01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
Commodity Outlook
Crude oil will remain expensive in 2012
Energy Unit
WTI
Brent
Natural gas
$/Barrel
$/Barrel
$/MMBTU
In 2012, global demand for crude oil will increase by 1.5 mb/d to a new record level of 91.02 mb/d. In the third quarter of 2012, demand of emerging markets could for the first time outstrip the demand of industrialized countries.
current
96.0
116.2
4.3
% 1M
1.22
3.81
-1.92
in 3 M
100.0
120.0
4.5
in 6 M
100.0
115.0
4.5
Ø Q2/11
102.4
116.7
4.4
One underlying problem is the decline in crude oil production in the currently producing fields. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that production will decline from 68 mb/d in 2009 to only 16 mb/d in 2035.
Ø Q3/11e
100.0
120.0
4.5
Ø 2010
78.9
80.2
4.4
Ø 2011
100.0
115.0
4.5
Ø 2012
105.0
120.0
4.8
Non-OPEC countries can increase production in 2012 by 900 kb/d. However, most of the new capacities comprise expensive alternatives: deepsea oil fields, oil sand deposits, and natural gas liquids. Because of the Libyan crisis, the free production capacity of OPEC has fallen to only 3.6 mb/d. It will be the second half of 2012 before it recovers again to roughly 5 mb/d. But because of the strong crude oil consumption growth in the Middle East, we expect only a moderate increase in crude oil exports. Both 2011 and 2012 will see the emergence of a supply gap in the respective third quarter that presumably cannot be closed even by OPEC. OECD countries can offset this thanks to high stockpiles. We are raising our forecast for Brent for 2011 from USD 110 to USD 115 and for 2012 from USD 100 to USD 120 per barrel. WTI will remain on average USD 15 cheaper up to the end of 2012. If the gap were to widen even further, this could result in lower production in North America. CRUDE OIL DEMAND OF EMERGING MARKETS OUTSTRIPS DEMAND OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES OECD demand
55
Demand of Non-OECD countries
Industrial metals Copper
Aluminum
US$/MT
US$/MT
current
9830
2597
% 1M
5.47
3.74
in 3 M
9700
2500
in 6 M
9800
2400
Ø Q2/11
9185
2610
Ø Q3/11e
9600
2500
Ø 2010
7510
2164
Ø 2011
9400
2500
Ø 2012
9600
2600
Unit
Precious metals Gold
Silver
Platinum
$/Ounce
cts/Ounce
$/Ounce
1623.6
3963.0
1779.0
% 1M
7.78
15.24
3.67
in 3 M
1600.0
4000.0
1700.0
in 6 M
1650.0
4100.0
1850.0
Ø Q2/11
1508.0
3854.6
1784.1
Ø Q3/11e
1550.0
3800.0
1800.0
Ø 2010
1200.0
1950.0
1600.0
Ø 2011
1500.0
3500.0
1825.0
Ø 2012
1700.0
3800.0
2000.0
Unit current
Quelle: Thomson Financial Datastream, UniCredit Research
50
mb/d
45 40 35 30
2 /1 2
I/1
IV
0 II/ 11
III /1
9 /0 9
I/0
IV
7 II/ 08
III /0
6 /0 6
I/0
IV
4 II/ 05
III /0
3 /0 3
I/0
IV
1 II/ 02
III /0
IV
I/0
0 /0 0
25
Source: IEA, UniCredit Research
Author Jochen Hitzfeld (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-18709 jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de Bloomberg UCGR Internet www.research.unicreditgroup.eu
UniCredit Research
page 1
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
KEY EVENTS US Department of Energy
08/03/2011
International Energy Agency
08/10/2011
16:30
US crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories Monthly oil market report Source: UniCredit Research
Strong increase in crude oil demand next year
FOR THE FIRST TIME, CRUDE OIL DEMAND OF EMERGING MARKETS HIGHER THAN IN INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
With its July monthly report, the IEA has for the first time also provided a detailed scenario for supply and demand in 2012 on the crude oil market. Global demand will increase by 1.5 mb/d to 91.02 mb/d. As a result, the increase in demand is even slightly higher than in 2011, where all indications point to an increase of only 1.2 mb/d. For 2012, the IEA also assumes global GDP growth of 4.4%, which is in line with both the IMF scenario as well as our own scenario. The central risk factors remain, however, as before the global debt crisis and the economic downswing in China.
