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Kanwal Sibal, India's former Ambassador to Russia, focuses on where the West went wrong, Putin's calculations, and how the world is shaping up to the new realities.
T
he global focus is moving back to Europe, but
of the Soviet Union, Russia actually wanted to become
in my view, in a negative way. The West failed
part of NATO. Even President Putin in his earlier years
to construct an inclusive, security architecture
of the presidency wanted that. He thought of himself
in Europe after the demise of the Soviet Union. There
as a European and Russia as a European country. But
were many promises made to former Soviet President
this was spurned by Europe. The Western and American
Gorbachev by a host of Western leaders that NATO will
point of view was that there was an opportunity to
not go an inch beyond East Germany. That was one of
permanently weaken Russia geopolitically. They
the political basis for the unification of Germany. This
thought it must not be missed when Russia was weak
narrative is sometimes contested because this promise
and is incapable of any response. They wanted to
was not written down. But Matlock, the former US
isolate it from Europe.
ambassador to Russia has confirmed that this promise was given by various leaders including the British. Eminent American scholars who dealt with Russia and the issues of NATO enlargement over the years, like George Kennan, Robert Gates and William Burns —today the CIA director—have been emphatically speaking against the East-West expansion of Europe and have characterized it as a grave error by the West, which would inevitably invite a Russian response. It also needs to be mentioned that after the demise
Interference and expansions They have been five expansions of NATO, in phases, since the demise of the Soviet Union. I was the Indian Ambassador in Russia when Putin at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 gave a very impassioned speech against the expansion of NATO. This was not heeded. In 2008, Georgia and Ukraine were offered membership of NATO. The Georgian President at that time, Saakashvili, thought he had some encouragement because of the offer of membership. So he tested the
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waters. The result was that Russia took military action
the General Secretary, to commemorate the 300th
and two separate Republics, which were historically not
anniversary of the treaty between the Czars and the
part
republics
Crimean Tatars, this territory was made part of Ukraine.
—Abkhazia and South Ossetia. These were recognized
But it was one country. It's like a reorganization of our
by Russia. So Russia had very clearly drawn a red line,
own states in 1956.
of
Georgia
became
independent
but this was ignored.
Then there is this issue between the Eastern
In 2014, Ukraine witnessed the Maidan protests,
Ukraine and Western Ukraine. The fact is that parts of
which resulted in the overthrow of Yanukovych, a
Western Ukraine, historically, have never been part of
legitimately elected president. The protest was openly
either Soviet Union or Russia. They've been part of the
supported by United States. The Assistant Secretary in the State Department at that time, Victoria Nuland, who is now the US under-secretary and is visiting India, distributed cookies to the Maidan protesters. That was gross interference in the internal affairs of another
linguistic divisions between
country.
Western Ukraine and Eastern
Ukraine: The eastern & western parts As a result, Russia annexed Crimea. Objectively speaking, Crimea has always been thought of as an integral part of Russia. In 1954, when former Soviet Union Premier Khrushchev, who was a Ukrainian, was 34
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There are ethnic, religious and
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Ukraine. This is a fact of life.
Austro-Hungarian Empire or the Lithuanian Empire or part of Poland. They are Catholics. So there are ethnic,
After the Afghan fiasco, Biden
religious and linguistic divisions between Western
simply cannot accept another
Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine. This is a fact of life.
political and strategic defeat in Europe.
The Eastern Ukrainians are ethnically Russian or Russian-speaking. They identify themselves with Russia. That is the origin of the conflict in Donbas. The Ukrainian nationalists have been absolutely adamant not to yield an inch in terms of the constitutional amendment to respect the rights of the people of Donbas and recognise Russian language as a national language.
tried to deal with this peacefully for seven years. We've not been able to move forward on Donbas. Now, I will have to use force to make you listen to me." He made some draft proposals to the Americans. He didn't want
After 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, there were the Minsk agreements 1 and 2 which were brokered by France and Germany and which were ratified by the UN Security Council. For seven years,
to talk to the Europeans because his view is that the Europeans have no say in the matter. Putin’s proposals to be United States are:
these have not been implemented because the
•
No further enlargement of NATO
Ukrainian nationalist government is dead set against
•
No NATO deployment of forces or weapons in countries that joined NATO after 1997
it. One can understand them. Perhaps, they want to retain the entire territory as their Sovereign national
•
Consultative mechanism should be set up.
territory.
