Global

Coal seen to remain key part of global electricity generation mix

Forecasts that demand for coal will continue to represent a significant part of the global electricity generation mix signal the need to reconcile what is real and what is ideal, according to the World Coal Association (WCA).WCA was reacting to a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) that the use of coal for power generation would be stable, at least in the next five years, despite calls by environmentalists for governments and corporations to ditch the fossil fuel and go for renewable energy sources instead.

ecutive Michelle Manook said in a statement.

Forecasts that demand for coal will continue to represent a significant part of the global electricity generation mix signal the need to reconcile what is real and what is ideal, according to the World Coal Association (WCA).

Coal demand projections are “a reminder that coal and coal use is a reality,” WCA chief executive Michelle Manook said in a statement.

“It’s time for a sensible discussion and collaboration to bridge the gap between the real and ideological worlds,” Manook said and expressed concern about anti-coal groups perpetuating the idea that coal cannot be part of the low-carbon solution.

In the United States, coal, that supervillain of fossil-fuels, is in a death spiral. But on a global scale, there’s no spiral, just an arrow pointing to Asia. Turns out coal is not dying; it’s moving.

A report from the International Energy Association reveals the extent to which coal has provided the power for Asian countries like Indonesia and Vietnam as their economic growth pulls millions out of poverty. The world burns 65 percent more coal today than it did in 2000, according to the IEA’s new report. Coal accounts for 40 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions.

The report shows that natural gas and renewables are killing so many coal plants in the United States and Europe that worldwide coal consumption should be falling … if it weren’t for China and India. There, as well as in smaller Asian countries, coal use is rising fast enough to erase the effect of closures elsewhere.

That drove up pollution of carbon and the particulates that have famously choked cities like Delhi and Jakarta. It also fueled economic growth, lifting people out of poverty and helping countries prepare for the disasters made worse by climate change.

For instance, despite an increase in cyclones, Bangladesh has dramatically reduced cyclonerelated deaths by building shelters, fostering the growth of coastal forests, and developing systems for evacuation and cleanup. Just as Europe and the United States relied on coal to turn on electric lights in the late 19th Century, countries like China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the Philippines are now doing the same.

China’s coking coal imports rise

China’s imports of coking coal saw steady growth in November 2019, according to data from General Administration of Customs.

Customs data showed that in November 2019, Chinese imports of coking coal increased 16% y/y to 6.18 million t. The import turnover reached US$7.89 million, decreasing 3.9% y/y. From January to November, a total of 72.8 million t of coking coal was imported, up 17% from the previous year, according to the GAC.The main use of coking coal is to refine coke, material for making steel.

China must cancel new coal plants to achieve climate goals: study

China must end the construction of all new coalfired power plants in order to meet long-term climate goals in the most economically feasible manner, according to a study co-authored by a government-backed research institute. China’s energy strategy over the next decade is under close scrutiny as it aims to bring climate warming carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 and fulfill a pledge made as part of the 2015 Paris agreement.

Beijing is capable of phasing out coal to help meet a global target to keep temperature rises to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, but only if it embarks on a “structured and sustainable” closure strategy to minimize the economic impact, according to the study.

The report, which evaluated more than 1,000 existing coal-fired power plants, said China must first end new construction and then rapidly close older and inefficient plants. As much as 112 gigawatts (GW) does not meet environmental standards and could be shut down immediately, it said.

China currently has over 1,000 GW of coal-fired power, accounting for about 60% of the country’s total installed generation capacity..

US power generators set for another big year in coal plant closures in 2020

U.S. coal consumption is likely to decline sharply again in 2020, though the current roster of planned and completed coal plant retirements suggests the year may not be quite as rough as the past two. At 13,703 MW, 2019 marks the highest level of annual coal capacity retirements

in the U.S. since 2015, a new S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis of federal data shows. The amount of coal capacity planned for retirement in 2020 is expected to exceed the amount retired in each of 2014, 2016 and 2017. Another retirement has already been announced.

Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association Inc. said Jan. 9 that it was closing its 247-MW Escalante power plant in New Mexico by the end of 2020. Since 2014, U.S. power generators retired nearly 62,000 MW of coal-fired generation capacity, with another 26,947 MW of retirements teed up through 2025.

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC forecast in a December 2019 report that about 70,000 MW to as much as 190,000 MW of coal-fired generation is "economically at risk" from the deployment of a "second wave of renewables" in the U.S. The research firm said these projections exclude about 24,000 MW of coal generation already set to shut down. U.S. domestic coal consumption for power is estimated to fall another 5% in 2020, said Matt Preston, Wood Mackenzie's research director of North America coal markets. Coal plant operators in the PJM Interconnection have retired more than 18,800 MW of coal capacity since 2014 with more than 3,100 MW of shuttered coal plants on the horizon.

