JUNE 2015
2015 MIDDLE EAST HOTEL SURVEY
PEAK ASSESSMENTS Cristina Zegrea Senior Manager Hala Matar Choufany, MRICS Managing Partner
HVS.com
HVS | Liberty House Building, DIFC, 7th Floor, Office 715, Dubai, UAE
Introduction Tourism and travel in the Middle East region exhibited solid growth in 2014. Since the start of the new millennium, key parameters of the sector registered positive compound annual growth ranging between 0.2% and 5.0% while year-on-year, the Middle East region recorded growth ranging between 3.0% and 8.0%. Furthermore, according to the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the Middle East region recorded roughly 4.0% growth in tourism arrivals bringing the total to 50 million. A glimpse at the region inspires the question; are cities realizing peak performance in the travel and tourism industry, or do these cities still require a stretch in order to return to their former levels? The Middle East performed FIGURE 1: MIDDLE EAST TRAVEL & TOURISM CONTRIBUTION TO GDP particularly well in 2014 with the % US$ bn total contribution of travel & 250.0 25 tourism to gross domestic product 20 200.0 15 (GDP) recording a 5.3% increase 10 compared to the levels reported 150.0 5 towards the end of 2013. This 0 100.0 -5 outstrips total GDP growth of -10 50.0 between 2.5% and 3.0% as reported -15 by the International Monetary Fund 0.0 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (IMF) and the World Bank. The Direct Contribution to GDP Total Contribution to GDP stagnation of the economy and the Growth in Direct Contribution to GDP Growth in Total Contribution to GDP Source: WTTC weaker growth when compared to initial forecasts is attributed largely to localized crises reducing overall growth. These localized crises include Syria as well as areas affected by the militant group IS. Heavy pressure on the oil industry as a result of falling oil prices further adversely impacted regional GDP. Notwithstanding, the growth in travel & tourism’s contribution to GDP exceeded that of GDP growth itself in percentage terms, in spite of the adverse effects of the sanctions in Russia and European currency fluctuations. In 2014 the Middle East region recorded roughly 4.0% growth in tourism arrivals bringing the total to 50 million. Regional airline capacities rose by an impressive 11.9%, load factors climbed to 78.1%, while overall passenger traffic growth in the Middle East was roughly 13.0%.
The contribution to GDP is fuelled by domestic, leisure tourism and business tourism spending. Domestic spending remains relatively stable at roughly onethird of total spend, with business tourism spending equally stable at roughly 12.0% of total spend. The major share of annual travel & tourism spend is attributed to leisure tourism, constituting more than 50.0% of annual spend with year-on-year growth across all three segments between roughly 6.5% and 7.0%.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Middle East carriers reported the strongest annual passenger traffic growth compared to other regions. While regional airline capacities rose by an impressive 11.9%, load factors climbed to 78.1%, and overall passenger traffic growth in the Middle East region was roughly 13.0%. In aggregate, the Middle East exhibited positive results, however, we look more closely into key cities within the region in order to determine where, if somewhere, pockets of negative growth exist. In order to accomplish the evaluation of peak performance, the assessment applies to destinations with track records in excess of ten years, and examines revenue per available room (RevPAR) as the key variable.
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Key Considerations Europe reinforced its position as the most visited region globally in 2014, with more than half of the world’s international tourists visiting the continent. The Americas, on the other hand, was the best performing region in relative terms with growth of 7.4%, welcoming a total of 181 million international tourists. In the meantime, international tourism in the Middle East showed signs of rebound with attractive results in most destinations. Unfortunately, the UNTWO provides conflicting data, indicating in January 2014 that Middle East tourist arrivals were reportedly 52 million. As a result, the 2013 data has been revised in order to reflect the most recent data provided, as of January, 2015. FIGURE 2: WORLDWIDE TOURIST ARRIVALS (000S)
World Africa Americas Asia Pacific Europe Middle East
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814,047 36,374 132,165 151,212 450,831 43,465
851,321 39,626 134,685 162,779 468,991 45,240
901,366 42,635 140,694 179,788 488,000 50,249
921,355 44,763 146,326 185,297 489,186 55,783
879,885 46,998 139,008 181,608 459,830 52,441
938,518 50,002 149,710 204,509 474,539 59,758
2011
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2014
980,000 1,035,000 1,084,000 1,138,000 50,000 52,000 56,000 56,000 156,000 162,000 169,000 181,000 216,000 233,000 248,000 263,000 503,000 535,000 563,000 588,000 55,000 53,000 48,000 50,000
% Change 2013-14 % of Total 5.2% 0.0% 7.4% 6.4% 4.7% 3.8%
100% 5% 16% 23% 52% 4%
Source: UNWTO
In the meantime, the 2015 Middle East Hotel Survey draws from a databank of 546 internationally branded hotels, representing more than 144,000 rooms in the region, effectively an increase of 17% and 15%, respectively, over the participating hotels during the 2014 Middle East Hotel Survey. Drawing upon resources in the hotel industry, the survey covers a total of 42 cities in 13 countries, and spans over a history of 21 years. The regional market leader in terms of RevPAR, factoring into consideration sample size, is once again awarded to Jeddah, with a RevPAR of US$189.04.
Abu Dhabi The capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been on the upswing in terms of visitation, driving occupancy, which exhibited 1.6% growth in spite of the roughly 7.0% - 8.0% increase in hotel supply. As a result of increased inventory, average rates exhibited a suppressive 4.3% decline, thereby posting an overall moderate decrease in RevPAR. According to the Abu Dhabi Tourism and According to the Abu Culture Authority (TCA), guest arrivals in 2014 totaled 3,494,063, exhibiting a Dhabi Tourism and year-on-year double-digit increase of 25.0%, with total room nights climbing to Culture Authority (TCA), 10,463,137. This performance was realized as a result of the improved guest arrivals in 2014 positioning of Abu Dhabi’s tourism product, with more diverse products and an totaled 3,494,063, expanding regional and global marketing campaign. The TCA is now focusing exhibiting a year-on-year efforts on improving the average length of stay and the evident contraction in double-digit increase of average rate. 25.0%, with total room nights climbing to With total room revenue increasing by 15.0% to AED3.3 billion, domestic tourism to the emirate remains the primary source market, accounting for 10,463,137. nearly one-third of total arrivals. With overall GCC visitation increasing by 25% and Chinese visitation increasing a staggering by 166%, total hotel revenues in the emirate reached roughly AED6.3 billion, an increase of approximately 14%. In the meantime, recent reports from the Abu Dhabi Tourism Authority indicate that China is rapidly becoming a key source market, maintaining its triple-digit growth rates in arrivals.
