June 2017
AUTONOMOUS
CARS
ALSO INSIDE HOW YOU CAN BE AN
INTELLIGENCE BOOSTER
BUDGET
2017
MICROCARS A CURE FOR GRIDLOCK?
PLUS: COMING EVENTS
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Inside the June 2017 issue of
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CONTENTS
JUNE 2017 volume 127, number 6
MUNICIPAL WORLD – CANADA’S MUNICIPAL MAGAZINE
AUTONOMOUS
DIGITAL TRENDS
VEHICLES
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY & COUNCIL
PUBLIC
CONSULTATION
DIGITAL
7 9
15 BOOSTER 19 CHANGING PACE 21 of CHANGE STRATEGY
BE AN INTELLIGENCE
23
INVESTING IN THE
25
SMART CITY
BUDGET
2017
27
BROADBAND CONNECTIVITY
BEST PRACTICES
29
THE REGULARS COMING EVENTS
8, 13, 17, 43
CONNECTING THE DOTS EDITOR’S CORNER
35
2
ENVIRONMENTAL ZONE GOVERNANCE ZONE
37
MANAGEMENT ZONE
33
31
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INSIDE THIS ISSUE AUTONOMOUS CARS
JUNE 2017
Editor’s Corner
While autonomous cars seem to be a far-flung, futuristic idea, the reality is that they are already on the horizon … and communities must start planning for them.
BE AN INTELLIGENCE BOOSTER
Discover how you can be an intelligence booster, using the power of brain science to unlock the best in others.
BUDGET 2017
The 2017 Federal Budget has been set and there is much to discuss – but it has great implications for municipalities. With this new budget, local governments will have the potential to help give the Canadian people what they need – and what they want.
Online Exclusive! Editor’s Flashback This online-only feature column highlights select articles from past issues of Municipal World’s monthly print magazine. In this issue, we share “Microcars: A cure for Gridlock?” – by Bernard Fleet, from the January 2014 issue.
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Susan M. Gardner Earlier this year, Municipal World and Juice Inc. partnered to do some research around municipal workplace dynamics. Specifically, the Are You Smarter? survey asked, “Are you smarter around some people than you are around others?” The point was to determine: Do municipal workers lose access to their smarts around certain people, and if so, why?
For those who are able to retain their smarts around all people, how do they do it? Most of us can likely think of times or situations where we’ve been in an intense conversation with a manager or colleague and suddenly find ourselves unable to find the words to express ours thoughts. We know we have useful information to share on the subject, or an opinion that can bring value … and yet are left blankly staring or fumbling in an effort to communicate. While the concept of “intelligence” can be determined using reliable measures that seldom fluctuate over time or circumstances (IQ tests, for example), the experience the survey was trying to capture has more to do with how smart people feel. What (or who) triggers us to lose our ability to offer intellectual insight? The results of the survey were shared in the April issue (and are now available through
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the Featured Stories section of MunicipalWorld.com as well) – and have generated some interesting conversations around the phenomenon for employees and leaders in the municipal workplace. In this month’s lead article, Juice’s Brady Wilson unpacks some of the brain science around this experience, and offers important strategies to help us navigate such situations, and regain our smarts in a “matter of seconds.” Without giving them away, all of these tips are easy to follow and provide some essential insight as to the triggers and the solutions. While we won’t always be able to control the circumstances around us that may lead to us “losing our smarts,” we can certainly control how we react to the situation. As Brady explains, becoming aware of when you are losing your smarts is half the battle. Believing in yourself and your abilities are the other half.
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AUTONOMOUS CARS The Next Netflix? by Bruce Peever
In examining cities across Canada and the U.K., it has become apparent that there is a huge disruption on the doorstep of western cities – autonomous vehicles. While the topic of self-driving cars is gaining momentum in popular media, for most people it is background noise. It can be argued, however, that Autonomous Connected Electric and Shared (ACES) vehicles, a key concept in the autonomous vehicle industry, are much more real and imminent in our lives than most of us acknowledge.
