Betting on the Future - How India can make this decade its own

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The panel included Shivansu Gupta, Sr Partner, McKinsey & Co., K Anantha Krishnan, CTO, TCS, and Dr Kamakoti, Director, IIT Madras.

Mr Shivansu Gupta, Sr Partner, McKinsey & Co

to make their supply chains resilient. Not only do they

G

want to make them efficient and get the lowest possible

lobally, if we look at what is happening in the last couple of years and what it means for India, we can see three major trends that will

affect the way companies operate: •

A fundamental shift in supply chains, which will lead to a very different future of global

Value

one and diversify the supply chain. The supply chains that can take some level of fluctuation are now having to fulfill anywhere between 15 to 17 percent of demand growth; they are not used to this. Also, the value chains themselves are shifting. In

trade. •

cost, but they also want to be resilient, like China plus

migration

towards

digital

native

the automotive sector, for instance, due to the shortage

businesses.

of semiconductors, a lot of the OEMs are thinking about

The shift in consumer preferences which have

how to bypass the Tier 1 semiconductor suppliers. This

evolved quite significantly.

is a massive shift and it continues to grow. This will

Our research shows that anywhere between three and five trillion dollars of trade flows every year will shift locations or shift countries in the next half decade. For instance, in the automotive sector, of the 1.7 trillion dollars of trade flows that happen globally, we expect anywhere between 260 to 350 billion dollars of trade flows to shift. This continues to grow because of the Covid shock and a lot of countries and companies want

have a lot of implications for all of us.

Value migration Value

migration

towards

digital

natives

is

happening. Over all, market capitalization has grown from 2019 to 2021. We saw that more than 40% of capitalization growth was captured by only 25 digital native companies—the Apples, Amazons and Microsofts of the world. A lot of them are electric vehicle suppliers

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The pandemic has triggered and

smaller size companies and grow bigger and

accelerated it significantly but it

bigger, which will also help drive value

has been building up over the

creation.

last 5 or 10 years.

Six imperatives There are six imperatives for most companies in India. These are:

~ K Anantha Krishnan, CTO, TCS

or producers like Tesla and other e-commerce companies.

Investing in innovation.

Focussing on growth, which will be driven in large part by Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

Building

cost

leadership

as

a

key

differentiator.

As people work from home, they prefer ordering

Improving engagement with consumers and connectedness.

things from home. This will be a big driver of growth. Also, this is something that we need to be careful

Driving partnerships and building asset light

about. In the Indian context, two aspects need to be

systems as opposed to investing in capex

considered:

based assets.

In the next seven to eight years, there will be

Investing in sustainability and focussing on ESG.

about 90 million job seekers in India. For that to happen, we need to drive a GDP growth of 8 to 8.5%. That is not going to be easy. Because,

K Anantha Krishnan, CTO, TCS

this means that both net employment and

W

productivity growth will have to be the best. We have to continue to grow the economy at a very high rate to be able to absorb them. A lot of value creation happens with large

firms that do anything more than 500 MN USD of turnover. 40% of India's exports are driven by these firms. Almost half of the revenue contribution to nominal GDP happens from these firms and the productivity they drive is more than 10X of other smaller firms. If we compare ourselves to even our Southeast Asian peers, we are much smaller in terms of the number of such firms of this size that we have in India as opposed to any other country. So to drive growth, we have to migrate from 18

APR 2022

hat you have illustrated is not just an India opportunity or India specific analysis, but I hear very similar messages from many parts

of the world.

Secondly, the expectations of the

consumers are also surprisingly uniform across the world. People have got used to digital intermediated consumption. The pandemic has triggered and accelerated it significantly but it has been building up over the last 5 or 10 years. This is a trend which will drive change in multiple industries and in multiple contexts, because the consumer finally drives your products or services, designs supply chain and everything else. Though unglamorous, the production and supply chains are very necessary at the back end. Sustainability is also changing things dramatically.

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The second bucket is what I call the AI-driven

Dr Kamakoti, Director, IIT Madras:

mania. AI technically has blossomed in the

C

last 15 years.

When I graduated from IIT

ovid has actually normalized things. We now

Delhi in the mid-80s, AI was not a field

compare India versus Europe as an apple

anybody would go to.

versus apple. The needs and trends seem to be

about 2006 or 2007, it shot up, predominantly

the same everywhere. We have our own strengths and

because of processor improvement, data

weaknesses. The game is all about exploiting the

capacity to handle large amounts of data and

weaknesses of others and leveraging our strengths to

so on.

grow. That's what we see in the semiconductors chip

industries, in the supply chain, in production

shortage. For example, the price of network switches

and even agriculture. Let's call this the

has increased from 15,000 to 36,000 rupees today.

Intelligent

Overall, I think, we are in a very good situation. We

continue.

should fight this battle. Being a Director of a premium

The

But suddenly after

Now it has become mainstream in

third

Enterprise. is

This

is

‘Ecosystem

going

to

Connecting

technology institution in the country, I am very excited

Technologies.’ In the last 100 years of

to make this better.

industries, supply chains essentially meant

Shivansu: Ananth, you have a unique vantage point

there is a well-defined outcome. There is

of being at the center of technology and innovation in

usually a set of players close to the outcome

one of the largest firms not only in India, but in the

and then there will a set of two, three or four

world. What do you think about the role that technology

tiers of suppliers—from the raw material all

will pay play across industries in the next decade?

the way to the end product. Everybody

Ananth: If you look at the global trend, there are four horizons or buckets of activity across industries. They are: •

expects value along the way. This way of thinking got established, perhaps in early industrial revolution. Now there is a slightly different twist because of the consumer’s

Leveraging digital technologies in any shape

changing behaviour.

