playbook
U.S. OPEN
the killer bunny rabbit
When the world’s best golfers arrive at Philadelphia’s Merion Golf Club for the U.S. Open (June 13-16), they’ll tear the tiny course to pieces, one flip wedge at a time. That’s conventional wisdom. But conventional wisdom hasn’t bothered to do the math. We did and found something else: that Merion, at 6,996 yards, is indeed a throwback, but you can’t call it a pushover. Here’s our breakdown, one fancy metric at a time. —SCOTT T. MILLER
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BIG-TIME MAJOR STATS MASTERS u.s. open BRITISH OPEN PGA CHAMPionship
To rate Merion as an Open venue, we began with a simple question: Who wins U.S. Opens? We then mined five years of data to see how major winners compared with the field in three key stats: fairways in regulation, greens in regulation and putts per hole. The verdict? At the Open, you drive and putt for show ... and hit greens for dough.
-4%
-2%
FAIRWAYS in regulation Hitting fairways helps a bit at U.S. Opens—but it’s by far the most irrelevant stat for Masters winners, who actually hit Augusta’s fairways at a worse rate than the field.
GREENS in regulation How much does GIR matter at the Open? In Rory McIlroy’s eight-shot win in the ’11 U.S. Open, his 86.1% GIR was 41% better than the field. (His putting? Just 1% better.)
PUTTs per hole While analysts love to wax poetic about bikini-waxed greens, only two of the 20 major winners from 2008 to 2012 have putted more than 10% better than the field.
0 2% 4% 6% WINNER FIR% VS. THE FIELD
0 5% 10% 15% WINNER GIR% VS. THE FIELD
0 2% 4% 6% WINNER PPH VS. THE FIELD
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8%
10%
20%
25%
8%
10%
the horses for the course
If Opens favor green-seeking grinders, Merion might be the Openiest of all—skinny-jean fairways framed by bluegrass rough that head pro Scott Nye says “doesn’t lay over; it stands straight up. The ball drops to the bottom.” To gauge whose games are suited to it, we devised a U.S. Open Rating,* factoring GIR, current rank and past major success. Here’s what it shows (lower is better) ... U.S. OPEN RATING
CONTENDERs
7.5
8.0
17.0
17.0
19.0
Brandt Snedeker ESPN analyst Curtis Strange says of Sneds’ two U.S. Open top-10s: “One of these times it’s going to click.”
Steve Stricker So much for his “semiretirement.” Third on tour in GIR (71.9%), with three top-fives in six events.
Tiger Woods His putter has gotten credit for four wins, but how do ya like his swing now that Tiger is hitting 70% of greens?
Rory McIlroy “I think the world of his swing,” says Strange. “A freewheeler, like Sam Snead.” And early woes? Ancient history.
Justin Rose If Rose ever wins a major, it’ll likely be at the tournament that puts a premium on his strength: ball-striking.
30.0
36.0
52.5
56.0
86.5
Phil Mickelson “Needs motivation at this point in his career,” says Strange. “The Open is motivation, but is it too late?”
Dustin Johnson Dustin, 57th in GIR, 187th in FIR, “wants to overpower courses,” says Strange. “I don’t think he’ll factor here.”
Jason Day Day has three topthree finishes in his past eight majors, but at 89th in GIR, Merion will not be another.
Matt Kuchar Four top-10s this year aside, Kuchar’s 107th rank in GIR is not the stuff that U.S. Open winners are made of.
Graeme McDowell Oddly better at hitting fairways (4th on tour) than greens (161st). Strange: “His irons have to be sharper.”
great pretenders
Will Rory roar at Merion? Our numbers say he will.
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ESPN The Magazine 06/10/2013
*U.S. Open Rating=average of GIR rank and FedEx Cup rank, as of May 20, for players with at least one top-10 finish in past 20 majors.
Clock wise from top right: WILFREDO LEE/AP IMAGES; K YLE TERADA/USA TODAY SPORTS; JACK GRUBER/USA TODAY SPORTS; MICHAEL MADRID/USA TODAY SPORTS; JAKE ROTH/USA TODAY SPORTS; CHUCK BURTON/AP IMAGES; JIM WATSON/AFP/GETTY IMAGES; K YLE TERADA/USA TODAY SPORTS; ERIC RISBERG/AP IMAGES; BRAD BARR/USA TODAY SPORTS; JACK GRUBER/USA TODAY SPORTS
playbook
U.S. OPEN NYE: “The players will bail out right, but they don’t want to end up on this mound.”
QUIET, please
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SHAFFER: “This will be more miserable than the fescue on the left. They may lose a ball; it’s nasty in there.”
Perhaps you’ve heard of the rift between Tiger Woods and Sergio Garcia? Let’s assume, um, opinionated Philly fans have too. Now consider that at 109 acres, Merion is 36% tighter than recent U.S. Open venues. “It’ll be ... intimate,” says Merion superintendent Matt Shaffer. With fans, tees and greens all mashed up against one another, expect chaos—and nowhere for Garcia to run.
WHO YOU CALLIN’ SHORT?
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Steel-shafted drivers and Slazenger balls were in vogue the last time a U.S. Open course (Southern Hills, 6,973 yards, 2001) was shorter than Merion (6,996).
NYE: “If the ball ends up here— in the back of the bunker with a downhill lie—you might have to take an unplayable lie. Bushes overhanging the edge will affect the backswing of any shot.” SHAFFER: “These are push-up greens with soil in them. So when they get hard, they get really hard.”
COURSE LENGTH IN YDS
7,800 Three-year moving avG
7,400 7,000
SHAFFER: “This fescue grass can be a full-stroke penalty. It’s clumpy, and when the ball settles down in there, it’s hard to get your club on it.”
6,600 6,200 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13
Although no U.S. Open track has played shorter than Merion in the past 12 years, break it down by par and another story emerges. It features the second-longest collection of par 3’s and fourthlongest group of par 5’s in the past 15 years. Only two other Opens, though, have had shorter par 4’s. Irons off the tee, anyone?
6
7
500 400
200 100 PAR 3
PAR 4
1998-2012 AVG
PAR 5 MERION
That’s the number of par 4’s at Merion listed at less than 375 yards. The past five Open venues have featured only four such holes combined. But don’t get out the red pencil just yet. Since ’98, the 18 sub-375-yard par 4’s have played to a stroke average of 4.06. If handled right, with layup tee shots leading to wedge approaches, they’re birdie chances …
ESPN The Magazine 06/10/2013
PLEADING THE 10TH
MERION: 10TH HOLE, 303 yards
300
DRIVE CAREFULLY
5 42
600
hole LENGTH IN YDS
fouR SCORE ...
5
... And if played wrong? Consider the ostensibly drivable 10th hole, Merion’s shortest par 4. As Shaffer says: “If the players don’t hit where they’re supposed to, the hole will carry a lot of risk and very little reward.” Which, in fact, is exactly the same thing you could say about Merion.
NYE: “They moved the back tee slightly to the left to make the players have to turn it about 25 to 30 yards right to left to hit the green.”
illustration by CHRIS O’RILEY from left: DAVID CANNON/GETTY IMAGES; STUART ROBINSON/EXPRESS NEWSPAPERS/AP IMAGES