SCENARIO REPORT POWERED BY ONE oo ONE
INDEX Introduction
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Scenario I
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Scenario II
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Conclusion
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References
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ENTERING
THE
We love to live for the moment but as a young brand, the future is for us crucial: We want to contribute to it and be part of it! Maybe we aren’t fortune tellers but our creativity, imagination and open-mindedness allows us to imagine how our world might look like in 2030. These considerations, offer not only us but everybody who cares about the future, new opportunities, guidance and the chance to encounter it best possible.
Individualism vs. Collectivism By combining the two sets of alternatives, we established four possible future landscapes of which we chose two to construct the framework for our scenarios.
We applied research results as well as contemporary factors and occurrences that are relevant for the future to the chosen landscapes and came eventually up with our two future scenarios: Survival of the Fittest is determined by extreme competition and biotechnological progress. Community Challenge is characterized by the world’s struggle against the devastating impact of global warming.
Based on profound research into possible future trends and the DESTEP macro factors, we defined two critical drivers: High vs. Low GM* Presence
FUTURE
Both reports are structured by three categories: Initially External Context&Economy are examined to give a broader picture. Following Society&Lifestyle is taken into consideration which leads to Consumer&Market. The reports are supported by vivid examples and pay particular respect to the fashion industry. We conclude and finish our report by rasising the million dollar question: Is there a future for ONE oo ONE in the two presented words?
* Genetic Modification / Genetic Engineering
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High GM Presence From human biology to economy, all layers of life are determined and affected by an extensive employment of GM.
SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST
Collectivism Society is centered around community and strong solidarity. Everybody contributes his best to make mutual life better.
Individualism For the individum, personal needs and succes have priority. He wants to express himself and stand out from the mass.
COMMUNITY CHALLENGE
Low GM Presence GM is restricted to employment for substential economic purposes such as agriculture and not matured yet.
SCENARIO I: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST It’s a time of professional excess,
notably diminishing global market.
legitimated and enabled by the
Over the economic rivalry and
golden age of GM and technlogy. Norms and values have been thrown over board in favor of a ruthless competition that has led to local economies. As well in society as in world politics, it’s all about being the best. Those who can’t keep up fall by the way, that’s the the golden rule in Survival of the Fittest.
hopeless future prognoses, all attempts to take action against the increasing threat of global warming, fell for the latest by 2018 into oblivion. The Kyoto II Protocol was stopped, instead mankind focused on the question how technology and GM in particular can help tricking nature and evading the impact of global warming.
External context&Economy Determined to counteract the growing economic power of East-Asia, the EU excluded in 2015 discredited countries such as Greece that face today along other developing nations a miserable existence. After significant liberalizations of its strict GM-regulations over the past years, the confederation has gotten back on track by taking the leading role in biotechnology. The new achievements in technology allow even highly import dependent countries like Germany almost selfsufficiency. Triggered further by the extreme competition between the indsutrial giants East Asia, Russia, South America and the EU, the world has shifted thus from full globalization to
Circumventing the increasing infertility of soils and extinction of common animal species, Vertical Farms offer a vivid example for this: Nowadays modified crops, bio-fuels and animals are grown in skyscrapers that allow agriculture in urban areas. This way, resistant cotton plants that require far less watering can be grown today right in Rotterdam’s business district. In search for energy resources, China and Japan have joined forces and succeeded recently in obtaining Helium-3 as a new fuel from the surface of the Moon. While South America keeps venturing on refined solar and wind energy, modified energy plants represent the main source in most industrial nations.
local economies. Goods and knowhow are traded expensively on the 1001 - 6
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Glowing trees that substitute street lights and street tiles that generate energy from pavement pounder, represent additional energy sources.
Consumer&Market Due to the local character of economy, today’s consumer is facing a much more limited product offer and higher prices.