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Abu Dhabi peaked for the first time in 2008 when it reached RevPAR levels of US$252. Following this particularly strong year, total rooms available increased by 36.9% in the subsequent year, a reflection of the faith existing in the destination during the FIGURE 3: ABU DHABI REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) preceding development years. Nonetheless, US$ % this significant increase in hotel inventory was 300 100 not absorbed by the increasing demand. 90 250 80 Rather, the first indications of a global 70 200 financial crisis dawned in early 2008, so that 60 150 50 during the last months of the year, the world 40 100 observed the worst financial crisis since the 30 20 50 Great Depression of 1929. The result was a 10 profound global impact, which had a ripple 0 0 effect reaching as far as Abu Dhabi. As the emirate geared up to revive its tourism sector, RevPAR Occupancy Source: HVS Research a property downturn delayed any indications of a rebound. In 2011, the Tourism Development and Investment Company (TDIC) announced that it was delaying three of the highest profile projects in Abu Dhabi, expected to generate considerable demand to the emirate. The Zayed National Museum, the Louvre Abu Dhabi and the Guggenheim were all placed on hold indefinitely. These projects were since reinstated, and are expected to open by the end of 2015. With the opening of the Yas Mall, the existing adventure parks, and the ongoing development on Saadiyat Island, Abu Dhabi is reinforcing its presence. Although it appears the bottom has been struck, current performance levels have a treacherous road before realizing earlier peak levels. Nonetheless, reports indicate that Q1 2015 performance is more than 11.0% ahead of the same time last year, with February alone registering 29.2% RevPAR growth, ensuring that Abu Dhabi may well be on the right track.
Amman Jordan’s capital city of Amman is its political, cultural and commercial centre, as well as one of the oldest uninterruptedly inhabited cities in the world. It would be assumed that this would be reason enough for a city to flourish in terms of hotel performance, FIGURE 4: AMMAN REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) however, Jordan is heavily exposed to the US$ % regional conflict. 120
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100 To the north, Jordan has a direct link to Syria, 80 which has been in conflict since 2011 and to the east, Jordan borders Iraq, which lost key 60 western cities in early 2014 to the IS. Amid 40 mixed reports, according to the UN Refugee 20 Agency (UNHCR), it estimates that there are 0 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Jordan, which represents an astounding 25% of the RevPAR Occupancy Source: HVS Research Jordanian population. This places a considerable burden on the economy, but also on the resources of the country, and damages its image to potential visitors. Amman peaked in 2012 when RevPAR reached US$108. Surrounding areas in conflict such as Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt resulted in an increase in GCC travel to Jordan, replacing the decline in North American and European visitors. During the
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first four months of 2012, the number of Arabian Gulf visitors to Jordan had already increased by 19.0%. Consequently, the hotel sector enjoyed a positive year that was unfortunately followed by a 14% decline in tourists in 2013. The fact that the government allegedly cut the budget of the Ministry of Tourism in 2012 did not encourage hotel operators, and in March 2013, the Ministry of Finance announced that hotel sales taxes would be raised 16.0% in order to improve the government’s fiscal position. As a result, hotel relationships with tour operators became damaged considering the dynamics of the distribution agreements established with those operators. Although the city is experiencing troubled times, expectations for the hospitality sector are high, particularly with a St. Regis, Fairmont and a W due to open in the next years in the capital. Though it is promising to see such high profile brands entering the market, preliminary reports during Q1 2015 indicate a 20% decline in RevPAR levels, implying that it is unlikely the city will observe a return to peak levels at any time during the near future. Contrarily, the additional inventory will likely place further downward pressure, thereby delaying the recovery to peak levels. The upside is that RevPAR levels do not exhibit a particularly steep decline between 2012 and 2014, indicating that recovery may be a less daunting task.
Beirut
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Beirut’s attractions include major events during the summer season, a vibrant and popular nightlife, the winter ski season, religious holidays throughout the year, corporate shoulder seasons and year-end festivities. However, the city and visitation there is particularly sensitive to the stability of its immediate political situation. This was particularly FIGURE 5: BEIRUT REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1996-2014) evident in 2014 following the attacks reported US$ % during H1 2014, which subsequently had an 250 100 90 adverse effect on the national hotel sector. In 200 80 spite of this sensitivity, Beirut fosters a unique 70 150 60 resilience and during pockets of stability, the 50 city almost immediately exhibits tourism 100 40 30 surges, which was similarly reflected in 2014, 50 20 when the market rebounded during the third 10 0 0 and fourth quarters. Historically, during 2006 and 2007, hotels RevPAR Occupancy Source: HVS Research exhibited irregular seasonality on account of the war with Israel, as well as the ensuing political stalemate. In the year prior, the assassination of Prime Minister Rafic Hariri equally discouraged growth in the tourism sector. According to preliminary Thereafter, once again, a border clash that erupted in August of 2010 resulted reports in the market, in another contraction in the RevPAR levels of the hotel industry, however, occupancy in Beirut 2010 nonetheless exhibited record tourist arrivals, reaching 2.17 million exhibited double-digit visitors. In the years in between, Beirut peaked at US$197 RevPAR, with 2009 growth during Q1 2015, marking the year of the highest performance achieved, wherein tourist arrivals with a phenomenal rose by 39% as a result of stability throughout the majority of facets within the 47.8% increase in January country. Following the end of the civil war in 1990, there have been notable advances in the restoration of Lebanon, and particularly its capital. As a result, alone. the number of visitor arrivals has grown significantly over the last decade, with 2009 and 2010 achieving the aforementioned record arrival and visitation figures.
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According to preliminary reports in the market, occupancy in Beirut exhibited double-digit growth during Q1 2015, with a phenomenal 47.8% increase in January alone, as airport passenger movements in Rafic Hariri International Airport grew by 10.2% during the first two months of the year. The WTTC reports a direct contribution to GDP of 6.9%, which is expected to increase 2.1% during 2015, however, with 2014 RevPAR levels at US$86.21, Beirut’s future must endure considerable growth in order to revive historical RevPAR levels.
Cairo Egypt has endured dramatic political turmoil and instability over the course of the last four years. Beginning in January 2011, the Egyptian Revolution commenced as a campaign of non-violent civil resistance, which despite its non-violent nature, resulted in significant loss of life as well as injury. On 11 th February, 2011, after persistent protest and pressure, President Hosni Mubarak resigned, resulting in administrative and legislative control of the country being surrendered to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. The volatile months that followed were defined by tens, and sometimes up to hundreds, of thousands of demonstrators protesting for action against the former FIGURE 6: CAIRO REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1995-2014) regime. Demonstrations continued into 2012 US$ % with ongoing demonstrations protesting the 120 100 disqualification of several candidates in the 90 100 80 then-upcoming presidential elections. 70 80 Following a life sentence delegated to 60 60 50 Mubarak in June, it was announced that 40 Mohammed Morsi had won the presidential 40 30 20 election. 20 10 0
0
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As a result of the turbulent episode between 2011 and 2012, the hospitality sector RevPAR Occupancy endured the backlash and the repercussions Source: HVS Research of the infamously entitled Arab Spring, with the hotel sector being among the hardest hit both locally and regionally. The capital city of Egypt, Cairo, peaked in 2009, when it reached US$112 in room revenue per available room. Whilst 2010 remained a relatively strong year in Reports in the market that hotel terms of visitation, the 427-key Radisson Blu Heliopolis, which opened towards estimate occupancy levels in Cairo the end of 2009, raised supply levels significantly, whilst an additional two hotels with a combined 355 keys opened in 2010 and effectively suppressed key increased by as much as performance indicators. The years that followed were subject to the 65.5% during Q1 2015. aforementioned turmoil, with plummeting occupancy levels as low as 38.0%. During the same month, Recently, Egypt has been displaying signs of solid growth. Reports in the market average rates improved estimate that hotel occupancy levels in Cairo increased by as much as 65.5% by 11.9% with the during Q1 2015. During the same month, average rates improved by 11.9% with dynamics of occupancy the dynamics of occupancy and rate facilitating phenomenal RevPAR growth of and rate facilitating 73.0%. Europe remains Egypt's primary source market, accounting for in excess phenomenal RevPAR of 60% of total tourist arrivals to the country. In the meantime, Russia remains growth of 73.0%. the largest individual source market, with more than 1.7 million tourists expected to travel to Egypt in 2015. In spite of a weakening ruble, reporting depreciation of over 50% over the last few months, the relative affordability of Egypt ought to encourage more travellers from Russia to visit Egypt.
