit will force corners Chris Houston and Bill Bentley to play extremely conservatively to eliminate big plays. —M.W.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
50%
75%
100%
Yards
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends If this group featured Calvin Johnson and a bunch of guys who had never played football, it still might be a strength. But there is plenty of other talent on hand. Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler cause matchup problems in double-TE sets. Adding WR Ryan Broyles to Titus Young and Nate Burleson gives Matthew Stafford an impressive group of targets.
25%
4,310 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Touchdowns 29 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 21 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
Perception: The Lions can’t cover anyone. Reality: I respectfully disagree with my colleague Matt Williamson. Last year, Detroit tied for eighth in vertical ypa allowed (10.2) and was sixth in stretch-vertical ypa allowed (11.0)—despite the injuries that caused leading CB Chris Houston to post a subpar 8.1 ypa. That says a lot about the job coordinator Gunther Cunningham is doing.
25
WR Ryan Broyles Broyles was a first-rounder before a torn ACL last November hurt the Oklahoma senior’s stock. So it raised eyebrows when the Lions—already flush with pass catchers—grabbed him in the second. Broyles was off the PUP list after camp opened, a sign that they think he’ll contribute right away.
GREG TROTT/AP IMAGES
BY E
We ek 11
11/11 vs. DET
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Christian Ponder’s 2011 stats: 54.3% comp., 1,853 yards, 13 TDs, 13 INTs
Releasing CB Aaron Berry It’s not easy to change a negative culture once it takes root. The young Lions were headed down that path, with players making news for the wrong reasons. The Lions front office sent a message by terminating Berry’s contract after his second arrest of the summer (simple assault charges for allegedly brandishing a gun in a traffic incident, after a suspicion of DUI arrest).
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24.4
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
ADRIAN PETERSON, RB
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
61.1% 61.7%
Chance of making playoffs
The Vikes weren’t as bad as their three wins suggest; Pythagorean analysis shows they should have won five. They were 2–9 in games decided by seven points or fewer, mostly due to a rookie QB and pure bad luck. If Adrian Peterson contributes, they’ll go over six wins. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
LVH over/under wins
Average starting QB
Completion percentage
Chance of winning division
Week 1 0
11/11 @ MIN
Week 1 0
Led league in vertical receiving yards (1,282)
- 9/1 @I 6 ND
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 GB
- 9/1 @ 6 SF
We ek 2
11.1 ypa was tops among WRs with 8-plus targets a game
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
Had good blocking on 54.3% of rushes (2nd highest in NFL)
2012 PROJECTION
4.7 ypc (T-6th among RBs with 200 attempts)
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S VIEW
BEST UNIT Running backs Peterson returns from ACL surgery, but even if he isn’t quite himself to start the season, he’s still an all-time great and in his prime. No one in the league is better. The Vikings also have strong depth behind him. Toby Gerhart has better feet and elusiveness than he is given credit for. WORST UNIT Defensive backs This might actually be the worst group at any position in the NFL. And that’s a huge problem, since Minnesota plays six games a year against Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler. Antoine Winfield is still a quality corner, but he’s 35. Chris Cook could become a good CB in Minnesota’s cover 2, but there’s a reason the Vikes took three DBs in the draft— including two safeties—who could start as rookies. —M.W.
BOB DONNAN/US PRESSWIRE
Most QBs see their biggest improvement between their first and second seasons. Ponder was 0.8 of a yard per attempt below the NFL average last year and should make up about half that difference in 2012.
Ponder
Average starting QB
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,546 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Signing TE John Carlson The biggest key to Ponder’s development is obviously Peterson’s health. But signing Carlson should help too. Carlson has missed the preseason recovering from a sprained MCL, but when healthy he’ll team up with fellow tight end Kyle Rudolph to provide a pair of reliable targets on a team that lacks elite pass catchers. No one will ever confuse them with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, but they’re solid.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
60.2% 61.7% 0%
Week 9
Can you say regression? Not only did Stafford play all 16 games for the first time, his ypa jumped from 5.9 in 2009-10 to 7.6 in 2011. Historically, few QBs have sustained similar extreme gains.
–
- 11/4 @ SEA
CALVIN JOHNSON, WR
2012 projected record
17 Week
Matthew Stafford’s 2011 stats: 63.5% comp., 5,038 yards, 41 TDs, 16 INTs
- 25 11/ HI C @
We ek 15 12 @ /16 ST L
- 12/30 vs. GB
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 11/4 @ JAX
The Lions won 10 and have a young star at QB and the game’s best WR. Yet the over/under is only nine. Why? Their luck will run out after an NFL-record four comeback wins of 13-plus points and an unusually healthy season (fourth-fewest games lost to injury). —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
- 9/9 vs. STL
- 12/30 vs. CHI
Week 1
12/9 vs. CH I
10 vs / .