•
A hotline should be set up between the United States and Russia.
Stopping NATO
•
There
be
no
deployment
of
intermediate nuclear forces. (Incidentally, this
After that, in 2019, despite all this background, the
treaty has been reneged by the United States)
Ukrainian Parliament decided to make a constitutional amendment and apply for membership of NATO and
should
•
No NATO military activity in Ukraine or
EU as part of their Constitution. Because of the
Eastern Europe in the Caucasus and Central
annexation of Crimea, the West decided to start arming
Asia
Ukraine
and
training
their
army.
The
British
•
Nuclear weapons should be only on the
Ambassador said on television that their special forces
national territory of countries. In other words.
have trained 16,000 Ukrainian military personnel. Lots
The United States should move out their
of arms have gone into Ukraine. In fact, without Ukraine
nuclear weapons from Europe.
being a de-facto NATO member, it is being treated as a member of NATO.
We can understand that the United States would have never accepted the totality of these demands or
Putin said, "I have been opposing the expansion of NATO over the years. You never listened to me. I have
even the core of these demands. So United States said, , 'Well, in terms of strategic stability, which means
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Putin dreams of creating a Slavic empire.
Peter Rimmele Resident representative to India Konrad‐Adenauer‐Stiftung
R
ussia’s invasion of Ukraine is a
opportunity to a ack India.
The
crea ng a Slavic empire on the scale of
clear breach of interna onal
possibility of Ukraine becoming a NATO
the former Soviet Union. If Pu n
laws. I can compare the
member one day and threatening
succeeds in this coup, the inhabitants of
present stand taken by Russia to that of
Russia’s naval base at Sebastopol in the
the Bal c countries of Estonia, Latvia,
the US in the Cuban missile crisis, when
Black Sea was Russia’s concern; but their
and Lithuania and also Moldova fear
it threatened other na ons not to play
ac on is totally unacceptable. The end
that they will be the next in line. NATO
in the US courtyard. During the 1962
does not jus fy the means. First, they
has always acted with prudence and
Cuban missile crisis when the world’s
invaded Crimea and now they have
there will be no direct interven on by
a en on was diverted, China used the
a acked Ukraine. Pu n dreams of
NATO in the present crisis.
positioning of strike weapons in Eastern Europe and all
Slovakia would have never accepted this kind of a
that,
fresh
compromise. On both sides, for whatever reasons,
disarmament agreements but there is no question of
inevitably, it was leading to an inexorable conflict on
denying NATO membership to Ukraine because NATO
the ground.
we
can
negotiate
and
have
some
will continue to follow an open-door policy.'
Making Putin a villain
Also, after the Afghan fiasco, Biden simply cannot accept another political and strategic defeat in Europe. The transatlantic alliance is vital for the Americans and Europeans. If Biden demonstrated his helplessness in yielding to Russia's demands, his presidency will be virtually finished. So one can understand the reasons of US refusing to accept Russia’s proposals. Leave alone the United States, even the Baltic states, Poland and 36
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The US-Russia relations have been full of tensions for a long time. It's nothing new. Obama was extremely dismissive of Russia. He said the US was facing three problems: terrorism, Ebola and Russia. He demeaned Russia and a host of sanctions were imposed on Russia. Trump followed suit despite his efforts to find some kind of a position of dialogue with Russia. But because
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Putin had been demonised for long. All sorts of things are
dealing with someone of Putin's stature. Now there is much more supply of arms. There's a
being said about him. The
lot of encouragement being given to the Zelensky, who's
Russian leadership is convinced
a comedian-turned-President. He is now demonstrating
that the West wants regime
how successful he is in theatrics on the international
change in Russia.
stage. He keeps changing his mind every day. The West is building him up as a hero. He speaks to the US Senate, European Parliament, German Bundestag and British Parliament. They all encourage him.
of many toxic issues in US domestically, he couldn't do that. Also, in order to prove that Russia had not helped
This is not the way to find a negotiated solution;
him anything in the elections, he also imposed
you are encouraging a man who's a puppet in the hands
sanctions on Russia, on the ground that there have been
of forces he can't control. But since he is a damn good
Russian interference in US elections. The Democrats
actor and he won the election on the basis of his
think that they lost four years of governance because
theatrics, he has been able to mobilize a lot of
of Russia's interference in US elections. Especially
sympathy and support as a man who stands against
Blinken and Nuland will not forget this.