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Furthermore, the Egyptian government ostensibly waived visa application costs for Russian travellers, reflecting the country's commitment to deepening its travel relations with Russia. Improving economic conditions are expected to serve as a catalyst for Western European travel to Egypt in addition to the removal of travel restrictions imposed by certain countries. Ultimately, green shoots are evident in the recovery of the Egyptian tourism industry, which contributes more than 11.0% to the country’s GDP, and though it still has pyramids to climb, Cairo is effectively poised for a return to peak performance.
Doha Qatar remains the nation with the highest GDP per capita based on 2014 IMF reports, by a landslide, reportedly exceeding US$143,000. Despite this being the result of its natural gas reserves, the country’s tourism sector has also developed over time. Doha became a focal point in the Middle East, securing the winning bid for the 2022 World Cup. Furthermore, the rapid expansion of Qatar Airways positioned Doha as a global layover destination. Qatar released its national tourism strategy for 2030 in early 2014, and will now embark on a new phase of sustainable development, focusing on the diversification of the national economy by expanding the non-oil and gas sectors. While tourism has traditionally had a direct impact of less than 1.0% on the GDP, the government aims to FIGURE 7: DOHA REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) increase this to 2.3% by the 2022 World Cup, US$ % and 3.1% by 2030. 250
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Qatar traditionally enjoyed occupancy levels 200 above 70.0%, with an exception between 150 1999 and 2002, when occupancy levels 100 hovered around 60.0%. This may be partially attributed to the oil prices crisis of 1998 and 50 subsequently the effect of the September 11th 0 attacks that were carried out in 2001. Several years later, Doha peaked at a RevPAR of RevPAR Occupancy Source: HVS Research US$218 in 2007, on the back of sustainable occupancy and solid average rate growth. However, the years 2007 and 2008 were followed by a decline in the aftermath of the global economic downturn, and RevPAR subsequently declined 29.1%. The impact of the downturn was exacerbated by an increase in the number of hotels by 20.0%, or the equivalent of roughly 1,700 hotel and hotel apartment keys, according to the Qatar Tourism Authority (QTA). Hotels, nonetheless, staged an impressive growth in 2014 with double-digit growth in RevPAR levels following a reported 8.2% increase in visitation to 2.8 million visitors. Currently, Q1 2015 reports demonstrate year-on-year average Hotels,nonetheless, staged an rate increases of between 10.0% and 12.0% in the first two months, with impressive growth in 2014 with strong occupancy growth particularly in January. double-digit growth in RevPAR levels following a reported 8.2% Based on the 2030 strategy, the QTA is geared towards increasing increase in visitation to 2.8 supply on average 2,000 keys annually until the 2022 World Cup, and with a significant boost in the years immediately prior to 2030, this million visitors. average is stretched to roughly 3,000 keys annually. Efforts by the QTA, including, but not limited to, a piecemeal overall investment of US$45 billion over the course of the next 15 years, will likely reduce any adverse effects of the supply increase. In the short-term, nonetheless, it is less likely that the peak performance of 2007 will be realized, rather that the increase in supply will be sustainably absorbed by an increase in demand.
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Dubai Dubai remains a global city and business hub, drawing international attention and acclaim. Realizing the implications of a finite resource, the leaders of Dubai facilitated a shift in economic dependence from the oil industry to a more diversified industry, which it has been monumentally successful in accomplishing. Aside from diversification into real estate, finance, construction, and multiple other industries, during the first half of 2014, restaurants and hotels contributed 5.5% to the economy, realizing growth of 4.4% to over AED9.3 billion. This compares to a contribution of roughly AED9.6 billion in 2007, albeit for the full year, when restaurants and hotels contributed 3.4% to the economy. Similar to several markets in the region, Dubai peaked in 2007, when RevPAR reached US$225. The downturn in the global economy that was experienced towards the end of 2008 enforced a correction in the hotel sector, with certain hotels significantly reducing rates in order to stimulate demand. Although hotel occupancy improved in the subsequent year, indicating a limited impact on the national economy, rates declined for one additional year as hotels competed over existing demand. In the meantime, it is apparent the Dubai exhibited another crest in 2013, whereafter the result of growth in hotel supply, and the impact of source markets resulted in declines in occupancy and rates. FIGURE 8: DUBAI REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) US$
%
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Notwithstanding, Dubai is largely sheltered from the impact of the regional turmoil, contrarily, it is benefitting therefrom. Following the unrest in neighbouring countries, a significant portion of leisure travellers opted to travel to Dubai instead. Moreover, financial sectors in neighbouring countries suffered an exodus as businesses moved towards the more centralized and stable Dubai.
Recent reports in the market indicate that Q1 2015 performance is roughly 7.0% – 8.0% behind same time last year on a RevPAR basis. The majority of this decline is attributed to average rates, while occupancy struggled less significantly. The implication of this fluctuation in performance indicators is that whilst the growth in supply is absorbed by the moderately lower growth in demand, that demand is facilitating more competitive rates. The impact of Eurozone currency fluctuations has had an impact on the hotel industry in Dubai as European currencies translate into fewer dirhams. Notwithstanding, the greatest impact was exhibited by the general economic condition of Russia, particularly the sliding Russian ruble. By Q4 2014, hotels in Dubai reported more than a 50.0% reduction in visitors from Recent released data Russia, who constitute one of the leading five source markets. According to Visa, indicate that Q1 2015 Russian tourists spent an estimated US$82 million during the 2013 Dubai performance is roughly Shopping Festival. Actual figures are potentially considerably higher as a 7.0% – 8.0% behind same significant number of Russian travellers pay with cash. It is concerning to imagine the impact that reduced visitation from Russia has on the hotel sector, time last year on a RevPAR basis. as well as the inherent economic benefits to the overall economy. RevPAR
Occupancy
Source: HVS Research
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Jeddah The coastal Red Sea city of Jeddah exhibits among the strongest key performance indicators in the region as a result of several variables. With a population of roughly 3.6 million, Jeddah is one of several major commercial centres in Saudi Arabia, and the third largest industrial district after Jubail and Yanbu. More importantly, Jeddah is a major gateway to the holy city of Makkah, which during the Hajj season in 2014 alone received more than two million visitors, 1.4 million of whom arrived through Jeddah’s King Abdulaziz International Airport. Finally, the city is particularly leisure-oriented as the most liberal and ethnically diverse city in the country, attracting local families who book weekend excursions. The number of rooms under construction in Jeddah remains particularly high and constitutes a significant portion of the existing supply. However a number of hotel are witnessing signifiant delays.