OECD demand
55
Demand of Non-OECD countries
50
mb/d
45 40 35 30
/0 0 III /0 1 II/ 02 I/0 3 IV /0 3 III /0 4 II/ 05 I/0 6 IV /0 6 III /0 7 II/ 08 I/0 9 IV /0 9 III /1 0 II/ 11 I/1 2 IV /1 2
IN 2012, THE GROWTH OF CRUDE OIL DEMAND WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER
IV
I/0
0
25
Source: IEA, UniCredit Research Global oil demand, change vs prev. year 3.1 2.8
3.5 3.0
Increase in non-OPEC production: Expensive and associated with risks
2.5 2.0
1.6
mb/d
1.5 1.0
0.7
0.7
1.5
1.4
1.2
1.0
1.5
The production of non-OPEC states will increase by 900 kb/d in 2012, compared to an increase of only 500 kb/d this year. The increase is on a par with the excellent years 2009-2010 and 2000-2004, and is the result of sustained investments in the upstream segment in recent years.
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.6
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
2012: STRONG INCREASE IN NON-OPEC PRODUCTION
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: IEA, UniCredit Research
Crude oil production of the Non-OPEC states, change yoy
1.6 1.4
UniCredit Research
1.3 1.1
1.2
The growth of demand for oil is attributable solely to emerging markets. Here, the demand increases by 1.6 mb/d, while the demand of OECD countries declines slightly by 120 kb/d. In the second quarter of 2012, crude oil demand of emerging markets will even outstrip the demand of the OECD countries for the first time! The estimate for demand in 2011 was also revised upwards again by 200 kb/d because of the strong growth in emerging markets. The largest contribution to growth comes once again from China. In 2012, demand will increase by a further 500 kb/d. This is even slightly less than in 2010 with 1 mb/d and 2011 with 600 kb/d. But the growth in other regions should not be underestimated either. In the remainder of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East, for example, demand increases in each case by 300 kb/d.
1.0 mb/d
0.8
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.9 0.7
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
-0.2
-0.2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: IEA, UniCredit Research
Much of the growth does, however, come once again from Canadian oil sands, biofuels, and the liquid components of natural gas. All these are only profitable when the oil price is
page 2
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
OPEC CRUDE OIL IN STRONG DEMAND, ABOVE ALL IN THE THIRD QUARTER
high. In the past, the growth in non-OPEC production had, in addition, frequently to be revised downwards, since production in the exhausted fields declined more rapidly than expected. In its long-term scenario up to 2035, the IEA expects a decline in crude oil production of the already producing fields by 8.3% per year. The production declines from 68 mb/d in 2009 to only 16 mb/d in 2035. The need for new capacities is, therefore, substantially higher than the pure increase in demand to 99 mb/d by 2035 would suggest. The decline in crude oil production is accelerating over time, since more and more fields are exceeding peak production and the share of the small and "off-shore" fields, where the decline in production is particularly steep, is increasing. The IEA assumes that non-OPEC countries as a whole will reach peak production in 2015. The decline in oil production overall can, however, still be offset until 2025 by an increase in production from oil sands, "coal-to-liquids" and "gas-to-liquids" processes. Against this backdrop, the assumption of an increase in production by non-OPEC states is associated with high risks.
2.0 OPEC crude oil: production minus global demand for OPEC oil 1.5 1.0
mb/d
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5
20
I/0 9 II/ 0 III 9 /0 IV 9 /0 9 I/1 0 II/ 1 III 0 /1 IV 0 /1 0 I/1 1 II/ 1 III 1 /1 IV 1 /1 1 I/1 2 II/ 1 III 2 /1 IV 2 /1 2
0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 12
Inventory rundown expected
-2.0
Source: IEA, UniCredit Research
The free production capacity of OPEC has fallen to only 3.6 mb/d because of the virtually complete disruption of Libyan crude oil production. This underscores once again the central risk for the oil market: an escalation of the crisis in the Middle East to a further important oil producer. At the moment, the free production capacity stands at 33.95 mb/d. In the second half of 2012, the free production capacity is, however, expected to increase again strongly to 35.08 mb/d. First, the production capacity of Libya should have recovered again by then, even though the old production level will probably not be reached again until the end of 2013. In addition, by the end of 2012, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates can then also produce more crude oil.