Changes in Social Behaviours When I was studying at Queen’s University in 1996, we had a professor present on the future of the video rental store industry. He told us to get all our money out of the industry
because it was a dying business model. We scoffed, of course; after all, there was this new technology called DVDs and going to a Blockbuster video store on Friday night to scan the racks and racks of videos was part of our family ritual. Online streaming was just fantasy … but, a year later, Netflix Inc. was founded. Starting out in the DVD-bymail business, Netflix had expanded into streaming video service by 2007. Today, Netflix’s revenues are $8.3 billion. Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy in 2010. The Friday night family ritual is now arguing over the online Netflix catalogue. Over the course of 15 years, our social behaviours were entirely reset. For autonomous vehicles, it is now 1997. And, like online stream-
ing, we are struggling to accept selfdriving cars as a plausible option. While cartoons with self-driving cars driving off cliffs are prevalent online, ACES are entirely real and advancing in sophistication every year.
Autonomous An autonomous car is a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environBRUCE PEEVER, MA, MBA, CMC is a Director in KPMG’s Public Sector Advisory practice. He works with cities, universities, and provincial governments across Canada helping them grow and surmount their unique challenges. He is also a former municipal executive with over 17 years of experience with a number of different sized Canadian municipalities. He can be reached at <bpeever@kpmg.ca> or 905-523-2224.
June 2017
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Deep Learning systems are “trained” by repeatedly seeing more and more input data, and gradually optimizing the system’s ability to make an accurate prediction. ment and navigating without human input, relying instead on the processing power of its chips. The fact that we have reached this point in processing power is because of something called Moore’s Law. In 1965, Gordon Moore, working then as the director of research and development at Fairchild Semiconductor, theorized that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit would double every two years. He extrapolated that computing would dramatically increase in power and decrease in relative cost at an exponential rate. Fast forward to the next century, the doubling of processing power has allowed Apple to create incredibly powerful phones relative to their work stations in only 10 years. But, this exponential increase in processing power has also allowed us to do something that we previously thought was science fiction – predictive analytics, or deep learning. In the sports world, we call this Money Ball – where the future performance of athletes is predicted according to their statistical performance data. In the world of autonomous vehicles, we call it Deep Learning, and it has asserted itself as a critical technology for the industry, accelerating the speed of innovation. Think of your commute this morning and what was involved. In a 45-minute commute, you saw 235 road signs (25 of which you obeyed), three bicycles, 1,501 cars, four police cars, and 16 people texting and driving. Imagine if you had to write this commute experience into a computer program for a car to deliver you to work autonomously. How many billions of lines of code would be involved to make your morning commute successful? 8
MWDIGEST
June 2017
Interestingly, the software in the latest Mercedes S Class has 15 times more lines of code than the software in a Boeing 787; and that still isn’t enough code. What happens if someone breaks the law and runs the red light in front of you? What if a bicycle comes speeding past you in the wrong direction? How many more millions of coded actions and permutations are necessary to get you to work? The answer is that, instead of humans programming all the logarithmic calculations, a machine builds on the data of its own experience. It is as if it was learning on its own. This is what is termed as Deep Learning, and is described as: I see, I think, I drive, I learn.1 Deep Learning systems are “trained” by repeatedly seeing more and more input data, and gradually optimizing the system’s ability to make an accurate prediction. As the “wrongness” of the system’s predictions is minimized, it becomes smarter and smarter until it can make highly accurate predictions. In this way, the system learns to recognize patterns in masses of unstructured raw digital data. The result: a system that can handle unexpected situations and quickly suggest the best possible solution.
