AmCham Business Magazine – Spring, 2009 by Minas Hambardzumyan

theme | economy

AmCham Board David Atanessian President, First Mortgage

Andrew Hovhannisyan First Vice President, Synopsys

Araksya Melkonyan

Second Vice President and Treasurer, IAB Center

Contents Editorial.................................................................. 4 Recent & Coming Events.................................... 5 AmCham News........................................... ....... 11 New Board Member.................................... ....... 12 AmCham New Members.................................. 13 Member to Member Program.................... ....... 16 Member News.............................................. ....... 17

From Global Thinking to Concrete Actions

Gagik Sahakyan Board Member, Ameria

Altaf Tapia

Board Member, PricewaterhouseCoopers

Suren Zohrabian Board Member, Converse Bank

Georgi Isayan

The Anti-Crisis Measures by the RA Government ...................... 25

Exclusive Interviews with Armenian Officials CBA Chairman ................................................ 33 RA Minister of Economy ................................ 39 RA Minister of Finance .................................... 43

Challenges for the Armenian Economy

Board Member Credence Systems The U.S. Embassy also holds a seat as an ex-officio member of the AmCham Board.

Executive Office Diana Gaziyan Executive Director

Minas Hambardzumyan Communications Director

Gohar Sargsyan

Administrative Assistant

Special Opinion by Mr. Andranik Tevanyan, Director for “PolitEconomy” Institute ........... 47

Special Interview with the RA Deputy Minister of Finance RA Deputy Minister of Finance Mr. Vardan Aramyan Comments on the Economic Challenges of Armenia ......... 51

Opinions on Global Economic Crisis and its Impact in Armenia Special Survey by AmCham of Businesses and Population in Armenia .............66

Capital Markets in Armenia 5

Feature Article about Capital Markets in Armenia and Conference held in Yerevan........................................................... 79

Taxation – Even Finding the Law is a Challenge Expert Opinion by Paul Cooper (PWC) about Taxation in Armenia ........................................ 87 Publisher American Chamber of Commerce in Armenia The content of this publication must not be reproduced in full or in part without prior written permission of the publisher. Photos: AmCham Gallery; Photolur Agency; Member Databases.

Editorial Dear Readers,

Welcome to the 2009 spring issue of the AmCham Business Magazine. As you remember, the 2008/2009 winter issue of the magazine was devoted to the financial and economic crisis. We decided to continue on the topic with this issue as well, since, unfortunately, the global crisis continues to affect the world economy and its impact on Armenia is felt more acutely now. In January and February 2009, the GDP declined by 3.7%, exports fell by 45%, and imports by 21%. With this issue, we have tried to find out more about the government anti-crisis approaches and policies. This issue features interviews with government agencies, namely with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, and the Central Bank, as well as with â&#x20AC;&#x153;PolitEconomyâ&#x20AC;? research institute. It also contains a small survey conducted among businesses (by sector) and regular citizens, to see how they were affected by the crisis. Another important event took place at the beginning of March, when the Central Bank allowed a floating exchange rate as opposed to its previous fixed status. Find out the justifications behind this decision from our interviews with the Central Bank Chairman and the Deputy Minister of Finance. I hope your companies are, and will be, will not be largely affected by the crisis. Enjoy reading our magazine!

With best regards, Diana Gaziyan Executive Director

AmCham | AmCham Events

Recent Events AmCham President Visits Turkey, January, 2009 AmCham President Mr. David Atanessian was invited to speak at the “Future Visions for the South Caucasus and its Neighbors” conference that was organized by the John Smith Memorial Trust, the British Council and Links. The conference took place at the British Consulate-General in Istanbul, Turkey on January 17, 2009. Mr. Matthew Bryza, the U.S. Assistant Deputy Secretary of State, and Mr. Peter Semneby, the EU Special Representative to the South Caucasus, spoke about the U.S. Government’s and the EU’s reconciliation efforts in the region. In a speech entitled “The Role of the Business Community in Conflict Resolution,” David Atanessian focused on challenges and the cost of doing business in conflict zones.

AmCham Member Meeting with the IMF Resident Representative, January 21, 2009; Armenia Marriott Hotel AmCham hosted Ms. Nienke Oomes, the IMF Resident Representative in Armenia, at the AmCham member meeting. She met AmCham members to inform them of the latest developments in the global financial situation and to discuss how they may impact Armenia. A special presentation was devoted to the IMF projections for Armenia’s own economic situation for 2009. Ms. Oomes answered questions and commented on several areas where the IMF operates, both in Armenia and globally.

Corporate Social Responsibility Business Luncheons, February-March, Yerevan AmCham collaborates closely with the UN Global Compact Network, the British Council and the Eurasia Partnership Foundation to promote the concept of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) within the wider business community in Armenia. February 6th saw the third business luncheon on the topic of CSR for companies from the manufacturing and industrial sector. Two guests from the Ministry of Economy were also present. The discussion moved on to perceived obstacles in Armenia for companies to practice CSR on a regular basis. Besides the global financial crisis that has begun affecting the country, Armenian producers face very high costs, with customs duties on imported raw material and expensive labour. The general consensus was that these tax and customs issues were vital to provide a healthy business atmosphere in Armenia, which in turn was a pre-condition of sorts for companies to be actively involved in CSR of their own free will. On March 6, representatives from major Armenian tourism and hospitality companies gathered in the Armenia Marriott Hotel to discuss CSR issues. The Director of Tourism Office of National Competitiveness Foundation of Armenia, Mr. Armen Hovhannisyan, was also present at the meeting. The participants touched upon difficulties that the tourism sector faces in Armenia and expressed their concern about the lack of effective government strategy to promote tourism in the country. Some of the participants expressed their willingness to gather around important CSR activities, such as training qualified personnel, organizing “cleaning days”, etc.

AmCham | AmCham Events Panel Discussion on the Global Financial Crisis and its Implications for the Armenian Economy, March 13, 2009; Armenia Marriott Hotel

On March 13, AmCham hosted a panel discussion with its members. Three distinguished guests-RA deputy minister of finance Mr. Vardan Aramyan, head of the World Bank Office in Armenia Mr. Aristomene Varoudakis and director for the “PolitEconomy” research institute Mr. Andranik Tevanyan- expressed their viewpoints on the global financial crisis and its implications in Armenia. Mr. Aramyan discussed four basic areas where the Armenian economy is affected. These are the decrease in commodity prices worldwide, the slowdown of remittances, the global slowdown of economic demand, and new adjustments of foreign direct investments in Armenia. “In this frame, the main objective of the government is to fill in the gap between actual and potential GDP,” Mr. Aramyan said about diverse GDP growth scenarios from 0 up to -4.5% processed in the government. The deputy minister mentioned three main sources to reach this goal: funding from international financial institutions, unconditional budgetary support from Russia, and government savings in the Central Bank’s account (government’s treasury account at the CBA). The funds from these sources will be directed to funding basic state and infrastructure development projects and to support Armenian enterprises. To this end, a special working group was created under the RA prime minister that is responsible for collecting specific project proposals from small and medium enterprises (SMEs). As the deputy minister declared, the government is not going to fund new business projects and preferences will be given to more reliable businesses that have temporary financial hurdles and want to increase their sustainability. Among the applicable mechanisms Mr. Aramyan mentioned the intention of the government to purchase equity and to provide loans under several concessional terms. Mr. Aristomene Varoudakis, head of the World Bank Office in Armenia, briefed the audience on how the World Bank sees the situation globally. According to him, global industrial production declined by 18% in the last quarter of 2008 as a result of the crisis. The decline was sharper in high-income countries - about 25%, and less in developing countries - about 15%. According to World Bank estimates the global GDP, which grew by 2% in 2008, will decline in 2009. First time in 27 years the World Bank expects a decline in global trade. As a result of the economic crisis 53 million people will fall into poverty on top of the 140 million people already impoverished according to 2008 estimates after the increase in food and energy

prices. “We are talking about a global humanitarian crisis, along with the economic one,” Mr. Varoudakis said. The estimates show that developing countries face an external financing gap of USD 270bln to 700bln. In that respect the World Bank supports the Armenian government in implementing several projects, including smallscale infrastructure development projects. Two credits, with a total amount of 35mln USD, were recently allocated to rural roads rehabilitation and two community development projects. The World Bank will assist Armenia not only through the state budget but also by providing a credit line to the CBA (50mln USD), which will be lent further to SMEs through the commercial banks. The World Bank Group will continue supporting Armenia through the 2009-2012 partnership strategy with a scaled up lending program of 525mln USD from the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). The RA government and the World Bank are concerned about the social impact of the financial economic crisis. As Mr. Varoudakis mentioned if, for example, the growth fell to 0% in 2009, the poverty rate in Armenia would increase by 2% (60,000 people). “It is important to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis by strengthening the social protection programs and policy,” the World Bank official said. The discussion was notably stimulated by Director of the “PolitEconomy” Institute Mr. Andranik Tevanyan. “There is a need to clearly distinguish the impact of the crisis on Armenia from local problems,” the economist said. According to Mr. Tevanyan, only 20-30% of the financial economic problems of Armenia occurred as a result of the global crisis, the rest being the consequence of domestic economic policy and internal “system sicknesses”. Among

AmCham | AmCham Events these system sicknesses he mentioned the problems of private property protection, the absence of a free competitive market, gaps in legislation, and the links between Armenian authorities and large businesses. “We noticed worldwide that the global crisis impacted financial sector first, after which it affected the real sector of the economies. In Armenia we face a different situation. The banking system crisis is derived from the decrease of the population’s personal incomes (mostly living on remittances) and cuts in workplaces,” said Mr. Tevanyan. According to his forecasts, the crisis distorts the credit and business plans of the Armenian banks, which will face the loan crisis in 2010. Then, the property prices will fall notably and the banks will have problems not only with collecting payments, but will also encounter the decrease of deposited property prices. According to Tevanyan, this is the reason why many banks have stopped providing loans now. “With the steady flow of remittances to Armenia in the past the Armenian dram was overvalued for a long time. As a result we have four times more imports than exports. The statements that the floating exchange rate will result in an opposite situation are simply not realistic,” Mr. Tevanyan stated. Another reason of the crisis in Armenia, according to him, is the economic policy conducted in Armenia from 2007, when the simplified tax applied to 26,000 businesses was terminated. The justification behind it was the fact that large businesses were resizing themselves to omit taxes. According to Tevanyan, even the current requirements of cash-register receipts are a serious treat for SMEs. “Cash register receipts are a good measure to take against shadow economy. Nevertheless, in reality the implementation of cash register receipts yields the opposite results. Small businesses carry a higher tax burden than large ones, since they have to declare all of their income. At the same time, small businesses are unable to show transactions with large businesses since the latter do not provide necessary documentation.” Mr. Tevanyan`s opinion is that the process should start with large businesses. “We’ve already encountered a class-based hostility between the customer and the businesses, since the customers, encouraged by possible lottery prizes, behave like tax agents,” the economist said. RA deputy minister of finance opposed Mr.Tevanyan’s statements by presenting the government’s view on the crisis. In particular, Mr. Aramyan strongly disagreed with the statement that only 20-30% of the financial economic problems of Armenia occurred as a result of the global crisis. According to the deputy minister, Armenia has small and open economy and is greatly exposed to the global developments. “Yes, we have problems in the economic struc-

ture, and the issues mentioned by my opponent require long-term solutions and reforms. Nevertheless, it is wrong to state that the current economic situation is mostly the result of the wrong policies conducted in the past. The crisis situation in Armenia as in all other countries is greatly accounted for by the global financial economic crisis and is a result of failure of global markets”. Regarding CBA`s decision to switch to the floating exchange rate, the deputy minister advised the audience to refer to concrete and reliable research performed by the CBA (5 methods used) and the IMF (3 methods used). “The exchange rate is not defined by itself. It is a very sensitive “animal” which is based on economic fundamentals, namely terms of trade, productivity differentials and capital flows. Under the open capital account, if the governments controls the inflation it means they have to allow the exchange rate to float so that it can be adjusted and perform the role of buffer to correspond with economic fundamentals. In economics there are three variables that create equilibrium in the economy, namely inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. Based on the international experience, it is not recommended to have floating interest rates. Therefore, either the inflation or the exchange rate should be adjusted. During the past three-four years when the population incomes were highly stimulated by remittances, the CBA allowed the exchange rate to float in order to equalize the real demand with the real supply, keeping inflation at a low level. Now, with the financial economic crisis effects the situation is different: compared with the previous years, instead of robust financial inflow and positive terms of trade adjustment we have opposite scenario which means that exchange rates consistent to the economic fundamentals should be adjusted (depreciated) in order to approve internal and external equilibrium.” Regarding the statement that the implementation of cash register receipts in the crisis conditions negatively affects SMEs, Mr. Aramyan commented: “We should understand that we deal with a certain chain. The large businesses clear their shadow circulation through the retail chain, which are the last ring between final consumers and big suppliers. Of course we realize that our main target is effective taxation of large businesses, however you have to close all loopholes in the price setting chain to allow the administrative system to work properly. Those that are against to this measure are either in the informal sector or are acting from the big business’s interests. Meanwhile the best international practices show that the scenario with considering only large businesses without SMEs is not effective. The approach should be systematic. For example, in the Czech Republic, they managed to improve their taxation system exactly through resolving problems with cash-register receipts”.

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Ï³åÇï³É Ñáëù»ñÇ é»ÅÇÙ áõÝ»óáÕ »ñÏñÝ»ñáõÙ »Ã» Ï³é³í³ñíáõÙ ¿ •Ý³×Á, ³å³ å»ïù ¿ ÃáõÛÉ ïñíÇ, áñ ïÝï»ëáõÃÛáõÝÁ Ñ³ßí»Ïßé»Éáõ Ñ³Ù³ñ ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÁ ÉáÕ³, áñå»ë½Ç ³ÛÝ ×ß•ñïíÇ ¨, Ñ³Ý¹»ë •³Éáí áñå»ë µáõý»ñ, Ñ³Ù³ÑáõÝã ÉÇÝÇ ïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý ýáõÝ¹³Ù»Ýï³ÉÝ»ñÇÝ: îÝï»ë³•ÇïáõÃÛ³Ý Ù»ç ïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý Ñ³ßí»Ïßéí³ÍáõÃÛáõÝÝ ³å³ÑáíáÕ »ñ»ù ÷á÷áË³Ï³Ý Ï³: ¸ñ³Ýù »Ý` •Ý³×Á, ïáÏáë³¹ñáõÛùÝ»ñÝ áõ ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÁ: ØÇç³½•³ÛÇÝ ÷áñÓÇó »ÉÝ»Éáí` ËáñÑáõñ¹ ãÇ ïñíáõÙ áõÝ»Ý³É ÉáÕ³óáÕ ïáÏáë³¹ñáõÛùÝ»ñ: ²ÛëåÇëáí` ×ß•ñïÙ³Ý »Ý »ÝÃ³Ï³ •Ý³×Á Ï³Ù ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÁ: ì»ñçÇÝ »ñ»ù-ãáñë ï³ñÇÝ»ñÇ ÁÝÃ³óùáõÙ, »ñµ µÝ³ÏãáõÃÛ³Ý »Ï³ÙáõïÝ»ñÁ ½•³ÉÇáñ»Ý ³×»É ¿ÇÝ ïñ³Ýëý»ñïÝ»ñÇ Ñ³ßíÇÝ, Î»ÝïñáÝ³Ï³Ý µ³ÝÏÁ ÃáõÛÉ ¿ñ ï³ÉÇë, áñ ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÁ ×ß•ñïíÇ, áñå»ë½Ç Çñ³Ï³Ý å³Ñ³Ýç³ñÏÁ Ñ³í³ë³ñí»ñ Çñ³Ï³Ý ³é³ç³ñÏÇÝ: ²ÛÅÙ, Ñ³ßíÇ ³éÝ»Éáí ýÇÝ³Ýë³ïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇ ³½¹»óáõÃÛáõÝÁ, Çñ³íÇ×³ÏÁ µáÉáñáíÇÝ ³ÛÉ ¿: Ü³Ëáñ¹ ï³ñÇÝ»ñÇ Ñ³Ù»Ù³ï ½•³ÉÇ ýÇÝ³Ýë³Ï³Ý Ý»ñÑáëù»ñÇ ¨ ³é¨ïñÇ å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñÇ ×ß•ñïÙ³Ý ¹ñ³Ï³Ý óáõó³ÝÇßÝ»ñÇ ÷áË³ñ»Ý Ù»Ýù áõÝ»Ýù µáÉáñáíÇÝ ³ÛÉ ëó»Ý³ñ, áñÇ å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñáõÙ ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÁ å»ïù ¿ ³ñ¹»Ý Ñ³Ï³é³Ï áõÕÕáõÃÛ³Ùµ ×ß•ñïíÇ` ïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý ýáõÝ¹³Ù»Ýï³ÉÝ»ñÇ Ñ»ï Ñ³Ù³ÑáõÝã ÉÇÝ»Éáõ ¨ Ý»ñùÇÝ áõ ³ñï³ùÇÝ Ñ³í³ë³ñ³ÏßéáõÃÛáõÝÝ ³å³Ñáí»Éáõ Ñ³Ù³ñ¦: ²ñÓ³•³Ýù»Éáí ³ÛÝ ³ñï³Ñ³ÛïáõÃÛ³ÝÁ, áñ Ð¸Ø ÏïñáÝÝ»ñÇ ïñ³Ù³¹ñáõÙÁ ýÇÝ³Ýë³ïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇ å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñáõÙ µ³ó³ë³µ³ñ Ï³Ý¹ñ³¹³éÝ³ öØÒ-Ý»ñÇ íñ³, åñÝ ²ñ³ÙÛ³ÝÝ ³ë³ó. §ä»ïù ¿ Ñ³ëÏ³Ý³Ýù, áñ •áñÍ áõÝ»Ýù áñáß³ÏÇ ßÕÃ³ÛÇ Ñ»ï: Êáßáñ µÇ½Ý»ëÝ»ñÝ Çñ»Ýó ëïí»ñ³ÛÇÝ ßñç³Ý³éáõÃÛáõÝÁ Ù³ùñáõÙ »Ý Ù³Ýñ³Í³Ë ßÕÃ³ÛÇ ÙÇçáóáí, áñÁ Ñ³Ý¹Çë³ÝáõÙ ¿ í»ñçÝ³Ï³Ý ëå³éáÕÇ ¨ Ëáßáñ Ù³ï³Ï³ñ³ñÇ ÙÇç¨ í»ñçÇÝ ûÕ³ÏÁ: ÆÑ³ñÏ», Ù»Ýù •Çï³ÏóáõÙ »Ýù, áñ Ù»ñ í»ñçÝ³Ï³Ý Ýå³ï³ÏÁ Ëáßáñ µÇ½Ý»ëÝ»ñÇÝ Ñ³ñÏ»ÉÝ ¿, µ³Ûó ¹ñ³ Ñ³Ù³ñ å»ïù ¿ ÷³Ïí»Ý •Ý³•áÛ³óÙ³Ý ßÕÃ³ÛÇ µáÉáñ ³Ýóù»ñÁ, áñå»ë½Ç í³ñã³Ï³Ý Ñ³Ù³Ï³ñ•Á Ï³ñáÕ³Ý³ Ï³ÝáÝ³íáñ •áñÍ»É: Üñ³Ýù, áíù»ñ ³Ûë ÙÇçáóÇÝ ¹»Ù »Ý, •áñÍáõÙ »Ý áã ýáñÙ³É Ñ³ïí³ÍáõÙ Ï³Ù å³ßïå³ÝáõÙ »Ý Ëáßáñ µÇ½Ý»ëÝ»ñÇ ß³Ñ»ñÁ: Æ ¹»å, ³ë»Ù, áñ É³í³•áõÛÝ ÙÇç³½•³ÛÇÝ ÷áñÓÁ óáõÛó ¿ ï³ÉÇë, áñ ÙÇ³ÛÝ Ëáßáñ µÇ½Ý»ëÝ»ñÇÝ Ñ³ßíÇ ³éÝ»ÉÁ ³Ý³ñ¹ÛáõÝ³í»ï ¿: Øáï»óáõÙÁ å»ïù ¿ ÉÇÝÇ Ñ³Ù³Ï³ñ•í³Í: úñÇÝ³Ï` â»ËÇ³ÛÇ Ð³Ýñ³å»ïáõÃÛáõÝáõÙ Ñ³ñÏ³ÛÇÝ Ñ³Ù³Ï³ñ•Ç µ³ñ»É³íáõÙÁ ï»ÕÇ ¿ áõÝ»ó»É Ð¸Ø ÏïñáÝÝ»ñÇ Ñ»ï Ï³åí³Í ËÝ¹ÇñÝ»ñÇ Ï³ñ•³íáñÙ³Ý ßÝáñÑÇí¦:

AmCham | News AmCham Armenia is a Member to the European Council of American Chambers of Commerce

AmCham Armenia is a Member to World Bank Tax and Customs Monitoring Group

On April 4, 2009 AmCham Armenia became a Member to the European Council of American Chambers of Commerce (ECACC). It is presented as such to the ECACC membership in the news update released during the first week of April with further introduction in Washington D.C. ( June 3 - 5), where the ECACC management will be holding meetings with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S. President Barack Obama's administration.