FIGURE 9: JEDDAH REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) US$
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Saudi Arabia as a country forecasts a 100 population of roughly 31.5 million 50 inhabitants by 2015, which ranks fifth in the 0 Middle East accounting for roughly 7.7% of the total population. Furthermore, Saudi RevPAR Occupancy residents travel frequently, and are therefore Source: HVS Research a key source market for cities within region. Following the unrest in key travel destinations, domestic tourism in Saudi Arabia accelerated and remains strong in recent years, particularly in regards to Jeddah. As a result of the growth in domestic tourism, while many cities realized peaks between 2007 and 2008, Jeddah peaked in 2013, when it reached US$194 RevPAR. The result of the growth in domestic tourism, limited additions to supply, and increasing discretionary income translated into impressive double-digit growth in average rates in 2013, in spite of the 4.0% decline in hotel occupancy. Whilst RevPAR levels reached US$189.04 in 2014, as stability returns to the region, it is likely that domestic tourism may decline. Moreover, with over 7,400 new rooms expected to open in the market over the next seven years, an increase in competition may suppress rates as operators compete over market share. Notwithstanding, the unprecedented growth expected in Makkah will likely mitigate any undesirable shifts in the market, and reinforce Jeddah as a transit city for the near-term spike in religious tourism to the holy city. As a result, Jeddah is expected to sustain performance levels.
Kuwait City Kuwait flourished prior to the Gulf War, however, following the Iraqi invasion in 1990, an alarming number of institutions relocated to Dubai and Bahrain. Prior During the first quarter of to the war, the Kuwait Investment Authority was valued at US$100 billion, which 2015, Kuwait City was subsequently halved following the Gulf War. Kuwait does regardless, reportedly exhibited maintain its status as the largest foreign investor in the region, investing heavily declines in RevPAR of up in the UK and China. Kuwait City peaked as far back as 2003, when it reached to 18.5%. US$196. This was due in part to the military and the media who frequented the region. In 2002, as the pending war in Iraq approached breaking point, the majority of US military forces in the region were based in Kuwait.
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FIGURE 10: KUWAIT C. REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1995-2014) US$
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This induced significant levels of demand for quality hotel accommodation, particularly during the third quarter of the year. During 2003, the hotel market effective prospered from the outbreak of the Iraq War, with occupancy levels soaring to roughly 84%. This performance was realistically unsustainable, and as a result, the hotel sector declined from this peak.
Kuwait continues to struggle with driving average rates as a result of the low Source: HVS Research occupancies achieved by hotels in the capital. During the first quarter of 2015, Kuwait City reportedly exhibited declines in RevPAR of up to 18.5%. It is unlikely, and potentially undesirable given the circumstances that facilitated the peak performance, for Kuwait City to return to those levels exhibited towards the beginning of the millennium. It is more realistic for the city to exhibit similar RevPAR levels with moderate fluctuations in performance, however, any additions to supply will likely upset the status quo and negatively impact performance levels. With that said, if 2015 continues on a similar path as during the first quarter, both 2014 and 2015 will register declines and effectively continue a downward trend. RevPAR
Occupancy
Manama Revered as a banking and financial services hub, particularly for Islamic banking, Bahrain benefited from the regional boom driven by the demand for oil as the first Gulf state to discover and begin refining the resource. In 2004, Bahrain became as well the first country in the Middle East to host the Formula One Grand Prix.
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Bahrain was another country subject to the FIGURE 11: MANAMA REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) revolutionary wave of protests sweeping the US$ % region at the start of the second decade of the 250 100 90 millennium, albeit commencing locally in mid200 80 February of 2011. As a result, the Formula One 70 150 60 Grand Prix during 2011 was cancelled 50 following driver protests, reducing potential 100 40 30 movements of 100,000 visitors to zero. 50 20 Although the race resumed in 2012, visitor 10 0 0 numbers were reportedly down by 30.0%. The impact of the protests had a detrimental RevPAR Occupancy impact on the Source: HVS Research sector, Nonetheless, four- and hotel contracting hotel occupancies to roughly half of preceding years. Manama five-star hotels in peaked in 2008, when RevPAR reached US$195, which was followed by the Manama enjoyed a adverse impact of the global downturn. Although a shortage existed in five-star recovery in the leisure hotels in the city in 2010, expected developments in the hotel industry shortly segment in 2014 as thereafter were either temporarily halted, or cancelled altogether. Nonetheless, stability returned to the those developments reaching fruition since then have contained any indication political sector, thereby of a solid rebound, with hotel occupancies remaining under 50.0%. driving occupancy levels. Nonetheless, four- and five-star hotels in Manama enjoyed a recovery in the
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leisure segment in 2014 as stability returned to the political sector, thereby driving occupancy levels. The corporate segment in the meantime was driven as well by the revival of key infrastructure and mixed-use developments by the government. As a result of these indications of growth, sources in the market believe that performance will remain buoyant, which is supported by Figure 11, wherein the rebound after 2011 appears to be sustained.
Muscat The easternmost country on the Arabian Peninsula, the Sultanate of Oman is a middle-income economy with notable oil and gas resources. Nonetheless, Muscat, the capital of Oman, has positioned itself as a contending destination for tourism with its natural beauty and its hospitable environment. The industry predicts that Oman’s hospitality sector will grow at an annual rate of 12.1% until 2018, while the WTTC estimates that capital investments in travel and tourism will rise by 6.7% annually over the course of the next ten years. The council reported that Oman’s direct contribution to its GDP grew by 10.2% in 2014, ranking third in the world behind Montenegro and Cambodia in terms of growth, reinforcing the aggressive growth strategy in implementation. Notwithstanding, the Omani Ministry of Tourism is focused on developing a more authentic Arab experience, particularly on the splendor FIGURE 12: MUSCAT REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1995-2014) of its local traditions and heritage sites, as US$ % opposed to the sun, sand and shopping 250 100 90 experience on offer by competing regional 200 80 destinations. 70 150
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Muscat reached its peak in 2008, when RevPAR levels hit US$227, and reportedly 50 achieved the highest RevPAR levels in the region in 2007. These years also happen to be 0 the only successive years during which airport passenger movements declined. RevPAR Occupancy Source: HVS Research Although movements at Muscat International Airport have grown at 11.5% compounded annually since 2003, movements between 2007 and 2008 declined as a result of Oman’s withdrawal from the struggling Gulf Air airline. In Q1 2006, Shangri-La’s Barr Al Jissa Resort & Spa opened its doors, positioning Muscat as a key player in the regional hospitality market, and likely giving aggregate rates in the city the necessary push in order to achieve peak levels between 2007 and 2008. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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In the years that followed, Muscat became another victim of the global recession that rocked the world, as well as the Arab Spring that rocked the region. RevPAR performance since the crash rebounded in 2010, and is exhibiting the sustainable growth necessary in order to recreate former market conditions, albeit more realistically in the long-term. On the other hand, with the persistent regional turmoil, current market conditions in the Eurozone, and the pipeline due on the horizon, the outlook may remain rather moderate in the short-term, particularly considering the double-digit declines reported in RevPAR during Q1 2015.