8 ek We - 5 10/2 TB vs.
Chance of making playoffs
2 k1
- 12/2 @ GB
Chance of winning division
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 12/2 U HO @
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
LVH over/under wins
128
16 ek We - 2 12/2 TL .A vs
–
- 23 9/ . SF vs
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/1 @W 4 AS
We ek 15 12 @ /16 AR I
8 ek We - 8 10/2 A SE vs.
- 2 11/2 OU .H vs
12/9 @ GB
10 @ /
k ee W
Wee k6
- 10/7 vs. TEN
21 I AR
2 k1
- 12/2 vs. IND
We ek 7
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
4
/30 9 ET @D
- 23 9/ TEN @
22 I CH
PREDICTED SCORE
3
10/ @ P 14 HI
We ek 2
BYE
k Wee
- 9/9 vs. JAX
k ee W
Week 5
Wee k6
4
/30 9 IN vs. M
PREVIEW
NFC North
Week 5
Week 1
NFC North k Wee
2011 record: – Fourth in NFC North
4,000
5,000
Perception: A healthy Adrian Peterson is the NFL’s top RB. Reality: Peterson hasn’t finished higher than fifth in rushing since 2008. He failed to exploit good blocking in that stretch, ranking 27th, 22nd and 21st in GBYPA because he doesn’t read defensive fronts well. Sorry, Insider, AD is not the best.
Touchdowns 20
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 16 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
S Harrison Smith The first-round pick from Notre Dame is an underrated athlete whose versatility in coverage makes him a no-brainer to start in Week 1. Throw in his ability to help out in run support and he’s an immediate upgrade to the Vikings secondary.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
129
New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
2011 record: – Lost in divisional round
No D or distraction can slow this offense.
On the move, one rush at a time.
- 10/7 vs. SD
11/11 vs. ATL
Week 1 0
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
25%
50%
75%
5,130 3,844.4 1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
39 24.4 10
20
30
40
Interceptions 13 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl - LVH over/under wins
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Hiring defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo With head coach Sean Payton serving a seasonlong suspension and assistant Joe Vitt missing the first six games, the Saints will benefit from the leadership of Spagnuolo. The former Rams head coach brings professionalism and stability when it’s most needed. The fact that he’ll improve a defense that dropped from fourth to 24th in the NFL in yards allowed is almost a bonus. In his last stint as a DC, the Giants jumped from 25th to seventh in total defense in his first year.
Perception: Marques Colston isn’t a deep threat. Reality: Brees proves it doesn’t take a cannon to complete long passes; Colston proves it doesn’t take top-end speed to catch them. Despite a 40 time north of 4.5, his 14.1 vertical ypa ranked 13th in the NFL last season.
Touchdowns
0
Carolina’s offensive and defensive production was more indicative of a seven- or eight-win team. The Panthers suffered a ton of injuries and were 2–6 in games decided by one score. Their nondivisional foes are some of the worst in the league. We like the over. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
25
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER WR Nick Toon Seven different Saints caught 30-plus passes in 2011; only one was a first-round pick (Meachem). Fourth-rounder Toon has been slowed by a foot injury, but he wasn’t a burner at Wisconsin. The son of former Jets WR Al Toon runs great routes, finds holes in zones and catches everything.
MARCIO JOSE SANCHEZ/AP IMAGES
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Cam Newton’s 2011 stats: 60% comp., 4,051 yards, 21 TDs, 17 INTs
DEANGELO WILLIAMS, RB
Carolina will win more, which means better rate stats but smaller numbers for Newton. The tough part is predicting rush TDs for a guy who set the all-time QB record with 14 as a rookie. We’ll go with 10.
11.2 good-blocking ypa led the league
2012 PROJECTION
5.1 career ypc is tied for 21st all time
Completion percentage
Newton
Average starting QB 64.3% 61.7%
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE 100%
Yards
0
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 TB
We ek 11 11 / 1 @ OA 8 K
- 9/1 @C 6 AR
We ek 2
WORST UNIT Defensive line There’s no glaringly weak group here, but the D-line does have questions. DE Will Smith is suspended for the first four games, and DT Sedrick Ellis has been an underwhelming pro. —M.W.