In order to assess the impact of the government’s administrative reforms in tax and customs fields, there was a need to launch a practice of public-private dialogue through representative institutions. It seems that the new government prioritizes reforms in fiscal agencies and few months ago created a Working Group on Improving Revenue Administration – EVBAKH (Armenian abbreviation) committee. A monitoring group representing the private sector, business community and the civil society should be seen as one of the stakeholders interested in improvements in the business climate and providing feedback on the real picture how are reforms implemented on the ground.

Founded in 1963, the ECACC today represents the corporate interests of more than 17.000 American and European companies, based in 39 countries and employing more than 20 million people. ECACC's member companies account for more than $ 1.1 trillion in investment on both sides of the Atlantic. Member Chambers of the Council are voluntary associations supported entirely by membership dues. In addition, all Member Chambers are members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and work closely with its International Division to coordinate policy and strategy. ECACC is a network of chambers across Europe for the exchange of best practices, mutual member company benefits and functions as a forum for discussion, debate and, where necessary, representation on issues relevant to the European business environment. ECACC activities include: ··

Promoting commercial, financial and industrial relations between the United States and European countries;

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Presenting the views of the business community operating in the areas of the member Chambers to agencies and organizations in the United States;

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Representing, when appropriate, the views and aims of the members' interests to representatives of host country governments and other regional intergovernmental organizations.

From its inception, ECACC has been the voice of international business in Europe. It is recognized both in Europe and the United States as an influential opinion-forming body actively engaged in fostering better trade and investment relations between its chambers' host countries and the United States.

Main objectives of the monitoring group include but are not limited to: ··

Providing timely response on on-going tax/customs reform initiatives, including provision of feedback on draft legislative pieces of the government

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Revealing shortcomings and bottlenecks in tax/customs administration and legislation,

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Revealing corruption risks in fiscal agencies,

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Advocating for ratification of international conventions easing trade and transit movement of good,

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Seeking official clarifications on specific tax, customs and trade related issues and publicizing them among business/CSO/NGO community;

The monitoring group consists of representatives of the Union of Manufacturers and Businessman of Armenia (UMBA), American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham), Armenian Association of Accountants and Auditors (AAAA), freight forwarders, representatives of large businesses and SME sector, etc. The World Bank country office in Yerevan is facilitating regular meetings of the monitoring group. It is a two-way communication between the monitoring group and relevant government agencies aimed at addressing generic issues in tax/customs administration and seeking responses. Experience of the past few months suggests that the group was able to establish contact with the Ministry of Finance and the State Revenue committee and is expecting concrete responses from them on well specified problems to get confidence in moving forward.

AmCham | Board Update

New Board Member

Georgi Isayan Since April 2008 Georgi Isayan is the Director of Credence Systems Armenia LLC, an engineering development company based in Armenia, and a fully-owned subsidiary of LTX-Credence Corporation (USA), Inc. (Nasdaq: LTXC). In 2005-2008 Mr. Isayan was working as the Marketing Director of the U.S.-owned Cascade Capital Holdings coordinating marketing activities of the Cascade Bank, Cascade Insurance, Cascade Investments, Cascade Credit and Cascade Consultants. In 1998-2005 he was employed by the U.S. Department of Commerce as the BISNIS (Business Information Service for the Newly Independent States) Representative for Armenia, working out of the Commercial Section of the U.S. Embassy in Armenia. He was responsible for writing various reports, sourcing trade and partner leads, and providing information, advice, and other assistance to U.S. companies interested in the Armenian market and Armenian companies seeking collaboration with American companies.

AmCham | AmCham New Members AMCHAM WELCOMES NEW MEMBERS

Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax and legal, transaction and advisory services. Ernst & Young today is an international organization with offices in 700 cities in 140 countries. Our 135,000 people are united by our shared values and an unwavering commitment to quality. We make a difference by helping our people, our clients and our wider communities achieve their potential. Since opening our Moscow office in 1989, our presence in the Commonwealth of Independent States has expanded as demand for our services has continued to grow. We currently have over 3,900 professionals working in 16 offices across the CIS. Ernst & Young is dedicated to helping its clients identify and capitalize on business opportunities throughout the CIS and the world. Our services: •

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Join AMCHAM Today Help create better business environment in Armenia. Call 599 187 or

e-mail us at amcham@arminco.com

Our primary focus industries: •

Energy, chemicals and utilities

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Technology, communications and entertainment

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Global financial services

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Industrial products

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Retail and consumer products

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Transport

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Real estate, hospitality and construction

AmCham | AmCham New Members

As well as long-standing experience in the following sectors: • ICT • Energy Booz Allen Hamilton has been at the forefront of strategy and technology consulting for 95 years. Every day, government agencies, institutions, corporations, and infrastructure organizations rely on the firm’s expertise and objectivity, and on the combined capabilities and dedication of our exceptional people to find solutions and seize opportunities. We combine a consultant’s unique problem-solving orientation with deep technical knowledge and strong execution to help clients achieve success in their most critical missions. Providing a broad range of services in strategy, operations, organization and change, information technology, systems engineering, and program management, Booz Allen is committed to delivering results that endure. With 20,000 people and $4 billion in annual revenue, Booz Allen is continually recognized for its quality work and corporate culture. In 2009, for the fifth consecutive year, Booz Allen was named by Fortune magazine as one of “The 100 Best Companies to Work For.” The firm has a deep expertise in the following cross-cutting functional capabilities: • Organization & Strategy • Information Technology • Economic & Business Analysis • Intelligence & Operations Analysis • Systems Engineering & Integration • Assurance & Resilience • Modeling & Simulation

• Healthcare • Infrastructure • Transport • Trade and Economic Growth Booz Allen’s Presence in the Former Soviet Union Booz Allen has maintained a permanent presence in the former Soviet Union since 1992, offering qualified personnel and modern amenities for Booz Allen clients in both public and private sectors. With more than 80 consultants located throughout the region, Booz Allen provides its clients in FSU countries with unique operational experience, an unparalleled level of local responsiveness, and superior product delivery. Within the FSU, Booz Allen’s clients include defense and intelligence agencies; civil government organizations; global funding institutions such as the World Bank, EBRD, MCC; state and local governments; as well as transportation, infrastructure, and healthcare organizations. Booz Allen Hamilton – Armenia Branch Booz Allen has been a trusted, impartial, and long-term partner to clients in the Caucasus. In 2005, Booz Allen established its corporate presence in Yerevan, Armenia, and since that time the firm has cultivated “trusted advisor” relationship with its counterparts and fruitfully collaborated with the donor community present in Armenia. Having deep understanding of the local business culture, Booz Allen consultants with various functional and regional expertise have a strong emphasis on project implementation and developing innovative ideas that make a difference for clients in Armenia, and throughout the FSU.

AmCham | AmCham Services AmCham Member to Member Program ArmSwissBank Up to 20% off fixed fee services for all AmCham members. Cascade Bank Business Account opening and account maintenance: Free • Inward transfers to account: free of charge - Bank will credit the account with the amount received. • Outward transfers in USD: 0.1% provided the average monthly remittances are in excess of USD 100,000. • Electronic Banking Software: 50% discount on one-off installation fee. • Foreign currency exchange: preferential rates as agreed with Bank’s dealer. Cascade Insurance Cascade Insurance offers AmCham members a discount of up to 20% off all services. Cascade Consultants Cascade Consultants offers 5-20% discounts on HR related services for AmCham members. DG Contact Offering full communication and image packages at a 10%-17% discount for AmCham members. Jazzve 5%-7% discount for AmCham members with a Jazzve discount card, which can be applied for at all Jazzve cafes. Can be used at Armenian locations and abroad. London-Yerevan Insurance Company London-Yerevan Insurance Company offers a 10% discount for AmCham members. Made in Armenia Direct Made in Armenia Direct promotes quality, handcrafted items from Armenia made by talented local artisans, and offers a 10% discount for all AmCham members and their employees (with proof of employment). Megerian Carpet Megerian Carpet offers a 10% discount for all AmCham members. Megerian can also organize exclusive tour which will introduce rug making in all its details. The showroom presents a large variety of fine hand-made rugs. Peak Realty Peak Realty is pleased to offer 20 % discount on all services to Amcham members.

AmCham | Member News

Member News

Into the New Year - With a New Name and Renewed Aspirations On January 27, 2009, Armenian Stock Exchange OJSC (Armex) was officially renamed “NASDAQ OMX Armenia” OJSC. This long awaited name change gave a reinforced meaning to the presence of the world’s largest exchange operator in the Armenian capital market. Even though NASDAQ OMX brand has been registered in Armenia since the fall of 2008, getting a new official name from a wellknown international brand was a demanding, if remarkably inspiring, experience for Armex. It is also a good reason to look back at the activities of the past year, pointing out the successes and noting the issues faced. In addition to everyday business, integration into the global family of NASDAQ OMX was what kept Armex and the Central Depository of Armenia (CDA) busy during the year. Activity standards, policies, procedures, and guidelines applied by NASDAQ OMX worldwide were adapted to local legislation and implemented. Along with that, customer-focused values and corporate culture were fostered and strengthened in both companies to ensure better service to customers, issuer companies, and trading members. Being a part of NASDAQ OMX, the stock exchange and the depository also endeavoured to unite their own corporate values and resources to work as one company with one mission. As the logical endpoint of the integration process, on December 2, 2008, the Central Bank of Armenia registered new sets of Armex and CDA rules, which reflect criteria used by NASDAQ OMX across the world - in particular, where these are significant in terms of fair and transparent practices, and, ultimately, investor protection. Another area of focus was the optimization and automation of internal procedures to ensure even higher quality services for exchange members and market participants, namely the direct users of the trading and clearing system. As a result of efforts in this area, many of the manual depository processes were automated and exchange trading hours for corporate securities extended from one to four. So, now trading on all markets at NASDAQ OMX Armenia takes place from 11:00am to 3:00pm. 2008 also saw the opening of two new markets – for government bonds and for REPOs (repurchase agreements) on corporate bonds, as well as the introduction of the mechanism for manual trades, a feature requested by market participants. Touching upon the business results, good progress was achieved in all areas of the stock exchange and the depository: ten new members joined the stock exchange; the num-

ber of new corporate bond listings surpassed last year’s; the value of trading has gone up in most of the markets. The regulated currency market has also seen an unprecedented volume traded exceeding the equivalent of USD 1.1 billion - an increase of nearly one-third over the volume traded in 2007. Another indicator that demonstrated remarkable growth at the end of the year was market capitalization, which reached the equivalent of USD 177 million, a 68% increase compared to 2007. On the depository side, the number of companies keeping their shareholders registry with the CDA exceeded 1,200, a nearly 64% increase compared to 2007, and the number of personal securities accounts maintained by the depository crossed the mark of 153,000. Plans for 2009 are multi-dimensional and focus on supporting the further development of the Armenian capital market. The first priority goal for NASDAQ OMX Armenia will be to continue the promotion of new IPOs and stock listings. Positive trends in the corporate bonds market witnessed in 2008 give reasonable grounds to expect growth also in the stock market, though this may be somewhat hampered by the ongoing global financial crisis. Still, NASDAQ OMX Armenia will carry on working with potential issuers and brokerage companies, offering its expertise and assistance in all matters related to going public and getting listed. Steps will be also taken to support brokerage companies and media in enhancing public awareness about capital markets and investing. Another objective will be to review and upgrade the trading and the depository systems to make them ready for the implementation of settlements on a T+3 basis. This new mechanism, which represents the best international practice for settlements, will significantly increase the flexibility of the exchange trading through the lifting of the pre-deposition requirement. Finally, NASDAQ OMX Armenia will continue to participate in the preparation of the introduction of the new pension system, which is due to be launched in 2010.

Progress in Building Technology in Armenia Steel framing usually refers to a building technique with “skeleton” frame. With steel framing, walls remain straight and true. That means fewer callbacks due to nail pops and shrinkage cracks. Because materials can be pre-cut to desired lengths, there is almost no waste. Cut-to-length material

AmCham | Member News

reduces in-field cutting and waste up to 75%. Light weight steel stud systems are generally simpler to erect than wood systems or buildings with stone. Once experienced with steel framing, crew labor time and costs can be reduced compared to wood framing or buildings made by concrete and stone. In 2007, the Villashin company developed a new project under the name of LFBT (Light Frame Building Technologies). The new project enables them to construct houses, schools, hospitals, business buildings etc. in record-breaking time and at the most reasonable prices. The slogan of the project is â&#x20AC;&#x153;One House in One Monthâ&#x20AC;?. Projecting and construction of one house of 120 sq. meters takes from three to five weeks. The company has its own design office which works on architectural and constructional projects. As for individual requirements, remarks and offers of the investors are accepted. In the past few years, it became obvious that building houses with this technology was becoming more and more popular. The LFBT project provides the installation of objects on the concrete bases or reinforced concrete plates made in the traditional method. The installation of a design on a cellar, projected in an individual order and made in traditional technology is also possible. The LFBT project allows the customer to choose the kind of windows himself. They also give the opportunity to select any type of gas, electric, water, sewer, or heating systems which are mounted inside of walls and multilayered floors. Modular elements are installed directly into the skeleton of a building and anchored to the foundation. In order to reduce the time of fastenings during assembly, the system provides a simultaneous covering of a skeleton with waterproof plates OSB. After installing the skeleton and a covering it with plate OSB the construction becomes 100 % rigid and it is possible to start painting and decorating. All metal elements of construction are so light in weight that all installation is made manually, without using heavy building equipment.

During its short period of activity the LFBT project has carried out construction in the city of Jermuk, the 10x10 Shooting Center in Yerevan, cottages in Sevan, and also donated a house in Nalband village â&#x20AC;&#x201C; which was the epicenter of the earthquake in 1988.

Ameria Contributes to the RA Tax and Customs Reforms Auditing Process as a Member of the World Bank Monitoring Group Since December 2008, Ameria has been a member of the monitoring group initiated by the World Bank. As one of the leading financial and management advisory companies, Ameria has been involved with the group to contribute to the rigid process of monitoring and assessing tax and customs reforms implemented by the RA government. It is noteworthy to mention that Ameria is among the few private companies representing the business community in the World Bank Monitoring Group. The company will invest its auditing and advisory expertise to contribute to the fair implementation of the objectives committed by this public-private partnership involving the representatives of the Armenian business community on one side and the government-created Working Group on Improving Revenue Administration, EVBAKH (an Armenian abbreviation) on the other side. The main tasks and responsibilities of the monitoring group include a) providing timely response on on-going tax/customs reforms, helping to reveal benefits and/or shortcomings and administrative bottlenecks of recent structural reform of merging tax and customs administrations; b) assisting the government of Armenia and the World Bank to monitor the implementa-

AmCham | Member News tion progress of reforms in tax and customs fields supported by the upcoming development policy loan; c) helping to improve governance in fiscal agencies and revealing corruption risks; d) providing feedback on draft legislative initiatives of the government; e) monitoring the compliance of tax/customs officers with approved norms of ethics; f ) providing an input for simplifying customs procedures; g) providing recommendations to improve cooperation between border control agencies (migration, customs, police, etc); h) advocating for ratification of international conventions easing trade and transit movement of goods, harmonizing the transit guarantee system with international practices; i) addressing institutional development issues such as supporting the brokerage industry, etc; j) seeking official clarifications on specific tax, customs and trade related issues; k) advocating for regional cooperation with practical implications of possible consolidation of border control functions of Armenia and Georgian respective agencies, and enhancing Batumi-Yerevan trade and transport corridor. Ameria is a financial group providing a comprehensive package of professional financial and management advisory, legal advice and assurance services in the areas of corporate restructuring, mergers, acquisitions, legal due diligence, direct and portfolio investments, government and corporate securities markets, business planning, financial management, foreign-trade operations, project and company audits.

INTRACOM Bulgaria Signs a € 15 Million Contract with BTC Athens, January 20, 2009 – INTRACOM TELECOM, a part of SITRONICS, through its subsidiary INTRACOM Bulgaria S.A., announced the signing of a BGN 30 million (approximately €15 million) contract with the Bulgarian Telecommunication Company (BTC), for the turn-key construction of telecommunication infrastructure works of its GSM network. Within the framework of the contract, INTRACOM Bulgaria has undertaken the provision of services and the supply of materials related to the built-out of BTC’s GSM network. The project is expected to be completed within two years. Mr. Manos, managing director of INTRACOM TELECOM, said, “We are excited to further expand our cooperation with BTC, one of the most dynamic players in the Bulgarian market. We look forward to contributing through the accumulated experience and high quality of INTRACOM Bulgaria’s technical services, to the rapid rollout and support of BTC’s GSM network.” BTC is the Bulgarian leading telecommunications operator. With close to 7,000 professionals, BTC is one of the largest

employers of the country. BTC offers a full range of telecommunication services - fixed-line and mobile telephone services, high-speed Internet and data transfer. Both business and residential clients can receive all their necessary telecommunication services from one provider, tailored to their specific needs. As of today the company has 2.1 million fixed-line telephone subscribers, 1.3 million mobile service users and above 240,000 clients of high-speed ADSL. INTRACOM TELECOM is a leading developer and producer of telecommunication systems as well as provider of integrated solutions and professional services to fixed and mobile operators in the EEMEA region. Over 100 customers in more than 50 countries choose INTRACOM TELECOM for its state-of-the-art products and solutions. INTRACOM TELECOM has 2,600 employees, operates subsidiaries in 14 countries and is amongst the largest European companies leading in R&D investments. Since June 2006, INTRACOM TELECOM has been controlled by JSC SITRONICS (Russia) with 51%. JSC SITRONICS is the technology subsidiary of JSFC SISTEMA, the largest consumer services company in Central and Eastern Europe. INTRACOM HOLDINGS Group (Greece) retains a 49% stake. INTRACOM Bulgaria S.A., a subsidiary of INTRACOM TELECOM, focuses on design and delivery of technology and “turn-key” projects in the field of telecommunications, mobile networks, IT, public administration, banking & finance, also providing training and support for the efficient operation of the delivered applications.

