Ten of the past 15 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 10 in the league in touchdown percentage—converting drives into TDs. The 49ers (24.7%, 10th in NFL) just eke in, while the Ravens (22.8%, 11th) are right behind. Advantage: San Francisco. Barely.
KEEPING SCORE TD% 40%
Overall TD%
30%
super bowl X LV I I preview 20%
Possessions
TDs
FGs
Nonscoring possessions
186
194 184 188 196
197 185 188 182 186 191
190
195 182
180
180
180
186 183 170
175
176 175 175 178
193 193
200
195
202
208
225
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
c o v e r i ll u strat i o n b y S e a n m c c a b e cover photo by TOM HAUCK sl u g i ll u strat i o n b y L uk e shu m a n
Patriots Saints Broncos Seahawks Packers Redskins Giants Falcons Panthers 49ers Ravens Bucs Cowboys Texans Colts Bengals Chargers Bears Vikings Bills Lions Steelers Titans Rams Dolphins Browns Jets Eagles Raiders Jaguars Cardinals Chiefs
Anquan Boldin, Ravens receiver
the Ravens anD 49ers had a total of 371 possessions this season. each one of them was mere practice to execute the perfect drive on super sunday in new orleans.
0%
185 190 188
THE LONG DRIVE TO BOURBON STREET
10%
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1 Torrey Smith 21-yard catch On this play, QB Joe Flacco showed why he’s much better throwing to the right side (7.8 yards per pass, 63% completion rate) than the left (5.1, 49%).
game Dec. 23, 2012, vs. Giants Situation 3:15 left in 2nd quarter Score Ravens leading 17-7 Drive details 7 plays, 76 yards
2 Ray Rice four-yard run Baltimore’s run O is strongest between the tackles: The Ravens averaged 4.55 ypc and got stuffed for a loss or no gain a league-low 11% of the time.
BIG-GAME PLAYS, BIG-GAME PLAYERS
The perfect drive, in many ways, isn’t really much of a drive at all. It’s a 90-yard TD run or a streaking bomb down the sideline. One play, six points. But that’s the exception rather than the rule. The Harbaugh brothers have different definitions of the perfect drive. For Jim’s 49ers, it’s long and demoralizing to the defense—a seamless melding of QB Colin Kaepernick’s speed on the edges and his dropped-out-of-the-sky touch on deep balls. In between, it’s Frank Gore slashing behind a mass of O-linemen. For John’s Ravens, the perfect drive focuses on running back Ray Rice getting touches between the tackles and in the flat. A Joe Flacco to Torrey Smith deep shot keeps the safeties from crowding the line. With those parameters in mind, we slogged through hundreds of drives this season and found the perfect examples of the perfect ones for both the 49ers and Ravens. Their challenge: replicating them on Feb. 3.
1st & 10
1st & 10 2nd & 6
3rd & 2
4 BOLDIN 12-YARD CATCH Boldin has some of the surest hands in the NFL: He dropped only three balls all season, a 95.6% rate, eighth among WRs with at least 60 catches.
1st & 10
1
1st & 10
5 RICE 27-YARD TD CATCH This was Rice’s only receiving TD in 2012, but he’s essential to Baltimore’s passing game. He had 61 catches (2nd among RBs) and 478 yards (4th).
Torrey Smith, WR height 6’0” weight 205
2nd & 5
4 2
5
3
Starts at Baltimore 24
RAVENS offense against 49ers defense Ray Rice averaged only 1.3 yards after contact (fifth worst among RBs with 200 carries), while the 49ers allowed an NFL-low 1.21 yards after contact.
The 49ers ranked 15th against two-TE, one-back sets (5.4 ypp), which the Ravens ran only 15% of the time. Look for Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson together.
49ers offenSe against ravens defense The 49ers love to ground and pound—their 5.1 ypc was third in the NFL—and Baltimore’s D stuffed RBs for a loss or no gain on an NFL-low 14% of carries.
According to DVOA,* the Baltimore O ranked 28th in red zone passing but fourth in running. The San Francisco D: 26th vs. the pass, second against the run.
The Ravens allowed only a 13.5 QBR when they pressured the QB (fifth in NFL). Colin Kaepernick, though, is solid under duress (46.0 QBR, ninth).
The Niners should stay away from “11 personnel” (three WRs): They gained only 5.2 ypp (27th in NFL), and the Ravens D allowed just 4.8 ypp (fourth in NFL).