Russia.
Putin had been demonised for long. All sorts of
As a result of this, Germany has shut down for the
things are being said about him. The Russian leadership
time being the Nord Stream after resisting initially,
is convinced that the West wants regime change in
which I thought was very honourable. They have now
Russia. It is very clear to my mind that though not
been compelled and pressured to supply even arms to
necessarily realizable, this is the ambition of the West,
Ukraine. I think with the increased defence budget,
just as they brought about regime change in Ukraine.
they'll buy F35 from United States. The US Defence
They thought that if Ukraine became a very successful
Industry, of course, will be delighted.
democratic experiment, then the Liberals and the
The question of refugees is very legitimate and
Europeans in Russia would get encouraged. That is the
unfortunate. There is a lot of sympathy, not only in
reason why Navalny, who is a nobody, is lionised as if
Europe but elsewhere because already 3.5 million
he is the core of opposition in Russia that can
refugees have entered Poland and other countries and
destabilize the regime. The matter has been taken to
if the Germans receive 8 million as they expect, that
the United Nations Security Council, the UN General
will really be a disaster for the European economy.
Assembly and the UN Human Rights Commission.
One‐sided coverage on media
Hitting a low in diplomacy
The other point I want to mention is that what we
It is unfortunate that diplomatic norms have been
see is real NATO standard information war that is being
breached. You can't call a Head of State—like President
conducted. It is totally one-sided. It is so unfortunate
Biden did—a war criminal. You're closing the doors of
that our own TV channels and mainstream press have
any dialogue if you descend to this level, in terms of BUSINESS MANDATE
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fallen prey to it. There is simply no balance in
reporting. This is a lesson for us, in the future.
The UNGA doesn't reflect global opinion. There is pressure on countries to say 'yes' to
A lot of the fault lies on the Russian side. Everything they say is in Russian language. Nobody
sanctions. But most of the
understands the Russian language. They don't have any
world is not behind these
agencies which set out well-crafted English-language
sanctions.
reports, which can be reproduced. So all the news that we get is from western agencies, western leadership and social media. It is very easy to cut and paste these things into our mainstream national press and all of us begin to believe them, because there is a reality on the ground of bombing or infrastructure being destroyed.
situation where potentially, there could be a Third World War and rest of the world will suffer. The damage to the world economy will be immense. Already, a lot of pressure is being built up. The
Will the Russians succeed?
sanctions have been really unprecedented. The oil
I don't believe that the Russian military has got
prices shot up to $140 at one time. Every single dollar
stalled or they overestimated themselves. Their aim is
increase in oil price adds half a billion dollars to our
to secure the Donbas region, secure the Black Sea Coast,
oil bill. This is true of all the oil importing countries.
make
Ukraine
landlocked
and
bring
Ukraine
economically down on its knees. Ukraine is the biggest country in Europe with 200,000 troops. You cannot control the whole of Ukraine and Russia is very careful. They don't want to go to the Western Ukraine. Besides overstretching themselves, they don't want to go close to NATO because some mistake can be committed somewhere in the heat of the battle and then the whole thing can become conflagrated into something bigger. Russia is achieving their objectives. Maybe, it is slower than what they thought. Maybe they've suffered casualties. But to say that they will not prevail is more wishful thinking than anything else.
There is now great fear about potential famine in West Asia and especially in Africa, because both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of wheat. Now wheat trade will get disrupted.
"The UNGA doesn't reflect global opinion" We talked about the rule of law but how can the sanctions, which are not approved by the United Nations, come into effect? They talk of pursuing international law or rules-based order. On what rules are these sanctions based? If it was UN approved, it is fine. India will abide by them because it's our obligation under the UN Charter. Otherwise, what obligation do
The global impact
we have, especially as the sanctions hurt us?
The world has suffered already a great deal because
The UNGA doesn't reflect global opinion. There is
of the urges for war in Europe. We've had two World
pressure on countries to say 'yes' to sanctions. But most
Wars, both of which are essentially European wars. They
of the world is not behind these sanctions. I would also
call it World War because of their colonies everywhere
say that the arguments that are given by the West are
but they're European Wars. Now you are creating a
contestable.