Connected But, Deep Learning cars don’t work in isolation. They need to be connected. In 1999, Neil Gross, a new sociology professor at UBC, wrote an article for Business Week and forecast that: “In the next century, planet earth will don an electronic skin. It will use the internet as a scaffold to support and transmit its sensations.” This is what we now call the Internet of Things or IoT. The IoT involves
billions of wirelessly interconnected devices communicating directly with one another. People, objects, animals, and even plants are given a unique identifier to transmit data over a network either human to human or human to computer without requiring human interaction. It is expected that by 2020, the number of connected devices will exceed 50 billion – and this is just starting to include cars. The connectivity of autonomous vehicles through the IoT involves principally four different sources: V2P – vehicle to pedestrian – to inform cars of pedestrians on a walkway; cars would communicate with pedestrian smartphones. V2N – vehicle to network – to inform cars of traffic issues or disruptions – this is now so much a part of our car’s operations that we wonder how we operated without it. V2I – vehicle to infrastructure – to sync the operation of the car to traffic infrastructure. This is just starting to emerge; Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and the State of Virginia have all started to develop infrastructure to sync traffic infrastructure to vehicles. V2V – vehicle to vehicle – to allow cars to work together on a highway. Ultimately, it is connectivity that is the key to success for autonomous vehicles.
Electric But, what about the drive train? How do autonomous vehicles relate to electric cars? The Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and the on1 See the report “I see. I think. I drive. (I learn) - How Deep Learning is revolutionizing the way we interact with our cars,” KPMG, March 2016.
going warming of our environment, are going to shape market demand for electric cars. Consumer taste over the next five to 10 years will demand not only autonomous functionality, but also an electric component to a car. Driving a fossil fuel car will increasingly be seen as a negative social behaviour. People will demand either pure electric or hybrid capability in their vehicles. This viewpoint is reflected in the results of KPMG’s 2017 Global Automotive Executive Survey. Respondents report that electrified drivetrains will account for 30 percent of global automotive production by 2023.
Shared Finally, we have shared vehicles. Why is the concept of car sharing so important to ACES? The reason is that the prohibitive cost of autonomous vehicles at the outset will mean that ACES are likely to be shared. That’s why companies such as Uber and Lyft have invested so heavily in autonomous vehicle technology. These companies will provide fleets of autonomous vehicles to the general population using a shared economy business model. Uber and Lyft are already in the transportation business and ACES are just a natural extension of their current business model – except that, with ACES, they will remove a substantial expense from their business model. Companies won’t have to pay a human driver, which accounts for most of their operational costs. They also see it as way to reduce the operational risk in their business model. Humans are an unpredictable operator prone to distractions and high-risk behaviours. For example, as a result of the legalization of recreational marijuana in Colorado, the City of Denver recently was unable to find enough qualified bus drivers who could pass a drug test.
Implementation & Public Infrastructure So, let’s turn our attention to the implementation of autonomous vehicles and their potential impact on
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June 2017
MWDIGEST
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Autonomous vehicle companies that have a technology background (e.g., Google, Apple) are convinced that there is no need for Phase 3 of the ACES adoption timeline. public infrastructure. Within a decade, we will have a new normal: Phase 1 – The Training Wheels stage is already in our rear view mirror. Phase 2 – First Gear is now fully engaged as partial driver substitution capabilities are introduced into various vehicle models. Phase 3 – Acceleration is expected to result in complete autonomous operation features being introduced into vehicles by 2021. Phase 4 – Full Speed is anticipated two decades out from now, when cars will be entirely autonomous and connected with a passive driving experience. Now, there is some divergence of perspective within the autonomous
vehicle industry depending upon the background of the company. Traditional car manufacturers (such as GM, Ford, and Volvo) are investing billions into ACES research. Their view is consistent with the traditional perspective on autonomous vehicles; namely, it will be a four-stage development to full autonomous operation, occurring over two decades. Autonomous vehicle companies that have a technology background (e.g., Google, Apple) are convinced that there is no need for Phase 3 of the ACES adoption timeline. They are working to roll out fully-autotomized vehicles within the next five to seven years and are of the opinion that autonomous vehicles with the ability for
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driver substitution involve too much risk.
Start Planning Now At this point, it is too early to tell which perspective will prevail. However, for the municipal officials who design, build, and operate public infrastructure, autonomous vehicles should be at the forefront of their thinking. Public infrastructure is built on a 30-to 50-year time frame and it is a certainty that autonomous vehicles will have changed our society within this time frame. Public authorities should start planning now to navigate through the issues of autonomous vehicles to ensure that our ACES dominated world is one designed to maximize social and economic benefit. MW
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Presented by Juice Inc.