Riyadh The capital city of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh’s skyline is rapidly transforming as it enjoys remarkable growth on the back of an expanding economy. As the geographic and cultural centre of the Kingdom, as well as the largest city in the country, Riyadh has developed into a dynamic metropolis in recent years. As the political
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centre of Saudi Arabia, Riyadh receives predominantly corporate visitors from within the region and internationally. Riyadh peaked in 2009 when it reached US$199. During this year, although rates continued to grow impressively, occupancies began declining as a result of the global slowdown as well as the gradually increasing supply in the market. This increase in supply became even more pronounced towards the end of 2011 as it considerably outstripped the growth in demand. The result FIGURE 13: RIYADH REVPAR (US$) & OCCUPANCY (%) (1994-2014) was a decline in RevPAR in 2010 as hotel US$ % operators revised rate strategies in order to 250 100 90 capture additional market share, and the 200 80 market has not yet fully recovered since then. 70 150
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
In spite of the growth in supply, the decline in RevPAR was less pronounced than other 50 markets in the region, and during 2014, 0 Riyadh recorded double-digit growth in revenue per available room. Moreover, reports released during Q1 2015 suggest RevPAR Occupancy Source: HVS Research further double-digit RevPAR growth has surfaced, indicating renewed optimism. However, if occupancy rates remain the same, the additional supply due to open, combined with unstable oil prices, may have an undesirable effect on growth rates in the hotel sector. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
100
Development Pipeline Regardless of the peaks and troughs, development in the region is inevitable and remains ongoing. Based on an existing database of roughly 130,000 rooms currently operating in the region, leading hotel operators are expecting to release a further 86,000 rooms between 2014 and 2020, with a further 11,000 rooms that remain to be assigned definitive completion dates. The majority of this inventory is under the various phases of development in Saudi Arabia, where reportedly 38,000 rooms are expected to increase the existing inventory to roughly 59,000. The UAE boasts the second largest pipeline, with roughly 26,000 in planning and construction.
As considerable new supply enters the market, tourism officials will need to work even harder in order to ensure that demand grows in line with supply..
As operators compete to increase their market share and market presence, the pipeline for Hilton Worldwide is currently leading the development scene in the region, with a purported 20,000 rooms under development. Accor, Marriott International and Starwood Hotels and Resorts are equally aggressive in expected growth, each contributing roughly 10,000 rooms to the total development pipeline based on database figures made available. Figure 14 provides an indication of additional brands in the region, as well as their contribution to the future room supply. As new supply enters the market, tourism officials will need to work even harder in order to ensure that demand grows in line with supply, keeping ahead of, or at the very least up with, the considerable additional room nights expected over the course of the forthcoming years.
2015 MIDDLE EAST HOTEL SURVEY – PEAK ASSESSMENTS | PAGE 12
Dubai, for example, is already well under way in developing 18,000 additional leisure facilities 16,000 14,000 including, but not limited to, 12,000 10,000 theater districts, leisure park 8,000 6,000 and recreation districts, with 4,000 2,000 retail expansion continuing to 0 shatter record after record. Doha is also well under way towards realizing its tourism vision with the clear strategy it Source: HVS Research established, the Hamad International Airport is operational and persistent niche focus on sporting events expected to facilitiate the growth in demand required in order to absorb the new supply. FIGURE 14: BRANDED SUPPLY PIPELINE BY OPERATOR (ROOMS) 20,000
Forecast The WTTC forecasts that direct contribution to GDP will experience a contraction of 1.8% in 2015, likely on the basis of the aforementioned regional conflict(s), as well as the impact of the European currency fluctuations and macroeconomic events such as Russian sanctions. In spite of this minor correction, the forecast for the next ten years is roughly 6.4% compound annual growth in direct contribution to GDP. Similarly, the total contribution to employment is expected to exceed 8.0% within seven years, while regional travel & tourism spending is expected to exceed US$200 billion within ten years, exhibiting compound annual growth of marginally under 4.0% up until 2024. FIGURE 15: TRAVEL AND TOURISM CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL GDP FORECAST(2015-2025) US Bn 350 300 250 200 150 100
