India to contribute most to global CO2 emission: IEA

Coal Insights Bureau

India would be contributing the largest share of CO 2 emission in coming days as China gets rid of polluting bulk materials leading to shift in their production to India, says International Energy Agency.

European Union, United States and China are significantly cutting down on their emissions while India would keep on emitting at an increasing pace thus turning out to be the biggest contributor to global CO2 emission.

China is gradually moving away from the production of bulk materials, especially cement towards less energy-intensive manufacturing activities such as electronics, batteries and industrial equipment.

There are also significant efforts to reduce the direct CO 2 footprint of industrial activity, leading to a reduction of 85-90 percent in direct CO 2 emissions for heavy industry sectors by 2070, according to IEA forecast while India increase its share of global industrial emissions by 75 percent by 2070 as its production of bulk materials grows robustly to meet domestic demand.

“By 2070, India accounts for 15 percent of global CO 2 emissions from industry. Emissions from the industrial sector in the European Union and the United States are reduced by more than 90 percent in 2070 relative to current levels in the Sustainable Development Scenario, such that together they account for less than 10 percent of total emissions from industry,” warns IEA.

In contrast, China’s share of global industrial emissions, currently at 45 percent, would come down by half by 2070 in IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario.

“The enormous fleets of inefficient coal plants, steel foundries, chemical facilities and cement factories – many of them recently built – are set to produce enough emissions in the coming decades to put international climate goals out of reach. But we can develop the technologies to address this through smart policies and investments today,” the report says.

Need for intervention through technology

Power sector and heavy industry sectors together account for about 60 percent of emissions today from existing energy infrastructure. That share climbs to nearly 100 percent in 2050 if no action is taken to manage the existing assets’ emissions, underscoring the need for the rapid development of technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture, the report says.

Clean energy technologies are to be available in time for key investment decisions will be critical. In heavy industries, for example, strategically timed investments could help avoid around 40 percent of cumulative emissions from existing infrastructure.

India’s approach

The carbon footprint of the global energy system has been reduced in waves driven by government policies.

Wind and solar PV have seen rapid expansion, led by policy support in Europe, United States, China and India.

Public procurement also plays a role in creating niche markets in some countries including India which created dependable local markets for products, such as lightemitting diodes (LEDs), appliances and electric vehicles.

Deploying LEDs rapidly on a large scale with right financing and market mechanisms, India created one of the largest LED markets in the world thanks to the national Unnat Jyoti by ‘Affordable LEDs for All’ programme, which uses bulk procurement to offer LED bulbs at low prices.

Coal is largest contributor to CO2 emission

Coal remains by far the biggest contributor to global energy-related CO 2 emissions as it is the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel and the second-largest energy source worldwide.

Coal accounted for 45 percent of total CO 2 emissions in 2019, followed by oil (34 percent) and natural gas (22 percent).

Apart from a brief hiatus in the 2000s, share of coal in the global energy mix has been declining in recent decades, while that of oil has been broadly flat and that of gas has been rising steadily.

IEA calculates that coal has been the single leading cause of global warming: CO 2 emitted from coal combustion is responsible for more than 0.3 °C of the 1 °C increase in global average annual surface temperatures above pre-industrial levels.

Same coal but more efficient

Around 80 percent of the expected cumulative emissions from the power sector are from coal plants. By 2050, annual emissions from existing coal plants would be 5.9 Gt, nearly 70 percent of current levels ignoring any early retirement or other emission reduction measures.

Around 75 percent of cumulative power sector emissions through to 2070 are related to projects in Asia, with China alone accounting for almost 50 percent of all cumulative CO 2 emissions.

More coal plants are still planned, although final investment decisions for new coal plants have fallen by about 80 percent over the past three years, from about 88 gigawatts (GW) in 2015 to around 17 GW in 2019.