Solar Water Heating for Red Cross Hospital and Narcologic Clinic

150 meters squared solar water heating system (for space heating and hot water supply) at the Red Cross Rehabilitation Centre integrated with boiler house infrastructure.

AmCham | Member News In October 2008 SolarEn, LLC completed two large solar water heating projects at the Red Cross hospital and Narcologic clinic in Yerevan. The projects were financed under the Hellenic AID’s Renewable Energy Sources Development and Solar Energy Application in Armenia Program. Under this program, solar water heating systems with total solar collectors area of 290 sq.m. were installed to supply hot water for the needs of the above mentioned institutions.

140 meters solar water heating system (for hot water supply) at Narcologic Clinic with back up boiler.

Latest Updates from ArmSwissBank The range of investment instruments offered by ARMSWISSBANK within the scope of investment banking services was augmented with currency options. This instrument gives investors an opportunity to hedge against the price fluctuation risks and may assist the exporters/importers and other financial organizations in managing their financial flows more effectively. On January 19, Factors Chain International Education Director Aysen Cetintas made a three-day visit to ARMSWISSBANK to conduct a series of workshops on factoring. The workshops intended to provide greater insight into the factoring business and related issues and contribute to the increasing of the efficiency of ARMSWISSBANK’s factoring operations. Education Director Aysen Cetintas presented FCI’s achievements in 2008 and covered topics ranging from FCI’s double-factor mechanism of operations, sale of export factoring to debtor risk assessment and revealing and preventing cases of fraud.

KPMG Armenia News Over the last 2-3 months KPMG Armenia has continued its development as one of the leading international professional service firms by undertaking various actions in different areas which are of importance for our clients, our staff and the development of professional services in Armenia. Below we present the most significant items. Meeting with Prime Minister As reported by the RA government press office, on 27 January 2009 the RA Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan met with representatives from KPMG, headed by Andrew Cranston, Senior Partner of Russia and CIS. Andrew Cranston presented the activities of KPMG and its upcoming plans in Armenia. He noted KPMG has had a full operating office in Armenia in 1997 and now has approximately 100 people. He further noted that Armenia has created a favorable business environment which provides an opportunity for KPMG to focus on expansion and development of its activities in Armenia. Andrew Cranston and the Prime Minister discussed the planned introduction of IFRS for corporates in Armenia and the positive impact both for the business environment in general and for the accounting and auditing profession in particular. Andrew Cranston noted KPMG’s commitment to continue to develop our business in Armenia and our objective to navigate the current economic turbulence without the need for any significant staff reductions. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan wished success to the company in its future activities and assured that the RA government is willing to provide support to the company within the limits of its authorities.

AmCham | Member News

Peak Realty News

Corporate Social Responsibility For more than three years KPMG Armenia staff have made donations to orphanages at the end of December. This time (December 2008) the orphanage was located in one of Armenia’s regions – Gavar. A decision was made to visit an orphanage outside of Yerevan because there are a lot of companies in Yerevan who assist orphanages from time to time, and the regions are not being supported properly.

Peak Construction is happy to announce that they have won the Armenia Firing Range Development Project tender; it was announced by MPRI and L3 Services, Inc. and at the special request of the United States Embassy, Yerevan. The objective of this project is to support the Armenian National Police in developing a modern police firing range where there will be organized trainings in firing range operation with the support of the International Criminal Investigative Training Assistance Program (ICITAP), and the Department of Justice. Peak Construction was determined the winner because of their responsibility and their good record of past performance, and their demonstration of their financial and team capabilities to perform the work successfully. Peak Realty has successfully completed the concept of development assignment for high quality 20,000 square meter multifunctional UniPlaza Business Center on Amiryan Street and is planning to start leasing office and retail in the next quarter.

The KPMG staff were very enthusiastic about making donations for the children. Apart from chocolate and presents, two big washing machines were purchased and transferred to the Gavar orphanage. “We met children at the New Year’s performance organized for them”, said Sona Martirosyan, Senior HR Manager. “Their faces were full of hope that the coming year will definitely be better”. We hope so, we really do. Let’s continue making the children of the world happier by taking social responsibility! ACCA KPMG is proud to announce that two more staff members have successfully completed their ACCA exams. Irina Gevorgyan (an audit manager) and Nvard Hakobyan (a senior auditor) completed their exams and are now affiliates of the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants. This brings the number of internationally qualified accountants with KPMG Armenia to 13. Our warm congratulations to Irina and Nvard and also to the other 20 employees who passed some ACCA papers.

Peak Realty is pleased to present its performance of the last quarter of 2008. Having the credibility of its clients and being one of the serious and respected real estate companies, Peak Realty accomplished the sale of an exceptional total 400 square meter residential property and the lease of 1500 square meter commercial real estate property in the most desired parts of the Yerevan. Thanks to its flexible policy, Peak Group always meets the needs of its clients and satisfies their demands.

AmCham | Member News

Transition to International Standards

A revised accounting law is being introduced in Armenia that will ultimately result in all major organizations having to prepare their financial statements according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). An amendment to the ‘Law on Accounting’ requires that from 1 January 2009 all banks in Armenia will prepare their financial statements according to IFRS. Other financial organizations (such as insurance companies) will be required to report under IFRS as from 1 January 2010. Application of IFRS to the commercial sector is expected to follow at a later date. Changing from existing regulations to IFRS is likely to be a complex process and should be carefully planned. The current IFRS are considerably different to those that existed in the year 2000 and this will require making significant adjustments to the last financial statements prepared under Armenian Standards in order to prepare the first financial statements under IFRS. The IAB Centre is in the forefront of providing the training to help organizations cope with the task of transition to IFRS. Throughout 2008 many IFRS training courses were held for the finance sector, including in-house courses requested by specific banks, courses offered to the finance sector generally, and a course for chief accountants from all Armenian banks, including the Central Bank of Armenia, partly funded by the Financial Sector Deepening Project. IAB Centre was also chosen by the same USAID project to test a team of translators who will be translating IFRS from English to Armenian. IAB Centre has now published a small book setting out the main differences between Armenian Standards and IFRS, which will be useful starting point for all accountants involved in the transition process.

Welcome to Piazza Grande Renco S.p.A, an Italian company that has operated in Armenia for many years, leader in the sphere of residential and commercial construction development, among a number of projects underway, is pleased to present: Piazza Grande. The new multifunctional building consists of two retail stores levels, three storeys of offices, seven storeys of apartments of different sizes and configurations – and two parking levels. Each functional group has independent entry ways and is directly connected with the basement, ensuring a high grade of security and accessibility. Building amenities include monitored service entrance with 24-hour doorman service, WiMax internet connection, satellite TV, private fitness center with a gym, sauna, swimming pool, showers and changing rooms, winter-garden, and unique “bay-windows” to provide each apartment with an outstanding view. Thanks to its modern and innovative technologies, the concrete and steel structure is designed and built according to European standards in order to bear high levels of seismic stress. In the business centre each office has an internal front opening to the impressive area of the internal garden-square in order to provide the same visibility in spite of the floor collocation. Each office is provided with a utility core and an autonomous conditioning system with fan coils and UTA installed inside the facade- ceiling ensuring the maximum flexibility to the office design even to create larger working areas joining two or more units together. The residential area runs from the fourth to the top floor directly connected to the main entrance, the private fitness centre, the garages and the others functional areas of the building

AmCham | Member News – shopping and business centre. Each apartment will be fully finished with top quality products exclusively “made in Italy” and with the consultancy of our architects will match every special request. An autonomous heating system with radiators or floor-heating system of the client’s choice, and the equipment for the installation of conditioners in each room, in order to provide summer cooling, will assure comfort and quietness. Piazza Grande’s rises 100 mt. off Republic square in the commercial and institutional centre of Yerevan: the National Gallery of Art, the English park, charming shops and gourmet restaurants…all at its doorstep. www.piazzagrande.am

BSC and its 15th Anniversary BSC, the first consulting and training company in Armenia, founded in 1994 within the framework of the European TACIS program, has operated as a private company since 1998 and is celebrating its 15th anniversary in 2009. Within the framework of its 15th anniversary BSC has designed a plan to carry out various activities in Armenia in cooperation with educational institutions, major business players and international organizations. A special plan of activities for the 15th anniversary has been designed by BSC for the whole year, some of which are discussed in this article. For the last couple of years BSC has been active in the field of Corporate Social Responsibility and has been carrying out two major projects in cooperation with Triodos FACET (under financial support ICCO). Recognizing the importance of CSR in Armenia, BSC added this component in its core directions of activities, and in the framework of the 15th anniversary is going to perform a couple of CSR programs in the capital city and the regions of Armenia. One major project is to be implemented with the Jinishian Memorial Foundation that BSC has been collaborating with in the recent 5 years. This particular program is to deliver courses in leadership, grant proposal writing, and resume writing skills for the students studying in the last year of college in state universities in Gyumri, Vanadzor and Gavar. The main objective of this program is to create awareness about the significance of their ongoing individual professional development and strengthen the students in the leadership skills. Meanwhile, as another CSR component program, a number of trainings will be delivered to high school students living in orphanages to support them in their further career development.

As, BSC has been active to support the business sector in the country since its first day, the company values the initiative of professional skill development programs which will be also emphasized during the 15th anniversary programs. Consequently, in close cooperation with UMBA and AmCham organizations, a number of workshop-trainings will be available to the members of these organizations to address some specific topics and help the businesses to deal with up-to-date issues in current not-stable environment. Along, the anniversary activities, it is planned to provide 10% training discounts for those companies who will sign a Special Collaboration Treaty with BSC. The discount covers not only the open trainings to be organized in the first semester of 2009 but also other formats such as corporate trainings, coaching and retreats. The first beneficiary from this program has been “Armenian Software” company who made a deal for over 60 employees to be trained with a less amount in this current semester. A formal opening ceremony for the anniversary will be held in the end of spring where key partners and clients will be invited to be a part. Along these partners and clients are to be local and international companies and organizations, including BSC’s strategic partner Triodos Facet a Dutch Consulting Firm in Holland. BSC appreciates its partners and clients who had their vital endeavors during these years and welcomes to be a part of events celebrated in the framework of BSC 15th Anniversary.

AmCham | Member News

HSBC Bank Armenia Launches Telephone Banking Services In March 1865, HSBC opened its doors for business in Hong Kong and today it welcomes 100 million customers in 86 countries worldwide. HSBC Bank Armenia cjsc was the first international bank to open in Armenia in 1996. Since then, the HSBC Group has brought its global experience to Armenia, opened 10 branches and now offers a wide range of products and services to individual as well as corporate customers. In 2009 the bank is making a USD 2 million investment in IT and has introduced a technologically advanced service – telephone banking. In 1988 HSBC was the first in the world to introduce telephone banking services to its customers in the UK. Currently, HSBC Group telephone operators receive 500 million calls a year. In the today’s busy environment where time is highly valued and offering products and services to customers via branches is not sufficient, timely professional service becomes a prime requirement. We often think twice before deciding to go to the bank to conduct a simple transaction or make a payment. Telephone Banking offers customers an opportunity to carry out their daily banking quickly, easily, safely, conveniently without visiting a branch. HSBC Armenia invited a specialist from UK to train the local staff in this new service. So what is the prime advantage of Telephone Banking? Tim Slater, HSBC Armenia Chief Executive Officer explains: “Telephone Banking is a simple and secure channel through which customers can manage their everyday banking needs, e.g. to find out an account balance, pay bills, effect a transfer both locally as well as overseas and receive information about transaction history. Via Telephone Banking customers can block their credit card when it’s lost or stolen or apply for a PIN code. Operating hours provide additional convenience.

While our branches are open from 09:30 to 17:00 during week days and from 10:00 till 14:00 on Saturdays, the Telephone Banking service will be available 7 days a week, from 08:00 to 23:00 on week days and from 11:00 to 20:00 on weekends and holidays.” Another question that rises, is the security of the service. Tim Slater says that “Customers will be identified by asking questions based on a specially developed matrix system. Additionally, all calls will be recorded and kept for security and service control and improvement purposes.Given the great popularity of mobile phones in Armenia, the success of telephone banking is assured. The service is available for all HSBC Bank Armenia personal customers. With the launching of Internet Banking services by mid 2009 the bank will be offering its customers the choice and convenience of branch, ATM, telephone and internet banking.

Top Story | RA Government against Crisis

From Global Thinking to Concrete Actions By Samvel Avagyan

Crisis in Armenia 2009 is a challenging year for Armenia. It is the first time in its entire history that Armenia has faced a challenge with such an impact as the global economic crisis. Although western countries view the crisis as cyclical, Armenian people know about it only from their textbooks. The impacts of the crisis on the Armenian economy and the living standard of the population went unnoticed in 2008. The banking system, for example, did not collapse as it did in Ukraine and Kazakhstan and no significant events took place in the capital market like they did in the U.S. or Europe. Though it required serious efforts on behalf of the Central Bank, the Armenian dram has continued to be stable. Even the real estate market, aside from some decline on the transaction side, did not encounter any significant price falls. Nevertheless, the economic growth rate has declined from 9.2% last year to 6.2% this year. Several mining companies have temporarily ceased their operations, in part due to the decline of prices for copper and molybdenum in international markets. 2009 presents new troubles for Armenia. There are problems concerning the provision of budget revenues, which was mentioned by Tigran Sargsyan on February 5 with reference to the RA State Revenue Committee Chairman report. The Prime Minister said, “… On one hand the world crisis changes the situation qualitatively by creating serious problems in the area of tax collection, and we have to implement the tax collection programs; on the other hand it is extremely difficult to introduce reforms under these conditions.” Nevertheless, the government thinks it is not the right time to modify the budget and reduce budget expenses now. The PM announced that in the worst case scenario the issue of budgetary changes would be addressed mid-year. Before that it is

possible that some expenses will be moved to the end of the year. The anti-crisis program developed by the government was presented to the public much earlier, in November 2008. In two of his speeches during the budget discussions in the National Assembly of November 12 and November 27, PM Sargsyan mainly talked about government anti-crisis actions. Sargsyan announced that the motto of the anti-crisis program will be, “From global intentions thinking to concrete actions.” In his speech on February 13, 2009 during the assembly of the Prosperous Armenia party, RA President Serzh Sargsyan also addressed the government anti-crisis program. The President stressed that the RA government has to apply non-standard solutions aimed at reviving our economy. Serzh Sargsyan assured that the direct interventions of the government are aimed at protecting local producers and encouraging export. The organizational capacities of importers who have extensive experience in external markets will also be directed to promoting exports.

Top Story | RA Government against Crisis Anti-Crisis Strategy The main objectives of the RA government anti-crisis strategy are: 1. Ensuring macro-economic stability, which will raise the country’s resistance; 2. Ensuring financial stability, which will attract investments; 3. Encouraging economic growth with all available tools. Within the scope of this strategy the government will strive to achieve the following goals: • enlarging the scope of consumption; • encouraging local manufacturers; • ensuring a sharp growth of exports; • improving the balance of payments. According to PM Sargsyan, the world crisis is a unique self-regulating mechanism which will fill the gap between the developed and developing countries. The crisis creates challenges while enlarging the scope of opportunities for developing countries and revealing their competitive advantages at the same time. This situation significantly increases the proactive role of the government in economic processes. The government anti-crisis program contains a number of suggestions unprecedented for Armenia. For example, it plans to encourage local producers, especially exporters. Special attention will be paid to those producers who have the capacity to substitute imports. State guarantees, subsidies, and aid will be provided in order to develop business plans. The participation in private company capital is also a possibility. The initial steps in this direction have already been taken. For example, the government made an investment of AMD 161 million from its standby funds into Mega Ararat (the company is registered in Vayots Dzor marz and produces and exports herbal teas, thyme, mint, haw, rosehip, etc). The company founder, Mkhitar Matevosyan, mentions that government participation will allow them to hire from 10 to 50 employees, and will involve more than 100 families from Vayots Dzor marz and the adjacent 26

marzes in herb collection works. The investment will help the company buy additional packing equipment and increase the variety of products. The government has provided a budgetary guarantee equal to USD 3.4 million to Tamara Fruit for its debts to HSBC Armenia CJSC. Having already engaged USD 1.9 million at signing, Tamara Fruit received opportunity to take a USD 1.5 million loan. The company manufactures frozen fruits, berries, vegetables, and juices. Sourcio, a company in the IT sector, received an amount equal to AMD 125 million in February in order to open its office in Silicon Valley in the U.S. Based on the conclusion of the operational headquarters, the amount will be provided by the Small and Medium Entrepreneurship Development National Center as a share in the company capital. According to the RA Minister of Economy Mr. Nerses Yeritzyan, the export potential of the company`s business plan is estimated at USD 60 million. Sourcio mainly produces management systems by exporting them to the U.S. and Europe. It has 50 employees and annual turnover of around USD 100 million. The general director of Sourcio, Hovhannes Avoyan, announced that although they have to buy back the government`s share within the period of three years, they will try to do it earlier. On February 19th, the government decided to provide a budget loan equal to USD 10 million to Kajaran Copper-Molybdenum combine for them to expedite the import of special equipment ordered abroad. A partial payment had already

Top Story | RA Government against Crisis been made. The equipment will increase productivity by 30% and ensure jobs for 2000 people. In this way, the company will be partially compensated for the losses they encountered as a result of the fall of prices for copper and molybdenum in the international market. When talking about the assistance provided to the companies, the chief of staff of the RA government, Mr. David Sargsyan, mentioned that the preference is given to companies that have significant experience and have occupied their position in the market, and to companies providing proposals on substituting imports and increasing the volume of exports. The main part of the proposal received by the government refers to reprocessing agricultural products and developments in the textile and IT industries, as well as scientific proposals. The proposals that were selected by the government undergo expert evaluation in commercial banks concerning their degrees of credit risk. In this way the government evaluates the credit risks and serves as a broker between the bank and the company owner. Besides the concrete assistance packages to the companies, the government provided AMD 17 billion to the German-Armenian fund created under the RA Central Bank with the purpose of crediting small and medium enterprises.

Large investments The next important direction of anti-crisis policy is large scale investment programs. These are for the Pan Armenian Bank, a new nuclear power plant, the North-South Railway (from Meghri to Armenian-Georgian border), and disaster area construction. The National Assembly has already approved the draft law on the Pan Armenian Bank. The Pan Armenian Bank will be an open joint stock company, which will operate on the same level as other RA commercial banks at the same time without entering into competition with them. The business plan of the bank is around USD 100 million.