As stability returns to sub regions, the tourism in those areas that are currently in turmoil will rebound slowly as the market tracks the evolution of its stability. The first segment that will likely resume travel to any unstable area is corporate travel, followed by FITs and ultimately wholesale tours and groups, who typically bear greater liabilities.
Cycles will undoubtedly exist, as forecasts are merely expectations for 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 performance under ideal or Direct contribution to GDP Total contribution to GDP Source:WTTC indefinitely improving conditions. Several markets in the region have proven their resilience before so that any marginal improvements in macroeconomics, local political or local economic conditions will likely stimulate the local tourism sector to peak anew. In the meantime, tourism officials are encouraged to continue developing both natural and artificial demand generators in order to ensure that once conditions become ideal, the infrastructure is already in place to accommodate the pending growth in demand. 50 0
2015 MIDDLE EAST HOTEL SURVEY – PEAK ASSESSMENTS | PAGE 13
-
Al Quseir
Alexandria
Cairo
Dahab
79 %
Sharm El Sheikh
-
Muscat
Salalah
Oman
-
-
Fujairah
Ras al-Khaimah
Sharjah
64 %
-
-
Dubai
Sana'a
-
74 %
Al Ain
-
Ajman
65 %
Izmir
Abu Dhabi
-
-
70 %
Istanbul
Latakia
Damascus
-
Source: HVS Research
Average
Yemen
UAE
Turkey
Syria
-
66 %
Riyadh
Yanbu
-
Medina
Taif
-
Makkah
-
Dammam
68 %
-
Al Khobar
Jeddah
-
Al Jubail
Saudi Arabia
61 %
Doha
Qatar
-
67 %
Beirut
Lebanon
-
Petra
44 %
Dead Sea
Kuwait City
-
Aqaba
Kuwait
-
Amman
Jordan
-
61 %
Erbil
Iraq
-
-
Taba
-
Marsa Al Alam
48 %
Luxor
Hurghada
-
Al Gouna
Egypt
65 %
-
-
-
-
69 %
-
-
58 %
-
-
-
73 %
-
-
62 %
-
-
64 %
-
-
-
75 %
66 %
41 %
-
-
-
74 %
-
-
73 %
-
-
63 %
-
63 %
-
-
-
58 %
-
Manama
Bahrain
65 %
1995
AVERAGE ANNUAL OCCUPANCY (19942014) 1994
64 %
-
-
-
-
74 %
-
-
66 %
-
-
-
68 %
-
-
61 %
-
-
61 %
-
-
-
80 %
64 %
45 %
44 %
-
-
-
71 %
-
-
72 %
-
-
70 %
-
73 %
-
-
-
53 %
1996
65 %
-
-
-
-
73 %
-
-
65 %
-
-
-
70 %
-
-
62 %
-
-
58 %
-
-
-
78 %
71 %
61 %
46 %
-
-
-
61 %
-
-
66 %
-
-
63 %
-
71 %
-
-
-
63 %
1997
61 %
-
-
-
-
70 %
-
-
66 %
-
-
-
69 %
-
-
63 %
-
-
60 %
-
-
-
72 %
56 %
61 %
46 %
-
-
-
56 %
-
-
68 %
-
-
50 %
-
62 %
-
-
-
58 %
1998
64 %
-
-
-
-
70 %
-
-
64 %
-
-
-
69 %
-
-
62 %
-
-
59 %
-
-
-
61 %
57 %
56 %
47 %
-
-
-
56 %
-
-
79 %
-
-
80 %
-
77 %
-
-
-
56 %
1999
63 %
-
-
-
-
74 %
-
-
67 %
-
-
-
66 %
-
-
60 %
-
-
63 %
-
-
-
58 %
55 %
57 %
46 %
-
-
-
59 %
-
-
63 %
-
-
77 %
-
79 %
-
-
-
59 %
2000
60 %
-
-
-
-
71 %
-
-
67 %
-
-
-
65 %
-
-
61 %
-
-
59 %
-
-
-
56 %
62 %
55 %
49 %
-
-
-
44 %
-
-
61 %
-
-
65 %
-
67 %
-
-
-
62 %
2001
-
-
-
62 %
-
-
-
-
76 %
-
-
68 %
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
%
%
%
66 %
-
-
-
79 %
-
68 %
-
-
-
-
64 %
-
-
53 %
-
-
57 %
59 %
67 % 65
-
-
65 %
-
-
57 %
-
-
-
%
%
84 %
60 % 72
59 %
57 %
53 %
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
%
64 %
45 % 57
-
-
66 %
-
-
66 % 66
-
68 % 67
-
-
-
-
2003
64 % 64
2002
72 %
-
-
-
-
86 %
-
-
82 %
-
-
-
69 %
-
-
55 %
-
-
54 %
-
-
-
72 %
69 %
71 %
64 %
-
-
-
72 %
-
-
75 %
-
-
86 %
-
75 %
-
-
-
72 %
2004
72 %
-
-
-
-
82 %
-
-
85 %
-
-
-
75 %
-
-
62 %
-
-
61 %
-
-
-
71 %
80 %
52 %
70 %
-
-
-
70 %
-
-
71 %
-
-
75 %
-
77 %
-
-
-
75 %
2005
70 %
-
-
-
-
84 %
-
-
84 %
-
-
-
73 %
-
-
70 %
-
-
64 %
-
-
-
71 %
74 %
48 %
65 %
-
-
-
58 %
-
-
66 %
-
-
75 %
-
75 %
-
-
-
71 %
2006
72 %
-
-
-
-
87 %
-
-
81 %
-
-
-
80 %
-
-
71 %
-
-
73 %
-
-
-
71 %
67 %
39 %
58 %
-
-
-
64 %
-
-
76 %
-
-
86 %
-
81 %
-
-
-
77 %
2007
70 %
49 %
83 %
81 %
74 %
81 %
71 %
77 %
81 %
-
-
-
79 %
-
48 %
74 %
61 %
60 %
77 %
60 %
61 %
%
70 %
67 %
69 %
57 %
62 %
75 %
68 %
73 %
66 %
74 %
74 %
81 %
79 %
52 %
88 %
54 %
76 %
69 %
%
81 %
75 %
2008
64 %
39 %
67 %
67 %
69 %
69 %
69 %
63 %
73 %
-
-
41 %
71 %
43 %
58 %
67 %
63 %
55 %
73 %
71 %
62 %
86 %
58 %
70 %
54 %
70 %
59 %
59 %
55 %
41 %
57 %
81 %
74 %
75 %
71 %
45 %
80 %
61 %
71 %
68 %
71 %
72 %
68 %
2009
62 %
33 %
61 %
67 %
66 %
72 %
69 %
40 %
64 %
55 %
70 %
44 %
74 %
37 %
57 %
63 %
56 %
54 %
72 %
49 %
45 %
64 %
66 %
67 %
58 %
66 %
54 %
64 %
57 %
53 %
63 %
79 %
80 %
82 %
64 %
42 %
82 %
70 %
73 %
65 %
78 %
72 %
66 %
2010
52 %
11 %
70 %
74 %
69 %
72 %
65 %
73 %
70 %
47 %
71 %
17 %
21 %
45 %
59 %
63 %
61 %
55 %
72 %
55 %
49 %
51 %
59 %
67 %
53 %
59 %
58 %
33 %
34 %
49 %
58 %
71 %
52 %
48 %
32 %
24 %
63 %
46 %
38 %
53 %
41 %
48 %
34 %
2011
58
%
35 %
70 %
80 %
76 %
80 %
58 %
74 %
67 %
54 %
77 %
24 %
15 %
50 %
44 %
54 %
64 %
67 %
79 %
62 %
57 %
67 %
63 %
69 %
60 %
56 %
58 %
30 %
61 %
56 %
69 %
75 %
52 %
60 %
67 %
22 %
72 %
50 %
49 %
64 %
48 %
46 %
49 %
2012
57 %
28 %
76 %
78 %
71 %
81 %
72 %
70 %
73 %
57 %
69 %
45 %
34 %
64 %
37 %
55 %
64 %
63 %
78 %
66 %
63 %
76 %
64 %
70 %
65 %
48 %
59 %
39 %
52 %
55 %
63 %
77 %
48 %
54 %
35 %
15 %
63 %
50 %
37 %
59 %
40 %
54 %
49 %
2013
59 %
18 %
75 %
65 %
54 %
73 %
60 %
78 %
74 %
47 %
63 %
- %
62 %
61 %
- %
66 %
66 %
71 %
77 %
70 %
69 %
- %
76 %
49 %
66 %
49 %
53 %
54 %
45 %
54 %
61 %
63 %
33 %
58 %
69 %
19 %
72 %
- %
47 %
62 %
- %
- %
55 %
2014
3 %
-35 %
-1 %
-17 %
-23 %
-9 %
-16 %
12 %
2 %
-17 %
-9 %
- %
81 %
-4 %
- %
20 %
3 %
13 %
-2 %
7 %
9 %
- %
19 %
-29 %
1 %
2 %
-10 %
38 %
-12 %
-1 %
-3 %
-18 %
-31 %
9 %
99 %
28 %
16 %
- %
26 %
6 %
- %
- %
13 %
% Change 2013-2014
FIGURE 16: AVERAGE ANNUAL OCCUPANCY (1994-2014)
2015 MIDDLE EAST HOTEL SURVEY – PEAK ASSESSMENTS | PAGE 14
