UKRAINE – BELGIUM Nataliya MYKOLSKA Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade – Trade Representative of Ukraine
ECONOMIC GROWTH
RETAIL TRADE AND REAL WAGE
REAL GDP
% of the corresponding period of the previous year
IIQ 14
IIIQ 14
IVQ 14
IQ 15
IIQ 15
IVQ 15
1,4
1,1
-1,0 -1,0
IIIQ 15
IQ 16
0,1
IIQ 16
-3,7
-6,6
-17,0
-15,8
-12,6
-9,9
-0,7 -4,2 -4,7 -3,3 -4,1
-4,3
-1,4
-1,4 -3,5
-7,2
0,6
4,6
3,5
Real wage 6,17,3
Retale trade
6,8 0,8
-2,7
9,0
1,3
2,9 0,7
1,6
3,9 2,3 2,4 1,8
-1,7 -1,0
-4
-5,3 -6,4
-3,5
-1,4
-5,7
-6,8 -7,5 -13,2 -17,3
-20,1
-14,7
-21,1 -23,5 -23,7
-14,4 -17,0
-22,6
-23,9 -24,7 -23,6
-22,7 -22,3
-21,4
GDP, % cumulative of the corresponding period of the previous year GDP, % of the corresponding quarter of the previous year GDP, % of the previous quarter (sesonally adjusted)
1М-14 2М-14 3М-14 4М-14 5М-14 6М-14 7М-14 8М-14 9М-14 10М-14 11М-14 12М-14 1М-15 2М-15 3М-15 4М-15 5М-15 6М-15 7М-15 8М-15 9М-15 10М-15 11М-15 12М-15 1М-16 2М-16 3М-16 4М-16 5М-16 6М-16 7М-16
IQ 14
INDUSTRY
INDUSTRY, WORLD PRICES FOR BLACK ROLLING % of the respective month of the previous year
INDUSTRY % of the corresponding period of the previous year
7,0
4,3 -0,3
2,0
-2,4 -3,0
4,8
-1,8 -6,7
-1,4
-2,1
-5,8
-1,7
-5,1
-8,9 -11,4
-15,5
-21,1
-23,2 -28,3
industry -31,5
-0,7
-12,8
0,1
-15,1
Food products
-11,3
Pharmaceutical products
-10,9
Rubber and plastics, other non-metallic
-11,2
-29,1
the average price for black rolling
0,3
-23
Electricity
-28,0
-0,7
-21,6
-22,3
-18,1
0,1
-19,7
Woodworking, pulp and paper, printing
-15,6
-23,0
Chemicals
Mining and quarrying -19,9
-18,0
8,2
-24,9
Engineering
-15,1
-13,0
14,8
Coke and refined petroleum -35,1 Metallurgy
0,7 0,4 -1,4
-4,6
-4,2 -8,0
0,2
-0,2
7,4
January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July
-33,0
Textiles
2015
0,9
-8 -40
2014
7,4
-30
-20
-10
2016
7 months 2016
7 months 2015
0
10
20
INDUSTRY AND CONSTRUCTION
INDUSTRY: INDUSTRIAL GROUPS
CONSTRUCTION % of the corresponding period of the previous year
% of the corresponding period of the previous year
investment goods
6,3 4,9
7,0
4,3 -0,3
2,0
-2,4 -3,0
0,7
-4,6 -1,4
-6,7
-2,1
-4,2
-13,0
0,4 -1,4
-1,7
-5
-15,1
-11,4
-10,8
-9,5
-19,9 -21,1
-22,3
-23,2 -28,3
the average price for black rolling
-29,1
industry
-25
January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July
-33,0
2014
2015
2016
-6,7
-11,7 -14,7
-13,8 -17,3
-18,7 -20,3
-18,5
-18,3 -21,1
-19,2
-24,9
-31,5
-30
0,3 -1,4 -2,9
-16,1
-15
-20
-11,1
-14,3
-18,1
-23,0
-28,0
-3,6
-10
-15,5 -15,6
-18,0
0,9
0
-5,1
-8,9
-5,8
2,6
-21,8
-24,0 -27,6 -29,5
-25,1
1М-14 2М-14 3М-14 4М-14 5М-14 6М-14 7М-14 8М-14 9М-14 10М-14 11М-14 12М-14 1М-15 2М-15 3М-15 4М-15 5М-15 6М-15 7М-15 8М-15 9М-15 10М-15 11М-15 12М-15 1М-16 2М-16 3М-16 4М-16 5М-16 6М-16 7М-16
-8,0
3,3
Consumer durables
0,2
4,8
-1,8
5
CONSUMER PRICE INDICES AND EXCHANGE RATE OF HRYVNIA
CONSUMER PRICE INDICES AND EXCHANGE RATE OF UAH / USD, %
CONSUMER PRICE INDICES, %
60
18
54,8 16
to corresponding month of previous year
15,6 50
Changes in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (to previous month)
58,4
to previous month
55,3 40
14
12
51,9
46,6
45,8
10
Devaluation (+) / revaluation (-), average for month (to previous month)
30
40,3
8
6
17,3
20
5,7
28,5 3,6
21,8
20,9
10
17,5
3,4 2,2
3,8
2,9 0,4
1,9
3,1
8,4 7,5 6,9 7,9
2,2
2,3 -1,0
2,0
0,9
1,0
0
1,2
6,2
8,3 1,5
10,8
0,6
0,3
1,5
0,1 -0,3
1,7 2
3,6
0,1 0,2 1,0 0
-2,4
-0,6 -2,0
1М-14 2М-14 3М-14 4М-14 5М-14 6М-14 7М-14 8М-14 9М-14 10М-14 11М-14 12М-14 1М-15 2М-15 3М-15 4М-15 5М-15 6М-15 7М-15 8М-15 9М-15 10М-15 11М-15 12М-15 1М-16 2М-16 3М-16 4М-16 5М-16 6М-16 7М-16 8М-16
0,5 0,2
12,6
4
-2,8 -1,7
-1,0
-10
-2
-4
