WHAT'S AV?
THE BEST-DRAFTING TEAM IS …
HOW WE RANKED THEM WHAT’S AV? AV is an approximate measure of a player’s value within a given season or career. To calculate AV, Pro Football Reference first accounts for how good or bad a given team was on offense/defense (relative to the league average), then assigns an approximate value to each player based on his contributions to that team, using metrics like games started, Pro Bowls and All-Pros, along with stats particular to each position.
To uncover which teams have been the wisest pickers since the NFL draft went to seven rounds in 1994, we turned to Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric (see right). Turns out, the six franchises atop our rankings have won 11 of the past 13 titles. In other words, the Super Bowl really is won in April. —NEIL PAINE
WHAT’S SURPLUS AV? For a player, it’s calculated by subtracting the expected value of his draft slot (Expected AV) from his actual value (Career AV). For example, Tom Brady’s Career AV (178.0) exceeds the Expected AV of the No. 199 pick (7.9), giving him a +170.1 Surplus AV. For a team, Surplus AV per year—the metric by which every team is ranked—is the Surplus AV of all its picks divided by the number of drafts in which it participated since 1994. The equation:
( CAREER AV — EXPECTED AV )
+42.2
+45.3
+45.7
SURPLUS AV/YEAR
BEST
1
Since 1994 the Packers have drafted 22 Pro Bowlers, despite averaging the second-lowest first-round slot in the NFL. Their knack for finding contributors in the later rounds, most notably sixth-rounder Matt Hasselbeck (+95.2 Surplus AV) and seventh-rounder Donald Driver (+88.3), is a big reason they’ve won the second-most games of any team over this span.
1
+39.9
+50
YEARS
The Rams picks have accumulated the seventh-highest Career AV since 1994. So why is the team's ranking so mediocre? The Rams have also had the league’s most valuable collection of picks, with an average first-round selection between No. 13 and 14 overall.
+28.6
2
Thanks to their penchant for trading picks in exchange for overvalued—and often unproductive—veterans, the Redskins have made the second-fewest picks per draft (6.8), and their Expected AV per year is the lowest in the NFL over this span (102.5).
+8.1
+9.2
+10.2
+10.4
+10.6
+11.3
+12.1
+13.6
+14.1
+14.7
+15.2
+16.6
+17.6
+18.6
+20.8
SURPLUS AV/YEAR
+21.2
3
B ROW NS
LIONS
RAIDE RS
SAINTS
REDSKINS
TEXA NS
-9.7
3
-7.0
-4.4
+0.4
CARDINALS
-0.3
+0.8
B ENGA LS
+1.3
+2.2
CHA RGE RS
CH IE FS
+2.6
RA MS
DOLP HINS
JAG UA RS
B UCCANE ERS
BILLS
BEARS
VIK INGS
COWB OYS
PANTHERS
FA LCONS
49 ERS
OILE RS / TITA NS
EAGL ES
BRONCOS
JETS
SEA HAWKS
GIA NTS
PATRIOTS
RAVE NS
COLTS
STE E LE RS
0
PACKERS
2
-30
64
ESPN The Magazine 04/29/2013
WORST
-28.3
-23.9
From left: Ronde Barber, Jason Taylor and Matt Hasselbeck.
illustration by JOSUE EVILLA FROM LEFT: KIM KLEMENT/USA TODAY SPORTS; STEVE MITCHELL/USA TODAY SPORTS; KEVIN REECE/AP IMAGES; ALLEN KEE/GETTY IMAGES
THE BEST PICKS ARE … To determine each franchise’s best picks since 1994, we once again turn to Surplus AV: the difference between what a player has actually produced in his NFL career and what he was expected to produce based on his draft slot. Naturally, some of the most valuable picks are those who come later in the draft, since much less was expected of them.
+300
2
+95.3
+97.4
DERRICK MASON
RANDY MOSS
OILE RS / TITA NS
VIK INGS
OWEN DANIELS +38.7
TEXA NS
HINES WARD
KEVIN MAWAE
SEA HAWKS
STE ELE RS
JAHRI EVANS
SAINTS
+75.8
+91.2
+94.3 CHAMP BAILEY
RE DSK INS
RAY LEWIS
RAVE NS
ISAAC BRUCE
RAMS
+101.9
LA'ROI GLOVER
RAIDE RS
MATT HASSELBECK
PACKERS
+100.3 TOM BRADY
PATRIOTS
+89.5 STEVE SMITH
PA NTHE RS
JOHNNIE MORTON +45.0
L IONS
+73.4 JAMES FARRIOR
JETS
MAURICE JONES-DREW +59.4
TIKI BARBER
GIANTS
JAGUA RS
TODD MCCLURE
+72.9
+85.2
+95.2
+113.2 BRIAN DAWKINS
EAGLES
ZACH THOMAS
DOLP HINS
+81.9 LARRY ALLEN
PEYTON MANNING
COLTS
COWB OYS
TONY GONZALEZ
CHIE FS
+118.8
+137.2
+122.8
+125.0 DREW BREES
CHA RGE RS
+62.3 ANQUAN BOLDIN
CA RDINALS
DERRICK BROOKS
B UCCANE ERS
+40.3 ANDRA DAVIS
BROWNS
3
2
+105.4 TOM NALEN
BRONCOS
ERIC MOULDS
B ILLS
B ENGA LS
CHAD JOHNSON
+51.1
+71.8 BRIAN URLACHER
B EA RS
+98.8 TERRELL OWENS
49 ERS
0
The backbone of the Ravens’ No. 4 overall ranking is the recently retired Lewis, whose +183.3 Surplus AV is the highest of any player since 1994. For now. Patriots sixth-round gem Tom Brady (+170.1) needs only one more good season to beat his perpetual rival a final time.