The Pan Armenian Bank will enjoy tax benefits on profit tax and income tax, and will be relieved of paying state duty for registering and licensing. The RA Central Bank will implement an investment of AMD 6 billion (around USD 20 million) in Pan Armenian Bank capital. It is expected that wealthy diasporans will also invest in the funding of business proposals. The RA government can also become a shareholder, though no final decision has been made. The draft law on the construction of a new nuclear energy block in the Republic of Armenia has been put into circulation. It foresees that the new nuclear plant will have a maximum capacity of 1200 MW. Deputy Minister of Energy, Areg Galstyan, announced that the construction of a new nuclear plant will start in 2011 and will cost up to USD 5.2-5.7 billion. The next large project is North-South railway, which will be funded by the Asian Development Bank. They have already provided USD 1 million for conducting technical studies. The government plans to spend around USD 900 million for infrustructure development. The next important issue is the reconstruction of disaster areas. The amount of AMD 77 billion (USD 250 million) will be spent on this. It is predicted that 5000 new jobs will be created in Gyumri alone.

Sectoral preferences The following additional activities will be implemented to increase the resistance of the RA economy: • Implementation of new investment projects in the area of agriculture within the framework of private-public partnership; • Provision of new incentives for the development of the IT sector; • Allocation of additional financial resources into school construction; • New project implementation (including Asian) in road construction;

Top Story | RA Government against Crisis • The initiation of Meghti-Batumi motorway construction with the support of the Asian Development Bank; • Implementation of new projects of regional significance in the energy sector. With the purpose of creating more favourable conditions for doing business, free economic zones will be set in “Zvartnots” international airport and in Gyumri. PM Sargsyan announced that the U.S. will provide technical assistance for creating a free economic zone in Gyumri.

Floating exchange rate On March 3, the board of the Central Bank decided to return to the floating exchange rate policy. With the purpose of maintaining financial stability under the conditions of the world financial economic crisis, starting from November 2008 the Central Bank had fixed the exchange rate at the level of AMD 305 to 1 dollar. In order to fix the exchange rate, interventions equal to USD 400 million were made from international reserves. Neverthless, at the end of February the market faced dollar deficit and commercial banks introduced restrictions in dollar sales. After Chairman of the Central Bank Arthur Javadyan, announced the switch to the floating exchange rate, the dollar exchange rate was settled at a range AMD 360380. According to the CB, evaluations the dram exchange rate will fluctuate within this range for the whole year. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank welcomed the Central Bank’s decision. IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn in particular has announced that “The comprehensive policy package developed by the Armenian authorities in consultation with IMF staff includes the return to a floating exchange rate regime, allowing the exchange rate to move in line with market fundamentals so as to cushion the economy from the external shocks and safeguard foreign exchange reserves. The authorities will also implement supporting monetary, fiscal, and financial sector policies, and well-targeted structural reforms. They are also taking measures to 28

help offset the economic downturn and mitigate the impact of the economic crisis on the poor.” The IMF immediately offered to provide a loan equal to USD 540 million to the Republic of Armenia to replenish the international reserves of the Central Bank. The IMF Resident Representative in Armenia, Nienke Oomes, mentioned during a press conference that had been called for the occasion that the floating rate enables the market to define the optimal exchange rate. “Neither the Central Bank nor the IMF can define the optimal exchange rate. The exchange rate optimal for one day may be not so ideal the next day depending on how the situation changes in the international market and other factors. Only the market can decide the optimal exchange rate,” said Oomes. The World Bank also welcomed the floating exchange rate policy. “A flexible exchange rate regime is a key building block of the comprehensive economic policy program put in place by the Armenian authorities to cope with the impact of the global economic crisis. The adjustment of the exchange rate will help Armenian companies to compete more successfully in global and domestic markets and will pave the way for high and sustained growth,” says the WB announcement.

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Exclusive | CBA Chairman Comments

Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia Mr. Arthur Javadyan Answers AmChamâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Questions What is the real exchange rate of the Armenian dram against the U.S. dollar? Is the Central Bankâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s policy, aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate by means of providing significant resources from the reserve fund, effective? The RA exchange rate from the dram to the U.S. dollar is real and consistent with the market. The CB does not implement a fixed exchange rate. At an ad-hoc meeting on March 3, 2009 the CB Board decided to limit its interference in foreign currency market and return to a long-term floating rate. Starting from the end of 2008 and as a result of developments taking place in the world market, the exchange rates of the main partners of Armenia started to depreciate against the U.S. dollar. As a result, the RA dram real effective exchange rate became appreciated. In the conditions of the floating exchange rate the dram needed to depreciate to restore the balanced level of the real exchange rate. Nevertheless, taking into account the financial crisis in the world economy, such an adjustment could only be allowed in a stable and reliable financial system. This is why the Central Bank gave the short-term priority to maintaining the stability of financial markets. As a result, the Central Bank monetary and currency exchange rate policies were directed to effective paralleling of financial and price stability. All these allowed the banking system to increase its capital during these months and replenish the foreign currency liquidity, which will allow the financial system to confront the exchange rate adjustment from stronger positions. Taking all of this into account, we think that CB reserve sale is fully justifiable when it comes to having an additional reserve of financial strength. Returning to the real exchange rate, let me mention that according to our estimates, which you can find on the Central Bank web page, the real

exchange rate of the dram was overvalued at around 17-20%. This also coincides with the estimates of our partners, particularly the International Monetary Fund. Based on our estimates of inflation and nominal exchange rates in Armenia and its partnering countries, the balanced exchange rate of the RA dram against the US dollar should be within the range of 360-380 drams, exactly where it is stabilizing now. As a result of this adjustment, from the annual perspective, the real exchange rate depreciation will allow the economy to return to its balanced state. This will ensure a revival of the export sector by activating and increasing manufacture, offering alternatives to imports. This will facilitate the sustainable economic growth by creating new jobs. What is the role of the CB in the anti-crisis program announced by the RA government? The primary role of the Central Bank within the framework of the anti-crisis programs is to provide stability for the financial system and smoothly implement payment and settlement transactions. With that in mind, the Central Bank has a detailed anti-crisis strategy even for the worst case scenarios and has an adequate toolkit to confront the possible instabilities of the market. Besides, the Central Bank supports the targeted programs implemented by the government in this direction as stated in the law. As you know, one of the most significant anti-crisis directions

Exclusive | CBA Chairman Comments initiated by the government is ensuring economic growth and employment by promoting small and medium enterprises. The Central Bank actively participates in these programs. They are implemented through the German-Armenian fund, which is an institution of the RA Central Bank. In what stage is the small and medium enterprise support program? Two small and medium enterprise support programs are being implemented now. One is financed by the RA government and is currently operating. More than AMD 9 billion was provided as loans to around 1600 applicants within the framework of that program. The other program, amounting USD 50 million, was approved by the World Bank at the end of February and will be provided to businesses after resolving several procedural issues. If the program implementation rate is preserved, we hope to provide loans to several of thousands businesses by the end of the year. What are the forecasts, concerns, and proposed projects of the financial crisis? In the current stage of the global crisis the events develop very rapidly and sometimes in an unpredictable direction. The forecasts made by the leading financial institutions and the governments of different countries change almost every day. Sometimes they go to extremes, being either very pessimistic or very optimistic. It is obvious that this crisis is not going to be a short one. Developed countries will not be able to overcome the crisis situation before 2010-2012. Small economies like Armenia that are on the same level of development should overcome the crisis faster and with comparably fewer losses. Regarding our economy, I would say that the implementation of the anti-crisis package developed by the government will allow us to confront the crisis with comparatively small losses. Moreover, taking into account the recent activities we’ve executed, the policy conducted by the Central Bank is first of all called to facilitate the development of domestic economy real sector, creation of new jobs and increase of domestic demand.

If the crisis progresses further, what will be its possible manifestations? Should the Armenian economy descend deeper into the crisis, it may result in the decline of domestic demand and the decrease of both the incomes of the population and of businesses, which in turn will negatively affect the quality of the loan portfolios of banks. The anti-crisis package designed by the government includes the objectives protecting the socially vulnerable groups, which will help maintain the demand level of that stratum. The exchange rate policy adopted by us will encourage competitiveness among Armenian manufacturers, create of new jobs, and succeed in increasing the income of the population. I would like to say that the crisis not only poses new risks and threats, but it also creates opportunities for Armenia, since it is much more difficult and expensive to occupy a position in any market at the stage of sustainable economic development. The manufacturers supported by the government have a real opportunity to enjoy the “crisis opportunities” to realize themselves in international markets and to modernize and upgrade their manufacturing equipment. From this perspective, the government does everything to mollify the possible negative effects of the crisis. Will the CB take measures to make loans more available, particularly by reducing interest rates? As a result of the global financial crisis the banks have become more cautious. This is particularly obvious when you look at the lending policies they’ve adopted recently, which include things such as a more detailed analysis of the financial conditions of borrowers, certain increase in loan interest rates, reduction of terms, etc. In other equal conditions bank loan interest rates are available, if the involved resources are cheap and the loan recovery risks are low. In the current situation the economic development perspectives are very unpredictable both for the businesses and the banks. During the past six months interest rates of the deposits involved by the banks have increased by 2-3%, whereas the opportunities of involving cheap financial resources from interna-

Exclusive | CBA Chairman Comments tional financial markets have decreased. Currently the Armenian banks receive resources from international financial institutions within the framework of various loan programs, which are mainly directed to crediting small and medium-sized businesses. All these conditions drive at the conclusion that opportunities for commercial banks to reduce loan interest rates are extremely limited. The role of the Central Bank in this area is to implement structural reforms. The Central Bank is already executing activities aimed at reforming the mortgage primary market, standardizing the procedures related to providing mortgage loans, securing and protecting mortgage loans and forming the mortgage secondary market based on best international practices. It is important to create a mortgage company in RA for mortgage market development. It will greatly encourage the formation of long-term money resources that will be directed to mortgage crediting. As a result, the mortgage lending will become more available for the majority of the population.

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Certain banks have announced that they will reconsider lending directions to avoid the crisis. What is the general picture for the first months of 2009?

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It should be mentioned that such policy is peculiar not only to Armenian banks, but to all foreign banks. In this way banks â&#x20AC;&#x153;ensureâ&#x20AC;? themselves against the undesirable effects of the crisis. If the banks are able to implement this in a prompt manner, it means that they have an operational risk management system and can be viewed as stable and reliable partners. I would like to mention that when banks are increasingly risk-averse these days and it does not mean they avoid crediting operations. Though one can notice a slowdown in the growth rates of mortgage and consumer loans, since the fourth quarter of 2008 commercial banks have been activating small and medium enterprise lending programs

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àñáß µ³ÝÏ»ñ Ñ³Ûï³ñ³ñ»É »Ý, áñ ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇó Ëáõë³÷»Éáõ Ñ³Ù³ñ í»ñ³Ý³ÛáõÙ »Ý í³ñÏ³íáñÙ³Ý áõÕÕáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÁ: ÆÝãåÇëÇ±Ý ¿ ÁÝ¹Ñ³Ýáõñ å³ïÏ»ñÁ 2009 Ã. ³é³çÇÝ ³ÙÇëÝ»ñÇÝ: ä»ïù ¿ Ýß»É, áñ ÝÙ³Ý ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛáõÝÁ µÝáñáß ¿ áã ÙÇ³ÛÝ Ñ³Û³ëï³ÝÛ³Ý µ³ÝÏ»ñÇÝ, ³ÛÉ¨ µáÉáñ ûï³ñ»ñÏñÛ³ µ³ÝÏ»ñÇÝ, áñáÝù ³Û¹ Ï»ñå Çñ»Ýó §³å³Ñáí³•ñáõÙ¦ »Ý ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇ ³Ýó³ÝÏ³ÉÇ Ñ»ï¨³ÝùÝ»ñÇó: ºÃ» µ³ÝÏ»ñÁ ¹³ Ï³ñáÕ³ÝáõÙ »Ý ûå»ñ³ïÇí Ï»ñåáí Çñ³Ï³Ý³óÝ»É, Ýß³Ý³ÏáõÙ ¿` Ýñ³Ýù áõÝ»Ý éÇëÏ»ñÇ Ï³é³í³ñÙ³Ý •áñÍáõÝ Ñ³Ù³Ï³ñ• ¨ Ï³ÛáõÝ áõ Ñáõë³ÉÇ •áñÍÁÝÏ»ñÝ»ñ »Ý: Îó³ÝÏ³Ý³ÛÇ Ýß»É, áñ éÇëÏ»ñÇó ÑÝ³ñ³íáñÇÝë Ëáõë³÷»ÉÁ ãÇ Ýß³Ý³ÏáõÙ í³ñÏ³íáñáõÙÇó Ëáõë³÷áõÙ: Â»¨ ÝÏ³ïíáõÙ ¿ ÑÇ÷áÃ»ù³ÛÇÝ áõ ëå³éáÕ³Ï³Ý í³ñÏ»ñÇ ³×Ç ï»Ùå»ñÇ ¹³Ý¹³ÕáõÙ, ³é¨ïñ³ÛÇÝ µ³ÝÏ»ñÁ 2008 Ãí³Ï³ÝÇ í»ñçÇÝ »é³ÙëÛ³ÏÇó ëÏë³Í ³ÏïÇí³óñ»É »Ý ÷áùñ áõ ÙÇçÇÝ µÇ½Ý»ëÇ í³ñÏ³íáñáõÙÁ:

ÐÐ Î´ Ñ³ë³ñ³Ï³ÛÝáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ»ï Ï³å»ñÇ Í³é³ÛáõÃÛáõÝ

Exclusive | RA Minister of Economy Comments

AmCham Interview with the RA Minister of Economy Nerses Yeritsyan provisions do not change. This is proven also by the response to the crisis in other countries. One can speak about the promptness of our policies, change in the formats of the directions or increase or decrease of financing of various directions based on necessity.

Which is the axis of government anti-crisis policy? The axis of the government anti-crisis policy is to maintain smooth macro economic policy and ensure the price stability, while managing and adjusting the budget in a flexible manner, and guaranteeing social expenses since the crisis acutely affects low income people. The second axis that we have been announcing constantly is the same, namely large capital expenses (the approval and financing procedures have been accelerated) and the financing of small and medium size businesses. We obviously encountered progress on this one. We try to push this sector forward both by means of banking system and direct support. The latter refers first of all to agricultural sector, which can provide for better results. Meanwhile, we are also negotiating and searching for other opportunities to increase investment and keep the demand high in this anti-crisis stage in order to prevent the economic slow down. The government anti-crisis program was developed in November 2008. Is it possible to review this program taking into account new realities? The situation is being constantly analyzed, but the anti-crisis provisions that were put forward do not change. It is possible that their volume and promptness change in the process, but the

It is hard to make forecasts in this crisis situation, which is alleged by all policy makers around the world, and Armenia is not an exception. But we must be able to make correct estimates and have timely interference, so that we suffer minimal harm from the impact of the international crisis. I simply want to stress that the crisis is a reality and we have to be able to confront it. Its severity is growing day by day all over the world and naturally our approaches to it need to be changed. Otherwise, all the damages will be transferred to our economy. Our main policy will be creating a buffer, helping us to counterattack the negative effects imported from the developed countries and CIS countries with big markets. What were the results of the meetings the government held with businessmen? What steps will the government take based on the suggestions of the businessmen? The discussions were rather effective. This was our first step in the direction of developing industrial policy. Following the assignment of the prime minister, after each meeting we presented the concrete action plan within one or two weeks. We have already started implementing legislative and institutional changes on several activities. We will have to periodically address the other part too, so that we are able to solve the industrial issues accumulated in the various sectors of economy. The crisis creates perfect conditions to speed up this process. We will be able both to counterattack the crisis by speeding up the process of bringing the investments directed to these companies to Armenia, and have a good legislative framework ensuring favorable conditions for industrial policies when the crisis ends. 39

Exclusive | RA Minister of Economy Comments According to you, what branches of the RA economy contain strong growth potential in the crisis conditions? It is hard to say in the crisis conditions which branch contains large potential, since all branches suffer from decline and deterioration of general demand. The traditional branches that accounted for big growth have naturally been affected first. The potential for rapid growth will be provided by the sectors that were small but have had a fast growth rate in the past. They have the potential to constitute significant specific weight, if we pursue correct policies in this direction. These are high cost services including information and high technologies, biotechnologies, pharmacology, and new industrial agricultural branches because, in any case, the demand for agricultural products will be high. It is possible to provide for high growth rate in that direction if appropriate policies are pursued. Meanwhile, we will have to be able to improve our commercial conditions for the outside world, which will allow us to increase exports significantly. In other words, the branches with exporting potential both in the service and manufacturing sectors have another chance to develop rapidly. We have to be cautious if we want that growth to take place since it can create opportunities for diversifying our economy. What developments in our economy can be expected given the dramatic change of the exchange rate of the Armenian dram against the U.S. dollar? I would not call it a dramatic change. The change took place in one day, that is why it is considered dramatic. Nevertheless, it was a logical change that created minimum expenses and provided for maximum benefits. Without going deep into details on this since the Central Bank has already provided its explanation which I personally share, I will link it to the previous questions and mention that it creates new opportunities for the exporting branches of the economy. In other words, the appreciation of the exchange rate was related to the low level of productivity of our economy and great consumer inclination. Now the situation reverses, meaning that we will consume

less, since there are fewer resources that can be directed to consumption. Nevertheless, one can find greater opportunities for manufacturing and exporting. Naturally, capital will be directed to these areas, and we, as a government, need to support the businesses in making investments in the areas that provide for high cost exporting goods. Our activities in this direction are obvious, up to supporting specific companies.