With paths to the

or form as fast as possible. I've heard banks,

consumer

heavily

airlines and hospitals saying that we are a

intermediated, the supply chain is becoming

technology company with a banking license or

more and more dynamic. The data generated

airline license and so on. So aspiration is for

from the transactions has become fuel for

free but execution is hard. In the last 20 to 30

additional industries or additional players to

years, all technologists have become very

buy and sell that data and make something

good marketers. You said that the world's top

out of it. This results in very dynamic value

companies are all digital natives. It is fuelled

chains. We haven't yet found a good word for

by consumer demand and it will be a secular

it. Web 3.0 and Blockchain Technologies are

trend for the next 20 to 30 years. Some of us

coming up. Even 5G is jumping onto the

are involved in the India 2047 initiative.

bandwagon.

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Data, of course, is a well-established platform.

I feel that we have not tapped

So let us watch this space. The experience of it

real intelligence. I believe that

will be real. It could be virtual, like education

we need to set up some rural

online. Entertainment is served up virtually on

Technology Centres.

OTT and Metaverse. What else will be served virtually will be interesting to see. The bad guy industries like gambling and illicit trade

~ Prof. Kamakoti, IIT‐M

will be the first ones to adopt the new trend. So

we

have

to

watch

that

ecosystem

technology space quite closely. •

Finally, we have the science-led future. It is about grand challenges. Sustainability by itself is a huge one and there are many hard to abide by problems in sustainability. People talk that IT Industry is 2 percent of the world's emissions. But we have 30% problems.

the value chain of what goes into a test kit. There is a very efficient data marketplace which are stronger and which connects the demand and supply. It's a case study in itself. It's a very low-key kind of an achievement but it is important in the context of supply chains and new value chains.

processor

Shivansu: Prof Kamakoti, you are at the centre of

improvements, science and engineering in

training all our future leaders of the country. What is

healthcare, etc will play a big role. All these,

the foundation that is required in these leaders, so they

we will see in better context in India.

help capture this opportunity that we see in the next

Here,

I

think

computing,

The same experience story we have seen will unfold in two or three much unheralded ways. One is health. Take, for instance, CoWin app. The vaccination surge

decade, whether it's skill, infrastructure, talent or regulations? Prof Kamakoti:

I'll share my experience. Three

has, of course, now reached a plateau. If you go for

months before, we needed a bunch of Java coders to

vaccination today, you can get a certificate within five

develop some simple software for our process

minutes, which is outstanding. This kind of expectation

workflow. After six months of struggle, we got one

is there now in every industry. Every service product

person whom we offered Rs 80,000 as salary, which by

will become digitally intermediate in India.

IIT standards is a good pay. Two days later, he left

Every

industry must worry about this.

saying he got a job for Rs 1 lakh. This is the reality.

Lastly, let us look at the supply chain shifts, in

The point is we need to make them employable.

automotive, pharmaceuticals and chemicals. Covid test

There's no question about it. I always draw parallels

kit manufacturing in India was zero at the beginning

between banking system. I was on the board of one of

of the pandemic. Today, we are not just self-sufficient,

the oldest banks and I went through the records of how

but we export it. This has happened not because large

promotions were done. I noted that the person who

companies stepped in. It is a very large number of small

could count thousand notes in half an hour was given

and mid-sized companies, which have really dissected

promotion. Today, of course, we have counting

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Covid test kits, many industries from semi-urban areas

We have AI in every

pitched in. Some of them approached us for evaluation.

Department‐ chemical, chemistry, engineering design, applied mechanics and

I feel that we have not tapped real intelligence. I believe that we need to set up some rural Technology Centres. CAMS has helped to set up two centres where we keep

computer science. Therefore,

some 3D printers and computers. We train people. We

reskilling is very important and

can reach out to kids for their online education from

we have to make it more

these centres. We see some good improvement in the

inclusive.

rural colleges and we need to address this, if we really want to scale. Shivansu: We talked about digital natives and value

~ Prof. Kamakoti, IIT‐M

creation.

machine. Not just because of technology, jobs have been

cut

down.

Reskilling

becomes

extremely

What is the role that digital natives or

startups will play? Ananth: A mindset shift has happened in India in the last 10 or 15 years. Earlier, it was not respectable

important. From IIT, we are trying to bring a lot more of reskilling opportunities. Our online BSc in Programming and Data Science is a first of its kind, probably in Asia. We have 12,000 online students. We also have 12,000 offline students who joined earlier. So, in one year, we doubled the intake. Every year, 15 lakh students write the JEE for IIT admission but only 15,000 get selected. What happens to the remaining students who are not

for a person to say that he/she works for a startup after graduating from any institution. We would all try to join either an academic institution or go abroad or join a big company. Today, people join startups, not just at entry level, but at mid carrier level and even senior levels. So the talent pool is coming into the startup world. The quality and quantity has jumped up dramatically. It is a very positive shift.

selected? Online education is the answer. We can

Across sectors, there are low hanging fruits

definitely scale it up and if all IITs chip in, we can reach

available to all startups. Startups involved in SaaS are

out to many students.

doing B2B business and there are enough examples in

Though we teach online, there is live interaction and proctored examination. We conduct labs. We have started with AI and Data Science. Everyone today wants

Chennai. However, there is a lot of opportunities for core engineering or deep tech engineering companies and there are not many of them.

to attend the Deep Learning course. We have AI in every

Not much of Indian venture capital has gone into

Department- chemical, chemistry, engineering design,

this. A lot of work is done in this area in premier

applied mechanics and computer science. Therefore,

educational institutions but this is not getting

reskilling is very important and we have to make it

exploited. This is where the role of big companies in

more inclusive.

supporting the startups becomes very important. 

During the lockdown, when we had shortages of 22

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