OPEC challenged, particularly in the third quarter In June, OPEC production increased primarily because of a strong 850 kb/d increase in production in Saudi-Arabia to 30.03 mb/d. Production is, therefore, 5.19 mb/d above the quota of 24.845 mb/d set as far back as 2008. Nevertheless, the production is not enough to cover demand in the seasonally strong second half of the year. This would require 31.3 mb/d in the third quarter and 30.6 mb/d in the fourth th quarter. Pursuant to the OPEC resolution at the 159 meeting in Vienna to leave production and the quotas unchanged, we expect a strong inventory rundown, particularly as the IEA has decided not to release any further oil reserves. The next regular OPEC meeting is not until 14 December 2011.
HIGH CAPTIVE CONSUMPTION REDUCING OPEC EXPORTS
30 OPEC crude oil exports 29
Assuming non-OPEC states increase production in 2012 as planned by 900 kb/d, then OPEC must on average produce roughly 30.7 mb/d. That is only 0.1 mb/d more than in 2011. The pattern is, however, also the same for 2012: the market is tightest in the third and fourth quarter. In the third quarter of 2011, the gap is 1.4 mb/d; in 3Q/2012 it is even 1.6 mb/d. In the fourth quarter of 2011, the gap will however be closed rapidly, since non-OPEC countries will resume production at a number of facilities after lengthy maintenance work. The situation is different in 2012: Here, there is also a gap in the fourth quarter that is not substantially smaller: 1.4 mb/d.
mb/d
28 27 26 25 24 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: BPSR, UniCredit Research
A further problem is the high and growing captive consumption of OPEC countries. For 2012, oil consumption is expected to increase by 300 kb/d – the second-highest increase after China! This will mean that OPEC has less and
UniCredit Research
page 3
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
less oil left over for export. While in 2005 29.2 mb/d were still exported, in 2010 the figure was only 27.1 mb/d.
of an efficient pipeline. Some market participants therefore believe the spread could even widen to USD 40 per barrel. This in turn could then trigger a massive cutback in North American oil production and, therefore, an increase in the global price level. We expect WTI to remain on average roughly USD 15 p/b cheaper until the end of 2012.
OECD stockpiles create a risk cushion In June, the industrial stockpiles of OECD countries stood at 2677 mb, which translates into roughly 59 days of current consumption. The level of the stockpiles was probably an important reason behind the OPEC decision not to increase production. In the past, OPEC only increased production once the stockpiles had fallen towards 53 days of consumption. In the short term, the stockpiles will probably decline because of the supply deficit in the third quarter. Over the medium term, however, stockpiles are expected to remain high, because the consumption of OECD countries will merely stagnate until the end of 2012. There is no data available on the stockpiles of the non-OECD countries and, therefore, above all for China and India. This explains part of the strong fluctuations in the oil price.
HIGH BRENT-WTI PRICE SPREAD TO PERSIST Inventories in Cushing
Brent minus WTI (RS)
40
20
35 mn barrels
25
15
30 10 25 5
20
0
15 10 01/06
USD p/b
45
HIGH STOCKPILES OF OECD COUNTRIES AS RISK CUSHION
65
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
-5 01/07
01/08
OECD industrial crude oil and products inventories, in days of demand
01/09
01/10
01/11
Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research
63 61
Target price for 2011: Brent at 125 USD
59
In 2012, the strong consumption growth of non-OECD countries results in record demand of 91.02 mb/d. If OPEC does not increase production, a supply deficit must be expected above all in the seasonally strong second quarter. OECD countries can cushion this through high stockpiles. There is, in contrast, no data available on the stockpiles of non-OECD countries. Against this backdrop, the oil price is not expected to decline despite the economic slowdown and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. We are, therefore, raising our target price for Brent for 2011 from USD 110 to USD 115 and for 2012 from USD 100 to USD 120 per barrel (in each case calendar year average). In this period, we expect a persistently wide gap of USD 15 per barrel between WTI and Brent.