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à±ñÝ ¿ Ï³é³í³ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ³Ï³×•Ý³Å³Ù³ÛÇÝ ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛ³Ý ³é³ÝóùÁ: Î³é³í³ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ³Ï³×•Ý³Å³Ù³ÛÇÝ ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛ³Ý ³é³ÝóùÁ Ñ»ï¨Û³ÉÝ ¿. ³é³çÇÝ Ñ»ñÃÇÝ` å³Ñå³Ý»É ë³ÑáõÝ Ù³ÏñáïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛáõÝÁ, Ñ»ï¨»É, áñ •Ý»ñÇ Ï³ÛáõÝáõÃÛáõÝÝ ³å³Ñáíí³Í ÉÇÝÇ: ØÇ³Å³Ù³Ý³Ï å»ïù ¿ Ç íÇ×³ÏÇ ÉÇÝ»Ýù µÛáõç»Ý ×ÏáõÝ Ó¨áí Ï³é³í³ñ»É ¨ ×ß•ñï»É, Ï³ñáÕ³Ý³Ýù »ñ³ßË³íáñ»É ëáóÇ³É³Ï³Ý Í³Ëë»ñÁ, ù³ÝÇ áñ ×•Ý³Å³ÙÝ ³é³çÇÝ Ñ»ñÃÇÝ Ñ³ñí³ÍáõÙ ¿ ó³Íñ »Ï³Ùáõï áõÝ»óáÕÝ»ñÇÝ, ¨ Ï³é³í³ñáõÃÛáõÝÝ ³Û¹ áõÕÕáõÃÛ³Ùµ ³ã³Éáõñç ¿ ÉÇÝ»Éáõ: Ð³çáñ¹ ³é³ÝóùÁ, áñÁ Ùßï³å»ë Ù»Ýù Ñ³Ûï³ñ³ñ»É »Ýù, ÙÝáõÙ ¿ ÝáõÛÝÁ` Ëáßáñ Ï³åÇï³É Í³Ëë»ñÁ (µ³í³Ï³ÝÇÝ ³ñ³•³óí»É »Ý ¹ñ³Ýó Ñ³ëï³ïÙ³Ý, ýÇÝ³Ýë³íáñÙ³Ý ÁÝÃ³ó³Ï³ñ•»ñÁ) ¨ ÷áùñ áõ ÙÇçÇÝ µÇ½Ý»ëÇ ýÇÝ³Ýë³íáñáõÙÁ, áñï»Õ Ù»Ýù ³ÏÝÑ³Ûïáñ»Ý ³é³çÁÝÃ³ó áõÝ»Ýù. ¨' µ³ÝÏ³ÛÇÝ Ñ³Ù³Ï³ñ•Ç, ¨' áõÕÕ³ÏÇ ûÅ³Ý¹³ÏáõÃÛ³Ý ÙÇçáóáí ÷áñÓáõÙ »Ýù ³Û¹ Ñ³ïí³ÍÁ ³é³ç ï³Ý»É: ì»ñçÇÝÁ í»ñ³µ»ñáõÙ ¿ ³é³çÇÝ Ñ»ñÃÇÝ •ÛáõÕ³ïÝï»ëáõÃÛ³Ý áÉáñïÇÝ, ù³ÝÇ áñ ÑÝ³ñ³íáñ ¿ ³í»ÉÇ É³í ³ñ¹ÛáõÝù ³å³Ñáí»É •ÛáõÕ³ïÝï»ëáõÃÛ³Ý ÙÇçáóáí: ÀÝÃ³óùáõÙ Ý³¨ µ³Ý³ÏóáõÙ »Ýù, ï³ñµ»ñ ³ÛÉ ÑÝ³ñ³íáñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñ »Ýù ÷ÝïñáõÙ, áñå»ë½Ç Ï³ñáÕ³Ý³Ýù ýÇÝ³Ýë³íáñáõÙÝ ³í»É³óÝ»É ¨ Ñ³Ï³×•Ý³Å³Ù³ÛÇÝ ³Ûë ÷áõÉáõÙ å³Ñ³Ýç³ñÏÁ µ³ñÓñ å³Ñ»É` ïÝï»ë³Ï³Ý ³×Ç ¹³Ý¹³ÕáõÙÁ Ï³ÝË³ñ•»É»Éáõ Ñ³Ù³ñ:

Î³é³í³ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ³Ï³×•Ý³Å³Ù³ÛÇÝ Íñ³•ÇñÁ Ùß³Ïí»É ¿ 2008 Ã. ÝáÛ»Ùµ»ñÇÝ: ÐÝ³ñ³íá±ñ ¿, áñ ³Û¹ Íñ³•ÇñÁ í»ñ³Ý³ÛíÇ` Ñ³ßíÇ ³éÝ»Éáí Ýáñ ÇñáÕáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÁ:

²Ûë ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇ å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñáõÙ Ï³ÝË³ï»ëáõÙÝ»ñ ³Ý»ÉÁ ¹³éÝáõÙ ¿ ¹Åí³ñ: ¸³ »Ý íÏ³ÛáõÙ µáÉáñ ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛáõÝ Çñ³Ï³Ý³óÝá-ÕÝ»ñÝ ³ÙµáÕç ³ßË³ñÑáõÙ, ¨ Ð³Û³ëï³ÝÝ ³Û¹ ÇÙ³ëïáí µ³ó³éáõÃÛáõÝ ã¿: ´³Ûó å»ïù ¿ Ï³ñáÕ³Ý³Ýù å³ñµ»ñ³µ³ñ ×Çßï •Ý³Ñ³ï»É ¨ ×Çßï Å³Ù³Ý³ÏÇÝ ÙÇç³Ùï»É, áñå»ë½Ç ÑÝ³ñ³íáñÇÝë ùÇã íÝ³ëÝ»ñ áõÝ»Ý³Ýù ³ÛÝ ³½¹»óáõÃÛáõÝÇó, áñ Ñ³Ù³ßË³ñÑ³ÛÇÝ ×•Ý³Å³ÙÁ ÃáÕÝáõÙ ¿ Ù»½ íñ³: àõ½áõÙ »Ù áõÕÕ³ÏÇ ß»ßï³¹ñ»É, áñ ×•Ý³Å³ÙÁ Ù»½ ïñí³Í ¿, Ù»Ýù å»ïù ¿ Ï³ñáÕ³Ý³Ýù ¹ñ³Ý ¹ÇÙ³Ï³Û»É: ¸ñ³ ³½¹»óáõÃÛáõÝÁ •Ý³Éáí áõÅ»Õ³ÝáõÙ ¿ ³ÙµáÕç ³ßË³ñÑáõÙ, ¨, µÝ³Ï³Ý³µ³ñ, Ù»ñ Ùáï»óáõÙÝ»ñÁ ¹ñ³ ÝÏ³ïÙ³Ùµ å»ïù ¿ ÷áËí»Ý, Ñ³Ï³é³Ï ¹»åùáõÙ ³Û¹ áÕç íÝ³ëÁ Ïï»Õ³÷áËíÇ ¹»åÇ Ù»ñ ïÝï»ëáõÃÛáõÝ: ê³ ¿ ÉÇÝ»Éáõ Ù»ñ ÑÇÙÝ³Ï³Ý ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛáõÝÁ. ëï»ÕÍ»É µáõý»ñ, áñáí ÏÑ³Ï³½¹»Ýù ³ÛÝ µ³ó³ë³Ï³Ý Ñ»ï¨³ÝùÝ»ñÇÝ, áñ Ý»ñÏñáõÙ »Ýù ½³ñ•³ó³Í »ñÏñÝ»ñÇó ¨ ²äÐ ³ÛÝ »ñÏñÝ»ñÇó, áñ áõÝ»Ý Ëáßáñ ßáõÏ³Ý»ñ:

Æ±Ýã ³ñ¹ÛáõÝùÝ»ñ ëï³ó³ù •áñÍ³ñ³ñÝ»ñÇ Ñ»ï Ï³é³í³ñáõÃÛáõÝáõÙ Ï³½Ù³Ï»ñåí³Í Ñ³Ý¹ÇåáõÙÝ»ñÇó: Æ±Ýã ù³ÛÉ»ñ »Ý Ý³Ë³ï»ëíáõÙ •áñÍ³ñ³ñÝ»ñÇ ³é³ç³ñÏÝ»ñÇ ÑÇÙ³Ý íñ³: øÝÝ³ñÏáõÙÝ»ñÁ µ³í³Ï³ÝÇÝ ³ñ¹ÛáõÝ³í»ï ¿ÇÝ: ¸³ Ù»ñ ³é³çÇÝ ù³ÛÉÝ ¿ñ ³ñ¹ÛáõÝ³µ»ñ³Ï³Ý ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛ³Ý Ùß³ÏÙ³Ý áõÕÕáõÃÛ³Ùµ: Úáõñ³ù³ÝãÛáõñ ùÝÝ³ñÏáõÙÇó Ñ»ïá í³ñã³å»ïÇ Ñ³ÝÓÝ³ñ³ñáõÃÛ³Ùµ Ù»Ï-»ñÏáõ ß³µ³Ãí³ ÁÝÃ³óùáõÙ Ý»ñÏ³Û³óñ»É »Ýù ÏáÝÏñ»ï •áñÍáÕáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ Å³Ù³Ý³Ï³óáõÛó: ØÇ ù³ÝÇ •áñÍáÕáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ Ù³ëáí ³ñ¹»Ý ÇëÏ ëÏë»É »Ýù ûñ»Ýë¹ñ³Ï³Ý ¨ ÇÝëïÇïáõóÇáÝ³É ÷á÷áËáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñ, ÙÝ³ó³Í Ù³ëÇÝ å³ñµ»ñ³µ³ñ åÇïÇ ³Ý¹ñ³¹³éÝ³Ýù, áñå»ë½Ç Ï³ñáÕ³Ý³Ýù ÉáõÍ»É ³ñ¹ÛáõÝ³µ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý

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áÉáñïáõÙ ïÝï»ëáõÃÛ³Ý ï³ñµ»ñ Ñ³ïí³ÍÝ»ñáõÙ Ïáõï³Ïí³Í ËÝ¹ÇñÝ»ñÁ: ºí ×•Ý³Å³ÙÁ ß³ï É³í å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñ ¿ ëï»ÕÍáõÙ, áñ Ù»Ýù ³ñ³•³óÝ»Ýù ³Û¹ •áñÍÁÝÃ³óÁ, áñáíÑ»ï¨ ¨' ÏÏ³ñáÕ³Ý³Ýù ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇÝ Ñ³Ï³½¹»É` ³Û¹ ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇÝ áõÕÕí³Í Ý»ñ¹ñáõÙÝ»ñÁ ¹»åÇ Ð³Û³ëï³Ý µ»ñ»ÉÝ ³ñ³•³óÝ»Éáõ ÙÇçáóáí, ¨' Ý³¨ ×•Ý³Å³ÙÇ »ÉùÇ Å³Ù³Ý³Ï áõÝ»Ý³É ß³ï É³í ûñ»Ýë¹ñ³Ï³Ý ¹³ßï, áñÝ ³ñ¹ÛáõÝ³µ»ñ³Ï³Ý ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ³Ù³ñ Ï³å³ÑáíÇ Ýå³ëï³íáñ å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñ:

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Æ±Ýã ½³ñ•³óáõÙÝ»ñ Ï³ñ»ÉÇ ¿ ³ÏÝÏ³É»É Ð³Û³ëï³ÝÇ ïÝï»ëáõÃÛáõÝáõÙ ¹áÉ³ñÇ ÝÏ³ïÙ³Ùµ Ñ³ÛÏ³Ï³Ý ¹ñ³ÙÇ ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÇ ÏïñáõÏ ÷á÷áËáõÃÛ³Ý å³ÛÙ³ÝÝ»ñáõÙ: ºë ã¿Ç ³ëÇ ÏïñáõÏ ÷á÷áËáõÃÛ³Ý. ³ÛÝ ÷á÷áËáõÃÛáõÝÁ, áñ ï»ÕÇ áõÝ»ó³í, ÇÑ³ñÏ», Ù»Ï ûñáõÙ ¿ñ, ¹ñ³ Ñ³Ù³ñ ÏïñáõÏ »Ý Ñ³Ù³ñáõÙ, µ³Ûó

³ÛÝ ïñ³Ù³µ³Ýí³Í ÷á÷áËáõÃÛáõÝ ¿ñ, ¨ ³Û¹ ÷á÷áËáõÃÛáõÝÁ ³Ù»Ý³ùÇã Í³Ëë»ñ ³é³ç³óÝáÕ ¨ ³é³í»É³•áõÛÝ û•áõïÝ»ñ ³å³ÑáíáÕ ï³ñµ»ñ³ÏÝ ¿ñ: ²é³Ýó Ëáñ³Ý³Éáõ Ù³Ýñ³Ù³ëÝ»ñÇ Ù»ç, áñáíÑ»ï¨ Î»ÝïñáÝ³Ï³Ý µ³ÝÏÁ ¹ñ³ í»ñ³µ»ñÛ³É Çñ µ³ó³ïñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÁ ïí»É ¿, ¨ »ë ³ÝÓ³Ùµ ÏÇëáõÙ »Ù ³Û¹ µ³ó³ïñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÁ, Ýß»Ù, Ï³å»Éáí Ý³Ëáñ¹ Ñ³ñóÇ Ñ»ï, áñ ïÝï»ëáõÃÛ³Ý ³ñï³Ñ³ÝÙ³Ý ×ÛáõÕ»ñÇ Ñ³Ù³ñ ë³ Ýáñ ÑÝ³ñ³íáñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñ ¿ ëï»ÕÍáõÙ: ²ÛëÇÝùÝ` ÷áË³ñÅ»ùÇ ³ñÅ¨áñáõÙÁ Å³Ù³Ý³ÏÇÝ å³ÛÙ³Ý³íáñí³Í ¿ñ Ù»ñ ïÝï»ëáõÃÛ³Ý ³ñï³¹ñáÕ³Ï³ÝáõÃÛ³Ý ó³Íñ Ù³Ï³ñ¹³Ïáí ¨ Ù»ñ ëå³éÙ³Ý Ù»Í Ñ³Ïí³ÍáõÃÛ³Ùµ: ÐÇÙ³ ï»Õ»ñáí ÷áËíáõÙ ¿ Çñ³íÇ×³ÏÁ, ³ÛëÇÝùÝ` ³í»ÉÇ ùÇã »Ýù ëå³é»Éáõ, áñáíÑ»ï¨ ëå³éÙ³ÝÝ áõÕÕ»Éáõ ³í»ÉÇ ùÇã ÙÇçáóÝ»ñ Ï³Ý, ¨ ³ñï³¹ñ»Éáõ áõ ³ñï³Ñ³Ý»Éáõ ß³ï ³í»ÉÇ Ù»Í ÑÝ³ñ³íáñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñ »Ý ëï»ÕÍíáõÙ: ´Ý³Ï³Ý³µ³ñ, Ï³åÇï³ÉÁ ÏáõÕÕíÇ ¹»åÇ ³Û¹ áÉáñïÝ»ñÁ, ¨ Ù»Ýù, áñå»ë Ï³é³í³ñáõÃÛáõÝ, å»ïù ¿ ³ç³Ïó»Ýù, áñ ïÝï»ë³í³ñáÕ ëáõµÛ»ÏïÝ»ñÁ Ý»ñ¹ñáõÙÝ»ñ Ï³ï³ñ»Ý ³ÛÝ áÉáñïÝ»ñáõÙ, áñï»Õ ³å³Ñáíí»Éáõ »Ý µ³ñÓñ³ñÅ»ù ³ñï³Ñ³ÝÙ³Ý ³åñ³ÝùÝ»ñ: ºí Ù»ñ •áñÍáÕáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÝ ³Ûë áõÕÕáõÃÛ³Ùµ ³ÏÝÑ³Ûï »Ý, ÙÇÝã¨ ³Ý•³Ù ÏáÝÏñ»ï ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇÝ ûÅ³Ý¹³ÏáõÃÛ³Ý ³éáõÙáí:

Exclusive | RA Finance Minister Comments

AmCham Interview with the RA Minister of Finance Mr. Tigran Davtyan will take steps under its authority depending on this year’s future budgetary revenues. According to you, what is the amount that should be provided from the state budget to support private companies?

How has the crisis affected the budget performance of 2009? From January-February 2009 collected revenues, namely mandatory payments such as tax incomes and state duties and mandatory social security payments, are less as compared to the actual revenues of the same period of last year. The current year’s trends encountered in the economy imply that before the year’s end deviations (towards declining) from the planned nominal GDP are possible. This will have a negative effect on the collection level of the mentioned payments. Nevertheless, we think that there was not enough time with actual data involved to make certain analysis and quantitative evaluations. In the context of anti-crisis activities, is there a possibility that budget expenditures will be reduced or reviewed? It is still early to talk about the reductions or revisions of budgetary expenditures. Nevertheless, in order to reduce the risk of outstanding budgetary debts, the RA government has started implementing activities aimed at temporarily suspending the implementation of certain budgetary expenditures envisaged by the 2009 RA budget and shifting their implementation terms to the fourth quarter of the current year. The RA government

On December 17, 2008 the decree N 1016-A on “Formation of Operative Headquarters and Working Group” was adopted to support private companies and particularly linking science with the private sector and to evaluate the effectiveness of investment programs promoting economic development. The plan is that it will support the best innovation and business programs, evaluated based on the following principles: future perspective, riskiness, co-financing availability, realistic nature, and investments relevance. 128 applications from companies representing different sectors were already submitted to the operative headquarters. The total implementation of these programs will cost USD 127.7 million. Out of that amount, the business proposals of five companies were discussed and approved (totaling USD 4.5 million). It should be noted that the whole process was transparent and preference was given to the programs that will create new jobs during its implementation. As a result of the program’s implementation, those companies will create more than 380 jobs. In order to implement the mentioned programs, and based on relevant decrees of the RA government, resources were allocated from the RA government reserve fund envisaged by the 2009 RA state budget. Particularly in the first quarter of 2009, the RA National Small and Medium Entrepreneurship Development Center (SME DNC) received budgetary loans equal to AMD 161 million and AMD 125 million in order to make investments in the companies’ own capital (to support “Mega Ararat” and “Sorsio”). The RA Ministry of Agriculture received AMD 300 million to implement a program to plant organic gar-

Exclusive | RA Finance Minister Comments dens through “Tamara Fruit” CJSC. “Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Combine” CJSC received the budgetary loan equal to USD 10 million.

into account the fact that local production volumes decreased to some extent due to the impacts of global economic crisis.

The state support to private companies under the financial economic crisis conditions will be continuous. It will depend both on negative signals related to the global economic crisis, which can add more pressure and increase the volume of state budget funding opportunities.

Nevertheless, it is typical that the RA government withdrew the draft law on raising the import customs duties on certain product types from the RA National Assembly, taking into account the fact that RA Central bank returned to the floating exchange rate policy. As a result, the foreign currency appreciated at around 20-25%, thus creating favorable conditions for local companies (by raising the competitiveness of their production both in domestic and foreign markets). In regards to the issue of raising taxes, we would like to inform you that no such direction is defined by the current tax policy implemented in RA and there are no tax increases planned.

Recently the government introduced the initiative to raise customs duties. Are there other tax increases planned? toms duties was preconditioned by the necessity to promote and increase the competitiveness of local production in the domestic market, taking

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Speciall Opinion | Challenges for the Armenian Economy

Internal and External Challenges for the RA Economy By Andranik Tevanyan Director of the “PolitEconomy” research institute

that have been following ownership transformation make the current problems even worse and can be seen more clearly in this crisis situation. The following can be considered to be the RA system-based sicknesses: • The issues related to ownership legitimacy and ownership protection; • Links between government and business; • The existence of monopolies and oligarchies in a number of goods and services markets; • The absence of clear rules of game in economic relations. The current issues of the RA economy relate to the policies implemented by the government, which have a more serious impact on the trends in the economy compared with external factors. The current issues are:

The following are the external challenges:

• Tax and customs policies, which primarily impact small and medium-sized businesses, since the rates have actually increased and businesses are deprived of their circulating assets;

• The decline of prices of copper and molybdenum, which affected the RA mining sector and resulted in job cuts and the reduction of the amount of raw materials being mined and exported;

• Poor budgetary policy, the amount of which has doubled in the past two years. This is a serious burden for entrepreneurship given that economic rules have not been reformed and a free competitive field is almost non-existent;

• The decline of private transfers to Armenia from abroad, particularly from the Russian Federation and from the U.S.;

The internal challenges can be divided into two parts: system-based and current.