103 -
Muscat
Salalah
Oman
98 -
Riyadh
Taif
Yanbu
-
-
Fujairah
Ras Al Khaimah
Sharjah 98
-
-
Dubai
Sana'a
117
Al Ain
-
Ajman
108
Izmir
Abu Dhabi
-
-
Istanbul
Latakia
102
-
Madinah
Damascus
-
Makkah
Source: HVS Research * Or the earliest year for which data are available
Average
Yemen
UAE
Turkey
Syria
99
Jeddah
-
Al Khobar
Dammam
-
Al Jubail
Saudi Arabia
65
Doha
Qatar
-
Beirut
Lebanon
209
Kuwait City
Petra
Kuwait
-
-
Taba
Dead Sea
51
Sharm El Sheikh
-
-
Marsa Al Alam
Aqaba
-
Luxor
-
67
Hurghada
67
-
Dahab
Amman
-
Cairo
Erbil
-
Alexandria
Jordan
-
Al Quseir
Iraq
-
Al Gouna
86
Manama
Egypt
1994
Bahrain
AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE (1994-2014)
93
-
-
-
-
119
-
-
114
-
-
-
73
-
-
105
-
-
103
-
-
-
68
-
103
-
205
-
-
-
75
-
-
49
-
-
39
-
66
-
-
-
87
1995
107
-
-
-
-
120
-
-
129
-
-
-
124
-
-
106
-
-
117
-
-
-
77
-
112
166
213
-
-
-
83
-
-
53
-
-
41
-
67
-
-
-
92
1996
107
-
-
-
-
126
-
-
111
-
-
-
118
-
-
110
-
-
115
-
-
-
101
-
101
173
201
-
-
-
83
-
-
52
-
-
44
-
69
-
-
-
90
1997
101
-
-
-
-
107
-
-
101
-
-
-
111
-
-
113
-
-
113
-
-
-
116
-
95
143
204
-
-
-
81
-
-
35
-
-
30
-
70
-
-
-
93
1998
99
-
-
-
-
104
-
-
99
-
-
-
104
-
-
116
-
-
111
-
-
-
112
-
91
129
203
-
-
-
71
-
-
44
-
-
34
-
71
-
-
-
102
1999
99
-
-
-
-
105
-
-
88
-
-
-
97
-
-
115
-
-
119
-
-
-
115
-
86
110
214
-
-
-
68
-
-
45
-
-
41
-
77
-
-
-
105
2000
95
-
-
-
-
100
-
-
89
-
-
-
94
-
-
110
-
-
110
-
-
-
105
-
80
101
218
-
-
-
68
-
-
41
-
-
35
-
75
-
-
-
103
2001
95
-
-
-
-
110
-
-
89
-
-
-
94
-
-
107
-
-
104
-
-
-
100
-
74
110
216
-
-
-
65
-
-
37
-
-
30
-
68
-
-
-
119
2002
100
-
-
-
-
113
-
-
87
-
-
-
102
-
-
104
-
-
104
-
-
-
101
-
66
154
233
-
-
-
69
-
-
39
-
-
32
-
68
-
-
-
122
2003
111
-
-
-
-
144
-
-
91
-
-
-
100
-
-
105
-
-
114
-
-
-
146
-
82
168
230
-
-
-
85
-
-
42
-
-
40
-
69
-
-
-
132
2004
134
-
-
-
-
192
-
-
117
-
-
-
105
-
-
110
-
-
144
-
-
-
268
-
117
116
237
-
-
-
118
-
-
52
-
-
47
-
77
-
-
-
177
2005
149
-
-
-
-
225
-
-
167
-
-
-
95
-
-
142
-
-
137
-
-
-
296
-
154
110
239
-
-
-
132
-
-
54
-
-
46
-
88
-
-
-
196
2006
179
-
-
-
-
258
-
-
238
-
-
-
120
-
-
202
-
-
165
-
-
-
306
-
283
78
239
-
-
-
147
-
-
53
-
-
41
-
122
-
-
-
249
2007
164
70
96
135
183
259
158
245
309
-
-
-
178
-
176
233
96
182
208
179
229
-
304
97
329
143
260
86
168
95
161
170
43
81
-
46
49
82
134
124
-
-
259
2008
157
104
78
131
156
184
157
172
294
-
-
119
236
139
170
297
106
228
205
185
233
216
261
122
244
281
257
129
188
126
140
138
41
80
55
47
45
76
158
110
67
89
205
2009
148
106
84
140
147
167
153
175
210
128
141
103
233
139
174
261
114
202
181
172
193
230
230
124
210
263
241
132
174
122
137
152
43
82
59
88
49
79
118
100
60
89
209
2010
144
98
80
143
125
191
152
137
176
116
147
70
168
125
171
264
127
238
176
171
186
250
231
118
245
220
244
93
186
107
136
240
44
69
55
80
37
75
125
93
62
91
204
2011
156
124
76
153
126
230
175
103
161
126
256
65
108
150
186
274
156
242
240
155
215
237
232
127
219
241
241
132
230
147
156
287
47
95
43
85
47
44
115
93
81
115
221
2012
147
106
84
158
136
236
145
75
154
129
246
34
68
173
176
277
141
208
249
153
214
250
197
133
226
174
246
123
225
119
165
303
37
59
49
76
38
42
105
67
58
81
222
2013
147
102
130
162
104
244
132
103
147
83
183
-
80
153
-
237
139
227
246
150
176
-
201
133
234
175
243
131
163
124
153
292
31
58
48
63
36
-
107
90
-
-
228
2014
1 %
-3 %
54 %
3 %
-24 %
3 %
-9 %
38 %
-4 %
-35 %
-26 %
- %
18 %
-11 %
- %
-14 %
-1 %
9 %
-1 %
-2 %
-18 %
- %
2 %
0 %
3 %
1 %
-1 %
7 %
-28 %
4 %
-7 %
-4 %
-17 %
-1 %
-2 %
-18 %
-5 %
- %
2 %
34 %
- %
- %
3 %
2 %
6 %
5 %
3 %
-9 %
4 %
-3 %
-14 %
2 %
-10 %
7 %
- %
-1 %
2 %
- %
5 %
6 %
4 %
5 %
-3 %
-4 %
- %
6 %
5 %
4 %
0 %
1 %
7 %
-1 %
5 %
4 %
9 %
-5 %
1 %
-3 %
5 %
-3 %
- %
3 %
-5 %
- %
93 %
5 %
Change CAGR 2013-2014 1994*-2014
FIGURE 17: AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE (US$) (1994-2014)
2015 MIDDLE EAST HOTEL SURVEY – PEAK ASSESSMENTS | PAGE 15
-
Yanbu
-
-
Fujairah
Ras al-Khaimah
Sharjah
63
-
-
Dubai
Sana'a
-
87
Al Ain
-
Ajman
-
70
Izmir
Abu Dhabi
-
Istanbul
-
-
Taif
71
65
Riyadh
Latakia
-
Madinah
Damascus
-
Makkah
Source: HVS Research * Or the earliest year for which data are available
Average
Yemen
UAE
Turkey
Syria
-
67
Jeddah
-
Al Khobar
Dammam
-
Al Jubail
Saudi Arabia
39
Salalah
Doha
-
Muscat
Oman
Qatar
69
Beirut
Lebanon
-
93
Kuwait City
Petra
Kuwait
-
-
Taba
Dead Sea
40
Sharm El Sheikh
-
-
Marsa Al Alam
Aqaba
-
Luxor
-
32
Hurghada
41
-
Dahab
Amman
-
Cairo
Erbil
-
Alexandria
Jordan
-
Al Quseir
Iraq
-
Al Gouna
56
Manama
Egypt
1994
Bahrain
ANNUAL AVERAGE REVPAR (19942014)
60
-
-
-
-
82
-
-
66
-
-
-
53
-
-
66
-
-
66
-
-
-
51
-
68
83
-
-
-
55
-
-
36
-
-
24
-
42
-
-
-
51
1995
69
-
-
-
-
89
-
-
85
-
-
-
84
-
-
64
-
-
71
-
-
-
62
-
72
75
93
-
-
-
59
-
-
38
-
-
29
-
49
-
-
-
49
1996
69
-
-
-
-
92
-
-
72
-
-
-
82
-
-
69
-
-
67
-
-
-
79
-
72
105
93
-
-
-
51
-
-
34
-
-
28
-
49
-
-
-
56
1997
62
-
-
-
-
75
-
-
66
-
-
-
76
-
-
71
-
-
68
-
-
-
83
-
53
88
94
-
-
-
45
-
-
24
-
-
15
-
43
-
-
-
54
1998
63
-
-
-
-
73
-
-
63
-
-
-
72
-
-
72
-
-
66
-
-
-
69
-
52
73
94
-
-
-
40
-
-
35
-
-
27
-
55
-
-
-
57
1999
62
-
-
-
-
78
-
-
60
-
-
-
65
-
-
69
-
-
75
-
-
-
67
-
47
62
98
-
-
-
40
-
-
28
-
-
31
-
61
-
-
-
62
2000
57
-
-
-
-
71
-
-
60
-
-
-
61
-
-
67
-
-
65
-
-
-
59
-
50
56
