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Magazine slrealtors.com

President Rob Ockey

Presidio Real Estate

First Vice President

Dawn Stevens

Presidio Real Estate

Second Vice President

Claire Larson

Woodside Homes

Treasurer

Jodie Osofsky

Summit Sotheby’s

Past President

Steve Perry

Presidio Real Estate

CEO

Curtis Bullock

Directors

Carlye Webb

Summit Sotheby’s

Jennifer Gilchrist

KW South Valley Keller Williams

John Lucky

Berkshire Hathaway

Janice Smith

Coldwell Banker

Laura Fidler

Summit Sotheby’s (Draper)

Amy Gibbons

KW South Valley Keller Williams

Jenni Barber

Berkshire Hathaway (N. SL)

J. Scott Colemere

Colemere Realty Assoc.

Hannah Cutler Coldwell Banker

Michael (Mo) Aller

Equity RE (Advantage)

Morelza Boratzuk

RealtyPath

Advertising information may be obtained by calling (801) 467-9419 or by visiting www.millspub.com

Managing Editor

Dave Anderton

Publisher Mills Publishing, Inc. www.millspub.com

President

Dan Miller

Art Director

Jackie Medina

Graphic Design

Ken Magleby

Patrick Witmer

Office Administrator

Cynthia Bell Snow

Sales Staff

Paula Bell

Jared Lewis

Paul Nicholas

Last month Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors®, addressed members of the Salt Lake Board of Realtors® at the annual Housing Forecast Breakfast event. He predicted that mortgage rates would likely fall to 5.5% by spring.

His prediction was based on the spread of the 10-year Treasury rate and 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Historically, the 30-year mortgage rate runs approximately 1.7% higher than the 10-year Treasury yield. Over the past couple of months, the 30-year mortgage has been roughly 2.7% higher than the 10-year Treasury.

In 2008, during the foreclosure crisis, and in 2020, during the pandemic, the spread showed similar large differences.

“Sometimes the gap is a little larger than normal, other times a little less,” Yun said. “The large spread eventually disappears. Based on history, this abnormality will disappear in four to six months. If we go back to a normal spread, today’s rate should be 5.5%.”

The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed in November 2022 to 7.1%. Since then, it has fallen to 6.1% in the first week of February, according to Freddie Mac.

“Mortgage rates inched down again, with the 30-year fixed-rate down nearly a full point from November, when it peaked at just over 7%,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, in a prepared statement. “According to Freddie Mac research, this one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgageready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which is the U.S. median home price.”

Few remember that in 1981, mortgage rates climbed to an all-time high of 18.45%. It wasn’t until the early 1990s that rates finally began to fall into the single digits. Rates fell to a record low of 2.65% in January of 2021. Since 1971, the average rate has been 7.75%.

Salt Lake Board: (801) 542-8840 e-mail: dave@saltlakeboard.com

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The Salt Lake REALTOR is the monthly magazine of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS . Opinions expressed by writers and persons quoted in articles are their own and do not necessarily reflect positions of the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS®

Permission will be granted in most cases, upon written request, to reprint or reproduce articles and photographs in this issue, provided proper credit is given to The Salt Lake REALTOR as well as to any writers and photographers whose names appear with the articles and photographs. While unsolicited original manuscripts and photographs related to the real estate profession are welcome, no payment is made for their use in the publication.

Views and opinions expressed in the editorial and advertising content of the The Salt Lake REALTOR are not necessarily endorsed by the Salt Lake Board of REALTORS . However, advertisers do make publication of this magazine possible, so consideration of products and services listed is greatly appreciated.

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The Mortgage Bankers Association said that although short-term rates will continue to increase as the Fed pushes them up the next few meetings, long-term rates have already peaked. “We expect that 30year mortgage rates will fall to 5.2% at the end of 2023,” the association said in a statement.

When it comes to interest rates, the worst may be over.

Rob Ockey President