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Politics
Politics | Goa Assembly Elections 2022 The Hunt for Allies
The senior journalist highlights Goa’s political scenario over the last few years, and wonders whether 2022 will be a game-changer for the State
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SANDESH PRABHUDESAI
The forthcoming Goa Assembly Election 2022 is full of uncertainty at the moment in the background of two elections of immediate past – 2012 and 2017, results of which were diametrically opposite and not being analysed by any political expert till date.
In the last four and a half years, the greed for power is displayed shamelessly by each and every political party, as well as leading politicians, by throwing all kinds of principles and ethics to the wind and taking the socalled educated voter of Goa on a real horse (trading) ride!
In view of this, while striding towards the next election, not a single party is in a position to face the electorate by going all alone. Neither the opportunist leaders are confident about themselves or about the unpredictable voter of Goa. Goan voters, since Goa’s first election held in 1963, have been a mystery to the politician. In the first ever election, while Congress leaders had even distributed cabinet berths among themselves, Goa’s conscientious voter had wiped out this national party from Goa’s political battlefield and elected the MGP to power with UGP in the opposition. The Congress did not even contest the 1967 election. It started ruling the State since 1980 only when the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party and United Goans Party leaders joined the national mainstream, called Congress (Urs). The party swept the election by winning 20 out of 28 seats (2 were Daman and Diu). And when Indira Gandhi swept the elections nationwide, they overnight joined Congress (Indira) after the results.
Hindu - Christian Bahujan Formula
Since then, the concept of HinduChristian unity with ‘Bahujan’ at its core, has been ruling Goa. Bhausaheb Bandodkar was the real architect of this formula, who had ruled with a three-member cabinet: a Hindu Bahujan, a Brahmin and a Christian. In spite of Goa’s conscientious voter getting fed up of series of defections and all kind of power-hungry, blackmoney-driven opportunistic groups coming to power since 1990, the ‘new hope’ like Manohar Parrikar could sit in the saddle only when he also chanted the same political mantra – “Hindu-Christian unity with Bahujan at its core”.
The defector and opportunistic politicians had to otherwise somehow manage their victories only by splitting the opposition votes, using caste, religion as well as money and muscle power in order to swing hardly 10 to 20 per cent votes, thanks to the tiny constituencies of 20,000 to 30,000 electorate. But by and large, it has been a diligent vote that has been dominating Goan politics, unlike the rest of India.
The rise and fall of the BJP is a clear indicator of this phenomenon, which Parrikar had realised. He had thus skilfully shifted his focus from hard Hindutva to soft Hindutva to Good Governance in a desperate attempt to win over the liberal voter of Goa. After making a debut in 1994 with four MLAs, the BJP rose to 10 in 1999 (by breaking alliance with the MGP at the last minute) and jumped to 18 in 2002. However, Parrikar’s attempts to form the government with splinter groups led by the likes of Francisco Sardinha pushed him down to 14 seats in 2007.
Who won the 2017 poll?
Parrikar could reach the magic figure of 21 only in 2012, when even the Church was disgusted with the Congress and the Hindutva party got seven Christian MLAs elected. The Congress, for the first time in three decades, was pushed down to single digit (nine seats) by Goa’s conscientious voter.
In spite of infrastructural development for Goa’s dominant middle class and social schemes for the have-nots, in 2017, however, Parrikar got the shock of his life. The Congress, in spite of incompetence and infightings, rose to 17 while BJP was pushed down to 13. That too with seven Christian MLAs, three Congressmen – Mauvin Godinho, Pandurang Madkaikar and Pravin
Bandodkar was the real architect of the Hindu - Christian Bahujan Formula. Manohar Parrikar could sit in the saddle only when he also chanted the same political mantra
Zantye, who had joined BJP on the eve of the polls and one rebel Rajesh Patnekar. The original BJP men were only Dr Pramod Sawant, Milind Naik and Sidharth Kuncalienker (replaced later with Parrikar).
It must be for the first time in the history of a Hindutva party like the BJP that had majority MLAs belonging to the minorities and the so-called majority community was a ‘minority’. Strange Goa’s politics is! Was it only because of the shrewd strategy of the Church to support all community candidates of the BJP (with the exception of Nilesh Cabral) and support the Congress candidates elsewhere? Was it also because of the rebel RSS camp succeeding in defeating the BJP candidates by supporting any winning candidate against the BJP? Or was it again only the conscience vote? Who won the 2017 Poll? The parties? The Church? The rebel RSS camp? Or the conscientious voter? These questions still await a thorough analysis.
The BJP Govt of Congress
If we go strictly by the voting pattern of March 2017 (and not the by-elections held after BJP snatched power with the help of MGP, Goa Forward and independents), Dr Pramod Sawant’s government is today dominated by the defectors, opportunists and non-BJP political businessmen (and women), either by joining the party or supporting it from outside.
What is the hidden reality of the ‘Strong’ ruling party having 27 MLAs today? 13 among them have split from the Congress, two from the MGP, which means more than half are a threat to the hard-working BJP cadres in 15 constituencies. Independent Govind Gaude is part of the government. Again, 15 of them belong to the minorities while Narendra Modi government at the Centre is vehemently imposing the Hindutva agenda all over India and hate politics has reached its nadir. On the other hand, the rest of the parties and independent legislators have fully exposed their opportunistic and non-ideological behaviour, may it be the MGP, Goa Forward, the NCP (one Churchill Alemao) or the ‘independents’ like Rohan Khaunte and Prasad Gaonkar. None of them have left any respect in the minds of the conscientious voter of Goa, which is a majority.
