SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Dynamic Briefing Generated 09 October 2020 for Marco Antonio Gonzalez
SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Last review on Sun 15 September 2019
About This dynamic briefing draws on the collective intelligence of the Forum network to explore the key trends, interconnections and interdependencies between industry, regional and global issues. In the briefing, you will find a visual representation of this topic (Transformation Map – interactive version available online via intelligence.weforum.org ), an overview and the key trends affecting it, along with summaries and links to the latest research and analysis on each of the trends. Briefings for countries also include the relevant data from the Forum’s benchmarking indices. The content is continuously updated with the latest thinking of leaders and experts from across the Forum network, and with insights from Forum meetings, projects communities and activities.
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Executive summary This Transformation Map provides a contextual briefing for one of the Sustainable Development Goals the United Nations’ framework for making real progress towards a more sustainable future by the year 2030 - by mapping related strategic issues and interdependencies. The content, including attached key issue headings and texts, is drawn from expert- and machine-curated knowledge on the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence platform; it is not a reproduction of the official text of the SDG. The UN introduces this Goal as follows: 'The threats of international homicide, violence against children, human trafficking and sexual violence are important to address to promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development. They pave the way for the provision of access to justice for all and for building effective, accountable institutions at all levels. While homicide and trafficking cases have seen significant progress over the past decade, there are still thousands of people at greater risk of intentional murder within Latin America, SubSaharan Africa and around Asia. Children’s rights violations through aggression and sexual violence continue to plague many countries around the world, especially as under-reporting and lack of data aggravate the problem. To tackle these challenges and build a more peaceful, inclusive societies, there needs to be more efficient and transparent regulations put in place and comprehensive, realistic government budgets. One of the first steps towards protecting individual rights is the implementation of worldwide birth registration and the creation of more independent national human rights institutions around the world.'
1. Access to Law and Justice
7. Reign of Uncertainty
Many people lack access to legal services and protections, in both poor and wealthy countries.
Disasters and upheaval only promise to become more common, making resilience increasingly important.
2. Justice and Human Decision-Making
8. Human Mobility and Exploitation
A better understanding of human expertise and experience in the practice of science is critical.
Criminal enterprises are wreaking havoc on vulnerable people.
3. Violence and Instability Rampant organized crime is spawning violence and stirring broader instability.
4. Illicit Trade and Financial Flows The global shadow economy is believed to be worth more than the GDP of most countries.
5. Rising Multipolarity Emerging economies have had a growing influence on international governance.
6. Rule of Law and Enforcement An effective, independent judiciary can bolster a country’s economic health.
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Access to Law and Justice Many people lack access to legal services and protections, in both poor and wealthy countries The United Nations has estimated that approximately one billion people - a significant portion of the current global population of 7.7 billion - are legally “invisible” in the sense that they cannot prove who they are officially and retain related legal protections. This lack of access to legal information and institutional assistance puts the dignity, safety, and security of large numbers of people at risk. A lack of access to functioning legal infrastructure, for example, can have significant related impacts on access to healthcare and education - and can restrict individual economic development. This dynamic was recognized in the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, established in 2015 to provide a roadmap for a more sustainable global economy by 2030 (goal 16, for example, includes a target of ensuring access to justice for all). Tangible international commitments to build the infrastructure necessary to enable security more broadly and meet these legal needs are therefore critical. Ensuring access to justice, legal advice, legal institutions, and forensic science is a global need. This challenge takes different forms in different places, but is critical in both poor and wealthy countries. In the US, for example, as many as 90% of the people who find themselves in court in some states go without adequate legal representation, due in part to the high costs of legal fees. Meanwhile the United Kingdom, which has historically provided comprehensive criminal legal aid based on the founding principle that all citizens should have equitable access to public services, has seen large cutbacks. Government spending in the UK on legal aid is reported to have been cut by more than £1 billion since 2012, the number of people receiving advice or assistance in social welfare matters has dropped by 90%, and the number of defendants appearing in court without legal advice or representation has increased significantly. Trust in the justice system is foundational for security and stability in any country. Ensuring access to legal advice and infrastructure that operates in a transparent and robust way remains a critical challenge for both ensuring that trust, and for achieving peaceful and inclusive societies. This requires not only the careful consideration of resources, but also reform of the current oversight of justice systems. Related insight areas: Public Finance and Social Protection, Values, Digital Identity, Education and Skills, Inclusive Design, Global Health, Sustainable Development, Gender Parity, Human Rights, Global Governance, Systemic Racism
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Latest knowledge World Economic Forum
Overseas Development Institute
Social justice, inclusion and sustainable development need a ‘Great Reset’. Here are 3 key steps we can take
Justice for all and Afghanistan’s future 07 October 2020 The November 2020 pledging conference in Geneva will provide a vital platform for the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (GoIRA) and the international community to demonstrate progress and recommit to a peaceful future for the country. Given the recent deal between the United States of America and the Taliban, and tentative steps forward on an intraAfghan dialogue including all key domestic actors, the outcomes of the pledging conference will be decisive in determining how Afghanistan grasps the present prospect of a peaceful and stable future. Ensuring justice for all, in line with Afghan and international commitments to achieving SDG16+, is an essential prerequisite for a durable peace.
