FUTURE ENERGY
NATIONAL MODELLI ELECTRICITY SECTOR PLAN A federal climate research team – the Electricity Sector Climate Information (ESCI) project – this year achieved their $6.1 million goal of delivering high-quality climate data for the electricity sector to use. The publicly available resources of the ESCI project include high-resolution climate models, in-depth case studies, and a full risk assessment workflow – so it’s no surprise that industry leaders are already leveraging these new tools for electricity sector planning and risk modelling. The ESCI project Australia’s federal government is focused on delivering a more secure, reliable, and affordable energy market – but what does that look like in the context of future climate risk? The Electricity Sector Climate Information (ESCI), a government project that provides climate modelling data for the national electricity market (NEM), has spent the last three years answering this question. Born from recommendations of the 2017 Finkel review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market (NEM), the ESCI project ran from 2019 to 2021, and brought together climate scientists with key actors in the electricity sector. Collaborators included the CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Key deliverables of the $6.1 million ESCI project include high-resolution climate modelling data, a comprehensive climate risk assessment workflow, and case studies of interactions between climate risks and the electricity market. Some of the project’s intended outcomes for electricity market players include improving the safety of assets, maximising profitability, and pre-empting future shifts in consumer demand.
24
September 2021 ISSUE 15
What’s on offer? High-resolution climate modelling A leading achievement of the ESCI project is the production of high-resolution climate projections that stretch as far as the year 2100, captured at sub-daily intervals. The ESCI project’s national climate datasets simulate future change in climatic variables like minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and forest fire danger index (FFDI). According to a spokesperson for the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, climate modelling datasets have been specifically developed to address the interests of the energy industry. “This data is available across all of Australia, however particular focus has been placed on 168 locations which are of interest to the electricity sector, including major demand centres and transmission lines, renewable energy zones and large conventional generators.”
The ESCI climate datasets, available in multiple formats including maps and time series plots, will empower industry stakeholders to consider how weather and climate variables can affect future infrastructure security, energy generation and demand patterns.
The climate risk assessment workflow The three-year ESCI project has also delivered a comprehensive Climate Risk Assessment Framework, a five-step method for the electricity sector to integrate climate change risk into future decision-making. Designed and tested by electricity sector stakeholders as well as climate experts, the ESCI’s Climate Risk Assessment Framework draws on existing documentation such as: » International Standard ISO 31000: Risk Management » International Standard ISO 14090: Adaptation to Climate Change Each of the five steps in the ESCI’s comprehensive climate risk assessment is described and demonstrated by online user guidance resources.
www.energymagazine.com.au