67.8% 61.7%
INSIDER’S VIEW
BEST UNIT Running backs The Panthers have the best stable of backs in the NFL. Jonathan Stewart is the total package. I would love to see what he could do as a full-time back in this offense; I think he’d rank among the three or four best RBs in football. Williams mixes excellent vision with the ability to make tacklers miss. Add in Mike Tolbert as a hammer/receiver and the Panthers have unmatched depth with star power to boot. WORST UNIT Defensive line The Panthers don’t ask a lot of their DTs—just eat space so their great LBs can run and hit. Ron Edwards fits the mold, but Terrell McClain and Sione Fua did little to impress as rookies. At least Carolina boasts solid DEs: Charles Johnson had a team-high nine sacks, and Greg Hardy has all the tools. —M.W.
TYLER K AUFMAN/CAL SPORT MEDIA
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,627 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Week 9
BEST UNIT Running backs We would have listed “offensive skill positions� if given the option, especially because Jimmy Graham is just starting to realize his potential. But the backs edge the receivers for top marks because the Saints lost Robert Meachem, and a healthy Mark Ingram can still be an elite feature back. Sproles is the premier dual threat in the NFL, and Pierre Thomas offers a blend of Ingram’s power and Sproles’ versatility. When bruiser Chris Ivory is your fourth back, that means you’re loaded.
Completion percentage
0%
- 11/4 @ WAS
INSIDER’S VIEW
Average starting QB
Chance of making playoffs
17 Week
7.6 yards per touch led RBs with 1,000-plus yards from scrimmage
2012 PROJECTION Brees
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
- 12/30 @ NO
No QB has ever topped 4,800 passing yards in two straight seasons. But Brees can do it with Sproles, a dominant TE in Graham and a fleet of wide receivers who make double-teaming dicey.
111 targets were most among RBs
–
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Drew Brees’ 2011 stats: 71.2% comp., 5,476 yards, 46 TDs, 14 INTs
DARREN SPROLES, RB
Week 9
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
- 11/5 vs. PHI
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
12 @ /16 SD
2012 projected record
Chance of winning division
17 Week
In 2011, the Saints were one of the league’s healthiest teams, had the top net-point differential and won 13 games. You have to wonder if their season was too good to repeat. The loss of Sean Payton makes them even tougher to figure. —WunderdogSports.com
VEGAS VIBE
- 12/30 vs. CAR
- 9/9 vs. WAS
We ek 15
8 ek We - 10/28 I CH @
12/9 vs. ATL
10 vs / .
Chance of making playoffs
- 6 11/2 HI P @
- 12/2 @ KC
Chance of winning division
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
2 k1
We ek 7
16 ek We - 23 12/ AK .O vs
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
LVH over/under wins
130
16 ek We - 3 12/2 AL D @
–
- 9/20 YG .N vs
BYE
2012 projected record
PREDICTED SCORE
8 ek We - 8 10/2 N DE @
- 25 11/ F .S vs
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 TB
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 vs. SEA
21 L DA
12/9 @ NYG
10 @ /
2 k1
- 11/29 @ ATL
k ee W
21 TB
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
23 9/ . KC vs
We ek 7
11/11 vs. DEN
BYE
Week 1 0
PREDICTED SCORE
Week 1
3
4
/30 9 L @ AT
9/1 vs. 6 NO
k ee W
k Wee
We ek 2
/30 9 @ GB
Week 5
Wee k6
- 9/9 @ TB
4
PREVIEW
NFC South
Week 5
Week 1
NFC South k Wee
2011 record: – Third in NFC South
5,000
Signing Tolbert Stewart and Williams needed some help after years of wear and tear, and they’ll get it from Tolbert. His addition, along with the presence of Newton, gives the Panthers the most versatile ground game in the league. Spread option, triple option, Wildcat, I-formation, split backs—you name it, they can run it. And good luck stopping it.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE Perception: The Panthers need an upgrade opposite WR Steve Smith. Reality: Don’t let Brandon LaFell’s unremarkable 613 receiving yards from 2011 fool you. With his home-run-hitting ability, he has the makings of a very good complementary wide receiver. His 14.7 vertical ypa was tied for sixth among WRs with at least 30 vertical targets, and it led to an 11.4 overall ypa, also tied for sixth in the NFL.
Touchdowns 24 24.4 0
10
20
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER 30
40
Interceptions 14 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
WR Joe Adams The Panthers had to address their defense early in the draft after fielding one of the league’s worst last season. But they also needed receiver depth. Adams, a fourth-rounder out of Arkansas, should help. He’s a true slot receiver with the ability to make big plays.