107
-
-
-
30
-
-
25
-
-
23
-
50
-
-
-
64
2001
59
-
-
-
-
84
-
-
61
-
-
-
63
-
-
70
-
-
59
-
-
-
60
-
44
63
114
-
-
-
29
-
-
24
-
-
20
-
46
-
-
-
76
2002
65
-
-
-
-
89
-
-
59
-
-
-
66
-
-
67
-
-
55
-
-
-
73
-
38
91
196
-
-
-
39
-
-
25
-
-
21
-
45
-
-
-
78
2003
79
-
-
-
-
124
-
-
75
-
-
-
69
-
-
58
-
-
62
-
-
-
105
-
57
119
147
-
-
-
61
-
-
32
-
-
34
-
52
-
-
-
95
2004
96
-
-
-
-
158
-
-
99
-
-
-
79
-
-
68
-
-
88
-
-
-
191
-
94
61
165
-
-
-
82
-
-
37
-
-
35
-
60
-
-
-
133
2005
104
-
-
-
-
188
-
-
140
-
-
-
69
-
-
100
-
-
87
-
-
-
208
-
114
53
155
-
-
-
77
-
-
36
-
-
34
-
66
-
-
-
140
2006
129
-
-
-
-
225
-
-
192
-
-
-
95
-
-
143
-
-
121
-
-
-
218
-
190
30
139
-
-
-
95
-
-
40
-
-
35
-
99
-
-
-
193
2007
115
34
80
109
135
209
112
189
252
-
-
-
140
-
84
173
59
109
161
107
140
-
213
65
227
81
160
65
114
69
106
126
32
66
-
24
43
44
102
86
-
-
195
2008
100
40
52
88
108
127
108
108
215
-
-
49
168
60
99
199
67
125
150
131
144
186
151
86
131
197
152
76
103
52
80
111
30
60
39
21
36
46
112
75
48
64
139
2009
92
35
51
94
97
121
105
70
134
70
99
46
172
51
98
164
64
109
130
85
86
146
151
83
121
174
130
84
99
65
87
120
35
67
38
37
40
56
86
65
47
64
138
2010
84
11
56
106
86
138
99
100
123
55
104
12
35
56
101
166
77
131
127
94
91
128
136
79
130
130
142
31
63
52
79
170
23
33
18
19
23
35
48
49
25
44
69
2011
90
43
53
122
96
184
100
76
107
68
196
16
16
75
82
149
100
161
190
96
124
158
147
88
132
134
139
40
141
82
108
215
25
57
29
19
34
22
56
60
39
52
109
2012
84
29
64
123
96
191
104
52
112
73
170
16
23
110
65
153
90
130
194
100
136
189
126
93
148
84
145
48
117
66
104
233
18
31
17
11
24
12
39
40
23
43
108
2013
88
18
97
105
57
178
79
80
109
39
115
-
50
93
-
157
92
160
189
106
121
-
152
66
154
86
129
70
74
67
94
185
10
34
33
12
26
-
50
56
-
-
125
2014
4 %
-37 %
52 %
-15 %
-41 %
-7 %
-24 %
54 %
-3 %
-46 %
-32 %
- %
113 %
-15 %
- %
2 %
2 %
23 %
-3 %
5 %
-11 %
- %
21 %
-29 %
4 %
3 %
-11 %
48 %
-37 %
3 %
-10 %
-21 %
-43 %
8 %
96 %
5 %
10 %
- %
28 %
39 %
- %
- %
16 %
-4
-10 %
3 %
-1 %
-13 %
4 %
-6 %
-13 %
2 %
-14 %
4 %
- %
-2 %
9 %
- %
5 %
8 %
7 %
5 %
0 %
-2 %
- %
7 %
0 %
4 %
1 %
2 %
1 %
-7 %
0 %
4 %
7 %
-17 %
-1 %
-3 %
-11 %
-1 %
- %
1 %
-7 %
- %
- %
4 %
Change 2013CAGR 2014 1994*-2014
FIGURE 18: AVERAGE ANNUAL REVPAR (US$) (1994-2014)
2015 MIDDLE EAST HOTEL SURVEY – PEAK ASSESSMENTS | PAGE 16
About HVS
About the Authors
HVS is the world’s leading consulting and services organisation focused on the hotel, mixed-use, shared ownership, gaming, and leisure industries. Established in 1980, the company performs more than 4500 assignments per year for hotel and real estate owners, operators and developers worldwide. HVS principals are regarded as the leading professionals in their respective regions of the globe. Through a worldwide network of more than 30 offices and 450 professionals, HVS provides an unparalleled range of complementary services for the hospitality industry. For further information regarding our expertise and specifics about our services, please visit www.hvs.com. HVS.com
Cristina Zegrea is a Senior Manager with the HVS Dubai Office. After practicing law, Cristina redirected her focus to hospitality sales & marketing. Performing in various managerial roles for multiple established international hotel chains, Cristina developed a solid foundation and in-depth understanding of hotel demand, rate positioning strategies and hotel operations overall. While at HVS, Cristina has conducted multiple highest and best use and feasibility studies, valuations, operator searches and operational assessments throughout the Middle East. czegrea@hvs.com
Superior Results through Unrivalled Hospitality Intelligence. Everywhere. HVS DUBAI has a team of experts that conducts its operations in the Middle East and Africa. The team benefits from international and local cultural backgrounds, diverse academic and hotel-related experience, in-depth expertise in the hotel markets in the Middle East and Africa and a broad exposure to international hotel markets. Over the last seven years, the team has advised on more than 500 hotels or projects in the region for hotel owners, lenders, investors and operators. HVS has advised on more than US$55 billion worth of hotel real estate in the the region.
HVS.com
Hala Matar Choufany is the Managing Partner of HVS Dubai and is responsible for the firm's valuation and consulting work in the Middle East and Africa. She has worked on several mixed use developments and conducted numerous valuations, feasibility studies, operator searches, operational assessments, strategy advice in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Hala has in-depth expertise in regional hotel markets and a broad exposure to international markets and maintains excellent contacts with developers, owners, operators, investment institutions and government entities. Before joining HVS International, Hala had several years of operational and managerial hotel industry experience. Hala is an official Member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (MRICS) and also holds an MPhil from Leeds University U.K., an MBA in Finance and Strategy from IMHI (Essec-Cornell) University, Paris, France. hchoufany@hvs.com
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