• The extensive application of cash registers, which is a serious challenge for small and medium-sized business. The reason is that they cannot justify their expenses (the large businesses either do not provide invoices at all or the invoices are incomplete) and actually end up paying more than they were really supposed to pay;

The RA economy’s system-based problems have a history of more than 15 years and have been with us ever since our independence. The processes

• The exchange rate policy implemented by the government that, in recent years, particularly contributed to the decline of the volume of

The current negative developments in the Armenian economy are the results of both the global economic crisis and purely internal factors.

• The reduction of foreign investment, particularly in the construction sector.

Speciall Opinion | Challenges for the Armenian Economy local manufacturing and export. As a result, Armenia has turned into import economy. According to the official data of 2008 the rate of import has exceeded export by more than 4 times, constituting USD 4.4 billion; • The “expensive” money policy of the Central Bank which was conducted both during economic growth and in recession. Judging from the problems mentioned above, systemic and current solutions need to be applied. Systemic solutions are developed from political decisions and there will hardly be any progress in this direction in the near future. As for current spending, in our opinion the stress should be made on job security and the preservation of social conditions. Therefore, there should be no impediments for the business and the tax pressing should be weakened, particularly: • The government has to reconsider the 9.2% economic growth scenario envisaged by the state budget. Consequently, both revenue and expenditure parts of the state budget should be reduced;

• The state budget has to be subjected to sequestration by proportionally reducing the expenses of all administrative bodies. The reductions should be applied to state bodies, as well as representational expenses and state procurements; • Temporarily stop using cash registers, switching to fixed payment system. Only when large businesses are fully taxed can cash registers be implemented. Otherwise, small and mediumsized businesses, which provide income for 400,000 people in Armenia, can find themselves in a difficult situation. This will result in the deterioration of social conditions; • Grant tax holidays to the businesses which have up to 20 employees in order to preserve the workplaces; • Implement the manageable floating exchange rate policy, which will bring certainty to business relations; • Implement targeted and transparent spending of involved loan resources. This list of recommendations is not complete, but can definitely support the business environment reforms.

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Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance

AmCham Interview with RA Deputy Minister of Finance Mr. Vardan Aramyan ”The financial economic crisis is an uninvited guest not only for us but for the whole world. It is necessary to separate policy from the objective situation.’

Vardan Aramyan thing that the current situation is a result of the RA government’s policy.” According to RA Deputy Minister of Finance Vardan Aramyan, financial crisis of the economy has created a pretty sensitive situation. Recently, a number of prominent economists have raised the question of who will survive and who will benefit from the situation. As the deputy minister says, the crisis, like any global challenge, also creates opportunities for everyone. “Those who will be able to use this opportunity and adjust their policies in a prompt and effective manner will benefit. In this situation, the behavior of all of us is extremely important. No matter how good the anti-crisis program- which was designed by the government, Central Bank and external advisors- is, it can go wrong if the public starts panicking and behaving chaotically,” thinks Vardan Aramyan. The Deputy Minister offers the case of Thailand as a good example of how much damage can be created by population panic. “First of all an individual is rational, and as a consumer he uses various indicators received from the government, markets, and speculations. When the individual behaviors of people come together, they form a public behavior, particularly that of consumers and capital owners. The change in these behaviors adjusts the overall economic situation. When everyone’s behavior is different, it creates a chaotic situation, and even the best program does not work,” says Mr. Aramyan. He adds: “The financial crisis of the economy is an uninvited guest not only for us but for the whole world. It is necessary to separate policy from the objective situation. No one argues that the economy should be more diversified, deeper, more productive, and more resistant. Nevertheless, these issues require long term solutions. It is not right

In order to clarify the Armenian realities related to the financial crisis of the economy, RA Deputy Minister of Finance was willing to answer the questions of the American Chamber of Commerce in Armenia (AmCham) and, according to Mr. Aramyan, help AmCham magazine readers develop justified opinions. Could you please share your opinion on the main means through which the global financial crisis affects the Armenian economy. Do you agree that the crisis situation in Armenia is mostly due to domestic problems rather than the events taking place in the world? I can say for sure that I disagree with this opinion and can I will tell you why. First of all, I will present the mechanisms of crisis penetration. We could call them transmission channels. One of them is a direct channel that works through financial markets. We were not greatly affected through this channel for two reasons. First, we are not strongly integrated with global financial markets. Second, thanks to sensible and tough financial supervision, our banking system is remaining historically stable. Armenian banks have much higher liquidity and capital adequacy ratios of banking norms than targeted by the Central Bank. At the same time there is a so-called “second round effect” of the global crisis that, in this context, is reflected in our economy through other channels. When the bubble of the sub-prime mortgage markets burst, it resulted in grave problems and a serious demand for liquidity in financial markets, immediately after which the contagion effect was spread all over the world. In order to redirect liquidity to cover the losses, the investors who got

Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance affected from the first wave of the crisis started withdrawing resources that they had previously invested in commodity futures for receiving additional profits. That was the first pressure that reduced commodity prices. Afterwards, the wealth of society was reduced significantly (since lots of people, especially in the U.S., invested their savings into company security) due to the capital market decline followed by the collapse of the real estate market. As a result, the aggregate demand went down sharply and pessimistic expectations were formed. With such a foundation, the big economies encountered a significant slow down in economic growth rates, which brought the global decline of demand to the forefront. This was the second pressure on commodity prices. As a result, the prices of commodities, namely oil, copper, iron, and precious metals fell significantly. The commodities have great weight in the structure of our exports, and naturally we could not escape more than a 50% decline in commodity prices. The second channel relates to the economic developments of our partner countries. These countries, in turn, had problems both because of the crisis in financial markets and the decline of the prices of export products, which resulted in sharp cuts in their incomes which had to be passed on to the economy. As a result, the decline of the relative demand in the economy brought changes in the economic situation to the forefront and slowed down economic growth rates. We receive significant transfers from these countries and, particularly, a great portion of transfers from Russia. Naturally, when the economic conditions deteriorated in these countries, it resulted in a decline of the volumes of transfers, while these transfers, as you know, had an important role for ensuring our economic activity. The third channel is the decline of the relative demand in all countries that are considered to be exports markets for Armenia. Besides commodities we also export ready-made products, including food, equipment, etc. The slowdown of economic activity in our partner countries shifts the decline in demand towards our export products. The fourth channel is the direct investments. Because they had to cover the economic damages in the world economy, the demand for financial

resources grew sharply and almost everybody encountered the scarcity of resources. The investors who had problems with their own liquidity reviewed their behaviors. Thus, some projects by the companies can get delayed; others were reviewed, while another portion can simply stay unimplemented. These are four clear channels through which the negative external impact penetrates our economy. As a result, starting from October 2008, Armenia encountered the decline in economic growth rate and ended the year with economic growth of 6.8% instead of the planned and expected 10%. Thus, the answer to the question of whether this situation is derived from our policies is â&#x20AC;&#x153;noâ&#x20AC;?. For example, the total export volume of copper, molybdenum, and other non-precious metals constitutes around USD 550 million. The international prices for those as compared with the price peak of 2008 encountered a 70% decline and a 30-40% decline against the annual average. Therefore, it is not difficult to calculate that only due to the decline of the international price of the dollar our economy will lose a minimum of USD 150 million. If we add cumulative and multiplicative effects to all these (while being spent in our economy- passed hand to hand- the money circulates and has greater impact than its nominal value), we will see that the current economic manifestations are in accordance with the international situation. Returning to the opinion that the effects of the external crisis account only for 20-30% of our domestic economic situation, I can say that one should have justified analysis to make such a statement. There is no doubt that our economy has diversification problems. The involvement of the banking system in the overall economy is weak in Armenia. The science-based sectors are few. We mainly export labor-intensive products. These issues weaken us even more. Nevertheless, it does not mean that the crisis occurred as a result of our policy and I will explain why. We are a country in transition. Remember that we had to work for the whole day to buy a bottle of Coca-Cola, which meant that we were not productive and our daily productivity would suffice only

Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance for this. In the beginning, our internal demand was mainly satisfied by imports since we did not have production. In fact, after independence, that was the first development stage of countries including Armenia; or, to say it in the language of economy, the first part of transition from an administrative to a market economy. The second stage of the development of countries is a period of import substitution. We encountered this boom in the second half of 90s, when the manufacturing developed and we substituted certain imported products with domestic ones. The next stage is export promotion thanks to inexpensive or low-value branches, when you start strengthening the exports in labor-intensive sectors. These are mainly commodities, and the production requires an inexpensive labor force. Nevertheless, when the economy grows you lose the competitiveness, since salaries rise and there

supported by corresponding reforms. That we are late with implementing some of the reforms is another issue. Why not, we could have speeded this process up. This is an objective statement. The current financial crisis of the economy is a signal for us to be more aggressive on the side of reforms. During January and February of 2009, the GDP declined by 3.7%, export declined by 45%, and import declined by 21%. What are the forecasts of the RA government for the first half of 2009? Does the RA government plan to take action to prevent a more significant economic slow down? As for forecasts, I would like to offer the example of the world economy again. Forums are organized all the time. I remember the September speech of IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky

Countries undergo development stages. We cannot wake up and say that tomorrow we will turn into the U.S. For this, we will have to be productive and create a science-based economy. We have to implement long-term reforms to achieve this. is a necessity to pass on to the next stage, which is the capital-intensive stage. The best example of this is the diamond industry boom, after which we lost competitiveness due to rising salaries; while becoming a capital-intensive economy one needs to ensure investments and have strategy and diversify the economy so that your export continues remaining competitive. After this, in the case of adequate economic growth you may lose your competitiveness again if you do not move on to innovative technologies or a knowledge-based economy. These are the stages of economic development. Currently, Armenia is making the transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive stage. Today we cannot say that Armenia should have been a knowledge-based or highly diversified capital-intensive economy, since it is impossible and it does not happen overnight. In international practice, Singapore is the country that has undergone the fastest economic transformations. Even so, it was only able to pass through all of these stages and become a knowledge-based economy within 35-40 years. We can say for sure that Armenia has to undergo all of these stages

when his main forecast was that the crisis would weaken approximately by the end of October the world and will return to the growth stage. In reality the developments were different, since the problems were much deeper than we could have imagined. When prominent economists and politicians got together in Davos during the G-20 meeting they could not find a solution for the situation. In reality we talk about the new financial architecture, but no one knows what it is. You can also look at the forecasts of the reputable structures. The European Union forecasts made by IMF which, as you know, is a very conservative structure and does not change its forecasts frequently, changed them three times during three months. At first it forecasted the growth in the framework of 0% for the European Union, then -0.5% decline, after which -2.0% decline for 2009. As of today, the decline in the European Union constitutes -3.2%. Various similar scenarios were designed for the world economy. Thus, we closely follow these forecasts and try to develop scenarios since we fully depend on the world. Armenia does not live in a vacuum and it is not possible that a decline in the global economy is not reflected by us.

Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance It is hard to make forecasts from a semi-annual perspective. We look at the situation from an annual perspective. The scenarios are different, but the directions are the same for everyone. There is a base-line scenario, which tries to predict the economic growth in case there is no counter interference. In this case we estimate -4.5%, given there is no interference. IMF and the World Bank have -1.5% and -2% decline forecasts. There is a worstcase scenario, which forecasts the decline of up to -9.5% and, in my opinion, is not likely to happen. There is a best-case scenario, when the government has to aggressively inject money into the economy, which will create a multiplicative effect and allow the economy to be summarized with a 0% indicator and will be the perfect indicator in the current situation. If two months ago we were saying that we would have 2-3% economic growth, when the forecasts for USA followed 0% scenario everyone changed their scenarios to worse and it is against common sense to follow the old scenario. In a situation when things are constantly changing, we have to preserve three main things. The first is consistency, meaning that we have to closely follow global developments at any cost. Second, we need to develop report-based systems or be transparent. It means that we have to give the correct signals to the public to ensure adequate behavior. The third is flexibility, meaning that we should not limit ourselves with the toolkit we have in our arsenal. Instead, we have to search for new ideas and solutions. I think that there are certain issues related to a low level of trust, but we have to be as open as possible to the public and weaken this distrust. Our goal is for the public to display the same behavior it did during the August events when, as a result of war in Georgia, there was a sharp decline of petrol supply but the population did not panic and trusted government actions. Judging from the scenarios you mentioned, can we make the conclusion that RA government is in a holding pattern now? What concrete steps are being taken? No, the government is not at a waiting stage. There are three directions that need to be preserved and account for success. First of all, short-term actions

are taken that will ensure the balance of the economic supply-and-demand ratio. If the private sector cuts its expenses, the government has to be expansive. The government has to supplement these reductions by injecting money into the economy. Even though the previous budget was estimated within 1% GDP, currently we have designed and agreed with IMF that we will have greater GDP deficit, even more than 3%. As for taxes, we will keep them to the extent provided by economy. We are not going to provide for the indicators mentioned in the budget at any cost, since we see that AMD 725 billion is unrealistic to collect, it has to be given by the economy. We have kept the GDP indicator at 17.4% which was held on the basis of the 2009 budget. If economic activity provides for AMD 650 billion, we will make corresponding collections. Instead, the expenses will be financed at the expense of the budget deficit. This means that the government will be expansive. To this context I have to mention the sources which the government will use. First of all, these are previously saved resources in the unified treasury account of the Central Bank, which is around AMD 77 billion; out of this, more than AMD 30 billion was already spent. The second, which I have reported about in the National Assembly, are the four programs of the World Bank on top of the portfolio envisaged for 2009. We are talking about an amount of around USD 35 million coming to the budget, and USD 50 million which will be provided to the Central Bank and then distributed in the form of loans to small and medium enterprises through the banking system. The other source is an amount of around USD 500 million from Russia; we have a preliminary agreement about this. The important thing is how this money gets into economy. We cannot take and distribute these funds just like this. So, this is what we will do: first, in any case, and even in the case of GDP decline; we will not cut our social expenses so that the population receiving social transfers is able to confront the crisis and avoid social issues; the second direction is that we will be paying great attention to infrastructures. We are solving a very subtle issue here. Since there is really a decline all over the world, it is hard to target external markets. In the current situation, the correct approach is to

Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance direct funds at creating jobs. We think that if we direct this money to infrastructures, we will ensure both short-term and long-term impacts. For example, one of these infrastructures is construction in Gyumri. We have 6700 homeless families there. The government has taken on the task to finally resolve this issue before 2011. In this situation it is much more essential to speed up the process. As of today, we are trying to assist the tender winner to immediately start expanded construction. In the short term perspective we will have additional jobs, meaning that people who lost their jobs elsewhere can get involved here, while in the long-term perspective we will resolve the social issues. Within the framework of the World Bank and a number of other donor programs, we have prioritized construction that will connect rural communities with the centers and marzes with the main highways. From the shortâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;term perspective it will create jobs, while in the long-term perspective we will raise the economic productivity and will have economy with more competitive infrastructures. Besides this, we are going to promote the infrastructure development, such as irrigation, water drainage, etc. Besides the programs mentioned above, when the first signs of economic decline came forward in December 2008 the government created an anticrisis team, which has to date collected more than 80 projects from businesses and the population. We have informed everyone that we have two ways of supporting small and medium businesses. First is that we are trying to attract additional recourses to the banking sector and distribute them using market mechanisms (USD 50 million from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD)). The second is other support (equity buying, guarantee provision, subsidizing), which will be provided by the operative headquarters created under the Prime Minister. In the case of the second tool, the evaluation criteria are the following: the given business should be local, have import substituting or export production, create new jobs, and have a real product market and evaluated demand. We are ready to support the businesses which have temporary problems. Up to day 8, similar projects were approved. Currently,

the projects with a total volume of USD 130 million were submitted to the government. From the support mechanisms we can mention the guarantees provided by the government when receiving a bank loan, direct financial support, and share purchasing with the condition of selling it back to the company in the future. Besides, we are also trying to improve the economic environment. We have recently started negotiations with the European Union over signing the Deep Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, which will significantly reduce the expenses of our businesses. If in the past the businessmen had to pay 12 monetary units to export the products to Europe, he will pay 8 units now. Thus, we are trying to aggressively cooperate with all countries, be that over the free trade zones or signing agreements on double taxation. In terms of internal administration certain legislative amendments were made for small and medium businesses. Since then no financial reports are required from a business. The only requirement is to submit a brief reference on tax liabilities. Besides, the consulting centers for businesses were created. We encourage businessmen who have problems to apply to these centers, such as small and medium entrepreneurship development agencies. The next is value-added tax. We have defined a turnover threshold of AMD 58 million, which is really high. The companies which have lower turnover do not pay VAT. I would like to take this opportunity to bring to your attention information that was received from the Head of the World Bank Armenia office by Mr. Aristomene Varoudakis. According to him, in case of O% economic growth in Armenia, it is possible that 60 000 people will fall into poverty. What are your comments with this regard? First of all I would like to say that the current indicators are not final and are based on forecasts and analysis. We should not forget that we have hidden employment. It is obvious that many people will lose their jobs. Our issue is to implement corresponding social policy which can be done in two ways. We should either provide unemployment

Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance allowances or try to assist businesses with funding, implementing projects and encouraging them to create jobs. We basically try to do the latter. Time will tell what the real distribution will be. A lot depends on Russian economy, since the social expenses were significantly alleviated by transfers. The issue here is which part of the population will encounter the transfer reductions, the part that was really alleviating the social expenses or the part that was buying cars or private houses or making investments. Could you please evaluate the tax policy for small, medium, and large businesses? There are opinions that the tax burden is incomparably bigger for small and medium-sized businesses, as compared with the large ones. From this viewpoint even the implementation of cash registers is considered harmful for small and medium-sized businesses specifically. First of all I would like to say that we are trying to bring our economy from a shadow economy to a normal state. The countries with shadow economies are not considered to be competitive and productive economies or technologically advanced countries. Small and medium-sized businesses operating legally are being killed by those in shadow. In reality, businesses operating in shadow are less productive, but thanks to their expenses they can kill the other ones who are more productive and have better perspectives. We want to create an equal field for everyone. Of course, this is a burden for the business which is in shadow, but it proves to be effective for the one in the legal field. If we want to improve tax administration we should understand that tax administration cannot be captured. It is the same as trying to catch a bug with a net. This process should not have any gaps. The whole chain should be liquidated. Our targets are large business and there are two ways to throw that net. One is the administrative method, when you do things with force. The other one is a classic method when you try to close the whole chain and implement effective mechanisms. The experience of countries proves that the administrative method is mostly accounted for by political considerations. We think of implementing economically effective mechanisms, which will not leave a place to escape

and will make people pay. This is much more effective. When people confront this idea, I get an impression that they are talking not from the perspective of small and medium-sized businesses but from the perspective of large ones. The large ones clean their amounts through the small ones. If we concentrate on large businesses without closing these holes, the process will not be effective. When closing the chains, one should do it to a full extent, including circulation directed to final consuming. In regards to cash registers, the whole world talks about the protection of consumer rights. What are we educating now? Please, organize a survey in consumer circles. Do you think they would be against cash registers? All over the world people are encouraged to keep the receipts, since it can help them protect their rights. Besides that, cash register receipts can support the buyers financially with prizes; we have just started introducing this culture, meaning that the consumer should know that he can return purchased merchandise and the only way to do it is the receipt. There is another circumstance here. Often, especially when one knows people working in the store, he thinks that not getting the check is not a big problem. Nevertheless, they do not realize that they are getting cheated and that because of these non-payments salaries are not paid. All over the world, in the U.S. for example, tax-evaders are considered criminals and enemies of society. As you know, as a result of the economic crisis, U.S. President Barack Obama has issued an order to reduce the expenses of the state apparatus to the greatest extent possible. Are there similar reductions in RA government and, if yes, what are they? Do not consider it boasting, but we had a similar order before Barack Obamaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s presidency. These expenses have to be reviewed based on the order of the President and Prime Minister. As of today, we are cutting the fuel expenses of all our civil servants by 50% annually. Each civil servant should also be the carrier of this crisis. We reduce the expenses related to purchasing new assets as much as possible (especially taking into account that it is imported) and mobilize the resources for other important expenses, encouraging social or economic growth. If