4
3rd & 15
2nd & 19
Starts at SF 7
2nd & 9 5
2nd & goal
3
1st & 10
4th & 1
1st & 10
2
1st & 10
2nd & 8
1
1st & 10
2nd & 5
1st & 10
1st & goal No gain on run
—AARON SCHATZ, FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS
Key
3 Anquan Boldin three-yard catch Boldin is Flacco’s favorite target on third down, but the WR converted just 16 of 34 targets into first downs, which is slightly below league average.
* Football Outsiders’ DVOA rating measures a team’s success on every play compared with a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent.
Run Pass
5 Gore 11-yard run
4 Michael Crabtree 14-yard catch
Attempt with no gain
The Niners used two extra O-linemen here. With seven linemen and needing five or fewer yards, they got a first down or TD on 11 of 15 plays.
From Week 11 on, Crabtree had 41 catches (7th in NFL), 595 yards (7th) and five receiving TDs (T-6th). With Alex Smith as QB, he was 41st in targets.
Penalty
Frank Gore, RB height 5’9” weight 217
3 Gore 26-yard run The Packers put just six in the box on this play, and Gore gashed them. His 6.6 ypc against six-man boxes was second among RBs with 100 carries.
2 Colin Kaepernick 16-yard run After becoming the starter in Week 11, Kaepernick gained 8.4 ypc on designed QB runs, including read options. That’s better than even RG3’s average (7.1).
1 FRANK Gore five-yard run The 49ers excel at midlength gains. San Francisco led the NFL with 1.49 second-level ypc—yards gained between five and 10 yards past the line.
game Jan. 12, 2013, vs. Packers Situation 11:28 left in 4th quarter Score 49ers leading 38-24 Drive details 11 plays, 93 yards
All stats from regular season
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illustration by hyperakt previous spread: KIRBY LEE/IMAGE OF SPORT/USA TODAY SPORTS; this spread from left: BEN LIEBENBER G/AP IMAGE S; RICK OSENTOSKI/AP IMAGES
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Diametrically Opposed
far from average
Ray Rice would be wise to run toward the left sideline, which is about the only weakness of the 49ers’ fourth-ranked rush D. Frank Gore—and, for that matter, Colin Kaepernick—should be wary of running left against the Ravens.
Kaepernick would be the youngest QB to win a Super Bowl since Ben Roethlisberger in 2006.
All numbers are yards per carry. 60
Ravens
49ers
Defense
Defense
Average SB-winning QB Joe Flacco
50
Colin Kaepernick
0 40
1
2
30
3 20 4 10
5
6
0
3.7
3.8
4.3
4.5
4.2
4.8
3.8
4.0
3.0
4.5
Left sideline
Left
Middle
Right
Right sideline
Left sideline
Left
Middle
Right
Right sideline
5.3
4.0
5.4
3.2
6.5
6.0
5.3
4.1
3.6
4.4
6
Age
Regularseason wins
Postseason wins
Experience
Super Secret
49ers great Joe Montana remembers a moment in Super Bowl XXIII against Cincinnati: “I got to the stadium so early that I was hungry, so I ate my Snickers bar before the game—instead of at halftime, like I normally did. And in the fourth quarter, on the drive to win the game, I almost passed out. It was so loud. I was hyperventilating, yelling at the top of my lungs. I was using every bit of oxygen I had.” —as told to Seth Wickersham
5
4
3
2
For more QB Super Bowl secrets, go to ESPN.com/NFL
1
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blue state
Ravens
49ers
Ray Rice
Frank Gore
The NFC ruled the regular season (see below). Since 1970 the conference with the better mark has won the Super Bowl 68% of the time.
living on the Edge
Aldon Smith could be the key for the 49ers to win Super Bowl XLVII. The linebacker is among the best at pressuring QBs, and since 1982, when the sack became an official stat, the team with more sacks in the Super Bowl is 20–7. data by pro football focus (min. 400 pass rush snaps).
Pressure percentage
Von Miller, DEN Cameron Wake, MIA Geno Atkins, CIN Charles Johnson, CAR Derrick Morgan, TEN Chris Long, STL Aldon Smith, SF DeMarcus Ware, DAL John Abraham, ATL Greg Hardy, CAR
19.7% 16.2%
AFC won
14.1% 14% 13.9% 13.8% 13.4% 13.4% 13%
44
39%
15.8% 15.2%
14%
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15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
2012 results
61% NFC won