2014 – CROP REPORT - OLIVES October 2014
GOYA EN ESPAÑA, S.A.U. Seville - SPAIN
2014– Crop Report
2014 – INITIAL CROP REPORT Olives - SPAIN
Index • CROP ESTIMATION • PRODUCTION TREND • CROP BALANCE • PRODUCTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES • U.S. OLIVE IMPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
2014 – Crop Report
2014 – CROP ESTIMATION (3rd Forecast) Olives - SPAIN
Total crop estimation lower than last year Third forecast reduced quantities by 3% from previous forecast Weather conditions and olive oil prices will affect final quantities harvested. (000 TM)
VARIETY \ CAMPAING
2013
2014
600
3rd Forecast
GORDAL / QUEEN
11
24
500
MANZANILLA
148
189
400
HOJIBLANCA
289
231 300
CARRASQUEÑA
64
26
CACEREÑA
40
27
OTHER
21
20
TOTAL
573
517
*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA
200
100
0
GORDAL
M ANZANILLA
HOJIBLANCA CARRASQUEÑA
2013
CACEREÑA
OTHER
2014
TOTAL
2014 – Crop Report 2014 – PRODUCTION TREND Olives - SPAIN
(000 TM)
CAMPAING
2014
% CHANGE
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
GORDAL / QUEEN
32
51
38
29
34
11
24
+118%
MANZANILLA
203
134
210
155
156
148
189
+28%
HOJIBLANCA
183
209
254
255
235
289
231
-20%
CARRASQUEÑA
28
43
44
40
26
64
26
-57%
CACEREÑA
23
33
33
26
19
40
27
-33%
OTHER
17
20
21
17
18
21
20
=
TOTAL
486
489
600
521
488
573
517
-10%
VARIETY
*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA
3rd FORECAST
2014– Crop Report CROP BALANCE (as August 30th) Olives - SPAIN
Availability increased by 6% Total Usage growth +1%, with 66% for exports and 34% for domestic market. Estimated stocks are 14% higher than previous year.
900 800 700 600 500 400
(000 TM)
CAMPAING BALANCE
2012/13
2013/14
AVAILABITILY
840
891
TOTAL USAGE
482
486
FINAL STOCK
312
354
300 200 100 0 A vailab ilit y
T o t al U sag e
2012/13
*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA
F inal St o ck
2013/14
2014 – Crop Report PRODUCTION IN MAJOR EXPORT COUNTRIES OLIVES
(000 TM)
CAMPAING
2014/15
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
SPAIN
486
489
600
521
488
573
517
GREECE
105
107
135
130
197
100
135
MAROCCO
100
90
110
100
100
100
90
ARGENTINA
95
220
90
150
60
140
28
TURKEY
300
390
330
400
410
430
350
ITALY
69
59
70
76
74
42
78
PORTUGAL
13
12
10
9
9
14
16
EGYPT
440
409
350
385
453
400
450
PERU
9
75
73
81
80
80
??
EEUU
48
24
154
26
71
68
40
COUNTRY
ESTIMATION
Spain is the biggest producer of olives in the world, with 20% of the total world production, around 2,511,500 Mt. Other major producer countries include: Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Argentina &, Morocco. .
*Source: IOOC – ASAJA
2014 – Crop Report U.S. OLIVE IMPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN OLIVES
ORIGIN
2013 t
%
SPAIN
66.226
50%
GREECE
27.757
21%
MOROCCO
14.357
11%
ARGENTINE
5.128
4%
ITALY
4.300
3%
TURKEY
3.380
3%
EGYPT
2.594
2%
PORTUGAL
1.456
1%
OTHER
6.799
5%
TOTAL
131.997
100%
Turkey Italy 3% 3%
Egypt Portugal 1% 2%
Other 5%
Morocco Argentine 11% 4%
Spain 50% Grece 21% Spain
Grece
Morocco
Argentine
Turkey
Egypt
Portugal
Other
*Source: IOOC, compiled from data of U.S. customs statistics – (General Imports)
Italy
2014 – Crop Report INITIAL CROP REPORT Olives - SPAIN MAIN FACTS
Olive crop for 2014
is estimated to be higher than last year’s crop.
By variety, Queens are double in tonnage from last year. No commercial carryover available. Quality and size are good, with smaller percentage of azafairon. We should expect lower prices compared to last year prices. Harvest has finalized. For Manzanillas, tonnage is expected to be 20/30% higher than last year, but final quantities will depend on weather conditions. Good sizes and quality. Costs should be very similar to last year. Still a couple of weeks to finish the harvest. Hojiblancas will be lower in quantity and higher in price, due to the effect of olive oil prices and a short crop expected for olive oil season. Still at the very beginning of the harvest. Other cost factors, specially the euro/dollar exchange rate, will have a more important impact in the final cost of the products. Spain is still the largest olive producer in the world, with 20% of total production. Seville continues to be the most important region in Spain for table olives. Spain remains the number one supplier for olives imported into the US, with 50% share.