08 October 2020 Widespread environmental crises and global Black Lives Matters protests have sparked palpable restlessness for change. This is how we should respond. Global Investigative Journalism Network
Investigating the Police: Reporting Tips & Tools 08 October 2020 Police forces are supposed to uphold the law and protect citizens from violence. However, all too often the police themselves are corrupt and violent, even in countries that claim to be democratic. Investigating cases of official misconduct, corruption and aggression, and challenging official narratives, stand at the heart of investigative journalism. In addition, journalists not only frequently rely on police accounts as primary sources but at times are themselves victims of excessive force and detention by police and other security forces. In this global GIJN webinar, “Investigating the Police: Reporting Tips and Tools,” co-organized with the African Investigative Journalism Conference, we bring together four experienced journalists: two from Africa and two from outside the continent, who have investigated law enforcement.
Land Portal
Sahar Jallad on indigenous land rights and COVID-19 06 October 2020 Sahar Jallad shares her views on how indigenous land rights can contribute to improved public health, climate change, and biodiversity, or a 'green recovery. Chatham House
Imagine a world without violent conflict 05 October 2020
World Resources Institute
Project Syndicate
Mining Threatens 20% of Indigenous Lands in the Amazon
The Catholic Challenge 05 October 2020
07 October 2020
Church adherents pose no inherent threat to liberal democracy. The problem in the US is that people in the highest positions of authority, Catholic and Protestant alike, are pushing at the barriers between church and state, erected so carefully by America’s founders to ensure that the people, not God, would govern.
New WRI research shows that legal large-scale mining concessions and illegal mining areas overlap with more than 20% of Indigenous land in the Amazon.
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Justice and Human Decision-Making A better understanding of human expertise and experience in the practice of science is critical Reconstructing crime requires an understanding of physical and digital forms of evidence, and of how experts collect, preserve, analyse, interpret and present that evidence. While the impact of cognitive and psychological factors on how decisions and inferences are made is well documented in many domains, it has yet to be fully evaluated and understood in relation to the application of science in justice systems. Some studies have addressed the impact of environmental factors on judges during sentencing decisions, and research has assessed the impact of factors such as context, motivation, expectations, and experience on decision-making in scientific evaluations of fingerprint and DNA analysis - as well as in fields including forensic anthropology and crime scene investigation. Research has shown that in some circumstances extraneous context can impact the conclusions of forensic science examiners, to the extent that when the same evidence is presented but a different context is provided (or all context is removed), the conclusion of an examiner based on their analysis of that same piece of evidence can change. This is an important consideration for any decision made under conditions of uncertainty, which is often the case for scientists, investigators, judges, legal advocates and policy-makers.
Related insight areas: Fourth Industrial Revolution, Education and Skills, Civic Participation, Artificial Intelligence, Behavioural Sciences, Systemic Racism, Neuroscience
Decision making is critical for the interpretation of evidence, and so better understanding how these decisions are made and how they can be affected by environmental factors should be a priority for any justice system. This is particularly the case for systems where juries of lay people consider the evidence presented by opposing advocates before they deliver a verdict. In these scenarios, the decision making of individual experts is being presented to the court, and jury members are both making decisions as individuals and then reaching a final verdict as a collective, thereby introducing group dynamics as a factor that needs to be considered. As the Fourth Industrial Revolution proceeds, the roles of people in reconstructing crimes and delivering justice are going to change. As technological capabilities enhance our understanding of how decisions are made, there is the potential to increase the transparency of the process. For example, studies have used eye-tracking technology to better understand expert decision-making, and the role of experience both in crime scene management and in reaching conclusions based on evidence presented in crime reconstructions. The interaction of human decision-making with new technologies promises to become an increasingly a critical element of evaluating evidence.
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Latest knowledge Project Syndicate
World Economic Forum
Managing “Managed Freedom”
Deepfake democracy: Here's how modern elections could be decided by fake news
08 October 2020 While Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s government has implemented some reforms, it has gone only as far as a system of “managed freedom.” There is room for some dissent, though how much is not always clear, and the state is still quick to revert to repressive measures. That is not good enough.
05 October 2020 The emerging threat of deepfakes could have an unprecedented impact on this election cycle, raising serious questions about the integrity of democratic elections, policy-making and our society at large.
Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Project Syndicate
Snapshot of a shadow war
The Republican Threat to the Republic
08 October 2020
02 October 2020
The rapid escalation in the long-running conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia which took place in late September 2020 has been shadowed by a battle across social media for control of the international narrative about the conflict.
As US President Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans' behavior over the past four years has made abundantly clear, American democracy itself is on the line in this year's election. Without an overwhelming victory for Democrats at all levels, Republican minority rule will be locked in indefinitely.
Project Syndicate
Is the Rebellion Against Science Over?
RAND Corporation
06 October 2020
Evaluation of Initial Progress to Implement Common Metrics Across the NIH Clinical and Translational Science Awards (CTSA) Consortium
After years of politicians and media figures maligning scientific expertise as elitist, the COVID-19 pandemic has revived the public standing of science. But whether this crisis will spur the public and policymakers to heed the science on other global challenges, like climate change, remains to be seen.
02 October 2020 Mixed-methods evaluation of the implementation of three Common Metrics and the performance improvement framework by The Clinical and Translational Science Awards (CTSA) Consortium.