NO. 1 LEWIS +183.3 NO. 5 OWENS +143.9
NO. 2 BRADY +170.1
NO. 3 BROOKS +152.4
NO. 4 MANNING +146.4
FROM LEFT: PAUL SPINELLI/AP IMAGES; TOM DIPACE (4 )
+100
+146.4
+152.4
+143.9
SURPLUS AV
1
From 1995 to 1997, the Bucs and Dolphins made four of the 10 best picks of the past 19 years. Among the group—Tampa Bay’s Derrick Brooks (third-best pick, +152.4 Surplus AV) and Ronde Barber (No. 8, +132.3), and Miami’s Thomas (No. 6, +137.2) and Jason Taylor (No. 7, +133.9)—only Brooks was selected before the third round.
FA LCONS
+200
3
+183.3
Three of our six best picks ever—Ray Lewis, Zach Thomas and Terrell Owens— came in the 1996 draft. So did Marvin Harrison (+117.5 Surplus AV), Brian Dawkins (+113.2) and La’Roi Glover (+100.3), making the class of 1996 the best overall draft we charted.
2
+170.1
1
THE WORST PICKS ARE … -300 2
3
Wondering why the Bengals and Browns have postseason win droughts that stretch back to 1990 and 1994, respectively? Well, together those franchises compiled four of the 10 worst picks since 1994—Cincinnati’s Ki-Jana Carter (secondworst pick, -75.0 Surplus AV) and Akili Smith (No. 3, -70.6), and Cleveland’s Tim Couch (No. 8, -56.3) and Courtney Brown (No. 9, -56.1).
Leaf, the Chargers’ much-ballyhooed No. 2 overall pick out of Washington State in 1998, had an Expected AV of 78.0. After three seasons, 21 starts and an ungraceful exit from the league, his Career AV was just 2. For perspective: Mark Sanchez, butt fumble and all, had an AV of 5 in 2012 alone.
Not even Rams Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk (+87.5 Surplus AV) could take the stench off the 1994 draft, our worst. The Redskins’ Heath Shuler (-65.4 Surplus AV) and the Colts’ Trev Alberts (-59.7), the Nos. 3 and 5 overall picks in ’94, are two of the seven worst selections we charted.
SURPLUS AV
-200
1
TROY WILLIAMSON -39.4
VIK INGS
BRYANT MIX -32.0
OILE RS / TITA NS
DAVID CARR -36.0
JAMAIN STEPHENS -30.1
STE ELE RS
TEXA NS
CHRIS McINTOSH -33.9
JOHNATHAN SULLIVAN -46.0
SAINTS
SEA HAWKS
HEATH SHULER -65.4
RE DSK INS
DAN CODY -23.0
LAWRENCE PHILLIPS -49.9
RAMS
PATRIOTS
PA NTH E RS
PACKE RS
L IONS
EAGLES
RAVE NS
JAMARCUS RUSSELL -49.7
RAIDE RS
KEVIN LEE -33.2
JASON PETER -38.3
JAMAL REYNOLDS -50.3
ALEX VAN DYKE -35.1
JETS
3
R. JAY SOWARD -34.7
CEDRIC JONES -42.7
GIANTS
JAGUA RS
MICHAEL BOOKER -42.8
FA LCONS
YATIL GREEN -45.1
DOL PHINS
BERNARD WILLIAMS -41.1
DWAYNE GOODRICH -27.9
COWB OYS
TREV ALBERTS -59.7
COLTS
CHIE FS
CHA RGERS NO. 1 LEAF -76.0
CHARLES ROGERS -67.1
SYLVESTER MORRIS -35.6
2 RYAN LEAF -76.0
ANDRE WADSWORTH -59.9
CA RDINALS
GAINES ADAMS -25.4
B UCCANE ERS
TIM COUCH -56.3
BROWNS
MARCUS NASH -35.7
BRONCOS
MIKE D. WILLIAMS -40.1
1
B ILLS
KI-JANA CARTER -75.0
B ENGA LS
CURTIS ENIS -54.1
B EA RS
0
REGGIE MCGREW -39.0
-100
49 ERS
1
NO. 4 ROGERS -67.1
NO. 6 WADSWORTH -59.9
NO. 2 CARTER -75.0
NO. 5 SHULER -65.4
FROM L EFT: TOM DI PACE; G . NEW M A N LOW RA NCE/AP IMAG ES ; G REG TROTT/AP IMAG ES; JAMES D. SMITH/USA TODAY SPORTS; MARK WILSON/AP IMAGES
Yes, it’s possible to have a negative Surplus AV. That’s what happens when the cost outweighs the return—when a player’s on-field play comes up short compared with what was expected of him based on his draft slot. Think first-rounder-turned-benchwarmerturned-insurance-salesman. Here are each team’s worst draft-day mistakes since 1994.