CEA sees 1.02 billion tons of coal need for thermal energy by FY30

Coal Insights Bureau

Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has worked out coal requirement for 2029-30 at about 1019.6 million tons (mt) in its recently released Report on Optimal Generation mix 2030 (second revision).

The estimation of 1.02 billion tons (bt) of coal is based on estimates of gross generation from coal and lignite-based power plant of 1515.82 Billion Units (BU) for FY30.

The estimate includes likely increase in coal-based generation on account of the uncertainty in realisation of the expected/ scheduled capacity addition from Hydro, Nuclear and climactic factors like drought conditions, etc.

The resultant coal requirement for FY30 has been worked out to be 1019.6 mt considering specific coal consumption of 0.666 kg/kWh + 1 percent transportation loss.

“Coal-based capacity addition of 16,204.5 MW is required to meet electricity demand requirement in 2029-30 apart from the coalbased capacity of 26900 MW currently under construction (for likely benefits during 202223 to 2029-30),” the report predits.

Energy capacity to be 10% lower than 2020 estimates

As per the earlier study of 2020, the likely installed capacity by the end of 2029-30 was projected as 8,17,254 MW comprising of Hydro - 60,977 MW, Pumped Storage Plants - 10,151 MW, Small Hydro - 5,000 MW, Coal - 2,66,911 MW, Gas - 25,080 MW, Nuclear - 18,980 MW, Solar - 280,155 MW, Wind - 140,000 MW, Biomass - 10,000 MW along with Battery Energy Storage capacity of 27,000 MW/108,000 MWh to meet the projected peak electricity demand of 340 GW and electrical energy requirement of 2400 BU as per the 19th report.

The installed capacity by the end of 202930 projected is 777,144 MW comprising of Hydro 53,860 MW (excluding Hydro Imports 5,856 MW), PSP 18,986 MW, Small Hydro 5,350 MW, Coal 2,51,683 MW, Gas 24,824 MW, Nuclear 15,480 MW, Solar 2,92,566 MW, Wind 99,895 MW and Biomass 14,500 MW along with a Battery Energy Storage capacity of 41,650 MW/208,250 MWh. With this installed capacity, the NDC commitment given by India i.e., the percentage of non- fossil fuel capacity in the total installed capacity is to be 50 percent by 2030 is likely to be met.

The projected installed capacity from RE sources excluding large hydro (Solar, wind, biomass and small hydro) in the year 202930 was projected as 435 GW.

In the previous year, 73 percent of India’s power came from coal which is expected to go down to 55 percent by 2030.

Renewable sources (such as small hydro, pumped hydro, solar, wind and biomass) will rise to 31 percent in 2030 from 12 percent right now, the report predicts.

The major highlights of the 20th projections are:

♦ Projected a peak electricity demand of 334.8 GW and electrical energy requirement of 2279.7 BU for FY30

♦ The impact of EVs on all India Demand in 2029-30 is likely to be 3 GW in Peak Demand and 15 BU in Energy requirement

♦ All India energy requirement offset due to solar roof-top installation has been estimated as 34.8 BU in 2029-30

♦ All India energy requirement offset due to solar pump installation has been estimated as 2.4 BU in 2029-30

♦ Additional energy requirement for the country on account of green hydrogen production of around 10 mt (considering only 5 mt load on Grid) has been estimated as 250 BU by FY30.

In FY30, non-fossil based installed capacity is likely to be about 64 percent of the total installed capacity and non-fossil fuels contribute around 45 percent of the gross electricity generation during 2029-30.

Energy demand

The projected All India peak electricity demand and electrical energy requirement is 334.8 GW and 2279.7 BU for FY30 as per the draft projections.

Thermal capacity to rise by 19%

Coal capacity, which is under construction and is expected to be commissioned during 2022-30, is around 26,900 MW.

Pit-head potential supercritical coal capacity totaling to 21,240 MW has been considered. Out of this, coal capacity totaling to 6,920 MW is under bidding.

Additionally, coal-based capacity of Central and state sector utilities, totaling to 9,420 MW which has been identified to be considered for development in future, if required, has been also taken into consideration for the studies.

The capex for new coal plants has been considered as `8.34 cr/MW (up from 7.85 cr/MW considered in the earlier studies) as per the latest inputs provided by various manufacturers/developers.

The likely share of thermal installed capacity reduces to 35.5 percent of the total installed capacity in FY30 as compared to 57 percent as of March, 2023 while the REbased installed capacity in 2029-30 (including Large Hydro) increases to 62.4 percent of the total installed capacity as compared to 41.4 percent as of March, 2023.