Lifestyle&Society In 2030, life is centered around work, success and achievement. Competitive
Along with the change in lifestyles and social segregation, we encounter two different consumer trends:
thinking dominates society and the
The well-off consumer attaches value
role of the individual. Demands on
to exclusivity and quality. He’s in
employees are higher than ever
search of products that make him
before, not only in terms of workload
stand out as an individual and fit his
but especially qualification. As a
prestigious, career-orientated lifestyle.
consequence, education and know-how
His clothes are manufactured from
have become besides money the new
high quality, modified fibers or those
power tool: They are the means that
sourced from microorganisms. Since
make you “somebody”.
his time is limited, he shops mainly
Their achievement becomes the aim in life, starting before even being born. In 2028, GM finally found it’s way into human biology. It does not only allow parents today to design the perfect
online. The established and commonly use of 3D-printing allows him hereby easy customization. From food to furniture, everything can be easily printed at home.
child with optimized skills but thanks
The less well-off consumer focuses
to bio-printing, an extension of the
in contrast on price and functionality.
meanwhile common 3D-printing, also
Unless made out of cheap synthetics,
to creation of human substitute organs.
new clothes are hardly an option for
These privileges are however reserved for the social elite, since medical health care is traded in 2030 as a luxury good, so that a healthy lifestyle becomes crucial for everybody, as far
him. Outlets, second-hand shops and also the black market, where illegally imported wares from East Asia can be found, represent his main shopping sources,
as possible. The growing gap between rich and poor and related impact of genetic engineering is challenging society. Protests from the deprived, human and religious institutions and a growing number of youth riots are causing tension and insecurity.
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SCENARIO II: COMMUNITY CHALLENGE Exploited resources, drought and
Know-how and progress in research is
natural catastrophes: Unexpectedly,
globally shared so that everyone can
the world meets the devastating
benefit. Top engineers from all over
consequences of global warming that
the world are for instance working
threatens mankind to extinction.
on the development of self-sufficient
World’s nations moves closer
residential buildings that equal an ark,
together to fight rearguard action in
armed for a worse-case scenario. An
a Community Challenge that equals a
efficient and international realization
struggle for survival.
requires however more time that the world doesn’t seem to have.
External context&Economy Despite the successful introduction of the international climate policy Earth Secure in 2020 that finally also called major C02-issuers like China and Japan to account, the past can’t be undone. Just like a lightning strike, global warming is showing its comeuppance and hitting the unprepared world: Bush fires in Australia, have nearly burned an entire continent to ground but also the rest of the earth isn’t spared: Starting with the exploitation of the Colorado River and Lake Mead in the USA in 2018, drought, water scarcity and heat weaves have become daily global phenomena. While some countries are more affected than others, the United Nations are more dependent on each other then ever before. In 2025 they assured each other without exception,
The dramatic decline of natural resources and growing infertility of soils is leading to growing shortfalls: Agriculture has become impossible in the Southern hemisphere and will be likewise soon in Northern countries where common live stock is starting to die off. To guarantee food supply through 3D printing, even the EU was forced to liberalize its strict GM policies. Because of the poor development of extensive biotechnology, highly resistant mutated gems keep coming into circulation. Along natural catastrophes such as the Côte d’Azur Tsunami of 2028, the resulting epidemics cause a further decline of the diminishing world population. Millions of people have been forced thus in the past years to leave their native countries, although future perspectives are scarce everywhere.
mutual support and assistance as far as possible. 1001 - 10
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The weave of migration challenges urban conurbations. Energy insufficiency and the unavailability of long-term alternatives, forces governments despite the controversy and risks to employ increasingly nuclear energy.
Consumer&Market Since basic products and means are in demand, an endless number of businesses has been forced to shut down. Early 21st century diversity has given way to a number of selected companies that operate in global collaboration. As a consequence
Society&Lifestyle Living space is highly limited, so that it comes to more and more compulsory unions. For the welfare of the general public, a temporary law was imposed that forbids procreation. Water is rationed to a minimum and has to be recycled to the utmost which causes especially among children an alarming number of illness. Society in general is characterized, as well on a global as on on a local level, by solidarity and cooperation. People have lost faith in god and religions, instead a new humanism based on respect for each other and mutual support dominates. Work is playing a minor part and unemployment has become common state. Accompanied, differences in wealth have nearly diminished and money is losing its value. The majority has nothing on disposal and is dependent on the community and governmental welfare.
Many people consider life in 2030 not more than a delay of the end. For leisure, niche or luxury markets are no means left; it’s all about functionality. For the average consumer who is anyhow restricted in his means, this means a highly limited offer of products. As well in industry as for individual life, recycling, exchanging and sharing play an important role. People have learned to appreciate their goods. Raw materials are scarce and only used for substantiate purposes. The use of private cars is for instance forbidden; in the contemporary city, public transport and cycling represent the means of locomotion. The textile industry has shrunken to a minimum and is oriented towards practicality instead of design. Due to the extinction of natural fibers, fabrics are solely sourced from synthetics or by recycling old garments. The majority wears cheaply produced and most basic uniforms. Second hand shops and markets represent another source for clothing and besides DIY and customization, an opportunity for the consumer to maintain at least a minimum of personal style and taste.