09/03/2012 ESPN The Magazine
131
Atlanta Falcons
2011 record: – Lost in wild-card game
Matt Ryan steps up, but the team steps back.
PREVIEW
NFC South
Week 5 k Wee
4
- /30 9 AR vs. C
k ee W PREDICTED SCORE
- 9/23 D S @
- 25 / 11 TB @
2012 projected record
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Matt Ryan’s 2011 stats: 61.3% comp., 4,177 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs
RODDY WHITE, WR 171 targets led the league Ranked third in the NFL with 83 vertical targets
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Wide receivers/tight ends White is still one of the NFL’s best receivers, Julio Jones is knocking on stardom’s door and the ageless Tony Gonzalez is coming off his top season in Atlanta. Drops were an issue for White and Jones, but Gonzalez catches everything. Jones accounted for 16.8% of Atlanta’s offense as a rookie; that should only grow thanks to his size (6'3", 220), power, pure speed and run-after-the-catch skills. The only issue is depth. WORST UNIT Offensive line Two issues here: One, the line lacks a blocker who can dominate. And two, LT Sam Baker is a massive liability in protection; QB Matt Ryan was hit 84 times in 2011, seventh most in the league. At least guard Peter Konz fell in the Falcons’ lap in the second round of April’s draft. —M.W.
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Ryan should feast on the league’s easiest projected schedule of opposing pass defenses. Add a more experienced Jones and you have a simple recipe for statistical improvement.
2012 PROJECTION Ryan
Average starting QB
Week 9
LVH over/under wins
- 11/4 vs. DAL
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
17 Week
This team will not win 10 games again, even if the schedule is easier than last season’s. The Falcons were unusually healthy in 2011 and had a plus-8 turnover margin. As their luck evens out in a solid division, they will take a step back. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
BY E
- 12/30 vs. TB
11/11 @ NO
Week 1 0
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 NY G
–
We ek 11 11 / 1 vs. 8 AR I
9/1 vs. 7 DE N
12/9 @ CAR
8 ek We - 8 10/2 I PH @
We ek 2
2
- 11/29 vs. NO
We ek 7
16 ek We - 2 12/2 ET D @
- 9/9 @ KC
k1
10/ vs. O 14 AK
Week 1 4
13 Week
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ WAS
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Hiring defensive coordinator Mike Nolan Nolan is a very good coordinator—the Dolphins improved from 22nd to sixth in total defense after hiring him in 2010. But his impact in Atlanta may not be as immediate. Nolan lacks the personnel to play his preferred 3-4 scheme, so the Falcons will stick with their traditional 4-3 for now. Credit Nolan for not forcing the transition. We tried that shift in Indy last season, and without the proper players to execute the 3-4, we really struggled.
Completion percentage
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
62.7% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,216 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Perception: Atlanta can’t stop the run. Reality: Yes, the Falcons’ 7.9 good-blocking ypa allowed was 24th in the NFL, but the team also had a 37.4 good-blocking rate allowed, second in the league. If the linebackers, led by OLB Sean Weatherspoon, can keep teams from ripping off long gains, the Falcons will have a top-10 rush D.
Touchdowns 31
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 15 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
DE Jonathan Massaquoi The Falcons’ draft didn’t begin until pick No. 55 when they grabbed Konz. But keep an eye out for Massaquoi, a fifth-rounder from Troy. If he shows the kind of explosiveness he displayed as a sophomore two years ago (13.5 sacks), he could emerge late in the fall.
TOM DIPACE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 record: – Fourth in NFC South
New coach, new line ‌ familiar results.
NFC South
Week 5 k Wee
k ee W
BYE
2
12/9 vs. PH I
2012 projected record
We ek 11 11 / @ 18 CA R
–
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of making playoffs
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl - LVH over/under wins
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
Josh Freeman’s 2011 stats: 62.8% comp., 3,592 yards, 16 TDs, 22 INTs
CARL NICKS, G Did not miss a snap last year (1,177 plays)
2012 PROJECTION
Has started 61 straight games
Completion percentage
INSIDER’S TAKE
BEST UNIT Offensive line Only the Eagles threw more often on first and 10 than the Bucs. That will change this season largely because of the O-line. Greg Schiano believes in a physical, run-first approach, and the Bucs didn’t invest huge money in Nicks and draft RB Doug Martin to air it out. Adding Nicks from the Saints, maybe the NFL’s best guard, allows Jeremy Zuttah to slide to center, a better spot for him. Right tackle remains the line’s only weakness. WORST UNIT Linebackers The Bucs’ linebackers could be a disaster again. Mason Foster and Quincy Black are carryovers from a unit that had the NFL’s worst run D in 2011. Foster struggled to fill Barrett Ruud’s MLB role, and if he doesn’t contribute more in run support in his second season, TB will have another long year on D. —M.W.