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS)
The Anti-Royalist Possibility: Thailand’s 2020 Student Movement 06 October 2020 The current protest movement in Thailand is breaking new political ground while acknowledging their predecessors. Khorapin Phuaphansawat 6 October 2020 Recent months have opened up a new possibility in Thai politics. In addition to calling for the dissolution of parliament and constitutional reform, the anti-government movement, composed primarily of urban secondary school and university students, […] The post The Anti-Royalist Possibility: Thailand’s 2020 Student Movement appeared first on ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute .
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Violence and Instability Rampant organized crime is spawning violence and stirring broader instability Rising levels of criminal activity in some countries and within certain political systems have given rise to armed violence, destabilized governments, and fuelled armed terrorist groups. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime’s Global Study on Homicide published in 2018, organized crime is a leading cause of homicidal violence in some countries in the Americas - which has the highest homicide rate of any region in the world. In Mexico, for example, there were 33,341 murders in 2018, a 7% increase compared with the prior year that was partly a result of the fragmentation of large cartels and the government’s inability to react to smaller gangs killing for greater control of territory, according to the foundation InSight Crime. Conflict and insecurity are major barriers to development; a World Bank World Development Report published in 2011 noted that countries that had experienced relatively high levels of violence between 1980 and 2000 also suffered from an average poverty rate that was 21% higher than in countries with low levels of violence during the same period. Rapid urbanization and glaring income inequality (particularly in the southern hemisphere) have fostered slums beset by crime, violence, and a general lack of security. Cape Town is a prime example. Nyanga, a Cape Town slum, had the highest murder rate in the country as of 2018, according to the South African Government News Agency; the 308 murders reported there during the year ended in March 2018 marked a 9.6% increase compared with the prior period. Stark inequality and a lack of both educational opportunity and jobs have bred a sense of frustration and rage in Nyanga, according to a researcher at the University of Cape Town cited in a 2018 Bloomberg News report. In failed and failing states, fights over access to natural resources like minerals and oil has exacerbated conflict. Meanwhile in conflict zones in the Sahel region and Libya, illicit trafficking in drugs and the smuggling of migrants have served as a means to fund insurgencies. The failure of internationally-sponsored peace and transition processes to address illicit flows and provide a clear distinction between criminal activity and groups that have legitimate grievances, or to protect state institutions from the corrupting influence of the illicit economy, are recognized reasons for the resurgence of conflict and state failure. Related insight areas: International Security, Sustainable Development, Middle East and North Africa, Cities and Urbanization, Africa, Justice and Law, Agile Governance, Latin America, Global Risks
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Latest knowledge London School of Economics and Political Science
The Conversation
Three women: stories of Indian trafficked brides
Securitisation cannot stop the COVID19 trafficking boom at the Triple Frontier between Paraguay, Brazil, and Argentina
30 September 2020 “I tried to escape in the middle of the night,” Mahira* recalled. “With a small packed bag, I tiptoed towards the door thinking that he was asleep. Suddenly, he grabbed me from behind and attacked with a cutlass.” I sat, stunned, as she lifted her saree and revealed a wide scar below her knee. In north India, there is a particular history of purchasing brides from other states due to the “male marriage squeeze”: there is an excess of eligible men but not enough local women for marriage. This is caused by an imbalanced child sex ratio caused by sex-selective abortion and female foeticide.
08 October 2020 The recent closure of borders at the Triple Frontier, particularly between Paraguay and Brazil, has impacted heavily on local commerce and employment. But despite increased surveillance, militarisation, and mobility restrictions, trafficking of drugs and contraband is booming. Partial legalisation of marijuana and a turn towards tourism represent more realistic alternatives in the long term, writes Isabelle Somma. RAND Corporation
The New Humanitarian
The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism
EXCLUSIVE: More than 50 women accuse aid workers of sex abuse in Congo Ebola crisis
06 October 2020
29 September 2020 This essay provides observations on the future role of the armed forces in counterterrorism and the future role of counterterrorism forces in great power competition.
Not one woman said she knew of a hotline, email address, or person to contact to report the incident.
War on the Rocks
Global Investigative Journalism Network
The Central American Conundrum: Toward a New Regional Security and Economic Order
How to Investigate Forced Disappearances in Latin America 29 September 2020
05 October 2020 How should journalists investigate what has happened to people who have disappeared? What is the best way of dealing with their families, the organized crime groups often involved in the cases, and corrupt officials? Mexican investigative journalist Marcela Turati and Óscar Martínez from El Salvador, both specialists on reporting on transnational organized crime, shared their tips during GIJN’s Spanish language webinar.
Why has U.S. foreign policy toward Central America failed, and failed badly? For over a hundred years, the United States has struggled to find a policy toward Central America that improves its economic prosperity and security. The region’s challenges today are many : weak and failed states, drug and human trafficking cartels, and an exploding migration and humanitarian crisis. At a time when the U.S. military is deployed across the globe to promote U.S. interests, it is grossly ironic that Central America remains one of the most dangerous places on the planet. The spillover effects are striking. The New Humanitarian
Opioid abuse in Syria seeps into Turkish borderlands 01 October 2020 Without adequate mental health support or addiction treatment, years of neglected trauma are contributing to a growing drug problem.