How you can be an
INTELLIGENCE BOOSTER
Can you boost someone’s intelligence? Or suppress it? Can a person’s smarts actually be variable? I’ve learned the hard way – certain people make me feel really dumb. I remember stuttering and stammering as the border guy smirked and shot out rapid-fire questions. Typically, I can get my point across; but, then I couldn’t string two thoughts together to save my life. There was a lot on the line. I had to be in New York City the following morning to deliver a training session to 35 Deutsche Bank managers. My scattered thinking didn’t impress the surly agent: “You’re not flying anywhere today.” (I ended up having to pull a rabbit out of a hat – delivering a two-day experiential training session via video-conference.)
“Acid Bath” If you’ve experienced a scenario like this, you’re not alone. Medical columnist Dr. Gabor Maté says, “Psychological factors such as uncertainty, conflict, lack of control, and lack of information are considered the most stressful stimuli.” It’s a bit like a splash of acid on our brain, resulting in a predictable physi-
ological reaction: a potent injection of stress hormones (cortisol, adrenaline, and norepinephrine) floods the system, our cortex is constricted, and our capacity for higher-order thinking is shut down. A recent survey by Juice and Municipal World revealed that your colleagues experience this dynamic. Thirty-seven percent of them answered “Yes” to the question, “Are you smarter around some people than you are around others?” That means every third person you deal with today might feel smarter (or not) in your presence – it all depends on how they experience you. The Are You Smarter survey showed that if you’re having a bad day, and people pick up a “border guard” tone from you (they experience you as someone who is rank-imposing, judgmental, or critical), they can lose access to 40 percent of their smarts. In the May issue, we looked at how we lose our smarts – and how we can get them back. This month’s article is for those who said, “No, I’m equally smart around all people.” If that’s you, prepare to learn how you can help your colleagues get back in the game when they lose their smarts.
Juiced Brain If you witness work partners starting to lose their smarts, you can turn the situation around. Essentially, this is a chemistry problem; the brain is flooded with stress chemicals (cortisol, adrenaline, and norepinephrine). Amazingly, there are three types of questions that can change your partner’s brain chemistry in milliseconds. These questions flush out the three stress chemicals and replace them with three brain-friendly chemicals: oxytocin, dopamine, and serotonin. Become skillful with these questions and you can do benevolent brain-hacks – helping co-workers access their intelligence and get back in the game. BRADY WILSON has a vision: organizations that pulsate with innovative energy. As the Founder of Juice Inc., Brady functions as a human energy architect, working with leaders to build the conditions in which innovation, value creation and unforgettable customer experiences can flourish. He helps leaders step into life’s grittiest tensions, inspiring them to create a sustained approach to positive change – and better business results.
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Oxytocin: Connection Juice Activate oxytocin in someone and you reduce the sensation of fear. Rapport is rebooted. As acceptance amps up, and social skills kick back in, people can access what they need to be appropriate in the situation. Dr. Paul Zak’s research shows that oxytocin produces trust, and increases the monetary value of interactions in a work culture. How do you release oxytocin? Acknowledge – When a moment is filled with anxiety and tension, you can reduce the stress-load of the situation by up to 50 percent by acknowledging everyone’s state, “Well this feels awkward, doesn’t it?” A simple acknowledgment like this creates a human moment – oxytocin is activated, people chuckle, and tension dissipates. Ask – “What matters most?” In any situation, there can be two or three things that matter to your work partner; but, there’s only one thing that matters most. It can help to pause and ask: “I’m hearing that meeting our deadline and the impact on the team are both really important to you. Can you tell me which one matters most to you in this situation?” Reflect – When you prove that you understand, you produce a sense of trust. “Okay, I’m hearing that meeting the deadline is a non-negotiable, and we have to do that without wrecking the good work we’ve done with the team.”
