Page 8 • Wednesday, March 25, 2020
Reflections 2020
Cassville Democrat
Local agriculture sees strong year
Lavender farm celebrates a year in business; beef outlook positive
Outlooks for beef and dairy farmers are looking positive after the past year, and a local farming operation has celebrated a year in business.
Beef outlook offers boom potential
Cattlemen may be on the verge of a banner year, if international trade moves according to indicators. Scott Brown, state agriculture business specialist with the University of Missouri Extension in Columbia, spelled out the details at the 90th annual Stone County Livestock and Forage Conference in Crane in February. According to market indications and federal statistics, Brown said the beef market domestically has remained strong. A 2.5 percent growth in meat supplies every year since 2014, the year of peak beef prices, would have normally driven prices down. It has not, because demand has increased. Americans were eating 180 pounds of meat per capita in 2014 are now eating 205 pounds. At present, beef demand domestically appears to have flattened and may decline in the next few years. “Everything looks good versus what we don’t know,” Brown said. With “pretty good grass” in Missouri in 2019, herd sizes grew within the state, one of only five states in the nation to do so. Growth did not even match the decreases in herd supplies that took place in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Feed yards reported 12 million head of cattle in them, record levels for several months, putting “feed yards in the driver’s seat,” Brown said. The U.S. Department of Agriculture revised its projections of cattle supplies downward. Lower supplies will help to bolster prices. Brown identified contributing factors that may impact the picture over time. Prime quality beef continues growing in price, while select beef is dropping in price. This led Brown to conclude producers must continue to provide high quality beef to satisfy consumers, keeping them from turning, as an alternative, to “chicken wrapped in bacon.” Pork chops in the past had commanded prime prices. Now the prime market demand is for bacon. The emphasis on quality, Brown noted, may have a price. “The time may come when below average calves aren’t worth very much,” he said. The big variable in the marketplace will be international trade, Brown declared. The new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement would at least firm up trade across the adjacent borders. Conditions in the Asian markets in particular are reaching a critical point. A trade agreement appears in the offing with Japan, where U.S. beef has carried a 38.5 percent tariff. Brown projected an increase in sales to Japan in 2020, after a drop in 2019. China has become an even greater wild card than in recent years. The Chinese, Brown said, who have historically consumed half the world’s pork supply, have seen their domestic production of pork drop by 19 million metric tons in two years, due largely to the impact of the Asian swine flu, a factor that is “far from done.” If the Chinese seek to import pork, they will turn to the European Union. The Asian beef
Farming often involves construction, or at least being handy with basic skills. During Field Day at the Southwest Center near Mt. Vernon, Dave Stahl, of Emery Sapp and Sons, gave high school students attending a chance to finish concrete in a form, pushing the mixture evenly for a finished square. Cameron Parrish, of El Dorado Springs, was one of the teens taking the challenge. Murray Bishoff/Cassville Democrat market has been dominated by Australia and New Zealand, but both those countries have suffered from heat, and Australia from wild fires, driving down their supplies and driving up their prices. Pork producers, Brown said, already anticipate the Chinese will turn to them. Beef sales may be next. Factors like the Coronavirus continue to create instability for the Chinese, pressuring the government to make a choice. Brown added he also does not think Australia and New Zealand will be able to keep up with demand in Japan, again pushing sales toward the U.S. Full details on the latest trade agreement with China have not yet emerged to see what its impact will have. Brown reported the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that in Phase 1 of the new agreement, U.S. beef and beef product exports to China could reach $1 billion annually. U.S. exports of pork products, at $700 million in 2017, are expected to reach $1.7 billion annual in the next two to three years. The USDA further reports that due to the new agreement, “China will expand the scope of beef products allowed to be imported, eliminate age restrictions on cattle slathered for export to China, and recognize the U.S. beef and feel products’ traceability system.” If that holds true, projections estimate trade on top of the $19.5 billion trade level to China in 2017, before the current tariff/ trade war began, could more than double in the next two years. The University of Missouri College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources has made projections on prices cattle producers can expect in the next two years. Fed steer prices are likely to hold steady, inching upward from $120 per hundredweight. Feeder steers, the college projected, would rise from $170 per hundredweight to $180. Brown acknowledged some stressers still threaten producers. Corn prices remain low with a harvest of 1.9 billion bushels in 2019. The USDA expected a harvest of 2.5 billion in 2020 as the market tightens. “If we have serious dryness, that will move corn prices up, and it will push feeder cattle prices down,” Brown said. “We can’t have much higher feed costs.” Traditionally, cattle cycles have run around 15 years, the last one taking from 1995 to 2014 to rebound to price peaks
again. Brown said a lot of the pressure on prices in that last cycle came from low demand. He did not expect that cycle to take nearly as long to recover this time. Brown said producers with questions can reach out to him @ MUScottBrown or call 573-882-3861.
Forecast of new Farm Bill offers new options for dairymen
Dairy producers received three varied ways to look at their operations during the annual Dairy Day conference hosted by the Monett Chamber of Commerce and the University of Missouri Extension Service last year. For an unusual handson approach, veterinarian Dr. Scott Poock with the College of Veterinary Medicine at the University of Missouri in Columbia dissected an udder from a recently slaughtered cow. Poock looked for practical issues to discuss as well as probing the half of the udder showing evidence of mastitis, which likely led to why the cow was culled. An udder, Poock said, can hold from 100 to 400 milliliters of milk. Milk does not flow on command, but only after stimulation. Generally Poock recommended 90 seconds. An initial flow of milk will follow, approximately 12 ounces, then a second flow will generally follow. Early lactation cows require less stimulation. Some cows become conditioned to release milk at the sight of a calf, which is why some dairies have a calf in the milking barn. Poock advised against milking a cow as long as six or eight minutes to completely drain the udder. The prolonged pull of a vacuum on the nipple can hurt the cow, making it harder for her to give milk subsequently. He recommended a salve to treat the nipple and carotine plug to retard leakage after milking. Some animal rights advocates, Poock said, have gone so far as to call milk “puss” and unfit for consumption. Poock said that is inaccurate. The average number of white blood cells in Missouri milk is 300,000 cells per milliliter, while human blood has 15-30 times that amount. For every 100,000 cell increase in the somatic cell count, a cow loses 5.5 pounds of milk production and reproductive performance. Producers try to hold the somatic count to 250,000 milliliters The count will jump when the cow deals with infection, like mastitis in the udder. CONTINUED ON PAGE 13
Veterinarian Dr. Scott Poock dissected an udder for producers at the Monett Dairy Day conference, identifying the mechanics of the organ and problems from illness that could surface. Murray Bishoff/Cassville Democrat