Politics is growing Young!
Precisely due to their opportunistic deeds, none of the MLAs are actually confident of facing the electorate. In the last 10 years, the voter has also changed substantially. Young voters are becoming more and more dominant.
Over 70 per cent are in the age group of 18 to 50. In 2012, almost half of the voters were in the age group of 18 to 35. Today this age group is below 40 per cent. However, the mindset of this youngster is much different from yesterday’s youth, especially the first or second time voters. They don’t think traditionally. And a large chunk of the 2012 voters today fall in the age group up to 50. They were the game changers then and are a confident lot that they can bring a change. This group is a real challenge in 2022 for all the parties.
The ground realities
Let us now come to practically what is happening on the ground. The ruling BJP is literally divided into three major groups: 1) The non-BJP Congressmen and MGP men and women, 2) The old committed cadres of the BJP and 3) The cadres sidelined in the present government after Parrikar’s demise. The Covid mis-management has hit the ruling party severely, especially in the second wave where each Goan has lost their kin and kith; many due to lack of oxygen. The news is making rounds that the survey reports are not favourable in a smaller State like Goa and even a bigger State like UP. After the visit of observer B L Santhosh, the BJP leaders are now exploring the possibility of pre-poll alliance with like-minded parties.
Congress, the second party which can form the government, is literally in shambles. While losing over two third of their elected colleagues to the BJP, the remaining old guards are at loggerheads with the young brigade on the basic issue of taking over the reins of the organisation. Two major issues that the party is confused over: 1) Whether to readmit the ‘winnable’ MLAs who want to shift over from the BJP and 2) Whether to align with smaller parties, especially Goa Forward, which has developed a villianish image among the sizeable number of voters of Salcete, Mormugao and Tiswadi. New vigour or the same old tactics is the question presently haunting Congress.
Since the majority in the Congress seems to be opposed to re-admission of defectors, many of these 13 neosaffrons are trying for a backdoor entry by joining the Nationalist Congress
AGE GROUP 2012 2017 2022
18-35 46 40 38 36-50 32 32 34 51-70 23 27 30 71 & Above 5 9 13
18-50 77 72 71
PERCENTAGE OF AGE-WISE VOTERS: 2012 TO 2022
Party, which is presently represented by a sole legislator Churchill Alemao. He is more close to the BJP than the Congress. But the decision to align or not would finally be decided by its supremo Sharad Pawar in Delhi.
The MGP as well as the GFP are obviously not in a position to form the government. They are thus negotiating whom to join hands with so that they could have a slice of the cake. While being left with a sole Madkai constituency of Sudin Dhavalikar, the MGP is still projecting seven other constituencies as their strongholds: 1) Pedne and 2) Sanvordem (Babu Azgaonkar and Dipak Pauskar joined the BJP), 3) Mandrem, 4) Ponda, 5), Shiroda, 6) Dabolim and 7) Priol of party president Dipak Dhavalikar. As more than half of these constituencies are directly clashing with the BJP bastions, the MGP is left with only two choices: a) Either have a prepoll alliance with the Congress and get more than three seats or b) Go alone while winning over frustrated and sidelined BJP cadres on their side and align with anybody postelection, provided they get enough seats to negotiate their share in power. Comparatively, Goa Forward is in a real pathetic condition. In spite of repeated public appeals made by GFP leaders to finalise the pre-poll alliance, the Congress is still not paying heed, not knowing whether the ‘backstabbers’ (as they are termed by a section of public) would be an asset or a liability. Besides three existing seats of Fatorda, Saligao and Siolim, the party has also admitted other ‘influential’ leaders - with a promise to give them tickets - in Tivim, Aldona, Ponda, Pedne, Mandrem, St Andre and Mayem. The count is 10. The Congress thus simply cannot join hands with all the three ‘fence sitters’ as it would lose over 20 seats to the NCP, the MGP and the GFP. Is the ‘big brother’ Congress in a position to win rest of the 15-20 seats out of 40 when many of these seats are in the BJP strongholds? Obviously, the national party will have to choose between the partners in order to hold their supremacy over the alliance, if at all they go for it.
Then comes the new entrants like Aam Aadmi Party and the Revolutionary Goans, who have started showing their presence in some pockets of Goa. Though AAP this time has enough money power to distribute free oximeters and ration, it continues facing identity crisis due to lack of popular faces to win over the young electorate. The Delhi-based party also has a new challenge of countering the fierce campaign that it is the B team of the BJP, which would do nothing but split the non-BJP votes.
It also needs to be seen if the emotional fervour of the RG is converted into Uzzo of votes when one such experiment called ‘Gomant Lok Pokx’ in 1989 was a big flop! Out of 11 seats that the GLP contested, they lost deposits in seven constituencies and could not garner more than 11.67% votes. That too, after having the working class, ‘Reinder’ and ‘Ramponkar’ with them; besides their populist slogan ‘Goa for Goans’ and long-time social activists like Adv. Amrut Kansar, Erasmo Sequeira, Victoria Fernandes and Matanhy Saldanha as the leaders. In a nutshell, no political party is in a position to go alone. All are handicapped, with too much baggage on their backs. Crutches are a must. And no crutch is reliable. Complete mistrust prevails across the political spectrum and politicians. No doubt it’s a Herculean task for any political party to win the election single-handedly. But it is also a real challenge for the wise voter of Goa; whom to vote, on what basis, for whom and what for
Best Compliments Rtn SHARAD PAI