57 55 53 51 49 47 45 Critical value for the OPEC to raise production 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
2007
2009
2011
Source: IEA, UniCredit Research
WTI remains cheaper than Brent For many years, the US benchmark for crude oil – WTI – was roughly one USD more expensive than the European benchmark Brent. At the beginning of January 2011, however, WTI broke below the sideways band in place for many years for the first time. The gap has, in the interim, widened to roughly USD 20. The reason for this is an increase in oil production in the US thanks to new drilling techniques and in Canada thanks to the ever stronger development of the oil sand deposits. This oil is transported to the central oil hub in Cushing/Oklahoma. The oil infrastructure there – such as refineries and storage facilities – are, however, at the limits of their capacity. The oil must now be transported at great expense by rail and container truck to the Gulf of Mexico. This situation can only be remedied once the oil infrastructure has been modernized, for example by the construction
UniCredit Research
Jochen Hitzfeld (UniCredit Bank) +49 89 378-18709 jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de
page 4
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01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT – NON-COMMERCIAL TRADERS
250
140
200
120 USD/barrel
300
150
100
100 80
50
60
0
40
-50
20 01/07
-100 08/07
02/08
09/08
04/09
11/09
06/10
Natural Gas ( LS)
Non-commercial net position (RS)
70
14.0 USD/mn British Thermal Units
Non-commercial net position (RS)
Long- minus short contracts, thousands
WTI (LS)
160
NATURAL GAS: SHORT POSITIONS COULD PROVIDE A BOOST
01/11
20 12.0
-30
10.0
-80
8.0
-130
6.0
-180
4.0
-230
2.0 01/07
Long- minus short contracts, thousands
WTI: STILL VERY HIGH NET LONG POSITION
-280 08/07
02/08
09/08
04/09
11/09
06/10
01/11
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research
1600
250
1400
200
1200 150 1000 100
800
50
600 400 01/07
02/08
09/08
04/09
11/09
06/10
Non-commercial net position (RS)
45
35
40
30
30
25 20
20
15
10
10 5 01/07
01/11
0 08/07
02/08
09/08
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research
30
9000
20
8000 USD/ton
40
10
7000
0
6000
-10
5000
-20
4000 3000
-30
2000 01/07
-40 02/08
09/08
04/09
11/09
06/10
1280
cents per bushel
Non-commercial net position (RS)
10000
08/07
06/10
01/11
01/11
Wheat (LS)
Non-commercial net position(RS)
140
1180
120
1080
100
980
80
880
60
780
40
680
20
580
0
480
-20
380
-40
280 01/07
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research
UniCredit Research
11/09
WHEAT: STRONG DECLINE OF NET LONG POSITIONS
Long- minus short contracts, thousands
Copper (LS)
04/09
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research
COPPER: VERY HIGH NET LONG POSITION
11000
60 50
40
0 08/07
Silver (LS)
50
Long- minus short contracts, thousands
USD/ounce
300
USD/ounce
Non-commercial net position (RS)
Long- minus short contracts, thousands
Gold (LS)
1800
SILVER: GROWING SPECULATIVE INTEREST
Long- minus short contracts, thousands
GOLD: ONCE AGAIN VERY HIGH SPECULATIVE INTEREST
-60 08/07
02/08
09/08
04/09
11/09
06/10
01/11
Source: Bloomberg, CFTC, UniCredit Research
page 5
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
US STOCKPILES CRUDE OIL
GASOLINE 250 MAX
2011
230
220
220
210
210
200
200
290
190
190
270
180
180
250
170
350
330
330
310
310
290 270
170
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NATURAL GAS 200
4,000
2011
180
180
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
3,500
bn cubic feet
MAX
mn barrels
MIN
Jul
MIN
MAX
2011
3,500
3,000
3,000
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
1,000
1,000
500
80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4,000 Average
500
0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
bn cubic feet
200
mn barrels
Jul
Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research
HEATING OIL
Average
250
2011
230
350
Jul
MAX
240
370
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
MIN
240
370
250
Average
390
mn barrels
MIN
mn barrels
Average
mn barrels
mn barrels
390
0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research
Source: Bloomberg, DOE, UniCredit Research
Key: The bars show the average of the last 5 years. The vertical lines show the range of the last 5 years. The triangle shows the last value reported for this month in 2011.