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A N A LY S I S & C O N C L U S I O N Our scenarios paint two possible pictures of the world in 2030 that are despite discernible parallels, yet completely different. By positioning our brand concept in both worlds, we investigate in the leading question if there’s still room and need for ONE oo ONE. In Survival of the Fittest our concept has hardly any perspectives. The local, closed focus of economy and market make transnational collaborations in general impossible and battle against the multiculturalism we favor. Civil wars and the economic competition of the industrial giants, have made the Middle East part of the third world, so that creative projects with the hostile West become trivial. Also from the consumer perspective, in 2030 there’s no demand for a street wear brand with Arabic influences: The majority of the population, among our target group (aged 16-28 years), can hardly afford new clothing. Functionality and good value have priority. Although the social elite aims for individualism, their interest lies solely in prestigious clothing that underlines their status and fits their career-minded lifestyle. While our brand doesn’t have any relevance in Survival of the Fittest, the scenario suggests yet new opportunities in terms of production: The achievements in biotechnology offers on the hand more efficient and flexible growth of one of our main components cotton and suggest new fiber sources such as microorganisms.
On the other hand, the establishment of 3D-printing facilitates production significantly and allows through customization to meet the desire of the individual even better. At the same time the focus on internet as a main shopping source, requires new strategies to reach the consumer and provide an effective virtual experience. The solidarity of the United Nations favors theoretically multiculturalism and transnational collaboration but the struggle for survival leaves no room for ONE oo ONE in Community Challenge. The entire world and Southern areas like the Middle East in particular, are beset by heat weaves and drought. Water scarcity and soil infertility make natural resources such as cotton extinct and cause shortage in means of subsistence. The textile industry is thus minimized and fully focused on functionality and thriftiness. Solely most basic uniform clothing is produced out of synthetics, for design and creativity there are nor means nor essential needs. ONE oo ON as a street wear brand has no chance for existence but a part of its spirit might: The migration weave into less affected (Western) causes a spread of cultural diversity. The hopelessness and unemployment could potentially lead to the rise of a new youth culture that gives vents to their feelings by means of creative expression such as street art. All in all the future perspectives for ONE oo ONE do not look too good but we keep our chin up and consider these insights an even bigger motivation to make now the best of the future.
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“The future starts today, not tomorow.” Pope John Paul II.
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INFORMATION Designboom; Glowing Plants : Natural Lightning without Electricity http://www.designboom.com/technology/glowing-plants-natural-lighting-without-electricity/ Renewable Energy World; The Water Scarcity Reality http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/blog/post/2013/03/the-water-scarcity-reality Explaining the Future; Future Trends http://www.explainingthefuture.com/trends.html Science Daily; Europe Needs Genetically Modified Crops http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/04/130425132612.htm Worldbank; Datacatalogue http://datacatalog.worldbank.org/ Scientific American; Energy Harvesting Street Tiles http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=pavement-pounders-at-paris-marathon-generate-power S. Sigrist, B. Varnholt&Co. for W.I.R.E., 2011, Mind the Future Compendium for Contemporary Trends, W.I.R.E.
IMAGERY Cover: Art work from the “Duwamah” Series by Sherin Guirguis (edited) http://gallerywendinorris.com/a.php?view=&event_id=99 Index: Graphic Art “Reaching the Future” (edited) http://www.8wallpaper.com/wallpaper/54-0.htm 1001-4: 3D-printed garment by Iris Van Herpen via Editd.com http://editd.com/blog/wp-content/gallery/laser-cut-3/editd-iris-van-herpen-ss12.jpg 1001-7: Alchemy Art via Synaptic Stimuli (edited) http://synapticstimuli.com/alchemy/ 1001-9: 3D-printed design by Iris Van Herpen’s “Capriole” Haute Couture via Modus Design Blog http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2mEPdncHp3s/URPU4PVu3hI/AAAAAAAAAK4/ZLsZI964JHk/s1 1001-11: Recursion Architecture Design via TVMNY http://tvmny.blogspot.nl/2008_02_01_archive.html 1001-13: Fashion Film by Nick Knigh and Panos Yiapanis, Autumn 2009 via Showstudio http://showstudio.com/img/images/57201-57400/57385_960n.jpg?1332071363 1001-17: Graphic Art by Melissa Manfull (edited) via Designinspiration http://designspiration.net/image/573606894340/ 1001 - 16
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