be muted. Activating serotonin turns up the signal strength of its two allies, giving Release dopamine in people and they people a super-charged blend of connecbecome insanely creative about achieving tion and creativity. This produces a powgoals. Why? Because dopamine is called erful effect: people feel a sense of confithe seeking drive – it unlocks rewarddence. Their sense of agency is boosted, orientation, motivation, ingenuity, intuition, and they access optimism, belief, and and innovation. self-efficacy – everything they need to How do you release dopamine? muzzle their inner critics. Ask – “What’s possible here?” It’s not How do you release serotonin? reward that releases a flow of dopamine Ask – “How might we?” Every major in the brain (as scientists used to believe); innovation that happens at Ideo, Google, it’s actually the promise of reward. or Netflix always starts with three words: When you re-focus people on the “How might we?” sense of promise, possibility, or potential Here are a couple of questions inin a situation, you release a jolt of dopafused with “how might we” energy. mine. “If you and I knew we couldn’t fail, how Share vision – Be human and share might we approach this?” This nudges the your dreams of what’s possible. Paint a person from their stuck state, expands picture of the preferred future – not a pipe their thinking, and releases belief and dream, but a picture of the opportunity as agency. you see it. “You’ve faced situations like this in Tell “modulated” stories – Most peothe past, how might we use what you’ve ple try to motivate others with one kind of learned here?” When you focus people on story: the good to great story. While some past wins and what made them work, you people are motivated by achievement, pull confidence forward into their current others light up with meaning, belonging, reality. autonomy, or security. So, modulate your story because a good to great story can Which Type of Person Will You Be? be turned into “belonging on a fantastic You can be the type of person who team” or “how we made life easier for our boosts people’s intelligence. While they clients.” Expand your repertoire. think of some colleagues as border guards who shut down their intelligence, Serotonin: Confidence Juice they think of you and wonder, “Why am Without serotonin, the effect of doI smarter around that person than I am pamine and oxytocin in our brains would around others?”
Dopamine: Creativity Juice
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MWDIGEST
June 2017
by Clark Somerville
BUDGET 2017
Canada’s future unfolding in our municipalities
2017 is Canada’s big year. All across the country, Canadians are marking the 150th anniversary of Confederation with festivals, fairs, and fireworks – all culminating next month with the biggest party this country has ever seen. From Hamilton to Hay River, communities are celebrating who we are, and where we come from. But, there’s something else remarkable going on in our communities, something that’s transforming the places we call home. While celebrating our past, local governments have also begun to shape Canada’s future. As FCM President, I’ve been fortunate to travel to every corner of this country. What I’ve seen is that some of the most dynamic and impressive leaders in Canada today are municipal leaders. In our ever-changing world, municipal leaders are innovating and adapting to meet the needs of Canadians, often with limited fiscal capacity. That’s good news for Canadians, because it’s in our cities and communities where the 21st century will unfold.
Municipal Leadership In fact, it’s already unfolding in places like Saint-Hyacinthe, Quebec, where local officials have taken the lead on a remarkable project that’s turning organic waste into natural gas – one of the first of its kind in North America. And, in the Region of Waterloo, where a downtown revitalization project is attracting tenants like Google and spurring economic growth with good-paying, high-tech jobs. And in cities like Winnipeg and Vancouver, which are leading the way in implementing the final report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. From coast-to-coast-to-coast, municipal leaders are delivering local solutions to big, national challenges. The federal government has taken notice and, as a result, there’s a fundamental shift happening right now. In big cities and in small towns, Ottawa is turning to municipal leaders like never before. We’ve become indispensable
partners in building tomorrow’s Canada. It just isn’t possible to build a better country without the order of government closest to Canadians, so local governments are taking their rightful place at the nation-building table.
Budget 2017 There’s no better example of this than Federal Budget 2017, tabled in March. This was the culmination of 18 months of unprecedented dialogue between FCM and the federal government. We met regularly with senior officials, cabinet ministers, and the Prime Minister himself. We talked about local leaders as nation builders, and as capable managers who can deliver cost-effective results. And, we asked them to work CLARK SOMERVILLE is President of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities – Canada’s national voice for local governments. He is also a town and regional councillor in the Town of Halton Hills and Halton Region, Ontario.
