From the Editor’s Desk

The overall global coal scenario has experienced a shift in dynamics leading to alteration of the coal market and prices. The outlook of the coal import market appears to be positive with a considerable growth expected from 2023 onwards. Prospects of coal prices are likely to be mixed in 2023, with seaborne coal value remaining relatively low. As per IEA, global coal demand will be primarily driven by China and India’s economic growth. In 2022, global coal consumption levels rose to a substantial high, led by India and China, while increased exports from countries such as South Africa and Colombia partially offset the reduction of Russian exports to Europe. Europe also saw an interesting turn of events in the coal market with the demand for South African coal declining, followed by a surge in demand last year in the wake of an EU-wide ban on Russian coal imports. However, Germany saw a substantial increase in coal imports in 2023 as compared to last year. Imports also rose in Poland by more than 50 % Y-o-Y in 2022, although, the second and third quarters of 2023 look a little slow paced for the country in terms of coal imports.

Russia meanwhile hiked coal exports to Asia by 85% in the first two months of the year. The Australian and South African benchmark prices dropped from their peaks in April and September 2022, respectively. The gap between the two benchmarks has almost disappeared, due to supply disruptions in Australia.

Asia witnessed thermal coal imports in China in the opening quarter of 2023 soaring to new highs as utilities and businesses restocked in anticipation of greater energy use. China’s total thermal coal imports through March shot up to around 81% from the same period a year ago. Low prices and growing energy demand boosted imports of seaborne thermal coal among most of Asia’s major buyers using the fuel to generate power. The world’s two major coal producers, China and India, led the way with their imports peaking. Meanwhile, Indonesia posted exponential growth in coal exports in 2023 since January 2018, according to data.

Experts have anticipated that coal consumption will likely hit a record high and remain stable until 2025 when the transition to clean fuel alternatives gathers momentum.

While future scenarios for global coal imports cannot be accurately predicted, it is clear that the world is moving towards more sustainable and renewable energy sources, which may largely impact the future of the coal trade.

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