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Illicit Trade and Financial Flows The global shadow economy is believed to be worth more than the GDP of most countries Illicit trade can involve legal goods that have nonetheless violated regulations during transit - based on how they were sourced or produced, or through theft, diversion, or misrepresentation. The financial flows generated by illicit trade appear to be growing. A working paper published by the International Monetary Fund in 2018 presented data on 158 countries showing that the average size of their shadow economy relative to GDP between 1991 and 2015 was 31.9% (the largest was Bolivia, at 62.3%, and the smallest was Switzerland, at 7.2%). The revenues generated by transnational crime are estimated to be worth as much as $2.2 trillion annually, according to a report published in 2017 by the think tank Global Financial Integrity. According to the report, counterfeiting brings in as much as $1.1 trillion annually, drug trafficking earns as much as $652 billion, and organ trafficking earns as much as $1.7 billion. Frontier Economics, a research firm, has estimated that the value of digitally-pirated films may reach $622 billion in 2022, up from $160 billion in 2013, while the value of digitally-pirated music may grow to $117 billion from $29 billion over the same period. The negative effects of illicit trade are far-reaching and dramatic. An estimated one in 10 medical products circulating in low- and middle-income countries is either sub-standard or falsified, according to a report published in 2017 by the World Health Organization. As many as 169,000 children may be dying every year from pneumonia due to sub-standard and falsified antibiotics, according to the report, while in sub-Saharan Africa, sub-standard and falsified antimalarials are responsible for as many as 158,000 deaths and $38.5 million in unnecessary health care costs annually. Companies, governments, and non-governmental organizations are all demonstrating an increased awareness of this problem and are cooperating to address it - though successful partnership models have yet to emerge. Through the World Trade Organization's Bali Package, passed in 2013, governments have affirmed their commitments to a secure trade facilitation agenda, and both the G20 and the B20 (a summit of business leaders from G20 countries) have highlighted a need to address illicit trade issues. Related insight areas: Corruption, Infrastructure, Banking and Capital Markets, Retail, Consumer Goods and Lifestyle, Supply Chain and Transport, International Trade and Investment
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Latest knowledge Al Monitor
Business and Human Rights Resource Centre
Corruption continues to threaten Iraq’s stability
So. Africa: Report calls for end to export credits to coal operations
08 October 2020
01 October 2020
"Iraq is expected to experience a 9.7% decline in GDP. Oil revenues, severely affected by a steep crash in oil prices, have nearly halved,” said Hennis-Plasschaert, who urged Iraqi politicians to move speedily forward with reforms. Hennis-Plasschaert also warned about the increasing trend of "silencing of peaceful voices — by exerting pressure on activists and media, by confusing the scene or even worse, by shedding blood." Much of this is being done by outlawed militias backed by Iran. Iraq's weak rule of law is the core reason for corruption as political leaders, influential businessmen and even tribal sheikhs exploit the system in their favor.
‘Up in Smoke: Human rights and environmental impacts of export credits to coal. The case of South Africa, 23 September 2020 The coal industry is well-known for its serious climate implications and effects on local communities. Still, European export credits have contributed to expand the coal industry in countries already dependent on coal, including South Africa, a new Swedwatch report finds. Coal is the most polluting source of energy and emissions from coal-fired power plants the single largest contributor to climate change. International Crisis Group
Watch List 2020 – Autumn Update
International Crisis Group
30 September 2020
Time to End the Lethal Limbo of the U.S.-Mexican Drug Wars
Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January and May 2020. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Autumn Update of the Watch List 2020 includes entries on Afghanistan, Colombia, Kosovo-Serbia, Lebanon and Somalia.
07 October 2020 The failure of the “war on drugs” – now a welter of spreading conflicts – is a U.S.-Mexican co-production. Washington should stop pushing Mexico City to throw ever more military force at organised crime. Instead, it should help its southern neighbour find solutions tailored to each locale. Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Serbia: Dreams, Nightmares and the Need for a Democratic Security Governance
Clamping the Wheel of the Money Launderers’ ‘Vehicle of Choice’: Reform of the UK Company Registry
05 October 2020
29 September 2020 Image: adobestock_361802940.jpeg.
October 5, 2000, is a Serbian metaphor for a dream of democracy. Like many dreams, it encouraged and mobilized those who shared it, while it was unrealistic about the scope and pace of changes after the defeat of Milosevic’s regime and naïve about the ways to move from traumatic experiences into a future free from fear. .
Australian Institute of International Affairs
The Impact of Coronavirus on Human Trafficking 28 September 2020 Human traffickers swiftly adapted to border closures and other measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Meanwhile, victims have been exposed to further exploitation, with access to essential services restricted.