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In 2011, Freeman managed the rare feat of raising his INT rate by at least 2% while also raising his completion percentage. The 13 QBs who’ve done this since 1978 have averaged 7.3 fewer INTs the next season.
ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,777 3,844.4 1,000
Hiring coach Greg Schiano The former Rutgers boss brings professionalism to a team badly in need of it. There are building blocks on defense; sixth-year DT Amobi Okoye should flourish in coordinator Bill Sheridan’s 4-3 system. The addition of WR Vincent Jackson from San Diego will instantly upgrade the offense, but the real key will be whether Schiano can get QB Freeman to fulfill his potential.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
59.6% 61.7%
0
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Average starting QB
Freeman
0%
Week 9
The Bucs could’ve been worse than 4–12 in 2011. They were last in points allowed (30.9) and 27th in points scored (17.9). But they’ll benefit from a new coach (typically worth two or three wins) and a tame schedule. That should lead to at least six W’s. —W.S.
VEGAS VIBE
- 11/4 @ OAK
11/11 vs. SD
17 Week
Week 1 0
- 12/30 @ ATL
- 9/9 vs. CAR
We ek 15 12 @ /16 NO
10 vs / .
8 ek We - 5 10/2 MIN @
- 25 / 11 . ATL s v
16 ek We - 3 12/2 TL .S vs
9/1 @N 6 YG
k1
- 12/2 @ DEN
We ek 7
e We
We ek 2
Week 1 4
13 Week
Chance of winning division
Week 1
- 10/1 vs. K 4 C
21 O N
PREDICTED SCORE
3
- 9/23 AL D @
Wee k6
4
- /30 9 AS vs. W
Win Loss Bye
PREVIEW
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Perception: Doug Martin is a ROY favorite Reality: Tampa traded up to take the much-hyped Martin with the 31st pick overall, but his college stats don’t justify his buzz. He never rushed for more than 1,300 yards at Boise State. And his 4.9 ypc in 2011 was tied for 25th among the 47 FBS RBs with 200-plus attempts, which is unimpressive considering the Broncos’ weak schedule.
Touchdowns 20
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24.4 10
0
20
30
40
Interceptions 15 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
LB Lavonte David The Bucs cleaned up in Round 1, adding Martin and S Mark Barron, but neither is my favorite pick. At No. 58, they stole David out of Nebraska. His great crime was simply being 225 pounds. Well, he’s now 233 with the speed to remind fans of Derrick Brooks, who was once too small as well.
TOM DIPACE
San Francisco 49ers
2011 record: – Lost in NFC championship
With a D this good, the QB is good enough.
NFC West
Week 5 k Wee
4
k ee W
We ek 11 11 / 1 vs. 9 CH I
9/1 vs. 6 DE T
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
LVH over/under wins
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Alex Smith’s 2011 stats: 61.3% comp., 3,144 yards, 17 TDs, 5 INTs
PATRICK WILLIS, LB
Don’t expect Smith’s stellar 1.1% INT rate to regress much. He had only three potential INTs dropped by defenders over the past two seasons and had the lowest rate of passes defensed (5.2%) in 2011.
12 passes defensed, second among LBs
2012 PROJECTION
Played 92.4% of defensive plays
Completion percentage
Smith
Average starting QB 60.7% 61.7%
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Linebackers The 49ers have the NFL’s best LB crew—and it isn’t even close. Patrick Willis is making a case to be considered one of the greats at ILB. NaVorro Bowman diagnoses plays quickly and gets to his target with aggressiveness. Phenom Aldon Smith, who’s already SF’s top pass rusher (14 sacks in 2011), should take Parys Haralson’s starting spot at OLB. WORST UNIT Offensive line This is a tale of two sides. LT Joe Staley is light on his feet, LG Mike Iupati is a mauler and Jonathan Goodwin is an above-average center, especially in run blocking. But the right side is a big concern. RT Anthony Davis, a former first-rounder, hasn’t produced in two seasons. And RG is such a mess that the 49ers opened camp with four in the mix. —M.W.
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0%
25%
50%
100%
3,422 3,844.4 1,000
2,000
3,000
Signing RB Brandon Jacobs Jacobs hasn’t been an every-down back for quite some time—he started just 11 games for the Giants in the past two seasons. But he’s the perfect fit in SF; the Niners now have a suitable partner for Frank Gore. Kendall Hunter wasn’t a consistent answer, and without a complement to Gore, the offense becomes extremely limited. Coach Jim Harbaugh wants to continue last year’s run-heavy attack; Jacobs makes that approach more viable.