Exclusive | Comments from the Deputy Minister of Finance the civil servant had received a new notebook, now he works on the regular computer he used before. We also cut business-trip related expenses. Please present your evaluation of the Central Bank policy in regard to the RA dram exchange rate. How much does it correspond to the situation in Armenia in the context of the global crisis? In this regard I can assure you that everything is in place. Now, we do not have future expectations with regard to the sharp depreciation of the exchange rate. Usually when evaluating exchange rate behavior, people tend to get fixed on the nominal exchange rate; one should take into account the real exchange rate, which represents the price ratio of ourselves and our allies brought to the same exchange rate (in adjusted nominal exchange rate). If the countries manage the prices, since the Central Banks target the inflations, consequently the nom-

within the limits of AMD 360-370 was a sign for the speculators not to use their information awareness and drag money from the public. As you have seen, the exchange rate has been self-regulated like a spring and stopped at the forecasted level. I can say now that the CBA policy is adequate, since the exchange rate came to balance. How can it be noticed? Pay attention to the margin, the difference between buying and selling. If some time ago the difference was 20-30 drams, today it constitutes 2-3 drams. Another wing of the policy was hidden from the public. Why was it so? Usually when exchange rate fluctuations happen speculative attacks emerged. They happen in the case of expectations for depreciation when for some period one refrains from concluding deals, buys currency and waits for the convenient moment. The speculative attacks hap-

The exchange rate change was inevitable, preconditioned by the behavior of fundamentals. It is extremely important that we didn’t have panic in financial markets. inal exchange rates should be adjusted to ensure internal and external equilibrium. The nominal exchange rate adjusting is based on the behavior of economic fundamentals that are productivity, trade conditions, and capital inflow. As a result of behavior of these three fundamentals we had appreciation tendency at first. Started from October-November of 2008 the behavior of economic fundamentals (the reduction of financial inflows, negative adjustments of trade conditions) implied that the exchange rate should depreciate. Though we already encountered the overvaluation, up until recently the exchange rate was kept fixed for one reason, which was to provide an opportunity to financial markets to adjust their positions, after which the process was left free. This “game” allowed the financial markets to prepare for depreciation. Otherwise, we would have witnessed strikes in the financial markets that could have got easily transformed into financial sector crisis. That would create stagnation in the economy and deepen the outcomes of the negative effects from the outside world. The announcement of the Central Bank and IMF that the dram value should be fixed

pen in one case, when you keep the exchange rate fixed for long time and the Central Bank reserves decline. The first leaders of these attacks can be participants of the financial markets. When they feel that the CB cannot consume the presented supply, they immediately start attacking; in other words, they present a great demand for dollars. The Central Bank sees that its reserves do not suffice, fully liberates the exchange rate, and the situation explodes and becomes unmanageable. We had this “game” ready for us and it was not allowed that the similar scenario came to life. When the CBA let the exchange rate float, although it had sufficient reserve to confront the first wave of speculative attack at the same time it had an agreement with the IMF around obtaining a loan worth USD 520 million. That was an additional signal for speculators and ensured the success of this “game”, while reducing the probability of the occurrence of speculators. At the end, the Central Bank announcement about the exchange rate threshold of AMD 360-370 was not a promise but a forecast that corresponded with reality. It was an additional sign for the public that the policy well thought-out and manageable.

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Survey | Crisis in Armenia

Opinions about the Global Economic Crisis and its Impact in Armenia ( S u r v e ye d i n Fe b r u a r y, 2 0 0 9 ) The effects of the global economic crisis impact business or organization within a sector differently. Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan has said that the crisis can even be felt in the most remote villages in Armenia. To summarize these effects, banking in Armenia has suffered the least while construction has been affected the most. Therefore, when asking specific companies how their businesses have been affected, usually the optimistic evaluations come from the banking sector, while those from construction companies are pessimistic. Below, we present the results of a survey conducted sector by sector:

The Financial Sector Armen Melikyan, General Director of NASDAQ OMX Armenia “I think it is obvious that the global crisis has affected the Armenian economy to some extent. It is not surprising, since no matter how weakly the Armenian economy is integrated with the world economy, links with international organizations and financial institutions are fairly strong and diversified. We are currently witnessing a decrease in the volumes of certain branches which, in my opinion, can become even worse in 2009. Under these conditions the companies are, in a sense, cautious of taking serious steps such as issuing and allocating new shares or the so called IPOs. Without the issuance of new shares one can hardly talk about the effective development and growth of capital market in Armenia. At the same time I would like to mention that for developing markets like Armenia the crisis not only poses challenges but also creates opportunities. The crisis “cleans” the market by creating favorable conditions for sustainable and transparent companies to enter the market and occupy a certain place there. Such companies always attract investors, even in crisis conditions.

Therefore, instead of delaying their plans for allocation, the companies should pay more attention to developing their actions at each stage and enter the market. I can say with certainty that Armenia has every prerequisite to avoid the destructive effects of the crisis.” Ararat Ghukasyan, Executive Director of Converse Bank “The events taking place in the world economy leave their negative effects on ours. It can be felt in the mining and construction sectors. The purchasing power of our population has decreased, causing a general drop in consumption. The financial crisis has not directly affected Converse Bank, since we do not depend on foreign investment and do not have liabilities. It means that, because our regular operations are concentrated in the Republic of Armenia, we are not influenced by foreign financial institutions.”

Survey | Crisis in Armenia Sargis Grigoryan, CEO of International Consulting Group “Companies engaged in almost all sectors of the economy are feeling the negative impact of the financial crisis. Currently, the consumer market is at serious risk and its failure will endanger economic stability. In this situation, companies see costs reduction as the only way to survive. Consulting or outsourcing is seen as a luxury. I think that in the short–term these developments will negatively affect the consulting companies but I am still optimistic regarding the longer-term developments and I anticipate new opportunities. Companies will prefer paying professional firms to receive faster and higher quality services, which will save their money in the long run. The crisis will make them change their costs nature rather than reduce them.”

Vahan Melkonyan, Executive Director of “Nairit Plant” CJSC “We have lost 42 million dollars in 2.5 years, partly due to the appreciation of the Armenian dram. The factory sells 52% of its production in Europe in dollars and euros, 15-16% in the US and 25% in Russia and CIS countries. Nevertheless, I should mention that the taxes and electricity bills are paid in Armenian drams. Our expenses last year were twice as high as they were 2 years ago. Our monthly exports account for 3.5-4 million dollars. It is clear that this turnover requires loan financing, but in Armenia one can receive 1-1.5 million dollars for couple of months in the best case scenario, since there is no competition between the banks. We sent 1528 employees on mandatory holidays in November 2008 but called back most of them in March.”

Bagrat Asatryan, Chairman of the Board of Garni Invest Universal Credit Organization “We can already talk of negative effects. We have had non-payments and delayed payments, but we are optimistic about overcoming these difficulties. We have to think very seriously in terms of banks, since there are problems there.”

Hrant Vardanyan, Chairman of Grand Holding “Not all countries have to suffer from the crisis, necessarily. All sectors can have slowdowns and all manufacturers can find themselves in tough situations. The crisis has had a very insignificant impact on our companies. We had good results last year and are going to continue the same way this year. We have 4300 employees with the average salary of AMD 120,000. We do not have any plans to either lay off employees or reduce salaries.”

Shushan Maranjyan, Director of Prime Insurance Brokers, Insurance Broker LLC “The crisis has affected us to some extent, though we have not analyzed the subject. We are involved with the insurance of freight and legal entities. The only thing I can say now is that our number of clients has decreased dramatically.”

Large Businesses

Maxim Hakobyan, General Director of Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Combine CJSC “When the prices for copper and molybdenum were rather high we enjoyed good profits, but in one month the molybdenum prices have fallen by 3.76 times and copper prices have fallen by 3 times. It is not the first time that we find ourselves in difficult situations like this. We experienced the same situation 10 years ago. We have gone from being a company with high profits to one with reasonable profits. Our profit for this year will decrease 3-4 times, but we will not resort to any personnel or salary cuts. On the other hand, the prices for materials and fuel have decreased, which affects the cost. We use immense amounts of diesel oil, the price of which has fallen by almost two times.” 67

Survey | Crisis in Armenia Rima Bekirskaya, General Director of Tosp (textiles) “We began feeling the effects of the crisis in October when payments from Russia were getting delayed. The exchange rate of ruble in Russia decreased and we started experiencing losses, as a result of which we developed budget debt. We had to fight to keep our account from being frozen by tax authorities.”

Information Technologies Hovik Musayelyan, General Director of Synopsys Armenia “Not only do information technologies constitute a separate branch of the economy, but they are also the driving force behind economic progress in general. It is natural that the global crisis directly affects the development of the IT sector. The current situation requires companies to make cuts in their investments and expenses. Nevertheless, different companies have different approaches to the problem based on their strategies, current financial situations, and their tactical positions in combating global challenges. Some companies make serious cuts in their engineering staff, while others significantly decrease their capital, travel expenses, etc. Synopsys is pretty viable in the current economic crisis situation. We have finished 2008 with perfect indicators by significantly exceeding expectations. Synopsys is entering 2009 as a financially stable company with high cash reserves, without any debts and having a strong reserve fund that

isolates business risks for its customers. Synopsys Armenia will not turn to any personnel or budgetary cuts. Moreover, we have announced the availability of new positions, which you can find on Synopsys Armenia web site. Nevertheless, it is possible that we will cut some expenses which are not prioritized, such as the number of business travels, etc. We are sure that the good results Synopsys displayed in 2008 set a strong foundation; this is extremely important especially under the conditions of unpredictable developments in the world economy.” Hovhannes Avoyan, Chairman of Union of Information Technology Enterprises, Executive Director of Sourcio CJSC “Bigger companies are more affected by the crisis. One example is the closing of Lykos, which definitely happened as a result of the crisis. At the same time, the crisis creates various opportunities. If one has sufficient funds, it`s a right time to set up a new company, as well as to grow and develop, since the field is being cleaned up and some competitive advantages are put forth; it is also easier to find professional personnel.”

Consruction and Real Estate Sergey Azaryan, Head of the Marketing and Consuming Department at Griar CJSC (construction, architecture and engineering, manufacturing). “Economic crisis has affected projects of our organization. The problem for all our custmers when it comes to construction is the absence of

Survey | Crisis in Armenia

consumers. Construction companies in Armenia mostly build apartments for foreign organizations or investors. We are completing the old orders (funded by us, not the foreign investors), but we are not starting new projects, since it is hard to forecast what the market will be like in two years. It does not make sense to start doing things now, especially when you do not know what will happen in the future. We would have started implementing new projects if the financial crisis did not occur.”

Shahbaz Harutyunov, Executive Director of HAYKAPAL CJSC (planning, architecture, construction, engineering) “We have foreign investors, but now it`s hard to find money abroad. We will see if we can receive credit from the local banks. The fluctuations of the prices of construction materials have also affected our operations. We have stopped everything now, since there is no demand. On the other hand the construction costs went down to some extent and it is a good time to start the construction. We have not had labour cuts, since we plan to increase the volumes of our operations by 3-4 times compared to last year. The only obstacle is that we lack funding. We are an organization and while our employees also work in other places we are always in touch with them; if needed, they come back to continue working with us.” Hakob Baghdasaryan, Executive Director of Akcern (real estate) “The real estate market is comparatively tranquil, which cannot continue for a long time. One of the ways to reach financial stability is by investing in real estate. It is simply a waiting game now but it has to end at some point. I expect some activity on the investment side soon.” Galina Yedigaryan, Director of Makared CJSC “Our company is involved with construction and real estate. People are waiting to see what will come of this situation. They wait to see how the market will react, what the prices will be and how much the price of houses will decrease. Besides, the dollar exchange rate is fluctuating and we do not know what to expect. The exchange rate is extremely important, since estimates on the house are made in dollars. I cannot say anything until the situation is stabilized.”

Tourism Karen Antashyan, Director of Imega Tour travel agency “Our organization is involved with incoming tourism. Our guests are mostly from the U.S. and Canada. As a result of the world economic crisis the number of tourists has decreased by 70%. I

Survey | Crisis in Armenia Small Businesses

did not make any personnel cuts, but currently we are only concerned with survival without even knowing how long we can last.” Hasmik Petrosyan, Director of Globe Travel travel agency “Our company operates in the area of outgoing tourism. In February the number of tourists from Armenia has decreased by 10-15% compared to January. This probably has something to do with the global economic crisis. I hope that the decrease will not continue and the situation will stabilize.” Artak Chibukhchyan, Executive Director of Apaga travel agency “I have set up a recreation zone in the village of Enokavan in the area of Tavush, where we offer horseback riding to our clients. The global crisis has not affected us in any way. On the contrary, after November the number of visitors has increased.”

Sousanna Margaryan, saleswoman at Hrazdan Fair “We have particularly felt the effect of the global economic crisis after the January holidays. There is no trade for days and cash registers add to that problem. We have had a 50-60% sale on our clothes, but it is no use. People prefer wearing their old clothes, since there is no certainty in the future. Many importers prefer selling their merchandise by themselves and lay off their assistants to save money. I am lucky in that respect, though I do not know how long this situation will continue.” Marina Hakobyan, clothes importer and saleswoman at Tashir Trade Center “I sell clothes worth AMD 70,000 at AMD 50,000 to cover their cost. I have so much merchandise that I can continue without importing new ones next year. I used to have two booths. Now I have only one, which I find extremely hard to maintain. Besides that, I had two employees but after laying off both of them I am all by myself now. I understand perfectly well that two families have lost their incomes, but I can do nothing about it. The customs value of the goods has risen up to 8 dollars from the initial 5-6. I do not even know if I have to stay in this non-profitable business or start looking for a job abroad.” Ararat Vardanyan, self-employed taxi driver “Our business is not going well and I do not know if it is because of the international economic crisis. We do not receive any orders and do not drive

Survey | Crisis in Armenia for hours. People who used to take taxies all the time prefer fixed route taxies or buses now. For example, before one would rarely see a parent with 2-3 kids getting on a fixed route taxi. Now, this is a common trend. I am extremely happy if I can make AMD 1,000-2,000 a day. Our income was reduced by 70-80% compared with the year before. I took car loan from the bank, which I am finding difficult to repay now.”

RA citizens

Varouzhan Petrosyan, 45 years old (used to be involved with overseeing work at construction sites) “It has already been 6 years that I have had to go abroad to earn money and then come back. This year, I had to ask my family to send me money to return. There was no reason to stay. I worked day and night for seven months and returned home without any money. I have two daughters who are students and I have to pay their tuition. I do not know how I will do it or if my daughters will simply be expelled from their school. The crisis has put everyone in extremely difficult conditions. In the past I have not experienced a situation when I

was not paid for my work and could not take care of my family. I am job-hunting now and receive the same answer everywhere: “It’s a crisis. There is no work.” Marat Hovhannisyan, 57 years old, unemployed electrician “I used to work in several production units and received salary equal to AMD 60,000. I could hardly make ends meet. Starting from February 1 our director has kept only 2 employees while other employees were sent on mandatory holidays. He justified his actions with the impact of the global economic crisis. 20-25 people were added to the ranks of the unemployed. I do not want to mention the name of the production unit, since we are friends with the director and I do not want him to have problems. The authorities assure us that the world economic crisis has not affected Armenia, but the increased number of unemployed people points to a different situation.” Vachagan Baghdasaryan, 33 years old, unemployed “I used to work as a porter in a store in the Bangladesh district. I worked hard all day long. I was told not to come to work starting January 1, since there was no trade going on. The store owner kept only one worker who he had known previously. Now, when I apply for a job to a store or supermarket, I receive the same answer everywhere: “We do not know what to do with our own employees and end up firing them. How can we hire you?”

Ð³ñóáõÙ | Ö•Ý³Å³ÙÁ Ð³Û³ëï³ÝáõÙ

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Feature | Capital Markets in Armenia

Capital Market in Armenia has Development Preconditions By Alexander Aramyan

What is a capital market? A capital market is a securities market (usually shares and bonds) where companies and the state can attract or invest mid-term and long-term means. The initial meaning of the term “capital” is the “main assets” or “main amount”, which is derived from the Latin word “main”. The capital market is comprised of a primary market and a secondary market. In the primary market the newly issued shares are sold by subscription. In the secondary market the issued shares are purchased and sold amongst the investors by licensed market participants. In the secondary market the circulation usually takes place in the stock exchange, an organized and regulated market. Capital market basically means the stock exchange and the infrastructures related to it. The participants of the Armenian capital market are the stock exchange, issuers, investment companies and banks, the Central Depository and other companies involved with depository activities. The Central Bank is in charge of the regulation and supervision of the market. The

capital market directs the savings of the investors to companies from different sectors. These companies then use the funds to implement their business plans by issuing shares or bonds. Market prices of all the circulated securities are formed in the secondary market by providing opportunities for the shareholders and managers of issuing companies to be constantly informed about their investments and the real cost of their business. The Armenian Stock Exchange (ARMEX) was founded in 2000 and the first commercial transaction took place in 2001. In 2005 the exchange trade in foreign currency began in the Armenian Stock Exchange. In 2008 a deal was concluded on OMX AB, buying the Armenian Foreign exchange and Central Depository. On January 23, 2008 the trade of state bonds commenced in the Stock Exchange. In February 2008 the merger of NASDAQ and OMX AB was complete. Thus NASDAQ OMX Group, the largest stock exchange company in the world was created. The Armenian stock exchange was renamed and is currently called NASDAQ OMX Armenia

Feature | Capital Markets in Armenia The general director of the Armenian Stock Exchange, Armen Melikyan, mentions that the stock exchange is a place where the circulated shares can be of interest for the investors and not for the stock exchange. According to Melikyan, the first goal of the stock exchange is to protect both the rights of the investors and the safety of their investments.