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Rising Multipolarity Emerging economies have had a growing influence on international governance As globalization has spurred higher levels of economic growth around the world, new countries have emerged as major powers in world politics. This marks an extraordinary advance in terms of human development, as hundreds of millions of people escape poverty and join the middle class. At the same time, however, the economic rise of Brazil, China, India, and other emerging markets has upended the traditional power balance among countries - along with traditional structures of global governance. Whereas in the past a few large, industrialized countries could set the rules for the global economy, today a much broader consensus among nations is required. This is reflected in the increased importance of the G20 (as opposed to the more exclusive G7) as a critical venue for international economic coordination, and in the emergence of greater numbers of institutional investors from emerging markets who now wield global influence, such as the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which began operations in 2016. Rising multi-polarity, or the distribution of power among a greater number of countries and entities, raises the possibility of a more balanced, and ultimately more legitimate form of global governance; more places can now have more of a say on the critical global issues that affect their respective citizens. However, this wider dispersion of global power has also created new sources of friction and risk, and even in some cases the greater possibility of armed conflict. That is due in part to the fact that the decisionmaking processes that underpin global governance do not tend to adapt and change as quickly as the relative influence of the countries involved. There is therefore an urgent need to find new ways to facilitate decision-making and international coordination, in order to ensure that global challenges can be met effectively. As greater numbers of more diverse countries must now reach agreement on how to best address global issues, the potential gridlock that could result would benefit no one. The ways in which emerging powers engage with existing structures of global governance, and the ways that established powers react to these changes, will define world politics in the 21st century. Related insight areas: The Great Reset, Geopolitics, Global Risks, Emerging Multinationals, China, International Security, Brazil, Financial and Monetary Systems, India
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Latest knowledge GovLab - Living Library
Project Syndicate
Reset: Reclaiming the Internet for Civil Society
An Interview with Nouriel Roubini 06 October 2020
08 October 2020 This week, PS talks with Nouriel Roubini , Professor of Economics at New York University's Stern School of Business, Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, and host of the NourielToday.com broadcast.
Book by Ronald Deibert: “Digital technologies have given rise to a new machine-based civilization that is increasingly linked to a growing number of social and political maladies. Accountability is weak and insecurity is endemic, creating disturbing opportunities for exploitation. Drawing from the cutting-edge research of the Citizen Lab, the world-renowned digital security research group which he founded and directs, Ronald J. Deibert exposes the impacts of this communications ecosystem on civil society. He tracks a mostly unregulated surveillance industry, innovations in technologies of remote control, superpower policing practices, dark PR firms, and highly profitable hack-for-hire services feeding off rivers of poorly secured personal data.
Brookings
Competing for order: Confronting the long crisis of multilateralism 05 October 2020 In September 2020, against the backdrop of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, the heads of state or government of 170 countries met—virtually—to commemorate the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the United Nations. In an outcome document that had been negotiated over the summer, they tasked the Secretary General with developing ideas to reinvigorate multilateral cooperation in twelve areas, ranging from public health to peace and security. .
The New Humanitarian
Why the UN must set up an independent body to tackle sexual abuse
Brookings
08 October 2020
The world needs better convening that fosters collective action
Years of impunity won’t end until both victims and aid workers feel they can report abuse safely and that action will be taken.
05 October 2020 COVID-19 has exposed and accelerated many trends of globalization. Development actors find themselves up against a host of risks and challenges that no organization can resolve on their own.
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Coping With COVID-19 and Future Pandemics 06 October 2020 The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the mutual vulnerability to and the lack of preparedness for the spread of catastrophic infectious diseases in Europe and the United States. Millions of people have been infected and hundreds of thousands have died. Around the world, countless more will perish before this disease is halted by the development of therapeutics and a vaccine. Project Syndicate
Post-Pandemic Geopolitics 06 October 2020 Estimating the long-term effect of the current pandemic is not an exact prediction of the future, but an exercise in weighing probabilities and adjusting current policies. When envisioning the international order in 2030, five scenarios stand out.
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Rule of Law and Enforcement An effective, independent judiciary can bolster a country’s economic health An effective, impartial and efficient legal system is the necessary foundation for efforts to curb corruption. Enforcing laws against officials who demand petty bribes, for example, has the instantaneous impact of removing an invisible tax levied on citizens seeking basic healthcare, or on businesses seeking simple documentation. It also makes a longer-term impact by shifting incentives; officials become more cautious about making such demands, because the risk associated with doing so has risen. Meanwhile citizens and businesses may start to refuse to pay bribes, because they see an opportunity to avoid related costs while still successfully interacting with the state. The confidence that can be inspired by such a legal framework can encourage companies to set up operations in a particular jurisdiction, rather than taking their business elsewhere. An economic analysis published in the journal World Development found that checks on corruption and “private capture” (the manipulation of public laws by private firms or individuals) had a stronger empirical relationship to economic growth than the protection of property rights in all 74 economies studied.
Related insight areas: Public Finance and Social Protection, Banking and Capital Markets, Justice and Law, Sustainable Development, Illicit Economy
Effective oversight of an independent judiciary is critical for establishing strong rule of law and public trust. The World Justice Project produces annual rankings of the rule of law in different countries. In December 2017, it published an evaluation of changes made to Mexico’s procedures for investigating crime, prosecution services, and trial organization. By the deadline for implementation of the new system, only about half of the country’s municipalities had complied, which is unfortunate as survey data has found that judges are far more likely to be present during court hearings under the new system - most likely because they are more frequently recorded. Corruption can be exported by multinationals operating in jurisdictions where the rule of law and law enforcement are relatively weak. The US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the UK Bribery Act of 2010 seek to clamp down on this phenomenon, as does the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Anti-Bribery Convention. According to a Transparency International report on the subject published in 2015, the OECD convention is actively enforced in only two countries outside of the US and the UK: Germany and Switzerland. In addition, the convention was only moderately enforced in six more countries, according to the report, and the countries that enjoy active or moderate enforcement of the OECD convention account for less than a third of global exports.