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
75%
Yards
0
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
BYE
The 49ers, a Super Bowl favorite? There’s been enough action on SF at some books to make that the case, which is crazy. It’s more likely that Alex Smith won’t have another career year, and the D won’t force an NFL-best 38 turnovers again. —PredictionMachine.com
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
11/11 vs. STL
Week 1 0
We ek 2
–
- 12/30 @ ARI
- 9/9 @ GB
2012 projected record
8 ek We - 10/29 I AR @
- 25 11/ O N @
We ek 15 12 @ /16 NE
12/9 vs. MIA
10 vs / .
e We
2 k1
- 12/2 @ STL
16 ek We - 3 12/2 EA S @
Week 1
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
- 23 9/ MIN @
10/ vs. N 14 YG
18 A SE
PREDICTED SCORE
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 vs. BUF
- 9/30 YJ @N
Win Loss Bye
PREVIEW
4,000
5,000
Perception: Alex Smith is merely a game manager. Reality: Smith ranked in the top 11 in both shortand stretch-vertical passes last year—without ideal WRs. Now Mario Manningham, a revitalized Randy Moss and rookie A.J. Jenkins are in SF, meaning Smith could soon be a top-10 QB.
Touchdowns 23 24.4 0
10
20
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER 30
40
Interceptions 11 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
RB LaMichael James The Niners have a strong trio of runners in Gore, Jacobs and Hunter, but none has James’ home run element. The second-rounder out of Oregon offers legit sprinter’s speed. He has the versatility to catch passes on the edge, run inside and make big plays in the return game.
TOM DIPACE
Seattle Seahawks
2011 record: – Third in NFC West
An anonymous D will demand recognition.
PREVIEW
NFC West
Week 5 k Wee
4
/30 9 TL @S
k ee W
–
Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Matt Flynn’s 2011 stats: 67.3% comp., 518 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs
CHRIS CLEMONS, DE
Flynn averaged 365 passing yards per start in Green Bay. Seattle’s QBs averaged 194 passing yards per game last season. When it comes to this forecast, the Seahawks’ past outweighs Flynn’s past.
Tied for 11th with 11 sacks last season
2012 PROJECTION Flynn
8.2 yards per sack was second among those with 10-plus sacks
INSIDER’S VIEW
BEST UNIT Defensive line Seattle added to a strength this offseason by nabbing former Titans DE/DT Jason Jones in free agency and drafting Bruce Irvin out of West Virginia. Jones is a great interior pass rusher, and Irvin’s quick-twitch athleticism could cause huge problems for OTs. It’s a deep group too: DT Brandon Mebane, DE Red Bryant, DT Alan Branch and DE Clemons are all underrated. WORST UNIT Offensive line Health is a key concern, compounded by depth issues. Seattle gave up 50 sacks in 2011 (29th in the NFL) with a patchwork line. James Carpenter is still recovering from an ACL injury, and Russell Okung—who could be an elite LT—can’t stay healthy. And while center Max Unger is solid, the rest of the group are grinders with average-at-best ability. —M.W.
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Week 9
LVH over/under wins
- 11/4 vs. MIN
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
17 Week
QB Matt Flynn should be the starter, but a lack of clarity at that spot holds everything else up. The defensive talent is on par with the NFL’s elite; Seattle gave up just 19.7 ppg in 2011, and its per-play stats suggest that number could have been even better. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
- 12/30 vs. STL
11/11 vs. NYJ
Week 1 0
to)
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore.
BY E
We ek 11
9/1 vs. 6 DA L
We ek 2
2012 projected record
8 ek We - 8 10/2 T DE @
We ek 15 12 / @ 1 (in BU 6 Tor F on
- 5 11/2 IA M @
12/9 vs. AR I
10 @ /
2 k1
- 12/2 @ CHI
We ek 7
16 ek We - 3 2 12/ SF . vs
- 9/9 @ ARI
Week 1 4
13 Week
/24 B 9 .G vs
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1
- 10/ 1 vs. N 4 E
18 SF
PREDICTED SCORE
3
Wee k6
- 10/7 @ CAR
Average starting QB
Signing QB Flynn Flynn should bring stability and great gamemanagement skills to a position that was a problem area for Seattle last season. I expect Flynn to win the job over rookie Russell Wilson and former starter Tarvaris Jackson. And while it’d be crazy to expect him to repeat his output from last season when he filled in for Aaron Rodgers in Week 17 (480 yards, 6 TDs), don’t underestimate the improvement Flynn will provide under center.