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Budget 2017 was a watershed moment for the municipal sector, to be sure. It wasn’t the only time the federal government has partnered with municipal leaders for their expertise. with us to build the next generation of livable, competitive communities as the foundation of a better Canada. That’s exactly what happened. Budget 2017 is a game-changer for the municipal sector – and for Canadians. It empowers local governments to deliver the outcomes Canadians want: economic growth, shorter commutes, more affordable housing, and action on climate change. The budget includes longterm, allocation-based investment in the next generation of public transit expansions. It responds to FCM’s urgent call for a significant federal re-engagement in protecting and expanding social and affordable housing. It opens the door for new green infrastructure investment in local projects focused on climate change mitigation and adaptation. And, it confirms an unprecedented plan to invest in the infrastructure priorities of rural, remote, and northern communities. What matters about Budget 2017 isn’t only the investments, either, it’s how the federal government is investing. The budget recognizes that cities and communities are this country’s social and economic engines, and it puts more tools in the hands of municipal leaders. Empowering the order of government closest to Canadians enables the sort of growth that will improve the country’s fiscal position for years to
come. It means that, together, we can build more thriving, livable communities – and a better Canada. Budget 2017 was a watershed moment for the municipal sector, to be sure. It wasn’t the only time the federal government has partnered with municipal leaders for their expertise. We saw this in last year’s budget as well, which took FCM’s advice and announced historic commitments to infrastructure. And, we saw it in last November’s fall economic update, which first committed $2 billion to a dedicated fund for rural, remote, and northern infrastructure. In February, I was in Ottawa with Infrastructure and Communities Minister Amarjeet Sohi to launch a pair of new programs entrusted to FCM, the Municipal Asset Management Program and the Municipalities for Climate Innovation Program. Previous governments of all political stripes have partnered with FCM as well in securing the federal Gas Tax Fund (permanent, and indexed to inflation), for example, as well as the 100 percent GST rebate for municipalities (which continues to provide important revenues for stretched municipal budgets). This growing collaboration is what Canadians expect of their governments. If we’re going to deliver the outcomes Canadians deserve, all orders of government will have to continue working together. That includes ensuring provincial governments step
up with full-cost sharing, so that public transit expansions aren’t stopped in their tracks by local fiscal limits. Municipal leaders will continue to be an active partner in tackling 21st-century national challenges, from economic growth to climate change. After all, municipalities own and operate 60 percent of this country’s infrastructure and influence half of Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions. We understand local needs. Local governments understand what’s at stake for the young parents in Toronto who struggle to find a home they can afford. Or for the entrepreneur in Watson Lake who needs high-speed internet to get her goods to market. When municipal leadership and expertise help drive solutions, it’s Canadians who benefit. I wrap up my year as FCM president at our Annual Conference this month in Ottawa. I leave with incredible optimism over the state of the municipal sector. Thanks to the gains we’ve made as a strong and united sector, local leaders have a strengthened place at the nation-building table – and a real opportunity to shape the future of this country. Now, more than ever, it’s clear that the road to a better Canada runs through our cities and communities. So, as we celebrate Canada’s first 150 years, I’m more confident than ever that the next 150 years belong to our municipalities. MW
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MWDIGEST
APPRAISERS June 2017
COLLECTORS
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by Bernard Fleet
est g i D sive lu Exc ture Fea How to overcome traffic gridlock is one of the biggest challenges facing modern city and transport planners. Presently, half of the global population live in cities and this is predicted to increase to almost 80 percent by 2050. At the same time, the number of vehicles is expected to rise fourfold, from one to four billion. The problem was highlighted by Ford Motor chairman Bill Ford in a recent address to the World Mobility Congress in Barcelona. Describing the company’s “Blueprint for Mobility,” Ford warned about the change in the transport landscape especially the dangers of global gridlock. In several cities, including Sao Paolo, traffic jams regularly exceed 100 miles, and the average commute lasts between two and three hours a day; while in Beijing, in 2010, the world’s longest period of gridlock was recorded at 11 days. Ford urged carmakers to work with governments and industries such as telecommunications to find solutions to urban congestion, and warned that failure to do so could risk many of their products becoming obsolete. There is ample evidence on the effects of traffic gridlock on economic and public healthcare – in addition to the major contribution to climate change via increasing GHG emissions. Automakers are aware that vehicle ownership and usage are affected by population density and, as cities become more densely populated, the appeal of owning a car is threatened because of the parking shortage, congestion, and viable alternatives such as public transport, along with the rapid growth in cycling.