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Latest knowledge London School of Economics and Political Science
Business and Human Rights Resource Centre
Kenya: How regulation has impacted digital lenders, previously accused of predatory behaviour and unethical debt collection strategies
Why peace looks a long way off in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict 08 October 2020
05 October 2020
At the end of September, conflict erupted between forces fighting for Armenia and Azerbaijan, reviving a decadesold dispute over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armine Ishkanian argues that while it remains to be seen if a diplomatic solution can be found, there seems little prospect of peace emerging in the short-term.
The Central Bank of Kenya's Covid-19 relief measures has saved borrowers from unethical debt collection strategies by digital lenders, including breach of privacy. Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Hunting Season: The Struggle for Media Freedom in Serbia
Business and Human Rights Resource Centre
Europe’s new law to end corporate abuse should learn from Obama's legacy
02 October 2020 Last month, a member of a news crew tried to film the building of a company whose alleged involvement in corrupt activities was being investigated. He was told by a security guard to move away, and was warned that he might be “shot like a rabbit.” This incident vividly depicts the extent to which the journalism profession has been degraded in Serbian society. This was just one of more than 150 cases of attacks on journalists this year, on the twentieth anniversary of democratic changes which were supposed to have shifted Serbia towards guaranteed and substantial freedom of expression.
07 October 2020 For those in Europe seeking evidence that robust due diligence laws work both to end abuse in business and promote prevention, there are powerful lessons to learn from the new assertiveness of the Forced Labour Division of the Customs and Border Patrol. University of St. Gallen
Study: Civil aviation in 2040 from the Swiss perspective 06 October 2020
European Council on Foreign Relations
Finance, democracy, and sovereignty: How Europe should respond to the FinCEN Files
The Center for Aviation Competence (CFAC-HSG) at the University of St.Gallen and the Aviation Research Center Switzerland (ARCS) have been investigating what the Swiss expect from civil aviation up to the year 2040. More than 80 per cent of those surveyed expect the air travel market to grow in the next 20 years. Flight bans or other restrictions on mobility were only welcomed by a minority of respondents.
01 October 2020 The FinCEN Files provide a stark reminder that protecting European companies and protecting European interests are not always the same thing. Governments should look again at the relationship between megabanks and democratic politics.
Observer Research Foundation
Governance through the digital disruption of democracy 05 October 2020 Democracies run on trust. Citizens need to trust that they have truthful information, that their governments will protect them, and that their votes matter. Digital technologies are undermining that trust. Unless we work to better govern these technologies, trust will be lost forever and the promise of democracy may be lost with it.
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Reign of Uncertainty Disasters and upheaval only promise to become more common, making resilience increasingly important Humanity has a way of aggravating natural uncertainty. The calamitous wildfires that swept across the Amazon rainforest in Brazil in 2019 due to increased agricultural activity - and were amplified by the effects of climate change - provided a good example. Technology in particular can trigger an uptick in the sort of low probability, potentially-high-impact events that are liable to push governments to rethink the way they plan. Disruptive trends like the powerful influence of social media can make long term policy planning difficult, particularly if decision-makers expect to be able to make clear calculations of costs versus benefits, or to have a complete set of information on hand before decisions have to be made. The Arab Spring, which saw a number of protests organized spontaneously via social media, illustrated how suddenly disruption can occur when traditional political and administrative institutions are seen as no longer adequately meeting public needs. This has become a particularly acute risk now that global wealth is concentrated in the hands of relatively few people - fuelling the politics of resentment and feeding the rise of populist demagogues.
Related insight areas: Geopolitics, Civic Participation, Climate Change, Real Estate, Artificial Intelligence, Nuclear Security, International Security, Migration, Financial and Monetary Systems, COVID-19, Cybersecurity, Global Risks, Infrastructure
With uncertainty and ambiguity only likely to increase, it will become more important to build resilience into governance systems instead of relying on brittle and narrowly-conceived policy solutions. For example, the COVID-19 outbreak forced many governments to sometimes belatedly realize the need to adequately invest in primary health services and the general health of their workforces. This lack of evidencebased processes for preparing for and dealing with emergencies has been evident even in wealthier countries with relatively strong healthcare systems - and it calls for building stronger foresight ability into every aspect of governance, whether in the public or private sector. Collaborative, multi-stakeholder, and digitally-enabled processes that can tap into the broad-based wisdom of the crowds could be helpful in this regard. Building resilience should mean not just that systems can bounce back from crisis and shock, but that they can change and transform for the better. Some examples of the power of building foresight for troubled communities include the Global Business Network’s work with stakeholders in South Africa on developing future scenarios, and the efforts of Reos Partners to organize collaborative work on the peace process in Colombia.
16 SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Briefing, October 2020
Latest knowledge The Conversation
VoxEU
Government in a pandemic: how coronavirus caused a dramatic shift in our relationship with the state
The COVID-19 policy response and bank lending 03 October 2020
08 October 2020 The spread of the COVID-19 virus and the associated economic downturn has prompted vast policy responses by governments. This column assesses the effectiveness of policies targeted at supporting bank lending conditions in the euro area. It finds that banks were largely able to accommodate the unprecedented credit demand due to the funding cost and capital relief of the pandemic response measures. The close coordination between monetary policy and prudential measures has contributed by generating a sizable amplification effect on lending. Consequently, an even larger decline in firms’ employment was averted.