Capital market in Armenia In 2008, thanks to the issuances of private companies, the bond market became much more active in Armenia. Before that, bond issuance was mainly the prerogative of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. While in 2007 there were only 2 bond issuances with a total volume of AMD 1.3 billion, in 2008 there were 11 issuances with a volume of AMD 5.6 billion. The activation of the bond market coincided with NASDAQ-OMXâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s purchase of the Armenian Stock Exchange, though serious preparatory works had been conducted in the stock exchange even before that. Nevertheless, the entry of the well-known operator built the confidence of investors. There were expectations that NASDAQ-OMX would facilitate the development of the stock market. Nevertheless, these expectations were not realized due to the global economic crisis. In recent months, the stock market has reflected a decline in transactions but the market is small even without that factor. Under these conditions the issuance of corporate coupon bonds can be viewed as a serious success. There is a need to mention that, as opposed to shares, bonds do not give investors the right to participate in company management processes. 6 out of 10 bond issuances were carried out by non-financial sector companies who were able to offer rates of 9-11%, while loan payments to banks would have been up to 18-20%. It should be noted that in the Armenian market the bond interest rates are mainly adjusted according to the bank deposit interest rates, and are thus extremely advantageous to non-financial 80

sector companies. Nevertheless, starting from the second half of 2008, banks are also interested in the process of bond issuance as an alternative way to raise funds. Even now, the nominal values of the issued bonds are not high (AMD 1000-50000), therefore any Armenian citizen can purchase them. The smallest value bond (AMD 1000) was issued by Elite Group. The leader in the bond market is HayRusGazArd, which implemented two issuances at a billion drams each. IMEX Group also has an issuance of 1 billion drams. Valetta has issued 3 bonds with a combined value of AMD 1.3 billion. Currently there are no long-term bonds issued in Armenia. The longest ones, with a term of 3 years, are issued by HayRusGazArd and Converse Bank. The RA Central Bank is ready to accept the bonds issued by companies that received grades between C- and A+ by the CB as collateral when signing repossession agreements with banks. Some of these companies are IMEX Group, Valetta, ACP, and HayRusGazArd.

Yerevan conference One of the capital market participants, Grant Thornton Amyot consulting and auditing company, with the support of the American Chamber of Commerce in Armenia, RA Central Bank, RA Ministry of Economy, Union of Banks of Armenia, NASDAX OMX Armenia, USAID/Financial Sector Deepening Project, Marriott Armenia hotel, MEDIAMAX Information Agency, CapitalMarket.banks.am website, Basis and Basis-

Feature | Capital Markets in Armenia Class Magazine, initiated a number of serious public awareness raising activities with regard to the capital market. The “Capital Markets in Armenia” conference was held on February 27. The participants of the conference were the representatives of the Armenian business sector. One unique aspect of the conference was that the speakers were well known international experts representing NASDAX OMX, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and Grant Thornton Great Britain. When answering a question about the goals of the conference, Grant Thornton Amyot managing partner Gurgen Hakobyan mentioned, “First of all, the goal is to provide opportunity for the Armenian business community to receive information on alternative tools used in international practice but not yet fully implemented in Armenia. The second goal is to promote these processes and bring the supply and demand into one room, so that business people can receive answers both from the government representatives and experts. Thus, the main goal is to create a platform that will allow the processes taking place in the capital market to accelerate.” The general director of Armenian Stock Exchange Armen Melikyan states that, as a result of the global financial economic crisis, investments have decreased and IPOs (initial public offering) have been suspended almost everywhere. Nevertheless, it is the right time now to inform, prepare and educate potential investors. That is the reason why Melikyan thinks it is extremely important that the event was initiated by one of the market participants. Shortly after the conference on March 3, Artsakh HPP OJSC announced the first initial public offering (IPO) in the entire history of Armenian capital market. A total of 3,285,715 shares were issued at the value of AMD 1050 for a total amount of AMD 3.45 billion. The consultation and allocation was done by Armenbrok OJSC. Artsakh HPP is one of the leading energy-generating companies in the NKR, and satisfies 40-60% of the energy demand there. The company generates energy using NKR Sar-

sang HPP, located on Sarsang water reservoir. The HPP has 50-megawatt capacity and produces 90140 million kilowatt-hours of energy per year. The funds collected from the allocation will be directed to the construction of three small HPPs on Tartar, which is the biggest river in NKR. The new HPPs will allow for satisfying more than 85% of NKR internal energy demand. Armenian capital market was somewhat affected by switching to the floating currency rate on March 3. Melikyan mentions that there was a decline in bond transactions and bond issuances as a result of dram depreciation. “Bond trading will be minimized until the stagnation passes and the market digests dram depreciation”, says Melikyan.

Developed and growing markets Though there are developed capital markets in the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan, there are significant differences between them. The most developed among them is the U.S. capital market, which stands alone for its branching, high level of accumulated capital and foreign investment. The global crisis has seriously affected developed capital markets, but instilled hope for developing markets. The markets in developing countries are inferior to the markets in industrially developed countries. The difference lies in the fact that state and mixed companies are extremely active there. Nevertheless, there are new perspectives for growing markets within crisis conditions. For the investors of developed countries they are viewed as alternative tools. Armenia is in advantageous position in 81

Feature | Capital Markets in Armenia this respect, shown by the presence of NASDAQ OMX in the country. Gurgen Hakobyan elaborated on this, saying, â&#x20AC;&#x153;Capital market, specifically in London, has been operating for at least one hundred years. There is deep meaning in all this, and the tradition and culture are in place. Besides, there is public participation in all of these processes. Any person (investor) can sell his shares by making one phone call. It means that ordinary people also share this culture. A good precondition in Armenia is that we have NASDAQ here. If we are active and able to implement the tools correctly we can serve as an alternative. For example, look at the activity in Warsaw. Companies from all countries are being listed there. If everything goes smoothly after some time we can discuss the involvement of regional businessmen in the Armenian Stock Exchange. We talk about NASDAQ and NASDAQ is NASDAQ everywhere, meaning that it is not important if NASDAQ is listed in New York or in Armenia.

It should be mentioned that one of the most successful developing markets is the Warsaw stock exchange, where 94 IPOs took place in 2008. Warsawâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s success was greatly accounted for by the pension funds, which created the opportunity to direct the funds of the middle class to the stock exchange. Armenia also has such a program. The pension reforms will commence in 2010. According to the Minister of Economy Nerses Yeritzyan, they will serve as an incentive for the capital market development. As for the CIS countries, Russian and Kazakh capital markets are relatively developed. Nevertheless the regional director of NASDAQ OMX Johan Fredholm announced during the conference that Armenia has the best technical conditions in place of all the CIS countries. It gives hope that the capital market in Armenia will develop rapidly.

Scheme: The Circulation of Bonds in Capital Markets (provided by NASDAQ OMX Armenia)

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Expert Opinion | Tax

By Paul Cooper (PWC)

I am a linguistically-challenged expatriate. It means I speak English, know enough Russian to say “ß íå ãîâîðþ ïî-ðóññêè” when approached in the street, and can read the letter “a” in Armenian. Not surprisingly, I am often met with the question, “what can a foreigner contribute to Armenian clients when all of the law and practice is in the Armenian language?” The answer is a fresh perspective (or at least one that is borrowed from abroad). If I did not enjoy the challenge, I would not be here. And there are some unique challenges for a linguistically-challenged expatriate trying to understand Armenian tax law. The primary challenge is to work out what the law actually says. There is a collection of English translations of various laws on the www.parliament.am website, and these can be useful to get the flavour of local laws. Care is required though; the English versions are not up to date and the translations are not always reliable. More often than not though, the basic problem is the local reinterpretation that is applied to laws. On the face of it, Armenia’s laws are not that different from those found elsewhere in the world? Life would be so much easier if interpretations were also similar. Deduction of business expenses – does the taxman really understand a business better than the businessman himself? The basic rule for deducting expenses is found in Article 10(1) of the Law on Profits Tax. “When determining taxable profit, gross income shall be reduced in the amount of necessary expenses

Taxation – Even Finding the Law is a Challenge

incurred in deriving it and supported by documentation.” The central question is when an expense should be considered “necessary.” In developed countries, the question generally reduces to whether a prudent businessman would be prepared to incur a particular expense in the furtherance of his business. Judges are also very reluctant to step in and impose their judgment of what might constitute a sensible business expense over that of the businessman himself. The bottom line is that the businessman should know his business and his objectives better than anyone else. If he or she considers an expense is worth spending money on because of the perceived benefits to the business, who are the courts (or the tax authorities) to say with hindsight that a different judgment should have been exercised. There are some clear exceptions to this principle, but these generally relate to expenses that generate a pecuniary benefit to the businessman. When you take your clients out for dinner, it may be difficult to determine whether the occasion is purely business, or whether the businessman is really just enjoying a good night at the taxman’s expenses. If one is prepared to look closely enough, there are ways to show whether or not such expenses have business benefits. In practice, many countries bypass the problem by legislating blunt apportionment rules. However, the critical observation is this. When an expense appears to generate a pecuniary (personal) benefit to the businessman or his friends and relatives, there may be basis for questioning whether an expense is necessary. However, when no such

Expert Opinion | Tax potential benefit exists, foreign courts and tax authorities accept that they would be out of line if they sought to impose their business judgment over that of the businessman. Why should Armenia be different? Let’s take a few examples. A business decides to screen its customers to determine whether accepting them as clients might cause a risk of losses in the future. From a business perspective, this is a sensible precaution. However, I am aware that there is at least one case that got to court in Armenia because the tax authorities argued that the expense was not necessary because there was no income that arose as a direct consequence of that expense. When a local company obtains services from a foreign company, it may agree as part of the arrangements to meet accommodation costs directly. I understand that the tax authorities suggest the accommodation is not a deductible expense because the individuals benefitting from the accommodation are not employees of the local company so there consequently are no direct obligations with those individuals to provide such benefits. Yet if those same benefits are paid directly by the individuals, reimbursed by the foreign company, and then included in the fee charged to the local company, there is no problem with deductibility. Where is the difference? Either way, the local company accepts that the accommodation expense is something that it will need to pay, directly or indirectly, if it wants to obtain services from the foreign company. It should not have to jump through hoops merely because there is a big question mark over whether the tax authorities will accept the local company’s business judgment. Perhaps more than any other issue, if the tax authorities respected that a businessman is in a far better position to make a judgment on whether expenses should be incurred for his business than a tax inspector ever will be, we could reduce the fear taxpayers have that they can expect arbitrary assessments to be made when the tax inspectors comes to visit.

The documentation dilemma – is the paperwork really necessary? The World Bank report, Paying Taxes 2009: The global picture, ranked Armenia 150th out of the 181 countries surveyed for the ease of paying taxes. The overall tax burden was not considered excessive (Armenia ranked 68th). However, the time required to comply with tax obligations (Armenia ranked 176th), together with the large number of payments Armenian businesses are required to make (Armenia ranked 149th) contributed to the overall poor ranking. One problem has already been highlighted above. If an accountant is trying to second-guess what the taxman might second-guess about the merits of a company’s business objectives, and is conscious of the huge penalties that result if he or she gets the answer “wrong,” we create an environment of uncertainty where basic tasks take much longer than they should. A second requirement for deducting expenses though is that they must be documented. This leads to the interesting question of what documentation needs to consist of. For example, when a service is completed, is an invoice and evidence of payment sufficient or do I need to have an acceptance act? The practical answer is that the authorities probably expect one, but you should be able to get by without it. It is at this point that the sensible advisor says, “Hang on a minute, why are we concerned with what the authorities might expect?” Surely with something as important as the documentation required to support an expense, the authorities must have published an official document, providing all of the detail.” Well, yes they have provided a document – Order No. 525 dated 25 April 1998. I have been assured by several people in Armenia that it covers all the issues. The problem is, what does it say when you read what is actually there, rather than accepting what people tell you is there. In that case, you will see

Expert Opinion | Tax from the opening paragraph that the Order covers transactions involving the acquisition of assets and inventory. Do you notice anything missing from the covered transactions? Sure, services were referred to in the Order, but only in the context of services incorporated into the value of assets and inventory. That leaves you, the taxpayer, with a basic problem. How do you defend the quality of your documentation for services when there is no relevant standard and the authorities are trying to apply Order No. 525? It is a situation that is ripe for … some form of settlement to be reached. I have been advised that my text is outdated, and that Order No. 525 was amended in October 2008 to address the services issue. I am still trying to get an updated English translation. Where do we go from here? As I mentioned my last article, the government has published an impressive Tax Administration Strategy Program for 2008-2011 that, if implemented successfully, will give Armenia a much leaner and more focused tax administration. There are also some encouraging signs that the government is willing to consult and listen to businesses about how the tax system can become more effective. One aspect of the reform initiative is that it proposes measures to reduce corruption. Electronic filing is an excellent example. If I can file my return electronically, I no longer run the risk that the tax official will refuse to accept my tax return (and so impose penalties) if it is computer generated rather than hand written. Data is transferred directly to and processed by tax authority servers, so there is no chance for human “error” in the calculation of taxes payable. If we take that idea further, key issues that should be reviewed are: • What level of documentation is really necessary to prove a business expense? • Can the Order on documentation be tightened so it does not leave room for Tax Inspectors to interpret the Order broadly so that taxpayers can never be 100% certain of

what documents they require to prevent an assessment by the authorities on a documentation technicality? • How many returns and payments are really needed? If advance profit tax was quarterly or even bi-annual, would the timing impact on the government really be that significant? If yes, could a transitional rule deal with this effect so we can put a more compliancefriendly solution in place in the longer term? • To what extent should the tax authorities need to exercise discretion before the law may be applied. A classic case is the requirement that taxpayers apply for relief before a treaty may be implied. If the rules in the treaty are clear and the tax authorities always have the right to pursue a tax agent for deficiency taxes and penalties if the tax agent gets it wrong, why does the application process help? If anything, it creates the opportunity for facilitation payments to be extracted during the application process … and for relief to be granted in situations when it perhaps should not arise. If the government is willing, it should not be hard to make small changes that could generate huge benefits in terms of a more predictable tax system, and a correspondingly better business environment.

Reflections from Georgia – a challenge to AmCham in Armenia I was fortunate to visit Georgia in the last week of February when our neighbouring Chamber had a couple of tax issues on the agenda. The first was the release of the Georgia Pocket Tax Book by the Georgian Ministry of Finance. The second was a Committee meeting when Joseph Guttentag, a double tax treaty specialist from the United States, spoke on prospects for a GeorgiaUnited States tax treaty. A couple of points struck me. The first is that Georgia has been making concerted efforts to make a tax environment that is more encourag-

Expert Opinion | Tax ing to investors. Particularly notable are the plans to reduce withholding taxes on dividends and interest to 0% over the next few years. Georgia still has its problems. Like Armenia, the process one needs to go through to confirm an entitlement to treaty relief is cumbersome (and, in my view, unnecessary; many countries in the world have no such mechanisms because the penalties if a tax agent gets it wrong are considered sufficient protection). However, I met several foreign advisors that are working closely with the tax and finance authorities to provide assistance in improving the system, and there is a sense that Georgia may more open to external ideas than Armenia. The second was the level of Chamber activity. In addition to the two tax-related meetings, there was also a Chamber luncheon when two speakers shared about how the USâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s promised USD 1 billion in aid funding was to be allocated. Perhaps we should take that as a challenge to the Chamber in Armenia. A revived AmCham tax committee may be a good start.

The author leads the PricewaterhouseCoopers Tax & Legal Services teams in Armenia and Georgia. PricewaterhouseCoopers (www. pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance, tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its clients and their stakeholders. More than 155,000 people in 153 countries across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop fresh perspectives and practical advice. PricewaterhouseCoopers opened an office in Yerevan in September 2007. Before joining PricewaterhouseCoopers, the author spent 15 years with the New Zealand Inland Revenue Department working in both operations (nine years) and international tax policy (six years). With PricewaterhouseCoopers, he has spent six years consulting in the Philippines and two years in Ukraine before coming to Armenia in August 2008.

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Ð»ÕÇÝ³ÏÁ Õ»Ï³í³ñáõÙ ¿ Ð³Û³ëï³ÝáõÙ öñ³ÛëáõáÃ»ñÑ³áõëÎáõå»ñë ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ³ñÏ³ÛÇÝ ¨ Çñ³í³µ³Ý³Ï³Ý µ³ÅÇÝÁ: öñ³ÛëáõáÃ»ñÑ³áõëÎáõå»ñë ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÁ (www.pwc.com) ³ÝóÏ³óÝáõÙ ¿ ³ñ¹ÛáõÝ³µ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñÇ ³áõ¹Çï, Ù³ïáõóáõÙ ¿ Ñ³ñÏ³ÛÇÝ ¨ ËáñÑñ¹³ïí³Ï³ÝÇ Í³é³ÛáõÃÛáõÝÝ»ñ, Ó»éù µ»ñ»Éáí Ñ³ë³ñ³ÏáõÃÛ³Ý íëï³ÑáõÃÛáõÝÁ ¨ Ù»Í³óÝ»Éáí Ñ³×³Ëáñ¹Ý»ñÇ ¨ Ýñ³Ýó ß³Ñ³éáõÝ»ñÇ Ï³ñ¨áñáõÃÛáõÝÁ: ÀÝÏ»ñáõÃÛáõÝÁ ³ßË³ñÑÇ 153 »ñÏñÝ»ñáõÙ áõÝÇ ·ñ³ë»ÝÛ³ÏÝ»ñ, áñï»Õ ³í»ÉÇ ù³Ý 155,000 ³ßË³ï³ÏÇóÝ»ñ ÏÇëáõÙ »Ý Çñ»Ýó Ñ³ÙÁÝ¹Ñ³Ýáõñ Ùïù»ñÁ, ÷áñÓÁ ¨ ÉáõÍáõÙÝ»ñÁ, áñáÝó Ýå³ï³ÏÝ ¿ ëï»ÕÍ»É Ýáñ Ñ»é³ÝÏ³ñÝ»ñ ¨ ·áñÍÝ³Ï³Ý ËáñÑñ¹³ïíáõÃÛáõÝ ïñ³Ù³¹ñ»É: öñ³ÛëáõáÃ»ñÑ³áõëÎáõå»ñë ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ³Û³ëï³ÝÛ³Ý ·ñ³-ë»ÝÛ³ÏÇ µ³óáõÙÁ ï»ÕÇ ¿ áõÝ»ó»É 2007 Ã. ë»åï»Ùµ»ñÇÝ: Ü³Ëù³Ý öñ³ÛëáõáÃ»ñÑ³áõëÎáõå»ñëáõÙ ³ßË³ï»ÉÁ` Ñ»ÕÇÝ³ÏÁ ßáõñç 15 ï³ñÇ ³ßË³ï»É ¿ Üáñ ¼»É³Ý¹Ç³ÛÇ ä»ï³Ï³Ý »Ï³ÙáõïÝ»ñÇ ·áñÍ³Ï³ÉáõÃÛáõÝáõÙ (ÇÝÁ ï³ñÇ) ¨ ØÇç³½·³ÛÇÝ Ñ³ñÏ³ÛÇÝ ù³Õ³ù³Ï³ÝáõÃÛ³Ý µ³ÅÝáõÙ (í»ó ï³ñÇ): Ü³Ëù³Ý 2008 Ã. û·áëïáëÇÝ Ð³Û³ëï³Ý ·³ÉÁ, Ñ»ÕÇÝ³ÏÁ í»ó ï³ñÇ ³ßË³ï»É ¿ öñ³ÛëáõáÃ»ñÑ³áõëÎáõå»ñë ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý ýÇÉÇåÇÝÛ³Ý ·ñ³ë»ÝÛ³ÏáõÙ, ³ÛÝáõÑ»ï¨ »ñÏáõ ï³ñÇ` ÁÝÏ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý àõÏñ³ÇÝ³ÛÇ ·ñ³ë»ÝÛ³ÏáõÙ:

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