2. Demographics Overview

Takoma/Langley Crossroads has a high proportion of foreign-born residents, making it a more racially and ethnically diverse area relative to Prince George’s County as a whole. Despite having lower median incomes and rates of educational attainment compared to the County as a whole, the study area has a cultural vibrancy reflected in its local demographics and retail establishments. As is consistent with many low- to middle-income communities, tenure is skewed toward renter households. However, low, stable vacancy rates over the past decade indicate a strong residential market in the study area.

Since 2010, population growth in the study area has been low relative to the County overall. This trend is expected to continue over the next five years, as the study area is projected to experience a 0.1 percent annual decrease in population from 2020–2025, compared to a projected 0.5 percent and 0.6 percent annual growth rate in Prince George’s County and Montgomery County respectively. According to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments 2018 projections, regional annual population growth is forecasted to increase by 0.1 percent over the same period. While TLC’s population is not projected to grow, the study area is 15 times denser than the County because of the concentration of multifamily housing within TLC and the prevalence of low-density, single-family homes elsewhere in the County. New TOD in TLC would likely engender modest population growth and incremental increases in population density within the study area (see Figure 2A).

Figure 2A: Population Overview

Takoma/Langley Crossroads Study Area Prince George’s County

Total Population (2020)

14,665 904,929

Annualized Population Growth (2010-2020) 0.2%

0.5%

Projected Annual Population Growth (2020-2025) -0.1%

0.5%

Population Density (Pop. per sq. mi.) (2020) 27,717

1,875

Source: Esri1 proprietary data model, based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and other data sources (see footnote); HR&A Advisors, Inc.

1 See footnote on the following page for an explanation of Esri Business Analyst, one of the data sources used in this report. Esri data was used to supplement U.S. Census Bureau and American Community Survey data.

The Hispanic population in Prince George’s County is concentrated to the northwest, where the County abuts Washington, D.C., Montgomery County, and the City of Takoma Park. Within the study area, the neighborhoods directly north of New Hampshire Avenue and University Boulevard have the highest concentration of Hispanic residents (see Figure 2B).

Prince George’s County (2019) Takoma/Langley Crossroads Study Area (2019)

Figure 2B: Hispanic Population by Census Block Group

Source: Esri proprietary data model, based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and other data sources; HR&A Advisors, Inc.

1 Esri’s ArcGIS Business Analyst platform provides current year and 5-year projected data on demographics, housing, employment, and other metrics. All estimates and projections are informed by a full time series of intercensal and vintage-based county estimates from the US Census Bureau, including the American Community Survey (ACS) five-year and one-year averages. Esri allows users to gather data from customizable geographies that go beyond Census tract boundaries, which was useful for gathering data based on the specific boundaries of the TLC study area. To model data for current and future years, Esri adjusts Census data using county-to-county migration data from the Internal Revenue Service; building permits and housing starts; residential postal delivery counts from US Postal Service; data on new and planned residential construction projects tracked by third-party sources; and local data published independently by municipalities. Ancillary data sources are tested against the 2010 Census and controlled to the most recent ACS estimates. In the context of COVID-19, Esri made additional adjustments to some demographic and socioeconomic datasets based on weekly state-level unemployment insurance claim data and forecasts by academic institutions and think tanks. More information about Esri estimates and projections methodology can be found at the following link: https://doc.arcgis.com/en/esri-demographics/data/updated-demographics.htm

Median household income in the Takoma/Langley Crossroads study area is 32 percent lower than median income in Prince George’s County. However, the geographic distribution of median income by Census block group within the study area reveals a range from $47,000 to $107,000, with higher median incomes concentrated at the eastern edge of the study area, encompassing the Adelphi Park and University Gardens neighborhoods (see Figure 2C).

Figure 2C: Median Household Income by Census Block Group Prince George’s County (2019) Takoma/Langley Crossroads Study Area (2019)

Source: Esri proprietary data model, based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year and 5-Year Estimates and Current Population Survey, Bureau of Economic Analysis local personal income series, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index, and other data sources; HR&A Advisors, Inc.

*Median household income for all households within a half-mile of Purple Line stations in Prince George’s County.

Over the past decade, the housing market within the study area has remained relatively stable. There have been no significant deliveries or demolitions and the vacancy rate has remained between 5 and 6 percent (see Figure 2D). The high proportion of renter households within the study area, compared to that of the County, likely indicates a lack of affordable homeownership options (see Figure 2E).

2 As measured by the US Census, the median household income divides the income distribution of a specific geography into two equal parts—half of all households have an annual income above the median, and half fall below. Income includes the income of the householder and all other individuals 15 years old and over in the household, whether they are related to the householder or not.

Figure 2D: Change in Units by Tenure Takoma/Langley Crossroads Study Area (2010-2020)

Figure 2E: Housing Units by Tenure Takoma/Langley Crossroads Study Area (2020) Prince George’s County (2020)

Source: Esri proprietary data model based on the U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2010), American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Housing Vacancy Survey, and the Current Population Survey USPS residential lists, and other data sources; HR&A Advisors, Inc.

Source: Esri proprietary data model based on the U.S. Census Bureau Decennial Census (2010), American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, Housing Vacancy Survey, and the Current Population Survey USPS residential lists, and other data sources; HR&A Advisors, Inc.

The high proportion of the population in TLC without a high school diploma (see Figure 2F) may be in part driven by a large foreign-born population that recently immigrated to the United States. Sixty percent of residents in the TLC area were born outside the United States, and more than a quarter of these residents are relatively recent arrivals who immigrated within the past 10 years. Most immigrants to the area—82 percent—come from Central America, led by immigrants from Guatemala and El Salvador.3

Because 68 percent of the study area population aged 25 or older does not have a high school diploma or comparable credential, an opportunity exists for the County to establish supplemental education or workforce development programs as part of its strategy to retain and grow businesses in the area.

Figure 2F: Educational Attainment Share of Population Aged 25+ (2020)

Source: Esri proprietary data model, based on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates and other data sources; HR&A Advisors, Inc.

3 Data on foreign-born residents based on US Census 2018 ACS 5-Year estimates. Data availability at the Census tract level means this data is based on a geographic area that slightly extends beyond the boundaries of the defined TLC Study Area.