Completion percentage
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
60.3% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,329 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Perception: Brandon Browner is their top CB. Reality: Browner may have parlayed six picks into a Pro Bowl berth, but his 9.4 ypa allowed was tied for 65th in the NFL. Meanwhile, opposite him, Richard Sherman gave up just 5.2 ypa (tied for sixth) and added four interceptions. He was the better player last season—by far.
Touchdowns 19
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 17 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
RB Robert Turbin I was tempted to pick Wilson, who has a great chance to succeed, but I foresee bigger initial impact from Turbin. If Marshawn Lynch is suspended for his offseason transgressions, the powerful rookie, who ran for more than 1,500 yards last year at Utah State, should fill the RB void.
DAVID STLUK A/AP IMAGE S
Arizona Cardinals
2011 record: – 2nd in NFC West
Kolb isn’t as bad as he looks, but the team is.
PREVIEW
NFC West
Week 5 k Wee
4
/30 9 IA vs. M
k ee W
–
We ek 11 11 / 1 @ 8 AT L
- 9/1 @N 6 E
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
LVH over/under wins
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Kevin Kolb’s 2011 stats: 57.7% comp., 1,955 yards, 9 TDs, 8 INTs
LARRY FITZGERALD, WR
Yeah, 4,000 yards from Kolb sounds insane. But if he can win the starting job—and stay healthy—it really isn’t. We’re actually projecting fewer yards per attempt (7.61) than he had last year (7.73).
Ranked fourth in NFL with 152 targets
2012 PROJECTION Kolb
His 1,447 receiving and penalty yards was fourth among WRs
INSIDER’S VIEW BEST UNIT Wide receivers Kevin Kolb and John Skelton may not be reliable QBs, but they have a bevy of top targets. Fitzgerald is a future Hall of Famer, and rookie Michael Floyd has excellent size (6'3", 225) and body control to go with solid speed. Behind them, the quick Andre Roberts excels as a route runner, while Early Doucet has more possession skills. And watch out for TE Rob Housler’s rare combo of height (6'5") and speed (4.55). WORST UNIT Offensive line There’s a reason Arizona drafted three linemen, albeit in the fourth round or later. The pass protection was porous in 2011 (54 sacks allowed, second worst), and while Kolb held the ball too long, personnel was a big issue. LT Levi Brown is a lousy pass blocker; he gave up 11.5 sacks alone last season. —M.W.
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Promoting assistants Mike Miller and John McNulty Whoever wins the competition between Kolb and Skelton simply must do better. Part of the onus for that falls on new offensive coordinator Miller and QB coach McNulty. Miller moves up from his old role of passing-game coordinator, while McNulty previously handled the receivers. Bottom line: If they don’t solve the QB issue, everything else becomes irrelevant.
Average starting QB
Completion percentage
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
61.9% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 4,047 3,844.4 0
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
- 11/4 @ GB
Going 8–8 last season wasn’t that bad, considering the mess the Cardinals had at quarterback. We liked their draft with WR Michael Floyd and RT Bobby Massie, though, and even with just slight improvement at QB the Cards should reach seven wins. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
BYE
Week 1 0
We ek 2
2012 projected record
- 12/30 @ SF
- 9/9 vs. SEA
We ek 15 12 vs. /16 DE T
10 @ /
8 ek We - 10/29 SF vs.
- 5 11/2 TL .S vs
12/9 @ SEA
16 ek We - 3 12/2 HI .C vs
Week 1
2
k1
- 12/2 @ NYJ
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
- 3 9/2 HI .P vs
10/ vs. B 14 UF
21 N MI
PREDICTED SCORE
3
Wee k6
- 10/4 @ STL
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Perception: The D can’t get its hands on the ball. Reality: Only five teams had fewer INTs, but bad hands were the real problem. Arizona made just five “tip drill� picks—plays in which the ball is up for grabs off a tip or drop—second lowest in the NFL. Adrian Wilson (4 dropped INTs) and Kerry Rhodes (3) were the biggest culprits.
Touchdowns 23 24.4 0
10
20
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER 30
40
Interceptions 21 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
RT Bobby Massie Arizona has shunned drafting linemen for years, and it shows. But in Massie, the Cardinals got first-round talent with the 112th pick. While he could have used another year of experience, few 6'6", 316-pound humans move as well as he can. The RT also started 29 straight games at Ole Miss.