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Ukraine Crisis: Is Global Focus Moving back to Europe?”: The conclave was followed by a discussion on the topic by experts such as Dr.Stanly Johny (The Hindu), Peter Rimmele (KAS), Kanwal Sibal (former Ambassador to Russia), Lt. Gen. SL Narasimhan (Member, National Security Advisory Board‐India), Ms. Tara Kartha (Distinguished Fellow, IPCS), Nandan Unnikrishnan (ORF), and Pankaj Madan (KAS).
They say that Ukraine cannot be denied the choice of becoming a NATO member as if when Ukraine makes a decision, all other countries are bound by that choice. The other countries also have a choice. They have to judge the entirety of the situation before they accept the choice made by X, Y or Z. We also know from realpolitik that the choice can be engineered.
Washington Post, The Economist or the Independent are not biased against us. There is talk of borders in Europe getting changed, quite forgetting that Yugoslavia doesn't cease to exist. It has been broken up into several states. Most of them have become members of NATO. It happened in Europe.
The double standards are very clear. After all, it's not the first time that another country has intervened against the sovereign country. We've had Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. We have seen destruction of infrastructure and civilian casualties and refugees in much larger numbers. Freedom of expression is a core value of the West.
Another concern is what if Russia wants to create a sphere of influence? The counter to that is what if the extension of NATO or EU happens? Doesn't that create a sphere of influence for the Europeans and the United States? So all these arguments are very debatable.
Two decades of Putin
But they have banned Russia Today and Sputnik news.
Putin has been in power for 22 years. He acted in
Why? Let the people have access to other views. If you
2008 in Georgia, in 2014 in Ukraine and once again in
say it is state-controlled media, so is BBC. If you think
2022 in Ukraine. He intervened in Syria to prevent a
that state-controlled media gives you biased news, I
regime change, intervened in Belarus, again to prevent
don't know if you think that BBC, New York Times,
the regime change, rightly or wrongly. He intervened
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in Kazakhstan recently at the request of its President. He intervened in Armenia in the conflict between
India's position on this has been
Azerbaijan and Armenia, but other than these, he has
criticized, that we are being
not intervened in areas, thousands of miles away, which
neutral; that we have abstained
pose no direct security threat to them.
in the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly. If you
India’s stand and our national interests
look carefully, our statements
India's position on this has been criticized, that we
are muted, no doubt.
are being neutral; that we have abstained in the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly. If you look carefully, our statements are muted, no doubt. They are understated but they're all critical of what Russia has done.
brownie points. Our abstention causes no harm to the security of the United States, but our condemnation of
We talked about the UN Charter, respect for sovereignty and respect for territorial integrity, but the focus is on abstention. Why did we abstain now? Our position is very difficult because our ties with the
Russia will directly cause threats to our security. Therefore, we have to weigh these two options.
India‐Russia‐China: The triangular balance
United States are very close. And they will, in course of
In the context of the ties between Russians and
time even become closer. In fact, US is the most vital
Chinese becoming closer and closer, there is a big
partner in terms of India's technology modernization,
problem for us because the triangular balance between
management best practices and investment. They also
India, Russia and China is getting destabilized in favour
supply us high-end weapons, which are very necessary
of China. Russia still values its relationship with us. It's
for maritime security. So there's a whole range of
important for them to have us on their side. But if we
domains in which India is now dependent on the United
go against them, then our ability to maintain some kind
States. But there are also some critical domains in
of Russian stakes in this triangular equation will
which we are dependent on Russia. About 60 to 70
become weaker and weaker and that will add to our
percent of our defence platforms are Russian.
security threats. In fact it will weaken our security. We
In the UN Security Council or in other forums, if we keep voting against Russia and keep condemning it, it
are not fence-sitting. We are only protecting our national interests.
will mean a breakdown of our relations with Russia.
As a result of this crisis, US, Europe and Russia will
With the 15,000 Chinese troops sitting at the border
become weakened and China will emerge stronger. The
and if Russia starts slowing down spares or servicing
US arms companies have benefitted from the war. That
or ammunition, what will be the state of our defence
US is now counting on China to isolate Russia and it
preparedness? Any responsible government has to
shows its weakness. Nuclear weapons do not give a
weigh this and not simply satisfy the Americans or
nation security but atmanirbhar can.
anybody else, by voting with them and score some 40
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