Jan.14 Feb.14 Mar. 14 Apr. 14 May 14 June 14 July 14 Aug. 14 Sept. 14 Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Dec. 14 Jan.15 Feb.15 Mar. 15 Apr. 15 May 15 June 15 July 15 Aug. 15 Sept. 15 Oct. 15 Nov. 15 Dec. 15 Jan.16 Feb.16 Mar. 16 Apr. 16 May 16 June 16 July 16 Aug. 16
10,9
1,2
4,4
2,6
INVESTMENTS
CAPITAL INVESTMENT BY FINANCING SOURCES IN I Q 2016
CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND GDP % of the corresponding period of the previous year
19,6
21,3 16,8
Capital Investments
GDP 9,6
8,3
-1,3 -1,3 -1,2 2,4
2,8
1,2
0
-1
0,7
-2,7 -3,7
0,2
-6,6
-1,7
-3,9 -14,8 -9,2
-7,9 -10,3
0,1
0,8
-6
-14,2 -17
-17,5
-15,8
I-IIQ 16
ІQ 16
I-IVQ 15
I-IIIQ 15
I-IIQ 15
ІQ 15
I-IVQ 14
I-IIIQ 14
I-IIQ 14
ІQ 14
I-IVQ 13
I-IIIQ 13
I-IIQ 13
ІQ 13
I-IVQ 12
I-IIIQ 12
I-IIQ 12
-23 -24,1 ІQ 12
the state and local budgets; 3,9 other financing sources; 2,1
funds of foreign investors; 3,7
bank loans and other lending; 8,1 public funds for construction of own's housing; 10
-9,9 -12,6
-12,9
% to the total volume
own funds of enterprises and organizations; 72,2
EXPORT OF #UA GOODS TO #BE
IMPORT OF #BE GOODS TO #UA
IMPLEMENTATION OF EU-UA DCFTA
The detailed action plan of implementation the DCFTA Chapter of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement for the 2016-2019 years was approved by the Government of Ukraine
The national standardization body – Ukrainian research and development and educational center of standardization, certification and quality control was established
The strategy for the development of the technical regulation system
till 2020 was approved by the Government of Ukraine
IMPLEMENTATION OF EU-UA DCFTA
The competent body and determination of control and supervisory functions in the sphere of sanitary and phytosanitary measures - State Service of Ukraine on issues of food safety and consumer protection was created
The comprehensive strategy on implementation of SPS Chapter was approved by the Government of Ukraine
The National Public Procurement Strategy was approved by the Government of Ukraine
OPPORTUNITIES FOR EU BUSINESS UNDER EU-UA DCFTA
#
Fewer duties
#
Investment opportunities
#
Opportunities for service provide
#
Transparent business conditions
#
Access to Ukrainian public tenders
#
Sourcing opportunities
#
Fair competition
#
Less red tape
UKRAINE-EU DCFTA: THE TRADE RESULTS
JAN – AUG 2016
CHANGES
TURNOVER
EXPORT
IMPORT
BALANCE
TURNOVER
EXPORT
IMPORT
19 083
8 600
10 483
-1 883
4,2%
4,3%
4,1%
Food product and beverages
2 404
1 582
822
760
25,7%
34,4%
11,9%
Industrial goods
8 401
4 776
3 625
1 151
1,3%
-4,0%
9,3%
Fuel and oil
1 463
250
1 213
-963
-47,2%
-5,8%
-51,6%
Capital goods (expect transport) parts and equipment
2 644
465
2 179
-1 714
38,7%
0,3%
51,0%
Vehicles and parts
1 649
756
892
-136
28,8%
3,0%
63,7%
Consumer goods
2 508
767
1 741
-973
18,4%
22,8%
16,5%
14
4
10,5
-7
-58,0%
-27,8%
-63,6%
TOTAL
Other goods
(the customs’ operational information)
EU-UA: TRQ UTILIZATION
100% UTILIZED
MORE THAN 80% UTILIZED
0.1-50% UTILIZED
Poultry meat and poultry meat preparations
Poultry meat and poultry meat preparations (additional)
BY UKRAINE (24 OF 40) Honey Barley groats and meal
Butter and dairy spreads Processed tomatoes
Barley, flour and pellets
Milk powder
Grape and Apple juice
Sweetcorn
Sugars
Other Sugars
Maize, flour and pellets
Ethanol
Oats
Bran, shaps and residues Sugar processed products
Common wheat, flours, and pellets
Starches
Malt and wheat gluten
Other
BY EU (3 OF 5) Poultry meat and poultry meat preparations
Sugars
Pork meat (main and additional) Poultry meat and poultry meat preparations (additional)
EU-UA DCFTA: NEXT STEPS
1 2 3
Dialogue on further trade liberalization
Initiation of multi-cluster dialogue UA - EU cooperation on the Industrial Policy
UA accession to the Regional Convention on Pan-Euro-Mediterranean preferential rules of origin
THANK YOU!