UniCredit Research
page 6
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION, 2012 FORECAST, OPEC SCENARIO, MN BPD 2011 North America
1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
2012
Change 2012/11 Volume
%
15.24
15.30
15.32
15.37
15.47
15.37
0.13
0.85%
Western Europe
4.19
4.20
4.03
3.91
4.08
4.05
-0.14
-3.34%
OECD Pacific
0.57
0.61
0.63
0.63
0.60
0.62
0.05
8.77%
Total OECD
20.00
20.11
19.98
19.91
20.15
20.04
0.04
0.20%
Other Asia
3.70
3.73
3.73
3.74
3.75
3.74
0.04
1.08%
Latin America
4.92
5.14
5.15
5.22
5.25
5.19
0.27
5.49%
Middle East
1.74
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
1.82
0.08
4.60%
Africa
2.66
2.71
2.70
2.70
2.69
2.70
0.04
1.50%
Total DCs
13.02
13.40
13.40
13.48
13.51
13.45
0.43
3.30%
FSU
13.36
13.47
13.43
13.47
13.54
13.48
0.12
0.90%
Other Europe
0.14
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.01
7.14%
China
4.23
4.28
4.25
4.26
4.31
4.28
0.05
1.18%
Total "Other" Regions
17.73
17.89
17.83
17.88
18.00
17.91
0.18
1.02%
Total non-OPEC production
50.76
51.41
51.20
51.26
51.65
51.38
0.62
1.22%
2.13
2.19
2.19
2.19
2.19
2.19
0.06
2.82%
Total non-OPEC supply
52.89
53.60
53.39
53.45
53.84
53.57
0.68
1.29%
previous estimate
52.92
53.60
53.39
53.45
53.84
53.57
5.30
5.50
5.60
5.70
5.80
5.70
0.40
7.55%
Total OPEC supply
29.40
29.83
28.90
31.34
31.05
30.24
0.84
2.86%
TOTAL OIL SUPPLY
87.59
88.93
87.89
90.49
90.69
89.51
1.92
2.19%
Processing gains
OPEC NGLs + non-conventional oils
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND, 2012 FORECAST, OPEC SCENARIO, MN BPD 2011
1Q 12
2Q 12
3Q 12
4Q 12
2012
Change 2012/11 Volume
%
North America
24.06
24.15
23.83
24.52
24.34
24.21
0.15
0.62%
Western Europe
14.38
14.21
13.92
14.62
14.51
14.32
-0.06
-0.42%
OECD Pacific
7.77
8.24
7.23
7.47
7.94
7.72
-0.05
-0.64%
Total OECD
46.21
46.60
44.98
46.61
46.79
46.25
0.04
0.09%
Other Asia
10.37
10.51
10.67
10.48
10.71
10.59
0.22
2.12%
Latin America
6.33
6.32
6.44
6.68
6.60
6.51
0.18
2.84%
Middle East
7.42
7.49
7.48
7.91
7.63
7.63
0.21
2.83%
Africa
3.38
3.46
3.45
3.33
3.51
3.44
0.06
1.78%
27.50
27.78
28.04
28.40
28.45
28.17
0.67
2.44%
FSU
4.22
4.21
4.03
4.47
4.56
4.32
0.10
2.37%
Other Europe
0.67
0.67
0.62
0.68
0.74
0.68
0.01
1.49%
China
9.57
9.67
10.22
10.33
10.15
10.09
0.52
5.43%
Total "Other" Regions
14.46
14.55
14.87
15.48
15.45
15.09
0.63
4.36%
Total World
88.17
88.93
87.89
90.49
90.69
89.51
1.34
1.52%
previous estimate
88.14
88.93
87.89
90.49
90.69
89.51
0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Total DCs
revision
Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report
UniCredit Research
page 7
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
COPPER SUPPLY AND DEMAND, ICSG FORECAST 2011-2012, IN 1,000 TONS Regions
Mine Production
Refined Production
Copper Usage
('000T)
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
2009
2010
2011
Africa
1,185
1,315
1,428
1,655
672
857
1,082
1,249
306
285
277
303
North America
1,933
1,915
2,173
2,433
1,758
1,690
1,843
1,953
2,048
2,182
2,270
2,355
Latin America
7,034
7,031
7,383
7,617
3,935
3,893
3,997
4,077
502
632
652
675
Asean-10
1,179
1,089
863
844
544
534
567
601
687
748
775
806
Asia ex Asean/CIS
1,504
1,661
1,750
1,904
7,044
7,591
7,930
8,620
10,540
11,054
11,601
12,196
Asia-CIS
519
491
506
532
450
413
468
515
105
96
100
104
EU-25
729
758
790
812
2,510
2,613
2,706
2,778
3,096
3,332
3,429
3,491 900
Europe Others
774
826
843
857
995
1,053
1,072
1,087
775
856
865
1,021
1,011
1,097
1,250
445
417
499
509
130
128
132
135
15,878
16,097
16,833
17,904
18,353
19,061
20,164
21,389
18,189
19,313
20,101
20,965
Adjustment for Primary Feed Shortage