MICROCARS
A cure for gridlock?
Microcars – from the BMW Isetta (1950) to the Swatch Car (1990).
This problem, although it is most severe in the near mega-cities of the developing world, is also impacting the industrialized world. Anyone who has observed the traffic crawling into Toronto – each a single one-ton steel vehicle with a single occupant – knows this is hardly a model of sustainability. In the UK, it is estimated that, by 2025, the cost of congestion to the economy through lost time alone will reach $35 billion. Fortunately, there are some possible solutions already in the works. There are various policy initiatives, such as increasing taxes on personal vehicles (most common in Scandinavia and European countries); or charging drivers a road tax (such as tolls to enter central London and Singapore, which has long employed a congestion charge to enter the central business district and whose long-term goal is to charge car drivers for every kilometre of road on which they drive). At the same time, the auto industry is clearly aware of the problem and is taking steps in planning its future product offer-
ings. This article examines two of these solutions: Microcars and autonomous (self-drive) vehicles.
Microcars Microcars, as the name suggests are small (smaller than sub-compact) and either single or two-seat vehicles. The development of this class of vehicle dates back to the end of the Second World War, when some of the German aircraft companies, excluded from building aircraft, turned to manufacturing small, low-cost automobiles. DR. BERNARD FLEET is an environmental engineer who has worked extensively in electric vehicles and the economics of sustainable transportation. He is also an Adjunct Professor at Ryerson University, Department of Environmental Applied Science and Management, where he teaches a graduate course on “Our Energy Future; Climate Change and the Transition to the Low-Carbon Economy.” He can be reached at <fleetec@gmail.com>.
This article was originally published in the January 2014 issue of Municipal World. June 2017
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The market for microcars is now heating up. Two new models include the all-electric Renault Twizy and the Toyota i-Road, which is still a concept vehicle.
Those of us who are old enough may remember these early models, such as the Messerschmitt KR200, the Heinkel Kabine, and the BMW Isetta. More recently, the success of vehicles such as the Mini and the Smart Car has caused automakers to think that there may even be a market for smaller vehicles (sometimes known as neighbourhood vehicles), typically low-speed, and restricted in use to city roads and not highways. Leading market research firm Frost and Sullivan reported that most of the top 10 automakers have plans to introduce microcars to the market and that some 60 new models will be launched into the European market by 2014. They also note that many, if not the majority, of these new vehicles will be either hybrid or pure battery-powered. In discussing microcars, it is worth paying tribute to Nicolas Hayek, chairman of the Swatch group who invented the Swatch car. As originally conceived by Hayek, the Swatch was a gasolineelectric hybrid; but, after the merger with Mercedes, the design was changed to gasoline power. It is interesting to note that the vision has now come full circle to Hayek’s original concept with the launch of the all-electric E-Smart and the Smart Forvision.