In US Renewables primed to pass coal power

For American coal, 2019 was bad, 2020 will be worse, and in 2021, renewables will surpass coal in electricity generation for the first time ever, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA's latest short-term energy outlook yesterday showcased U.S. coal companies' dire predicament: Coal-fired power plants keep closing, and exports will no longer help fill the void.

Trends in the coal industry have defied President Trump's promises and his administration's regulatory attempts to save the industry. More than 90% of U.S. coal continues to go to electricity generation. But by 2021, coal consumption will have dropped by one-quarter. Coal will be used to generate just 21% of American electricity — half what it was a decade ago. By 2021, renewables will surpass coal and produce 24% of U.S. electricity.

Exports helped coal companies make up for lost power plants in past years, but no longer, according to EIA. Exports fell 20% in 2019 and are expected to drop again in 2020. In 2019, 36% of U.S. coal exports went to Germany, Portugal and other nations in the European Union taking concerted steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions.Despite that, Aldina said U.S. coal companies will continue to ship coal to growing markets in Asia. In 2019, India became the largest single importer of U.S. coal.

EIA expects exports to stabilize around 83 million tons in 2021.

BHP eyes India for coal growth as China demand flatlines

Australia's largest miner, BHP, believes the longterm trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking output could help offset the flattening demand from China feared in the 2020s.

China's immense appetite for the steelmaking commodities iron ore and coal – Australia's two top exports – helped deliver a windfall to the leading miners in 2019 as well as a timely boost to the Morrison government's federal budget. But the latest industry and government modelling projects Chinese demand to ease in the face of lower margins, a weakening in global growth and the continuing US-China trade war.

Australian exporters of metallurgical coal – the coal used to make steel – are increasingly looking to the rapid growth of India's steel sector to help to fill the looming demand gap and cushion the blow.

In its December resources report, the federal government said India was expected to become the "key source" of import growth for metallurgical coal, "offsetting a gradual easing in demand from China".

over the 2020s. With yearly output of more than 100 million tonnes of steel, India recently surpassed Japan to become the world's secondbiggest steelmaking country.

India's government is forecasting its metallurgical coal demand to more than double in 10 years as the country plans to increase its crude steel production to 300 million tonnes by 2030.

Indonesia to curb coal output to protect price

The authorities in Jakarta have set a production target at 550 million tonnes for 2020, 9.8 per cent lower than the 610 million tonnes produced last year.

Energy minister Arifin Tasrif said domestic consumption of the dirtiest fossil fuel rose by 12 per cent to 155 million tonnes. The minister insisted that producers must stick to the limits as the government “doesn’t want coal production to be too massive and drive prices lower and cause government revenue to drop. We will implement the domestic market obligation as well.” Coal firms are required to sell 25 per cent of their output domestically at a fixed price,” he said.

The Indonesian government said it was motivated by financial concerns rather than any obligation to cut carbon emissions.

Vietnam and regional neighbors push for low-grade coal

Demand for low-grade coal with lower combustion efficiency is growing amid economic growth in Vietnam and other emerging Asian countries, placing another hurdle in the global race to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

While prices of high-grade coal with higher power generation efficiency have fallen by more than 30% over the past year as developed countries have been reducing coal consumption, prices of low-grade coal have fallen more slowly. The price difference between the two categories of coal has shrunk to one-third the level of a year ago. Of thermal coal produced in Australia, which serves as a benchmark of thermal coal prices in Asia, high-grade coal with a calorific value of 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram is currently traded at about $65 per ton, down 34% from December of last year.The price decline reflects slowing demand for coal for use in power generation.

Meanwhile, prices of low-grade coal with lower calorific value, at 5,500 kcal per kg, stay at around $50 per ton, down about 15% over the past year. Cheaper low-grade coal is imported mainly by emerging countries, such as China and Vietnam. The price drop for low-grade coal has been smaller than for high-grade coal, although the coal market is weak overall amid fears of a slowdown in the global economy and falling prices of alternative fuels.

The supply of low-grade coal is not increasing in line with demand, because coal prices that have remained low for a long time have adversely impacted mining companies' earnings. The change in supply-demand balance for highgrade coal and low-grade coal will highlight the difference in attitude toward coal between developed countries and emerging countries.

Ukraine produced over 31 mln tonnes of coal in 2019

The Coal Miners Union of Ukraine reported this on January 8 with a reference to the data provided by the Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection.

"In 2019, coal mining enterprises of Ukraine of all forms of ownership produced 31,212,753 tonnes of coal, which is 1,881,347 tonnes less than planned,” reads the report.

In particular, the mines subordinated to the Ministry of Energy and Environmental Protection produced 3,565,336 tonnes of coal, which is 871,664 tonnes less than the target plan.

As reported, Ukraine produced 33.29 million tonnes of coal in 2018, which was 286,900 tonnes (0.9%) more than in the previous year.