TOM DIPACE ; PAG E 142: B ILL KO STR OUN/AP IMAGE S
St. Louis Rams
2011 record: – 4th in NFC West
Enter Jeff Fisher. Hope is a few steps behind.
PREVIEW
NFC West
Week 5 k Wee
4
/30 9 EA vs. S
2012 projected record
–
Wisdom provided by the big brains and powerful computers of AccuScore. Chance of winning division
Chance of making playoffs
LVH over/under wins
FBO POCKET PROJECTOR
BILL POLIAN’S KEY MOVE
Sam Bradford’s 2011 stats: 53.5% comp., 2,164 yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs
CHRIS LONG, DE 13 sacks ranked fourth among defensive linemen
Bradford’s 2011 interception total of six in 10 games was artificially low—he had six likely picks dropped. His 6.1 ypa, however, was not misleading. It was tied for the third-worst mark in the NFL.
BEST UNIT Defensive line Long just signed a lucrative four-year extension for a reason: He’s quickly becoming one of the best DEs in football. And Robert Quinn has the ability to be even more dangerous off the edge. That tells you all you need to know about this constantly improving group. William Hayes is an excellent third DE whose run-stopping ability complements Quinn well. WORST UNIT Linebackers Besides MLB James Laurinaitis, there isn’t a single startingcaliber player in this corps—and that’s why the Rams had the second-worst rush D in the NFL (152.1 ypg). It’s a shame, because Laurinaitis has developed into a solid all-around player and deserves better support. Jo-Lonn Dunbar is the best of the OLBs, but none of them has much of a ceiling. —M.W.
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ESPN The Magazine 09/03/2012
Signing CB Cortland Finnegan Finnegan is a Jeff Fisher guy to the core and will lead the defense with his toughness, smarts and aggressiveness. Those qualities—even more than his coverage skills—should help the veteran corner make a major impression on a young team that has more talent than people realize.
2012 PROJECTION Bradford
Had a streak of six straight games with a sack last season
INSIDER’S VIEW
Week 9
LVH SuperBook odds of winning Super Bowl -
BYE
Since 2002, roughly two-thirds of teams with a preseason over/under of six wins or fewer have hit the over. With new coach Jeff Fisher, former overall first pick Sam Bradford and improved offensive and defensive lines, the Rams should continue the trend. —P.M.
VEGAS VIBE
17 Week
- 11/11 @ SF
- 12/30 @ SEA
Week 1 0
(in
We ek 11 11 vs. /18 NY J
9/1 vs. 6 WA S
12 / vs. 16 MI N
8 ek We - 8 /2 0 1 NE ) vs.London
We ek 2
We ek 15
10 vs / .
5 11/2 RI A @
12/9 @ BUF
16 ek We - 3 12/2 B T @
- 9/9 @ DET
2
k1
- 12/2 vs. SF
e We
Win Loss Bye
Week 1 4
13 Week
We ek 7
23 9/ CHI @
10/1 @M 4 IA
21 B G
PREDICTED SCORE
Week 1
3
k ee W
Wee k6
- 10/4 vs. ARI
Average starting QB
Completion percentage 62.5% 61.7% 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Yards 3,649 3,844.4 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
KC JOYNER’S COUNTERINTELLIGENCE
Perception: Steven Jackson has lost a step. Reality: Jackson’s 4.4 ypc was tied for 10th among 19 RBs with at least 200 rushes, perhaps signaling a slowdown. Then again, his 8.7 good-blocking ypa was tied for second among RBs with at least 100 good-blocking attempts. He could be even better in 2012 now that he has slimmed down and is playing for Fisher, a coach who knows how to properly use powerful running backs.
Touchdowns 19
MEL KIPER’S ROOKIE SLEEPER
24.4 0
10
20
30
40
Interceptions 16 14.9 0
5
10
15
20
25
RB Isaiah Pead As Jackson heads into his ninth season, he’s more about power than elusiveness. That gives Pead a chance to fill a niche. The 50th pick out of Cincinnati has the acceleration and elusiveness the Rams lack everywhere else on offense. I’ll be surprised if Pead doesn’t get 100 carries.
ESPN (ISSN # 1097-1998) (USPS # 016-356). Volume 15, No. 16 Sept. 3, 2012. ESPN is published biweekly, except monthly in January and July, by ESPN, 77 West 66th St., New York, NY, 10023-6201. The subscription price is $26 for one year. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY, and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to ESPN, P.O. Box 37325, Boone, IA 50037-0325. For subscription queries, call customer service at 1-888-267-3684. To change your address, log on to www.accountinfo.espnmag.com.