As we head into the colder months, the increased threat of a second spike in the pandemic has forced the UK government to reintroduce new restrictive measures, including targeted local lockdowns, new rules (“of six”) and early pub closures. At the same time, compliance is fraying. One of the deeper issues with the government restrictions, which has less often been discussed, is a moral one. It concerns the level of control we grant to the government over our individual healthcare decisions. Understanding this dimension helps to explain why many people around the world are disobeying restrictions. World Resources Institute
Oxford Review of Economic Policy
Meeting the Climate Challenge Through a New Climate Federalism
COVID-19 and public-sector capacity 02 October 2020
06 October 2020
The paper argues that to govern a pandemic, governments require dynamic capabilities and capacity— too often missing. These include capacity to adapt and learn; capacity to align public services and citizen needs; capacity to govern resilient production systems; and capacity to govern data and digital platforms.
The task of decarbonizing the U.S. economy is too big for any one level of government to tackle alone. The “new climate federalism” model proposes a framework for the federal, state and local governments to work together to address climate change.
Australian Institute of International Affairs
Harvard Kennedy School – Journalist’s Resource
Election Beat 2020: Will white workingclass voters be decisive this time?
Playing Politics with the Court: The US Supreme Court, Abortion, and Republican Electoral Strategy
06 October 2020
01 October 2020
"Trump is likely to get a lower percentage of their vote in 2020, but it could be offset by a yet unmentioned factor -the relatively low voting rate of whites without a college education," writes Thomas E. Patterson. The post Election Beat 2020: Will white working-class voters be decisive this time? appeared first on Journalist's Resource .
For decades, opposition to abortion and Roe v. Wade has been central to Republican social, political, and legal identity. Following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the future of the Supreme Court will be front and centre in the final weeks of the 2020 presidential election.
Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit
Solidarity, Strength and Substance: Women’s Political Participation in Afghanistan 04 October 2020 In Afghanistan, men make decisions; women are typically absent from decision-making processes. This commonly heard and felt public-sphere narrative is reflected in stories that women...
17 SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Briefing, October 2020
Human Mobility and Exploitation Criminal enterprises are wreaking havoc on vulnerable people There are more than 240 million international migrants in the world, equivalent to about 3.3% of the global population, and the total number of displaced people is the highest on record, according to the International Organization for Migration’s World Migration Report 2018. This spike has been driven by efforts to find refuge or seek out economic opportunities. However, concerns about integrating migrants and security have ensured that legitimate opportunities for the displaced fail to match demand. As a result, a massive number of people are being exploited by an unscrupulous and exploitative system that profits from human trafficking and illicit labour. According to a report published by Europol, in 2015 alone smugglers transporting people to and from Europe created an industry that was worth more than ₏6 billion and employed more than 40,000 workers. While smugglers have become an important lifeline for people caught up in conflict or chronic poverty, they have also become a potent source of violence, insecurity, and brutal exploitation. Human trafficking is a universal problem; it occurs everywhere and can take many forms. On any given day in 2016, 40 million people were victims to modern slavery, including 25 million people in forced labour and 15 million people in forced marriages, according to a report published in 2017 by the International Labour Organization (ILO). Women and girls account for 71% of modern slavery victims, according to the report. This impacts both public well-being and private sector operations; the ILO report noted that the manufacturing sector, which accounted for 15% of forced labour exploitation cases, includes a medical gloves industry that is worth more than $5 billion annually and largely relies on migrant workers at outsourced factories in Asia. Documented concerns at many of these factories included excessive working hours and the illegal retention of passports, according to the report. While related legal provisions and protections exist, they are insufficient. A report published in 2014 by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime estimated that more than 2 billion people were still not benefitting from protections included in the United Nations Trafficking in Persons Protocol - which had entered into force in 2003. Public-private partnerships are essential for addressing human rights abuses, and the private sector can play a particularly important role by fostering healthy debate about the global mobility of labour. Related insight areas: Systemic Racism, Human Rights, International Security, Future of Mobility, Migration, Workforce and Employment, Future of Economic Progress
18 SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Briefing, October 2020
Latest knowledge ReliefWeb
International Crisis Group
Child Marriage in Humanitarian Settings in South Asia: Study Results from Bangladesh and Nepal
Colombia: Peace Withers amid the Pandemic 29 September 2020
08 October 2020 The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare shortcomings in the implementation of the FARC peace agreement. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to continue pushing for full implementation of the 2016 accord and encouraging the government to pursue a humanitarian ceasefire with the National Liberation Army (ELN).
Child marriage, defined as formal marriage or informal union before the age of 18, violates every child’s right to reach their full potential. Despite laws and international commitments to reduce the practice, child marriage remains widespread, with one in five girls married before their eighteenth birthday, globally (UNFPA, 2020). In both development and humanitarian contexts, child marriage is rooted in gender inequality and sustained by cultural and social norms, poverty and lack of opportunities. However, crises may amplify or alter pre-existing drivers, or introduce new drivers, or even potentially, new moderators.