0
-169
Allowance for Disruptions
-439
-535
19,061
19,725
20,685
18,189
19,313
20,101
20,965
3.9%
3.5%
4.9%
6.2%
4.1%
4.3%
-252
-376
-280
Oceania Total
World
2012
15,878
% change
16,097
16,833
17,904
1.4%
4.6%
6.4%
18,353
Refined Production -Usage Balance
164
Source: International Copper Study Group
GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND, WORLD GOLD COUNCIL, TONS 2008
2009
2010
% change 2010 vs 2009
Q1'10
Q2'10
Q3'10
Q4'10
Q1'11
% change Q1'11 vs Q1'10
Mine production
2410
2590
2689
3.8
620
656
709
704
664
7.0
Net producer hedging
-352
-236
-103
-19
19
-56
-47
-10
2058
2353
2586
9.9
602
675
653
657
654
8.7
232
34
-76
-325.9
-59
-14
-23
20
-129
119.9
Old gold scrap
1316
1695
1646
-2.9
369
444
377
455
348
-5.9
Total Supply
3606
4081
4155
1.8
912
1105
1007
1132
872
-4.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Supply
Total Mine supply Official sector sales2
Identifiable demand
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Jewellery fabrication
2190
1814
2017
11.2
546
418
541
512
576
5.5
Industrial and dental
439
410
466
13.8
114
116
120
116
114
-0.3
Bar & coin retail investment
636
778
1149
47.8
241
282
302
325
366
52.1
Other retail investment
220
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Exchange traded funds & similar
321
617
338
-45.2
5
291
39
4
-56
-1289.4
3806
3618
3971
9.7
906
1107
1002
957
1000
10.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-200
463
185
7
-2
5
175
Total identifiable demand Balancing Figure
-128 Source: World Gold Council
UniCredit Research
page 8
See last pages for disclaimer.
01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
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01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
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UniCredit Research
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01 August 2011
Global Economics & FI/FX Research
UniCredit Research* Thorsten Weinelt, CFA Global Head of Research & Chief Strategist +49 89 378-15110 thorsten.weinelt@unicreditgroup.de
Dr. Ingo Heimig Head of Research Operations +49 89 378-13952 ingo.heimig@unicreditgroup.de
Economics & FI/FX Research Economics & Commodity Research
EEMEA Economics & FI/FX Strategy
European Economics
Gillian Edgeworth, Chief EEMEA Economist +44 0207 826 1772, gillian.edgeworth@unicredit.eu
Marco Valli, Chief Eurozone Economist +39 02 8862-8688 marco.valli@unicredit.eu
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Güldem Atabay, Economist, Turkey +90 212 385 9551, guldem.atabay@unicreditgroup.com.tr Dmitry Gourov, Economist, EEMEA +43 50505 823-64, dmitry.gourov@unicreditgroup.at
Stefan Bruckbauer, Chief Austrian Economist +43 50505 41951 stefan.bruckbauer@unicreditgroup.at
Hans Holzhacker, Chief Economist, Kazakhstan +7 727 244-1463, h.holzhacker@atfbank.kz
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Marcin Mrowiec, Chief Economist, Poland +48 22 656-0678, marcin.mrowiec@pekao.com.pl Rozália Pál, Ph.D., Chief Economist, Romania +40 21 203-2376, rozalia.pal@unicredit.ro
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Jochen Hitzfeld +49 89 378-18709 jochen.hitzfeld@unicreditgroup.de
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Roberto Mialich, FX Strategy +39 02 8862-0658, roberto.mialich@unicredit.eu Kornelius Purps, FI Strategy +49 89 378-12753, kornelius.purps@unicreditgroup.de Herbert Stocker, Technical Analysis +49 89 378-14305, herbert.stocker@unicreditgroup.de
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UniCredit Research
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