Autonomous Vehicles The next great leap in the history of the automobile industry may well be the introduction of autonomous or selfdriving vehicles (ARVs). Long a staple 16
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of science fiction, real-world demonstration of the technology dates back to the 1939 New York World Fair, with General Motors showing their Futurama exhibit wherein vehicles interacted with the highway. Interest in ARVs was given a huge boost in October 2010 when Google announced that it had built an autonomous vehicle. Their test vehicles were reported to have been safely driven over 700,000 kilometres of U.S. roads. The sophisticated navigation and control system was able to process almost one gigabyte of data every second. In one highly publicized demonstration, Google posted a video of a legally blind passenger being picked up in its ARV, being driven to a drive-through pizza restaurant, and then safely transported back home! There are clear signs on how the industry will evolve. First, there are ARVs that will be operated in restricted zones in eco-cities such as Masdar, Abu Dhabi, or Dongtan, China; or in airports, like the award-winning Personal Rapid Transit at London Heathrow Airport Terminal 5. The next stage, which is already well underway, is to deploy ARVs on public roads with a rapid transition from manual to partial automation to fully autonomous operation. In fact, many modern vehicles are already partially automated and some of the key elements of the ARV concept have been around for some time. Several companies (Volvo, Mercedes, and
Lexus) all have “driver-alert” systems that can detect when a driver is getting sleepy; and automatic parking is now an option on many production vehicles, along with alarm features such as blind-spot detection. In one sense, ARVs represent the transition from large, spacious, powerful, long-range vehicles to compact, lightweight, electric-powered, pollution-free transport designed to meet the needs of emerging megacities. While the technology and market potential of ARVs would seem to have been convincingly demonstrated, the industry still faces some major barriers. Foremost is the fact that ARVs have largely been ignored by transport infrastructure planners such as the OECD and the World/Asian Development Banks. However, there is a strong probability that ARVs may well become a major feature of road traffic during the next few decades, since they fit neatly into the criteria for transport infrastructure in emerging megaprojects. ARVs open up opportunities for innovative design with the ability to replace traditional components such as the mechanical steering mechanism, combustion engine, transmission, and hydraulics. The inherent safety factors will also reduce the need for vehicles to meet the most stringent crash safety tests. Ultimately, their low cost – derived from simple design and construction – may allow them to replace a large portion of private passenger and public transport vehicles.
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the best prospects. While the electric car industry has been rather slow to take off, this may well change when consumers begin to realize the enormous cost savings achieved by electric cars over gasoline vehicles. The most promising solution for an electric vehicle power source would seem to be lithium batteries, which have now evolved from the cells used to power laptops and cell phones, to large megawatt-size batteries for storing energy from renewable power systems such as wind or solar and feeding the electricity grid. The electric vehicle industry is also coming up with some very innovative ideas, while others are reviving ideas that are over 100-years old. Electric trolleybuses that picked up their power from underground cables were more populated with autonomous vehiin use in London in the early 1900s. Autonomous Taxicabs cles, traffic could be better managed with The latest designs of electric buses It is a seamless transition from ARVs fewer stops, speed changes, and resulting use inductive charging from buried to Autonomous Taxicabs (ATs) that could shorter trips. cables under the road that are used to easily provide some of the most imporThe cost of ATs could also be signifirecharge the battery on an electric bus tant benefits of the technology. Having cantly lower than conventional taxis since while it is stopped at a station. already been demonstrated by Google, the cost of the driver, which accounts for In summary, gridlock is clearly a a typical customer could order an AT roughly two-thirds of a cab fare, would problem that will not go away simply by with a Smartphone indicating pick-up be eliminated. For fleet operators, ARV/ building more roads – build them and and set down points, amount of lugATs with their lightweight body shells and more cars will appear to fill them. The sogage and willingness to share or require simple drive train would offer substantial lution requires a radical rethink of how we a private journey. After completing the reductions in both capital and mainteapproach the issue of personal mobility. assignment, the AT would return to base nance costs. Microcars and autonomous vehicles may or continue to its next passenger. Either well be part of the solution. MW way, the AT approach would eliminate The Future is Electric the need for parking. ATs might well In order to meet the threat of global offer a superior service to existing taxi The author would first like to thank his friend warming, it is essential to reduce our cabs, since their interior space could and colleague Dr. Richard Gilbert, a leading dependence on fossil fuels. That means authority on urban planning and transportabe matched to the customer – rather leaving coal in the ground and weantion, for the many fruitful discussions. It is also than to the driver’s needs. Additional a pleasure to acknowledge the inspiration of ing the auto industry off its dependence customer-friendly services could include Nicolas Hayek, the creator of the Swatch Car, on oil. While there are many business the forerunner of the Smart Car. This article communication and news/entertainment models and strategies for improving was based in part on a lecture delivered at features. The quality of the ride could EVS27, the 27th International Electric Vehicle personal transportation, personal mobilalso be superior, since as roads become Symposium in Barcelona, November 2013. ity electric vehicles would seem to offer
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