The New Humanitarian
Power, poverty, and aid: The mix that fuelled sex abuse claims in Congo 29 September 2020
The New Humanitarian
Sex-for-jobs rumours were common, Ebola aid workers said. So why didn’t anyone investigate?.
What’s at stake in the US election for refugees and asylum?
Brookings
05 October 2020
Climate Change Doesn’t Have to Stoke Conflict
If he wins, Biden is promising a return to more humane policies, but rolling back Trump-era changes, given their scale, will not be straightforward.
28 September 2020 Among the many sobering projections of harm to be caused by climate change is this eye-popping statistic: on average , according to economists, a rise in local temperature of half a degree Celsius is associated with a ten to 20 percent increase in the risk of deadly conflict. If accurate, that means the likelihood of such strife is swiftly rising. U N climate scientists estimate that manmade emissions have generated one degree of global warming since preindustrial times, and because the pace of climate change is fast accelerating, they predict another half a degree of warming as soon as 2030.
The New Humanitarian
Conflict in the Caucasus, Venezuelan venting, and non-profit NDAs: The Cheat Sheet 02 October 2020 A weekly read to keep you in the loop on humanitarian issues. RAND Corporation
Developing Recovery Options for Puerto Rico's Economic and Disaster Recovery Plan 30 September 2020 This report summarizes the strategic planning process in support of the government of Puerto Rico in its development of a congressionally mandated recovery plan.
19 SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Briefing, October 2020
References 1. Access to Law and Justice
4. Illicit Trade and Financial Flows
Social justice, inclusion and sustainable development need a ‘Great Reset’. Here are 3 key steps we can take, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org Investigating the Police: Reporting Tips & Tools, Global Investigative Journalism Network, gijn.org Mining Threatens 20% of Indigenous Lands in the Amazon, World Resources Institute, www.wri.org Justice for all and Afghanistan’s future, Overseas Development Institute, www.youtube.com Sahar Jallad on indigenous land rights and COVID-19, Land Portal, www.youtube.com Imagine a world without violent conflict, Chatham House, www.youtube.com The Catholic Challenge, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org
Corruption continues to threaten Iraq’s stability, Al Monitor, www.almonitor.com Time to End the Lethal Limbo of the U.S.-Mexican Drug Wars, International Crisis Group, www.crisisgroup.org Serbia: Dreams, Nightmares and the Need for a Democratic Security Governance, Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI), www.ispionline.it So. Africa: Report calls for end to export credits to coal operations, Business and Human Rights Resource Centre, www.business-humanrights.org Watch List 2020 – Autumn Update, International Crisis Group, www.crisisgroup.org Clamping the Wheel of the Money Launderers’ ‘Vehicle of Choice’: Reform of the UK Company Registry, Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), rusi.org The Impact of Coronavirus on Human Trafficking, Australian Institute of International Affairs, www.internationalaffairs.org.au
2. Justice and Human Decision-Making
5. Rising Multipolarity
Managing “Managed Freedom”, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org Snapshot of a shadow war, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, www.aspi.org.au Is the Rebellion Against Science Over?, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org The Anti-Royalist Possibility: Thailand’s 2020 Student Movement, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute (ISEAS), www.iseas.edu.sg Deepfake democracy: Here's how modern elections could be decided by fake news, World Economic Forum, www.weforum.org The Republican Threat to the Republic, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org Evaluation of Initial Progress to Implement Common Metrics Across the NIH Clinical and Translational Science Awards (CTSA) Consortium, RAND Corporation, www.rand.org
Reset: Reclaiming the Internet for Civil Society, GovLab - Living Library, thelivinglib.org Why the UN must set up an independent body to tackle sexual abuse, The New Humanitarian, www.thenewhumanitarian.org Coping With COVID-19 and Future Pandemics, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, www.gmfus.org Post-Pandemic Geopolitics, Project Syndicate, www.project-syndicate.org An Interview with Nouriel Roubini, Project Syndicate, www.projectsyndicate.org Competing for order: Confronting the long crisis of multilateralism, Brookings, www.brookings.edu The world needs better convening that fosters collective action, Brookings, www.brookings.edu
3. Violence and Instability
Acknowledgements
Securitisation cannot stop the COVID-19 trafficking boom at the Triple Frontier between Paraguay, Brazil, and Argentina, London School of Economics and Political Science, blogs.lse.ac.uk The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism, RAND Corporation, www.rand.org The Central American Conundrum: Toward a New Regional Security and Economic Order , War on the Rocks, warontherocks.com Opioid abuse in Syria seeps into Turkish borderlands, The New Humanitarian, www.thenewhumanitarian.org Three women: stories of Indian trafficked brides, The Conversation, theconversation.com EXCLUSIVE: More than 50 women accuse aid workers of sex abuse in Congo Ebola crisis, The New Humanitarian, www.thenewhumanitarian.org How to Investigate Forced Disappearances in Latin America, Global Investigative Journalism Network, gijn.org
Cover and selected images throughout supplied by Reuters. Some URLs have been shortened for readability. Please follow the URL given to visit the source of the article. A full URL can be provided on request.
20 SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Briefing, October 2020
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21 SDG 16: Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions Briefing, October 2020
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